The start of a new World War? (Wathiq Khuzaie/Getty Images)

Less than a month ago, President Biden was asked on camera if the United States could simultaneously bring conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to a palatable conclusion. “We’re the United States of America, for God’s sake,” he responded, “the most powerful nation in the history of the world.” A few weeks later, facing domestic pressure to order Israel to cease its bloody bombing campaign against Gaza, Biden administration officials instead proclaimed their total powerlessness to influence its ally. Similarly, Biden’s early proclamations that America would support Ukraine “for as long as it takes” have run into the brick wall of American political dysfunction: as long as it takes, it transpires, in practice means just under two years.
Different wars with different causes, both Gaza and Ukraine reveal, in their own unique ways, the limitations of American imperial power. Neither would have been launched by either Russia or by Hamas — perhaps with Iran behind it — without the confidence that America’s ability to defend the world it created in its own image was radically weakened. The Pax Americana is already dead: the world is now suffering more wars than at any time since 1945. Worse, a vast gap has opened up between America’s stated commitments to its allies, and its ability to enforce its will: entire nations could be swallowed in the gulf between rhetoric and reality.
To remedy this, we must first cast off the illusions that led us here. In all this recent horror, it has been a salutary experience observing the contrast in reactions summoned up by the punitive air campaigns carried out by America’s geopolitical foes, such as Syria and Russia, and those carried out with America’s military and diplomatic support by its ally Israel. Pundits who rightly condemned Assad’s reckless bombing of hospitals, schools, bakeries and civilian homes now urge us to consider the painful necessity for Israel to bomb the same civilian targets in Gaza. Equally, many of those now loudly outraged by Israel’s air campaign previously welcomed Assad and Russia’s indiscriminate bombing of what they called terrorists in Syria. Objectively, it is difficult to see any significant moral difference between the two campaigns, between their rival sets of supporters, or between the rival great powers enabling them.
Indeed, in just one month, Israel’s air strikes against Gaza, the heaviest bombing campaign since the Second World War, have caused between a quarter and half the deaths of the entire four-year long bloody siege of the similarly-sized city of Aleppo. But it is misguided to view any of this as a failing of the American-led liberal order: it is the American-led liberal order, working as it was always intended to work. Morality is only cited to punish America’s enemies: when it’s America’s allies whose actions disgust the world, nuances and diplomatic cover can always be found.
Yet for all the political damage it has caused the US, it is doubtful whether Biden’s delicate dance — shielding Israel from international condemnation while washing his hands of the bloody results — is even in Israel’s best interests. A month ago, the sheer unbridled bloodlust displayed in the atrocities carried out by Hamas won Israel a degree of international sympathy unseen in decades. It would have taken political dysfunction of the gravest and most reckless kind to have squandered this sympathy, and incredibly, Israel’s government has managed to do so in just a few weeks. Every day, every smartphone in the world brings forth new horrors from Gaza: whole families extinguished, dead children pulled from the ruins of their homes, entire districts reduced to rubble in an instant. Even those supportive of Israel’s campaign to root out Hamas have been horrified by the methods chosen to do so. By inviting such carnage against the Palestinian people, eroding Israel’s legitimacy, Hamas have already won a dark and twisted victory.
Just last week, following the mass killing of civilians in Jabalia refugee camp in an Israeli attempt to strike one Hamas commander, Biden sent his Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Jerusalem to warn the Israeli government that it must take far greater care to avoid civilian harm, telling the cameras in anguished tones: “I’ve seen images of Palestinian children pulled from wreckage of buildings. When I look into their eyes through the TV screen, I see my own children. How can we not?” But on the same day, just as Blinken girded himself to shore up Arab support for America’s position, Israel bombed ambulances at Gaza’s al-Shifa hospital, killing even more civilians and stoking even more outrage. America can neither deter direct attacks on its closest ally, nor rein in Israel’s excessive response: the greatest power on Earth is a helpless spectator to events directly impacting its own standing.
Before Gaza City has even fallen, then, the war against Hamas has become a diplomatic disaster of the greatest magnitude for both Israel and the United States. Biden has hitched his political survival and America’s global reputation to an Israeli government wildly unpopular in Israel itself, whose leader Netanyahu is blamed for redistributing military resources towards the illegal settlements of the West Bank, enabling the Hamas incursion. Netanyahu seemingly has no strategy other than remaining in power and out of jail for as long as possible, whatever the consequences for his country or the wider region. There is no plan for what to do with Gaza or its people once Hamas is defeated, and no belief that the US can use the tragedy to finally resolve the conflict. America’s aim of reordering the Middle East into a peaceful equilibrium favourable for Israel and united against Iran is now in tatters. Arab states, long subjected to moral pressure to take the West’s side on Ukraine, can rightfully point to America’s hypocrisy when lecturing on human rights and the need to protect civilians. In Gaza, America’s dwindling moral case for imperial hegemony was finally buried beneath the rubble.
At home, Biden’s voter base is bitterly divided: the dramatic scenes of the new pro-Palestinian activist base obscure the broader new consensus among a majority of younger voters — the future Democratic base — against continued American support for Israel. This is itself now the greatest single strategic threat to the Jewish state, creating a far more perilous dynamic than Hamas’s brutalities or Hezbollah’s missile armoury. The root cause of this situation is the Israeli hubris caused by decades of seemingly limitless American support, which allowed the Palestine conflict to smoulder unresolved. With Israel confident that America’s backing was eternal, and America confident that its power could always shield Israel from external threats, the two countries found themselves locked in a dysfunctional embrace. Israel is now dependent on American support as never before, while American support for Israel has never been so domestically contested. Instead of ensuring Israel’s security, decades of American indulgence permitted Netanyahu to lead the country towards disaster.
Soon, according to US officials, international and domestic pressure will force Biden to insist upon a ceasefire. Yet any Israeli halting of hostilities before the total destruction of Hamas will be perceived worldwide as a Hamas victory, and a defeat for both Israel and the United States. A more astute American president — indeed, a truer friend of Israel — would have constrained Netanyahu’s response from the start, pushing the Jewish state to accept higher military casualties as the price of assuaging world opinion. But the current situation, in which America assumes the blame for the civilian casualties of Netanyahu’s punitive campaign while unconvincingly wringing its hands over the bloodshed, was the worst of all responses.
As Gaza holds the world’s attention, Ukraine’s leadership is struggling to maintain focus on its own existential conflict. But in its own distinct way, the Ukraine war is another tragic example of the widening gulf between America’s imperial commitments and its dwindling capabilities. On the very first day of the invasion, Russia began the war as a far richer, stronger and more powerful country than Ukraine, and nearly two years later, for all its battlefield reversals since then, that basic equation has not changed. Again, the gap between what Biden promised and what he could deliver has proved fatal. By promising US support of a duration and extent greater than he could deliver, Biden encouraged the Zelenskyy administration to pursue war aims that have now proved beyond Ukraine’s abilities. By allowing Zelenskyy to determine the endpoint of victory, and publicly abstaining from outlining what an acceptable outcome would look like, Biden encouraged Ukrainian planners to broaden their goals from a return to the country’s de facto 2022 borders to a return to its de jure 1991 borders and then improbably onwards to the total defeat and disintegration of the Russian state.
To this end, the combined effort of the United States and Europe turned to arming and training the Ukrainian army for its much-vaunted summer offensive, in the hope of forcing a humbled Putin into peace negotiations. Instead, after months of bloodshed and sacrifice, the Ukrainian army has achieved a tenuous hold on two depopulated hamlets a few kilometres from their starting point. With the Ukrainian offensive stalled, the momentum has now swung back to Russia, incrementally biting into the Ukrainian lines, though with great losses of its own, all across the eastern front. This winter, Ukraine will find itself on the defensive once again. Much of the Ukrainian army’s superiority in morale and technical ability was wasted this summer on the misguided southern offensive and on the fruitless attempts to first hold and then recapture Bakhmut, and the country will find itself entering 2024 in a far worse position than it began 2023.
Within the Ukrainian leadership, the recriminations have already begun. Ukraine’s top general, Zaluzhny, has described the war as a stalemate, and been condemned for his frankness by Zelenskyy’s staff. Ukraine’s fairweather friends in the West, the grifter pundits who talked up every defeat as a victory, helping Western publics view the war as already practically won and Russia’s still untested industrial and military capabilities worthy only of mockery, are now rightfully the target of Ukrainian ire. Outright Ukrainian victory was not impossible, but the work of reordering Western industry necessary to achieve it simply was not done. As US officials leak that Zelenskyy will soon have to face reality and come to the negotiating table, and sources close to Zelenskyy — including his former strategic advisor, Oleksiy Arestovych, now planning a presidential run of his own — brief against him in dramatic terms, Ukrainians will have every right to believe that the initial false promises of unlimited American support given by Biden were, in the end, worse for the country than clearly defined but sustainable support would have been at the beginning of the war.
In both cases, the gap between the Biden administration’s public professions of unlimited support and its private reservations have led its allies into perilous positions. American leaders are given to claiming that their country is not just a state, but an idea: but that idea is increasingly untethered from objective reality. American political turbulence has made even medium-term strategic planning impossible to pursue: allies whose defence relies on American support should observe this worsening trend with alarm.
For countries such as Britain, helpless chicks under America’s wing, the primary lesson is that we should either increase our ability to defend ourselves alone, or limit our self-insertion into the affairs of stronger rival states. For countries such as Israel or Ukraine, fated by geography to exist at the sabre’s edge, the approach of wisdom will be more painful. Israel has no choice but to destroy Hamas, and Ukraine no option but to continue defending itself: if peace talks with Russia were ever viable, there is no reason for Moscow to pursue them now. In both cases, the likelihood is that the wars will grind on to grim and morally unsatisfactory conclusions. In each case, given the constraints on American political will and capability, perhaps a frozen conflict with the ever-present risk of escalation is the best that can now be achieved.
There is no anti-imperialist glee to be found in the situation we are in. For all its faults, the world that follows American hegemony will hardly be more peaceful or humane than that we have come to know: if anything, the withering of America’s reach is already shaping up to be bloodier than the fall of the Soviet Union. Faced with such a prospect, the task that remains is to help America manage its own decline in as painless a way possible, preventing the conflicts nibbling at the edge of its empire from coalescing into a single war that will consume us all.
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SubscribeDon’t you ever wonder what the Ukrainian civilians are thinking?
I watch all sort of News programmes on the TV and I learned yesterday that Zelensky’s government had lost five advisers in his intimate circle and a similar number in administrations throughout the country. That doesn’t sound to me as if the war has full support amongst the civilian population.
But how can we tell when we are only given one side. You have an open forum but there is no open forum in the MSM
You mean those that were sacked due to corruption?
Brave Ukrainians will fight to the last man or woman. Rather dead than red.
Well, the 10m Russians in Ukraine certainly don’t support Zelensky.
And based on the videos I’ve seen of forced conscription at gunpoint in Zakarpattia, neither do the Hungarians there.
You mean those that were sacked due to corruption?
Brave Ukrainians will fight to the last man or woman. Rather dead than red.
Well, the 10m Russians in Ukraine certainly don’t support Zelensky.
And based on the videos I’ve seen of forced conscription at gunpoint in Zakarpattia, neither do the Hungarians there.
Don’t you ever wonder what the Ukrainian civilians are thinking?
I watch all sort of News programmes on the TV and I learned yesterday that Zelensky’s government had lost five advisers in his intimate circle and a similar number in administrations throughout the country. That doesn’t sound to me as if the war has full support amongst the civilian population.
But how can we tell when we are only given one side. You have an open forum but there is no open forum in the MSM
Ukraine had more than 2,500 tanks at the beginning of the “Special military operation”. They have all been destroyed by the Russians. Why should a hundred (or even more) miscellanous NATO tanks make any difference to the outcome? The Russians will surely destroy them too. At most they can only delay Russian victory. But most likely, these tanks will not even reach the battlefront until the war is over – if then.
Ukraine had more than 2,500 tanks at the beginning of the “Special military operation”. They have all been destroyed by the Russians. Why should a hundred (or even more) miscellanous NATO tanks make any difference to the outcome? The Russians will surely destroy them too. At most they can only delay Russian victory. But most likely, these tanks will not even reach the battlefront until the war is over – if then.
I claim no expertise, but if the Russians are using human wave attacks by poorly trained and ill-equipped troops then their casualty rate is likely to be far high than that experienced by the defenders.
One question I have is “Has the casualty rate experienced by both sides changed over the course of the war?” This may seem a ghoulish question but it surely has some significance for the final outcome – Even the Russians run out of cannon fodder eventually.
Its not the numbers that matter. Its the percentage of available forces lost. The Russian can loose 3 or 4 times more than the Ukrainians and still win. There’s talk of mobilization of another 200,000 Russians. There comes a point where the Ukrainians don’t have the numbers to defend the current line and have to retreat. Similar to Grant’s campaign in the East in 1864-65. If the war continues as a battle of attrition the Russians win because they have a greater population and huge amount of equipment in storage. That’s why the supply of western tanks is so vital. It turns an attrition conflict, which favors Russia, into a manoeuvre conflict, which favors Ukraine.
Is that still the case where an offensive force is considered? I can see that from the point of view of defensive position but at some point during a war of aggression numbers will have a greater psychological impact.
Bad analogy. But going in the right direction.
Grant had an overall four-to-one superiority in manpower in 1864. And that was only possible because of three years of attrition warfare.
Remember, the South could only recruit from a free population of 4 million, while the North had 20 million.
Ukraine is a third the population of Russia, but with a million already under arms.
Even with another call-up, Russia will have only a marginal superiority–and now, a clear qualitative inferiority.
“huge amount of equipment in storage” most of which is inoperable as they are discovering. Parts sold year ago.
Cope and seethe.
The Russians are managing the manufacturing side of things far far better that the West, which relies too heavily on over-engineered pap that looks good in a brochure and gives huge profits to corporations but that when asked to scale up, takes years.
When did you last hear of the much-vaunted switchblade ? The companys website looks amazing. But operationally, in theatre, it’s total junk.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare/
Cope and seethe.
The Russians are managing the manufacturing side of things far far better that the West, which relies too heavily on over-engineered pap that looks good in a brochure and gives huge profits to corporations but that when asked to scale up, takes years.
When did you last hear of the much-vaunted switchblade ? The companys website looks amazing. But operationally, in theatre, it’s total junk.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare/
This is true, but how many men can Russia throw into the meat grinder before it starts to cause unrest? It’s one thing using prisoners and peasants from Siberia and the Caucuses as cannon fodder, it’s quite different when you start mobilising large numbers from Moscow and St Petersburg
Because this isn’t what the Russians are doing, you’ll wait forever for the unrest you seem to be expecting any minute now.
Check your assumptions and then the world starts to make more sense.
Because this isn’t what the Russians are doing, you’ll wait forever for the unrest you seem to be expecting any minute now.
Check your assumptions and then the world starts to make more sense.
The Ukrainians do not have a manpower issue. They’ve up to a 1million mobilised or trained/training. The Russians can deploy more of course if they further enforce conscription, but they haven’t got the Ukrainian’s anywhere near a reinforcements problem. Nor is this likely. Russia may have the theoretical manpower but can’t sustain heavy losses without victories without morale collapsing and risk of social unrest. They already have a ‘go-forward’ problem.
Of course that doesn’t mean losses aren’t tragic and desperate, but one Ukrainian soldier is proving worth a good number of Russians . Fighting on your home soil against a known barbarous invader a force multiplier.
Why have the lessons of Vietnam, Afghanistan etc still not been learned – even of Russia (invaded by the Germans). Cause a country enough grief and they will NEVER back down – the Kurds -still fighting and will forever etc etc. Learning history, repeating blah blah – the imbecility of psychopathic tyrants and the gormless commoners who let them have their way , blah blah – and round and round we go. I guess this is why the Yanks hang onto their guns – it is kinda making more sense these days…………….thought i would never say that !!!!
Difficult to work out what you trying to convey there CS, apols.
But as regards ‘lessons’ I think the v evident lesson demonstrated is NATO/US doesn’t have ‘boots on the ground’. It’s responded to a unified well led population that wants to fight, and fight hard against an invader by arming them and probiding intelligence. That’s quite a different approach. That was much less the case in Vietnam and Afghan. The Tet offensive in 68 showed how riddled S Vietnam was with Vietgong infiltration and supporters of the North. That’s v clearly not the case in Ukraine.
We have been much smarter this time.
Difficult to work out what you trying to convey there CS, apols.
But as regards ‘lessons’ I think the v evident lesson demonstrated is NATO/US doesn’t have ‘boots on the ground’. It’s responded to a unified well led population that wants to fight, and fight hard against an invader by arming them and probiding intelligence. That’s quite a different approach. That was much less the case in Vietnam and Afghan. The Tet offensive in 68 showed how riddled S Vietnam was with Vietgong infiltration and supporters of the North. That’s v clearly not the case in Ukraine.
We have been much smarter this time.
Probably the biggest load of garbage I have read in a long time.
Delusional.
Listen to this Australian in the Bakhmut theatre to help you to understand the reality :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKZpYglZrW4
Why have the lessons of Vietnam, Afghanistan etc still not been learned – even of Russia (invaded by the Germans). Cause a country enough grief and they will NEVER back down – the Kurds -still fighting and will forever etc etc. Learning history, repeating blah blah – the imbecility of psychopathic tyrants and the gormless commoners who let them have their way , blah blah – and round and round we go. I guess this is why the Yanks hang onto their guns – it is kinda making more sense these days…………….thought i would never say that !!!!
Probably the biggest load of garbage I have read in a long time.
Delusional.
Listen to this Australian in the Bakhmut theatre to help you to understand the reality :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKZpYglZrW4
It’s existential for the Ukrainians, so in a population of 40 millions they could easily generate another army from all adult men constituting several millions. Their economy is screwed so they have nothing else to do.
For the Russians it isn’t existential, so Russians won’t accept going on the total war mobilisation required to beat a Ukrainian army of several millions.
“For the Russians it isn’t existential”
Wut ?!
I’m firmly convinced that Moscow would nuke London and Washington rather than lose Sevastopol.
I’m speculating, like you, of course.
But unlike you, it seems, I actually listen to what Putin and Lavrov actually say, rather than have my news shat out to me by the likes of the BBC, CNN and David Patrikarkos of this parish.
“For the Russians it isn’t existential”
Wut ?!
I’m firmly convinced that Moscow would nuke London and Washington rather than lose Sevastopol.
I’m speculating, like you, of course.
But unlike you, it seems, I actually listen to what Putin and Lavrov actually say, rather than have my news shat out to me by the likes of the BBC, CNN and David Patrikarkos of this parish.
How can it become a manoeuvre conflict when the Ukies are dug into concrete bunkers in places like Ugledar, Avdeevka and Artymovsk ?
They’re sitting ducks which is why the Russian Artillery is pounding them into a zombie PTSD state and then Wagner is mopping them up.
Is that still the case where an offensive force is considered? I can see that from the point of view of defensive position but at some point during a war of aggression numbers will have a greater psychological impact.
Bad analogy. But going in the right direction.
Grant had an overall four-to-one superiority in manpower in 1864. And that was only possible because of three years of attrition warfare.
Remember, the South could only recruit from a free population of 4 million, while the North had 20 million.
Ukraine is a third the population of Russia, but with a million already under arms.
Even with another call-up, Russia will have only a marginal superiority–and now, a clear qualitative inferiority.
“huge amount of equipment in storage” most of which is inoperable as they are discovering. Parts sold year ago.
This is true, but how many men can Russia throw into the meat grinder before it starts to cause unrest? It’s one thing using prisoners and peasants from Siberia and the Caucuses as cannon fodder, it’s quite different when you start mobilising large numbers from Moscow and St Petersburg
The Ukrainians do not have a manpower issue. They’ve up to a 1million mobilised or trained/training. The Russians can deploy more of course if they further enforce conscription, but they haven’t got the Ukrainian’s anywhere near a reinforcements problem. Nor is this likely. Russia may have the theoretical manpower but can’t sustain heavy losses without victories without morale collapsing and risk of social unrest. They already have a ‘go-forward’ problem.
Of course that doesn’t mean losses aren’t tragic and desperate, but one Ukrainian soldier is proving worth a good number of Russians . Fighting on your home soil against a known barbarous invader a force multiplier.
It’s existential for the Ukrainians, so in a population of 40 millions they could easily generate another army from all adult men constituting several millions. Their economy is screwed so they have nothing else to do.
For the Russians it isn’t existential, so Russians won’t accept going on the total war mobilisation required to beat a Ukrainian army of several millions.
How can it become a manoeuvre conflict when the Ukies are dug into concrete bunkers in places like Ugledar, Avdeevka and Artymovsk ?
They’re sitting ducks which is why the Russian Artillery is pounding them into a zombie PTSD state and then Wagner is mopping them up.
Re your first point, I was told off the record that this has indeed happened. Re your second point, the answer is also yes: Russian casualties are now happening at a quicker rate. But Ukraine is losing better-trained, more experienced soldiers, so even if the ratio has shifted in Ukraine’s favour, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the war is turning in their favour.
“I was told off the record that this has indeed happened.”
Lol. Well, that’s me convinced, chief.
No video evidence has emerged, but James from Unherd got a tip-off, so it must be true.
Hahahahahahaha
“I was told off the record that this has indeed happened.”
Lol. Well, that’s me convinced, chief.
No video evidence has emerged, but James from Unherd got a tip-off, so it must be true.
Hahahahahahaha
If the Russians were using human wave attacks then we would have seen the videos by now
Exactly. It’s utter bullshit, simply allowing all these keyboard warriors to claim that OK, maybe the Russians ARE winning, bUt LoOk aT tHEir CAsuaLTiES !!
Exactly. It’s utter bullshit, simply allowing all these keyboard warriors to claim that OK, maybe the Russians ARE winning, bUt LoOk aT tHEir CAsuaLTiES !!
Russia has a long history of never giving up no matter what the cost, as was proven in WW2 and in its war with Napoleon. I suspect, sadly, this will be no different. I don’t know what the prison population of Russia is but there will be plenty more troops to be conscripted after the last living Ukrainian is tragically killed. It is the ordinary Ukrainians that are the real cannon fodder with satanic NATO perfectly happy to see them die in their horrible proxy war with Russia.
They gave up in Afghanistan. ( Your comment about NATO rather undermines your credibility. )
Read a history book! Russia has lost wars to Japan, Finland, Afghanistan, Germany (WW1). In fact Russia has only “won” one war WW2 and that was with the help of USA and U.K.
They won the Chechen Wars so decisively that only 20 years later, the Chechens are fighting alongside the Russians.
And you think Afghanistan has any lessons for this war ?
Russia now has a professional army, backed up by militias of the strength of Wagner, the Chechens, the Donetsk Peoples Militia.
Five years ago, one of my wifes cousins was posted with the Russian Army to Sakhalin. She explained the Army now was a very prestigious gig in Russia and the men highly motivated, paid and trained.
Listen to this interview from an Australian in Bakhmut talk about how well equipped the Russians are in comparison to the Ukrainians :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKZpYglZrW4
The whole hour long interview is worth listening to, but particularly 5.21 – 8.15. These 3 minutes pour cold water on almost all the comments in this thread.
They won the Chechen Wars so decisively that only 20 years later, the Chechens are fighting alongside the Russians.
And you think Afghanistan has any lessons for this war ?
Russia now has a professional army, backed up by militias of the strength of Wagner, the Chechens, the Donetsk Peoples Militia.
Five years ago, one of my wifes cousins was posted with the Russian Army to Sakhalin. She explained the Army now was a very prestigious gig in Russia and the men highly motivated, paid and trained.
Listen to this interview from an Australian in Bakhmut talk about how well equipped the Russians are in comparison to the Ukrainians :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKZpYglZrW4
The whole hour long interview is worth listening to, but particularly 5.21 – 8.15. These 3 minutes pour cold water on almost all the comments in this thread.
At last, some sense amid this sea of cope, delusion and nonsense.
They gave up in Afghanistan. ( Your comment about NATO rather undermines your credibility. )
Read a history book! Russia has lost wars to Japan, Finland, Afghanistan, Germany (WW1). In fact Russia has only “won” one war WW2 and that was with the help of USA and U.K.
At last, some sense amid this sea of cope, delusion and nonsense.
Where do you get this nonsense from ? Some NED-funded NGO in Kiev ? The BBC ? CNN ?
If you want to be seriously depressed, but yet much more informed about the way the Russians operationally and tactically deploy, listen to this Australian mercenary actually describing the Bakhmut theatre.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKZpYglZrW4
This “human wave” idea is a complete myth.
Its not the numbers that matter. Its the percentage of available forces lost. The Russian can loose 3 or 4 times more than the Ukrainians and still win. There’s talk of mobilization of another 200,000 Russians. There comes a point where the Ukrainians don’t have the numbers to defend the current line and have to retreat. Similar to Grant’s campaign in the East in 1864-65. If the war continues as a battle of attrition the Russians win because they have a greater population and huge amount of equipment in storage. That’s why the supply of western tanks is so vital. It turns an attrition conflict, which favors Russia, into a manoeuvre conflict, which favors Ukraine.
Re your first point, I was told off the record that this has indeed happened. Re your second point, the answer is also yes: Russian casualties are now happening at a quicker rate. But Ukraine is losing better-trained, more experienced soldiers, so even if the ratio has shifted in Ukraine’s favour, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the war is turning in their favour.
If the Russians were using human wave attacks then we would have seen the videos by now
Russia has a long history of never giving up no matter what the cost, as was proven in WW2 and in its war with Napoleon. I suspect, sadly, this will be no different. I don’t know what the prison population of Russia is but there will be plenty more troops to be conscripted after the last living Ukrainian is tragically killed. It is the ordinary Ukrainians that are the real cannon fodder with satanic NATO perfectly happy to see them die in their horrible proxy war with Russia.
Where do you get this nonsense from ? Some NED-funded NGO in Kiev ? The BBC ? CNN ?
If you want to be seriously depressed, but yet much more informed about the way the Russians operationally and tactically deploy, listen to this Australian mercenary actually describing the Bakhmut theatre.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKZpYglZrW4
This “human wave” idea is a complete myth.
I claim no expertise, but if the Russians are using human wave attacks by poorly trained and ill-equipped troops then their casualty rate is likely to be far high than that experienced by the defenders.
One question I have is “Has the casualty rate experienced by both sides changed over the course of the war?” This may seem a ghoulish question but it surely has some significance for the final outcome – Even the Russians run out of cannon fodder eventually.
Not sure the body count means much except when new bodies can’t be found to enter combat. So far neither side has run out of bodies.
What does win war is logistics. In the US civil war as with all wars, the ability to furnish the weapons and materials of war define who ultimately wins. There are exceptions related to the public opinion eliminating support, Vietnam and Afghanistan are notable. But in the Ukraine war the west can supply goods forever, but Russia can’t. Ukraine might face huge destruction but if citizens decide to continue the fight, their supply lines will not falter.
You assume western countries will not grow weary of shouldering the burden of logistics to the Ukrainians. Certainly, the west can continue far longer than Russia, but whether they will or not is an entirely different question. I do agree that logistics wins wars, but I wouldn’t undersell the advantage of fighting in the defense of your home.
“But in the Ukraine war the west can supply goods forever, but Russia can’t.”
“But in the Ukraine war Russia can supply goods forever, but the west can’t.”
FTFY
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
You assume western countries will not grow weary of shouldering the burden of logistics to the Ukrainians. Certainly, the west can continue far longer than Russia, but whether they will or not is an entirely different question. I do agree that logistics wins wars, but I wouldn’t undersell the advantage of fighting in the defense of your home.
“But in the Ukraine war the west can supply goods forever, but Russia can’t.”
“But in the Ukraine war Russia can supply goods forever, but the west can’t.”
FTFY
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
Not sure the body count means much except when new bodies can’t be found to enter combat. So far neither side has run out of bodies.
What does win war is logistics. In the US civil war as with all wars, the ability to furnish the weapons and materials of war define who ultimately wins. There are exceptions related to the public opinion eliminating support, Vietnam and Afghanistan are notable. But in the Ukraine war the west can supply goods forever, but Russia can’t. Ukraine might face huge destruction but if citizens decide to continue the fight, their supply lines will not falter.
The Ukrainian war is a war of attrition rather like the Korea war. Both gulf wars achieved success by manoeuvre warfare. The Russians lack the tactical ability to fight manoeuvre warfare and the Ukrainians lack the weapons to fight manoeuvre warfare. That’s why the supply of western tanks has been considered vital. This gives the Ukrainians the ability to breakthrough the Russian lines and destroy Russian logistics. The Ukrainians have demonstrated the ability to breakthrough Russian lines but lacked the numbers and logistics support to fully exploit their tactical success. The Russians are losing at the tactical level but have a marginal win at the operational level because they can sustain attritional warfare. This article doesn’t mention the vital difference between attrition and manoeuvre casualties.
I’m not sure it’s a lack of tactical ability on the Russians’ part so much as a different doctrine, based on overwhelming firepower and as you say attrition rather than Gulf War-style manoeuvre (which itself depended on a good deal of firepower preceding it to degrade enemy logistics and prevent defence in depth).
This is untrue. The initial Russian timetable was to take Kyiv in 3 days. The use of air assault regiment to take the airfield north of Kyiv the infiltration of special forces and then being relieved by armored columns is straight of the theory of deep operations. It’s exactly what an attack on NATO in 1985 would have looked like. The Soivet plans had them reaching the Rhine by H+48 to H+72. That’s not attrition warfare.
In manoeuvre warfare you achieve a numerical advantage at the point of attack and use huge amounts of artillery to suppres infantry defences. The problem is that they can’t co ordinate between artillery, infantry and armor. So instead of being able to stage a breakthrough they have reverted to tactics of 1917-18. Pre planned artillery barrages followed by limted advances to bite and hold. The Russians tried and failed to implement manoeuvre warfare. That doesn’t matter to them because they can win by attrition.
Sorry, the Russian Army is in no way the Soviet.
First of all, they lack the wheeled transport to support any deep penetration. Even if the hare-brained Hostomel attack had succeeded, they would only have reached Kyiv, and got no further.
That would have just started a huge irregular war.
True, memories of the Great Patriotic War still delude Russia’s leadership.
But they conveniently (and fatally) forget that without 400,000 American trucks, any Soviet offensives would have been just as barren of success as Germany’s in 1941-2.
Russian officers are just too intellectually isolated to fight a war like this.
The infinite US logistics chain of WWII allowed the Russians to fight on. That same logistics chain ended the war.
“Russian officers are just too intellectually isolated to fight a war like this.”
Well, their lack of intellect isn’t stopping them winning this war, which doesn’t speak much for NATO, does it ?
Losing a war to stupid jail-bait.
The infinite US logistics chain of WWII allowed the Russians to fight on. That same logistics chain ended the war.
“Russian officers are just too intellectually isolated to fight a war like this.”
Well, their lack of intellect isn’t stopping them winning this war, which doesn’t speak much for NATO, does it ?
Losing a war to stupid jail-bait.
“The initial Russian timetable was to take Kyiv in 3 days.”
Got a quote for this, friend, other that some blowhard speculating on a Russian TV channel ?
Sorry, the Russian Army is in no way the Soviet.
First of all, they lack the wheeled transport to support any deep penetration. Even if the hare-brained Hostomel attack had succeeded, they would only have reached Kyiv, and got no further.
That would have just started a huge irregular war.
True, memories of the Great Patriotic War still delude Russia’s leadership.
But they conveniently (and fatally) forget that without 400,000 American trucks, any Soviet offensives would have been just as barren of success as Germany’s in 1941-2.
Russian officers are just too intellectually isolated to fight a war like this.
“The initial Russian timetable was to take Kyiv in 3 days.”
Got a quote for this, friend, other that some blowhard speculating on a Russian TV channel ?
Correct. Russian artillery tactics is what is winning this war for them.
This is untrue. The initial Russian timetable was to take Kyiv in 3 days. The use of air assault regiment to take the airfield north of Kyiv the infiltration of special forces and then being relieved by armored columns is straight of the theory of deep operations. It’s exactly what an attack on NATO in 1985 would have looked like. The Soivet plans had them reaching the Rhine by H+48 to H+72. That’s not attrition warfare.
In manoeuvre warfare you achieve a numerical advantage at the point of attack and use huge amounts of artillery to suppres infantry defences. The problem is that they can’t co ordinate between artillery, infantry and armor. So instead of being able to stage a breakthrough they have reverted to tactics of 1917-18. Pre planned artillery barrages followed by limted advances to bite and hold. The Russians tried and failed to implement manoeuvre warfare. That doesn’t matter to them because they can win by attrition.
Correct. Russian artillery tactics is what is winning this war for them.
Incredibly optimistic thinking to assume that 100 tanks are going to give Ukraine the ability to break through Russian lines and destroy logistics. The Russians are in a much stronger defensive position now than they were before, so I suspect that the tanks (which likely won’t be functional on the ground for months) will raise the likelihood of a stalemate, rather than a decisive breakthrough for Ukraine.
The Iraqs were dug in too. Didn’t do them any good. The Egyptians and Syrians were dug in as well, guess what they lost. Its shock provided by artillery to suppress atgm and knock out supporting fire. If you co ordinates combined arms you allow your engineering vehicles to clear static defences. This isn’t rocket science it’s an 80 year tactical ability. The difficulty is in getting all arms to work together. That takes training, planning and good leadership from nco level upwards.
Of which western armies have plenty, and the Russian Army clearly lacks.
Follow Girkin’s Telegram Channel.
He’s a war criminal from 2014, but the only sane “voenkor” (war correspondent).
You can translate him in Google translate.
https://t.me/s/strelkovii
Notable absolute dominance in the air. Dug-in means little to a barrage of 2000# bombs on target.
Of which western armies have plenty, and the Russian Army clearly lacks.
Follow Girkin’s Telegram Channel.
He’s a war criminal from 2014, but the only sane “voenkor” (war correspondent).
You can translate him in Google translate.
https://t.me/s/strelkovii
Notable absolute dominance in the air. Dug-in means little to a barrage of 2000# bombs on target.
The Iraqs were dug in too. Didn’t do them any good. The Egyptians and Syrians were dug in as well, guess what they lost. Its shock provided by artillery to suppress atgm and knock out supporting fire. If you co ordinates combined arms you allow your engineering vehicles to clear static defences. This isn’t rocket science it’s an 80 year tactical ability. The difficulty is in getting all arms to work together. That takes training, planning and good leadership from nco level upwards.
I’m not sure it’s a lack of tactical ability on the Russians’ part so much as a different doctrine, based on overwhelming firepower and as you say attrition rather than Gulf War-style manoeuvre (which itself depended on a good deal of firepower preceding it to degrade enemy logistics and prevent defence in depth).
Incredibly optimistic thinking to assume that 100 tanks are going to give Ukraine the ability to break through Russian lines and destroy logistics. The Russians are in a much stronger defensive position now than they were before, so I suspect that the tanks (which likely won’t be functional on the ground for months) will raise the likelihood of a stalemate, rather than a decisive breakthrough for Ukraine.
The Ukrainian war is a war of attrition rather like the Korea war. Both gulf wars achieved success by manoeuvre warfare. The Russians lack the tactical ability to fight manoeuvre warfare and the Ukrainians lack the weapons to fight manoeuvre warfare. That’s why the supply of western tanks has been considered vital. This gives the Ukrainians the ability to breakthrough the Russian lines and destroy Russian logistics. The Ukrainians have demonstrated the ability to breakthrough Russian lines but lacked the numbers and logistics support to fully exploit their tactical success. The Russians are losing at the tactical level but have a marginal win at the operational level because they can sustain attritional warfare. This article doesn’t mention the vital difference between attrition and manoeuvre casualties.
Does anybody really believe these figures from Norway? Since when we been getting Intel. from Norway, when it suits the narrative. As for Milley, why’s he asking for a ceasefire?
just reverse these figures and they may be about right. We’ll know for certain when they bring back the draft in Germany, they already have done in Poland. NATO is running out of Ukrainians.
Does anybody really believe these figures from Norway? Since when we been getting Intel. from Norway, when it suits the narrative. As for Milley, why’s he asking for a ceasefire?
just reverse these figures and they may be about right. We’ll know for certain when they bring back the draft in Germany, they already have done in Poland. NATO is running out of Ukrainians.
Whatever the Russian casualties are you can bet your bottom dollar that anything coming out of so called western experts and analysts, is simple propaganda to boost public support for public funds and resources being siphoned off to support Ukraine. Norway’s Chief of Defence, the US Chief of Staff or Rand are precisely the sort of western propaganda foghorns whose public utterances on the matter are as reliable as Colin Powell’s lie to the UN Security Council regarding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. They are deliberately spun to mislead.
A more reliable source revealed by its attempt to bury it, is Ursula von Der Leyen’s utterance of the alarming state of Ukrainian losses suggesting the precariousness of the Western trained and armed Ukrainian army being used as canon fodder against Russia. On realising she had let the cat out of the bag as to the real state of affairs, the EU propagandists quickly moved in to action to remove the clip and explain it away. Fortunately others managed to preserve it. It is accessible in the public domain on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EB8GQnRJHWg
Whatever the Russian casualties are you can bet your bottom dollar that anything coming out of so called western experts and analysts, is simple propaganda to boost public support for public funds and resources being siphoned off to support Ukraine. Norway’s Chief of Defence, the US Chief of Staff or Rand are precisely the sort of western propaganda foghorns whose public utterances on the matter are as reliable as Colin Powell’s lie to the UN Security Council regarding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. They are deliberately spun to mislead.
A more reliable source revealed by its attempt to bury it, is Ursula von Der Leyen’s utterance of the alarming state of Ukrainian losses suggesting the precariousness of the Western trained and armed Ukrainian army being used as canon fodder against Russia. On realising she had let the cat out of the bag as to the real state of affairs, the EU propagandists quickly moved in to action to remove the clip and explain it away. Fortunately others managed to preserve it. It is accessible in the public domain on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EB8GQnRJHWg
The war has momentarily halted due to ukranian mud. This was expected.
Russia has also managed to occupy some small town. It’s war, sometimes the bad guy wins something.
Now these kinds of posts are starting to show up here and on other sites: ”The russians are just to many. They will never stop coming. The ukranians must give way for the russian might. They always win in the end”. And so on.
Thing is that Russia won’t be allowed to win. The West, albeit a bit slow sometimes, has always stepped up to help Ukraine. Latest reinforcement is of course the Abrahams and Leopard tanks. F-16 fighters are constantly talked about. Today Rheinmetall announced they will increase production of 155mm shells to around 500.000 a year. 120mm tank shells to about 240.000. They are in talks with Lockheed about producing actual HIMARS here in Europe.
So you see, it won’t matter how many russians are sent to the front. The West has decided that this plague of a country is to be defanged and rendered unthreatening. But it will happen in small increments and Russia herself will choose if she wants to continue to the bitter end or back off in time.
The war has momentarily halted due to ukranian mud. This was expected.
Russia has also managed to occupy some small town. It’s war, sometimes the bad guy wins something.
Now these kinds of posts are starting to show up here and on other sites: ”The russians are just to many. They will never stop coming. The ukranians must give way for the russian might. They always win in the end”. And so on.
Thing is that Russia won’t be allowed to win. The West, albeit a bit slow sometimes, has always stepped up to help Ukraine. Latest reinforcement is of course the Abrahams and Leopard tanks. F-16 fighters are constantly talked about. Today Rheinmetall announced they will increase production of 155mm shells to around 500.000 a year. 120mm tank shells to about 240.000. They are in talks with Lockheed about producing actual HIMARS here in Europe.
So you see, it won’t matter how many russians are sent to the front. The West has decided that this plague of a country is to be defanged and rendered unthreatening. But it will happen in small increments and Russia herself will choose if she wants to continue to the bitter end or back off in time.
What a difference a day makes.
The writer is correct about the casualty rates–no one knows, or will know–until well after the conflict ends.
But the dispatch of Abrams and Leopards decisively changes the war’s dynamic. The western tanks won’t be available for months, which seems to create a window of opportunity for Russia.
Sadly, however, something called the “rasputitsa” (the two-month long muddy season) will upset Russia’s war plans permanently. Until May, manoeuvre by vehicles is difficult if not impossible, as the Russians found out before Kyiv.
So Putin will either have to send his ill-prepared and equipped 150,000 “mobiks” against Ukrainian defences now, in the midst of winter, or wait and face a Ukrainian tank force far better manned, organized and led in May or June.
It may yet be a long war. But now it is a war that Russia cannot win, either in the long or short term.
“But now it is a war that Russia cannot win, either in the long or short term.” Given the logistics involved a true statement.
Why is it sad that the weather prevents a Russian advance before the Ukrainians can replenish their defences? I think most people in the world would argue that’s a good thing
“But now it is a war that Russia cannot win, either in the long or short term.” Given the logistics involved a true statement.
Why is it sad that the weather prevents a Russian advance before the Ukrainians can replenish their defences? I think most people in the world would argue that’s a good thing
What a difference a day makes.
The writer is correct about the casualty rates–no one knows, or will know–until well after the conflict ends.
But the dispatch of Abrams and Leopards decisively changes the war’s dynamic. The western tanks won’t be available for months, which seems to create a window of opportunity for Russia.
Sadly, however, something called the “rasputitsa” (the two-month long muddy season) will upset Russia’s war plans permanently. Until May, manoeuvre by vehicles is difficult if not impossible, as the Russians found out before Kyiv.
So Putin will either have to send his ill-prepared and equipped 150,000 “mobiks” against Ukrainian defences now, in the midst of winter, or wait and face a Ukrainian tank force far better manned, organized and led in May or June.
It may yet be a long war. But now it is a war that Russia cannot win, either in the long or short term.