Out of the shadows. Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP via Getty Images.

Any evaluation of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas should, in fairness, start on a charitable note. Itâs devilishly difficult to cajole parties that have been butchering one another, and loathe each other deeply, to stop fighting. Besides, thereâs no such thing as a perfect ceasefire deal, even in the minds of those who sign it. They haggle as best they can, on the issues that matter to them, deciding how much ground theyâll give on key concerns even as they coerce their rivals to make the bigger concessions. But, in the end, neither side ever gets everything it wants.
More importantly, the agreement has made a huge difference to peopleâs lives, above all to Gazans. Those still living â at least 48,000 have been killed, even as The Lancet suggests that figure could be much higher â have been stalked daily by death, seen their homeland reduced to 42 million tons of rubble, and been deprived of lifeâs most basic necessities. That fear has been lifted, and hundreds of trucks laden with humanitarian aid have begun to enter the Strip. As for the family and friends of the hostages snatched by Hamas on October 7, they have waited in agony for the return of their loved ones, even as some know that all they can expect is their loved one’s corpse. Of the 33 hostages who are to be freed by the end of Phase 1 of the agreement, only seven have come home so far. The joy of the families, and of Israelis more generally, has been palpable. If everything goes according to plan, the remaining 61 hostages will be freed in Phase 2 of the agreement.
Thereâs more. Under the terms of Phase 1, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) will redeploy to a narrow buffer-zone within Gazaâs border, before withdrawing completely by the end of Phase 2. Hamas is happy about this provision, but so are Gazans generally â it decreases the odds of the warâs resumption. Phase 3 calls for a detailed plan to rebuild Gaza, with satellite imagery showing 60% of buildings damaged or destroyed. Reconstruction, it goes without saying, is crucial if Gazans are to anything resembling normal lives.
Now that weâve got the âin fairnessâ bit out of the way, letâs turn to the ways that the agreement could collapse, even before the 42 days of Phase 1 elapse, but more likely at the end of Phase 2 â an additional 42-day period when Hamas is required to release the remaining 65 hostages.
Could Hamas violate the deal? Of course. Recall that immediately after the ceasefire began, thousands of Hamas fighters and police appeared on the streets. Having endured punishing blows from one of the worldâs most powerful armies and survived, and apparently recruiting enough fighters to replace those killed, Hamas has claimed victory. Such hubris could ultimately convince its leaders that Israel can be humiliated even further, via a renewed bout of fighting. Or, by reneging on its promise to release the hostages, Hamas may try to wring more concessions from Israel. It could, for instance, demand the freeing of even more Palestinian prisoners. That includes Marwan Barghouti of Fatah, the most famous (and popular) of all Palestinian prisoners. Since 2002, heâs been locked in an Israeli prison, serving five life sentences for murder. If Hamas ever demanded his release, or made additional demands, Israel would almost certainly say no â and the war would resume.
Yet, itâs hard to see why Hamas would wreck the agreement. The January 15 deal gives it just about everything it has long sought (and received, in a May 2024 accord, which Israel rejected). One important gain here is the IDFâs redeployment away from Gazaâs major population centres, as a prelude to a complete withdrawal. Another is Israelâs release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, based on an overwhelmingly favourable hostage-for-prisoner ratio, and thatâs before you recall the comprehensive plan for rebuilding Gaza.
Why would Hamas abandon these gains â especially when thereâs not much more it can realistically squeeze from Israel, and when reigniting the war would inflict far more pain on Hamas than the IDF? The point here is not that Hamas is fastidious about honouring the terms of deals it signs, merely that, like other states and groups jousting in the pitiless arena of international politics, itâs a self-interested actor.
Israel, on the other hand, does have reasons â again based on self-interest â to breach the terms of the peace. Netanyahu vowed that he would continue the war until Hamas was destroyed: not just diminished but totally wiped out. He has failed to achieve that goal, something the IDF has itself acknowledged. Worse, Hamas has replenished its ranks and rebuilt much of the labyrinthine tunnel network, the very same infrastructure that made freeing the hostages so challenging for Israeli troops.
Netanyahu, in short, has unfinished business, and has openly stated he reserves the right to restart the war. No less striking, the prime minister is under pressure from his own coalition. One of his hardline cabinet members, Itamar Ben-Gvir, national security minister and head of the Otzma Yehudit party, resigned in protest after Netanyahu agreed to sign the ceasefire deal. Ben-Gvir urged Bezalel Smotrich, another hardliner, to follow suit. Netanyahu persuaded Smotrich to stay by promising (among other things) that the ceasefire wouldnât mean a permanent end to the war. Smotrich, for his part, has publicly highlighted this assurance.
For good measure, the finance minister added that there would be âa gradual takeover of the entire Gaza Stripâ to ensure that âhumanitarian aid will not reach Gaza as it has until now.â To summarise, then, Netanyahu has consistently sought to ensure that he has the support of the far-Right religious parties. But if he delivers on his deal with Smotrich, defenestrates the ceasefire, and restricts aid flows once more, the whole arrangement will collapse.
And what of Donald Trump? He paraded the ceasefire, which he clearly wanted signed before Inauguration Day, as something he alone made happen. Wouldnât its implosion make his boast seem hollow, and make his coveted Nobel Peace Prize even less likely? None of this is likely to be as big a problem as it might seem. Trump makes lots of promises â remember his vow to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours of being sworn in? â and takes credit for all manner of things. But his base expects this, so he wonât pay any political price if the Gaza war restarts. If the bloodshed resumes, heâll blame Hamas, or Netanyahu, or perhaps even Biden.
The American domestic context matters here too. Trump has long relied on the support of groups and individuals, both Jewish and Evangelical, unconditionally supportive of Israel. The President, who always fancies himself a maverick, could break faith with these supporters. Yet nothing he has done with respect to Israel suggests heâs so inclined. During his first presidential term, after all, he moved the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Accepting Israelâs claim that the unified city is its eternal capital, thatâs something only five other countries have done.
Trump also recognised the Golan Heights â Syrian sovereign territory that Israel occupied after the Six-Day War in 1967 â as legally part of Israel. In 2023, meanwhile, he declared that Israel has âno better friend or allyâ than him. No sooner did his current term start than he lifted the sanctions Joe Biden had imposed on far-Right settlers building illegal settlements in the West Bank. Soon after that, he nixed Bidenâs ban on supplying 2,000-pound bombs to Israel. Plus, Trump has apparently assured Netanyahu that Israel would enjoy his full backing to restart the fight if Hamas violates the deal. In fact, the prime minister has already accused the militants of doing just that, and responded by temporarily blocking displaced Gazans from returning to the territoryâs north.
None of this means that Israel, confident of US backing, is sure to breach the ceasefire. Nor is it necessarily planning to, especially since the hostages wonât all be released until the end of Phase 2. Though heâll have more flexibility thereafter, Netanyahu may yet decide to stick with the agreement. For one thing, he may be deterred by the surprisingly high casualty rates among the IDF, with nearly 900 battle deaths in Gaza alongside 38 suicides. For another, Netanyahu may be unsure whether Hamas can truly be destroyed. Still, of the two parties that have signed the deal, Israel has stronger motives to breach it than Hamas â something to bear in mind if violence really does return.
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SubscribeAntisemite writes in praise of Hamas and blames Israel
Not all criticism of Israel is due to antisemitism, and trying to claim so is merely lazy and no better than the woke screaming Islamophobia everyone there is criticism of and aspect of Islam.
The writer also hasnât blamed anyone, the article is merely an assessment of the current situation on the ground
Itâs interesting watching the vote counter on any piece about Gaza.
While America was asleep my comment had 9 in favour and only 1 against. Once America woke up that changed to 11 in favour and 17 against. The blind support of the Israelis really is a position largely unique to the States.
Really?
So Israel being only democracy in the sea of Islamofascists is not relevant?
Uk and USA bombed German and Japanese cities to smithereens.
Are you against it?
We bombed Caen to flat ground during Normandy invasion.
Are you against it?
Why do you held Israel to some unrealistic expectations in conduct of combat which you are not expecting from other combatants?
The Second World War is a completely different scenario, in that the Allies were fighting a peer adversary and the bombing campaigns were the only way to destroy the industrial base creating weapons, the railways for logistical purposes and the entrenched heavy defensive lines. None of that applies to Gaza, as Hamas had no factories, defensive lines or troops to move.
By your reasoning the RAF would have been justified in carpet bombing the housing estates in Belfast during the Troubles, seeing as the IRA lived and operated amongst them. I wonder if the Irish American diaspora would have been so forgiving in that scenario?
I hate to find myself in agreement with Arthur “Bomber” Harris, but he was at least honest about the real intentions behind the area-bombing campaign over Germany. German industrial production actually peaked in 1944 at the height of the bombing because much production had been moved out of populated areas. The Germans ran out of fuel and trained soldiers, not tanks or airplanes. The RAF’s purpose in the strategic bombing of Germany was primarily to destroy the will of the people to fight on, to clog the roads and railways with refugees, and as a bonus, to destroy some vital infrastructure.
I would suggest that Israel’s purpose in bombing Gaza to rubble is much the same, though of course they would never admit this. Aerial bombardment of urban areas, even with sophisticated modern guidance systems, is still a hideously imprecise method of warfare resulting in massive civilian casualties, but both Hamas and the Israeli government seem to be, for different reasons, okay with this.
Grow up
I question the decision of the author to use sources such as Hamas and its enablers for the number of Gazans killed (numbers that never mention how many of the killed were Hamas fighters, a fact that plainly demonstrates that these are propaganda figures), or the Arab Center of Washington as source to say that Israel rejected the cease fire agreement in May 2024, whereas all other involved, including the previous US administration, conceded that it was Hamas that rejected it. Likewise for the number of Israeli suicides: the army counted 28, not 38 – but it is not clear how many are a consequence of fighting in Gaza, and how many as a result from the fight in the Israeli kibbutsim and the Nova on October 7-8 2023. From talking to soldiers, the sights that they have seen there over one day were immeasurably worse than anything they experienced over months in Gaza.
I also question the meaning of “Hamas has recruited enough new fighters to replace those that were killed”. Those that were killed were highly trained soldiers operating in platoons, companies, battalions and regiments. The new recruits are kids with guns. There is no comparison, just more propaganda.
That said, this is a fair analysis of the chances that the cease fire will hold, as far as it goes. What is missing from this analysis that considers only two parties, Israel and Hamas, is the third party, namely Gazan civilians. It is painfully clear that Hamas does not consider that it is responsible for them â they said so expressly â and that the international community â represented by the author of this piece – only cares about them insofar as their plight can serve to diabolize Israel. The looming question is: would rebuilding Gaza, while it stays under Hamasâs control, be in the best interest of the Gazans?
But but but, it has been proven that Israel is the biggest liars, Hamas is many really bad bad bad things but it seems like one of them is they’re not liars.
I’ve got a bridge I can sell you! Not liars? They’ve had rockets drop on their own people that they’ve denied, they’ve shouted they’ve won at the hostage release, they deny the Jewish Temple existed, they have hidden in civilian infrastructure and as civilians, they’ve used endless propaganda to earn people in the West’s sympathy, they believe their prophet flew on a horse to Jerusalem plus more…..
You are kidding…Hamas wouldn’t know the truth if it was sitting on the bridge of their collective noses! Their leaders are sitting in their luxurious vilkas on their computers putting together “fairy” tales to put out to the world declaring them to be victims in this and the sheep out there lap it up.
Maybe read the report done on the anakysis of reporting of deaths in Gaza: https://henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/questionable-counting/
Then tell us why you think Hamas is telling the truth.
At a minimum a peace treaty should be required along with a democratic vote.
If you donât have peace between Gaza and Israel why is the un there?
Great post.
It is quite perplexing why some people who sympathize with the plight of the people of Gaza donât realize that Hamas is perfectly fine with offering up their own people to be slaughtered. I certainly sympathize with the innocent lives, but they allegedly voted for Hamas! If a certain group of people pray and fight for the complete destruction of another group of people, what else is to be done?
The vote that resulted in Hamas taking over was years ago. I wonder if they would still vote for them today knowing how little Hamas values the civilians’ lives?
Many many do as they are happy to report “traitors to the cause” to Hamas, who then execute the “non believers”. This has been reported by news agencies around the globe but you have to search for it as Hamas and certain factions in the West don’t want it out there as it would take away their victimhood.
The clue is in the word ‘ceasefire’. There is no settlement. There will be no permanent peace.
Duplicate removed
Whether the ceasefire ends, who might do it and why is all very nice for an article but the author forgets one thing. Why did this all start, this time, in the first place . Hamas is driven by the want of destroying Israel and killing all Jews, that hasn’t gone away. Israel is determined for this not to happen. Draw your own conclusions.
Yes. Itâs like a cancer in the human body. Leave a cluster of cells behind and it will propagate.
Regarding the aid to Gaza question – has it been getting in? Itâs generally expected that a combatant on the back foot will struggle with supplies, but they all looked pretty well fed in the hostage handover pictures.
yes, but who was in those pictures. the people who have been getting the food.
Another Hamas apologist. Hamas is not a rational self interested actor, they knew what the response would be to Oct. 7th and yet they went forward with it. Hamas is composed of fanatical psychologiclly damaged insane murderers who don’t view Jewish people as human.
Hamas might agree to the cease-fire for now, only to see another Oct 7th in our children’s lifetime because the problem wasn’t dealt with.
I upvoted you, but there is clear desire on part of Israelis for return of hostages.
Which democratic government can not easily ignore.
I think it is wrong desire, which trades return of hostages for long term security of Israel.
Hasn’t Hamas already said they will repeat 7th Oct over and over again when they get the chance? Why should Israel give them that chance?
CENSORED.
Usually caused by a mass of downvotes or somebody flagging your comment, which I find is particularly prevalent on articles regarding Israel
Merely an interlude.
I think the best thing for Israel is to accept the agreement and in due course resume the war – but this time more assymetrically, in the Lehi and Irgun style. And do not be restricted to the leftists’ proxies like hamas and hezbollah. There are plenty of supporters of terrorism in Spain, Eire and probably the UK. This may include the Lancet and their water carriers in the media. If we can’t bring these people under the law in their native countries why not bring the law to them – from Tel Aviv or perhaps now Jerusalem…
I presume open warfare was preferred this time to save IDF soldiers who will die at a much higher rate in guerrilla warfare by small patrols.
Can you think of any examples where an insurgent force lost more fighters than a uniformed army and still prevailed? The ability to melt back into the civilian populace is a big + for Hamas as it was for VC, Irgun, Bolsheviks etc. The snakes head of Hamas et al is in western capitals and imo Iran. Though the IDF is probably the worlds’ best army at the mo’ even they would struggle to operate in Tehran or Islington with full battle dress and kit.
There will be no hope for the Gazans until and unless Hamas is utterly crushed.
how do you suggest doing that?
The old fashioned way.
Send them another batch of pagers.
Yet, itâs hard to see why Hamas would wreck the agreement.
Is it, though? Perhaps if one equates Hamas to a normal group of people who want to live in civilized fashion, this claim makes sense. But the claim also ignores that Hamas has no such desire if living this way means the ongoing presence of Israel.
Perhaps in the comfy offices of a think tank, Hamas realizes the deal is as good as it can expect and it will accept the gains. But Hamas leaders are not think tank people; they will willingly sacrifice another 50,000 Arabs if it makes the Israelis look bad on the self-important world stage.
Serious Terrorist acts require three things. Motivation, Opportunity and Means. The first will never go away, the other two, for Hamas, are far less available than they were before October 7th. Israel is far safer now.
âTheyâ will grow some more!
The Crusaders managed to hold out for two centuries, but eventually were driven into the sea.
They didn’t have nukes.
The author implies that this cease fire is some sort of peace treaty. It most surely is not. Hamas leadership, AFTER the cease fire agreement was reached, made clear its intention to continue to fight to replace the State of Israel with a Palestinian state. Hence, as the author alluded to, it continues to attempt to rearm and resupply its war machine–and from its perspective the cease fire is intended to allow it to do so.
As others have pointed out the only way peace can be achieved is by removing Hamas from power. Sadly, the Palestinian Authority has not shown itself to be up to the task of replacing Hamas in a competent manner. And even more tragically, the UN and most NGO’s in the West Bank and Gaza foster the right of return and the illegitimacy of Israel.
Hence, while a cease fire and release of hostages (albeit at a ransom of the release of many prisoners with blood on their hands) has value, a lasting peace sadly remains a long, long way away. Commentators such as the author of this article (and many of his colleagues at Columbia) do not help matters by, in essence, taking the side of Hamas.
Hamas clearly has the better part of the cease fire deal. Hamas still exists, its gets terrorists – some with multiple murder convictions – freed, it gets to rebuild (above and below ground), countries and entities that have become anti Israel (think Ireland and the pro-Hamas types on US college campuses) are not going back, and prepare for the next October 7th.
Further, I feel, Hamas legitimized how it conducts war. Kill, rape and take civilians hostage without much push back from the “liberal” west. In fact, people in the west will actually applaud Hamas’ actions, such as women’s groups that did not condemn rapes. Put war infrastructure under civilian buildings, such as the hospitals, homes and schools, and use civilian deaths for propaganda.
The war is paused and not over. Israel let its guard down and believed the Gazans wanted to live in peace and work in Israel (about 18,000 per day). Instead some Gazans used their work in Israel as opportunities to scout out the land and create maps of communities so the terrorists knew where to go. Ask the Gazans if they want to fight against Israel to continue even if it means more destruction and death and see what answers you get.
It is only a matter of time now before the âArabsâ get the BOMB. Then what?
Well, if they attack Israel they will disappear as well.
Have you looked at map of Saudi etc and Iran recently?
Just few settlements here and there.
I would need to do calculations but 20 missiles with multiple warheads finish Saudi and Iran.
The facts seem to suggest that a significant number of Arabs prefer a functional peace with Israel over Uranian imperialism. If Iran continues to FA, they are very likely to have a dramatc FO experience.
It is misleading to call the Zionists, whether Christian or Jewish, ‘Christian’ and ‘Jewish’: their religion is nothing but perverse ideology and making more money. There is nothing truly Christian or Jewish about people who treat other human beings as Untermenschen or animals.
No zionists like me don’t believe other human beings are animals. I believe in the existence of Israel and that is it. Anti-zionists are yet the propose how peace and coexistence could happen here apart from doing all they can to destroy Israel.
Too many genuine Jews and those who have not imbibed the wholly disingenuous propaganda from the largely atheist, not Jewish, Israeli state decry the atrocities committed by the IDF who even find time to delight in their murder – witness the headshots!- of Arabwomen and children. Zionism is not Judaism; it is a secular philosophy clothed in cultural Judaism and completely without a moral compass. Just read Herzl, Jabotinsky, Begin and others – your own people – if you don’t believe me.
I’m not a massive zionist but Israel exists and half the world’s Jewish population exists there and antizionists have no vision for peace and regularly hypothesises their disappearance from the region. Your post is a classic example of academic antizionism where being someone who believes in israel’s existence and thus being a zionist implies you agree with every word of those people mention above.
That is what Muslims do with others, did not you notice?
But we still import these savages into Europe.
Campbell P inverts reality in a fascinating display of deranged bigotry.
It is fascinating to see how many ways terrorist-supporting ‘writers’ can use to make out they’re being ‘balanced’ whilst ignoring the reality of facts.
When he calculates the “the odds of the warâs resumption” for example he could use historical data:
Number of times Israel has broken a ceasefire and/or started any war in history, anywhere – zero
Number of times an Arab nation has broken a ceasefire and/or started a war against Israel – Every Single Time
I wonder if I made that point clearly enough when determining who ‘might’ break the ceasefire. Also, if they didn’t want 48,000, or whatever made up lie figure, of deaths they probably shouldn’t have butchered, gang-raped, murdered and hostage-took over 1,200 civilians. Just a thought
Hamas believes it won because the war created enemies for Israel. They don’t seem to have care for their own lives and are willing to see loss of life as long as they can destroy Israel.
This chap is really clueless along with being a Hamas shill. I think that is to be expected from someone who has a position at Columbia University
For four centuries, the holy lands were under Ottoman rule and Muslims, Christians, and Jews lived peacefully together.
Since the creation of âIsraelâ, we have seen nothing but tragedy and the worst kind of oppression. Muslims, Christians, and Jews must come together and reject the rule of the bloodthirsty far-right sadists (Likud party and worse) that currently rule the Holy Land, under the name of Judaism, when they are in fact a disgrace to the religion.
Better check your history. Islamâs been a thorn in civilization since it came on scene 700 ADâŠa couple thousand years after the Jews and half a century post-Christianity. Itâs successor Ottoman Empire, likewise, became one of brutal conquest and oppression of infidelsâŠwith a more recent focus on genocide of Jews, Armenians and gays and launching terror attacks on Western civilian populations in general. The head of the snake is Iranâs fundamentalist dictatorship – for which you are either propagandist or apologist.
And yet, Muslim Arabs, Jews and Christians all live, work and rule together in Israel. Please explain how that happens?
I would love someone to write about how or if Gaza is going to rebuilt. Trump supporters do not support foreign aid, and pro-Palestinian support is very much left wing coded. Canadaâs most likely Conservative government wonât be paying anything towards this either. Pro-Palestinian protesters have alienated most of the general public. Trump is talking about moving the Gazans elsewhere. As usual there is a core of common sense to what he is saying. Personally – I couldnât care less if Gaza is rebuilt. They started a war – they lost it. The people in Gaza do overwhelmingly support Hamas – so they get what they get.
Iran, Oman UAE and other states in the Middke East should be funding the rebuilding of Gaza. They gave “sanctuary” to Hamas leaders during the fighting. Definitely not the West. If countries support the atrocity of 7 Oct, then they need to take responsibility for the aftermath. The rest of the world should be holding them accountable and stop aid to Gaza.
Hamas – regroup, re-arm and attack Israel again.
And Hamas’s friends in the universities, the media and others wlll continually give support to and excuses for Hamas.
âYet, itâs hard to see why Hamas would wreck the agreement.â – To be frank, itâs hard to see why Hamas was so bone- headedly thick as to have started this nightmare with the evil delight they showed in the close-quarters butchery of Israeli civilians of all ages.
But, here we are.
Let us not forget the actions which triggered this awful chain of events, nor let us forget who perpetrated them.
The Israelis kicking the Palestinians off the land theyâd farmed for centuries?
Please go educate yourself. That statement is embarrassing only you.
The way this ends is with the defeat and unconditional surrender of Hamas.
Or the theocratic dictators in Iran.
Hamas will break the ceasefire agreement to be certain. And soon.