January 16, 2023 - 2:00pm
The third world war has already started, according to one of France’s leading intellectuals, Emmanuel Todd. Speaking to Le Figaro last week, the anthropologist and historian claimed that, contrary to the prevailing idea that Russia has more to lose than its liberal opponents, the West, too, has entered into an “existential” conflict.
“It’s obvious that the [Ukraine] conflict, which started as a limited territorial war and escalated to a global economic confrontation between the whole of the West on the one hand and Russia and China on the other hand, has become a world war,” Todd told the French newspaper. He acknowledged that Vladimir Putin had made a miscalculation at the beginning of the conflict, assuming that Ukraine would roll over at the first sign of aggression, but made clear that Russia has itself exceeded expectations, including those of its own people, who “did not anticipate” that they would be able to withstand economic pressure from NATO.
Todd, who has in the past been critical of the western international order, wrote a book called After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order more than 20 years ago. During the interview, he expanded on his thesis, saying that “the resistance of the Russian economy [to sanctions] is pushing the American imperial system towards the precipice.” He added that, if Russia “managed to exhaust the European economy, while maintaining Chinese backing, American monetary and financial controls of the world would collapse, and with them the possibility for the United States to fund their huge trade deficit for nothing.”
The historian largely agreed with the analysis of the international relations professor and proponent of ‘realist’ foreign policy John Mearsheimer that “from their point of view, the Russians are in a war that is defensive and preventive […] Because this is an existential question for them, they will strike back harder.” However, Todd suggested that his American counterpart “overestimates his country” in thinking that the US sees their involvement in Ukraine as “one game of power among others” and that the long-held belief of American exceptionalism is unjustified.
“No more than Russia, [America] cannot withdraw from the conflict, they cannot let go,” Todd claimed, “This is why we are now in an endless war, in a confrontation whose outcome must be the collapse of one or the other.” The additional prospect of China waging a cold war against the West will lead to the rise of developing countries like India, according to the French thinker, while Europe declines.
Despite the US being twice as populated as Russia, Todd said, only 7% of American students focus on engineering, compared to 25% in Russia. “The US fills the gap with foreign students, but they’re mainly Indians and even more Chinese,” he went on, “It is a dilemma of the American economy: it can only face competition from China by importing skilled Chinese labour.”
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SubscribeThis is now a real dilemma for the West. I can’t speak for the US but in the UK we really need to stop taxpayer-backed student loans for non-STEM subjects except for the very brightest students. Unless you are a straight A student, subjects like economics, psychology, English lit or history shouldn’t be undergraduate options. We should be funneling B- and C-grade students into engineering courses (ideally degree apprenticeships). We need lots of technically literate home-grown graduates, we don’t need that many sociologists.
No. We need A grade students doing engineering. And staying in engineering after graduating, rather than going into the City.
If it’s important, you want the very best students doing the subject.
That is also true. Of course you want to encourage the bright ones to choose engineering. And hopefully the rewards will follow keeping them out of the clutches of the quants.
But you don’t need to be a stellar mind to become a civil engineer or a software developer. You just need to be encouraged (forced) to spend a few years studying those courses rather than Peace Studies or whatever
You do need a stellar mind to be a stellar civil engineer or software developer though. And the difference between best and average in these fields is enormous.
So yes, we need more entrants at all levels. But it needs to be a high prestige activity attracting the brightest students in order to draw in more students.
Good luck “forcing” people to do engineering. Not going to work. There are easier options for people who want an easier life. You can’t bluff your way in engineering either – you need to produce stuff and it needs to work. And you get caught out fairly quickly if it doesn’t.
I am very impressed by the current government Apprenticeship schemes. There are a number of entry points from age 16 to undergraduate. These are often for engineering firms. And they are proving very popular – many chose not to go to uni this autumn but took a degree apprenticeship instead. I think this process could be turbocharged with the funding changes outlined above – no loans for arts or humanities degree courses unless you get say AAB at A level. The options at 18 for the less bright would be a STEM degree, am apprenticeship or a job.
Apprenticeships are necessary and helpful. But certainly not sufficient. I do agree that one of the big changes since I started work in the 1980s is the huge decline in employer investment in training.
STEM is at least as academically demanding as other subjects. One of the toughest courses at Cambridge and absolutely not a soft option.
Marketing it as the choice for the less bright is precisely the wrong way to go.
1) It isn’t
2) You won’t get the people you really need applying
I don’t know why you keep suggesting it. Perhaps you’ve never worked in engineering ?
The “less bright” are not going to do STEM, don’t be daft. That’s science, technology, engineering and mathematics- the toughest degrees.
People are speaking at cross purposes here. One can work ‘in engineering’ without being an engineer, in the same way that the teller in your local branch of Barclays works ‘in banking’ but isn’t – by any normal definition of the term – a banker. In languages where it’s more obvious that the etymology of the term for ‘engineer’ puts it in the same semantic family as ‘ingenious’, rather than ‘engine’ (French ‘ingénieur’, Italian ‘ingegnere’, Spanish ‘ingeniero’…), you’ll never hear technicians being referred to as engineers but in English the sloppiness is easier to understand. In England particularly, having a screwdriver in your utility belt seems to be enough to get you called an engineer.
People are speaking at cross purposes here. One can work ‘in engineering’ without being an engineer, in the same way that the teller in your local branch of Barclays works ‘in banking’ but isn’t – by any normal definition of the term – a banker. In languages where it’s more obvious that the etymology of the term for ‘engineer’ puts it in the same semantic family as ‘ingenious’, rather than ‘engine’ (French ‘ingénieur’, Italian ‘ingegnere’, Spanish ‘ingeniero’…), you’ll never hear technicians being referred to as engineers but in English the sloppiness is easier to understand. In England particularly, having a screwdriver in your utility belt seems to be enough to get you called an engineer.
Apprenticeships are necessary and helpful. But certainly not sufficient. I do agree that one of the big changes since I started work in the 1980s is the huge decline in employer investment in training.
STEM is at least as academically demanding as other subjects. One of the toughest courses at Cambridge and absolutely not a soft option.
Marketing it as the choice for the less bright is precisely the wrong way to go.
1) It isn’t
2) You won’t get the people you really need applying
I don’t know why you keep suggesting it. Perhaps you’ve never worked in engineering ?
The “less bright” are not going to do STEM, don’t be daft. That’s science, technology, engineering and mathematics- the toughest degrees.
“You do need a stellar mind to be a stellar civil engineer or software developer though.”
No, you really don’t, I’m one.
I am very impressed by the current government Apprenticeship schemes. There are a number of entry points from age 16 to undergraduate. These are often for engineering firms. And they are proving very popular – many chose not to go to uni this autumn but took a degree apprenticeship instead. I think this process could be turbocharged with the funding changes outlined above – no loans for arts or humanities degree courses unless you get say AAB at A level. The options at 18 for the less bright would be a STEM degree, am apprenticeship or a job.
“You do need a stellar mind to be a stellar civil engineer or software developer though.”
No, you really don’t, I’m one.
Do you have any idea how much harder and demanding an engineering degree is than than say, sociology, English or history.
The fact is that we do not have too many people bright enough or with the application to do an engineering degree. 40/50 years ago about 5 of school leaves went on to university. We as a nation have not become more intelligent in the intervening years standards have simply been lowered
You do need a stellar mind to be a stellar civil engineer or software developer though. And the difference between best and average in these fields is enormous.
So yes, we need more entrants at all levels. But it needs to be a high prestige activity attracting the brightest students in order to draw in more students.
Good luck “forcing” people to do engineering. Not going to work. There are easier options for people who want an easier life. You can’t bluff your way in engineering either – you need to produce stuff and it needs to work. And you get caught out fairly quickly if it doesn’t.
Do you have any idea how much harder and demanding an engineering degree is than than say, sociology, English or history.
The fact is that we do not have too many people bright enough or with the application to do an engineering degree. 40/50 years ago about 5 of school leaves went on to university. We as a nation have not become more intelligent in the intervening years standards have simply been lowered
I think the issue here is the meaning of the term ‘engineer’, which in England (although it’s spreading to Ireland too, unfortunately, at least in everyday speech) is used to refer to both engineers and technicians, including technicians operating at a very basic level. (“We’re waiting for the engineer to come to change the printer cartridge”, for example.) I’m assuming that the 7% figure refers to actual engineers.
Oh dear, it’s the engineers in our neck of the wood who are mad keen on cement everywhere, kerbing and guttering all over – does terrible things to lake-edge life. They form a separate department of our local council and seem to have no input from the rest.
That is also true. Of course you want to encourage the bright ones to choose engineering. And hopefully the rewards will follow keeping them out of the clutches of the quants.
But you don’t need to be a stellar mind to become a civil engineer or a software developer. You just need to be encouraged (forced) to spend a few years studying those courses rather than Peace Studies or whatever
I think the issue here is the meaning of the term ‘engineer’, which in England (although it’s spreading to Ireland too, unfortunately, at least in everyday speech) is used to refer to both engineers and technicians, including technicians operating at a very basic level. (“We’re waiting for the engineer to come to change the printer cartridge”, for example.) I’m assuming that the 7% figure refers to actual engineers.
Oh dear, it’s the engineers in our neck of the wood who are mad keen on cement everywhere, kerbing and guttering all over – does terrible things to lake-edge life. They form a separate department of our local council and seem to have no input from the rest.
You have to pat us on the back here in the USA though…we’re tops in Gender and Queer Studies, Black Studies, Women Studies, etc….and we’ve gone one better by employing these grads in the 80,000 DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion) jobs throughout the country. Who needs more engineering jobs? Always trying to remain ahead : )
Ah, but those lucrative DEI jobs do produce ideological purity. Think of them as the gatekeepers to our future. Who will receive grants and funding? Who gets to decide who and what will advance and what will get left behind?
Perhaps, but what I’ve seen and heard so far…not so sure about their ‘power’. You can only promote ‘stupid’ for so long and succeed as a business or even a country, a civilization.
Perhaps, but what I’ve seen and heard so far…not so sure about their ‘power’. You can only promote ‘stupid’ for so long and succeed as a business or even a country, a civilization.
Ah, but those lucrative DEI jobs do produce ideological purity. Think of them as the gatekeepers to our future. Who will receive grants and funding? Who gets to decide who and what will advance and what will get left behind?
The issue here is not getting people to do engineering at university, it’s a step earlier – we need more students taking A-level maths, which is a prerequisite for engineering degrees. I worked in a UK engineering department for decades, and the recruitment problem across the discipline was that without more sixth formers taking A-level maths, the available recruitment pool was too small and it’s too late to do anything about it.
No. We need A grade students doing engineering. And staying in engineering after graduating, rather than going into the City.
If it’s important, you want the very best students doing the subject.
You have to pat us on the back here in the USA though…we’re tops in Gender and Queer Studies, Black Studies, Women Studies, etc….and we’ve gone one better by employing these grads in the 80,000 DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion) jobs throughout the country. Who needs more engineering jobs? Always trying to remain ahead : )
The issue here is not getting people to do engineering at university, it’s a step earlier – we need more students taking A-level maths, which is a prerequisite for engineering degrees. I worked in a UK engineering department for decades, and the recruitment problem across the discipline was that without more sixth formers taking A-level maths, the available recruitment pool was too small and it’s too late to do anything about it.
This is now a real dilemma for the West. I can’t speak for the US but in the UK we really need to stop taxpayer-backed student loans for non-STEM subjects except for the very brightest students. Unless you are a straight A student, subjects like economics, psychology, English lit or history shouldn’t be undergraduate options. We should be funneling B- and C-grade students into engineering courses (ideally degree apprenticeships). We need lots of technically literate home-grown graduates, we don’t need that many sociologists.
Emmanuel Todd is one of the very few living world class French intellectuals. And as a froggy, I am quite sad he had to go to Japan to get the status and recognition his talent deserves.
Back to the topic, I think his view on(the Ukraine War) is spot on, and quite frightening.
The writer McDonald-Frasier was discussed on Unherd, and from one of his books on Her Majesty’s Dirtiest Solder (Private MacAuslan) MacAuslin holds a French General at bayonet point with the great words, ‘I see you, you frog eating chancer’ when told to guard a gate, all assuming allied Generals would be allowed to pass by any sane HM Solder but forgetting to tell MacAuslan that……
Yes, the French have a pretty mixed past on politics, especially International Politics, and were pretty much wrong on every last single thing leading up to – and during – WWII, and very mixed on WWI – but they can also hit the nail on the head every so often..,.. And he is correct here.
The writer McDonald-Frasier was discussed on Unherd, and from one of his books on Her Majesty’s Dirtiest Solder (Private MacAuslan) MacAuslin holds a French General at bayonet point with the great words, ‘I see you, you frog eating chancer’ when told to guard a gate, all assuming allied Generals would be allowed to pass by any sane HM Solder but forgetting to tell MacAuslan that……
Yes, the French have a pretty mixed past on politics, especially International Politics, and were pretty much wrong on every last single thing leading up to – and during – WWII, and very mixed on WWI – but they can also hit the nail on the head every so often..,.. And he is correct here.
Emmanuel Todd is one of the very few living world class French intellectuals. And as a froggy, I am quite sad he had to go to Japan to get the status and recognition his talent deserves.
Back to the topic, I think his view on(the Ukraine War) is spot on, and quite frightening.
Peter Zeihan has an interesting perspective on the future global order. He sees China and Russia in a tremendously weak position going forward, driven largely by demographics. He sees the US and North America in a strong position, based largely on the natural resources and ag production of Canada and the US, and the labour of Mexico.
His perspective can be quite blinkered as well, but it serves as a reasonable counterpoint. In the end, all of it is speculation. Predictions are hard.
He’s irritating to listen to and rather predictable. But not wrong here.
I have warned of Zeihan – he is great fun to listen to, very convincing as he talks, you will learn things, but underneath his arguments are spurious projections. I think he is Agenda – ‘Controlled Opposition. The character he reminds me of is the little pig in Animal Farm who address all the animal’s concerns with total propaganda and untruth, wile doing a little of a swishing dance that makes him seem so nice and believable… very much Biden’s Zen Master Press Secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre.
I agree. He’s very convincing because he’s so confident in his predictions. Kinda like Paul Ehrlich that way. Lots of what he says about China is flat-out wrong, but he does serve as interesting foil to the constant doom and gloom about the west. We are riddled with problems here, but so is Russia and China.
I agree. He’s very convincing because he’s so confident in his predictions. Kinda like Paul Ehrlich that way. Lots of what he says about China is flat-out wrong, but he does serve as interesting foil to the constant doom and gloom about the west. We are riddled with problems here, but so is Russia and China.
My view is that Zeihan underestimates how much Russia and China can ratchet up their incentives to get more young women into motherhood in the next 30 years. Can they avoid the dip? no. Can they arrest and reverse it? Probably more than we can and that is the rub.
When Zeihan talks about demographics it seems his only focus is on the age profile
I think he’s a fool or a liar
Can Earth afford extra humans?
When Zeihan talks about demographics it seems his only focus is on the age profile
I think he’s a fool or a liar
Can Earth afford extra humans?
“Predictions are hard.”
Especially about the future.
He’s irritating to listen to and rather predictable. But not wrong here.
I have warned of Zeihan – he is great fun to listen to, very convincing as he talks, you will learn things, but underneath his arguments are spurious projections. I think he is Agenda – ‘Controlled Opposition. The character he reminds me of is the little pig in Animal Farm who address all the animal’s concerns with total propaganda and untruth, wile doing a little of a swishing dance that makes him seem so nice and believable… very much Biden’s Zen Master Press Secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre.
My view is that Zeihan underestimates how much Russia and China can ratchet up their incentives to get more young women into motherhood in the next 30 years. Can they avoid the dip? no. Can they arrest and reverse it? Probably more than we can and that is the rub.
“Predictions are hard.”
Especially about the future.
Peter Zeihan has an interesting perspective on the future global order. He sees China and Russia in a tremendously weak position going forward, driven largely by demographics. He sees the US and North America in a strong position, based largely on the natural resources and ag production of Canada and the US, and the labour of Mexico.
His perspective can be quite blinkered as well, but it serves as a reasonable counterpoint. In the end, all of it is speculation. Predictions are hard.
Spare us these useless left-wing French intellectuals. Have they ever done anything productive or useful ? Or even been right about anything ?
So this guy wrote a book 20 years ago claiming it’s all over for the USA. Wrong then. Still wrong now.
Ignorant too. The Chinese, Indian and other engineers who come to the US to work tend to stay. The US gets the best engineers from the global talent pool this way. Russia gets none – which engineer would possibly want to emigrate to Russia given all the other choices available. And what talented Russian engineer would wish to stay ? Their increasing technical isolation (withdrawal of all the Western technology companies, sanctions) plus the threat of conscription will just accelerate the talent exodus from Russia. They’re “voting with their feet” as a famous Russian once said (before locking the country down after gaining power so they couldn’t any more).
It’s not over for the USA. It’s certainly looking like it is for Russia though.
How do people like Todd and Polly Toynbee survive for decades drawing generour salaries when they never get anything right ?
Actually many go back – and it’s not guaranteed that they will always stay. Relying on this isn’t a viable long term strategy.
Believe me, the US has the best chip design teams in the world as a result of this policy. This only requires that they stay in the US for the most productive years of their working lives.
Many of these immigrant engineers are now also running US tech companies.
Other countries would queue up to have the “problems” the US is having recruiting top technical talent.
Believe me, the US has the best chip design teams in the world as a result of this policy. This only requires that they stay in the US for the most productive years of their working lives.
Many of these immigrant engineers are now also running US tech companies.
Other countries would queue up to have the “problems” the US is having recruiting top technical talent.
Todd supported Brexit, and argued back in 2016 that Boris Johnson had made himself the leader of “popular opposition” and would transform the Conservative Party’s electoral fortunes. Was he wrong about these things as well?
No dude…
The US is DONE… they are just living on borrowed time with the help of more money printing… having more advanced computer chips isn’t going to may difference for the reversal of US declining power and influence in the world… they got humiliated by the less technically advanced Taleban in Afghanistan not too long ago… Contrary to wishful thinking technical advances in the US have never made any difference as to weather the US is a better country today than yesterday… Americans use technology to stall progress in other areas that would make the world a better place today… more technology for the US is not better than less technology… it’s just a a false religion…. the American media made every effort to make America forget about it’s previous humiliation in Afghanistan… now they want you to believe that “Ukraine is winning” PR… from day one of this war…in that case Ukraine wouldn’t need weekly billion dollar package deals of weapons, and cash while the US has no bay formula … homless encampments everywhere, expensive heath care, mass shootings almost every week… the very reasons you consider the US to be a ‘success’are the very reasons it’s really a total failure…30 yrs ago many people wrote books and articles about the so called ‘demise’ of the US…but that actually happened a long time ago… what we’re really witnessing is the phase where Americans in general, are going to be forced to recognize they are no longer the so called world power that they used to be….the only thing keeping the US from believing it’s not over us their ability to print and manipulate financial structures in a good part of the world…in a large part of Euro Asia the world is saying goodbye to that system…no thanks to more dollar based trade…the dollar itself won’t just totally disappear overnight… but it will no longer be the only option… actually, in Asia the dollar break-up is happening right now….the trend of people studying in the US and staying there.. has been on a decline for fotat least half a decade … they still have a few select good schools… but it’s increasingly better to go to Europe, or China for advanced technical education if you are obsessed with the idea of who’s computer chips are better…
Actually many go back – and it’s not guaranteed that they will always stay. Relying on this isn’t a viable long term strategy.
Todd supported Brexit, and argued back in 2016 that Boris Johnson had made himself the leader of “popular opposition” and would transform the Conservative Party’s electoral fortunes. Was he wrong about these things as well?
No dude…
The US is DONE… they are just living on borrowed time with the help of more money printing… having more advanced computer chips isn’t going to may difference for the reversal of US declining power and influence in the world… they got humiliated by the less technically advanced Taleban in Afghanistan not too long ago… Contrary to wishful thinking technical advances in the US have never made any difference as to weather the US is a better country today than yesterday… Americans use technology to stall progress in other areas that would make the world a better place today… more technology for the US is not better than less technology… it’s just a a false religion…. the American media made every effort to make America forget about it’s previous humiliation in Afghanistan… now they want you to believe that “Ukraine is winning” PR… from day one of this war…in that case Ukraine wouldn’t need weekly billion dollar package deals of weapons, and cash while the US has no bay formula … homless encampments everywhere, expensive heath care, mass shootings almost every week… the very reasons you consider the US to be a ‘success’are the very reasons it’s really a total failure…30 yrs ago many people wrote books and articles about the so called ‘demise’ of the US…but that actually happened a long time ago… what we’re really witnessing is the phase where Americans in general, are going to be forced to recognize they are no longer the so called world power that they used to be….the only thing keeping the US from believing it’s not over us their ability to print and manipulate financial structures in a good part of the world…in a large part of Euro Asia the world is saying goodbye to that system…no thanks to more dollar based trade…the dollar itself won’t just totally disappear overnight… but it will no longer be the only option… actually, in Asia the dollar break-up is happening right now….the trend of people studying in the US and staying there.. has been on a decline for fotat least half a decade … they still have a few select good schools… but it’s increasingly better to go to Europe, or China for advanced technical education if you are obsessed with the idea of who’s computer chips are better…
Spare us these useless left-wing French intellectuals. Have they ever done anything productive or useful ? Or even been right about anything ?
So this guy wrote a book 20 years ago claiming it’s all over for the USA. Wrong then. Still wrong now.
Ignorant too. The Chinese, Indian and other engineers who come to the US to work tend to stay. The US gets the best engineers from the global talent pool this way. Russia gets none – which engineer would possibly want to emigrate to Russia given all the other choices available. And what talented Russian engineer would wish to stay ? Their increasing technical isolation (withdrawal of all the Western technology companies, sanctions) plus the threat of conscription will just accelerate the talent exodus from Russia. They’re “voting with their feet” as a famous Russian once said (before locking the country down after gaining power so they couldn’t any more).
It’s not over for the USA. It’s certainly looking like it is for Russia though.
How do people like Todd and Polly Toynbee survive for decades drawing generour salaries when they never get anything right ?
A western intellectual predicting the end of the West, how passe…
Much like Churchill in ‘The Wilderness Years’, 1929s and 30s, wile he watched Germany falling into chaos under the insanely punitive Versailles Treaty, and then Hit Ler building his forces for the inevitable WWII that ALL Governments in France and Britain (and USA) Refused to see and act wile it would have been so easy – on till the ‘Gathering Storm’ he endlessly predicted broke on the world with the invasion into Poland, and WWII.
I come here and rant on the HUGE self harm the West is doing to its self and the entire world with its Proxy way against Russia (aside from totally destroying Ukraine in the process), a self harm so huge it is existential, but the neo-Con sheep here all just say more and more doubling down of this insanity is needed. More killing, more weapons, more sanctions……
Yes – this very much could be the breaking of the West – our system will not recover as it once was – EU may become second world. USA will be OK as it always is after World Wars, as an entire continent with the resources of Canada and the industrial might of Mexico – but Europe – you may have destroyed yourself in the Pointless WWIII you allowed Biden to create. His mini-me Boris has destroyed UK, and now Boris’s Mini-me Sunak has taken up the reins of self destruction to plow the same furrow…..
The Versailles treaty wasn’t nearly as ‘insanely punitive’ as the one Germany inflicted on Russia only months earlier. That treaty, Brest-Litovsk, took away a million square miles, 55 million people, and most of Russia’s industry, being described by Lenin as “that abyss of defeat, dismemberment, enslavement and humiliation.”
Biden didn’t start this war, Putin did. Seeing Russia defang itself is good; and Ukraine may well come out of this conflict with a much stronger sense of itself as a nation.
The West is destroying itself by spending Trillions in the belief that CO2, released by fossil fuel, is destroying the planet. Net Zero is the biggest con Western civilisation came up to deindustrialise and destroy itself. Most of the rest of the World will continue their industrialisation and prosper. The boycott of Russian gas and oil is mostly Europe’s self destruction as it marches from one energy crisis to the next. Russia eventually will get some kind of peace treaty ( don’t think DeSantis or any other GOP president will be particularly interested in prolonging the war) and probably gain some regions in the Ukrainian East. There it will gain even more natural resources, which it will be able to sell to the highest bidder.
Hopefully the US under a new government will come to her senses and recognise that Net Zero is a total pie in the sky.
So the USA, France and Britain were wrong not to act sooner against Adolf, but are also wrong now to act against Putin. How very confusing!
That only works if putin is a reincarnation of hitler. Not every dictator is hitler.
nor Napoleon for that matter.
nor Napoleon for that matter.
That only works if putin is a reincarnation of hitler. Not every dictator is hitler.
From my perspective, and I’m mid age, society here in the USA is in decline. Flight issues, supply issues, customer service, crime, woke as a religion, open southern border which will exacerbate demographic replacement; all indications that we are headed for a lot of unpleasantness.
The Versailles treaty wasn’t nearly as ‘insanely punitive’ as the one Germany inflicted on Russia only months earlier. That treaty, Brest-Litovsk, took away a million square miles, 55 million people, and most of Russia’s industry, being described by Lenin as “that abyss of defeat, dismemberment, enslavement and humiliation.”
Biden didn’t start this war, Putin did. Seeing Russia defang itself is good; and Ukraine may well come out of this conflict with a much stronger sense of itself as a nation.
The West is destroying itself by spending Trillions in the belief that CO2, released by fossil fuel, is destroying the planet. Net Zero is the biggest con Western civilisation came up to deindustrialise and destroy itself. Most of the rest of the World will continue their industrialisation and prosper. The boycott of Russian gas and oil is mostly Europe’s self destruction as it marches from one energy crisis to the next. Russia eventually will get some kind of peace treaty ( don’t think DeSantis or any other GOP president will be particularly interested in prolonging the war) and probably gain some regions in the Ukrainian East. There it will gain even more natural resources, which it will be able to sell to the highest bidder.
Hopefully the US under a new government will come to her senses and recognise that Net Zero is a total pie in the sky.
So the USA, France and Britain were wrong not to act sooner against Adolf, but are also wrong now to act against Putin. How very confusing!
From my perspective, and I’m mid age, society here in the USA is in decline. Flight issues, supply issues, customer service, crime, woke as a religion, open southern border which will exacerbate demographic replacement; all indications that we are headed for a lot of unpleasantness.
Rather, a French intellectual. They’re two a penny, with scarcely a brain between them all.
Much like Churchill in ‘The Wilderness Years’, 1929s and 30s, wile he watched Germany falling into chaos under the insanely punitive Versailles Treaty, and then Hit Ler building his forces for the inevitable WWII that ALL Governments in France and Britain (and USA) Refused to see and act wile it would have been so easy – on till the ‘Gathering Storm’ he endlessly predicted broke on the world with the invasion into Poland, and WWII.
I come here and rant on the HUGE self harm the West is doing to its self and the entire world with its Proxy way against Russia (aside from totally destroying Ukraine in the process), a self harm so huge it is existential, but the neo-Con sheep here all just say more and more doubling down of this insanity is needed. More killing, more weapons, more sanctions……
Yes – this very much could be the breaking of the West – our system will not recover as it once was – EU may become second world. USA will be OK as it always is after World Wars, as an entire continent with the resources of Canada and the industrial might of Mexico – but Europe – you may have destroyed yourself in the Pointless WWIII you allowed Biden to create. His mini-me Boris has destroyed UK, and now Boris’s Mini-me Sunak has taken up the reins of self destruction to plow the same furrow…..
Rather, a French intellectual. They’re two a penny, with scarcely a brain between them all.
A western intellectual predicting the end of the West, how passe…
A French intellectual criticising the US, who would have thunk it! I’d have been more impressed if you’d managed to find a French intellectual who had a positive view of the west to be honest.
So there’s no mention from him about the sanctions hurting Russias ability to import parts for sophisticated weapons, gas prices dropping from their record highs, the hundreds of thousands of young Russian graduates that fled at the first mobilisation, Chinas demographic ageing time bomb, its property bubble that looks likely burst in the near future or its struggles to get their hands on semi conductors due to American restrictions?
Despite the problems facing western nations, I don’t see many people risking their lives to make perilous journeys to try and get into Russia or China, and I’d wager the western nations between them are capable of funding the Ukrainians longer than the Kremlin and Russian economy can fund the Russian war effort, not to mention the US equipment in particular seems light years ahead of that available to the Russians.
Billy, I know we have always been 99% at odds in beliefs on the world, and philosophy, but if you have an hour try watching this video from Del Bigtree, who is a Legit Newsman, but Right leaning, and into conspiracies (which some of us call truth) I posted it last night – Jordan Peterson has one with this guest too – Yan, who is an ex-Green Barrett – a global traveling war correspondent who has his main interest in Famine, Pandemic, and War, which he says are always joined. It is an hour well spent, even if you disregard what he says – he really does go to the most dangerous places on Earth, and has for decades – speaks many languages, and writes books in Japanese, and reads endlessly – give it a watch to get the ‘AntiAgenda’. He says time to worry about the total collapse in the world.
https://rumble.com/v24rl6w-on-the-frontlines-global-famine-is-coming.html
Does he offer any solutions for us rubes?
Does he offer any solutions for us rubes?
The Chinese haven’t really suffered from the restrictions yet. The demographic ageing time bomb is as true, or more true, in the west. The US needs immigrants to maintain its population, as does Europe. Russia has actually survived the sanctions and the equipment the Russians have been using is old Soviet issue equipment so far. Their missile defense is considered top notch.
Billy, I know we have always been 99% at odds in beliefs on the world, and philosophy, but if you have an hour try watching this video from Del Bigtree, who is a Legit Newsman, but Right leaning, and into conspiracies (which some of us call truth) I posted it last night – Jordan Peterson has one with this guest too – Yan, who is an ex-Green Barrett – a global traveling war correspondent who has his main interest in Famine, Pandemic, and War, which he says are always joined. It is an hour well spent, even if you disregard what he says – he really does go to the most dangerous places on Earth, and has for decades – speaks many languages, and writes books in Japanese, and reads endlessly – give it a watch to get the ‘AntiAgenda’. He says time to worry about the total collapse in the world.
https://rumble.com/v24rl6w-on-the-frontlines-global-famine-is-coming.html
The Chinese haven’t really suffered from the restrictions yet. The demographic ageing time bomb is as true, or more true, in the west. The US needs immigrants to maintain its population, as does Europe. Russia has actually survived the sanctions and the equipment the Russians have been using is old Soviet issue equipment so far. Their missile defense is considered top notch.
A French intellectual criticising the US, who would have thunk it! I’d have been more impressed if you’d managed to find a French intellectual who had a positive view of the west to be honest.
So there’s no mention from him about the sanctions hurting Russias ability to import parts for sophisticated weapons, gas prices dropping from their record highs, the hundreds of thousands of young Russian graduates that fled at the first mobilisation, Chinas demographic ageing time bomb, its property bubble that looks likely burst in the near future or its struggles to get their hands on semi conductors due to American restrictions?
Despite the problems facing western nations, I don’t see many people risking their lives to make perilous journeys to try and get into Russia or China, and I’d wager the western nations between them are capable of funding the Ukrainians longer than the Kremlin and Russian economy can fund the Russian war effort, not to mention the US equipment in particular seems light years ahead of that available to the Russians.
Time to get back to the Freedom Fries!
From what we’re reading, it doesn’t look as if Russian engineering is getting an advantage from those 25% of students. In my opinion there is too much guff about the big powers and not enough focus on the real difference in this conflict: Ukraine itself. They are really fighting for their lives; the Russian existentialism is imperial folly.
They are fighting for their lives so effectively 8 Million are refugees and 200,000 dead, and lots more death coming – as Biden is willing to fight to the last Ukrainian standing…….
If the Ukrainians didn’t want to fight they could surrender tomorrow, but they don’t. To them they still prefer to push back against the Russians and deem the deaths to be a smaller price to pay than Russian subjugation. Why do you always ignore the free will of those Ukrainians?
If the Ukrainians didn’t want to fight they could surrender tomorrow, but they don’t. To them they still prefer to push back against the Russians and deem the deaths to be a smaller price to pay than Russian subjugation. Why do you always ignore the free will of those Ukrainians?
They are fighting for their lives so effectively 8 Million are refugees and 200,000 dead, and lots more death coming – as Biden is willing to fight to the last Ukrainian standing…….
Time to get back to the Freedom Fries!
From what we’re reading, it doesn’t look as if Russian engineering is getting an advantage from those 25% of students. In my opinion there is too much guff about the big powers and not enough focus on the real difference in this conflict: Ukraine itself. They are really fighting for their lives; the Russian existentialism is imperial folly.
Nah.
Nah.
All very dramatic, but unrealistic. It would mean economic suicide for China to ‘wage a cold war against the west’.
Equally, another possibility is that Putin dies, which would bring about an end to the conflict.
If Putin dies, why would the conflict end? Maybe it will. Maybe some nuttier guy takes his place.
I agree though, while the article offers and interesting and thoughtful perspective, it does seem a bit dramatic and undervalues some real domestic issues facing countries like China and Russia.
I might be wrong, but I’m very much under the impression that the majority of the Russian people aren’t behind Putin’s war against Ukraine.
Yes, you are indeed wrong. The Ukraine war is seen by Russian sources as NATO trying to smother Russia and pillage it.
Did you get paid for that comment ?
… because that is what they are told with no dissenting voices allowed! NATO is a defensive alliance, defending against Russian imperialism! Russia is being pillaged by its own oligarchs, not by NATO.
NATO defended them selves very well in Kosovo, and Iraq, and Afghanistan, and Libya, and…..
HaHa – I posted on how Na to defended themselves in half a dozen wars lately – and the comment got sent to moderation – that tarpit almost none manage to be dragged from….the Mod-swamp as it were.
Awaiting for approval, Awaiting for approval, Awaiting for approval, Awaiting for approval, Awaiting for approval………………
It’s a defensive alliance that has no reason to exist
Current events prove the very opposite!
Current events prove the very opposite!
NATO defended them selves very well in Kosovo, and Iraq, and Afghanistan, and Libya, and…..
HaHa – I posted on how Na to defended themselves in half a dozen wars lately – and the comment got sent to moderation – that tarpit almost none manage to be dragged from….the Mod-swamp as it were.
Awaiting for approval, Awaiting for approval, Awaiting for approval, Awaiting for approval, Awaiting for approval………………
It’s a defensive alliance that has no reason to exist
How do you actually know this ? I suggest you are both speculating. Remember Adlai Setvenson’s quote that “a free country is one in which it is safe to be unpopular”. So opinions expressed in Russia are unlikely to be very reliable.
I suppose we’ll simply gloss over the large protests that were violently suppressed, and the mass emigration of fighting age men from Russia then?
Probably in the same social class as ours that didn’t want to go to Vietnam. A similar situation would be worse today; they aren’t hitting their recruiting goals as it is. What you aren’t hearing is the same thing is happening in Ukraine.
Probably in the same social class as ours that didn’t want to go to Vietnam. A similar situation would be worse today; they aren’t hitting their recruiting goals as it is. What you aren’t hearing is the same thing is happening in Ukraine.
No, but I have worked with Western European human resource departments that are inundated by Russians looking for work visas to get out of the country.
Besides, why on earth would I get paid to suggest that Putin’s war may be unpopular with his own people?
… because that is what they are told with no dissenting voices allowed! NATO is a defensive alliance, defending against Russian imperialism! Russia is being pillaged by its own oligarchs, not by NATO.
How do you actually know this ? I suggest you are both speculating. Remember Adlai Setvenson’s quote that “a free country is one in which it is safe to be unpopular”. So opinions expressed in Russia are unlikely to be very reliable.
I suppose we’ll simply gloss over the large protests that were violently suppressed, and the mass emigration of fighting age men from Russia then?
No, but I have worked with Western European human resource departments that are inundated by Russians looking for work visas to get out of the country.
Besides, why on earth would I get paid to suggest that Putin’s war may be unpopular with his own people?
I was also under the impression that the war didn’t have widespread support amongst the Russian people, with the early protests and the mass emigration following conscription.
It doesn’t really matter IMO, because the Russian people will likely have no input into the selection of the next leader.
Putin is popular in Russia, he wins elections, and he has support for the war.
… and he has total control of information and total control of so-called elections as well!
A bit like the US Democrat party then?
Oh snap!
Oh snap!
A bit like the US Democrat party then?
… and he has total control of information and total control of so-called elections as well!
Putin is popular in Russia, he wins elections, and he has support for the war.
Yes, you are indeed wrong. The Ukraine war is seen by Russian sources as NATO trying to smother Russia and pillage it.
Did you get paid for that comment ?
I was also under the impression that the war didn’t have widespread support amongst the Russian people, with the early protests and the mass emigration following conscription.
It doesn’t really matter IMO, because the Russian people will likely have no input into the selection of the next leader.
I might be wrong, but I’m very much under the impression that the majority of the Russian people aren’t behind Putin’s war against Ukraine.
Chinais economically as big as the US and set to be 2-4 times as big, demographics notwithstanding. There’s an economic Cold War coming anyway, and the west might lose out.
Chinas economy is no longer predicted to overtake the US. With its ageing demographic, looking property bubble and the west belatedly trying to move manufacturing away from China, it’s more likely to be overtaken by India than catch America
But you can’t ignore the demographics here ! The US population will continue to steadily increase and the Chinese to rapidly decrease.
It’s not homegrown and the majority of immigrants care nothing for our history of culture.
It’s not homegrown and the majority of immigrants care nothing for our history of culture.
I find it bizarre that someone else, the moderator, would edit your comment. In any case, there is no Cold War developing between China and the US. Certainly not in the cloak-and-dagger fashion seen during the Soviet Union days. However, what has happened is that the US launched an economic war on China once it saw China as a peer competitor. That war I believe, started under Trump.
Chinas economy is no longer predicted to overtake the US. With its ageing demographic, looking property bubble and the west belatedly trying to move manufacturing away from China, it’s more likely to be overtaken by India than catch America
But you can’t ignore the demographics here ! The US population will continue to steadily increase and the Chinese to rapidly decrease.
I find it bizarre that someone else, the moderator, would edit your comment. In any case, there is no Cold War developing between China and the US. Certainly not in the cloak-and-dagger fashion seen during the Soviet Union days. However, what has happened is that the US launched an economic war on China once it saw China as a peer competitor. That war I believe, started under Trump.
I wouldn’t be too sure about that. Douglas MacGregor says that there are hardliners waiting in the wings and they believe Putin has been too soft in his approach. It may just get worse. These things never go as anticipated…Libya anyone?
If Putin dies, why would the conflict end? Maybe it will. Maybe some nuttier guy takes his place.
I agree though, while the article offers and interesting and thoughtful perspective, it does seem a bit dramatic and undervalues some real domestic issues facing countries like China and Russia.
Chinais economically as big as the US and set to be 2-4 times as big, demographics notwithstanding. There’s an economic Cold War coming anyway, and the west might lose out.
I wouldn’t be too sure about that. Douglas MacGregor says that there are hardliners waiting in the wings and they believe Putin has been too soft in his approach. It may just get worse. These things never go as anticipated…Libya anyone?
All very dramatic, but unrealistic. It would mean economic suicide for China to ‘wage a cold war against the west’.
Equally, another possibility is that Putin dies, which would bring about an end to the conflict.
The last of a long line of French intellectuals predicting the triumph of Russia/the USSR.
Indeed, precisely the same old argument:
“By allying with China and the 3rd World, “Moscou” is certain to triumph.”
Simply warmed over Marxism/Leninism.
But I guess if they were wrong for 70 years, they must be right now.
The last of a long line of French intellectuals predicting the triumph of Russia/the USSR.
Indeed, precisely the same old argument:
“By allying with China and the 3rd World, “Moscou” is certain to triumph.”
Simply warmed over Marxism/Leninism.
But I guess if they were wrong for 70 years, they must be right now.