(BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
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For dozens of families in Israel, this weekend will bring joy; for scores of others, it will be bittersweet. Binyamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, will have his own swirl of emotions. The Israeli prime minister will want to take credit for reuniting 50 hostages with their families — but not too much, because the deal is unpopular with some of his Right-wing voters. Joyous scenes of Israelis returning home will be laced with stories of the trauma they have endured, a reminder of the colossal security failure over which Netanyahu presided last month.
Two things have been constant throughout Netanyahu’s long stint in power. He is notoriously indecisive, especially when it comes to military and security matters, and he is obsessed with his political survival. Those characteristics coloured his approach to hostage diplomacy, and to the broader war in Gaza. He is presiding over perhaps the most fateful moment in Israel’s history in half a century, an unprecedented situation that calls for clear, decisive thinking. And he is doing so at a time when he is historically unpopular (and under criminal indictment, to boot).
The agreement between Israel and Hamas began on Friday morning with a truce that will last for four days. Each afternoon, Hamas will release around a dozen hostages; for each one, Israel will release three Palestinians from its jails. After the initial four-day agreement, Hamas has the option to release additional captives. Each 10 that it frees will secure another 24 hours of quiet. It could prolong the lull by days or even weeks if it was so inclined.
It took weeks of negotiations to reach this point. At first Hamas leaders pushed an “all-for-all” deal: all of the hostages in exchange for all of the Palestinians in Israeli jails (they numbered about 5,200 before the war). On October 20 it did release two hostages, a mother and daughter with dual American-Israeli citizenship. That was a result of American pressure on Qatar, the tiny Gulf state that hosts some of the Hamas leadership. Three days later, it released a pair of elderly Israeli women — ostensibly as a humanitarian gesture, more likely as a public-relations move and a way to put pressure on the Israeli government.
Then Israel began its ground offensive in Gaza, and the negotiations changed. Instead of “all-for-all”, Hamas wanted to trade hostages for a truce. Israel was open to the idea, but only if the number was substantial: at least 100 captives. Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, wanted a lower number and refused to budge. That led to disagreements within the Israeli government.
The centrist members of Netanyahu’s war cabinet — Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, both former army chiefs — wanted to continue negotiating a smaller deal. So did David Barnea, the Mossad director, who represented Israel at the talks in Qatar. On the other side were Yoav Gallant, the defence minister, and the heads of the army and the Shin Bet security service. They wanted to keep fighting and argued that progress in the military campaign would help their position at the negotiating table.
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Subscriberelief of Israeli hostages is good news for the families, but is it good news for Israel. To my mind, there is no alternative to the elimination of Hamas and the Israeli occupation of Gaza.
If and only if Biden does not become the main obstacle
Of you think thats the solution you must know nothing of the issues involved..
Hamas is a cause, not a bunch if people and so cannot ever be defeated.
Asking the IDF to govern Gaza is like asking the SS to govern Warsaw.. That ain’t going to work either..
Try and remember Palestine was effectively free (albeit under Ottoman overlorship) from the river to the sea and in it lived, side by side, in relative harmony, Muslims, Jews and Christians for hundreds of years. Then the British came…
Tell us more about how Israel is like Nazi Germany, I’ve never heard this before, it’s a very original take.
What fantasy story have you been reading?
All points of view on the conflict and this ceasefire are welcome. My own, in response to this article, is that the effect of either on Netanyahu’s political career is the least of my worries.
Hindsight is typically clearer that foresight, and I ask for indulgence. There are a number of what ifs in looking back on October 7th. Surveillance soldiers, all women, reported seeing unusual activity on the Hamas side of the border in the days and weeks before the attack. Their reports seem to have been ignored by their male superiors. Had they been acted upon, even with additional troops stationed near or along the border, the events might not have turned out as terrible.
Hamas has been planning and preparing for this attack for years, so it was going to come sooner or later. However, the intelligence and army failure (why did it take the army so long to get to the border in sufficient strength in a country the size of New Jersey) were surprising and disappointing, to say the least. A different response may have prevented as much death and hostage taking.
I hope there is a thorough investigation as to what went wrong and that people who were negligent and or incompetent are held accountable. This includes Prime Minister Netanyahu and member of his collation.
The only certainty is that when the war is over, Bibi will be thrown out as PM. He is yet another example of how people in political power just can’t give it up. Despite his storied and for the most part successful management of Israel over his long tenure, he will be remembered for this disaster.
Hostage diplomacy will beget more hostage diplomacy. Why reward it, the dynamic you’re making will mean a lot more hostages in the future.
Bibi’s coalition fracturing already and will fall apart the moment he has to face up to negotiating some form of peace with the PLA. And Israel at some point will have to, even if that waits until more of Gaza levelled and Hamas obliterated – the latter essential. Given it clearly can’t be Hamas it’ll be PLA. The same PLA Bibi deliberately undermined by allowing and facilitating Hamas in order to try and kill off the 2-State solution.
The right wing religious zealots in his coalition will walk away from that, and a new Govt coalition will be formed, without Bibi as leader. IDF leaders will be pleased he’s gone when that happens.
No Palestinian “moderate” can lead the Palestinians. The extremists would simply kill him. That leaves an Israeli occupation or an outside multi-national presense; U.N. or Arab League sort of thing. Or complete anarchy.
Very grim prognosis.
Barely s mention of Israel’s wicked, murderous, genocidal massacres of innocent Palestinian women and children.. so typical..
It is to be earnestly hoped that Israel’s N¤z¡ like, bloodthirsty, demons are dumped by Israelis who see that such values just put Israel so low in world standing that it cannot do them any good.. Decent Jews around the world and even Israel’s own decent Jews (15% of its population) find Netanyahu and his devils sickening.
Centre left would be better but I guess anything is better than the current scum.. Top army generals also need to demoted for clear war crimes.. no chance of them being brought to the ICC in the Hague where they belong!
The only possible authority fit to govern Gaza after this will be a UN peacekeeping force.. the IDF, Hamas and the PLO are all clearly unqualified.
The Palestinians have infantilised themselves over the years and need some tough love. Maybe this war will convince enough ordinary Palestinians they need to a deal with Israel – and actually mean it for once. And keep everyone else out of it.
Why do people profess to care so much about Palestinians , but never all the millions of similarly displaced Muslims around the world in the aftermath of WW2.? (Perhaps because they adjusted and got on with their lives?)
But yet always eager to criticise Israel, an actual democracy, but never the corrupt barbaric Palestinians “governments” over 70 years ? No wonder none of the other Arab states in the region want to take them in. Still , I guess it’s so much easier to blame the Brits, anyone, except themselves for their own failings.