As soon as the dust settled around Michel Barnier’s surprise nomination as French Prime Minister, the choice was met with something like grudging admiration. Stuck between a rock and a hard place, the President realised an unexpected coup. But in recent days attitudes seem to be changing. Barnier has been unable to choose his ministers, and his support amongst the parliamentary groups is starting to fray. Meanwhile, Barnier’s suggestion that he may need to raise taxes has been met with consternation. Looking at the causes and consequences of Macron’s appointment, it is starting to look less like a clever move than a reckless gamble.
After losing the legislative elections, it seemed that Macron would be forced to nominate a Prime Minister from the Left. After all, the Left alliance, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), won 193 seats, compared with the 166 of Macron’s Ensemble, the 142 of the far-Right Rassemblement National (RN), and the mere 47 picked up by the centre-right Républicains (LR). Given the radical content of the NFP’s programme and how likely it would be to row back on Macron’s controversial pension reforms, a Left-wing Prime Minister would have been a difficult pill for the President to swallow.
By waiting until after the Olympics, and riding it out through the August sunshine, Macron was able to let the sense of electoral defeat dissipate. Capitalising on the divisions within the National Assembly, where no single party or group commanded a majority, Macron argued that he would only nominate a Prime Minister that would escape a vote of no confidence. The Left-wing candidate, Lucie Castets, was most likely to be voted down by her opponents, giving Macron a reason to refuse her appointment. Determined to find someone who would double-down on his legislative achievements, Macron turned towards the Right. His interest in Xavier Bertrand, however, was a red rag to the RN: Bertrand, as President of the Hauts de France region, has very often clashed with Marine Le Pen. She made it very clear to Macron that a Bertrand-led government would not last long. Barnier, by contrast, was far more amenable to the far Right. On 5 September, very quickly after his name appeared out of nowhere, Barnier was sworn in as Prime Minister.
Superficially at least, Macron has been able to shore up his own policies while also stealing the premiership from under the noses of the Left. The response within the NFP has been vitriolic. As one Le Monde headline put it, “The Left misses out on Matignon, the Parti Socialiste (PS) tears itself apart.” At issue here is the candidature of socialist heavyweight and former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve. On 19 August, Macron telephoned Cazeneuve, after weeks of speculation about his possible nomination. Days later, at the PS’s summer conference, Cazeneuve was the subject of strong disagreements: the Left alliance remained committed to Castets, but others voiced their support for Cazeneuve and criticised Olivier Faure, the leader of the PS, for doggedly seeking an alliance with the far-left France Insoumise. By the beginning of September, it was clear that Cazeneuve did not have the support of his own party and Macron turned elsewhere.
Since then, Faure has been accused of torpedoing Cazeneuve’s nomination out of self-interest. The same has been said of former President, François Hollande, who is now back in Parliament as an MP. Neither Faure nor Hollande wanted a heavyweight Left-wing Prime Minister because it would detract from their own ambition to be at the centre of things. Macron’s move has thus provoked some blood-spilling within the Left alliance.
But Barnier’s nomination is symptomatic of a deep crisis not only on the Left but also within Macronism. The fact that the new Prime Minister is struggling to put a government together should not be surprising, and for at least three reasons.
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SubscribeThe chances of any legislation of substance being passed is zero, due to the government being placed in the hands of the fourth largest voting bloc in parliament. Political stagnation for 3 years suits the RN and the NFP. If the NFP can maintain unity behind a single candidate, they will compete for the Presidency with Le Pen.
You’re right about the legislation, but the NFP won’t hold for that long. Le Pen is the most likely beneficiary of Macrons pointless scheming.