Last week’s Brics summit was supposed to herald the dawn of a new world order. It would announce the end of the American era and the rise of another, this time belonging to developing nations. It would even, according to excitable analysts, be remembered as another Bandung Conference, the 1955 meeting that paved the way for a non-aligned movement during the Cold War.
And on that front, the gathering in Johannesburg succeeded. The organisation announced its first expansion since its founding in 2009: next year, the five original Brics members — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — will be joined by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia and Argentina (provided the current government wins the upcoming elections, which seems unlikely). Even more significantly, the summit underscored the bloc’s inclination to use its increasing economic clout to challenge the Western-dominated global order. The combination of these two elements — growing economic muscle and political boldness — means that the bloc (to be renamed Brics Plus) has become a full-blooded geopolitical actor that can longer be ignored.
In demographic and economic terms, the power of the Brics, especially in light of its recent expansion, is all too evident. With its new members, the bloc will represent almost half of the global population. In terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), the most appropriate measure for comparing the relative economic size of countries, it already represented nearly one third of global GDP — more than the US-led G7’s economies, which account for 30%. The latest additions will bring its share up to 37%.
This gap with the West will only widen, considering that emerging and developing countries are predicted to grow at much higher rates in the coming years, and that more countries are likely to join. More than 40 countries have reportedly expressed interest in joining, and 22 of them have formally asked to be admitted. In other words, the overwhelming majority of the world’s population lives in countries that are either already in the Brics or aspire to be.
The importance of this becomes even more apparent if we look at what countries produce, rather than just how much they produce. Over the past decades, Western economies have become increasingly financialised and seen their industrial production stagnate, meaning that a large part of their GDP doesn’t represent the production of actual goods but rather of financial assets. If we look at actual production — manufacturing — the gap between the West and the Brics is even starker: the G7 countries as whole contribute to global manufacturing output roughly as much as China does on its own.
But the growing power of this new alliance is about much more than just GDP and the production of stuff; it’s also about resources. The integration of two of the world’s top oil producers — Saudi Arabia and the UAE — means that the Brics members will account for more than 40% of global oil production. The fact that two of America’s staunchest allies in the Persian Gulf have decided to join a China-led (and increasingly politicised) alliance exemplifies better than anything else the paradigm shift underway. US officials can downplay the significance of the event as much as they want, but its symbolic value is clear — especially if we consider that the two Gulf countries are joined by Iran, one of America’s most notorious arch-enemies.
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeThis is a great summary of the BRICS+ movement and helpful explanation of the different motives behind those who want to see its success. There are a lot of things standing in the way of that success, and adding nations adds complexity and for anyone who has ever been on any kind of committee, the more people that are in it, the harder it is to reach a consensus or get anything done. Which is why a common currency for anything but trade resolutions seems unlikely.
`To me BRICS just looks like a huge global trade partnership (sans the West) with a development bank access, and nations capable of providing and implementing infrastructure projects. Which that seems like China’s Belt and Road initiative policies institutionalized. It’s also something the West so far has been either unwilling or unable to match in either posture or real investment.
Narratives about how it’s going to all fail , or how it’s secretly all sinister is probably the best the West will be able to muster. Which, the thing is, it might all end badly. The rise of the rest of the world with the help of big actors like China might end up imposing something worse on the world than we have ever seen, or it might not. It might be really good. The rise of multipolarism and greater global diplomacy might happen, and be a really good thing. For now, I’m taking an optimistic stance.
You have written the sanest analysis compared to both the one sided article as well as some of the comments steeped in prejudiced ignorance.
Steve has written some great comments, why was the article one sided??
I agree with Steve. I meant Fazi.
I agree with Steve. I meant Fazi.
I meant the main piece. Not the comments by you. It is your comments I praised.
Steve has written some great comments, why was the article one sided??
I meant the main piece. Not the comments by you. It is your comments I praised.
I agree improving on US dominance is a low bar.
Be careful what you wish for, I’d say. 20th century big picture choices: Bolshevik Russia; Nazi Germany and Mao’s China. Who each killed millions of people. Or the US. The first two especially were very plausible alternative possible world orders.
A still Marxist Leninist China has now revived, and many of the remaining states are brutally repressive – absolutely none of this discussion would be happening in those. So I’m still rooting for the West and in particular the US. We see all its many problems up close: we are obsessed with the place. By contrast the day to day brutality of India with its odious caste system (traditional, so that’s ok), persecution of tribal people, massive military occupation of Muslim majority Kashmir and just so many other examples gets a tiny fraction of the attention. And that’s one of the better ones. China, which of course has no plurality of media whatsoever, is vastly worded and of course simply lies on many issues.
Be careful what you wish for, I’d say. 20th century big picture choices: Bolshevik Russia; Nazi Germany and Mao’s China. Who each killed millions of people. Or the US. The first two especially were very plausible alternative possible world orders.
A still Marxist Leninist China has now revived, and many of the remaining states are brutally repressive – absolutely none of this discussion would be happening in those. So I’m still rooting for the West and in particular the US. We see all its many problems up close: we are obsessed with the place. By contrast the day to day brutality of India with its odious caste system (traditional, so that’s ok), persecution of tribal people, massive military occupation of Muslim majority Kashmir and just so many other examples gets a tiny fraction of the attention. And that’s one of the better ones. China, which of course has no plurality of media whatsoever, is vastly worded and of course simply lies on many issues.
The chance of a new world order led by China and Russia bringing something “really good” are essentially zero. Get real.
Why is a transfer of power to some of the most repressive governments in the world likely to be “a good thing” albeit much of it might be inevitable?
Investing in railways, roads and ports might sometimes be impressive , but some of the Chinese investment scarcely differs from that of the former “imperialist” western investment with huge strings attached which is routinely decried. The pure business case for some of the off shore investments, like the airport and port in Sri Lanka, seem to be economically useless and if you were a cynic almost designed to impose dependency.
In any case, this hardly amounts to a major benevolent social and moral purpose of states, with their awesome potential repressive power over their peoples.
You have written the sanest analysis compared to both the one sided article as well as some of the comments steeped in prejudiced ignorance.
I agree improving on US dominance is a low bar.
The chance of a new world order led by China and Russia bringing something “really good” are essentially zero. Get real.
Why is a transfer of power to some of the most repressive governments in the world likely to be “a good thing” albeit much of it might be inevitable?
Investing in railways, roads and ports might sometimes be impressive , but some of the Chinese investment scarcely differs from that of the former “imperialist” western investment with huge strings attached which is routinely decried. The pure business case for some of the off shore investments, like the airport and port in Sri Lanka, seem to be economically useless and if you were a cynic almost designed to impose dependency.
In any case, this hardly amounts to a major benevolent social and moral purpose of states, with their awesome potential repressive power over their peoples.
This is a great summary of the BRICS+ movement and helpful explanation of the different motives behind those who want to see its success. There are a lot of things standing in the way of that success, and adding nations adds complexity and for anyone who has ever been on any kind of committee, the more people that are in it, the harder it is to reach a consensus or get anything done. Which is why a common currency for anything but trade resolutions seems unlikely.
`To me BRICS just looks like a huge global trade partnership (sans the West) with a development bank access, and nations capable of providing and implementing infrastructure projects. Which that seems like China’s Belt and Road initiative policies institutionalized. It’s also something the West so far has been either unwilling or unable to match in either posture or real investment.
Narratives about how it’s going to all fail , or how it’s secretly all sinister is probably the best the West will be able to muster. Which, the thing is, it might all end badly. The rise of the rest of the world with the help of big actors like China might end up imposing something worse on the world than we have ever seen, or it might not. It might be really good. The rise of multipolarism and greater global diplomacy might happen, and be a really good thing. For now, I’m taking an optimistic stance.
A very interesting article on a rather consequential development.
However, Westen soft power is still too strong for Brics or Brics plus or Brics Alpha to have much long term staying power.
As long as the global population consumes Hollywood and Westen media, wears Westen luxury brands and accessories, aspires to western luxury vehicles, reads western content, sends their children to western schools, colleges and universities, prefers western sons and daughters in law, maintains savings in dollars, euros and pounds in western banks in western countries, this new bloc won’t amount to much.
Till rich Emirati men are vacationing in Shanghai and Russian oligarchs are rocking up in Mumbai with their fortunes the G7 will remain paramount.
I think you are entirely right about the West’s strengths in culture and soft power but that, on the other hand, it has an Achilles’ heel in terms of finances – and especially in the use of the dollar as a reserve currency. I think we should see the BRICS threat more in that context.
For comparison, the downfall of the British was as much about declining financial strength as anything else. Having built up an enormous pool of investments by 1914 in America, Argentina, India, etc etc it had to sell half to finance WW1 and the rest for WW2. By 1945 it was running on IOUs of which one form was the continued willingness of many countries to hold their reserves as Sterling at the Bank of England. The history of 1945 to 1975 was largely a matter of these IOUs coming due and the British trying to cut their colonies, overseas garrisons and other commitments to economise – and simultaneously becoming subservient to their largest creditor, America.
Today America is basically where Britain was then. The only difference is that they have dissipated their foreign investments and accumulated IOUs to finance a credit driven boom rather than two world wars.
The Chinese are adept at exploiting the chinks in the West’s armour and usually astute enough to avoid challenging it where it is robust. On a military level, they developed relatively cheap long range missiles which have neutralised the US Pacific fleet. Now they are using the BRICS to hit America where it will hurt financially – by pushing the de dollarisation of official reserves and oil.
The Chinese are playing a more crafty game in this new Cold War than the Russians did in the old one – or Putin has recently. Maybe Go produces subtler strategists than Chess or Poker.
How do you know the Chinese missiles have neutralised the US Pacific fleet ? That proposition has never been tested. Conjecture, not fact.
China has far bigger problems than the USA. Their debt problems are an order of magnitude worse than those of the US. As is their housing market bubble. All against a backdrop of demographic decline and failling competiveness. We’ll look back in 10 years time and realise that “peak China” was already behind us in 2023.
Another delusional article full of wishful thinking, but with no basis in reality.
The US has unfunded liabilities of nearly $200 trillion. This isn’t only an economic but a social and political time bomb waiting to go off.
I am not sure I would describe the observation that the Chinese are capable of some clever strategic moves as “wishful thinking”. Rather the reverse. Fortunately, they are also capable of some remarkably dumb ones such as “Wolf diplomacy”.
Missiles? Conjecture? Maybe but it is a widespread one. To be more precise the missiles are seen as pushing the area the US Navy can safely operate in eastwards by about 1000 km. See various US war games and discussions of defending the first and second island chains.
I entirely agree with you that China is heading into a major economic crisis in the short term and is demographically challenged long term. I was not attempting a complete survey of the US-Chinese relationship just pointing out that the US has an Achilles heel.
You or someone seems to have censored/ flagged my remarks about the US Navy’s Ohio class submarines.
Suffice to say they are more than enough to chastise China, regardless of its “cheap long range missiles”.
Also my observation that WE both missed that Sayantani is a female praenomen, something that would have amused old Dyer, if not your good self.
You or someone seems to have censored/ flagged my remarks about the US Navy’s Ohio class submarines.
Suffice to say they are more than enough to chastise China, regardless of its “cheap long range missiles”.
Also my observation that WE both missed that Sayantani is a female praenomen, something that would have amused old Dyer, if not your good self.
Well said, I can never understand all this fuss over Fu Manchu & Co.
All six major Chinese dynasties seem to have been clones of the previous one. The much vaunted ‘competitive ‘Mandarin’ examination system had the same syllabus for more than a thousand years…..the study of Confucius.
When their ‘great treasure fleets’ left China at the beginning of the 15th century, they right instead of left and thus failed to ‘discover’ America (thank God.)
Finally as you probably know they first invented gunpowder, printing, and the magnetic compass, three key ingredients for achieving world supremacy, but yet again they failed! Why?
Maybe Charles because they are not as pugnacious as you or the US?
Judging by let’s say ‘The Great Leap Forward’ they are far, far, worse!
They even eat dogs for God’s sake, Valentine old fruit. Surely even your good self doesn’t approve of that?
Judging by let’s say ‘The Great Leap Forward’ they are far, far, worse!
They even eat dogs for God’s sake, Valentine old fruit. Surely even your good self doesn’t approve of that?
Maybe Charles because they are not as pugnacious as you or the US?
That’s one thing that many people don’t understand is that countries that can manufacture missiles cheaply and in the most quantity win the future. Making all ships nearly obsolete. Our nuclear submarine fleet is really the only significant advantage we have, and it is very significant. Aircraft carriers are simply floating targets. We are still building equipment and our military based on old WWII models. There has been a huge technological change in what a military needs in the era when satellites see everything going on everywhere all at once. The US doesn’t even have a working hypersonic missile.
That is a HUGE problem. Even Iran has them now, and the other problem is since we all sold out to globalism and hollowed out all our manufacturing, we can’t produce this stuff like China and Russia or even Iran or North Korea can.
Also because of political corruption and cronyism we in the West have only a handful of weapons manufacturers, with all the right people’s hand in the pot, and so we make missiles that cost $200,000, and they make them for $10,000-$20,000. In other words, they have purpose driven design and manufacturing, and we have profit driven design and manufacturing. Add to that the fact that we’ve got all these economic problems, NATO is falling apart because the EU is declining, and looking at a grim economic future, and the Neocons and globalists have totally screwed us all, and yet there is all this hubris and phony narratives pointing out other nations problems… Narratives don’t make reality.
I think the Ukraine conflict has shown missiles to be of limited use – much vaunted at the start of the war but in reality the American-supplied precision strikes doing more damage. Hypersonic missiles used by Russia we shot down using regular american systems – ones they had given Ukraine to test out. Putin said that hypersonic missiles would be a game changer. Turns out he was wrong.
Mr Gibbon obviously believes much of what he reads in the MSM.
Enough said.
Mr Gibbon obviously believes much of what he reads in the MSM.
Enough said.
The arms race tends to leapfrog from offensive capabilities (like hypersonic missiles) to defensive capabilities (the US Patriot system is showing effectiveness against Russian Kinsel missiles). Perhaps the next emergent defensive capability will be energy weapons with a combination of kinetic weapons based on electric rail guns. These may severely reduce the potency of hypersonic missiles. The US fleet will adapt.
“The US fleet will adapt”.
They don’t have to! The Ohios could ‘launch’ off Skegness if they wanted to.
“The US fleet will adapt”.
They don’t have to! The Ohios could ‘launch’ off Skegness if they wanted to.
“Aircraft carriers are simply floating targets”.
Correct but they do employ thousands building them do they not?
Hence the two ‘white elephants*’ we are currently saddled with, all thanks to Gordon Brown dispensing completely unnecessary largesse to ever needy Scotland, and the Clyde, Rosyth and Kirkcaldy in particular.
(*HMS Queen Elizabeth & HMS Prince of Wales.)
Not white elephants, Charles. They are weapons perfectly suited to defeat our most likely adversary in the 21st century – The Argies! HMS Hermes and HMS Invincible were crumbling relics but we were glad we had them when the time came.
Yes we were glad of them, and we could really have also done with Ark Royal and her Gannets, but the Falklands was an extraordinary one off, and vey unlikely to be repeated.
Politics otherwise known as ‘jobs for Scotland’ was the determining factor for the present two AC’s, and not the real needs of the Royal Navy I would argue.
Yes we were glad of them, and we could really have also done with Ark Royal and her Gannets, but the Falklands was an extraordinary one off, and vey unlikely to be repeated.
Politics otherwise known as ‘jobs for Scotland’ was the determining factor for the present two AC’s, and not the real needs of the Royal Navy I would argue.
Not white elephants, Charles. They are weapons perfectly suited to defeat our most likely adversary in the 21st century – The Argies! HMS Hermes and HMS Invincible were crumbling relics but we were glad we had them when the time came.
Indeed narratives do not make reality – as you say.
Yet here you are parroting a simplisitic narrative.
And one I suspect on no actual knowledge or experience in the defence industry or military. Or indeed many facts.
The principal reason Western military kit is expensive is that it is built to highly demanding military specifications and things like safety and reliability are taken very seriously. Are you quite certain that the Russian and Chinese kit really is the same standard ?
Furthermore, a large proportion of the costs of missilies will be the advanced technical components that the Russians used to buy in from the West (since they couldn’t keep up with the advanced technology to manufacture their own silicon chips here).
PS – if you believe the Russians actually have a properly working hypersonic missile, the New Yorkers have a bridge to sell you. It’s just word games from the Russians. Potemkin military these days.
The Soviet Navy ‘lost’ five nuclear submarines (one of them twice) and the Russian Navy two, so far.
By comparison the US Navy has lost TWO, and the Royal Navy none.*
(* Mind you we don’t have many in comparison to the others.)
We do have the only nuclear sub ever to have sunk a warship in battle.
Nelson would have been proud.
Nelson would have been proud.
We do have the only nuclear sub ever to have sunk a warship in battle.
The Soviet Navy ‘lost’ five nuclear submarines (one of them twice) and the Russian Navy two, so far.
By comparison the US Navy has lost TWO, and the Royal Navy none.*
(* Mind you we don’t have many in comparison to the others.)
Well said!
I think the Ukraine conflict has shown missiles to be of limited use – much vaunted at the start of the war but in reality the American-supplied precision strikes doing more damage. Hypersonic missiles used by Russia we shot down using regular american systems – ones they had given Ukraine to test out. Putin said that hypersonic missiles would be a game changer. Turns out he was wrong.
The arms race tends to leapfrog from offensive capabilities (like hypersonic missiles) to defensive capabilities (the US Patriot system is showing effectiveness against Russian Kinsel missiles). Perhaps the next emergent defensive capability will be energy weapons with a combination of kinetic weapons based on electric rail guns. These may severely reduce the potency of hypersonic missiles. The US fleet will adapt.
“Aircraft carriers are simply floating targets”.
Correct but they do employ thousands building them do they not?
Hence the two ‘white elephants*’ we are currently saddled with, all thanks to Gordon Brown dispensing completely unnecessary largesse to ever needy Scotland, and the Clyde, Rosyth and Kirkcaldy in particular.
(*HMS Queen Elizabeth & HMS Prince of Wales.)
Indeed narratives do not make reality – as you say.
Yet here you are parroting a simplisitic narrative.
And one I suspect on no actual knowledge or experience in the defence industry or military. Or indeed many facts.
The principal reason Western military kit is expensive is that it is built to highly demanding military specifications and things like safety and reliability are taken very seriously. Are you quite certain that the Russian and Chinese kit really is the same standard ?
Furthermore, a large proportion of the costs of missilies will be the advanced technical components that the Russians used to buy in from the West (since they couldn’t keep up with the advanced technology to manufacture their own silicon chips here).
PS – if you believe the Russians actually have a properly working hypersonic missile, the New Yorkers have a bridge to sell you. It’s just word games from the Russians. Potemkin military these days.
Well said!
The US has unfunded liabilities of nearly $200 trillion. This isn’t only an economic but a social and political time bomb waiting to go off.
I am not sure I would describe the observation that the Chinese are capable of some clever strategic moves as “wishful thinking”. Rather the reverse. Fortunately, they are also capable of some remarkably dumb ones such as “Wolf diplomacy”.
Missiles? Conjecture? Maybe but it is a widespread one. To be more precise the missiles are seen as pushing the area the US Navy can safely operate in eastwards by about 1000 km. See various US war games and discussions of defending the first and second island chains.
I entirely agree with you that China is heading into a major economic crisis in the short term and is demographically challenged long term. I was not attempting a complete survey of the US-Chinese relationship just pointing out that the US has an Achilles heel.
Well said, I can never understand all this fuss over Fu Manchu & Co.
All six major Chinese dynasties seem to have been clones of the previous one. The much vaunted ‘competitive ‘Mandarin’ examination system had the same syllabus for more than a thousand years…..the study of Confucius.
When their ‘great treasure fleets’ left China at the beginning of the 15th century, they right instead of left and thus failed to ‘discover’ America (thank God.)
Finally as you probably know they first invented gunpowder, printing, and the magnetic compass, three key ingredients for achieving world supremacy, but yet again they failed! Why?
That’s one thing that many people don’t understand is that countries that can manufacture missiles cheaply and in the most quantity win the future. Making all ships nearly obsolete. Our nuclear submarine fleet is really the only significant advantage we have, and it is very significant. Aircraft carriers are simply floating targets. We are still building equipment and our military based on old WWII models. There has been a huge technological change in what a military needs in the era when satellites see everything going on everywhere all at once. The US doesn’t even have a working hypersonic missile.
That is a HUGE problem. Even Iran has them now, and the other problem is since we all sold out to globalism and hollowed out all our manufacturing, we can’t produce this stuff like China and Russia or even Iran or North Korea can.
Also because of political corruption and cronyism we in the West have only a handful of weapons manufacturers, with all the right people’s hand in the pot, and so we make missiles that cost $200,000, and they make them for $10,000-$20,000. In other words, they have purpose driven design and manufacturing, and we have profit driven design and manufacturing. Add to that the fact that we’ve got all these economic problems, NATO is falling apart because the EU is declining, and looking at a grim economic future, and the Neocons and globalists have totally screwed us all, and yet there is all this hubris and phony narratives pointing out other nations problems… Narratives don’t make reality.
Freudian.
Have you by any chance ‘flagged’ your previous response to my querying of your remark “ The Chinese are adept at exploiting the chinks in the West’s armour”.
You may recall I asked whether that was jocular remark or a Freudian slip? You replied “freudian”.
Which is all rather sad as for a moment I thought I had detected a sense of humour.
ps. Yesterday, based on a remark you made some weeks ago,I alluded to the fact that your father had commanded a British battalion in Korea. Why did you NOT correct me?
If your late father’s dates are 1926-2011, then surely he is the Carnegie who was the 26 year old machine-gun officer of the KSLI in 1951, n’est pas?
Did I flag my own comment? No. Actually I suspect “unconscious” would be a more accurate description; I have always suspected Freud talked mostly nonsense. As for the accusation that I possess a sense of humour – simply outrageous.
Are you BOTH Rupert and Alex Carnegie?
How bizarre!
So who is Jekyll and who is Hyde?
ps. Did you forget the word NO in your last?
Vagaries of UnHerd software. No? No.
Hence today’s punitive censorship no doubt!
I take it you it are the offspring of the gallant machine-gun Officer of the KSLI*.
If so he went on command the QOH** in Aden did he not?
(*King’s Shropshire Light Infantry.)
(** Queen’s Own Hussars, otherwise affectionately know as the Queers on Horseback.)
Correct.
I see one of you or perhaps someone else has removed much of yesterday’s amicable little chat about Amritsar.
Quite extraordinary as I think you may agree.
Charles, I never know how much of what you say is just for provocation and how much is sincere. Either way, I would not be surprised if UnHerd has decided to remove your attempts to bully and belittle someone. It went beyond the normal limits of acceptable robust debate IMO. If you feel the need to insult people why not just go to Twitter? It is considered normal there. UnHerd has so far managed to keep the debate on its site remarkably civil and constructive. Many of your contributions are genuinely interesting so why dilute their impact with intermittent ill mannered abuse? Incidentally, I did not flag any of it myself but, as I made clear and I am sure you realised, I felt you went considerably too far – even if you felt you were just provoking debate.
Thanks for the suggestion but unfortunately I am based mainly in the Scottish Highlands these days. The reason I have only been a regular UnHerd commenter for the last four months is that was when broadband finally reached here – and I finally joined the twenty first century twenty three years after everyone else!
I may be wrong but I suspect that some of your amiable badinage is not received in quite the spirit you anticipate. If you have a convenient grandchild or equivalent at hand perhaps you should get them to read the Amritsar section and see what they think. You may be startled.
Have a good time tomorrow hearing about the First Indian War of Independence as I believe it now called!
Haha, Bravo! consider yourself told of Charles! (I suspect Charles is an under achiever, n’est pas?
Glad you have returned to the arena Valentine. I have missed your puerile socialist drivel. QED?
Glad you have returned to the arena Valentine. I have missed your puerile socialist drivel. QED?
Thanks for the suggestion but unfortunately I am based mainly in the Scottish Highlands these days. The reason I have only been a regular UnHerd commenter for the last four months is that was when broadband finally reached here – and I finally joined the twenty first century twenty three years after everyone else!
I may be wrong but I suspect that some of your amiable badinage is not received in quite the spirit you anticipate. If you have a convenient grandchild or equivalent at hand perhaps you should get them to read the Amritsar section and see what they think. You may be startled.
Have a good time tomorrow hearing about the First Indian War of Independence as I believe it now called!
Haha, Bravo! consider yourself told of Charles! (I suspect Charles is an under achiever, n’est pas?
Charles, I never know how much of what you say is just for provocation and how much is sincere. Either way, I would not be surprised if UnHerd has decided to remove your attempts to bully and belittle someone. It went beyond the normal limits of acceptable robust debate IMO. If you feel the need to insult people why not just go to Twitter? It is considered normal there. UnHerd has so far managed to keep the debate on its site remarkably civil and constructive. Many of your contributions are genuinely interesting so why dilute their impact with intermittent ill mannered abuse? Incidentally, I did not flag any of it myself but, as I made clear and I am sure you realised, I felt you went considerably too far – even if you felt you were just provoking debate.
I see one of you or perhaps someone else has removed much of yesterday’s amicable little chat about Amritsar.
Quite extraordinary as I think you may agree.
Correct.
If I may say so it is almost unparalleled for a Scotsman to pay twice.
Maybe less ethnic slurs?
Are you both that thin skinned?
That is NOT an ethic slur but a well earned characteristic is it not?
Are you both that thin skinned?
That is NOT an ethic slur but a well earned characteristic is it not?
Maybe less ethnic slurs?
Hence today’s punitive censorship no doubt!
I take it you it are the offspring of the gallant machine-gun Officer of the KSLI*.
If so he went on command the QOH** in Aden did he not?
(*King’s Shropshire Light Infantry.)
(** Queen’s Own Hussars, otherwise affectionately know as the Queers on Horseback.)
If I may say so it is almost unparalleled for a Scotsman to pay twice.
Vagaries of UnHerd software. No? No.
Are you BOTH Rupert and Alex Carnegie?
How bizarre!
So who is Jekyll and who is Hyde?
ps. Did you forget the word NO in your last?
Did I flag my own comment? No. Actually I suspect “unconscious” would be a more accurate description; I have always suspected Freud talked mostly nonsense. As for the accusation that I possess a sense of humour – simply outrageous.
Very debatable.
You make many good points, but the flaw in your argument is that the US is not the UK. The UK was a relatively small nation that controlled a huge and far-flung global empire. The US is a huge country that never occupied as much foreign territory and still doesn’t. A significant portion of American economic strength comes from land and resources even today. Like Russia, America is largely food and energy independent. To use a sports analogy, America has a much higher floor than the UK. They are guaranteed a certain amount of economic power by just being big and resource rich. Also, the devil is in the details. The largest share of the US national debt is held not by foreign nations, but by the US government. It’s debatable how much of the national debt is meaningful and what it means. Of the top ten foreign holders, only China, Brazil, and Switzerland are not already part of the transatlantic alliance (China being 2nd and Brazil 10th). China’s 870 billion is less than the amount held by state and local governments, 1.4 trillion. Again, the comparison is a poor one. Further, China’s strategy certainly is to neutralize the Pacific fleet with cheap missiles, but plans often fail once shots are actually fired. The US military knows what the Chinese are doing and are adjusting their tactics and strategy. In war nothing is certain. I also question the wisdom of Chinese leadership which you assert. Prior to 2012, it is hard to argue the effectiveness of Chinese economic and political policy. Over the years from 1980 to 2012, Chinese leadership presided over a massive economic boom and maintained friendly relations with most of the world which allowed them to avoid international conflicts and take full advantage of the global economy. Since Xi Jinping came to power, however, China has alienated the US and much of Europe with its treatment of native Uyghur and Tibetan cultures, antagonized its most powerful neighbor, India, killing Indian soldiers over a strategically meaningless border dispute, turned public opinion in Taiwan firmly against them by cracking down on free expression in Hong Kong and using constant military posturing rather than diplomacy and economic integration to pursue reunification, antagonized everyone in the region by trying to claim the entire South China Sea and turn it into a Chinese lake, entered into a quasi-alliance with the highly unstable Putin regime in Russia, failed to contain COVID or properly warn the world about it until it was too late to prevent a global pandemic, and continued their zero COVID policy even after it was clearly having a crippling effect on the economy. This is not a record for any leader to brag about.
I accept many of your points and, in any case, no historical analogy is perfect.
In particular, I agree that Xi made a series of unforced errors after 2012 through a mixture of hubris about China and an exaggerated disdain for America’s supposed degeneration after the 2008 crisis. It is interesting to compare Xi’s attitude and rhetoric c.2010 with those of Kaiser Wilhelm c.1910 about Britain. On the other hand, Xi appears to have been chastened by events and he – or his successor – may now play a cannier game. As you say, prior to 2012 China played its hand very skilfully.
I suppose my bottom line is that, if I was betting on who will “win” this Cold War, I would see the odds as still 60-40 in favour of the Americans but equally no more than that. I think the US / West needs to raise its game considerably starting with a recognition that the result is not a foregone conclusion. The difficulties China will experience over the next three years should be seen as opportunity to get our act together not relax. (By America “winning” I mean China accepting its place as one of the top 5 powers – who hope to act collectively – rather than aiming to replace the US as the new hegemon of a unipolar world).
On the specific financial issue, there are indeed some differences with the UK precedent but basically I still see the US as very exposed to the threat posed by de dollarisation. It is one of its weak points. The Chinese have spotted it.
I’d say we’re not as far apart as I thought. If we limit ourselves to the outcome of a single cold war with a primarily economic focus, I’d say your 60-40 odds are fairly close to what I myself would guess. I might actually give BRICS a better shot than that. I’d also define winning and losing differently. If the American hegemony is a problem, replacing it with an alternative solves nothing. As much as I distrust my own government, it’s still better than Chinese Orwellian totalitarianism or Russian strongman rule. Fortunately, history is seldom so neat and tidy that we get discrete binary results. De-dollarisation must eventually happen I believe. I would hope to replace it not with a new global currency backed by a new hegemon or hegemonic alliance, but rather a more capitalistic, competition based system which sees many currencies traded and valid internationally, or even a return to the gold standard or some other more real measure of value that acts as a check on financial chicanery. Either way, I hope for a more egalitarian, multilateral system. Hopefully, BRICS is just one step toward that process, and the end result leaves more power in the hands of elected national governments who can choose who to do business with in what currency strategically according to national interest and the public will rather than being locked into a single system where an unelected, unaccountable clique of global financiers runs everything on the back of the American military and for the benefit of the American aristocracy. Most of our problems are the result of trying to fit everybody in the world, nations, cultures, religions, and people into a single, Americanized system. It should be clear to everybody at this point that this hasn’t worked and isn’t working. We’re all better served to move on. In short, globalism needs to die for the world to move forward and if BRICS accomplishes that without violence, I’ll accept the cost. If BRICS remains an economics focused group, I think it is mostly a good thing for most people. My fears center around bad actors like Xi and Putin who may attempt to politicize and militarize the alliance. I don’t want to end up in WW3 against a new triple axis of China/Iran/Russia. No sane person should. I hope you’re correct and Xi moderates his course, but the best indicator of future behavior is past behavior, and I have seen little indication the man will change his methods.
I’d say we’re not as far apart as I thought. If we limit ourselves to the outcome of a single cold war with a primarily economic focus, I’d say your 60-40 odds are fairly close to what I myself would guess. I might actually give BRICS a better shot than that. I’d also define winning and losing differently. If the American hegemony is a problem, replacing it with an alternative solves nothing. As much as I distrust my own government, it’s still better than Chinese Orwellian totalitarianism or Russian strongman rule. Fortunately, history is seldom so neat and tidy that we get discrete binary results. De-dollarisation must eventually happen I believe. I would hope to replace it not with a new global currency backed by a new hegemon or hegemonic alliance, but rather a more capitalistic, competition based system which sees many currencies traded and valid internationally, or even a return to the gold standard or some other more real measure of value that acts as a check on financial chicanery. Either way, I hope for a more egalitarian, multilateral system. Hopefully, BRICS is just one step toward that process, and the end result leaves more power in the hands of elected national governments who can choose who to do business with in what currency strategically according to national interest and the public will rather than being locked into a single system where an unelected, unaccountable clique of global financiers runs everything on the back of the American military and for the benefit of the American aristocracy. Most of our problems are the result of trying to fit everybody in the world, nations, cultures, religions, and people into a single, Americanized system. It should be clear to everybody at this point that this hasn’t worked and isn’t working. We’re all better served to move on. In short, globalism needs to die for the world to move forward and if BRICS accomplishes that without violence, I’ll accept the cost. If BRICS remains an economics focused group, I think it is mostly a good thing for most people. My fears center around bad actors like Xi and Putin who may attempt to politicize and militarize the alliance. I don’t want to end up in WW3 against a new triple axis of China/Iran/Russia. No sane person should. I hope you’re correct and Xi moderates his course, but the best indicator of future behavior is past behavior, and I have seen little indication the man will change his methods.
I accept many of your points and, in any case, no historical analogy is perfect.
In particular, I agree that Xi made a series of unforced errors after 2012 through a mixture of hubris about China and an exaggerated disdain for America’s supposed degeneration after the 2008 crisis. It is interesting to compare Xi’s attitude and rhetoric c.2010 with those of Kaiser Wilhelm c.1910 about Britain. On the other hand, Xi appears to have been chastened by events and he – or his successor – may now play a cannier game. As you say, prior to 2012 China played its hand very skilfully.
I suppose my bottom line is that, if I was betting on who will “win” this Cold War, I would see the odds as still 60-40 in favour of the Americans but equally no more than that. I think the US / West needs to raise its game considerably starting with a recognition that the result is not a foregone conclusion. The difficulties China will experience over the next three years should be seen as opportunity to get our act together not relax. (By America “winning” I mean China accepting its place as one of the top 5 powers – who hope to act collectively – rather than aiming to replace the US as the new hegemon of a unipolar world).
On the specific financial issue, there are indeed some differences with the UK precedent but basically I still see the US as very exposed to the threat posed by de dollarisation. It is one of its weak points. The Chinese have spotted it.
How do you know the Chinese missiles have neutralised the US Pacific fleet ? That proposition has never been tested. Conjecture, not fact.
China has far bigger problems than the USA. Their debt problems are an order of magnitude worse than those of the US. As is their housing market bubble. All against a backdrop of demographic decline and failling competiveness. We’ll look back in 10 years time and realise that “peak China” was already behind us in 2023.
Another delusional article full of wishful thinking, but with no basis in reality.
Freudian.
Have you by any chance ‘flagged’ your previous response to my querying of your remark “ The Chinese are adept at exploiting the chinks in the West’s armour”.
You may recall I asked whether that was jocular remark or a Freudian slip? You replied “freudian”.
Which is all rather sad as for a moment I thought I had detected a sense of humour.
ps. Yesterday, based on a remark you made some weeks ago,I alluded to the fact that your father had commanded a British battalion in Korea. Why did you NOT correct me?
If your late father’s dates are 1926-2011, then surely he is the Carnegie who was the 26 year old machine-gun officer of the KSLI in 1951, n’est pas?
Very debatable.
You make many good points, but the flaw in your argument is that the US is not the UK. The UK was a relatively small nation that controlled a huge and far-flung global empire. The US is a huge country that never occupied as much foreign territory and still doesn’t. A significant portion of American economic strength comes from land and resources even today. Like Russia, America is largely food and energy independent. To use a sports analogy, America has a much higher floor than the UK. They are guaranteed a certain amount of economic power by just being big and resource rich. Also, the devil is in the details. The largest share of the US national debt is held not by foreign nations, but by the US government. It’s debatable how much of the national debt is meaningful and what it means. Of the top ten foreign holders, only China, Brazil, and Switzerland are not already part of the transatlantic alliance (China being 2nd and Brazil 10th). China’s 870 billion is less than the amount held by state and local governments, 1.4 trillion. Again, the comparison is a poor one. Further, China’s strategy certainly is to neutralize the Pacific fleet with cheap missiles, but plans often fail once shots are actually fired. The US military knows what the Chinese are doing and are adjusting their tactics and strategy. In war nothing is certain. I also question the wisdom of Chinese leadership which you assert. Prior to 2012, it is hard to argue the effectiveness of Chinese economic and political policy. Over the years from 1980 to 2012, Chinese leadership presided over a massive economic boom and maintained friendly relations with most of the world which allowed them to avoid international conflicts and take full advantage of the global economy. Since Xi Jinping came to power, however, China has alienated the US and much of Europe with its treatment of native Uyghur and Tibetan cultures, antagonized its most powerful neighbor, India, killing Indian soldiers over a strategically meaningless border dispute, turned public opinion in Taiwan firmly against them by cracking down on free expression in Hong Kong and using constant military posturing rather than diplomacy and economic integration to pursue reunification, antagonized everyone in the region by trying to claim the entire South China Sea and turn it into a Chinese lake, entered into a quasi-alliance with the highly unstable Putin regime in Russia, failed to contain COVID or properly warn the world about it until it was too late to prevent a global pandemic, and continued their zero COVID policy even after it was clearly having a crippling effect on the economy. This is not a record for any leader to brag about.
I doubt if more than a tiny fraction of the ‘global population’ wears Western luxury brands, sends their children to Western schools and universities, prefers Western sons and daughters in law and maintains savings in dollars and euros in Western banks in Western countries.
The elite of the developing nations certainly do though. I don’t see them sending their children to school in Moscow or Cape Town
The invariably corrupt elite do, yes. They use the West to stash and enjoy their ill gotten gains. The vast majority of the global population can very clearly see this.
And yet it never changes.
One thing to recognise something. Quite another to actually do something to change or improve it.
Few institutionally corrupt countries are rich.
Is that why we (UK) are getting poorer? 50% of ministers during May and Johnsons government have taken jobs in the industries they were overseeing! The west is in decline, a stark reality for our grand children to observe first hand…
Nonsense!
You should have bought some of England when, and if you had the chance.
My great children will be awash with largesse all thanks to not having to pay any IHT.
Nonsense!
You should have bought some of England when, and if you had the chance.
My great children will be awash with largesse all thanks to not having to pay any IHT.
Is that why we (UK) are getting poorer? 50% of ministers during May and Johnsons government have taken jobs in the industries they were overseeing! The west is in decline, a stark reality for our grand children to observe first hand…
And yet it never changes.
One thing to recognise something. Quite another to actually do something to change or improve it.
Few institutionally corrupt countries are rich.
The invariably corrupt elite do, yes. They use the West to stash and enjoy their ill gotten gains. The vast majority of the global population can very clearly see this.
The elite of the developing nations certainly do though. I don’t see them sending their children to school in Moscow or Cape Town
Indeed. Mr Afwerki cannot be unaware that very few of his escaping countrymen are trying to get into Russia or China.
It is precisely this arrogant attitude that makes other nations dislike us, you don’t even acknowledge the colonialism and bullying that the USA inflicts on other countries, including the us (the west). (But hey we are richer than them, so it’s ok is it?) Trite comment.
“Vae Victis!”
When you speak with the voice of authority it is unnecessary to be liked. You are extraordinary naive Valentine old thing.
“Vae Victis!”
When you speak with the voice of authority it is unnecessary to be liked. You are extraordinary naive Valentine old thing.
The neocons are sabotaging Western soft power. They have a decade of failure behind them, destabilising Libya and Iraq further, falling short on Syria, abandoning Afghanistan and do nothing about the horrific war in the Yemen.
The pointlessly brutal conflict in the Ukraine is just the cherry on the cake. It feels like Washington is setting a test of allegiance to the European powers but the eastern expansion of NATO has only brought a more expansion family of nations together – and they are significantly more important economic actions than Poland, Georgia and the Baltic nations.
I think you are entirely right about the West’s strengths in culture and soft power but that, on the other hand, it has an Achilles’ heel in terms of finances – and especially in the use of the dollar as a reserve currency. I think we should see the BRICS threat more in that context.
For comparison, the downfall of the British was as much about declining financial strength as anything else. Having built up an enormous pool of investments by 1914 in America, Argentina, India, etc etc it had to sell half to finance WW1 and the rest for WW2. By 1945 it was running on IOUs of which one form was the continued willingness of many countries to hold their reserves as Sterling at the Bank of England. The history of 1945 to 1975 was largely a matter of these IOUs coming due and the British trying to cut their colonies, overseas garrisons and other commitments to economise – and simultaneously becoming subservient to their largest creditor, America.
Today America is basically where Britain was then. The only difference is that they have dissipated their foreign investments and accumulated IOUs to finance a credit driven boom rather than two world wars.
The Chinese are adept at exploiting the chinks in the West’s armour and usually astute enough to avoid challenging it where it is robust. On a military level, they developed relatively cheap long range missiles which have neutralised the US Pacific fleet. Now they are using the BRICS to hit America where it will hurt financially – by pushing the de dollarisation of official reserves and oil.
The Chinese are playing a more crafty game in this new Cold War than the Russians did in the old one – or Putin has recently. Maybe Go produces subtler strategists than Chess or Poker.
I doubt if more than a tiny fraction of the ‘global population’ wears Western luxury brands, sends their children to Western schools and universities, prefers Western sons and daughters in law and maintains savings in dollars and euros in Western banks in Western countries.
Indeed. Mr Afwerki cannot be unaware that very few of his escaping countrymen are trying to get into Russia or China.
It is precisely this arrogant attitude that makes other nations dislike us, you don’t even acknowledge the colonialism and bullying that the USA inflicts on other countries, including the us (the west). (But hey we are richer than them, so it’s ok is it?) Trite comment.
The neocons are sabotaging Western soft power. They have a decade of failure behind them, destabilising Libya and Iraq further, falling short on Syria, abandoning Afghanistan and do nothing about the horrific war in the Yemen.
The pointlessly brutal conflict in the Ukraine is just the cherry on the cake. It feels like Washington is setting a test of allegiance to the European powers but the eastern expansion of NATO has only brought a more expansion family of nations together – and they are significantly more important economic actions than Poland, Georgia and the Baltic nations.
A very interesting article on a rather consequential development.
However, Westen soft power is still too strong for Brics or Brics plus or Brics Alpha to have much long term staying power.
As long as the global population consumes Hollywood and Westen media, wears Westen luxury brands and accessories, aspires to western luxury vehicles, reads western content, sends their children to western schools, colleges and universities, prefers western sons and daughters in law, maintains savings in dollars, euros and pounds in western banks in western countries, this new bloc won’t amount to much.
Till rich Emirati men are vacationing in Shanghai and Russian oligarchs are rocking up in Mumbai with their fortunes the G7 will remain paramount.
The US is only strong if it can continue to ignore the deficit. “cracks have started to appear in the petrodollar system” Saudi used to recycle Petro-Dollars back into the US in the form of deposits and purchases of US Treasuries thus Financing the massive US deficit. The US has further costly burdens imposed on it by Leftist ideologies to include; Climate Change, the war on Fossil Fuels, Open Borders, WOKEism, and the other Cultural Marxist attacks on our culture. Throw in the regime change Neo-Cons and you have an America poised for rapid decline.
The US is only strong if it can continue to ignore the deficit. “cracks have started to appear in the petrodollar system” Saudi used to recycle Petro-Dollars back into the US in the form of deposits and purchases of US Treasuries thus Financing the massive US deficit. The US has further costly burdens imposed on it by Leftist ideologies to include; Climate Change, the war on Fossil Fuels, Open Borders, WOKEism, and the other Cultural Marxist attacks on our culture. Throw in the regime change Neo-Cons and you have an America poised for rapid decline.
Blasphemer!
Hasn’t India just landed a ‘dustbin’ on the Moon?*
(*Do ‘we’ still give Foreign Aid to India does anyone happen to know?)
£2.3billion between 2016 and 2021 sayshttps://m.timesofindia.com/world/uk/uk-still-gives-aid-to-india-dressed-up-as-business-investments-rather-than-direct-handouts-britain-watchdog/amp_articleshow/98641083.cms
Thank you so much, just as I feared.
You have to see this ‘aid’ to India as another term for ‘guilt’.
We still give aid to China.
Guilt for what? ‘India’ only exists as a country thanks to Britain.
Well said that man!
If “India” exists only thanks to Britain, how did the British get to name their trading company the East “India” company, and who was Columbus looking for in 1492, a few centuries before Britain “created” India.
If anything, India as a cultural and political entity existed many centuries before Britain, France or Germany came into being.
Incidentally, while there were multiple dynasties that unified India politically – Mauryas, Guptas, Mughals – the British didn’t.
They left India with over 500 independent rulers and states. And it fell to Indians to cajole, threaten and barter with those rulers to unify India politically.
‘India’ is a foreign name for a geographic region not a country or a nation. Before British rule even the concept of South Asia being a single country did not exist among its people. Even now many Sikhs and most Kashmiris dispute it.
The Mauryas, Guptas and the Mughals did not rule the entire subcontinent. The rulers of the princely states weren’t independent of Britain.
Well, technically the name is Bharat. And yes, while it technically wasn’t a “nation” in the modern sense, it was culturally a unified area, much like China, Egypt or Persia.
Those disputing it do so based on religion – sikhs or muslims – whose presence in India is recent, barely a few centuries old. The only Kashmiris who want “independence” are muslims – who are converted from Hinduism, in a state that is a core part of Indian culture and named after a Hindu sage!
“The rulers of the princely states weren’t independent of Britain.”
Yes, sort of. But at independence, Sardar Patel still had a gargantuan task convincing them to be part of India, and it wasn’t a given that they would accept being part of India. So, contrary to what’s said, the British didn’t leave a unified Indian state, that was down to Indians
And the reason those princely states did agree, was to a large extent due to the cultural bonds they shared with the concept of Bharat or India.
The name ‘Bharat’ is not the historical name for South Asia. In fact an indigenous historical name for the subcontinent doesn’t exist, simply because among its indigenous people the very notion of the subcontinent being a single entity did not exist. That idea arose only during British rule among Hindu nationalists.
The princely states went with India because Britain had an irrational obsession with keeping its South Asian empire together after its departure and therefore it did not give most of the local princes an alternative option.
The name ‘Bharat’ is not the historical name for South Asia. In fact an indigenous historical name for the subcontinent doesn’t exist, simply because among its indigenous people the very notion of the subcontinent being a single entity did not exist. That idea arose only during British rule among Hindu nationalists.
The princely states went with India because Britain had an irrational obsession with keeping its South Asian empire together after its departure and therefore it did not give most of the local princes an alternative option.
Well, technically the name is Bharat. And yes, while it technically wasn’t a “nation” in the modern sense, it was culturally a unified area, much like China, Egypt or Persia.
Those disputing it do so based on religion – sikhs or muslims – whose presence in India is recent, barely a few centuries old. The only Kashmiris who want “independence” are muslims – who are converted from Hinduism, in a state that is a core part of Indian culture and named after a Hindu sage!
“The rulers of the princely states weren’t independent of Britain.”
Yes, sort of. But at independence, Sardar Patel still had a gargantuan task convincing them to be part of India, and it wasn’t a given that they would accept being part of India. So, contrary to what’s said, the British didn’t leave a unified Indian state, that was down to Indians
And the reason those princely states did agree, was to a large extent due to the cultural bonds they shared with the concept of Bharat or India.
Censored for mentioning the splendid, eponymous Bantam C**k!
How many Sc*tch Presbyterians are there in UnHerd?
And Jesus wept!
The original intention was to trade with the East Indies, todays Indonesia, and in fact the first ‘factory’ was established in Bantam*,Java in 1603. Unfortunately the Dutch had got there first in 1598 and effectively kicked us our after the Amboyna massacre of 1623, and so India was really the consolation prize!
Neither the Mauryan, Gupta or Mughal ‘empires’ were as extensive or long lived as the British.
Those 500 states as you well know were called the Native States and were completely under British control, even if some had a modicum of independence. If their rulers** misbehaved they were summarily removed.
The post 1947 Indian government annexed these states with some unfortunate consequences as well as ‘hoovering up’ Portugals tiny possessions at Goa and elsewhere in 1960.
(*Home of the superb eponymous fighting c**k, for those interested in such matters.
(** One had his groom douse his thoroughbred in petrol and incinerate him/her after it lost at Ascot or some other major English racecourse, I forget which. He was summarily dismissed.)
Well, those empires did in fact cover most of India. And lasted for 100-150 years, which incidentally was the length of British rule as well. It’s easy to forget that British India was a unified entity , or covered the bulk of India, for barely 130 years.
I would argue that while colonialism never works well for the recepients, the islamic colonialism of India was (though only partially covering India) much more long lasting, much more brutal and damaging.
I agree with your last point, in fact the evidence is overwhelming.
However “those empires did not cover MOST of India”, nor were they anything like as comprehensive as the British.
I date the start of the British to 1757 or do your prefer 1764?
Got to be ’57, The Year of Victories, the Annus Mirabilis.
Actually, and without wishing to sound pedantic, that was 1759, Quebec, Quiberon, Minden etc.
1757 was Plassey and Robert Clive.
Actually, and without wishing to sound pedantic, that was 1759, Quebec, Quiberon, Minden etc.
1757 was Plassey and Robert Clive.
Got to be ’57, The Year of Victories, the Annus Mirabilis.
I agree with your last point, in fact the evidence is overwhelming.
However “those empires did not cover MOST of India”, nor were they anything like as comprehensive as the British.
I date the start of the British to 1757 or do your prefer 1764?
Well, those empires did in fact cover most of India. And lasted for 100-150 years, which incidentally was the length of British rule as well. It’s easy to forget that British India was a unified entity , or covered the bulk of India, for barely 130 years.
I would argue that while colonialism never works well for the recepients, the islamic colonialism of India was (though only partially covering India) much more long lasting, much more brutal and damaging.
‘India’ is a foreign name for a geographic region not a country or a nation. Before British rule even the concept of South Asia being a single country did not exist among its people. Even now many Sikhs and most Kashmiris dispute it.
The Mauryas, Guptas and the Mughals did not rule the entire subcontinent. The rulers of the princely states weren’t independent of Britain.
Censored for mentioning the splendid, eponymous Bantam C**k!
How many Sc*tch Presbyterians are there in UnHerd?
And Jesus wept!
The original intention was to trade with the East Indies, todays Indonesia, and in fact the first ‘factory’ was established in Bantam*,Java in 1603. Unfortunately the Dutch had got there first in 1598 and effectively kicked us our after the Amboyna massacre of 1623, and so India was really the consolation prize!
Neither the Mauryan, Gupta or Mughal ‘empires’ were as extensive or long lived as the British.
Those 500 states as you well know were called the Native States and were completely under British control, even if some had a modicum of independence. If their rulers** misbehaved they were summarily removed.
The post 1947 Indian government annexed these states with some unfortunate consequences as well as ‘hoovering up’ Portugals tiny possessions at Goa and elsewhere in 1960.
(*Home of the superb eponymous fighting c**k, for those interested in such matters.
(** One had his groom douse his thoroughbred in petrol and incinerate him/her after it lost at Ascot or some other major English racecourse, I forget which. He was summarily dismissed.)
Well said that man!
If “India” exists only thanks to Britain, how did the British get to name their trading company the East “India” company, and who was Columbus looking for in 1492, a few centuries before Britain “created” India.
If anything, India as a cultural and political entity existed many centuries before Britain, France or Germany came into being.
Incidentally, while there were multiple dynasties that unified India politically – Mauryas, Guptas, Mughals – the British didn’t.
They left India with over 500 independent rulers and states. And it fell to Indians to cajole, threaten and barter with those rulers to unify India politically.
And unfortunately to Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Two more undeserving recipients would be hard to imagine.
Didn’t you forget somebody?
Not Wales surely?
Not Wales surely?
Didn’t you forget somebody?
No doubt following that logic we will soon have to ask the Italians, on behalf of the Ancient Romans, to apologise for crucifying Christ.
The secret of success today is to become a victim. If I have to become a Christian to get money from the Italians – no problemo.
Agreed!
Better still to be a descendant of the so called Amritsar massacre or something similar like Culloden.
Agreed!
Better still to be a descendant of the so called Amritsar massacre or something similar like Culloden.
Don’t forget the Norwegians, for all that much more recent raping and pillaging.
And their Danish brethren lead by the splendid Guthrum & Co.
And their Danish brethren lead by the splendid Guthrum & Co.
The secret of success today is to become a victim. If I have to become a Christian to get money from the Italians – no problemo.
Don’t forget the Norwegians, for all that much more recent raping and pillaging.
Guilt for what? ‘India’ only exists as a country thanks to Britain.
And unfortunately to Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Two more undeserving recipients would be hard to imagine.
No doubt following that logic we will soon have to ask the Italians, on behalf of the Ancient Romans, to apologise for crucifying Christ.
You have to see this ‘aid’ to India as another term for ‘guilt’.
We still give aid to China.
Samir Iker Esq of this forum seems to disagree.
Thank you so much, just as I feared.
Samir Iker Esq of this forum seems to disagree.
No, UK doesn’t.
It’s cash for buddies at “charities”, economic investments and funding for friendly “think tanks”.
There is zero tangible benefit to India, even if it was used to help Indians (it’s not) represents a minute fraction of India’s own budget…..and worst of all, the Indian government has spent more than a decade asking the so called “aid” to be stopped.
Incidentally, India isn’t even the biggest recepient or even close to it.
The main criteria for UK aid includes the following: completely corrupt, fundamentalist state which doesn’t care for its citizens, indulges in terrorist activities, hates the West.
Pakistan?
Well India itself satisfies the first 3 criteria. The PM is a Hindu extremist hand in glove with gangsters and drug lords.
That’s OK then. I thought for a minute you were going to say that he was not normal for a PM. Our PMs only seem to do little things like, er, invading Iraq.
Our PMs are no angels but they don’t, yet, organize pogroms against marginalised minorities or make ‘business’ deals with drug lords. Google ‘Manipur’ for some recent news.
Our PMs are no angels but they don’t, yet, organize pogroms against marginalised minorities or make ‘business’ deals with drug lords. Google ‘Manipur’ for some recent news.
OK I give up!
“PM is a Hindu extremist hand in glove with gangsters and drug lords.”
If that was true, muslims wouldn’t be 13% of the country, India wouldn’t have a dozen minority religions, India wouldn’t have a space program or other developments….
And Britain would be happy donating much more “aid” to India without complaint.
Modi inherited the ‘problem’ of a 13% Muslim minority and he’s doing his best to ‘solve’ it. India’s space programme precedes Modi and besides there’s nothing to say a fascist state can’t make technological progress. India is a great example of one.
Modi inherited the ‘problem’ of a 13% Muslim minority and he’s doing his best to ‘solve’ it. India’s space programme precedes Modi and besides there’s nothing to say a fascist state can’t make technological progress. India is a great example of one.
That’s OK then. I thought for a minute you were going to say that he was not normal for a PM. Our PMs only seem to do little things like, er, invading Iraq.
OK I give up!
“PM is a Hindu extremist hand in glove with gangsters and drug lords.”
If that was true, muslims wouldn’t be 13% of the country, India wouldn’t have a dozen minority religions, India wouldn’t have a space program or other developments….
And Britain would be happy donating much more “aid” to India without complaint.
£50 million a year to China. Surely also a candidate for the title of ‘West Hater’.
Look at the list of top ten recepients of UK aid.
It’s mind boggling.
Frankly, UK should cease all aid. All it does is fill the pockets of corrupt rulers, and nobody ever developed themselves with charity.
I see the state of our NHS, roads…..why is UK wasting billions on this false concept of aid? We need that money, it’s not as if UK is flush with money.
Have you seen the list of the world’s biggest recipients of aid? You’ll be in for a big shock when you see who tops the list.
I couldn’t agree more. “Charity begins at home” as we used to say.
Been saying that for years, Samir. Put £1B aside a year for emergency relief for earthquakes and famines in foreign lands and spend the rest at home.
Have you seen the list of the world’s biggest recipients of aid? You’ll be in for a big shock when you see who tops the list.
I couldn’t agree more. “Charity begins at home” as we used to say.
Been saying that for years, Samir. Put £1B aside a year for emergency relief for earthquakes and famines in foreign lands and spend the rest at home.
Well India itself satisfies the first 3 criteria. The PM is a Hindu extremist hand in glove with gangsters and drug lords.
£50 million a year to China. Surely also a candidate for the title of ‘West Hater’.
Look at the list of top ten recepients of UK aid.
It’s mind boggling.
Frankly, UK should cease all aid. All it does is fill the pockets of corrupt rulers, and nobody ever developed themselves with charity.
I see the state of our NHS, roads…..why is UK wasting billions on this false concept of aid? We need that money, it’s not as if UK is flush with money.
Pakistan?
We should give aid to India, we steal all their doctors and committed atrocities in their country. You are struggling to hide your true self Charles, not nice IMO…
Rubbish Valentine, if they can put a ‘dustbin’ on the Moon they don’t need our charity.
Do you know anything at all about India? I suspect not and that you are just another socialist parrot, is that not so?
Rubbish Valentine, if they can put a ‘dustbin’ on the Moon they don’t need our charity.
Do you know anything at all about India? I suspect not and that you are just another socialist parrot, is that not so?
£2.3billion between 2016 and 2021 sayshttps://m.timesofindia.com/world/uk/uk-still-gives-aid-to-india-dressed-up-as-business-investments-rather-than-direct-handouts-britain-watchdog/amp_articleshow/98641083.cms
No, UK doesn’t.
It’s cash for buddies at “charities”, economic investments and funding for friendly “think tanks”.
There is zero tangible benefit to India, even if it was used to help Indians (it’s not) represents a minute fraction of India’s own budget…..and worst of all, the Indian government has spent more than a decade asking the so called “aid” to be stopped.
Incidentally, India isn’t even the biggest recepient or even close to it.
The main criteria for UK aid includes the following: completely corrupt, fundamentalist state which doesn’t care for its citizens, indulges in terrorist activities, hates the West.
We should give aid to India, we steal all their doctors and committed atrocities in their country. You are struggling to hide your true self Charles, not nice IMO…
Blasphemer!
Hasn’t India just landed a ‘dustbin’ on the Moon?*
(*Do ‘we’ still give Foreign Aid to India does anyone happen to know?)
Like Rome, the US will fall. Just a matter of time.
Rome took a very long time to fall, primarily because there was no other power capable of pushing it aside
Calm down. History indicates future possibilities, not future certainties.
Rome took a very long time to fall, primarily because there was no other power capable of pushing it aside
Calm down. History indicates future possibilities, not future certainties.
Like Rome, the US will fall. Just a matter of time.
I would encourage readers to watch Peter Zeihan’s other side of the coin take on this issue. Much more coherent (Saudi, UAE, Iran and Egypt all have completely differing aspirations and competing interests in the region). Expansion does not mean strength (as the EU has found out) and what was already a talking shop will most likely turn into an arguing shop now that smaller countries with their own local grievances have become involved. The BRICS are currently not tied together by any formal treaties and pursue their own agendas. The presidency is meaningless when China is the tail wagging the dog. That the other BRIC countries can’t even help South Africa which is currently in crisis on almost every front (and not the manufactured “BBC” headline tag crisis of COL, War in Ukraine, Climate and Covid) shows the lack of real clout or ability of any of these nations to aspire to global leadership.
If you want to feel like you’re in the know, only in the long run none of the big picture works out the way it seems he is leading you with the things he has you focus on, then Peter Zeihan is a great person to listen to.
You don’t have to agree with everything he says to take some good points away. He is overly-wedded to demographics but then that is his field of expertise so it is fair that he comes at questions from that angle.
You don’t have to agree with everything he says to take some good points away. He is overly-wedded to demographics but then that is his field of expertise so it is fair that he comes at questions from that angle.
If you want to feel like you’re in the know, only in the long run none of the big picture works out the way it seems he is leading you with the things he has you focus on, then Peter Zeihan is a great person to listen to.
I would encourage readers to watch Peter Zeihan’s other side of the coin take on this issue. Much more coherent (Saudi, UAE, Iran and Egypt all have completely differing aspirations and competing interests in the region). Expansion does not mean strength (as the EU has found out) and what was already a talking shop will most likely turn into an arguing shop now that smaller countries with their own local grievances have become involved. The BRICS are currently not tied together by any formal treaties and pursue their own agendas. The presidency is meaningless when China is the tail wagging the dog. That the other BRIC countries can’t even help South Africa which is currently in crisis on almost every front (and not the manufactured “BBC” headline tag crisis of COL, War in Ukraine, Climate and Covid) shows the lack of real clout or ability of any of these nations to aspire to global leadership.
I’ve said this before in comments but if Russia and China continue to dominate the BRICS alliance and succeed in turning it into an explicitly anti-US, anti-western alliance, India is likely to eventually be forced out, drop out on its own, or reduce its participation to a formality. India’s consistent policy since the end of the Cold War has been to maintain neutrality in great power conflicts. This was easy when India was a third world nation that had just gained independence. It is harder now that India is an emerging great power. The success or failure of BRICS ultimately will come down to whether members are able to separate economics from geopolitics, and whether China and Russia truly can sustain a reliable alternative to the US banking system. As for the former, almost nobody other than Russia backs China’s claims over the South China Sea and many members and potential members have claims in that area. India and China are natural rivals in the region and likely to be competing for influence in the region as Asia replaces Europe as the center of global affairs. As for the latter, I actually think an alternative to the western banking system would be a good thing, because competition drives innovation and efficiency, while monopolies do not. A lot of us have been complaining for a while about being at the mercy of international finance and how Wall Street bankers wield more power than politicians. An alternative to Wall Street banks seems like a good thing on balance. If it succeeds, it will at the very least deal a serious blow, maybe a fatal blow, to the idea of American style globalism, and that’s something that has to happen sooner or later. Of course the mainstream media is panicking over this because their corporate overlords are probably doing the same. They are the ones who stand to lose most, losing power to manipulate the global economy as they wish and use money and services to pacify an increasingly hostile domestic body politic. I do remain skeptical, however, that the two lynch pin members, Russia and China, will be able to actually sustain a competitive banking system given Russia’s unrivaled level of corruption and China’s totalitarian tendency to try to dominate and control everything. The Saudis probably could if they were left alone to run it, but how likely is that? In the future, we may very well look at the expansion of BRICS as a turning point in history, or political problems may overtake economics and break up the group entirely or prevent it from ever amounting to much. The G7 could also counter by expanding offering membership to India, South Korea, Australia, Israel, Mexico, etc. The transatlantic alliance that has dominated the world since WWII, let’s not forget, was a political, military, and economic alliance, and remains so up to the present. Certainly there have been disagreements, and there certainly are problems. As Fazi correctly points out, the outsourcing of manufacturing to the third world for cheap labor was a shortsighted policy and now those chickens are coming home to roost, but politically, the alliance is fundamentally sound, with few sources of potential conflict, and BRICS is an entirely different sort of animal. Whether it can survive despite significant political rivalries among members remains to be seen.
I wonder if subconsciously we are all trying to force fit what is going on into a replay of the first Cold War with NATO lined up against the Warsaw Pact. Instead I suspect both America and China will be at the centre of a web of bilateral relationships each defined in a bespoke fashion i.e. more like the way America operated in the Middle East and NE Asia during the first Cold War than its arrangements in Europe.
I see BRICS as a positive move. It is protection for countries against the bullying and hegemony of US NeoCons and it blocks the WEF with the “you will own nothing and you WILL be happy” promise of World domination and slavery.
I am a patriotic American who served 22 years in the US Navy and four years as a civilian contractor in Iraq and Afghanistan., At age 78, I have come to realize that my country, the USA, is a major problem to peace and Democracy in the World. I think BRICS has positive possibilities to counter the NeoCons and Globalists.
I’ll believe in the economic and cultural power of the BRICS as soon as swarms of refugees from all over the world start risking their lives to break into Russia, China and Brazil.
I’ll believe in the economic and cultural power of the BRICS as soon as swarms of refugees from all over the world start risking their lives to break into Russia, China and Brazil.
It was all going so well.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/30/india-protest-china-map-line-actual-control-xi-jinping-modi/
They’ll be like rats in a sack.
It was all going so well.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/30/india-protest-china-map-line-actual-control-xi-jinping-modi/
They’ll be like rats in a sack.
“This, combined with the fact that any country that wants to buy oil has to purchase dollars to do so, has allowed the US to run a massive trade deficit for decades without seeing the dollar depreciate. It has been one of the keystones of America’s post-war global hegemony, allowing Washington to sustain a regime of perpetual war, on top of exercising financial dominance over much of the world.”
Can someone explain how this works?
I’ll try.
Americans rely on foreign imports, and to pay for them, they have to exchange their dollars into other currencies. So, if they want to import from Japan, they have to use dollars to buy Japanese yen first.
Because other countries need to exchange their currencies into dollars to buy oil, that means there is lots of demand for dollars. The more demand there is for dollars, the more each dollar is worth.
So, dollars are ‘artificially’ highly priced, meaning Americans get more yen for their dollar. So Americans get Japanese products and services at a ‘discount’.
Without petrodollar pressure on the price of the dollar, the dollar would be worth much less, and imports would cost Americans far more.
I hope this helps.
I’ll try.
Americans rely on foreign imports, and to pay for them, they have to exchange their dollars into other currencies. So, if they want to import from Japan, they have to use dollars to buy Japanese yen first.
Because other countries need to exchange their currencies into dollars to buy oil, that means there is lots of demand for dollars. The more demand there is for dollars, the more each dollar is worth.
So, dollars are ‘artificially’ highly priced, meaning Americans get more yen for their dollar. So Americans get Japanese products and services at a ‘discount’.
Without petrodollar pressure on the price of the dollar, the dollar would be worth much less, and imports would cost Americans far more.
I hope this helps.
“This, combined with the fact that any country that wants to buy oil has to purchase dollars to do so, has allowed the US to run a massive trade deficit for decades without seeing the dollar depreciate. It has been one of the keystones of America’s post-war global hegemony, allowing Washington to sustain a regime of perpetual war, on top of exercising financial dominance over much of the world.”
Can someone explain how this works?
Whatever BRICS Plus is or may become, with Russia, China and Iran as members it can never be called “nonaligned,” not with a straight face anyway.
Whatever BRICS Plus is or may become, with Russia, China and Iran as members it can never be called “nonaligned,” not with a straight face anyway.
The primary driver of the current expansion and cohesion of BRICS has been Mr Biden’s aggressive, unfriendly foreign policies. The use of Ukraine to fight the US’s war, the demonization of everything Russian, seizure of Russian private and state assets, private and state sanctions, weaponization of trade, expansion of NATO, AUKUS, the obvious potential similarity between Ukraine and Taiwan, have all made too many Nations look at the USA as a current or future enemy.
I really find it increasingly difficult to bear Thomas Fazi. Rather than speaking neutrally, he endlessly attacks the US and the West, while cheering on some of the most odious and repressive nations in the world, many of whom have absolutely nothing in common except a desire to crush any dissent at home, persecute huge minority populations and repressing any political or indeed religious pluralism of any sort. There aren’t many people queuing up to live in Russia or China.
Of course the relative balance of power is bound to shift from the West, and the US can’t continue to act as the world’s policeman, and has made many egregious errors. It hasn’t however imprisoned a million people of an ethnic minority population in concentration camps and decided on a political system of mass spying and social control of its entire population.
The US has undoubtedly made many foreign interventions in its back yard, though in the big picture it should be praised for rolling back murderous Communism, which would otherwise have dominated even more of the globe than it already did. But its behaviour towards its neighbours has improved a lot, if you think non intervention is the thing, while that of China has become very much worse: the militarisation of the South China Sea and the belligerent threats against Taiwan.
? If by far the greatest uplift of human welfare the world has ever known is a ‘malaise’, we shouldn’t be hasty about finding a cure.
If that’s a highlight of current BRICS+ geopolitical thought, hailing its rise is more than a touch premature.
? If by far the greatest uplift of human welfare the world has ever known is a ‘malaise’, we shouldn’t be hasty about finding a cure.
If that’s a highlight of current BRICS+ geopolitical thought, hailing its rise is more than a touch premature.
“the G7 countries as whole contribute to global manufacturing output roughly as much as China does on its own”
omitted, by the author:
if those self-reported numbers are to be believed
“the G7 countries as whole contribute to global manufacturing output roughly as much as China does on its own”
omitted, by the author:
if those self-reported numbers are to be believed
All basket case countries playing ‘Grown-ups’!
Egypt.. Argentina..South Africa and all the others, each in their own way too inept to develop past the ‘developing country’ stage – unless helped along by the ‘West’
‘It was forever thus”.
Or as Kipling put it so perfectly:-
Take up the White Man’s burden –
Send forth the best ye breed –
Go bind your sons to exile
To serve your captives’ need;
To wait in heavy harness
On fluttered folk and wild –
Your new-caught sullen peoples,
Half devil and half child.
Take up the White Man’s burden –
In patience to abide
To veil the threat of terror
And check the show of pride;
By open speech and simple,
An hundred times made plain,
To seek another’s profit,
And work another’s gain.
Take up the White Man’s burden –
The savage wars of peace –
Fill full the mouth of famine
And bid the sickness cease;
And when your goal is nearest
The end for others sought,
Watch Sloth and heathen Folly
Bring all your hopes to nought.
Take up the White Man’s burden –
No tawdry rule of kings,
But toil of serf and sweeper –
The tale of common things.
The ports ye shall not enter,
The roads ye shall not tread,
Go make them with your living,
And mark them with your dead !
Take up the White Man’s burden –
And reap his old reward,
The blame of those ye better,
The hate of those ye guard –
The cry of hosts ye humour
(Ah slowly !) towards the light:-
“Why brought ye us from bondage,
“Our loved Egyptian night ?”
Take up the White Man’s burden –
Ye dare not stoop to less –
Nor call too loud on Freedom
To cloak your weariness;
By all ye cry or whisper,
By all ye leave or do,
The silent sullen peoples
Shall weigh your Gods and you.
Take up the White Man’s burden –
Have done with childish days –
The lightly proffered laurel,
The easy, ungrudged praise.
Comes now, to search your manhood
Through all the thankless years,
Cold-edged with dear-bought wisdom,
The judgement of your peers.
‘It was forever thus”.
Or as Kipling put it so perfectly:-
Take up the White Man’s burden –
Send forth the best ye breed –
Go bind your sons to exile
To serve your captives’ need;
To wait in heavy harness
On fluttered folk and wild –
Your new-caught sullen peoples,
Half devil and half child.
Take up the White Man’s burden –
In patience to abide
To veil the threat of terror
And check the show of pride;
By open speech and simple,
An hundred times made plain,
To seek another’s profit,
And work another’s gain.
Take up the White Man’s burden –
The savage wars of peace –
Fill full the mouth of famine
And bid the sickness cease;
And when your goal is nearest
The end for others sought,
Watch Sloth and heathen Folly
Bring all your hopes to nought.
Take up the White Man’s burden –
No tawdry rule of kings,
But toil of serf and sweeper –
The tale of common things.
The ports ye shall not enter,
The roads ye shall not tread,
Go make them with your living,
And mark them with your dead !
Take up the White Man’s burden –
And reap his old reward,
The blame of those ye better,
The hate of those ye guard –
The cry of hosts ye humour
(Ah slowly !) towards the light:-
“Why brought ye us from bondage,
“Our loved Egyptian night ?”
Take up the White Man’s burden –
Ye dare not stoop to less –
Nor call too loud on Freedom
To cloak your weariness;
By all ye cry or whisper,
By all ye leave or do,
The silent sullen peoples
Shall weigh your Gods and you.
Take up the White Man’s burden –
Have done with childish days –
The lightly proffered laurel,
The easy, ungrudged praise.
Comes now, to search your manhood
Through all the thankless years,
Cold-edged with dear-bought wisdom,
The judgement of your peers.
All basket case countries playing ‘Grown-ups’!
Egypt.. Argentina..South Africa and all the others, each in their own way too inept to develop past the ‘developing country’ stage – unless helped along by the ‘West’
‘has become a full-blooded geopolitical actor that can longer be ignored.’
Typo or Freudian slip?
I’m not sure I can agree that the US-led order has deliberately set out to prevent progress in emerging markets. The last 30 years of free trade growth has lifted billions of people out of poverty and western policymakers – and most westerners in general – have seen this as a good idea.
Yes, it is of course true that America has dominated the post-1945 global settlement and arranged things as much in its own interests as it can, but that’s a privilege the world’s policeman has always taken, as the British Empire did before 1945. And it is also true that the USA has been guilty of overstepping even a reasonable boundary around that privilege at times. But the notion that a China-led bloc would not seek the same privilege is absurd – and it would be a good deal less civilised about it too, I’m guessing.
It is however good that India seems not to fit easily into the interests of such a power bloc. It means that the character of the multipolar global order that will take shape in the 21st century is not yet settled and need not necessarily continue the hegemonic tradition of superpowers past. It is also possible that the UK, as a small country that for some reason nevertheless seems to be extremely attractive to the rest of the world, might much better navigate this global order as a truly independent nation rather than as part of a system of bloc-oriented treaties that are outliving their relevance: the EU was an obvious example of a exit that was sorely overdue, but it is also arguable that NATO, too, either needs to be redefined or exited, as some opinion-formers are now arguing somewhat persuasively.
Anyway, this article was very interesting.
I’m not sure I can agree that the US-led order has deliberately set out to prevent progress in emerging markets. The last 30 years of free trade growth has lifted billions of people out of poverty and western policymakers – and most westerners in general – have seen this as a good idea.
Yes, it is of course true that America has dominated the post-1945 global settlement and arranged things as much in its own interests as it can, but that’s a privilege the world’s policeman has always taken, as the British Empire did before 1945. And it is also true that the USA has been guilty of overstepping even a reasonable boundary around that privilege at times. But the notion that a China-led bloc would not seek the same privilege is absurd – and it would be a good deal less civilised about it too, I’m guessing.
It is however good that India seems not to fit easily into the interests of such a power bloc. It means that the character of the multipolar global order that will take shape in the 21st century is not yet settled and need not necessarily continue the hegemonic tradition of superpowers past. It is also possible that the UK, as a small country that for some reason nevertheless seems to be extremely attractive to the rest of the world, might much better navigate this global order as a truly independent nation rather than as part of a system of bloc-oriented treaties that are outliving their relevance: the EU was an obvious example of a exit that was sorely overdue, but it is also arguable that NATO, too, either needs to be redefined or exited, as some opinion-formers are now arguing somewhat persuasively.
Anyway, this article was very interesting.
How do you torture? How do you mass monitor? How do you rig elections? The dialogue is endless!
The dollar has major attractions as a reserve currency: the US is happy for people to use dollars outside of the US and beyond the direct control of the Fed; and there are regulated, deep and transparent financial markets in which dollars can be invested. In contrast, the CCP is paranoid about allowing foreigners to hold and use yuan outside their sphere of control. Potential foreign investors in China are confronting by the salutary example of the Chinese themselves who are desperate to get their money out of China. Reports of the death of the dollar are premature.
India is losing ground to Russia and China
Meanwhile back in the real world, investment money is now flooding out of China, and into India, and Russia’s economy and standing in the World is rotting. I get the impression that Fazi’s journalistic MO is mere click-bait controversialism.
You are right.
The outlook for countries whose wealth is only oil is grim. Other countries will either need oil less and less or, if not, can still need other countries’ oil less and less.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, etc. look more like powers of the past than any other countries in the world, including the real powers of the past like Japan and Germany.
China might indeed be destined for great things, with or without its current leadership. The rest of them, particularly Africa, are as good as they’re going to get.
To me it just sounds like the usual large government propaganda. Get what you want and get somebody else to pay for it. Clearly it’s the un that should be concerned not the us.
The key factor is the development of markets in Asia, Africa and South America. China is the manufacturer but the West is still the consumer. Also what will hold BRICS together in hard times? US has its security umbrella which has saved Europe and Japan trillions. What can China/Russia/Brazil/India offer that can withstand political turbulence in the same way?
The key factor is the development of markets in Asia, Africa and South America. China is the manufacturer but the West is still the consumer. Also what will hold BRICS together in hard times? US has its security umbrella which has saved Europe and Japan trillions. What can China/Russia/Brazil/India offer that can withstand political turbulence in the same way?
I was going to say “Fazi tends to overestimate the decline of US imperialism”. Then I read the article.
PS I think US imperialism is a greater threat to human life than all the others put together.
If the BRICS were functioning democracies with baked-in social mobility for their middle classes and even an attempt at the rule of law, one would indeed have reason to worry. As things stand however, not really.
If that was the case, I’d be happy. Might even want to live in Russia or India. But as things stand..
If that was the case, I’d be happy. Might even want to live in Russia or India. But as things stand..
If the BRICS were functioning democracies with baked-in social mobility for their middle classes and even an attempt at the rule of law, one would indeed have reason to worry. As things stand however, not really.
Typically Fazi anti western stance. He doesn’t mention Chinas own problem with it’s belt and road show, or internal problems at the moment. Apart from The Gulf countries and India + China. The rest don’t have any economy to talk about. They are a lot of people but with stagnating GDP’s .
For the life of me I can’t figure out what these Bricks countries have to offer that would justify dominance of some sort of New World Order. SA is so corrupt they can’t keep the lights on, Russia is a terrorist state, China Maoist, Saudis publicly beat women who show their faces, etc. Innovation, human rights and rule of law remain the secure provenance of the Western states, despite all our caviling to the contrary, and all these dim disfunctional nations know it.
For the life of me I can’t figure out what these Bricks countries have to offer that would justify dominance of some sort of New World Order. SA is so corrupt they can’t keep the lights on, Russia is a terrorist state, China Maoist, Saudis publicly beat women who show their faces, etc. Innovation, human rights and rule of law remain the secure provenance of the Western states, despite all our caviling to the contrary, and all these dim disfunctional nations know it.
I can see an earlier avatar of Fazi, sipping on absinthe, and blathering on about the fall of World Capital, and Third World Revolution..
That this collection of disparate, dysfunctional nations can somehow get together over anything is laughable. One is engaged in a no-win war, two are engaged in ethnic cleansing of their own population. Now they want to strengthen it by adding still more diverse ethnic cleansers, to included…Ethiopia.
Ruble back up to 96, and heading for 100 to the dollar.
The EU/US Capitalists/Nazi/Jew/Fascists are trembling with fear at the BRICS rise…