Francois Bayrou is hanging on by a thread. Ludovic Marin/Pool/AFP/Getty Images.

Only a month into his tenure, Francois Bayrou, the fifth French Prime Minister in three years, is already facing the first of doubtless many attempts to bring his government down. The great survivor may have clung on for decades in French politics, but he may only last a few months as Prime Minister. Right now, the fate of his government hangs on the flimsiest of threads.
When Barnier was appointed Prime Minister after the long summer of indecision, Bayrou theorised that it would be better to come after Barnier’s downfall, because surely the parliament would find it harder to censure a government a second time. But this week, as the Assembly musters against him already, he may yet have to eat his words.
Bayrou’s nomination a month ago came as something of a surprise to the public, given how long he has been around without ever securing the top jobs. This time, though, Bayrou had left no one in any doubt that he wanted Prime Minister and President Macron was running out of options. The story his supporters tell is that he was summoned to the Elysée only for Macron to tell him he wanted someone more pliable and likely to take orders than Barnier had been. But after Bayrou threw a furious tantrum, threatening to withdraw his support in the national assembly, Macron backed down.
Just as Bayrou carries the whiff of angry desperation about him, then, so too does his government — some of whom have been hauled out of the political deep freeze. One is the former socialist prime minister, Manuel Valls. After resigning from the Socialist Party, Valls briefly sat as an MP for Macron’s party after the 2017 legislative elections, only to quit in an attempt to become the mayor of Barcelona. Another is Elisabeth Borne, a recent Prime Minister, whose reappearance was an unpleasant surprise for all those who took to the streets to oppose her pension reform bill.
Most problematic for Bayrou’s government is that it hasn’t got a firm purchase in the National Assembly. This, after all, is what brought Barnier down. The appointment of Valls is a red rag to the socialist bull. Borne is also a snub to the Left, embodying, as she does, the much-hated pension reform. Bayrou is clearly hoping that his relatively cordial relations with Marine Le Pen will help him avoid the fate she handed Barnier as she worked with the Left to bring the last prime minister down.
Bayrou symbolically offered Marine Le Pen his support back in 2022, when she was struggling to acquire the necessary signatures to run in the presidential campaign (candidates have to secure at least 500 signatures from mayors across France). Back then, Bayrou argued that democracies are nourished by ideological differences and that candidates such as Le Pen should not be prevented from standing by an alliance of anti-far Right mayors. Le Pen’s memory is short, however. Her response to Bayrou’s nomination was the same it was to Barnier’s: he will be judged by his actions.
And so, this week, Bayrou’s theory about it being hard to censure a government a second time around is being put to the test: he delivered his speech of political intent on the 14 January and deftly avoided making any firm commitments for fear of angering one of the camps in the parliament. Instead, he presented a vision of government that evolved through time, adjusting its actions in line with the compromises it must make. It was impressive in its ability to transform a significant lack of commitment into a noble principle of government. Perhaps this is how the wily politician has survived so long — he was, after all, education secretary when Emmanuel Macron was still a love-struck student.
Reactions to his speech, and to the censure motion put forward by the far-Left La France Insoumise, suggest that Bayrou may be sticking around for a little longer. It seems he has succeeded in undoing the unity on the Left, at least with regards to the censure motion. The Socialist Party decided, in extremis, not to support it, thus in effect splitting the New Popular Front alliance which has been in place since the legislative elections last year. The sticking point for the Socialists was pension reform. Bayrou took a classic middle-way position: he refused to suspend the reform but he did say he would organise a three-month consultation. When pushed, he said he would be inclined to support a new deal for pensions should there be agreement as a result of the consultation. This was just about enough for the socialists.
As well as all the parties of government, including the centre-right Républicains, making it clear they will not support the vote of censure, the far-Right appears is also on side. Jordan Bardella lambasted Bayrou’s speech but the Rassemblement National as a whole has opted to hold its fire. Only days after the death of Jean Marie Le Pen, the party’s co-founder, Marine Le Pen and Bardella are playing a somewhat longer game. Thinking of their electoral prospects over the next two years, neither wishes to be seen as the harbingers of doom nor as needlessly reckless or radical.
In essence then, Bayrou’s calculation may have been correct. Bringing down a government is an exhilarating and dramatic gesture and a month ago it sent a clear message to the president, holed up in the Elysée Palace with a few of his cronies. But bringing down a second government would tell the country, and the world, that France has become ungovernable. There would, too, be serious consequences such as the need to survive without passing a proper budget and to pay increasingly higher interests on the renewal of its debt.
It would be quite wrong, though, to present Bayrou’s survival as some kind of political triumph or success. The cost of his strategy is considerable. As the prime minister tries his hardest to prevent the parliament from censuring him, it is hard to imagine that his government will pursue anything like a coherent plan for France. His legislative outputs will end up being an aggregate of whatever can make it through the parliament unscathed. Peace in the national assembly is no longer the means via which the government can pursue its programme; it has become an end in itself. His is a government that will be defined not by what it does but simply by its capacity to survive.
This is a low bar, particularly given the challenges France is facing, from a faltering economy to the need to determine Europe’s response to the imminent arrival of Trump at the White House. It is unlikely that history will treat the Bayrou government very favourably, even if he does last longer than his predecessor.
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SubscribeFrance is becoming a failed state–and Britain isn’t? Really?
Good to see that “brilliant” bit of tactical voting between pro-Macron supporters and the far left to keep Le Pen and Bardella out has been going so well. Macron can’t dissolve this Assembly until June, but will he want to call elections again? Doubtful as he threw the New Popular Front under the bus and I’ll be very surprised if they want to team up with him again to keep the RN out. We could just get years of zombie government in France at a time where she can least afford it.
The French National assembly cannot have snap elections again until July. Macron does not want to resign.
We can expect at least an extra month of gridlock until Feb 20 (Gemran elections). And a little more wither & decay
As proud froggies, we could find some bitter (and stupid) solace in thinking that the situation looks even worse across the Channel, with England being governed by an ethnic enemy of the white working class, whereas Bayrou is just like Hollande : the local socialist mayor .of a small de-industrialized town where social transfers are the main source of income who thinks wealth comes out of a magic tax tree and that balancing the budget without crashing the economy is his successor’s job.
In France right now, and f..ed for f..ed, I know which dysfunctional basket case of a country I’d chose. Decent infrastructures, hideously expensive health system but efficient. The end game might be the same, but the car crash in the UK is in a different league all together. Spectacular. Brutal. Hopeless.
The French disease, fiscal and legal diarrhoea, may even be neutralised. I wouldn’t bet against strong economic performance.
Frustrating as all hell. By far the country in Europe in the best position to create wealth and match Poland’s impressive rise. The sad truth is that neither population nor leaders are prepared to venture out in the “jungle”. They much prefer herding and being herded, sleeping away into oblivion, feasting on great foods and great wines, enjoying the scenery.
Après tout, pourquoi pas?
But you cannot help but regret the absence of a Nigel Farrage in the Frog’s People’s Republic.
On the other hand, countries like Belgium and Italy have consistently shown that a caretaker government (which is what Bayrou essentially is) results in economic stabilisation and improvement.
“far-right”. Stop it. I expect better of Unherd.
Both Melenchon and Le Pen would favour a VI French Republic to redirect the French election system towards a presidency of the Far Left or nationalist-populist Right.