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NYPD officers stand guard as they prepare for a vigil at a recruiting office (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
What do Napoleon, America’s Army War College and the liberal media have in common? The centuries-old belief that conscription is the “vitality of the nation”. With the US military hamstrung by a catastrophic personnel problem, the “draft” is being handed a new lease of life. Maybe, murmurs the DC think-tank circuit, conscription could provide America with the proverbial shot in the arm it needs: polarised internally and beset by a multitude of external challenges, the expedient of compelling young Americans to pick up rifles in service to their nation could kill two birds with one stone.
But almost all discussion of conscription today falls into a standard narrative, a just-so story that is both simple to grasp and seductively credible. America could have a draft if it wanted to, the story goes: no doubt it would work and be effective. The problem, however, is that people have grown too self-absorbed for such harsh measures. Previous generations worked hard and sacrificed willingly, while kids these days just want to play videogames.
Such a narrative is increasingly dangerous. The fatal issue with a potential draft is not that people would get very angry about it — though it’s fair to say that they probably would. The entire reason America abandoned the draft in the Seventies was because the Vietnam War was slowly tearing society apart, leading to protests, riots, and an epidemic of enlisted soldiers murdering their own officers. Any attempt to reinstate conscription would likely bring with it a “Vietnam syndrome” far worse than the original one. But in some ways that is beside the point.
Right now, even if America wanted a draft, the entire administrative apparatus required to actually implement it no longer exists. Just as Rome eventually forgot how to muster its legions or maintain its roads and bridges, so too has the US government forgotten how to quickly gather hundreds of thousands of men under arms. The systems necessary to do so have been destroyed through decades of malign neglect, and they probably can’t be brought back at all, let alone repaired on short notice.
To understand just how impractical a draft is, it’s necessary to understand how it might work. Eligible Americans, upon reaching the age of 18, are supposed to be registered in the Selective Service System (SSS) database. Once a draft happens, the draftees chosen by lottery could then be sent notices, ordering them to report for service. When they have been given the chance to appeal or seek deferments, the remainder would report to the US military, which would train them and send them to war.
Today, every piece of this chain is broken beyond repair. The first step — the registration of eligible candidates — seems like it would be the easiest to get a handle on. But nothing could be further from the truth, for the simple reason that no single federal agency even attempts to keep an up-to-date record of every American’s actual place of residence. Take it from the horse’s mouth: according to the Chair of the House Armed Services Committee himself, “absolutely nobody” bothers to notify the SSS when they move.
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SubscribeI think Malcom really glosses over the anger issue. Remember, how during the War on Terror there was the greatest influx of military volunteers to fight since the Second World War? What happened to them? Their government betrayed them, wasted resources on geopolitical games, and failed at almost every single stated goal. Now we have a military with serious recruiting problems and multigeneration military families are telling their sons and daughters not to follow in their footsteps.
Where there’s a will there’s a way.
The logistical problems Malcolm mentions are trivial compared to the fact that the denizens of the American Empire no longer support it or its purpose.
That said, I imagine the following scenario: Russia arms Venezuela with some hypersonic missiles and FABs etc., Maduro lobs a few of these at El Paso and Miami. Would that be enough to bring the country together and ignite a sense of patriotism?
Because if it did, I am sure the logistical problems would be solved (messily albeit) in record time. After all, Google knows every single thing about you, and just look how effective lockdown was when there was a will to do it.
I imagine their would be no logistical problem because the people would come to the defence of their country.
I imagine wealthy kids and young women, particularly from non military families, would spend a total of about zero seconds with boots and a rifle.
You may be right, but I imagine they represent a very small part of the population.
This is surely correct. If Americans could see that their help was being enlisted in a real fight against a real enemey that genuinely threatened harm to America then a draft would be both possible and unnecessary.
The very fact that a draft is even contemplated at a time when Kamala Harris was boasting (incorrectly) about there being zero American servicement in active engagement overseas is, frankly bonkers. How can you have a recruitment crisis when you are claiming that you aren’t fighting anyone?
The fact is that America isn’t remotely threatened. Its only near peers are the Russians and the Chinese and both are sufficiently nuclear armed that serious military conflict in any of the three homelands is unthinkable.
America’s military is not defensive (that’s what the nukes are for) it is intimidatory – it’s role is to tamp down regional conflicts far away. That isn’t a popular recruitment cause at the best of times.
Take that basic, unpalatable truth and add to it, America’s track record of bungled, and ineffective conflicts from Vietnam to the present day and it’s a wonder that anyone joins the US army at all.
There will never be a draft because if there was they would have to draft equal numbers of females (equality) and females risking their lives would never be acceptable.
So 15,000 Haitians are in one small town in Springfield, and the citizens of that town are supposed to be told to join the army and defend the Haitians?
It’s never going to work.
“forgotten how to quickly gather hundreds of thousands of men under arms”
So it ls men now, eh? Or rather, mostly working class white men.
“Thank you, Mister Atkins, when the band begins to play.”
Plus ça change, indeed. We saw exactly the same in Ukraine, home to some indomitable feminists. Atl the way upto the point when the Russians arrived. Then it was all Oleksandr Atkinsovich.
But might be a tad more difficult this time. At least in 1914, or 1939, or 1805, it wasn’t made as brutally clear to these young lads just how much contempt was reserved for them by society.
Indeed. Especially as it’s become undeniable that that the real enemies of the white working class resides and Washington, or London.
What the author didn’t mention is that historically some of America’s best and more devote fighters came from the southern regions of the country settled by immigrants of ‘fighting mad’ cultures like Scots-Irish. These cultures had generation after generation participate in the military culture. Today, this ‘white male’ constituency has been greatly disparaged in today’s woke culture for being white and (real) male. They have no interest in fighting for this Democrat-made culture. Even today’s military leaders are woke. So their families are telling them to stand down. Hence, the reason why there has been an annual decline of about 15k volunteers.
If you can’t find them, just ask Apple or Meta. They know where everyone is. AI can probably tell you where they will be tomorrow.
I’m only half joking about this. Really interesting essay though.
You can add the dating app owners to that list.
First of all i’m heartened to know that the US government don’t know where it’s people are.
Re. conscription, if I was of the right age I would not go along with conscription from any government. I simply would not trust their reasons for going to war against what they may call the enemy, who in a few years time might be a trading partner or tourist destination. Unfortunately that means I would have to see the enemy on the beach before I respond. But still, I would not demand others go to fight on behalf of some shifty geo-political posturing.
“War is a continuation of politics by other means”… Clausewitz.
That is, and has always been the case. However the rulers tell the ruled that wars are for right, justice, democracy..anything good, but the truth which is they are merely political manoeuvres.
The lies are comfort blankets for those who fight, and the families of those killed, in order that they can feel there was a true and just purpose to it. There never is.
And we always have God on our side.
“There never is” ???
Wrong… sometimes there is…tricky bit is sometimes time has to pass before the – “There is” is apparent. Pop back to 1939 Germany and ask a Jew.
No need to go to 1939, there were plenty of Jews getting involved since October 8, 2023. Unfortunately, there are many as well who don’t seem to care if Israel will continue to exist.
1939 was probably the one exceptional “just” war, with a couple of truly dishonourable, evil regimes on the other side.
But, there was a dishonourable, evil regime on the good side as well, probably worse than Germany and Japan if anything, so war is always complicated I guess.
Interesting points made about the logistical problems of re-instating the Draft. I would add that the reasons Western militaries are having issues with recruitment and retention would add to the unviability of a Draft program.
The Draft was based on an economic class system. Abled bodied young men that weren’t doing anything particularly important economically or intellectually were the first to go. As Steve Earle sings in Copperhead Road: “I volunteered for the Army on my birthday. They draft the white trash first ’round here, anyway”. Not to mention the large numbers of young black men.
What would the Draft look like in this age of identity politics? Would there be quotas so that minorities are not ‘overrepresented’? Would low-income whites, a group openly shamed, scorned and disparaged by progressives, make up the bulk of the numbers?
Military recruitment is suffering for several reasons but the decision by some leaders to bend towards a more progressive culture hasn’t helped. An effective – meaning dangerously effective – military can’t abide notions of equity like DEI hiring or “every child gets a prize”. So-called “toxic masculinity” is a feature, not a bug, when it comes to dirty work at the sharp end.
Interesting hint in this article – perhaps all you need do to avoid being drafted is self-identify as female.
Please don’t say this out loud again.
I read that, a few years ago, the Biden admin confirmed that trans identifying men are still subject to the draft but trans identifying women are not.
A federal judge ruled a few years ago that females should, legally, be required to register for the draft, but stopped short of ordering that done.
It would be the height of hypocrisy to order only young men to their deaths, while insisting that young women are their full equals.
Most schemes for a new draft in the U.S. include the option for the young to serve in other organizations besides the armed forces. You can imagine some smart kid who wants to be a doctor choosing to work at a local hospital rather than going in the army. And of course, those with political connections will get preference for civilian organizations. So the possibility of a successful draft is even more hopeless than this article indicates.
Basically, well off kids, females and certain immigrant groups will simply refuse to join and find a way to escape the draft.
It will be primarily White and Black men from poorer families – which was, to be fair, to a large extent true even in the cold war. Difference is, this generation of kids in that social class, have grown up with poor education, lack of access to positive male role models and constant hatred from society for their “toxic” masculinity.
And they would know that once done, they will be dumped on the streets -see the large number of ex vet homeless, even with a small volunteer force.
Even if you convinced them to join, won’t be pretty matching them against peer enemy armies who are brought up better, and in a culture that respects male attributes and patriotism instead of maligning them.
I am a volunteer member of a local Draft Board, have been for 20yrs. Article missed a few steps in the process. Someone who is drafted, must choose to accept or ask for a deferment. If accepted, draftee will take a physical: pass/fail. If a deferment is requested, the draftee must prove his case in front of a draft board. If denied, draftee can appeal to a different hearing board. This will take some time.
Big issue is the cost. The USA cannot afford adding tens of thousand into the military for a conventional war. The infrastructure doesn’t exists. The money doesn’t exist. The social turmoil a draft will create will tear the country apart. Those drafted will be the same demographic group that always fight our wars. Future problem is that those who serve are no longer passive in accepting their fate. Those who return from the fight will make displeasure with those who avoid service quite public.
In other words, they’ll bring the war back home with them. This is exactly what America needs! Where should I tell everyone to sign up?
“The same demographic group” that fought as conscripts in the last 3 major wars are unlikely to fight for racialist socialism, censorship, open borders, modern feminism, and a ruling elite that views them with contempt.
Why would they?
Let me see…
According to the article the draft would be a non-starter because the bureaucratic infrastructure is no longer there.
There’s a small but growing movement to persuade people that university courses are not worth the money.
Religion in the USA is still strong but growing weaker and the ‘nones’ are increasing.
Many bridges are dangerous because no money has been spent on maintenance.
Presidential election shenanigans have exposed how valued ‘democracy’ has become.
Who would enthusiastically join the military if they could avoid it? There’s no American Dream to underpin it.
The Vietnam draft was one of America’s worst ideas because it exempted the elites, the kids in college, who then went on to undermine the draftees. How ugly is that? Many of them have not improved with age, such as John Kerry.
How well would any western country fare with a military draft? We’ve all raised comfy, spoiled, developmentally arrested, elites.
‘ Today, a majority of Americans are essentially immune to being prosecuted without any intention on their part: they’ve simply moved away from their parents without notifying the SSS, and now the government has no idea where they are. ‘
But obviously all the elections are totally honest, as nobody can vote in a state they do not live in.
Why would anyone in their right mind get involved with the present-day woke military and the woke bureaucrats who control the military? The Neo-Cons have no concept of the value of human life. Ukraine is a glaring recent example. Fight to the last Ukrainian indeed! Lindsey Graham let the cat out of the bag when he started dreaming of getting access to the trillions of dollars in natural resources up for grabs in Eastern Ukraine.
I don’t agree that it is impossible for a large country like the US to keep a basic overview of where its citizens are. You could, for example, tie a current and accurate registration of your primary address to the ability to get other, important things in your life done (voting, opening a new bank account, registering with a new doctor etc.). That would probably move people to keep their registrations up to date.
The biggest stumbling blocks to this are cultural attitudes to state control and supervision of its citizens – which, in traditionally very liberal countries like the US and Britain, are quite neuralgic. It’s incompatible with their basic idea of a state’s relationship to its citizens.
When I first moved to Austria, I found it weird that I had to register myself here, there and everywhere and that carrying an ID card around with you just in case the police stopped you was completely normal. It’s just part of the social contract and the deal you accept when you live here.
I can’t think if a good enough reason for a government to know where people are at all times. More importantly, my feeling is that the social contract has been broken, I’m sure you didn’t mean neuralgic, but i’m not sure what you did mean.
I did mean neuralgic, as in pain felt along a nerve. And your response to my thoughts underlines the reason why I used that word. I am guessing from your name that you come from the liberal Anglosphere where the state (traditionally at least) generally lets its citizens get on with their lives undisturbed and so the thought of a state knowing where you are/being able to verify your identity at any point messes with your central systems of understanding about what a state should and shouldn’t be able to do.
I’m used to another system now and find the British/American approach to such things slightly hysterical and under-organised.
Neuralgic is the perfect word. Thinking about state control of my life is like the worst pain you get in the dentist’s chair.
Perhaps, if you squint, the USA and the UK are based on Common Law where you may do anything that is not forbidden but in the EU, based on Roman Law, you may do only what is permitted? Roman Law implies that the State needs to know where you are and what you do in case you are doing something ‘not permitted’.
Of course you could argue that the global elite are keen to remove traditional liberties based on Common Law… just look at the desire to control what may be spoken freely.
I’m not certain that the US is based on commom law in that you can only do what is permitted by the constitution rather than simply anything which is specifically proscribed. Also is the US legal system based on the principle of precedent as is the case in the UK?
The US Constitution is a restraint on the government, not the people. And, yes, it is based on precedent, but the Supreme Court can overturn precedent.
USA legal system is based on a combination of English Common Law, French Civil Law, and Constitutional powers application. Each state have different emphasis. Even the federal legal system apply laws differently among the various district and appellant courts.
In the US we have, thankfully, fifty separate States. Each is a potential wrench in the works.
If ever there was an honest accounting of where masks were actually being worn during the pandemic, as opposed to where they were “mandated”, I think you would see my point. Much of the US just quietly ignored such mandates.
I certainly did.
Not enough people ignored the mandates. And many, led by VP candidate Walz, encouraged people to rat out the offenders. It was an awful display of sheep and rats.
Pure BS. So much BS it reads like an immigration article. Yet it is incidentally correct.
The IRS is perfectly able to track almost every american and punish those who try to default on their obligations.
When there is a will, there is a way. Yet the elephant in the room, which you conveniently forget, is that there is no will.
I think Vietnam planted the seeds of a collapsed America. Because upper class city dwellers dodged the draft, and got away with it. We would have the same issue if the draft was reinstated, numerous demographics would dodge the draft agressively and the resentment against clandestine passengers would undermine the legitimacy of the draft, and of the state itself.
This is not an insolvable problem though, Switzerland solved it through a “military tax” levied on whoever was not drafted, for whatever good or bad reason.
I’ve no idea how many 18 years olds there are the United States but in 2022, there were approximately 21.64 million people between the ages of 15 and 19.
Neither does the writer tell us how many recruits the current recruiters need although he does mention – “to quickly gather hundreds of thousands of men under arms”. Presumably that would also include women.
So if half a million are required over the first three years, that doesn’t seem to be an administrative task that’s impossible to achieve.
And ‘Bounty hunting’ is legal in most of the USA.
Also, a few weeks ago I went with a friend to do the ridge walk on Changchong mountain. There’s a bit of a road walk at first after leaving the tiny bus station, down the hill towards us came several thousand high school and university students all dressed in camouflage uniforms of different shades of blue, (presumably so they’re more easy to find if they get lost). This was part of a curriculum subject called ‘Military Theory and Practice’ that lasts for 2 weeks. It was 25 minutes of a continuous stream of ‘marchers’ and a further 5 minutes or so for the stragglers, before we came across the final group of a dozen or so sitting with their ‘guard’ at a café.
About 35% of China’s 2 million military personnel are conscripts serving for two years.
https://www.trip.com/travel-guide/attraction/kunming/changchong-mountain-ecology-park-15304393
Great article, and very hard to disagree with anything in it. Except the ability to track the location of any putative conscriptee.
4 years ago we saw how the social media giants fell in line with what Government asked them to do, and practically no one is exempt from surveillance by the Great Eye of Google et al. How much easier (and more useful) will their compliance be this time?
Here’s another take…I would NOT ALLOW my son to register for, submit to, or fight in the US military for ANOTHER war on foreign soil for a cause that has little or nothing to do with the defense of his country or nation. And there are many, many more that intend on doing the same. And for context, I’m a former Marine. Not some patchouli smelling hippie.
Finding everyone is easy. The universal identifier in the US is the Social Security number. Almost every citizen and legal resident has one. The credit bureaus harvest every single one of those numbers and they update the corresponding address data constantly. Driver’s licenses are similarly almost a de facto nationwide ID too. When you move to a new address or state you need a new driver’s license, or you’re handicapped at whatever you try to do.
Then add in all the online databases, especially those like Palantir and Google and anonymity these days is almost an oxymoron. The article was interesting, but the basis of its pessimism is overdone.
Agreed, I don’t think it would be hard for the USA to gather a few hundred thousand draftees if there were ever a situation dire enough for such a program to even be instated.
Nobody in the United States is seriously considering bringing back the draft.
Think tanks are like fashion houses. Their ideas are haute couture items that no one will ever wear. They might influence the cerulean blue of your sweater but everyone is still going to be wearing sweaters.
I wouldn’t mind compulsory service after high school with no option for college deferment. That gives all young people a common experience and helps to orient people who need direction. Another two years of maturity prior to college is bound to provide positive impacts. Any war we commit to must include the sons and daughters of all sitting politicians, no exceptions or exemptions.
I enjoyed the hat-tip to Ozymandias.
As I understand the current state of our young men (as women are exempt from the draft), with many overweight, many not physically fit, many lacking an effective high school education (they may graduate, but their skills are below their peers of the last century), many depressed, many with substance abuse issues, and many with criminal records, that the US military has had to lower its standards to enlist recruits, and still misses its targets.
At the beginning of the Ukraine War, and at the beginning of the Gaza, polls conducted here in the United States showed that large numbers of young people would not serve. The reasons vary including developing PTSD, getting disabled, or simply not wanting to support what the United States has become to them.
It would not solve the draft problem but I think it is time for some radical policies. How about no right to vote or receive benefits unless you have given birth to at least 1 child (and have 2 more within 6 years) and/or spent 5 years in the military and stay in the reserves till 40? Limited, of course, to native born citizens.
Would at least mean those willing to fight for or populate their country got some reward compared to the selfish takers.
Jawohl, mein Führer!
Haha this is so insane, don’t even know where to start.
So explain why you think people not willing to fight for their country etc should get to decide whether or not it goes to war.
I think conscription is a very interesting phenomenon, philosophically speaking, because while it may have worked in the past—just as many things have—there are few key aspects we are overlooking today: financial, health issues, and the trust between people not to mention trust with the institutions. Every insurance company knows where you are if you are a driver or Google knows as someone mentioned. But more than that, offer them 100K a year for life to lure them. Offer them unlimited health benefits (since the gig is up and everybody knows what happens to veterans when they get injured and suffer PTSD). But the biggest factor is trust—who would want to go to war alongside someone who doesn’t want to be there? and who would ever trust government since Iraq war and Covid era! but maybe paying them appropriately and providing real health benefits may create a new industry of crippled but compensated.
The problem with the ‘war on terror’ is that it is not a war on terror, but a war to protect the terrorists.
This piece demonstrates very well how the US, its society and the Republic, have changed since the early 1960s. People throughout most of the Western world, but particularly the middle class (to say nothing about the really privileged), have no interest in the duties but only the privileges of citizenship. The idea of bringing back the draft in any country that has dispensed with it is a joke.
If the government was more honest and represented the people in a more genuine way than treating them as dupes they might take their “duties” more seriously.
Frightening but fantastic article !To imagine a modern state not knowing who and where its citizens are is surrealistic.