A protest organised by the Sor Party (Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
![](https://unherd.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/author30aug-100x100.jpg)
It might be hard to believe that a country like Moldova would be able to stand up to the might of Putin’s Russia. A nation of 2.6 million people, Moldova relies on Ukraine and Russian-controlled territories for 90% of its energy, making it vulnerable to Russian aggression. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to be stationed on Moldovan territory in the internationally unrecognised breakaway republic of Transnistria, which has operated independently from Moldova since 1992.
This winter, a combination of power cuts in energy-starved Ukraine, power shortages in Transnistria, and politically-motivated pressure from Russian gas giant Gazprom plunged Moldova into an energy crisis. Gas and energy prices skyrocketed as inflation soared, sparking widespread frustration over the cost of living. Ever since, the country has been in the throes of anti-government protests, which have been exacerbated by Moscow’s attempts to undermine Moldova’s pro-European Union, Western-aligned government.
And yet, Moldova is holding on. Russia is doing all it can to halt its Westward drift, but Moldova has so far managed to stay one step ahead of Russia’s powerful influence operation. In the same way that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine showed the world the limits of Moscow’s military power, his pressure campaign against Moldova may well show us the limits of Russian hybrid warfare in the 21st century.
Last month, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov made a thinly veiled threat against Moldova, saying it could soon become the “next Ukraine”. Russia’s ambitions in Moldova have been clear from the start of the war in Ukraine, when Russia’s plan was to march its troops northward from Crimea through Kherson and Mykolaiv toward Odesa, and then onward to the borders of Transnistria to incorporate Moldova’s breakaway territory into its newly-conquered lands.
Clearly, this plan failed: Ukrainian forces instead pushed Russian troops back across the Dnipro River where they remain to this day. Meanwhile, Russia’s force in Transnistria numbers a mere 1,500 soldiers, too few to mount any kind of offensive against the Moldovan state, especially since reinforcing them would require flying over Nato or Ukrainian-controlled airspace. As a result, Russia is out of military options in Moldova and has resorted to a more covert but far less effective plan B: waging an information war and financing saboteurs to take down the state from the inside. While this approach is certainly menacing, it reeks of impotence. Unfortunately for Putin, the Moldovan government has so far proven to be highly competent in dealing with his threats.
Like Ukraine before it, Moldova had its own Maidan moment in 2020 when pro-EU candidate Maia Sandu was elected president, replacing pro-Russian leader Igor Dodon. Although much less dramatic than former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych’s ousting in 2014, Sandu’s election was no less significant. In snap elections in 2021, her party swept into power, and in 2022, shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moldova was granted candidate status to join the EU. In November, Sandu’s government took one step further toward European integration by securing a $250 million aid package from the EU aimed at helping the country mitigate its energy woes, demonstrating that it may one day be able to manage without Russia.
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeWhat bright hopes Putin had at the beginning of his SVO!
Doubtless he thought he might ultimately reach Bulgaria and Romania, at the very least forcing them to be neutral. Instead, his antics have just put Moldova on alert for any coup. Now he will be lucky to hang on to Kaliningrad and St Petersburg.
In Donbas, he’s attacking and wasting his poorly trained soldiers, instead of waiting (as Surovikin advised) to first defeat and then counterattack a weakened Ukraine.
Putin will always be Ukraine’s greatest friend.
Last I heard from your side, “Putin” (funny how it’s so easy to vent bigotry and hatred for Russia by invoking his name) had to settle for Soledar because he had given up hope of capturing Bakhmut after “wasting his poorly trained soldiers”.
Funny how that turned out, eh?
Half a year wasted for a small town is no Operation Bagration
Yeah, he still hasn’t taken Bakhmut.
And three Ukrainian corps are preparing to attack a depleted and demoralized Russian force.
Funny…
Half a year wasted for a small town is no Operation Bagration
Yeah, he still hasn’t taken Bakhmut.
And three Ukrainian corps are preparing to attack a depleted and demoralized Russian force.
Funny…
Last I heard from your side, “Putin” (funny how it’s so easy to vent bigotry and hatred for Russia by invoking his name) had to settle for Soledar because he had given up hope of capturing Bakhmut after “wasting his poorly trained soldiers”.
Funny how that turned out, eh?
What bright hopes Putin had at the beginning of his SVO!
Doubtless he thought he might ultimately reach Bulgaria and Romania, at the very least forcing them to be neutral. Instead, his antics have just put Moldova on alert for any coup. Now he will be lucky to hang on to Kaliningrad and St Petersburg.
In Donbas, he’s attacking and wasting his poorly trained soldiers, instead of waiting (as Surovikin advised) to first defeat and then counterattack a weakened Ukraine.
Putin will always be Ukraine’s greatest friend.
“internationally unrecognised breakaway republic of Transnistria, which has operated independently from Moldova since 1992.”
It is funny how acceptable it was for regions to break away from Yugoslavia and USSR, but when it comes to, say, Donbass, Kurdish Turkey, or Transnistrua, they are “unrecognised ”
“Sergei Lavrov made a thinly veiled threat against Moldova, saying it could soon become the “next Ukraine”.”
Actual quote: West is looking at Moldova to play the role of the “next Ukraine”, and the country’s President Maia Sandu is itching to join NATO
“Moldova had its own Maidan moment in 2020 when pro-EU candidate Maia Sandu was elected president, replacing pro-Russian leader Igor Dodon. ”
So, exactly OPPOSITE the Maidan moment where a legally and properly elected pro Russian leader of Ukraine was ousted in a violent, US funded coup and had to flee for his life.
Sandu, thankfully, has not had to flee violent Russian funded “protests”.
“Russia allegedly planned a similar coup in Montenegro”
From the linked report: Katnic noted that authorities did not have information directly linking Moscow to the planned assassination.
“Last month, Sandu said the Kremlin was planning to stage a coup in Moldova… 50 to 100 people were set to be involved in the plot”
As Goebbels said, accuse your enemies of what you yourself are doing.
And note the difference in tone versus:
Transnistria “alleged” …that Ukraine had been preparing plans to assassinate several members of its government.
“Ukrainian forces instead pushed Russian troops back across the Dnipro River ”
Or rather, the Russians withdrew in a planned manner from the right bank and Kherson, with minimal casualties….in start contrast to Ukraine at Mariopol, Lysichank, Bakhmut….
Those Russian offensives just keeping bigger and bigger.
They will take all of Ukraine by the year 3542…
Oh no, I think it will be over in a couple of years and it will be the collapse of the russian empire
Oh no, I think it will be over in a couple of years and it will be the collapse of the russian empire
Those Russian offensives just keeping bigger and bigger.
They will take all of Ukraine by the year 3542…
“internationally unrecognised breakaway republic of Transnistria, which has operated independently from Moldova since 1992.”
It is funny how acceptable it was for regions to break away from Yugoslavia and USSR, but when it comes to, say, Donbass, Kurdish Turkey, or Transnistrua, they are “unrecognised ”
“Sergei Lavrov made a thinly veiled threat against Moldova, saying it could soon become the “next Ukraine”.”
Actual quote: West is looking at Moldova to play the role of the “next Ukraine”, and the country’s President Maia Sandu is itching to join NATO
“Moldova had its own Maidan moment in 2020 when pro-EU candidate Maia Sandu was elected president, replacing pro-Russian leader Igor Dodon. ”
So, exactly OPPOSITE the Maidan moment where a legally and properly elected pro Russian leader of Ukraine was ousted in a violent, US funded coup and had to flee for his life.
Sandu, thankfully, has not had to flee violent Russian funded “protests”.
“Russia allegedly planned a similar coup in Montenegro”
From the linked report: Katnic noted that authorities did not have information directly linking Moscow to the planned assassination.
“Last month, Sandu said the Kremlin was planning to stage a coup in Moldova… 50 to 100 people were set to be involved in the plot”
As Goebbels said, accuse your enemies of what you yourself are doing.
And note the difference in tone versus:
Transnistria “alleged” …that Ukraine had been preparing plans to assassinate several members of its government.
“Ukrainian forces instead pushed Russian troops back across the Dnipro River ”
Or rather, the Russians withdrew in a planned manner from the right bank and Kherson, with minimal casualties….in start contrast to Ukraine at Mariopol, Lysichank, Bakhmut….
The trouble with Transnistria is it’s full of Russians or Moldovans who are fervently pro-Russian, anyone vaguely pro-Western has left long ago. Any incorporation of the region in current circumstances will simply skew the whole country towards Russia.
Perhaps Moldova should simply recognise Transnistrian independence, classify them as a hostile (which they are) country, and seal the borders. Ukraine can do the same on their eastern border, and let the Transnistrians ‘enjoy’ their independence, with Russia propping them up as best it can (even further draining the Russian economy)
The trouble with Transnistria is it’s full of Russians or Moldovans who are fervently pro-Russian, anyone vaguely pro-Western has left long ago. Any incorporation of the region in current circumstances will simply skew the whole country towards Russia.
Perhaps Moldova should simply recognise Transnistrian independence, classify them as a hostile (which they are) country, and seal the borders. Ukraine can do the same on their eastern border, and let the Transnistrians ‘enjoy’ their independence, with Russia propping them up as best it can (even further draining the Russian economy)
“thinly veiled threat against Moldova”? Hardly. That makes “I am going to punch you in the face” a vague hint.
“thinly veiled threat against Moldova”? Hardly. That makes “I am going to punch you in the face” a vague hint.