Donald Trump has now captured the presidency for a second time, while the Republican Party has taken back the Senate and looks on course to win the House of Representatives. Beyond these headlines, though, there may be many more beneficiaries of a Trump victory — and plenty of casualties, too.

Winners

1. The fossil fuel industry. Under Kamala Harris and a Democratic Congress, the now-thriving lords of oil and gas would have been facing a death sentence. Now, the Senate is sure to block any radical green policies, and perhaps the House as well. Given weakness in the marketplace and Republican hostility, green investors may have to find another line of work or move to Canada.
2. Red states. Their power will inevitably grow as jobs and people move there, notably to the South. There’s no chance that the high-tax states will gain back their émigrés, while policies encouraging manufacturing are likely to remain confined to the Sun Belt. This is manna from heaven for the growing coterie of young people in skilled trades, who may be the biggest winners of all, even as their professional rivals struggle. This election may also be a relief to communities on the US-Mexico border after Joe Biden’s administration failed to get a handle on immigration. Even Harris ended up calling for a border wall, and Trump now has the votes to make it happen.
3. Space travel and the military-industrial complex. By embracing tech mogul Elon Musk, the President-elect and his party have shown their openness to a new libertarian iteration of Silicon Valley. As SpaceX and much of the industry relocates largely to Florida and Texas, the Republicans will have many reasons to back more space spending. Similarly, the new wave of defence companies, such as Palantir and Anduril, can expect bigger contracts as the US rearms.
4. US-Israel relations. The Democrats have made a point of criticising Israel’s government, its leader Benjamin Netanyahu, and its military strategy. There is growing evidence of Iranian espionage influence in prominent DC circles which will stop with Trump. Yet while Israel may be happy with Trump’s return, so too might Russian President Vladimir Putin: cue the rekindling bromance.

Losers

1. The green industry. The walls are closing in on the whole Net Zero and renewable-centred energy plan. Wall Street is retreating from this sector and many companies are headed for oblivion. A GOP Senate and House will block any new gushers of green spending, and Trump could provide the potential coup de grâce.
2. Large dense cities in blue states. Many of these are struggling with homelessness and increased crime rates. The hope for urban cores has become based on climate policies that limit suburban and exurban development. They also depend on federal largesse for their transit systems. Yet ever fewer Americans ride the rails and most voters, for either party, prefer the exurbs and suburbs, even in places like California.
3. Iran. The more powerful the Republican Party, the worse it is for Iran. Not only will Congress be more hostile to this most dangerous of powers, but the White House is not likely to restrain Israel’s moves to destroy Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities.
4. China. Trump’s tariff policy could not come at a worse time, as Beijing’s economy is weakening amid rising unemployment and a devastated property market. However, while tariffs would be dreadful for China, they could also hurt working Americans through increased inflation.

Of course, President Trump may be blocked by a still-strong Democratic Congressional party and by the courts, including his own appointees. The good news is that, for all the hysteria, Americans will survive, and likely thrive — not because of our political class but despite it.

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Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute, the University of Texas at Austin.

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