And then there’s the US. America is swimming in oil and gas, but it is unlikely that it has the export capacities to compensate for a complete withdrawal of every last Iranian barrel from the market. To make matters worse, China has been one of Iran’s major customers, so any Israeli attack that appears to be backed by Washington would be interpreted as a hostile act by Beijing.

To make matters worse, someone else would actually profit from such a scenario: Vladimir Putin. Surging oil prices would spill additional billions of revenue into Moscow’s war chest, something that no G7 price cap would be able to prevent. What this means is that any attack on Iranian production would have to be immediately compensated by additional supply from somewhere else.

Saudi Arabia could potentially play that role, but the Biden administration has often antagonised Riyadh and it is not clear whether Mohammed bin Salman would be willing to help out, especially since he would profit from higher oil prices. What’s more, despite the pragmatic approach of the Saudi elite to relations with the state of Israel, the Saudi public is less enthusiastic, and appearing to do the “Zionist entity’s” bidding could cause domestic problems for the Kingdom.

At this point, it should be assumed that the Israeli leadership is aware of all these facts and will therefore threaten but not execute a full attack on Iran’s oil industry. While a limited attack could also have significant consequences, these would most likely be short-lived and could also serve as a wake-up call for the Europeans to finally get their energy policy in order. If not, it is just a matter of time until geopolitical instability causes another major oil price shock and, consequently, a European energy crisis.