As well as being a coup for Israel in an otherwise bloody campaign, it will doubtless have a profound effect on Hamas. However, it also puts the remaining hostages in fresh jeopardy.

While some hopeful analysts reckon that Sinwar’s death might allow for a recovery of the remaining Israelis held in Gaza, since he was reportedly more obstinate than other Hamas leaders in his demands, there are at the moment no ceasefire discussions ongoing, and it might be some time before they resume.

On Thursday, Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan was kidnapped on 7 October, told the media that “now more than ever the life of my son is in tangible danger”. The lack of clear leadership and desire for revenge might prompt some of the Hamas operatives still holding hostages to lash out.

In two statements yesterday, one in Hebrew and one in English, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the death of Sinwar “the beginning of the end”, stating that “the war can end tomorrow” if Hamas lays down its weapons and returns the hostages. He added that Israel will guarantee the safety of those who return hostages, but promised to hunt down those who continue to harbour kidnapped Israelis.

Nonetheless, given the limited success of recovering hostages by military means — thus far, only a handful have been recovered, compared to more than 100 released during the brief ceasefire last November — it is hard to see how Sinwar’s death will by itself improve this record. There are rumours that intelligence discovered on and around his body may reveal the whereabouts of some of the kidnapped, but they may have already been moved to new locations.

For their part, supporters of Hamas have stressed that the death of Sinwar, much like those of other leaders or the killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, will not serve as a “fatal blow” nor lead to the collapse of “the institution managing the battle”.

If there is no swift progress on the hostage situation, then given the recent US ultimatum — which threatened to withhold military supplies unless the humanitarian situation in northern Gaza improves — Netanyahu may use the death of Sinwar to wind down the campaign and declare victory against Hamas, even without returning the hostages. He may use the escalation of the conflict against Hezbollah and Iran to plead that he has new and more urgent priorities. Whatever else happens, we can be sure that Sinwar’s death will not be the final fatality in Gaza.

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David Swift is a historian and author. His next book, Scouse Republic, will be published in 2025.

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