Will a liberal coalition defeat the ANC? Emmanuel Croset/AFP/Getty Images.
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Olive Schreiner, the South African author of The Story of an African Farm, surveyed her Edwardian society as an impoverished exile in London in a letter to a lifelong friend, John X Merriman. “A dead pall rests over the whole life of the people,” she despaired. “A passion for dress, luxury and gain is eating up the middle classes”; the whole press is in the hands of the capitalists “because they represent the spirit of the nation”; the working classes and democratic movements are “dead or at least torpid” and a “lifeless striving for gain for themselves has taken its place”.
Schreiner’s words would strike her countryfolk today with stark resonance. The white middle classes, confined to their urban or coastal bubble communities, have largely given up — those who can leave often do. The black middle class are hardly different: revolutionaries have become businessmen and sometimes not very honest ones. “I did not join the struggle to die poor,” proclaimed one senior ruling African National Congress (ANC) politician endlessly mired in sleaze allegations. The unions, meanwhile, are corrupted by greed and the “democratic movements” — a few courageous exceptions allowed — are knee-deep in self-enrichment.
It is now clear that whatever force drives public policy within the opaque and factional halls of the ruling party — which is certainly not the impressionable President Cyril Ramaphosa, who drifts like kelp in the coastal currents of the Western Cape seas — has come to three dreadful conclusions. Firstly, the ANC will stick to its catastrophic redistributive economic policies rather than pursuing growth. Secondly, knowing that its economic plan will cause chaos, the government will batten the hatches against capital flight and pre-emptively seek to chill free speech. And thirdly, it has accepted that what is left of developed world investment interest will dry up and a flailing South African state will have to find succor elsewhere. Enter the Russians and the Chinese.
Let’s start with the ANC’s disastrous economic policy. The recently passed National Health Insurance Act seeks to impose a complex and unaffordable R256 billion (£11 billion) national health insurance system on a state which has utterly failed in key governance functions for nearly 30 years due to epic corruption and maladministration. This has been most prominent in healthcare, where criminal cartels have operated with impunity for decades in securing tenders and, in one recent case, assassinated a whistleblower. The new measures, meanwhile, threaten to displace the extensive and highly successful private healthcare system on which the middle classes and many formally employed workers depend, black and white.
Other draft regulations, this time by the Department of Labour, allow the government to set employment targets for every business to reflect the precise demographic profile of the country, both an absurdity and an impossibility given the uneven spread of skills and demography. On top of this, draft regulations by the Department of Water and Sanitation require businesses and farmers applying for water rights permits to prove that between 25% and 75% of their businesses are black-owned: the equivalent of asking multi-generational Devon farming families to cede chunks of the value of their farms to Tory cronies for the future right to draw water from the Tamar.
And this comes on the back of a failed land restitution programme, which has seen a catastrophic decline in productivity and employment in the millions of hectares handed to new crony or communal ownership. Millions of other hectares, 2.8 million in KwaZulu Natal province alone, remain under communal tenure systems dating to Victorian times. The ANC is too afraid of a rural insurgency to touch the power of the traditional leaders who have the right to rule over this land: the whites are an easier target.
All of these measures will certainly be fought tooth-and-nail up to the Constitutional Court, and may well be defeated: the Court, some brave opposition politicians, and a small band of intrepid and independent investigative journalists remain the only deterrents to South Africa becoming a badge-bearing failed African state. But in the interim, the proposals are creating enormous uncertainty.
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SubscribeI think, what is becoming abundantly clear, is that European ‘civilisation’ is not random chance, and that it didn’t come without sacrifice, hard work, and a fair bit of luck. It didn’t ‘just’ happen, by accidental and, given a bit of lipstick (You can give a pig lipstick, but it’s still a pig), or the facets of Western European institutions doesn’t necessarily, and the odds are probably not good, turn a country into that European success story. European success is not a veneer, it is more than a bunch of institutions, or laws, it is a journey that has been traveled (somewhat erratically) over a couple of thousand years. It can’t just be ‘smeared’ ‘liberally’ hoping that it will hide the ‘sometimes’ savage teeth and claws of the places it imposes itself upon, whatever the intentions.
I’m not saying that European culture and civilisation is perfect, or that it can’t take lessons from elsewhere, far from it, but, possibly, in much the same way we look back on the Roman or Ancient Greek worlds, our descendants might also muse, in centuries to come, at our hubris, and complacency at what we had.
European civilisation has certainly been an unimaginable force for good in recent centuries (though from the viewpoint of most of the remaining world, until a few decades back, the positive impact of European science was more than offset by the negative impact of colonialism – both European and “other”, though the latter is not politically correct to mention).
And there were certain unique aspects driving it – the concepts of law, rationality, scientific approach, merit.
it is genuinely a pity, and a serious negative for humanity, that Europe is turning it’s back on those founding principles.
However, I would suggest the impact is going to be less severe now, because those concepts have become much more broadly accepted and disseminated.
What is probably forgotten that European “civilisation” has lagged behind Asian cultures (China, India, Persia) for pretty much all of history except for the last few centuries. In medicine, astronomy, maths, philosophy, mechanical inventions. Regions like South Africa, despite the desperate attempts by Wakandists, never amounted to much. But China and increasingly India are going to pick up on terms of contributions to science and human progress.
And you already see that here in Western countries already, if you go to a STEM or medicine class, and observe the ethnic mix.
The one thing that I think would be lost, and is unique to western countries, is a culture of risk taking, humour and irreverence towards authority. That is a big part of Western “civilisation” and not as easily replicated.
I agree with a lot of this, but irreverence towards (ludicrous) authority in the West? This doesn’t seem to be true to any great extent any longer. Look how quickly people rolled over during lockdowns. At least there was significant push back in South Africa.
“Only 12.3% of South Africans pay income tax, and this figure is diminishing. Meanwhile 47% of all South Africans draw state grants, rising to 62% of the black population, and this is growing. Unemployment is at an all-time high of 32.9%.”
The odd thing about this information is that if one believes it describes a completely untenable situation, or is a sign of failed government, you must be racist. Therefore, what other than war is the answer to purge ourselves from this insanity?
There’s a lot of evidence that China is going to destroy itself, due to an irresponsible attitude to technology.
Not to mention a looming demographic catastrophe. Now that couples can have more than one child, they don’t want too. Urban living is too expensive, and the future too grim, in a 1984-esque techno-surveillance state.
There are systemic issues in China, but at least they are building a strong country in terms of infrastructure and scientific progress. And of course they steal a lot of technology, but the basic scientific potential of their population, both in terms of average IQ and number of people, is undeniable and unmatched.
Pity though they aren’t a democracy. Would mean a better and more secure planet in every way possible.
Why do you think China would be significantly different if it were a democracy?
Why do you think China would be significantly different if it were a democracy?
Not to mention a looming demographic catastrophe. Now that couples can have more than one child, they don’t want too. Urban living is too expensive, and the future too grim, in a 1984-esque techno-surveillance state.
There are systemic issues in China, but at least they are building a strong country in terms of infrastructure and scientific progress. And of course they steal a lot of technology, but the basic scientific potential of their population, both in terms of average IQ and number of people, is undeniable and unmatched.
Pity though they aren’t a democracy. Would mean a better and more secure planet in every way possible.
Name some major advances that have benefitted the entire world, and that haven’t just relied on cheap labour, that have originated in either China or India in the last 500 years?
I agree with a lot of this, but irreverence towards (ludicrous) authority in the West? This doesn’t seem to be true to any great extent any longer. Look how quickly people rolled over during lockdowns. At least there was significant push back in South Africa.
“Only 12.3% of South Africans pay income tax, and this figure is diminishing. Meanwhile 47% of all South Africans draw state grants, rising to 62% of the black population, and this is growing. Unemployment is at an all-time high of 32.9%.”
The odd thing about this information is that if one believes it describes a completely untenable situation, or is a sign of failed government, you must be racist. Therefore, what other than war is the answer to purge ourselves from this insanity?
There’s a lot of evidence that China is going to destroy itself, due to an irresponsible attitude to technology.
Name some major advances that have benefitted the entire world, and that haven’t just relied on cheap labour, that have originated in either China or India in the last 500 years?
Singapore has done a very good job of imitating the best aspects of European civilisation without the bad parts. And that’s with a multiracial population which usually means things don’t go well. It shows what can be achieved with the right attitude.
Right but it’s a short-lived country of 5 million people living in an effective one-party government. If you flush a country with Capital and contain dissidents you can do great things…temporarily.
Right but it’s a short-lived country of 5 million people living in an effective one-party government. If you flush a country with Capital and contain dissidents you can do great things…temporarily.
European civilisation has certainly been an unimaginable force for good in recent centuries (though from the viewpoint of most of the remaining world, until a few decades back, the positive impact of European science was more than offset by the negative impact of colonialism – both European and “other”, though the latter is not politically correct to mention).
And there were certain unique aspects driving it – the concepts of law, rationality, scientific approach, merit.
it is genuinely a pity, and a serious negative for humanity, that Europe is turning it’s back on those founding principles.
However, I would suggest the impact is going to be less severe now, because those concepts have become much more broadly accepted and disseminated.
What is probably forgotten that European “civilisation” has lagged behind Asian cultures (China, India, Persia) for pretty much all of history except for the last few centuries. In medicine, astronomy, maths, philosophy, mechanical inventions. Regions like South Africa, despite the desperate attempts by Wakandists, never amounted to much. But China and increasingly India are going to pick up on terms of contributions to science and human progress.
And you already see that here in Western countries already, if you go to a STEM or medicine class, and observe the ethnic mix.
The one thing that I think would be lost, and is unique to western countries, is a culture of risk taking, humour and irreverence towards authority. That is a big part of Western “civilisation” and not as easily replicated.
Singapore has done a very good job of imitating the best aspects of European civilisation without the bad parts. And that’s with a multiracial population which usually means things don’t go well. It shows what can be achieved with the right attitude.
I think, what is becoming abundantly clear, is that European ‘civilisation’ is not random chance, and that it didn’t come without sacrifice, hard work, and a fair bit of luck. It didn’t ‘just’ happen, by accidental and, given a bit of lipstick (You can give a pig lipstick, but it’s still a pig), or the facets of Western European institutions doesn’t necessarily, and the odds are probably not good, turn a country into that European success story. European success is not a veneer, it is more than a bunch of institutions, or laws, it is a journey that has been traveled (somewhat erratically) over a couple of thousand years. It can’t just be ‘smeared’ ‘liberally’ hoping that it will hide the ‘sometimes’ savage teeth and claws of the places it imposes itself upon, whatever the intentions.
I’m not saying that European culture and civilisation is perfect, or that it can’t take lessons from elsewhere, far from it, but, possibly, in much the same way we look back on the Roman or Ancient Greek worlds, our descendants might also muse, in centuries to come, at our hubris, and complacency at what we had.
“certainly not the impressionable President Cyril Ramaphosa, who drifts like kelp in the coastal currents of the Western Cape seas”
Amidst a pretty grim piece of reading, that is a lovely turn of phrase.
True. You instantly picture it in your mind’s eye: the epitome of a good metaphor. One that seems equally applicable to PMs Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson, unfortunately.
True. You instantly picture it in your mind’s eye: the epitome of a good metaphor. One that seems equally applicable to PMs Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson, unfortunately.
“certainly not the impressionable President Cyril Ramaphosa, who drifts like kelp in the coastal currents of the Western Cape seas”
Amidst a pretty grim piece of reading, that is a lovely turn of phrase.
This line from fourth to last paragraph:
…this seems to be (only slightly out of context) a fair summing up of black-dominated governance throughout Africa and beyond. Our ever-virtuous advocates of equity should be careful what they wish for.
This line from fourth to last paragraph:
…this seems to be (only slightly out of context) a fair summing up of black-dominated governance throughout Africa and beyond. Our ever-virtuous advocates of equity should be careful what they wish for.
Well surprise, surprise!
I seem to recall that when the BBC’s Fergal Keane( aka ‘the voice of misery’ *) was covering the Independence celebrations with his saccharine commentary, many in my Club said it would “end in tears” and so it has proved!
Four centuries of ‘white’ progress all but destroyed in a mere thirty years, and for what?
(* Closely rivalled by Ms Orla Guerin it must be said.)
Keane is sub pond life
Keane is sub pond life
Well surprise, surprise!
I seem to recall that when the BBC’s Fergal Keane( aka ‘the voice of misery’ *) was covering the Independence celebrations with his saccharine commentary, many in my Club said it would “end in tears” and so it has proved!
Four centuries of ‘white’ progress all but destroyed in a mere thirty years, and for what?
(* Closely rivalled by Ms Orla Guerin it must be said.)
Oooh… I thought that South Africa was a booming democracy, and like the rest of Africa in the forefront of industrialpower, culture, learning, academe, medical science, finance, manufacturing, and criss crossed by state of the art trains and roads? Surely it is racist not to believe this?
Oooh… I thought that South Africa was a booming democracy, and like the rest of Africa in the forefront of industrialpower, culture, learning, academe, medical science, finance, manufacturing, and criss crossed by state of the art trains and roads? Surely it is racist not to believe this?
“Firstly, the ANC will stick to its catastrophic redistributive economic policies rather than pursuing growth.”
Well they were originally communists, sponsored by the USSR when it existed.
Any European heritage South Africans should leave (even if their ancestors went there in the 1600s), as it’s difficult to see them being anything other than scapegoats and targets when SA implodes.
Go where? The US southern border?
Perhaps Panama?
My cousin is going there… I will take my chances here rather than going to Panama. It is all a balance of age and money. It is too easy to say just leave.
Further, the chance of the new ‘health’ initiative actually coming to pass is considered unlikely. This is major posturing before a general election and they have to jump through hoops to get this passed. As for expediting – they have zero chance. If this comes to fruition it is time to drink the kool-aid.
Texas?
A couple of my friends left S A a few years ago and headed for Australia! A big mistake as it turned out….….far, far too WOKE!
So now they are safely ensconced in Texas, USA.
I do want the ocean…. And I’m not sure the US would want me anyway.
NZ – the only sensible choice….
NZ – the only sensible choice….
Texas isn’t assured. Cities are all blue.
I do want the ocean…. And I’m not sure the US would want me anyway.
Texas isn’t assured. Cities are all blue.
Texas?
A couple of my friends left S A a few years ago and headed for Australia! A big mistake as it turned out….….far, far too WOKE!
So now they are safely ensconced in Texas, USA.
My cousin is going there… I will take my chances here rather than going to Panama. It is all a balance of age and money. It is too easy to say just leave.
Further, the chance of the new ‘health’ initiative actually coming to pass is considered unlikely. This is major posturing before a general election and they have to jump through hoops to get this passed. As for expediting – they have zero chance. If this comes to fruition it is time to drink the kool-aid.
A lot have already left to go Australia and the UK – doubtless also the US. If we are still to have any choice in who we allow into this country, I’d put these people pretty high up the list – generally hard-working, honest, no nonsense types not afraid to have to start again in a new country and not expecting handouts.
You have to have claim to ancestry, or have loads or cash. Easier to bob in on a boat.
You have to have claim to ancestry, or have loads or cash. Easier to bob in on a boat.
Latin America, or anywhere that places a value on honest, solid, skilled, hardworking citizens.
Perhaps Panama?
A lot have already left to go Australia and the UK – doubtless also the US. If we are still to have any choice in who we allow into this country, I’d put these people pretty high up the list – generally hard-working, honest, no nonsense types not afraid to have to start again in a new country and not expecting handouts.
Latin America, or anywhere that places a value on honest, solid, skilled, hardworking citizens.
In general it is only the young who leave when their future looks grim. The old lack the energy to start anew, and have financial ties (or handcuffs) to their current circumstances. Once established, the young may reach back and gather in older family members.
It is a crime that these people are not given priority status as refugees. They should be at the front of any immigration queue.
Go where? The US southern border?
In general it is only the young who leave when their future looks grim. The old lack the energy to start anew, and have financial ties (or handcuffs) to their current circumstances. Once established, the young may reach back and gather in older family members.
It is a crime that these people are not given priority status as refugees. They should be at the front of any immigration queue.
“Firstly, the ANC will stick to its catastrophic redistributive economic policies rather than pursuing growth.”
Well they were originally communists, sponsored by the USSR when it existed.
Any European heritage South Africans should leave (even if their ancestors went there in the 1600s), as it’s difficult to see them being anything other than scapegoats and targets when SA implodes.
Most of this piece is depressingly true, but I will add the caveat that the USA, for example, is no longer a shining example of a democracy with fabulous human rights. It is all theatre.
Not what we once were, but still a damn sight better that 95% of countries.
Not what we once were, but still a damn sight better that 95% of countries.
Most of this piece is depressingly true, but I will add the caveat that the USA, for example, is no longer a shining example of a democracy with fabulous human rights. It is all theatre.
As we are, they once were. As they are, we will be.
Momento mori.
Momento mori.
As we are, they once were. As they are, we will be.
Jeez, it’s a comprehensive economic and social catastrophe. Like the country formerly known as Great Britain, but slightly worse.
Well what did people expect the result of ending white rule to be? It’s not as if 30 years of post-colonial sub-Saharan Africa hadn’t provided the template, 20 or 30 times over.
Jeez, it’s a comprehensive economic and social catastrophe. Like the country formerly known as Great Britain, but slightly worse.
Well what did people expect the result of ending white rule to be? It’s not as if 30 years of post-colonial sub-Saharan Africa hadn’t provided the template, 20 or 30 times over.
Is there any way to determine if the average black South African was happier, healthier, more satisfied with life, under apartheid or under the ANC?
About 15 yrs ago whilst on hols in SA I bought a local paper up in Camps Bay that had done a poll that said 45% of black people thought they were better off under apartheid. An appalling indightment of the illiterate and incompetent ANC. All decent people in SA should rally round the genuine liberal anti corruption parties and vote them in. Inter-alia, there should be integrated schooling and housing and no more reference to “black” “white” “coloured” people. Just humans , working hard to get a potentially fantastic country out of the ANC gutter.
ha ha! Serves them right!
ha ha! Serves them right!
He was certainly safer from crime under Apartheid, in the round, and better fed and housed.
About 15 yrs ago whilst on hols in SA I bought a local paper up in Camps Bay that had done a poll that said 45% of black people thought they were better off under apartheid. An appalling indightment of the illiterate and incompetent ANC. All decent people in SA should rally round the genuine liberal anti corruption parties and vote them in. Inter-alia, there should be integrated schooling and housing and no more reference to “black” “white” “coloured” people. Just humans , working hard to get a potentially fantastic country out of the ANC gutter.
He was certainly safer from crime under Apartheid, in the round, and better fed and housed.
Is there any way to determine if the average black South African was happier, healthier, more satisfied with life, under apartheid or under the ANC?
Excellent article.
Excellent article.
There have been a few articles at Unherd about South Africa, and they all amount to the same thing: South Africans will soon pine for the luxury of Zimbabwe.
There have been a few articles at Unherd about South Africa, and they all amount to the same thing: South Africans will soon pine for the luxury of Zimbabwe.
Yet another well thought out article that demonstrates that the zenith of African history was the period of European colonialism. The question is how many of these do we need to read before we realize that, with open borders, we are looking into our own future. Oh, and btw, that guy in the photo is probably singing their de-facto national anthem “Kill the White Farmer” which was just recently ruled NOT to be hate speech. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6NJitdq8Bk
Yet another well thought out article that demonstrates that the zenith of African history was the period of European colonialism. The question is how many of these do we need to read before we realize that, with open borders, we are looking into our own future. Oh, and btw, that guy in the photo is probably singing their de-facto national anthem “Kill the White Farmer” which was just recently ruled NOT to be hate speech. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6NJitdq8Bk
The ‘colonialism = BAD!’ line of argument is shallow and of no value to discussion (as distinct from political debate). In the modern context its orientation is anti-European and therefore racist. What about the earlier colonisation of southern Africa by Bantu people out of the Congo basin during the centuries before European colonisation commenced? These Bantu colonisers displaced and wiped out the indigenous Khoi San bushman peoples who’d populated the land from time immemorial (and whose remnants lead a harsh existence in the Kalahari desert where nobody else wished to settle). At least the Khoi San peoples left behind a visual record of their lives in their former savannah homelands in the form of exquisite rock art.
The ‘colonialism = BAD!’ line of argument is shallow and of no value to discussion (as distinct from political debate). In the modern context its orientation is anti-European and therefore racist. What about the earlier colonisation of southern Africa by Bantu people out of the Congo basin during the centuries before European colonisation commenced? These Bantu colonisers displaced and wiped out the indigenous Khoi San bushman peoples who’d populated the land from time immemorial (and whose remnants lead a harsh existence in the Kalahari desert where nobody else wished to settle). At least the Khoi San peoples left behind a visual record of their lives in their former savannah homelands in the form of exquisite rock art.
A great reflection, difficult times ahead for South Africa…
A great reflection, difficult times ahead for South Africa…
Shebeen = pub according to google. I think we may see a color revolution sponsored by the CIA if the elections don’t go the way the U.S. wants.
Or ‘The Eagle and Child’ perhaps?
Perhaps but we are stretched thin with our own upheavals. We are imploding.
Or ‘The Eagle and Child’ perhaps?
Perhaps but we are stretched thin with our own upheavals. We are imploding.
Shebeen = pub according to google. I think we may see a color revolution sponsored by the CIA if the elections don’t go the way the U.S. wants.