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Hassan Nasrallah’s death could mark the end of Hezbollah

Hezbollah's secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated yesterday. Credit: Getty

September 28, 2024 - 7:15pm

Hezbollah has now confirmed that its secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in the Israeli airstrikes on the group’s headquarters in Dahiyeh yesterday.

Nasrallah’s demise is the culmination of an Israeli campaign, particularly intense over the past week, to cripple Hezbollah’s military and terrorism capacities. It has brought Hezbollah to its most vulnerable condition since its creation.

Contrary to the myth-making that Hezbollah emerged in 1982 as a “resistance” organisation against Israel’s invasion of Lebanon and became a “proxy” of Iran, in reality the group was created earlier. Indeed, it comprises an integral unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the vanguard of the Islamic Revolution that rules Iran. Nasrallah’s life history testifies to this.

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini forged a jihadist cadre on Lebanese territory in the late 1970s, with assistance from the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), and Nasrallah was part of this milieu. Some of these jihadists went back to Iran to lead the Revolution in 1978-79 and were labelled the IRGC. Those who stayed in Lebanon officially took the name Hezbollah in 1985.

Rising to the top of Hezbollah in 1992, Nasrallah’s department of the IRGC was the one Tehran often used in its international murder spree that decade, which included bombing Jewish targets as far away as Argentina and assassinating Iranian dissidents in Europe. The nature of the Islamic Revolution, a transnational jihadist network that recognises neither nationality nor borders, can be seen in Nasrallah having a senior IRGC officer, Abbas Nilforoushan, alongside him when he was killed.

For all the anger in the region against Israel over Gaza, many are celebrating Nasrallah’s demise, especially in Syria, where Hezbollah led the IRGC’s international jihad to rescue the Iran-dependent tyrant Bashar al-Assad. On the other hand, there is sorrow: the rapidity and relative ease of Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah demonstrates how little it would have taken, and how low the cost would have been, to spare the Syrians so much death and destruction.

The leading candidates to replace Nasrallah are Naim Qassem, the deputy secretary-general, and Hashem Safieddine, the head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council. But it is unclear if either will still be alive once Israel’s offensive has finished. Thousands of Hezbollah’s troops were incapacitated by Mossad’s exploding pagers and radios operation, and Israel’s relentless decapitation strikes have devastated Hezbollah’s leadership.

In just the last week, Israel has killed Ali Karaki, the effective military commander of Hezbollah after the rest of the Jihad Council (military executive committee) were eliminated; Talal Hamiyah, the leader of Hezbollah’s external operations; Ibrahim Qubaisi, the missile commander; and Muhammad Surur, the head of the drones unit.

Israel has said that returning the 70,000 people displaced from the north by Hezbollah’s missile attacks is a core war aim. That is only possible if Hezbollah is pushed away from the border. Eighteen years of diplomacy has failed to demilitarise the border area — and even with continued Israeli military pressure from the outside, it seems unlikely for political reasons Hezbollah will back down. If Israel chooses to secure this outcome by invading Lebanon, the ground has been well-prepared.

Hezbollah’s command-and-control infrastructure is in tatters. But the Iranian control of Syria gives Hezbollah significant strategic depth and, despite the recent losses, Hezbollah is a very large organisation that is deeply woven into Lebanon’s Shia population, the largest sect in the country.

With or without an invasion, however, the mystique around Hezbollah has been broken. Its prestige, built on “resistance” to Israel, has been irreparably damaged — not least by the revelation of how extensively Israeli spies have infiltrated its ranks. Hezbollah’s ability to dominate Lebanon is open to challenge in a way it has not been for decades. The end could well be nigh for the terrorist group.


Kyle Orton is an independent terrorism analyst. He tweets at @KyleWOrton

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David George
David George
7 days ago

The IDF and Mossad are the best; eliminating the terrorists top tier in two weeks. Brilliant!

Anthony Roe
Anthony Roe
6 days ago
Reply to  David George

Compare and contrast with the pathetic efforts of the US and
GB in respect of Red Sea shipping.

Martin M
Martin M
6 days ago
Reply to  Anthony Roe

….and even the pathetic efforts if the IDF and Mossad on October 7.

Guido Karelse
Guido Karelse
7 days ago

It is probably too much to ask of the UN (the international community) but they should step in to establish order in Lebanon and keep everything south of the Litani river free of Hezbollah – after Israel did heavy lifting.

B Emery
B Emery
7 days ago
Reply to  Guido Karelse

The UN diplomats are walking out. AGAIN.

This is what happened at the start of the Ukraine war. If diplomats walk out there can be no diplomacy.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13899295/Benjamin-Netanyahu-anti-Semitic-swamp-fiery-speech.html

It is the most absolutely ridiculous, most disgusting thing to walk out, in my opinion. It is supposed to be a centre for preventing a global war. You cannot prevent a war by walking out.

Rocky Martiano
Rocky Martiano
5 days ago
Reply to  B Emery

Diplomacy is dead. The UN is a largely irrelevant talking shop. Realpolitik rules the world and there are dark days ahead.

Milton Gibbon
Milton Gibbon
7 days ago
Reply to  Guido Karelse

That is what they were meant to do under Israel withdrawing in an agreement that was meant to de-militarise southern Lebanon. They didn’t do it then so why would they now? It would be the most dangerous peacekeeping mission in the world.

J. Hale
J. Hale
6 days ago
Reply to  Guido Karelse

This was part of the 2006 cease fire agreement, and it failed miserably. The UN “peacekeepers” were supposed to keep Hezbollah north of the Litani River. But of course this would have meant confronting Hezbollah. So the peacekeepers did nothing except collect a paycheck from the UN..

Rob N
Rob N
7 days ago

Feels overly optimistic and simplistic to me.

Bernard Brothman
Bernard Brothman
6 days ago

Let’s hope this the beginning of the end of Hezbollah. I hope Israel eliminates the large cache of missiles, especially the precision guided one, that Hezbollah has. Hezbollah is supposed to be north of the Litani River as per UN resolution 1701, which has proved worthless. Maybe the IDF will go in and clean Hezbollah out of there. Who knows, maybe Lebanon can become a sovereign country again.
If Israel wants to succeed, it needs to act quickly and not always clear things with the Biden / Harris Administration.

laurence scaduto
laurence scaduto
6 days ago

I’m beginning to wonder if the size of Hezbollah’s arsenal hasn’t been greatly exaggerated.

Warren Francisco
Warren Francisco
6 days ago

Either that or they’re literally scared to death to go near their launchers because they’ll be targeted.

Samir Iker
Samir Iker
5 days ago

The problem though is this:
“Hezbollah is…. deeply woven into Lebanon’s Shia population”.
It’s not the specific organisation. It’s the mindset of that religion and it’s follower base.

Dumetrius
Dumetrius
6 days ago

There were UN soldiers on the checkpoints when I went to south Lebanon, but I couldn’t really fathom what they were doing there other than maintaining a facade. I’m assuming now war has come they are long gone.

Gio
Gio
6 days ago

I’m afraid that as long as Iran is governed as it has been since 1979, the region will be unstable.

j watson
j watson
6 days ago

Killing a person much easier than killing an idea or ideology. Nonetheless nobody can blame Israel for these actions, nor opting to create and police themselves a deep border area. Too often critics of Israel forget 60k people have been displaced by c9k rockets launched by Hezbollah. What other Country in the World would put up with that. The only real surprise is they waited until now.
As regards combating the idea – much more difficult esp when it’s nourished and supported by IRGC. One wonders how many Gaza Palestinians might now, despite deep hatred of the IDF, wish Hamas gone and prepared to do something about that? Or whether the gangster state Hamas and Hezbollah create still able to suppress that ever turning into practical action?
Just been reading about Sherman’s ‘March to the Sea’. V different times and media scrutiny utterly different, and yet what he was prescient about was the need to hit an idea by taking pitiless war to the civilian heartland supporting it. One suspects IDF strategists can’t say it but know their military history.

B Emery
B Emery
5 days ago
Reply to  j watson

‘Killing a person much easier than killing an idea or ideology’

That’s a very strange comment.

Ideas and idealogies should be easier for anybody to kill than a person.

Killing a person because you are scared of their idealogy or ideas is very questionable practice, really surely it is preferable and easier to combat ideas and idealogies with better ideas and idealogies, ideally leading by example, than it is to kill a person?

Israel are fighting a terrorist organisation not really an idea. Your sentence doesn’t really make sense in this context. Israel is at war, because it has been attacked, it isn’t setting out to kill an idea or a person. It is an army fighting a terrorist group. Not killing a person to kill an idealogy.

Chris Whybrow
Chris Whybrow
6 days ago

They’ll just be replaced with something else. Israel creates their own enemies because they can’t imagine peace. That said, I grew up watching Assad’s thugs massacre the innocent in Syria, so my sympathy for the innocent victims of indiscriminate Israeli atrocities in Palestine and Lebanon does not extend to Nasrallah.

Matthew Jones
Matthew Jones
6 days ago
Reply to  Chris Whybrow

Chris, if the IDF forcibly expel the palestinians from gaza and the westbank, how long will the palestinian’s claim to that land last?

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
4 days ago
Reply to  Matthew Jones

just as long as the red indian’s claims to America. ie Indefinately.

Juan P Lewis
Juan P Lewis
6 days ago
Reply to  Chris Whybrow

They can’t imagine peace except with Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Bahrain, UAE, Sudan (soon), and very likely Saudi Arabia. The only ones who can’t imagine peace are arm chair thumb warriors like Chrys, who hate it when Jews win

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
6 days ago
Reply to  Juan P Lewis

Not about religion it’s about the destruction of the apartheid state of Israel, long live the Palestinian resistance

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
6 days ago
Reply to  Chris Whybrow

Correct Chris many on this site are too happy to watch the massacre of Arab children on the middle east. I ask those who support Israel, would they not fight for their country like the Palestinians and Lebanese do?

Brett H
Brett H
5 days ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

Do you really believe Hamas and Hezbollah care about those people? They’re the ones fighting and killing. I don’t see the people and the terrorists as the same. The terrorists have created so much pain for the Palestinians. They have not represented the people for as long as I can remember. The money they’ve spent in Gaza in their own interests has harmed Palestinians and created a place of poverty, despite help from international agencies. The Palestinian people have never been well represented in their relations with Israel.

George K
George K
6 days ago

As horrible as the treatment of Palestinians by Israel is, it’s hard to miss the crucial difference between a justified Palestinian resistance and Iranian meddling in the regional conflicts under pretence of fighting western “imperialism”. Israel is an oppressive power but it doesn’t have any territorial dispute with Lebanon ( besides some made up Sheba farms). Iran is playing regional politics vying for leadership in the region with catastrophic results

Matthew Jones
Matthew Jones
6 days ago
Reply to  George K

George, if Israel forcibly expel the palestinians from gaza and the westbank, how long will the palestinian’s claim to the land last?

Martin M
Martin M
6 days ago
Reply to  Matthew Jones

That question was so good it was worth asking twice.

Matthew Jones
Matthew Jones
6 days ago
Reply to  Martin M

It’s a very effective one. Fancy having a crack at it?

Samuel Ross
Samuel Ross
6 days ago
Reply to  George K

Vat is zis horrible treatment of which you speak?

Adrian de León
Adrian de León
6 days ago

Man, the normalisation of Israel’s actions in both the article and the comments are shocking. Israel is breaking international human rights law and the laws of war. But no one cares because hey as long as our allies are doing it then it’s fine ? Shocking.

Chris Whybrow
Chris Whybrow
6 days ago

I like this site, but unfortunately it does draw in a few contrarian weirdos sometimes. But don’t be discouraged if you get a lot of dislikes, hatred from ignorant people is a mark of honour.

Warren Francisco
Warren Francisco
6 days ago
Reply to  Chris Whybrow

Adrian and Chris, are you two pearl-clutchers going to solve Israel’s very real problems from your armchairs?

Andrew F
Andrew F
6 days ago

Rubbish.
What country would put up with constant bombardment of missiles from their neighbours?
Why is Isreal held to different standards than any other country?
Both USA and UK bombed German and Japanese cities in ww2.
Why should Israel not be allowed to do the same against its enemies?
Why all the antisemites like you are so concerned about Palestinians?
What about protesting against Kurds not having their own country?
Why are you not worried about Genocide of Ighurs in China or Rhahinga in Burma?
What about human rights of people of North Korea and Iran and Venezuela?
Clearly no concern of yours?
But Israel, the only democracy in sea of dictatorships in Middle East is a problem?

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
4 days ago

No country should put up with another country relentlessly using proxies to murder its people. Yet asshats pretending to be clever demand Israel should do exactly that.