The start of a new World War? (Wathiq Khuzaie/Getty Images)
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Less than a month ago, President Biden was asked on camera if the United States could simultaneously bring conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to a palatable conclusion. “We’re the United States of America, for God’s sake,” he responded, “the most powerful nation in the history of the world.” A few weeks later, facing domestic pressure to order Israel to cease its bloody bombing campaign against Gaza, Biden administration officials instead proclaimed their total powerlessness to influence its ally. Similarly, Biden’s early proclamations that America would support Ukraine “for as long as it takes” have run into the brick wall of American political dysfunction: as long as it takes, it transpires, in practice means just under two years.
Different wars with different causes, both Gaza and Ukraine reveal, in their own unique ways, the limitations of American imperial power. Neither would have been launched by either Russia or by Hamas — perhaps with Iran behind it — without the confidence that America’s ability to defend the world it created in its own image was radically weakened. The Pax Americana is already dead: the world is now suffering more wars than at any time since 1945. Worse, a vast gap has opened up between America’s stated commitments to its allies, and its ability to enforce its will: entire nations could be swallowed in the gulf between rhetoric and reality.
To remedy this, we must first cast off the illusions that led us here. In all this recent horror, it has been a salutary experience observing the contrast in reactions summoned up by the punitive air campaigns carried out by America’s geopolitical foes, such as Syria and Russia, and those carried out with America’s military and diplomatic support by its ally Israel. Pundits who rightly condemned Assad’s reckless bombing of hospitals, schools, bakeries and civilian homes now urge us to consider the painful necessity for Israel to bomb the same civilian targets in Gaza. Equally, many of those now loudly outraged by Israel’s air campaign previously welcomed Assad and Russia’s indiscriminate bombing of what they called terrorists in Syria. Objectively, it is difficult to see any significant moral difference between the two campaigns, between their rival sets of supporters, or between the rival great powers enabling them.
Indeed, in just one month, Israel’s air strikes against Gaza, the heaviest bombing campaign since the Second World War, have caused between a quarter and half the deaths of the entire four-year long bloody siege of the similarly-sized city of Aleppo. But it is misguided to view any of this as a failing of the American-led liberal order: it is the American-led liberal order, working as it was always intended to work. Morality is only cited to punish America’s enemies: when it’s America’s allies whose actions disgust the world, nuances and diplomatic cover can always be found.
Yet for all the political damage it has caused the US, it is doubtful whether Biden’s delicate dance — shielding Israel from international condemnation while washing his hands of the bloody results — is even in Israel’s best interests. A month ago, the sheer unbridled bloodlust displayed in the atrocities carried out by Hamas won Israel a degree of international sympathy unseen in decades. It would have taken political dysfunction of the gravest and most reckless kind to have squandered this sympathy, and incredibly, Israel’s government has managed to do so in just a few weeks. Every day, every smartphone in the world brings forth new horrors from Gaza: whole families extinguished, dead children pulled from the ruins of their homes, entire districts reduced to rubble in an instant. Even those supportive of Israel’s campaign to root out Hamas have been horrified by the methods chosen to do so. By inviting such carnage against the Palestinian people, eroding Israel’s legitimacy, Hamas have already won a dark and twisted victory.
Just last week, following the mass killing of civilians in Jabalia refugee camp in an Israeli attempt to strike one Hamas commander, Biden sent his Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Jerusalem to warn the Israeli government that it must take far greater care to avoid civilian harm, telling the cameras in anguished tones: “I’ve seen images of Palestinian children pulled from wreckage of buildings. When I look into their eyes through the TV screen, I see my own children. How can we not?” But on the same day, just as Blinken girded himself to shore up Arab support for America’s position, Israel bombed ambulances at Gaza’s al-Shifa hospital, killing even more civilians and stoking even more outrage. America can neither deter direct attacks on its closest ally, nor rein in Israel’s excessive response: the greatest power on Earth is a helpless spectator to events directly impacting its own standing.
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SubscribeIt is fatalistic drivel like this (following Fazi’s almost identical dirge from yesterday) that will drive me away from Unherd. Two points:
1) “Israel’s government has managed to [squander international sympathy] in just a few weeks.” Did it occur to Roussinos and his ilk that Israel’s assault on Gaza is to eliminate Hamas to protect their own legitimate national security interests, and not to curry favor from international elites, who apparently see Israel as some sort of abstract Euro-American project?
2) “Hamas has already won.” Who cares, if they cease to exist?
3) The alleged decline and fall of Pax American is obviously part and parcel of the Commander in Chief in any period. Obama and Biden have made it clear to the world’s bad actors that they (like Roussinos, Fazi and most Europeans) are ashamed of America and will not deter barbarism through a muscular show of American strength. Indeed, their actions in office can only be explained as an “anti-American” program: open borders (which means no country), defunding police, emptying the jails, shutting down petroleum, fiscal bankruptcy.
I may loath Trump, but in his 4 years the world was (relatively) at peace. The Abraham accords were the only progress we have seen in the Mid-east in my life time. He correctly called out Xi as a predator. The point is, the Pax Americana is only as healthy as the leaders we are blessed or cursed with.
“It is fatalistic drivel like this (following Fazi’s almost identical dirge from yesterday) that will drive me away from Unherd.”
I’ll be driven away from Unherd for a much more mundane reason: they have once again started running adverts even for paying subscribers. Their latest ads have little flashing inserts that make it hard to concentrate on the articles. I accept ads on sites where I don’t subscribe, but not where I do.
Get an Ad-blocker.
Think you’re right – I don’t see any ads on UnHerd. Given I pay, I don’t see why I should.
Ublock origin works just fine. If you like the site, subscribe. Help them out that way.
When you buy a printed newspaper or magazine do you expect it to have no ads in it?
But the printed papers don’t have ads that flash and jump about, it is harder to ignore them than those printed in ink!
I complained about this to unherd and I don’t see them anymore (the blinking ads).
You’re right that printed papers that you buy still have ads, but I think it’s a bit different online – most other online publications that I’m subscribed to don’t show ads to paying readers because they only use online advertising to make revenue from something that is otherwise nominally free to access. That’s why when people pay for something online they don’t expect to see ads. I guess UnHerd really is different from the rest.
Yes, if it is a subscription-driven publication. What makes you think otherwise? Or are you simply overwhelmed by the presence of advertising everywhere else?
I haven’t seen any ads.
I don’t see any ads either. Are you sure it’s coming from Unherd and not from some malware on your computer.
I don’t have ads either.
The Abraham accords are great, but not nearly as significant as the Egypt-Israel (1979) or Jordan-Israel (1994) peace treaties.
You say you loathe Trump. Any reason that actually matters?
I suspect the “loathe Trump” thing is now just the “but, but” common disclaimer. Can’t be seen to give the man credit for anything, including the peace, prosperity, and common sense even those who claim to loathe him enjoyed for four years.
I believe I just did give him credit! But he has done nothing for the country for 3 years now.
That sounds a bit like something an Israeli might have said about Netanyahu. Before October 7th.
But extreme narcissism is not a good trait in a leader; either Netanyahu or Trump. So my fingers are crossed.
Did the peace really have anything to do with Trump?
Yes it must have just been a coincidence. Get help.
Trumps pushing of shale oil and gas lowered oil prices which reduces income for arab oil producers. Saudi Arabia has a very expensive welfare state. Trump understood America’s greatest power is economic and he used it.When oil prices are $20/barrel , Iran, Russia and arab oil producers supporting Bin laden and friends have no money to cause problems. Russian production costs are $18/ barrel onshore $50/barrel offshore. Also makes wind and solar power very expensive.
Crude oil spread – West Texas Intermediate – Wikipedia
I suspect that there’s a large contingent of people that simply consider him detestable because of his personal behavior, his boorishness, his womanizing, his pointless instigating conflicts, his narcissism, his attention seeking behaviors, etc. Some of us are old enough to remember every moronic thing he’s said or done since the 80’s. He was even portrayed as a future President in an animated sitcom as a joke, and that was over 25 years ago before he even entered politics. Much of what he accomplishes is, IMHO, by complete and total accident. I attribute the four years of relative peace as every dictator and aggressor hesitating because they fear the world’s largest military with the 2nd largest nuclear arsenal may well be commanded by a bat sh*t crazy lunatic. Self-preservation is the greatest motivator.
Perhaps ‘no wars’ was good luck. Perhaps containing China was a combination of good circumstances. Perhaps ‘lowest minority unemployment’ was Obama’s doing. Perhaps getting Nato to pay more of their way was an accident. Perhaps a more conservative Supreme Court was just good timing etc. Nothing of the above was anything to do with Trump, after all he was too busy fighting fake russian collusion and fake impeachments
I would similarly suspect Steve Jolly that any successes you have experienced in life has, you would probably freely admit, was all due to someone else.
I would actually. I’m quite the fatalist. I’m of the opinion that most of what happens is out of anyone’s control. It’s not that I believe in complete determinism or predestination or anything like that, more that we’re mostly powerless against forces beyond our control. Our options are invariably limited by our circumstances. We must then choose from these limited options by guessing what the results will be. Sometimes none of the choices are very good. Even in hindsight, we can hardly make a fair evaluation because we don’t know what results the other choices would have yielded.
Then why criticise Trump. He was as president distinctly better than virtually all the presidents we have had in the recent past.
Steve, you may be right that we can’t consistently achieve good results, but I think it’s clear (eg from Mr Biden) that incompetent leaders definitely have the ability to consistently make things worse.
Don’t forget they became energy independent under trump as well, while reducing CO2 emissions more than any other country in the world.
Your’e the man Peter!
To say that Trump was responsible for 4 years of peace around the world is to attribute him with godlike qualities. No man has that much power much as they might like to have.
Clare. Mean tweets or WW3. Choose one.
Why are the allegations of rape against President Clinton and the use of a private server by H Clinton and the Clinton Foundation ignored ? Why was Teddy Kennedy leaving a woman in a car to drown ignored? Appears people are very selective in their criticism.
Israel is almost completely reliant on western backing. If it ever finds that a majority of Americans no longer want to arm it, it will be in deep trouble. Hence the reason PR should play a much bigger role in their activities than it does.
Arrogantly claiming that Israel doesn’t care what others think of it will eventually end up with other countries feeling the same way and withdrawing their support
Why would a majority of Americans ever support barbarians against a civilized Western country? Outside the bien-pensant classes, the racialists, and the leftist anti-semites, no one does. If a country did to us what Hamas did to Israel, we’d level it. Look at what we did to Japan and Germany in WW2.
Israeli society operates under a totally different moral framework, much of which bares no resemblance to the West.
There is more to being like us than simply democracy and capitalism, values also play a major role.
Israel’s current government ministers are completely different to what we’d allow of our own MPs.
Amichai Eliyahu suggested that Israel use nuclear weapons against Gaza.
Itamar Ben-Gvir, a convicted terrorist sympathiser, defended spitting at Christian pilgrims as an ancient Jewish custom. He was the youth coordinator of the Kach party, which proposed that a non-Jew who has a relationship with a Jew should be liable to 50 years in prison.
Bezalel Smotrich has argued for the racial segregation of hospitals. He’s also told Arab members of the Knesset that Ben-Gurion should have finished the job in ethnically cleansing the region in 1948.
Moshe Gafni proposed legislation which sought to imprison Christian missionaries. The man he replaced Yaakov Litzman criminally assisted convicted paedophile Malka Leifer in her attempt to evade extradition to Australia.
Why would I offer my support to a country that elects people with these views? Why are these people whose bombing campaign has killed 3500 children called civilised while the Palestinians labelled Barbarians?
Even the designated terrorists of Hamas only killed 30 children, the IDF have so far killed over 100x that number
Which country doesn’t have any of this sort of person in office? Want to know where you live so that we can scrutinise your lofty ideals. Maybe you should wake up to the fact that politicians are the dregs of society.
Most western countries don’t have that sort of person in office who endorse ethnic cleansing or spitting on other religions, which is the point I was making
Um… check out the USA right now. Rashida Tlaib and her gang of genocidal shouters. And I suspect the UK have a few themselves.
Care to provide any quotes of theirs that specifically encourage genocide?
From the river to the sea is a call to ethnic cleansing and please don’t pretend it doesn’t.
From the River to the Sea is a calll for a one state solution. A real democratic state with equal rights for all it’s citizens.
Israel is not a democracy.
By Hamas who wish to destroy Israel.
I imagine if Biden turned round and said it’s ok to spit on Jews because of what they did to Christ you’d be very critical of that opinion?
Of course I would. Just don’t be so condescending to the readers here.
But you’re not critical of Israeli ministers who condone spitting on Christians simply because of their religion?
Sigh.. yes I am
Wasting your time BB, most around here know nothing about Israel
Have you been to Israel? Has Billy Bob been to Israel? If you have, you should know better.
Yeah that’s objectively wrong. There are people who are violently white supremacist and violently anti-white all over the place in the government and everywhere else in the USA. It’s the cost of our vaunted multicultural society.
That they are.
Politicians often reflect the people who vote for them, it is the media that distorts reality to protect its own interests.
I’m no fan of Ben-Gvir, Gafni nor Eliyahu but the latter’s remarks were not a call to nuke Gaza I listened to the radio interview and he was asked, “would dropping a nuclear bomb solve the problem” He answered, “well, that’s one way but…..” It was a stupid remark for an intelligent man to make but was not a call to drop the Big One.
We have large segments of the political class who think it’s genocide to restrict children from chopping off body parts.
Malka Leifer is a woman.
Well spotted, corrected accordingly
There were plenty of Americans that suggested reducing the entirety of the Middle East to a smouldering ruin after 9/11. In 2016, Trump suggested suspending all immigration for all Muslims. Even many of us who recognize the threat of radical Islam thought that went a bit too far. There are and have always been ultranationalists in every European government as well. Look at Jean-Marie Le Pen or Geert Wilders.
It was suspending immigration from certain countries, not a blanket Muslims ban.
According to Israel’s own figures, published in Haaretz, no child under the age of 4 was killed in the October7 raid. Nearly half of the casualties were Israeli military and police. An unknown, but major proportion of the casualties were the result of Israel’s own counter-attack with tanks and helicopter gunships, firing indiscriminately.
I up voted uou but the system didn’t tegister it
If the thumbs up/down button highlights then it has been counted.
But the vote count may not change, (or, on occasion, may actually decrease) because of how the page refreshes, ie other people’s votes don’t force your display to refresh though yours does, so you are seeing the cumulative effect of more than one vote.
When the numbers are confirmed by a truely independent source, I will believe them.I think you are being truely naive to believe Hamas’ numbers, after the story of the errant rocket and the hospital killing 500 people.
If the numbers were wildly inflated then Israel and America would be releasing their own figures
Why would they bother? You wouldn’t believe them.
Where would they get the numbers from? They would be wildly guessing just like Hamas.
If they keep on adding more and more numbers they’ll run out of people.
You sow the wind, you reap the whirlwind. Ask Germany about it.
I agree, a good post. Unfortunately you can’t change peoples minds’ with facts. A good try though. I have to agree with Chas Stanhope on this one ‘Unherd is becomimg deluged with ‘Sun readers’. Shame
What civilized country are you talking about? I don’t think the US is civilized. On the surface it looks civilized but scratch away the veneer, it’s a failing state that despises huge chunks of it’s citizenry and uses the massive prison system to keep them in some sort of line.
The term “law enforcement” is not a benign phrase about the American “justice” system. It is sign of intent to maintain, what would be called in any other country, fascism.
Here, here
Not a good analogy at all. For countless reasons – not least the fact that those countries became strong allies after WWII, partly because of what we did.
Inicidentally, I don’t recall us levelling parts of Northern Ireland.
I tend to agree. Keep in mind that Unherd is a British website and they face a much different political situation and are host to significant numbers of Muslim refugees and immigrants. It’s a whole different ballgame for them. As Americans, we can shrug off the stupid college kid protests. Americans don’t vote based on foreign policy and never have. Foreigners don’t have a concept of how insular America tends to be. The Hamas/Israel conflict will barely break into public awareness among the common folk. The average American has very little idea of history, geography, or international affairs. However, sympathy for Israel is based on the Holocaust, which is ingrained deeply into the culture. Nearly every American of every class knows about WWII and the Holocaust. Sympathy for Palestine is not deeply ingrained, temporary, and subject to the notoriously short attention spans of the American public. The powers that be have always supported Israel, and know very well they’ll pay no penalty at the ballot box for doing so, provided it doesn’t cost too much or get too many Americans killed. The opposite is not true at all.
Or to Iraq after 9/11.
Thanks for your interesting and thought provoking comments on this subject. Don’t agree with all of them, but valuable that you are saying them nonetheless (and not being shouted down or silenced).
Israel does need some western support. But it has a significant and strong defence industry of its own (and is a significant military exporter) and pretty advanced technology in general. So they are not entirely under the thumb of the US.
Indeed, the author claims that Joe Biden could have told Netanyahu to be more moderate in Gaza and implies that the will (and sense) were lacking. But how does he know a) that this is true and b) that Netanyahu would listen anyway ? Indeed, the delay in the Gaza operation suggests that the US did exert some influence. But Israel is Israel and it seems simply not to be in their DNA to react with maximum force (they always seem to), regardless of whether this is effective or not. Something Hamas would have been well aware of in advance. And doubtless expected – even wanted.
This is precisely the sort of situation which benefits the extremists on both sides and hurst the moderates. I suspect there is little that Joe Biden – or any other US president – could have done to change anything here. Nor that he can actually force a ceasefire.
Doesn’t it take time to mobilize an army? The bombing started almost immediately. And pulling together all those reserves and tanks, that’s lot of organizing and management. We took a lot more time with Desert Storm…
Not 3-4 weeks for the Israelis. Not on past form. They can’t afford to be that slow.
3-4 hours is about all that Israel really needs. It’s a small country and the majority of the population is in very few cities.
The standing army was caught unprepared and took a several hours to start responding effectively. Luckily the existing forces did an amazing job of holding their line to a greater or lesser extent until reinforcements arrived and thwarted a much larger incursion by the Hamas Jihadists. Reserves were mobilized the same day, and Israel is small; it doesn’t take more than 3 hours to drive anywhere. My sons were called up and were in their units within hours. From what I have been told and from what I saw there were tanks and other armour driving up main roads, not waiting for their transporters. The actual invasion of Gaza only started two weeks later when everything was in place.
It doesn’t take time to mobilise an army when you have mandatory national service and have been bombarded night and day by indiscriminate rocket fire, necessitating every single Israeli house to install a concrete safe room, bunker, for their little kids to hide in. People seem to forget that Israel isn’t coming cold into this situation – this is just the final, ghastly straw in a whole generations-worth of attrition.
I’m not saying the US could force anything, ultimately Israel is a sovereign country a free to act how it pleases.
However my point was that due to its geography it needs the backing of the US, Israel on its own would simply be too small to repel a major invasion like that currently undertaken by Russia. Looking long term if it’s actions today disgust a majority of the west and as a result the Americans decide to no longer offer any security guarantees then that invasion becomes much more likely.
If Iran for instance knew America would play no part in a future conflict then it could overrun Israel simply through sheer numbers, irrespective of Israel being technologically superior
That won’t happen.,
Europe is almost completely reliant on America to protect her. If regular Americans had the power to say adios, freeloaders, you’re on your own, you’d be in deep trouble. You think your sunken-chested Just Stop Oil girly boys would protect you? All Israelis serve in the armed forces. They are surrounded by barbarians bent on genocide and take that very seriously, whilst Europe holds the doors open for the scimitar-wielding murderers telling them to their faces we hate you and will kill you.
Europe is completely reliant
To the extent that that is true, it’s because America wants it that way. It’s also not so true – West Europe (I assume you are excluding Russia – who likely would assist the West in a war against the Middle East, but I’ll ignore that for now) has a combined military of around 2 million people (USA’s is about 1.5 million) and 500 nuclear warheads (same as China’s). The population of Western Europe is around 500 million to the US’s 330 and I’ll warrant they are healthier, less obese. Moreover there is a huge manufacturing base in Europe which in the event of a large war, would be repurposed to produce huge numbers of planes, tanks, weaponary – as happened to a stunning extent in WWII.
How many would be fighting on the home front to stop Europe fighting on a Middle Eastern front? They would use the same tactics as Hamas. Does the venue, “Manchester Arena” ring any bells? The US, so far, hasn’t that level of Islamic infiltration, but Europe has.
Europe definitely sponges off America, but that’s largely due to that being how America likes it as it gives it much more influence on the continent and Europe gets defence on the cheap. It’s an arrangement of convenience for both sides rather than an existential must for European countries.
Even in its scaled back state Europe would have too much for the likes of Russia.
It’s completely different for Israel who relies on the threat of American involvement in a future conflict to deter would be enemies. If America washed its hands of Israel there’s little it could do in the face of a full invasion from the more powerful states in that region
Trump tried to get some European nations to pay their fair share and some like Germany held out valiantly like they have done for a few decades now. France, UK and Germany have the 4th,5th and 6th largest GDP’s on the planet and combined wouldn’t last a week against US armed forces. It is down to ourselves to pay our share and be able to stand on our own two feet. I don’t want to be looked after by the US military or their government .
Israel has been attacked by numerous Arab armies and seen them all off and they have been larger in number and at times better equipped too. That’s why Egypt and Jordan have signed peace treaties. Egypt and Jordan know that Israel isn’t the threat but Islamic Jihad is. The Israeli state is now virtually self sufficient in it’s defence manufacturing industries and is now exporting superior equipment around the world. Let’s hope that Israel never gets to a point where they are in genuine fear of losing just the one war as they will no doubt go nuclear
And who are the “genocidal barbarians” today? Israelis! Quelle Surprise!
You do know that Arabs live peacefully amongst Israelis? Your comment is no logical.
Its the progressive problem. Who is going to fight and risk their lives for the brave new world these people envision.
Just Stop Oil? Deary me.Wrong class of person altogether, Alison. You must get a grasp on this sort of thing. As Harry Flashman observed, the British thin red line was recruited from Glaswegian yobs, Whitehall scruffs and Somerset yokels. Today they’re called things like the English Defence League and The Football Lads Alliance. The mainstream media call them far right thugs. To the horror of the more genteel and those who tout intellectual superiority, they are not in short supply. I’m not at all opposed to them myself and when the scimitars come out, I’ll be down at Ladbrookes to put my money on them.
And have done so, repeatedly.
The funny part is that it’s mainly jewish activactists that are behind the changes in Western society that erode support for Israel, open borders being the main one
It’s not just George Soros
Thor, I very much agree with your 1st point: Israel is fighting for their survival, and not for the first time. Their long struggle gives them an attitude and will that does not care a whit about world opinion.
They certainly believe they are fighting for survival – survival of a certain and specific image of Israel. But there are multiple ways that Israel might evolve in the future that this excludes and not even all the Jewish population are happy with the image that’s being pursued. The desire to keep things they way they are seems to overwhelm any thought of how things might be made better for everyone. We saw similar attitudes in Northern Ireland.
Such is the power of fixed ideas and absolute rights. Something we’ve largely abandoned in the UK and struggle to understand now.
I’m always fascinated by those who listen to Hamas, then don’t believe them. I can only think that because they’ve lied so often about Israeli Genocide against Gaza, that when they say they intend a genocide against Israel no one believes them.
Like the US once was. The leader of the FREE world, not the follower of the Zeitgeist.
I agree. Fatalistic drivel. Not sure why the author thinks this conflict will tarnish the image of Israel and the US. Arab countries hated Israel and America before the war and will hate them after. Fortunately for the west, many of these countries hate Iran and Hamas even more.
If you can’t stand a whiff of reality you are going to be shocked when your preferred “reality” fails to arrive. The world is witnessing a genocide in real time and Israeli politicians have admitted as much in their stated aims to drive the Palestinians out of Gaza.
The reason that the Zionists and America are hated is because they are committing this genocide, having never desisted from stealing Palestinian land or terrorising their population for decades. They have had press conferences justifying this genocide. How this polishes up their reputation is a mystery to me. Their reputation will continue to sink as long as the murder of innocents continue.
There was always the chance to calm things down through the “two state solution” but very little effort was expended to enable this and great energy was expended to ensure that it couldn’t happen.
If your security is dependent on an foreign armada lurking off your foreshore or nuclear weapons that will devastate your own country, I would say that you are in a great deal of bother and should perhaps look for some alternative path.
I’m not holding my breath.
There was always the chance to calm things down through the “two state solution”
The two-state solution has always been a fantasy of Western liberal politicians. The Arabs were never going to accept any version of it, and the Israelis, who know this conflict is existential and not capable of mediation, only went along with it to show willing.
The Mizrahi Jews were the victims for a thousand years. Now the shoe is on the other foot. Karma.
Peter Hitchen’s agrees with you. Though I usually treat anything Hamas/Fatah says with a few sackfuls of salt, I do believe them when they say they intend to wipe Israel and its Jewish population off the face of the Earth. No State which is only 15 miles wide at its narrowest is going to allow another state with attitudes like that to be formed on its borders. Fortunately Hamas/Fatah are so well steeped in hatred of the Jews they too won’t accept it.
It is unbelievable that a supposedly intelligent person could write such drivel. As anybody who has experienced war will tell you, war is horrific. But one thing is for sure: the IDF takes more care not to harm civilians than any other military including the US (witness what the US did in Iraq). The IDF gives warnings of bombings, etc… What other country does that. The bombs are as accurate as current technology allows, and that means they are super accurate. Hamas, and Hamas alone is responsible for the death of any Palestinian civilian in Gaza given that they are forcible preventing many from fleeing to South Gaza (an escape route that is protected by the IDF) and they have purposefully built their tunnels, bunkers, rocket launchers, etc…. under civilian locations including hospitals and schools.
Lastly, I would advise you not to succumb to Hamas propaganda. Anything that Hamas says in terms of civilian casualties, including women and children, I would take with a grain of salt. ake for example the so-called hospital bombing where Hamas claimed that the IDF had killed 500 patients. Well it wasn’;t the IDF but of of Islamic Jihad’s misfired rockets, and the rocket hit the parking lot, not the hospital, and the total number of deaths was 50 and not 500. Perhaps, just perhaps, it’s time to cool it before reacting to what the IDF is doing in response to an attack by Hamas of such barbarity that it is simply unimaginable to modern western eyes, especially those of the bine-pensant living in the comfort of London or NYC.
Even the BBC seemed to have a hard time making Israel look bad as they reported on the phone call from Israel Intelligence to an Arab doctor warning him to get the civilians out of the line of fire.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67327079
‘Mahmoud could not understand why his neighbourhood had become a target. “I tried my best to stop him. I asked, ‘Why do you want to bomb?’
“He said, ‘There are some things that we see that you don’t see.'”
The man did not explain what he meant.’
Perhaps the large holes in the ground which appear much larger than a bomb crater where tunnels may have caved in held the answer?
The BBC didn’t seem interested in those, and didn’t enclose them in their ‘red lines’ on the photo.
Odd given that the buildings looked rather like the end result of a demolition expert’s ‘controlled explosion’. They collapsed vertically.
The large black holes outside the red lines more like where the bombs struck.
After the drivel you’ve come out with here, perhaps it would be better if you did just hold your breath instead.
Helpful for altitude training.
Given that Israel is supposedly conducting a genocide against Gaza, the photo in this BBC report is intriguing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67327079
Unlike Ukraine where seeing a buliding in once piece is rare, in this picture it really is a ‘surgical strike. There also appears to be a lot of other buildings surrounding which are high enough for Hamas to chuck off any of the Gays for Palestine who turn up to give their support in person.
Seriously. Way more people are being killed in Syria and Yemen right now. The world is forever ignoring atrocities. The Arab world hates Israel and America, and maybe for good reason, but this conflict isn’t changing any of that.
Trump tried to normalize relations between Israel and Saudia Arabia and Iran used its Hamas proxy to destabilize that relationship. But ya, Israel and America are the only bad guys here.
Seems you don’t know much about historical efforts of a two State Solution. From the beginning of the creation of Israel (1947), the Arabs had the opportunity of a two state Nation. Many times the Palestinian leaders refused to sign an agreement, because it would have meant to recognise the Nationhood of Israel.
IF driving the Palestinians out of Gaza is Genocide why no outcry about Armenian’s and Gorno Karabakh?
Farsi mistakes Militant Islam for Real Politik. Understandable because the Iranians and Palestinians mix the two, BUT, when Real Politik meets Sunni/Shia Religious conflicts, you’ll probably discover that half the Muslim world would happily rejoice, but privately and quietly, were Israel to nuke Tehran.
All you need to know is that Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon all refuse to accept Palestinians – all 3 have fought with Palestinians who on being given sanctuary within their borders promptly set about carving out new ‘Palestines’ in the lands of fellow Arabs.
Peter Hitchen’s (I always thought his brother smarter, but more and more I find Peter has more grasp of reality and less ideology) recent interview is interesting. He says the only solution to the Palestine/Israeli wars will NOT be a formal solution. It will be the informal contacts that ordinary Jews and Arabs produce when working alongside each other. Hamas/Fatah probably know that, and which is why they are even more oppressive of their own people that the Israelis are, and regularly stage some atrocity to close Israel’s borders to their fellow Arabs.
The article is about present-day America’s inability to achieve its stated foreign policy aims, promising too much, and the rest of the world drawing its own conclusions. Whether or not we think that’s a good or a bad thing, that is what is happening. A less stable, multi-polar world is emerging. If you want to go on denying reality that’s up to you, but you’ll be writing yourself out of the conversation.
Well said Andy.
My comment was in response to someone who said the conflict will further reduce the global image of Israel and the US, which I believe is nonsense.
Many Arab countries cheer behind the scenes that Israel is taking out Hamas. They hate Iran and its allies. All this talk about “the Arab Nations hate Israel” is vastly exaggerated.
I would suggest they do hate Israel. Some might hate Iran and Hamas even more though.
“There is a great deal of ruin in a nation” was Adam Smith”s calm response in 1777 when an overexcited student rushed in and announced that Burgoyne had surrendered to the Americans and Britain was ruined.
I could write a much longer list of the challenges the West will face in the next decade than Mr Roussinos has included in this article but there is a difference between recognising a challenge and succumbing to despair.
Our ancestors would have said instead that it was time to “gird our loins” I have never been entirely sure what this involves. It sounds slightly uncomfortable. But anything is better than accepting the conclusion of this “fatalistic drivel”.
Incidentally, for non historians, Britain did OK in the century after 1777.
“Incidentally, for non historians, Britain did OK in the century after 1777.” Indeed they did, but how do you think a re-run of the Opium Wars might turn out nowadays?
We got a taste of that this very morning when the new Lord Mayor of London, one Michael Mainelli, pontificating of Radio 4, said that it was “commendable” that Lloyds of London should be shelling out $65 million as ‘compensation’ for the past sins of slavery!
Whatever next?
Badly if you mean Britain vs. China. In the 1840s the RN had steam powered warships and the Chinese had not yet upgraded their junks. Now the Chinese Navy is a lot larger and more advanced than ours. Fortunately, if one pushes the analogy, the conflict would be USN vs Chinese Navy. A more even match. Anyway, the Chinese do not need a military success to increase drug imports into the US; that is happening just fine without one.
I think the US and whatever the they cobble together in naval terms would very soon be sunk by the Chinese if any battle took place in their back yard. Their aircraft carriers are essentially obsolete nowadays and probably have been for years (they’re almost always ‘sunk’ in their wargames) and thanks to the Ukraine war the Russians & Chinese have all sorts of technical data regarding Western air defences. There’s plenty of chatter on the ‘other side’ that the Houthi’s attacks on Israel were designed to get the US to use some of their ship AD systems to ‘light up’ and see how they looked too. Of course the US have this info for RF & Chinese systems, but the US will always be at a disadvantage as it insists on playing away from home.
US/UK subs are way beyond anything the Russians or Chinese can produce according to a report I read. In fact we often track both countries subs with ease, reputedly why China got so uptight that we were going to provide the same tech to the Aussies.
The same report says that most of the ‘hype’ of China/Russia capabilities are because the US defence industry likes to stay in clover.
Do you have a link?
The USN’s Ohio class submarines ballistic MRV missiles have a range of over 7000 nm, and thus could vaporise China from off Skegness. That is not “playing away from home “.
Thank you for that. So much of the ‘US is losing its power’ rhetoric seems like barely veiled schadenfreude. If we’re diminished, were does it leave Western Europe? Don’t think that too many people share Thomas Fazi’s love for all things CCP.
Do you have a link for the war games you refer to?
Not going to happen though is it? We aren’t even fighting the ‘Opium’ war in out own country. Though how much the problem is actually Afghanistan’s Opium or China’s synthesised products is moot.
We did loose America and Minorca and a few other places in 1783. Was that “OK” may I ask?
Longue durée history. What are these microscopic details you refer to? British expansionism resumed just in slightly different places over the century 1777-1877 (or 1783-1883 if you want to be pedantic).
1783-1898 to be pedantic!
The statement started as “the century after 1777”. Producing a replacement lasting 115 years may imply that arithmetic was not a strength at your old school.
As the sentence stands it is wrong unless you are an American patriot/rebel, which I somehow doubt?
If you had said post 1783, you assertion would have been on firmer ground n’est pas?
The point I was trying to make was that the over excited student – who incidentally was my ggg grandfather which may prove that poor judgement runs in families – was overreacting and though Britain’s fortunes were in temporary eclipse it bounced back with the Napoleonic Wars, the acquisition of India and the Industrial Revolution.
I take your point that the absolute nadir was 1783 but I don’t think that invalidates my sentence. I am adding grammar to arithmetic on my list.
“Incidentally, for non historians, Britain did OK in the century after 1777.”
Is that an example of Sc*tch grammar? If so where DID you learn it?
Perhaps we should let our grammarian, JOHN SOLOMAN adjudicate?
Scotch is a swear word?
No, who ever told you that?
The correct English collective noun to describe those unfortunate enough to live north of the border.
As in Sc*tch Corner, Sc*tch Egg and so forth.
That great authority Dr Johnson always used it, so why should we differ?
ps. Unfortunately some members of ‘Jocko Nostra’ have whinged to UnHerd and thus the word is often instantly censored!
That would explain why my comment took 12 hours to appear.
Precisely!
We lost America to English men. I suspect had we persuaded Wellington to go over there and command, we wouldn’t have lost it either.
We had another chance in 1812-15 but Wellington declined. He was after all an ‘India’ man.*
(* Or Sepoy General as one Napoleon Bonaparte called him.)
Today I am a full blooded brown Englishwoman( metaphorically only) rooting for the P’s to be smashed on my home turf!!!
And so it has come to past!
With the blessings of the hitherto Empress of India, no doubt, whose Memorial in marble is very near to Eden Gardens..
Another Plassey perhaps?
Thankfully so! Plassey was a deliverance from evil!
Followed by a second splendid innings at Buxar, captained by the splendid Hector Munro!
Yes….all was overall well ( apart from lots of hands in various tills)and the odd violence and Malthusian events( 1770-72) until the” fishing fleet ” and ecclesiastical forces made it dour and boring..
A perfect synopsis, thank you.
An excellent comment. Britain did more than okay after 1777.
I, too, had only a vague idea what was behind the “girding your loins” figure of speech, and you peaked my curiosity. In ancient times, before the advent of trousers and underpants, men wore long tunics, and as any woman who has ever donned a long gown can tell you, it’s not exactly labour or battle-friendly attire. Hence, the fabric of the tunic would be gathered up in front to above the knees, pulled back between the legs, and brought forward to be tied around the waist. I suppose the end result was not exactly stylish, a mix between a nappy and shorts, but it worked, and gave the wearers the necessary freedom to work and fight.
Thanks for that “piquant” description of loin girding!
And thereafter – two world wars?
it means pull up your skirts and get ready to move/run !!
Lets see about your two/three points:
1 & 2: How is that destruction of Hamas going? Who have they killed so far? Who do they expect to trade with once this is all over, let alone who is going to give them more military kit or favoured statuses?
3. US’s muscularity has led to them winning which wars in the last 70 years? How has their recent War on Terror done in restricting the influence of Al Qaeda – who when it started were a few hundred people in the mountains of Afghanistan and now range widely across the Middle East and Northen Africa? Anyone involved should be ‘ashamed’ – Biden, Trump, Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush and beyond – that’s quite a list of poor leaders to be ‘blessed with’ – leads one to think it might be something more than the selection of the odd poor leader. Fatalism? Not in the slightest.
The USA doesn’t actually need to “win” any of these wars though. It is enough to remind people of what they can do.
They can certainly enforce strong trade sanctions and force many countries to go along with them (whether they wish to or not).They can immediately cause serious damage and destruction anywhere in the world at almost no risk of loss of life to themselves.They can remove foreign leaders they don’t approve of.
Not saying that’s always good.
My own suspicion is that regular military engagements are a useful opportunity for “kit testing” and making sure their military is still working. Advanced technical weapons systems need real world testing. The Russian military shows just what can happen if you don’t keep on top of things …
Again, I’m not saying I always approve, just making observations.
Given the casualty figures I suspect it is going to plan. You don’t think Hamas are going to tell you how many of those dead ‘Civilians’ are theirs do you?
This occurred because the ‘terrorists’ were terrified that Israel was normalising relations with too many Islamic Countries. Iran is the issue, curiously their population aren’t quite so keen as their leaders when it comes to Hamas and Palestinians.
Trump’s foreign policies were actually doing quite well in terms of war & peace.
As for trade, it never stops, Ask Iraq, Iran, Russia and most intriguingly of all, ask the BBC what Britain traded with Germany via Switzerland as they fought WW1.
“August 1915 the British bought German binoculars, rangefinders and telescopic sights by the tens of thousands from the Germans in exchange for raw rubber, in trades that took place at the Swiss border. Opposing countries were selling equipment, which would be used to kill their own soldiers.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/articles/4797vh06x16KYYpsLyh7SPx/from-giraffes-to-aerials-on-the-pyramids-nine-unexpected-wwi-facts
Even if they don’t annihilate them, Israel is going to set Hamas back decades, which is probably enough. They MAY drive them out of Gaza, which would be a bonus no doubt, but slowly, and surely they appear to be driving the fanatics underground, literally, which isn’t that great for the fanatics if the IDF then blow underground up.
The Cold War – the one that mattered – was won. You’re welcome.
The Cold War was totally unnecessary. The Soviet Union was always an economic basket case…”Upper Volta with rockets” and miltarily incapable of taking Western Europe even if it had wanted to, which it probably didn’t..
The question is WHO gave the Soviet Union the BOMB?
It’s realistic, not fatalistic. Even the conclusion, which admits that whatever replaces Pax Americana will be worse. But as for Israel, they will win this war but long-term the prospects for their security are not great. It’s all tactics and no grand strategy. The younger generations in the US are very pro-Palestinian, that there is the future of the Democratic Party. I can’t see a Democratic President in 50 or even 20 years time backing Israel the way Biden has.
Well with a friend like Biden who needs enemies, given that he has gone weak at the knees. No surprise given that Biden is no longer capable of thinking rationally, and thee US is being run by a cadre of leftist progressive apparatchniks. As for Israel, it will simply become more and more self-reliant as time goes on. They already make most of their advanced weapons systems, and unlike those made in the US have actually been tried and tested.
I think the Israeli warplanes are F15s and F16s, and the bombs they are dropping are JDAMs. If Sweden can develop fighter jets independently, then so can Israel, but it won’t happen over night.
The Merkava came about when the UK refused to sell parts for their Chieftains.
Odd really when you remember ‘we’ did give them the BOMB.
I doubt Biden knows what day of the week it is. Rumour has it that we are seeing Obama’s 3rd term. but who knows?
The war America lost under Biden was deterrence. Afghanistan withdrawal was a poor strategic decision and a worse signal to the wider world. Sun Tzu “the greatest victory is that which requires no battle”. However, before we jump on Biden’s leadership, the emergence of the current issues can be laid at Obama’s door in my view.
Biden doesn’t appear compos-mentis enough to take blame for anything. The rumour is this is de-facto Obama’s 3rd term.
Yes, I’ve been hearing Michelle Obama might even run for the democrats.
Big Mike?
I expect and hope to read things I don’t agree with on UnHerd, otherwise I might as well create a Twitter account and limit my feed to things I already agree with.
How is that going to work? Is Israel going to kill every Gazan? Because that’s what it will take. And then they have Hezbollah, Isis and god knows how many other lunatics ready to attack, and with a good degree of justification.
“Lunatics” and “good degree of justification”.
What was the justification for Oct 7th, or the Manchester Arena for that matter?
As for every Gazan? How many support Fatah, or did Hamas eliminate every Fatah supporter?
I doubt they did, but they effectively eliminated Fatah. I bet the Fatah supporters they didn’t eliminate won’t be mourning Israel’s elimination of Hamas.
They have the BOMB, and as long as they remember to use air bursts it shouldn’t be too much of problem.
All it needs is the WILL to use them.
Sounds like you’re rooting for Team Jihad. Yeah, I know, colonialist white patriarchy, blah, blah, blah. Queers for Palestine!
They have the BOMB and logic dictates they will use if necessary. Who realistically can stop them?
Please drive away from UnHerd as fast as possible and never waste the time of it’s rational, balanced users with your brainwashed garbage ever again. Fazi is worth incomparably more than you Albro by way of informed, balanced contributions that help us trying to understand a rapidly changing world.
Oh! by the way will the usual brainwashed useful idiots please give me as many downtics as possible. The more of them I get the surer I am that I’m on the right track.
Thanks in advance. (Hoping to break the ton this time!)
Aris is a bit of an acquired taste and certainly not completely to my taste, but I would never describe it as drivel – fatalistic or overly pessimistic certainly but not drivel. However you seem to be suggesting Unherd should only produce articles which tell you what you want to hear – I think you may have completely missed the point of Unherd
Based on the comments,I suspect most people reading Unherd articles and doing so because that is what they want to hear.
I see you brought your “hammer”, well said!
Given how much better Trump was as President,why do you still loathe him?
I appreciate Unherd’s publishing of this piece. It caused me to smile and feel uncharacteristically nostalgic for the myriad of Leftist articles published over past 70 years, each urgently proclaiming – nay, triumphing in dreamily-glorious gaslighting prose – that the end of the West’s influence upon the Earth is at hand…right now…no wait, I mean…right NOW…hold on…okay, we’re ready…RIGHT NOW!
Sadly, critical reasoning skills interrupt my nostalgia to gently remind me that this seemingly-excitable apocalyptic event has never actually come to pass. And so I sigh and think to myself in utter boredom, “oh look, here’s another ‘Workers of the World, unite to look into my eyes and believe every word that I say…and remember to rush out and buy my new book’ gaslighting event.”
That being said, I am surprised these amnesia-prone articles are being pumped out as fast as hands can type these days. It seems that the Leftist Apologists for the New Holocaust Movement are getting slightly nervous: Although their ‘side’ started this war with Israel a little over a month ago, Israel will most likely end it very quickly…and not to the other side’s satisfaction.
Remember:
On 7 October, the Palestinian Government of the Gaza Strip (one of two self-governing Palestinian Territories within the State of Palestine) conducted a surprise act of war against a neighboring nation in direct violation of a mutually agreed-upon ceasefire with said nation and in direct violation of international law.
To be clear – this was no mere ‘terrorist attack’. This was an act of war by one internationally-recognized and UN-recognized Territory of the State of Palestine against a foreign sovereign nation, and the attack was authorized by.the self-governing voice of the people within the aggressor Territory.
While carrying out this act of war, the Palestinian Government of the Gaza Strip allowed the fighters within its incursion force to carry out Holocaust-like War Crimes: Cutting off the heads of babies, placing newborn babies into their own kitchen ovens to slowly roast to a sizzling crisp after the attackers brutally murdered the newborn’s innocent parents, raping teenagers attending a concert and then slitting their throats, burning entire families alive, etc
If a Territory ignores a ceasefire and goes to war with a more powerful neighboring nation via a surprise attack – committing War Crimes along the way – they mustn’t forget: They started a “winner takes all” event that they won’t end on their own terms.
It’s near impossible to argue with this fact.
It isn’t impossible to argue with those ‘facts’ as there hasn’t been a proper investigation of any of them Perhaps you could link me to some of the names of these beheaded babies for instance? I’m happy to stand to be corrected on this, but I’ve not seen any so far and that’s a month after the event. Likewise when the Israeli response was to shell both the hostages & terrorists with tanks and Apache helicopters who can say for certain who was responsible for any burnings alive. War Crimes were committed, but I not going to take the maximalist claims of the Israelis at face value on this. Arse-covering by a humiliated, incompetent government might be in play here – and I think almost certainly is given the nature of the nutjobs we’re talking about.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-19/ty-article-magazine/israels-dead-the-names-of-those-killed-in-hamas-massacres-and-the-israel-hamas-war/0000018b-325c-d450-a3af-7b5cf0210000
Maybe you should do your own ghoulish searching specifically for the names of beheaded babies.
Maybe you also don’t know (because you have your hands firmly over your eyes and ears), that some people have still not been identified – so badly were they mutilated. There are few photos to protect families, but media has been privy to this information.
Thanks I’ve seen that list – all tragic – not seen any confirmation of the ages or the manner of death though. Meanwhile we have this for instance:
https://thegrayzone.com/2023/10/27/israels-military-shelled-burning-tanks-helicopters/
Ah with a quality source such as the grayzone, we stand corrected!
The action photo of the Apache gunship confirms it no doubt. The BBC should be able to identify the Kibbutz from the red burning building in the background when they come to verify it.
Ah, I was right to doubt.
From Lenin to Stalin to Mao to Castro to Che to Pol Pot to Bin Laden and now Hamas, far lefties just love authoritarian regimes who commit mass murder. They’re like groupies backstage at a rock concert. Time for the rest of us to show some guts and put these venal scumbags in their place already.
Why not look up the images?Then report back to us.
I personally know some of the responders who went to the kibbutzim. These are private volunteers and not government employees. They have attended previous terrorist attacks and awful traffic accidents but were all shocked to their very cores at the utter fanatical depravity of the killings so don’t you dare to cast doubt on the atrocities committed by those disgusting butchers of Hamas.
I saw you were -2 so I upvoted but it turned to -6. Ironically, I’ve found the more negative votes you get on Unherd the more you questioned the evidence. Not the more you disagree. Asking questions will not be tolerated!!!! 🙂
So are you as ‘happy to be corrected’ as A D? IF so what exactly would you need to be ‘corrected’?
It would appear only being there and seeing it would be sufficient for A D.
A D Kent –
Thanks for your response.
I realize from your expressed lack of knowledge about events that this is likely one of the first articles that you’ve read about the surprise act of war committed by the State of Palestine against Israel. I appreciate your curiosity and am happy to assist as you start your journey of discovering the facts of the matter.
To bring you up to speed, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more well-documented surprise act of war – and corresponding War Crimes – than this act committed by the Palestinian Government of the Gaza Strip against the sovereign nation of Israel.
Within mere hours after the attack, video footage started to be released from the Palestinian Government’s incursion force.
How is this possible? Well, the incursion force wore GoPro-style video cameras and these cameras were recording real-time events: From when the Palestinian incursion forces were still in the State of Palestine, to when they entered into the sovereign nation of Israel, to when they committed further acts of war against Israel, to when they committed War Crimes against civilians, to when they were either killed by Israeli forces and their videos were recovered (still recording) or to when the Palestinian soldier returned to the State of Palestine to provide their footage to their government for now-released Palestinian Government videos of the attack.
Independent news organizations across the world have analyzed and confirmed video geotagging/ locations of the events on these videos.
Furthermore, Israeli civilians were texting and videoing in real-time during the surprise attack. As an example, look up the videos of innocent civilians attending a concert in Israel as the Palestinian Incursion force initiated their act of war – and War Crimes – against Israel.
To further assist you, I performed a one-second google search that gave me merely one of innumerable independent news sources:
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2023/middleeast/hamas-attack-body-cam-videos-invs-dg/
Again, the War Crimes of the Palestinian Government against innocent civilians and their official act of war against Israel in direct violation of the ceasefire is likely the most thoroughly documented first salvo of a war in existence – because of the innumerable and independently sourced Palestinian GoPro and Israeli civilian videos and texts.
Hopefully you found my post helpful and I wish you well as you continue your journey of discovery about this mass-extinction event carried out by the State of Palestine against the sovereign nation of Israel.
“I’m happy to stand to be corrected on this,”
For some reason, I doubt that statement.
Ugh. Do we really need to count beheaded babies. If there was only one, I guess it wasn’t an atrocity then.
“Cutting off the heads of babies, placing newborn babies into their own kitchen ovens to slowly roast to a sizzling crisp after the attackers brutally murdered the newborn’s innocent parents…”
I would merely point out that the sick sadists who did this would in all probability, have murdered the babies in front of the living parents thus maximising the thrill of killing.
Unless of course they shot the parents first before realising. According to one of the journalists at the screening, the biggest ‘intake of breath’ was at the shooting of an apparently friendly dog that approached a gunman. Maybe A D and friends need to see the dog’s body?
Well said. Couldn’t agree more with you and the way you put things into perspective.
I think the guy sounds absolutely deranged.
Ah, yes. A crude expression of a depressingly unoriginal ad hominem attack because one cannot coherently form a debate rebuttal to my post.
I can only shrug and passively observe: What else can be expected in this day and age when ‘feels’ triumph over logic and facts? Embarrassing, but sadly the norm.
That said, I hope you have a wonderful weekend Unherd Reader and I appreciate your contribution, such as it is! 🙂
How so?
Payback’s a motherfucker.
Just to clarify, the above statement refers to what Hamas have brought on themselves. The depravity of them putting their own people in the middle of this war speaks for itself.
“Objectively it is difficult to see any moral difference..’
Between a dictator bombing his own people (Assad) and a sovereign nation that has been attacked going after its assailants in self-defence, having warned civilians that they need to evacuate (Israel)?
Difficult to see any significant moral difference? Really?
Both are regimes that seem happy to kill hundreds of civilians in order take out a couple of their enemies
I guess you just expect the Israelis/Jews to just lay back and take it. After 1933-1945, I think the Jews have rightly said “no more”. Perhaps, since you are clearly so pro-Hamas you should fly over to Gaza and help them. Let’s see how you fare. I suspect not to well as you would probably be rapidly thrown off a roof in short order, if any high rise buildings still remain in Gaza.
Loads of high rise buildings remain, here is an article by the BBC on Israel’s warnings to evacuate. Unlike photos of the Ukraine, this one shows what appears to be a very ‘surgical strike’ – and as you can see plenty of high rises remain to chuck off any LBGTQIA+H brigade volunteers for Gaza who are daft enough to go there.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67327079
The civilians in Gaza are abused and used by their own government aka Hamas. Hamas is using civilians as human shields, hospitals and schools to store weapons and to disguise entrances to their elaborate tunnel labyrinth.
The fact that more than half, or 57%, of Gazans continue to have a positive attitude towards Hamas as of late October 2023, is very troubling to say the least. It also begs the question how innocent these civilians who support a terrorist group really are! https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/polls-show-majority-gazans-were-against-breaking-ceasefire-hamas-and-hezbollah#:~:text=Overall%2C%2057%25%20of%20Gazans%20express,view%20of%20Fatah%20(64%25).
Hamas targetted civilians. Mind you I suppose the definition of Civilian may differ, atfer all the Manchester Arena was a legitimate target for an Islamist bomb, but to me it seemed to be full of young girls. (Why do they so hate young girls? They even paraded one, dead, naked and defiled to the delight of the Gaza public it seems.)
As for Israel wanting to Kill civilians, not according to the BBC
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67327079
The Left has always had a special definition of morality. I seem to remember that the various Communist experiments of the 20th century resulted in almost 100 million deaths. But these victims died for the cause, sacrifices on the altar of ideology, and that apparently makes it alright for our “moral friends” on the left side of the fence. Coincidentally, the farther left they are, the more okay they seem to be with this part of their history.
For the record: I completely agree with you that there is a significant moral difference between a sovereign nation under attack defending itself, and a dictator killing his own people.
Literally no one on the Left defends Stalinism or Mao. The Right and colonialism and imperial war however….
The left think Morals are pictures painted on walls.
150m at least.
> You need to evacuate
> Where? How? When? We’re fenced in.
> Sorry, what was that? I didn’t hea-
BOOM! BOOM! BOOM!
Absolutely astonishing the mental leaps people will make to justify Israel’s behaviour.
So how is the population of Gaza doubling every ten years, if they are being annihilated.
Maybe they should run to the bomb shelters. Oops. Forgot they don’t have any.
Its a propaganda piece. It doesn’t seek to make sense only spew narrative.
Biden’s calls for a ceasefire are another example of his kowtowing to the far left of his party. His weakness is he is afraid to stand up to them. Mr. Roussinos complaints about American hypocrisy reminds me of Inspector Renault in Casablanca. I am shocked, shocked there is hypocrisy going on here.
The author conveniently forgets that Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons against his own people and was quashing a revolution against his dictatorial rule. Israel was attacked and 1400 innocent civilians were massacred. They are trying to root out a terrorist organization that has threatened to repeat many times over the Oct 7th massacre. I am tired of people who wring their hands about civilian casualties in war, they are inevitable. If Hamas wanted to avoid them, they wouldn’t have started a war. The world cares more about Palestinian lives than Hamas does.
There is a huge moral difference between Syria and Israel and those that refuse to see it are immoral.
Well said
Biden has no idea what he is doing, he is the puppet. Who pulls the strings is moot. As I said previously, rumour has it that this is basically Obama’s 3rd term.
How about the West just grows a pair and stops caring what Hamas and Russian sympathizers think? Give Ukraine and Israel everything they need to win and say sod off to those who hate our civilization. A great start would be expelling non-citizen Hamas sympathizer, and having the police break up demonstrations that call for genocide with trunchions and tear gas.
The problem there is that The West doesn’t have the miliary wherewihtall to do that now – certainly not to the Russians.
That nonsense. The US has thousands of tanks, IFVs, artillery systems, and fighter jets in reserve that we will never use again and will pay to dispose of. We have 10 millions cluster munitions that we are planning to dispose of. Send it all.
Ukraine will not win the war no matter what the US does, and it’s not meant to. Its only purpose is to make mad stacks for the power players.
Ukraine may not ‘win’, but Russia lost in the first few weeks of the ‘special operation’. Putin almost certainly deeply regrets starting it – what a waste of Russian lives, materiel, credibility, with only the puniest of upsides. If he does not, it is testament to his weakness of character.
“Israel’s war”??? Hamas butchered innocent Israeli civilians and this is Israel’s war?? What, in God’s name, will it take for people like Roussinos, Fazi, and other terror apologists to wake the f*ck up? Deep-pocketed organizations are paying stupid children to march through the streets of civilized countries wearing keffiyahs and bearing crisp new “Palestinian” flags. Are Roussinos and his ilk among those cashing dirty, blood-soaked cheques, or are they just tragically simple?
Another Manchester Arena concert?
Something tells me you won’t have to wait long.
So Israel should have turned the other cheek in order to retain some sympathy? To what end? Till the next attack? Israel had absolutely no alternative but to go to war. What drivel.
Roussinos also refers to Ukraine’s “war aims” as if they started it, when a simple “defence of ones country” would suffice. He’s lost any right to respect as a journalist with this article. I don’t dispute Unherd’s right to publish it, since it helps us clarify those who’ve previously hidden their mendacity beneath a bushel.
Between him and Fazi… good grief. Antisemitic Apologists of the World Unite!
I didn’t realise criticising Israeli policy was antisemitism, which I always understood as disliking Jewish people solely because of their religion
I mean this in the kindest possible way, but the author is a moral imbecile.
Perhaps you could write a counter essay and explain why you think he’s wrong? If he’s such an imbecile it should be easy to prove him wrong I assume
You could try reading the other comments to this article which amply elucidate why you are wrong. Also, see the Piers Morgan-Douglas Murray interview on YouTube for a perfectly clarified description of the Hamas-Israel war.
I saw it yesterday. Murray was literally grace under fire – rockets were flying over his head and he calmly continued after a brief all-clear. Morgan makes my teeth itch, but I endured him in order to hear Murray’s lucid assessments of reality.
The problem with Piers Morgan is (I think, but am not sure) is that he is playing the part of an A D Kent. He asks the same questions. Where the ‘think’ is, concerns whether he is ‘playing’ or no, so, unlike A D, probably doesn’t need correcting as he already knows Hamas did all that they claimed they did.
I like Murray, however I disagree with him in regards to the conflict. For a man that’s regularly championed free speech and rightly bemoaned cancel culture, I’ve found his opinions regarding wanting to effectively ban the pro Palestinian marches to be rather hypocritical.
Israel is in an awkward spot geographically (although let us not forget it was the Israelis themselves that set up shop there very recently) but in my opinion that doesn’t give them the right to do as they please to others in the region. Hamas which is a proscribed terrorist group killed 30 children in their barbaric attack, Israel is a supposed civilised state and has so far killed 4000 children in its response
The marches are calling for ethnic cleansing and jihad. Are you not watching the footage?
As for the tedious and ignorant ‘proportionality’ argument, firstly can you even acknowledge that one side deliberately targets civilians and the other doesn’t? Secondly, you do know that wars have always been won by people killing each other? 600 000 German civilians were killed in WW2 – do you think the Allies should have rather let Germany win?
if we take the Gaza Hospital/Errant rocket incident. Hamas said 500 were killed; it was however shown to be 15. If we use that same ratio of error the number of children killed would be 120.
Here we go again with ‘everything was fine til those pesky Jews showed up in ’48’. For f**k’s sake man, learn a little history before getting up on that high horse of yours.
4,000 years is recent?
This piece is almost ostentatiously morally obtuse. The author seems unaware of the fact that Israel completely left Gaza in 2005, and that Gaza still depends on Israel for water and electricity because Gaza’s rulers diverted the vast oceans of foreign aid, which was meant for civilian infrastructure, to building a highly fortified underground city. Does it allow civilians to shelter in its tunnel complex? Of course not. It purposely threads the tunnels through schools and hospitals because dead Palestinian children are an essential part of its PR campaign.
A pointed question, perhaps, but would that PR campaign work without an army of useful idiots to propel it along?
“Indeed, in just one month, Israel’s air strikes against Gaza, the heaviest bombing campaign since the Second World War”
Can that really be true ? Biggger than the USA in Vietnam ?
Perhaps it is – but it seems unlikely.
A single rocket fired by Islamic Jihad killed 500 people in a hospital, so who knows how many people have been killed by the heaviest bombing campaign since WW2.
At least you got correct that the rocket was fired by Islamic Jihand, but the number of people killed was not 500 as reported by Hamas but 50, and the rocket didn’t hit the hospital but the hospital’s parking lot. It helps to get the facts straight.
SO we shouldn’t take Palestinian claims of number of dead or what was hit at face value?
Not if they came from Hamas controlled organizations, no.
There almost undoubtably will be high casualties in Gaza given the densely populated area, but more so due to Hamas placing the weapons stashes in civilian buildings, refusing to let civilians leave, filtering off resources sent to Gaza for war use, and, er, starting the bl**dy thing in the first place.
Nowhere in Gaza would be being bombed right now if October 7th hadn’t happened.
Gaza could be a thriving economic hub, under the protection of Israel if their leaders had not been such ……. what are the words?
Don’t make me laugh Dom, Israel wants their land, every action the Israeli government takes is proof of the fact
If that were true they could have taken it anytime in the last 50 years or so. On the other hand Palestinian leaders have launched pro-active agressive attacks over and over, with no chance of real success, and the continued suffering of their people as the surefire cost; and they have clearly and consistently called for the destruction of Israel. The greatest, really only problem in the conflict is the paucity of Palestine’s leadership – all other evils flow from that.
PS: The Israeli govt has offered the Palestinians their own state on about six occasions. The Arabs/Palestinians always said no, and
1: NO PEACE with Israel,
2: NO NEGOTIATIONS with Israel,
3: NO RECOGNITION of Israel
If that still isn’t enough, just think about it – what chance does Israel have if it wipes out Palestine, given who it’s neighbours are? On the other hand, if Palestine could wipe out Israel….
Having forceably removed all Jews from Gaza. Dont make me laugh, Walsh.
I guess that’s why they evacuated it a decade and a half ago.
Do you seriously think you should take anything coming out of Hamas at face value when they just perpetrated perhaps the most barbaric attack since the Vikings raided the Eastern coastline of England in the 7th century!!!!!!!
On top of that what Hamas stated about the hospital was rapidly shown to be a complete falsehood. i.e. pure propaganda as they want to have useful idiots believe that the IDF is responsible for huge numbers of deaths when in fact all the blame lies squarely on Hamas’ shoulders. Not only do they locate their tunnels, command centers, rocket launching sites under hospitals, schools, apartment buildings, etc…. but they prevent their own people from leaving and going to South Gaza under threat of death. Hamas wants as many Gazans to be killed as possible.
I guess Islamic Jihad didn’t phone before hand and tell the civilians to get out of the way.
So given hundreds of Hamas/IJ rockets have fallen short onto Gaza, with 500 dead a time, Israel may not have killed any?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67327079
later shown to be 15.
The heaviest bombing campaign since WW2 was in Vietnam. This does not come close.
Indeed, I would like to see that figure substantiated. The highest figure I can see currently quoted for the Gaza campaign is 20,000 tons of explosives dropped.
Immediately Operation Rolling Thunder in Vietnam comes to mind which exploded 864,000 tons of high explosives on 153,784 attack sorties over North Vietnam. Or operation Barrell Roll where the USAF dropped 2,500,000 tons of ordnance on Laos during 580,000 bombing sorties.
As a whole, between 1965 and 1975, the United States and its allies dropped more than 7,500,000 tons of bombs on Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia.
The Christmas bombings alone included over 25,000 tons of bombs dropped on North Vietnam over a period of 12 days.
Estimates for the number of North Vietnamese civilian deaths resulting from US bombing during that war range from 30,000–65,000.
If we are confining ourselves to individual cities or city regions then you would have to consider the Russian bombing of Grozny or the destruction of Mosul.
Aside from the massive numbers alone, it should be remarked that by the end in Vietnam the entire strategy was to inflict pain on the North from the air by bombing their cities and civilian infrastructure in order to force them to accept terms. And, along with meeting Mao at the same time, it worked.
“We bombed the North Vietnamese into accepting our concessions” as Dr K put it.
A better strategist will not be found in US government today, unfortunately.
I’d be very interested to learn what concessions the US got from China and Vietnam. In what way was the deal Kissinger got superior to just leaving and letting the North overrun the South. And how would the outome have been any different ?
I don’t think it needs bombing to persuade an opponent to accept your concessions !
Given the photo included here
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67327079
Then there must be a hell of a lot of tunnels, because this strike is clearly VERY surgical. Pity the BBC couldn’t ‘expand’ the right hand side of the photo where the peculiar shaped black holes appear. They don’t look like ‘bomb craters’ – more like rectangular black holes in the ground. Collapsed tunnels maybe?
The destroyed towers have also collapsed as though demolition charges were involved. Though a collapse of tunnels under their foundations would no doubt produce the same effect.
Israel is on the cusp of suffering a second Holocaust. If I were Israeli I would do everything within my power to prevent that from happening. I am absolutely dismayed by the amount of people attacking Israel for defending itself from the horrors inflicted on it on October 7th. However, while Hamas’ actions are utterly abhorrent they are not wholly unexpected. What really shocks me is the sheer number of Western apologists who would rather see Israelis marching quietly to their graves than take up a gun and defend themselves.
A depressing but persuasive analysis, in my opinion. I take issue with the rather lazy generalisation that it is hard to distinguish the moral basis of Israel’s bombing of Gaza from the bombing campaigns of the Syrian War – that is quite silly and untenable, there is an obvious difference of principle here.
On this, though, I agree:
“For all its faults, the world that follows American hegemony will hardly be more peaceful or humane than that we have come to know: if anything, the withering of America’s reach is already shaping up to be bloodier than the fall of the Soviet Union.”
While I’m not convinced that the Pax Americana is dead yet, I have for years been convinced that when it does fall, the world will develop a shocking and painful nostalgia for it almost immediately. Whether one is pro-American or not, the fact is that a broadly peaceful planet supplied by ocean trade routes patrolled by the American Navy and a financial system run by an economically westernised global elite, has produced mass prosperity and a state of existence never before seen by humanity – in fact barely even dreamed of by most humans.
What replaces the Pax Americana might be war, or it might be a fragile and unstable peace, but it is exceptionally unlikely to be anything as good as what most people now alive have tended to take for granted. I’m not flying the stars and stripes here: I am well aware that the USA has gamed the global system to it’s own advantage and has been guilty of serious mistakes and abuses of its power. But only fools compare what is with what ought to be: to live in the real world we compare what is with what the other available options are. Those options don’t look good as far as I’m concerned.
The author asks ” Is Israel’s war a result of America’s weakness? “
No, not the whole of America. The war was specifically enabled with the helping hands of America’s far left leaning mainstream media, and the second coming of the anti-Israel Obama White House, wherein Joe Biden is a convenient, if inarticulate, puppet.
The American left, better known as the Democrat party, wins elections by pandering to and manipulating the minority vote…using disenfranchisement and victimhood as their battlecry. Biden even said during his campaign that “You ain’t Black” if you’re considering voting for Trump …meaning that it’s morally repugnant for an African-American to vote for a conservative candidate, even though is was the Republican, Abraham Lincoln, who penned the Emancipation Proclamation, and ultimately freed America’s black slaves. It’s the leftwing’s forever fear mongering of the “white privileged” majority which has kept minorities voting as blocks for Democrats in local, state and federal elections.
Now we come to the Jews, a group that has always block voted for Democrat candidates, especially during times when antisemitism seemed to be home-based with the Red State Republican Party. Obama changed all that. He overtly tried to undermine the Israeli political system through open criticism of its democratically elected leadership, while concomitantly offering olive branches (and billions of dollars) to Iran. This alienated the American-Zionist vote, and sent up a red flag to the American Jewish community. In short, Obama (and now Biden) was, and is, willing to give up the Jewish vote for the rapidly expanding immigrant Muslim vote.
With an Obama/Biden White House, the Middle East at large (e.g. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran) have become emboldened, and the terrorist organizations of Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad have become unleashed. Overlay this with anarchistic Muslim-American immigrants, who on the whole embrace antisemitism, and a university structure that preaches one-sided Palestinian victimhood…then an unthinkable 10/7/2023 genocide becomes an inevitability.
Then every greatest power in the history of the world suffered from the same defect. There’s a difference between not being able to control anything and being able to influence most things. The latter is what the greatest powers in the history in the world have been able to do. The former is a straw man.
Also, you can’t become the champ without beating the champ.
It would be nice, but unprecedented, if a war could be fought without civilian casualties. Or maybe not: they would too much fun to resist otherwise. It is the instigator of the war that is responsible for the casualties that inevitably follow, not the nation that was attacked.
“A more astute American president — indeed, a truer friend of Israel — would have constrained Netanyahu’s response from the start, pushing the Jewish state to accept higher military casualties as the price of assuaging world opinion.”
Any Israeli Pm, not just Netanyahu, would have said two words in reply. One beginning with F and the other ‘off’. As it is Israel endangers her troops to try to reduce civilian casualties.
The author also misreads Israeli public opinion. True the country was split over Netanyahu’s performance prior to October 7th but they are united as never before over this war. Netanyahu is more unpopular now and his tenure is surely finished. This is not some desperate political ploy to get public support
Sadly in a war there are no innocents, ask the millions of civilians killed in WW2. There are those who are our enemies and those who aren’t. Even then it’s not cut and dried, witness the many French civilians killed during allied bombings in the run up to D-day. After the utterly horrendous acts committed by Hamas on innocents on Oct 7th Israel was always going to react. There’s a big difference between deaths in a bombing raid targeting an evil murderer and an individual taking time to torture someone to death with the utmost savagery. Had it been a grandchild of mine butchered I’d be advocating doing to Gaza what the Romans did to Carthage. I am a vengeful type though.
The sad fact is that Putin out-manoeuvres US leadership every time, but he would not be doing so if the neocons hadn’t projected their New American Century via the endless expansion of NATO after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
I stand with Israel. They need to keep going to the last terrorist.
As for Ukraine, they and the Americans have no interest in peace. If they did, the war could be ended in a day as president Trump has said.
I agree with every word in this article. Other commenters have called this article fatalistic, but, sadly, I think it’s all too realistic. I’m an American and our institutions are now so corrupted by progressivism, and our country so divided, we are in no position to provide leadership to the rest of the world.
I would certainly agree that the US is seeing a “Fall of the Roman Empire” moment, at least if it continues down its current path of virtue signaling, safe spaces, etc…
I’ve heard that America was divided at other times in the past – but maybe you say that the Civil War, and the strife of the Civil Rights, and Vietnam eras were nothing compared with wokery and culture wars…..
“A more astute American president — indeed, a truer friend of Israel — would have constrained Netanyahu’s response from the start, pushing the Jewish state to accept higher military casualties as the price of assuaging world opinion.” Another Bibi hater. Why don’t you put the balme where it lies ? Islam and the Arabs.
Marvelous essay.
The danger today exists almost entirely because of the rot at the top of US command, Bibi aside. All of our enemies are aware and taking advantage on all fronts. The time between now and January ‘24, when Trump will be re-inaugurated, will be one of the most dangerous in our history. To think, the dithering fool campaigned on Iran rapprochement. Makes me sick.
Ultimately, the end of the “American order” will be Ok for us. We have everything we need in North America. Those commitments in Korea and Taiwan and the Persian Gulf and Poland or wherever, and just generally ensuring all small nations get to trade on the open seas…well, good luck!
Edit Oh, and yes. The victory of Assad and defeat of the USA in Iraq and Afghanistan (“huh, even after 20 years they’re not western liberals…”) should have signified the end of that old era of believing in the universal liberal vision.
Burke, its not just the rot at the top of the US
Its the same all across the West
No other leader in the West really matters, though.
It’s not like anyone is waiting for a change in UK leadership to launch an offensive.
Wow. There’s a lot to say regarding Aris’s analysis of America, the West, Israel, Ukraine, etc. But, I’ll just focus on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
(Aside – Aris says, “…it’s America’s allies whose actions disgust the world…” Really, Aris? Disgust? The world? I suspect your statement speaks more about you than the world.)
I recently watched the excellent series The World At War, from Thames TV, in its entirety. I had seen individual episodes in the past but watching it all the way through was revealing. What jumped out at me was just how many failures Britain and the Allies endured throughout 1939, 1940 and even into 1941 and 1942. Then, add in America’s disasters in 1941 and 1942. Everywhere – Europe, the pacific region, Singapore, the Philippines, North Africa – the Allies attempts to fight back were mostly disastrous! Of course, we know how things turned out a few years later.
Aris is a smart man, no doubt. But, I’m surprised he’s so willing to predict utter disaster in Ukraine and Israel/Gaza after such short periods of time. It doesn’t matter what I or anyone else believes is the ‘right’ thing or the ‘just cause’. No matter whose side you may be on, history clearly demonstrates that predicting utter doom after less than two years of war in Ukraine or a few weeks of war in Gaza is nonsense. He should know better. There is ample recent history to at least give a person pause regarding sweeping predictions early on in conflicts.
None of these smug Journalists, criticising Israel for going after the murderous barbaric Hamas, say how Israel should have reacted after their civilians were butchered and taken hostages. Do they mean Israel should just have handed in a petition to the UN and complained to its Human Rights Organisation (lol) , asking politely to sort out these horrible crimes.
No nation on Earth would roll over and leave their fate to the “World Community”.
The scenes we are now witnessing in Gaza are horrible, but they also show, that Hamas doesn’t give a damn about its own civilian population, putting their head quarters and rocket launchers in hospital and schools and digging tunnels under the most vulnerable infrastructures. I recently saw a young Palestinian woman cuddling her dead husband’s body, shouting: “you dogs” at some grinning young Hamas fighters. She was consequently chocked and dragged away from the cameras.
In the end the consequences of the many failed policies by Netanyahu and his mostly religious orthodox Government will be coming soon at the ballot box. Sadly this Democratic “luxury” is not available for other inhabitants of Middle Eastern States.
Fatalistic drivel is spot on. Aris would have been the guy touting American “losses and failures” in fire-bombing Dresden or dropping nukes on Nagasaki and Hiroshima. As ugly and inhumane as that was, it was a logical conclusion to the atrocities that Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan inflicted on their neighbors. Israel didn’t start this war on humanity, but they will de-Hamasfy Gaza the same way the Allies had to de-Nazify Europe. People will look back on Israel and its supporters the same way we view the Allies after WWII — unclean and sinful, but victorious in wiping Hamas off the face of the earth. Biden will be remembered as another Chamberlain, followed by a new Churchill, and history will be written (again) by the victors.
Antisemitism has a moment of space to openly declare itself, and we can see what rests just beneath the surface. And has for eons. Not pretty.
Jews are a closed blood line club of determined, brilliant, confident, mostly white and successful people. In today’s world of petty envy, hatred is a powerful tool easily sharpened by blood lust.
Why a tiny group of people, living in a tiny, grudgingly granted enclave, should engender such perpetual hatred is a mark of human evil incapable of being explained or expunged. Israel is the canary in the coal mine of human decency.
Arab land could swallow that little lump of indigenous, Semitic territory of Judaism and scarcely notice, but would rather spend millenia choking on it. They have a choice, 9 million Jews on a spit of land do not.
If push comes to shove, Israel can survive without the support of liberals in the West, they have nukes that will work, they have the means to deliver them.
They also have a large medical research program, and unlike the Chinese, if they create a biological weapon, it will work.
It is indeed tragic – in the 90s, the US would have had the opportunity to shape an international order in which the rising powers – China, India, Indonesia, Brazil – would have been bound into world order based on international law. At the time, China’s rise was still speculative, but the heavyweights among the neutral and non-aligned who now form the core of BRICS were very much on the international law track.
Instead, the US squandered both its soft power and its hard power on projects the Soviets would have called “adventurism” and installed an order where might makes right.
Recent events have shown, if indeed there was any doubt, that Israel has no chance of avoiding brutal elimination unless it can wage successful war. Maybe once upon a time there was a peaceful solution possible, maybe Israel blew that opportunity as much as the Palestian Authority… or maybe even more so. None of that matters now: Israel faces war or brutal extinction, maybe both. All this clever geopolitical chitter chatter of which there are screeds upon screeds and podcast upon podcast matter not one jot.
“…both Gaza and Ukraine reveal, in their own unique ways, the limitations of American imperial power…”
Every nation has limits, but if you look past the layers of noisy cultural and political conflict, and at the cold, hard, assets at it’s disposal off of it’s own landmass, lots of cheap energy, all commodities, the best younger people (nicked from around the world), very favourable geographic dispositions across the nation, etc, it is pretty obvious the US is and remains the only global hegemon, and is *not* declining relative to all it’s wanna-be rivals like China, the EU, Russia etc. These are all pretty much screwed because of disastrous demographics, the effects of which are already being felt and set only to accelerate over the years. Like it or not, the US ain’t going anywhere for the foreseeable.
Terrible article. Israel does not want or need our sympathy. They have to wipe out Hamas to survive. End of.
I just wonder what it would be like to live in a country surround completely by countries with a combined population of 600% greater than yours that just want to annihilate everybody from ‘river to the sea’
I think its important to separate political power, soft power, and influence from actual military capability. Anyone who understands the scale of the US military knows that the US’s military power may not be what it was in 1991, but it’s still more than sufficient to utterly destroy most possible adversaries. Everyone knows the US spends more on its military than its next several closest rivals combined, but few truly appreciate what that means. The US has sent about 47 billion dollars of weapons to Ukraine. Sounds like a lot, but it’s less than half of what the US spends on weapons procurement in a single year. In Afghanistan, several billion dollars of weapons and equipment, more than some countries spend on their entire military in a year or many years, was simply disabled and abandoned out of strategic need, deemed insignificant enough to take the time and resources to retrieve. The Pentagon was probably thrilled to use the Ukrainian conflict to test the weapons systems America sent there. The information obtained will help strategists optimize these weapons systems and determine their best uses. The generals probably consider it money well spent.
The US’s problem is not a small decline in its relative military power. The US’s problems are political and economic. Globalism has failed and everyone knows it. It produced winners and losers. It generally favored the global north over the global south. It concentrated too much power in the hands of corporations and international finance. Still, all that could have been sustained but for America’s shortsighted failure to preserve its edge in manufacturing. In its zeal for increased profits and its misguided devotion to globalism, the US surrendered its manufacturing advantage to China, which destabilized its economy and created domestic political turmoil. At the same time they were outsourcing jobs to China, they also allowed too much immigration, which held down inflation, but also held down wages, drastically increasing income inequality. Now, the international elites and davos men who built the neoliberal consensus are facing threats from without; wars in Israel and Ukraine that force countries to choose sides and throw up trade barriers to military rivals, resentment of the wealth and power from global south nations, outright aggression and economic warfare from China, dedollarization, BRICS. At the same time, the domestic consequences of those same policies are restricting their ability to answer the external threats and maintain the system. They have lost, but have yet to realize it. Their ultimate defeat is all but assured at this point.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that US hegemony will entirely end. It may be lessened, or it may simply take a different, less benevolent form. Take note that America has not surrendered its technological edge, and is currently defending that quite rigorously. The US has quietly moved decisively in the direction of economic nationalism under Biden. Much of the US business and political elites may still be in denial about the end of globalization, but the military industrial complex is not. Further, the US remains a leading energy producer. Amidst all the climate change propaganda, the US remains the world’s largest producer of LNG. Contrast with China who is almost entirely dependent on oil from the Middle East. In a great enough crisis, America could decimate China simply through an oil embargo, and there’s not much they or anyone else could do about it in the short term besides blow everyone up in a suicidal nuclear exchange.
The author finally gets around to a bit of realism in his last two paragraphs. Most of the world should not be celebrating the end of the unipolar era or the end of American hegemony. Instead of having to obey the rules set by America and rigged in America’s favor, we’ll all be facing a harsher, more violent world of allies, enemies, trading blocs, etc. where every international action, from migration to trade to telecommunications will be weighed in terms of national security and political implications, not just economic need. It’s a return to historical normal. In a few decades, I predict a great many people will wish for a return to the days of American hegemony, and I contend that most of them won’t be Americans.
Only if Americans don’t force the rest to go Rainbow and Woke. And that too on equal terms. As someone who is from the South of the globe, prefer it to be a world of alliance and not majoritarian unilateral imposition.
Excellent analysis, thank you. Also see that you’re using paragraph breaks now, thanks for that.
What good are so-called “ friends” if they disert at the first hint of cordite?
When an author begins with the Clintonian assumption and premise that they have a corner on morality, there’s little point in an attempt at refutation. Summary dismissal is the only defense!
“the heaviest bombing campaign since the Second World War”
Where does this come from? These sorts of fake facts are a big issue.
The rest just sounds like wishful thinking.
As to Israel looking bad, I had though that Hamas plan might be to ambush Israeli forces in Gaza. But now I see all their traps are baited with Gazan lives.
It appears that Hamas plan is to sacrifice as many as they have to. They could easily stop it right now. they just have to give up the hostages.
Here’s another whopper:
“allies whose defence relies on American support should observe this worsening trend with alarm”
How about, maybe depend on yourself. That’s why you are a country rather then a state.
America’s enemies and the third world kleptocracies like Iran, North Korea and Russia were kept in line by one thing during the Trump years: the thought that “that white guy in the Oval Office is nuts. Unpredictable and erratic. Doesn’t listen to Wall Street, doesn’t pay attention to the billionaire money worshippers who own the Democrat party and who control most of the country’s information and entertainment flow. Does whatever pops into his head at the moment. Better not yank that dude’s chain too hard.”
That’s what I believe as well. Nobody messes with the crazy kid talking to himself on the playground. I have to think neither Ukraine nor the Hamas attacks happen while Trump is in office. I doubt it would stop them entirely, just kick the can farther down the road. I certainly don’t give him any personal credit for it. Any unstable personality with a penchant for holding grudges would accomplish the same.
This reads like the work of someone who knows violence exists only in the abstract. Let’s call it Ryan Carson syndrome. He hopelessly fails to grasp that there are large segments of the world that still live in the middle ages and would gladly perpetrate horrific violence for reasons incomprehensible to the western mind.
Even though I don’t agree with most of what you wrote here, you totally lost me when you wrote “Netanyahu seemingly has no strategy other than remaining in power and out of jail for as long as possible, whatever the consequences for his country or the wider region”. Looks like you have been reading too many op-eds in Haaretz. You should learn Hebrew and read a wider selection of Israeli opinions and political comment.
Anti – Israel tosh. When terrorists bake your babies in ovens in London, and gang- rape your daughters before murdering them, get back to me .
Second part of that has been happening for three decades.
A pretty solid article, despite what some other commenters think.
American was a flawed hegemon, and Pax Americana came with problems and injustices. Unfortunately, we might realize soon that the alternatives are even worse.
Of all of the shallow and stupid arguments that swirl around this conflict, surely the shallowest is the body count. Mr. Roussinos may have forgotten that over 4 million Germans died in WWII, compared with 300,000 Americans and 360,000 Brits. Is the conclusion therefore, that the Allies were the villains and the Germans were the victims?
So israel should well sit back and let Hamas, Iran and the Muslims supporters go on their genocidal ways? What action might i ask does Roussinos suggest Israel take? Suck it up? Well Mr Roussinos I suggest Israel will destroy its murderous enemy in a short time in order to survive and to protect its nation. I am at the stage of ending my support of Unherd, like Thor Albro.
There have been no elections in Gaza for 15 years.
The people in Gaza do not want to live in a Hamas dictatorship.
Who will free them from control by Hamas if not Israel?
It is not evident that the Palestinians in Gaza do not want to live under Hamas. After all, Hamas won the election against the PLA handily as they were seen to provide services and be less corrupt.
You can’t judge by a single election 15 years ago, following which Hamas refused to hold further elections, used international aid money to build military capacity and attack Israel, then used the very people who voted for Hamas as human shields.
Under normal circumstances you would be correct, but not in the context of Gaza and Hamas. Hamas controls the schools and controls what the children are taught, and have done so with an iron fist since they were “elected” 15 years ago. And they are taught to hate the Jews and to kill every single one. With that level of hate, I’m afraid that the majority of Gazans are just as culpable as the Hamas monsters that perpetrated Oct 7. Just look at how so-called regular Gazans treated the naked body of a young German jewish female who had been rapid and killed. Then ask yourself what type of normal person in the UK would do such a thing. Once you’ve done that perhaps you will have your answer.
Today, Moody’s just down-rated the US’s credit rating – ‘nuf said.
Wow
In February of 2022, the US trapped Russian into the invasion of Ukraine by presenting Russia with two distasteful alternatives: (1) Allow Ukraine to join NATO and allow Ukraine to destroy the secessionist oblasts of the Donbas, or (2) Invade Ukraine and become tied into a war with the US/NATO through its proxy Ukraine.
Russia chose the only sustainable but more immediately costly option of invading Ukraine to protect the Donbas citizens and keep Ukraine out of NATO. (The US hoped to create an entangling morass like what the US experienced in Afghanistan, but Russia has avoided that.)
Now, near the end of 2023, Hamas has trapped Israel in a similar dilemma: (1) Accept the incursion by Hamas and lick its own wounds, or (2) Invade Gaza and become tied into an unwinnable asymmetrical war against Hamas and its allies. Israel has chosen the easier but less-sustainable option of invading Gaza. In the process, Israel has destroyed its own credibility as being a moral state, instead seeking vengeance and retribution against the Palestinian people as a substitute for damaging Hamas, which is largely underground (literally and figuratively).
This is a masterstroke of strategic judo by Hamas and Israel has only begun to feel the adverse consequences. One after another, nations are peeling themselves away from affiliating with Israel. Enormous public protests are forming against Israel’s actions. Israel is becoming more isolated than ever before, and that is entirely due to Israel’s own actions.
Israel is behaving less like wise, clear-eyed Solomon and more like angry, blind Sampson.
Another vote for Team Jihad.
So many salient points. Like Netanyahu — though not to the same extent — Biden faces domestic discord, on this issue and others. Making open-ended promises to support two foreign wars is unlikely to increase national unity or American credibility, as such pledges are simply not sustainable.
Given that we can’t rule ourselves effectively — our perpetually dysfunctional government is facing yet another shutdown, amidst astronomical national debt — I question whether we have any business inserting ourselves into the difficulties of other nations.
Euroland should carefully consider what might have happened when Yugoslavia exploded into genocidal violence in 1994 right in their own backyard. They immediately dialed Washington DC on the NATO hotline because they could not mount a military response in a neighboring country!. Their military capabilities are arguably much eroded from that time. A preview has already happened in Syria 500k dead, massive refugee issues, Russian/Iranian interventions but no U.S. response beyond occasional terrorist takedowns.Nobody cared much about it and it far outstrips any Israeli induced casualties. The often conjured up delusion is Europe would be better off without a feckless US ally. The painful reality is they cannot protect their own borders absent a U.S. led NATO and it must be difficult to accept it.
I think that some of the spurious ‘facts’ in this article could easily be disputed. There is a wealth of Palestinian propaganda presented online that is so blatantly staged it’s risible, and has already been discredited.
“the heaviest bombing campaign since the Second World War” ?
Utter nonsense. Operation Linebacker II saw more than 200 American B-52 bombers fly 730 sorties and drop over 20,000 tons of bombs on North Vietnam over a period of 12 days in December 1972.
knew immediately this was written by an anti westerner
“we should either increase our ability to defend ourselves alone, or limit our self-insertion into the affairs of stronger rival states”
We should do both!
I have read this twice now and I think it defines the problem really quite well. It may be a little biased for some. Defining problems has it’s limitations and I would ask the question, given without America Ukraine would be part of Russia now and Israel part of the Arab world, “What would you like to have happen?”.
Let’s not look forward (with some inner glee it would seem from reading between the lines) to a self-fulfilling prophecy that America is dead.
Much more likely that without America, Ukraine would be militarily neutral, with greater autonomy given to it’s Eastern Oblasts enjoying the possibility of EU membership. That was on the table as on offer for a European security framework from Putin prior to the invasion. Now parts of it are likely to be parts of Russia because America isn’t able to fight a modern war even with proxies.
Don’t you mean “Russia isn’t able to fight a modern war” there ?
America is somewhat limited by only being able to fight a modern war – by an over-reliance on technology and a seeming inability to take significant casualities.
Russian support for a neutral Ukraine within the EU was never on the table.
Maybe, but the US, Nato and the EU hubris guaranteed this war.
No one forced Russia to invade Ukraine. No more than Hamas was forced to invade Israel. They both had choices. Both seem to have made poor decisions.
And countries should have choices about their own future. Including Ukraine.
Aris is back. A mostly right truth teller with moral, historical, and logical clarity.
If the U.S. and the EU put boots on the ground to drive Russia out of Ukraine I believe Russia would have honorably backed down. Or maybe it was Obama’s “red line” that should have been defended? Who knows when the U.S. became a paper tiger. I agree with the author, Israel’s ignoring the U.S. is a turning point. Let the West vs East main event begin.