Protesters stand in front of Russian peacekeepers on the road outside Stepanakert, capital of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, on December 24, 2022. - Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on December 23, 2022 called for de-escalation in Azerbaijan's Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh, a region which has sparked two wars between the Caucasus neighbours. (Photo by Davit GHAHRAMANYAN / AFP) (Photo by DAVIT GHAHRAMANYAN/AFP via Getty Images)
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Europe’s web of alliances has always been almost incomprehensibly tangled. This is one of the reasons we still disagree so vehemently about the causes of the First World War: the assassination of Franz Ferdinand lit a fuse woven from a million threads. It is one of the reasons, too, why the Western media is paying little attention to a confrontation currently brewing in the south Caucasus. Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Armenia, and perhaps even Israel are all teetering on the edge of a devastating conflict — one that could send shockwaves across the rest of Eurasia.
Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan have been rising since the start of the year. In March, the latter became the first country with a Shiite Muslim majority to open an embassy in Israel. Iran, having the largest Shiite majority of any nation, and being Israel’s historic geopolitical nemesis, did not approve. Nor did it approve, in 2020, when Israeli-made Harop drones proved crucial in helping drive the Azerbaijani military towards victory over Armenia in the shockingly underreported Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. Ties between Israel and Azerbaijan have grown increasingly close, and with Russia — traditionally the dominant regional power in the Caucasus — distracted by its engagement in Ukraine, Tehran fears that the balance of power is shifting in favour of Iran’s enemies.
Specifically, the Iranians are concerned that Azerbaijan might allow the Israeli military to use its territory as a launch pad — just as America feared Russia’s use of Cuba in the Cold War. The Azeris ruled out the possibility in March. But this has done little to calm tensions. Since January, a series of confrontations has driven relations between Iran and Azerbaijan to an all-time low that some fear could place them on the path to war.
Fazil Mustafa is a member of Azerbaijan’s parliament, and one of the nation’s most outspoken critics of Iran. The day before his nation opened its new Tel Aviv embassy, he was shot in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. Mustafa survived the assassination attempt, which the country’s foreign ministry appeared to blame on Tehran. Following his discharge from hospital, he emailed me to say there should be little doubt as to who orchestrated the attack against him. “All the suspicion and evidence obtained points directly to Iran,” wrote Mustafa, “because it doesn’t seem likely that such an act could have been committed against me from another source.”
It is difficult to independently verify these claims, which Iran denies. But, if true, it would be the second time this year that the country has attacked an Azerbaijani political target. In a separate incident, on January 27, a gunman stormed the country’s embassy in the Iranian capital, killing its head of security and wounding two others. Baku quickly suspended its diplomatic mission in Tehran and recalled its staff, although its consulates in other Iranian cities remained open. Azerbaijan’s President, Ilham Aliyev, has since blamed the Iranian government for the embassy attack. Tehran claims that the gunman was driven by “personal motivations”.
A long history of enmity lies behind this tense relationship between the two nations. Although they both have predominantly Shiite populations, the Azeris are a Turkic people and Azerbaijan’s ethnic ties to Turkey have underpinned its foreign policy ever since it regained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. The Republic of Azerbaijan’s founding president, Heydar Aliyev (father of the current leader), has previously described Azerbaijan and Turkey as “one nation, two states”. This irritates the Iranians, as Tehran sees Ankara as a regional rival.
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SubscribeInteresting article.
If only there were actually “good guys” to support here though. The implicatation that Azerbaijan are the good guys and Armenia the bad guys (I accept it’s not stated and the author may not believe this) doesn’t stand much scrutiny. Azerbaijan looks very much like another Saudi Arabia. It’s a pseudo-democracy with a corrupt family at the top.
I don’t think the West had got its hands dirty in the Caucasus before and I don’t see any good reason to start now. It’s a region that makes Afghanistan seem simple by comparison.
Interesting also to note that “blowback” risk for Iran here. At some point the Iranian regime will collapse.
No good guys but one extraordinarily bad guy. Iran’s government and the way it uses Shi’ite fundamentalism to spread its influence is the part of this that makes it more than just a normal tangled mess that could lead to a normal tangled war. Some of the people who rule Iran actually want to bring about the end of the world. I can’t quite cope with the idea of a nuclear suicide bomber. They cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons.
“If only there were actually “good guys” to support here though.” And that is exactly where we in the West make a pig’s ear of our foreign policy. Please don’t take it personally, Peter. It’s exactly the prism our media and governments use to view the rest of the world. The diplomats who run the Foreign Office and State Department sigh with despair.
So we incentivise participants in conflicts around the world to look like the ‘good guy’. It degenerates into an exercise of good PR. President Kagame of Rwanda, for example, excels at it.
Instead, we need to ask, where do our interests lie? If we had asked that twenty years ago, we might have left Iraq and Afghanistan alone.
Great point about gameable PR competition. In a UK context, I am reminded of the much applauded Ethical Foreign Policy stance being proposed by the late Labour minister Robin Cook back in the 90s. All that heady third way way moralisation. Get ready for another dose of destructive idealism, with long term profoundly ugly consequences.
Great point about gameable PR competition. In a UK context, I am reminded of the much applauded Ethical Foreign Policy stance being proposed by the late Labour minister Robin Cook back in the 90s. All that heady third way way moralisation. Get ready for another dose of destructive idealism, with long term profoundly ugly consequences.
No good guys but one extraordinarily bad guy. Iran’s government and the way it uses Shi’ite fundamentalism to spread its influence is the part of this that makes it more than just a normal tangled mess that could lead to a normal tangled war. Some of the people who rule Iran actually want to bring about the end of the world. I can’t quite cope with the idea of a nuclear suicide bomber. They cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons.
“If only there were actually “good guys” to support here though.” And that is exactly where we in the West make a pig’s ear of our foreign policy. Please don’t take it personally, Peter. It’s exactly the prism our media and governments use to view the rest of the world. The diplomats who run the Foreign Office and State Department sigh with despair.
So we incentivise participants in conflicts around the world to look like the ‘good guy’. It degenerates into an exercise of good PR. President Kagame of Rwanda, for example, excels at it.
Instead, we need to ask, where do our interests lie? If we had asked that twenty years ago, we might have left Iraq and Afghanistan alone.
Interesting article.
If only there were actually “good guys” to support here though. The implicatation that Azerbaijan are the good guys and Armenia the bad guys (I accept it’s not stated and the author may not believe this) doesn’t stand much scrutiny. Azerbaijan looks very much like another Saudi Arabia. It’s a pseudo-democracy with a corrupt family at the top.
I don’t think the West had got its hands dirty in the Caucasus before and I don’t see any good reason to start now. It’s a region that makes Afghanistan seem simple by comparison.
Interesting also to note that “blowback” risk for Iran here. At some point the Iranian regime will collapse.
Does the author expect us to sympathise with Aliyev’s regime? I know that technically speaking Nagorno-Karabakh is theirs, but given their treatment of Armenian POWs I’m perfectly happy to let the Armenians and their proxies keep occupying it. And if they need the Sepah e Pasdaran to help hold on, so be it. It’s a better outcome than genocide.
Indeed – not to mention the blockade of what remains of Nagorno-Karabakh by government backed Azeri “environmentalists” since December, which has deprived 120,000 people of basic food, medical and other supplies and has already caused deaths through premature births, lack of crucial medicines, malnutrition etc. Western governments have condemned this war crime but can’t possible impose sanctions on their supplier of black gold.
Indeed – not to mention the blockade of what remains of Nagorno-Karabakh by government backed Azeri “environmentalists” since December, which has deprived 120,000 people of basic food, medical and other supplies and has already caused deaths through premature births, lack of crucial medicines, malnutrition etc. Western governments have condemned this war crime but can’t possible impose sanctions on their supplier of black gold.
Does the author expect us to sympathise with Aliyev’s regime? I know that technically speaking Nagorno-Karabakh is theirs, but given their treatment of Armenian POWs I’m perfectly happy to let the Armenians and their proxies keep occupying it. And if they need the Sepah e Pasdaran to help hold on, so be it. It’s a better outcome than genocide.
Judging by the state of the world’s politics and economies, looking back to 1929 on we’re moving closer to a world war merely from history’s tendency to repeat itself. We haven’t learned anything and the powers that be are desperate to stop spinning plates and write off all the trillions of printed debt.
“Israel, as a responsible actor that often operates…….”
This line really made me LOL
“Israel, as a responsible actor that often operates…….”
This line really made me LOL
What a weird article.
”Doran is particularly scathing of America’s failures to support the Azeris against Tehran: “This administration in Washington is not viewing Azerbaijan as a counter-balance to Iran,” he says. “That’s because it isn’t looking to counter Iran in any significant way, which is unfortunate.” America has not learned any lessons from Syria, where its failure to properly commit to intervention left the door open for Russia to step in and help Bashar al-Assad cling onto power.”
Right… the Hudson Institute……haha…..so Doran says”America has not learned any lessons from Syria”
WTF, we all know that – and for the Opposite reason than Doran says – Talk about ‘Deep Rogue State’ Think Tanks… these guys are up to No Good.
If we had learned a lesson in Syria it would have been to NEVER do stupid shi* like Iraq again – but here is the great Satan Biden and his mini-me Boris destroying Ukraine…..Evil F* cks.
So Iran backs the Christian Orthodox Armenia wile the Muslim Azeris are in with the Jewish Israel, haha…… But then the Azeries are pretty secular Muslims after the Russian occupation (which if we had just let Afghanistan remain under the Russians they would have come out of it 1000X better than what we did to them with 40 years of war and Rad-Fem NGOs teaching them their twisted shi * and running our policy there, haha, madness)
Anyway – this is all Biden’s Fault again – by tieing Russia up in Ukraine they are not able to hold the Azeri in check (Orthodox to Orthodox in support of Armenia) – and kind of for Azerbaijan too…And yes – big pipelines run through Turkey from Baku – as a kind of tripwire – but not one really anyone wants to set off…
Biden is out to Destroy America, and as far as I can tell (Colonel Macgregor tells some tales), destroy the West. He is stirring stuff up in Sudan, The Horn, China, Caucuses, East Europe, Ukraine, Russia, Taiwan, Iran, KSA, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Mexico and Central America and the USA border – and Toronto to New York to Seattle to LA…Then he is running wild with the USA Dollar on like 30 levels………………….
This is just one guy – Biden has almost all the world de-stabalized! haha, he is Satan I think……..
Buy gold and silver. Fill big jars with rice and oxygen removers to store, because coming on all this is the beginning of the loss of 80% of jobs to AI beginning with Chat GPT5 – and by 2030 things look like they may be getting odd…..
Barking. Positively barking.
So America is at fault for getting involved and giving Ukraine the means to defend itself, and simultaneously at fault for not getting involved between the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia? It’s to blame for Putin deciding to bomb civilian tower blocks in Kyiv, and also to blame for Tehran trying to pick a fight with its neighbour?
Is there any recent world event you don’t blame the Americans for?
Barking. Positively barking.
So America is at fault for getting involved and giving Ukraine the means to defend itself, and simultaneously at fault for not getting involved between the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia? It’s to blame for Putin deciding to bomb civilian tower blocks in Kyiv, and also to blame for Tehran trying to pick a fight with its neighbour?
Is there any recent world event you don’t blame the Americans for?
What a weird article.
”Doran is particularly scathing of America’s failures to support the Azeris against Tehran: “This administration in Washington is not viewing Azerbaijan as a counter-balance to Iran,” he says. “That’s because it isn’t looking to counter Iran in any significant way, which is unfortunate.” America has not learned any lessons from Syria, where its failure to properly commit to intervention left the door open for Russia to step in and help Bashar al-Assad cling onto power.”
Right… the Hudson Institute……haha…..so Doran says”America has not learned any lessons from Syria”
WTF, we all know that – and for the Opposite reason than Doran says – Talk about ‘Deep Rogue State’ Think Tanks… these guys are up to No Good.
If we had learned a lesson in Syria it would have been to NEVER do stupid shi* like Iraq again – but here is the great Satan Biden and his mini-me Boris destroying Ukraine…..Evil F* cks.
So Iran backs the Christian Orthodox Armenia wile the Muslim Azeris are in with the Jewish Israel, haha…… But then the Azeries are pretty secular Muslims after the Russian occupation (which if we had just let Afghanistan remain under the Russians they would have come out of it 1000X better than what we did to them with 40 years of war and Rad-Fem NGOs teaching them their twisted shi * and running our policy there, haha, madness)
Anyway – this is all Biden’s Fault again – by tieing Russia up in Ukraine they are not able to hold the Azeri in check (Orthodox to Orthodox in support of Armenia) – and kind of for Azerbaijan too…And yes – big pipelines run through Turkey from Baku – as a kind of tripwire – but not one really anyone wants to set off…
Biden is out to Destroy America, and as far as I can tell (Colonel Macgregor tells some tales), destroy the West. He is stirring stuff up in Sudan, The Horn, China, Caucuses, East Europe, Ukraine, Russia, Taiwan, Iran, KSA, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Mexico and Central America and the USA border – and Toronto to New York to Seattle to LA…Then he is running wild with the USA Dollar on like 30 levels………………….
This is just one guy – Biden has almost all the world de-stabalized! haha, he is Satan I think……..
Buy gold and silver. Fill big jars with rice and oxygen removers to store, because coming on all this is the beginning of the loss of 80% of jobs to AI beginning with Chat GPT5 – and by 2030 things look like they may be getting odd…..
It sort of annoys me that the author says ‘utilise’. It’s ‘utilizze’ if you please!
You yanks really do need to stop putting Z’s where S’s belong in words. And while you’re at it stop being lazy and cutting out half the letters in doughnut
And when they add Zs they are zees not zeds. Illiterate.
And when they add Zs they are zees not zeds. Illiterate.
You yanks really do need to stop putting Z’s where S’s belong in words. And while you’re at it stop being lazy and cutting out half the letters in doughnut
It sort of annoys me that the author says ‘utilise’. It’s ‘utilizze’ if you please!