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The West is decoupling from the rest of the world (Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images)
For the past year, Nato countries, led by the US, have strived to nudge the rest of the world into providing military aid for Ukraine and sanctioning Russia, in the hope of isolating the latter. They have, by and large, failed on both counts. Western officials might point out that 141 of 193 countries supported a recent UN resolution demanding Russia withdraw from Ukraine, but the 32 abstaining countries included China, India, Pakistan and South Africa — which alone account for around 40% of the global population.
Despite the West’s attempts to “globalise” the conflict, only 33 nations — representing just over one-eighth of the global population — have imposed sanctions on Russia and sent military aid to Ukraine: the UK, US, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan and the EU — in other words, those countries that are directly under the US sphere of influence, which in many cases involves a significant US military presence. The remaining nations, comprising close to 90% of the world’s population, have refused to follow suit. If anything, the war has actually strengthened Russian relations with a number of major non-Western countries, including China and India, and accelerated the rise of a new international order in which it is the West that looks increasingly isolated, not Russia.
Since the invasion, China has hugely increased its purchases of Russian oil, gas and coal, while exporting far more machinery, manufactured products and high-end electronics in the other direction; they have boosted their bilateral trade by more than 30%. The two countries have also committed to significant investment and infrastructure projects through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the world’s largest regional grouping in terms of geographic scope and population, which also includes India, Pakistan, Iran and all the major Central Asian republics. Moreover, as a result of Western sanctions, they have been forced to rely on rouble-yuan trade instead of using the dollar, which has enhanced the yuan’s reserve currency status.
On last month’s anniversary of the Russian invasion, Wang Yi, Beijing’s most senior diplomat, said that China was committed to “strengthen[ing] and deepen[ing] the Sino-Russian friendship” and “promot[ing] mutually beneficial cooperation in all areas”. Even more significantly, the two countries have increasingly been speaking with one voice about the need for a more balanced international order, explicitly framing their collaboration as one aimed at weakening the West’s dominance in global affairs. China, in particular, has implicitly embraced Russia’s view, espoused by foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, that “this is not about Ukraine at all… It reflects the battle over what the world order will look like”. In this context, it should come as no surprise that Beijing and Moscow have maintained the steady pace of their joint military exercises, nor that Xi is due to meet Putin in Moscow today.
America’s increasingly aggressive posture towards China has only fuelled the perception, among Beijing’s elites, that they are united with Russia against the West in an existential fight for survival. Xi recently issued an unusually blunt rebuke of US policy, in which he accused Washington of being engaged in a campaign to suppress China: “Western countries — led by the US — have implemented all-round containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedentedly severe challenges to our country’s development,” he was quoted as saying by state media. This represents a significant departure from China’s traditionally measured approach. It followed the publication, by China’s foreign ministry, of an unusually critical document titled US Hegemony and Its Perils, which claimed that America has “acted… to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, pursue, maintain and abuse hegemony, advance subversion and infiltration, and willfully wage wars, bringing harm to the international community”.
The problem for the US, and for the West, is that this message is starting to resonate around the world. Many non-Westerners feel that the US is in no position to lecture other countries about the sanctity of sovereignty, territorial integrity, international law and the so-called rules-based order. They recognise that the US has violated these principles before — most recently with the disastrous invasions and bombing campaigns against Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria. This is why the West’s attempt to frame the conflict in Ukraine as a moral struggle of “good versus evil” elicits unease among many non-Westerners, especially in those countries that have been on the receiving end of Western colonial endeavours.
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SubscribeThe author appears to be drawing some incredibly long bows here. Suggesting that because all those (largely poorer) countries haven’t joined in with the western sanctions means that they must therefore be aligned with Putin seems to be clutching at straws. Likewise that India is abandoning the west simply because they’ve taken advantage of buying cheap oil from Russia again seems far fetched.
He fails to mention Chinas demographic time bomb due to its one child policy, whereby it’s getting old before it’s hard chance to get rich. There’s no mention of Chinas 20%+ youth unemployment or it’s colossal asset bubble. Most of Chinas high value trade is still with western nations. Despite the tension it isn’t going to give that up and replace it with the Russians or the South Africans, a basket case of a country that can barely feed its population or keep the lights on.
As has been mentioned, whilst the countries sanctioning Putin make up a a fraction of the world’s population, they’re a majority of the worlds economy which is much more important in the context of the article than sheer numbers.
All in all the article seems to have cherry picked a few stats in order to fit a predetermined narrative rather than being an objective look at the geopolitical situation arising from the conflict
That’s what he does, I’m afraid, yet for some reason he gets a lot of column inches on this website.
You get this on UnHerd about 5 times a weeks. The authors look at some stats, copy a couple of graphs and, ‘Bob’s your Aunty,’ an article appears.
(This particular Bob sees their self more as a woman.)
Then why would you read the stories and comment? It seems like a waste of your time if you think they’re rubbish.There’s plenty of other publications.
Because you have to read something to know whether it’s worth reading or not. If you give up reading you give up life.
ok, maybe you have to read some of but why waste your precious time responding if it isn’t worthy in the first place. Nah, doesn’t wash.. sounds more like you’re in denial!
ok, maybe you have to read some of but why waste your precious time responding if it isn’t worthy in the first place. Nah, doesn’t wash.. sounds more like you’re in denial!
there are, not there’s iz badd ingishh
Because you have to read something to know whether it’s worth reading or not. If you give up reading you give up life.
there are, not there’s iz badd ingishh
Then why would you read the stories and comment? It seems like a waste of your time if you think they’re rubbish.There’s plenty of other publications.
And that, it would seem, is his real objective. But then, everybody has to eat.
You get this on UnHerd about 5 times a weeks. The authors look at some stats, copy a couple of graphs and, ‘Bob’s your Aunty,’ an article appears.
(This particular Bob sees their self more as a woman.)
And that, it would seem, is his real objective. But then, everybody has to eat.
The countries sanctioning are now barely a majority of the global economy in dollar terms, and in purchasing parity terms they are a minority. They are, collectively, growing far, far more slowly than the rest. And they are, collectively, running a huge current account deficit that is draining away their global investment position from which their economic clout comes.
The US and UK depend on selling their assets to fund consumption. They are literally selling their futures to pay for stuff today. Short of capital to fix problems, they are also now well down the road of repeatedly relying on the monetising of debt to finance balance sheet problems. This is end of empires type desperation.
This is a major reversal of economic strength in just 30 years, and one that has accelerated in the last decade. It looks exactly like the decline of Britain did and as we know Britain’s global power ebbed away slowly, then suddenly almost immediately after WW2.
I’m not saying that the west doesn’t have its own problems to deal with, but I’m still of the opinion that they pale in comparison to those facing the likes of China and Russia. There’s no doubt that the western share of the economy will diminish as the Asian nations especially become more established, but I can’t see any realistic scenario whereby China or Russia will become dominant powers
It’s not so much China and Russia will become stronger, its that we become far, far weaker. They can dominate if we collapse. What stops us becoming basket cases like South Africa?
The USA and its client states are economically weakening and wasting their remaining strategic power by not recognising their weakness, let alone trying to reverse that weakness. Using the international dollar system as a weapon was really stupid and only hastened the already slow decline of the dollar. One of just many really poor decisions that point to a bleak future for everyone. Can you think of any good trends in the West today?
Demographics is a small problem relative to our wilful destruction from within and the increasingly parastic relationship between the state and vested interests.
I totally agree with your analysis here. At a micro level, in a week when a former US President dreaming of a comeback may be indicted for paying off a porn star, and a former UK Prime Minister dreaming of a comeback is defending himself from a charge of lying to Parliament about parties it’s not entirely surprising that non aligned nations don’t take us entirely seriously any more. It’s also worth noting that the likeliest Republican challengers in 2024 are busily signalling a complete reversal on Ukraine if elected, so why commit now to a policy, in opposition to China and Russia, that may completely change.
I would vote for Lady Stormington Daniels every time….
I would vote for Lady Stormington Daniels every time….
Democracy is what stops the West becoming basket cases.
“Democracy” just means rule by the deep state.
stupid nonsense.
We don’t have real democracy. We vote for parties and the parties tell us to shut up. This is democracy from De Toqueville’s theory, not real democracy.
Actually, the reason the parties tell us to shut up is because they can. A very small number of people run the parties while the rest of the partisans phone it in rather than participate. I learned this over the last 10 years. Have you ever been to a legislative district meeting? Have you ever been elected to be a Precinct Committee Officer for your neighborhood? These are the smallest grain of party participation in our system and people generally stopped participating. In my 36th legislative district in Washington State (this district is in Seattle) most of the elected positions go unfilled. Nobody runs. Both parties suffer this. The work gets done by the folks who show up and in this case, they’ve driven the parties to extremes. Sensible moderates could fix this, but they stopped participating. What could go wrong? Well, just look around.
Actually, the reason the parties tell us to shut up is because they can. A very small number of people run the parties while the rest of the partisans phone it in rather than participate. I learned this over the last 10 years. Have you ever been to a legislative district meeting? Have you ever been elected to be a Precinct Committee Officer for your neighborhood? These are the smallest grain of party participation in our system and people generally stopped participating. In my 36th legislative district in Washington State (this district is in Seattle) most of the elected positions go unfilled. Nobody runs. Both parties suffer this. The work gets done by the folks who show up and in this case, they’ve driven the parties to extremes. Sensible moderates could fix this, but they stopped participating. What could go wrong? Well, just look around.
stupid nonsense.
We don’t have real democracy. We vote for parties and the parties tell us to shut up. This is democracy from De Toqueville’s theory, not real democracy.
You’re right, but democracy is now dead in all but superficial appearance and has been for a long time.. the oligarch puppet masters have been in control for a long time.
“Democracy” just means rule by the deep state.
You’re right, but democracy is now dead in all but superficial appearance and has been for a long time.. the oligarch puppet masters have been in control for a long time.
Spot on. All the signs are there, plain to be seen by all except the willfully blind.
I totally agree with your analysis here. At a micro level, in a week when a former US President dreaming of a comeback may be indicted for paying off a porn star, and a former UK Prime Minister dreaming of a comeback is defending himself from a charge of lying to Parliament about parties it’s not entirely surprising that non aligned nations don’t take us entirely seriously any more. It’s also worth noting that the likeliest Republican challengers in 2024 are busily signalling a complete reversal on Ukraine if elected, so why commit now to a policy, in opposition to China and Russia, that may completely change.
Democracy is what stops the West becoming basket cases.
Spot on. All the signs are there, plain to be seen by all except the willfully blind.
The erosion of freedoms in the West, in my opinion, is a far greater problem than any that the Russians and Chinese face.
That would be because we still have some whilst the denizens of those two tyrannies have virtually none to lose
A gross exaggeration.. there is little to chose these days..
A gross exaggeration.. there is little to chose these days..
That’s ridiculous, since Russian and Chinese freedoms aren’t just eroded, they’re nonexistent.
Have you ever spent time in these countries? Or are you believing what you have been conditioned to believe?
Do I really need to spend time in Putin’s Russia or Xi’s China to know that these are dictatorships with severely limited personal freedoms, esp. compared to those we have in the West? Are you really so deluded and brainwashed?
Eh, you do! You’ll be amazed if you do! I absolutly guarantee it!
No, I think YOU do.
No, I think YOU do.
Amazing how many brainwashed and ignorant people are reading this silly article and support Putin and Xi. Quite the eye-opener.
Eh, you do! You’ll be amazed if you do! I absolutly guarantee it!
Amazing how many brainwashed and ignorant people are reading this silly article and support Putin and Xi. Quite the eye-opener.
I have, and I certainly saw signs of disgruntlement with the Chinese govt even years ago.
Wow, disgruntlement with the government.. let’s hope we never see that is the West! ha ha ha ..you have got to be kidding!
You’re an ignorant moron. There’s really no other conclusion.
You’re an ignorant moron. There’s really no other conclusion.
Wow, disgruntlement with the government.. let’s hope we never see that is the West! ha ha ha ..you have got to be kidding!
I have spent 10 years in Russia and support Harry’s statement, discounted for hyperbole.
I have spent 6 months living in Moscow…and unfreedom is built into the DNA
Do I really need to spend time in Putin’s Russia or Xi’s China to know that these are dictatorships with severely limited personal freedoms, esp. compared to those we have in the West? Are you really so deluded and brainwashed?
I have, and I certainly saw signs of disgruntlement with the Chinese govt even years ago.
I have spent 10 years in Russia and support Harry’s statement, discounted for hyperbole.
I have spent 6 months living in Moscow…and unfreedom is built into the DNA
Rubbish.. if that were the case Putin and Xi would be very unpopular. The opposite is the case..
It means nothing to say that Putin and Xi are “popular”. Hitler was popular too, wasn’t he? The Russians culturally like strong leaders, and we like beating our leaders up and getting rid of them when they fail. The underated beauty of our system is that we can get rid of them, or they decide to go themselves when it all gets too much. Putin and Xi don’t have that option because the sheer brutality of their political cultures.
You make Dumb and Dumber sound like Einstein.
They don’t have to be popular, they just have to be powerful
True! Their election landslides were incredible
It means nothing to say that Putin and Xi are “popular”. Hitler was popular too, wasn’t he? The Russians culturally like strong leaders, and we like beating our leaders up and getting rid of them when they fail. The underated beauty of our system is that we can get rid of them, or they decide to go themselves when it all gets too much. Putin and Xi don’t have that option because the sheer brutality of their political cultures.
You make Dumb and Dumber sound like Einstein.
They don’t have to be popular, they just have to be powerful
True! Their election landslides were incredible
Have you ever spent time in these countries? Or are you believing what you have been conditioned to believe?
Rubbish.. if that were the case Putin and Xi would be very unpopular. The opposite is the case..
Absolutely. But we are brainwashed :
America = good, China = bad, Russia = bad, etc
El stupido.
..run out of arguments have you?
It’s pointless when the argument is with ignorant morons.
It’s pointless when the argument is with ignorant morons.
..run out of arguments have you?
El stupido.
Perhaps because tyhey have very limited freedoms to erode ?
“Greater”? By what metric? Maybe eroding faster? I would tend to say that freedom is equally important everywhere, but some places serve as examples, “A City upon a Hill”. Also, if the global cop gets corrupted, there’s no one able to control him. So I could argue for your point, but it’s pretty silly in the context of the immediate threat of the Russo-Ukraine war.
Russians and Chinese live under brutal dictatorships. If you think the minor (relative to dictatorship) erosions to our freedoms are a bigger problem, it can only be because you are ignorant of life under dictatorship. Just ask any refugee from China or the former Eastern bloc. They’ll educate you.
I grew up in Zimbabwe under Robert Mugabe’s rule. There is nothing a person in your shoes can tell me about oppression.
I grew up in Zimbabwe under Robert Mugabe’s rule. There is nothing a person in your shoes can tell me about oppression.
That would be because we still have some whilst the denizens of those two tyrannies have virtually none to lose
That’s ridiculous, since Russian and Chinese freedoms aren’t just eroded, they’re nonexistent.
Absolutely. But we are brainwashed :
America = good, China = bad, Russia = bad, etc
Perhaps because tyhey have very limited freedoms to erode ?
“Greater”? By what metric? Maybe eroding faster? I would tend to say that freedom is equally important everywhere, but some places serve as examples, “A City upon a Hill”. Also, if the global cop gets corrupted, there’s no one able to control him. So I could argue for your point, but it’s pretty silly in the context of the immediate threat of the Russo-Ukraine war.
Russians and Chinese live under brutal dictatorships. If you think the minor (relative to dictatorship) erosions to our freedoms are a bigger problem, it can only be because you are ignorant of life under dictatorship. Just ask any refugee from China or the former Eastern bloc. They’ll educate you.
The biggest difference between the West and China/Russia is the West spends £billions on the welfare of its Citizens and China/Russia uses them as Cannon fodder as can be seen in the Ukraine war and the Chinese lockdowns that literally starved its Citizens.
Then you are seriously shortsighted I’m afraid.. if you took away US military might it would be an emperor with no clothes.. and it looks like the Ukraine war is making serious inroads into depleting US ammunition and land war weapons. Unless the dollar holds up (unlikely – look at the bank failures/debt) the US is finished.. smart Western nations should look to the future and stop riding a dying horse..
It’s not so much China and Russia will become stronger, its that we become far, far weaker. They can dominate if we collapse. What stops us becoming basket cases like South Africa?
The USA and its client states are economically weakening and wasting their remaining strategic power by not recognising their weakness, let alone trying to reverse that weakness. Using the international dollar system as a weapon was really stupid and only hastened the already slow decline of the dollar. One of just many really poor decisions that point to a bleak future for everyone. Can you think of any good trends in the West today?
Demographics is a small problem relative to our wilful destruction from within and the increasingly parastic relationship between the state and vested interests.
The erosion of freedoms in the West, in my opinion, is a far greater problem than any that the Russians and Chinese face.
The biggest difference between the West and China/Russia is the West spends £billions on the welfare of its Citizens and China/Russia uses them as Cannon fodder as can be seen in the Ukraine war and the Chinese lockdowns that literally starved its Citizens.
Then you are seriously shortsighted I’m afraid.. if you took away US military might it would be an emperor with no clothes.. and it looks like the Ukraine war is making serious inroads into depleting US ammunition and land war weapons. Unless the dollar holds up (unlikely – look at the bank failures/debt) the US is finished.. smart Western nations should look to the future and stop riding a dying horse..
Utter BS. What “assets” are being sold off. I can’t believe 48 people upvoted this nonsense. Ridiculous.
Have you read any business news today? The federal reserve is in quite a flap. They are just selling, bailing, writing stuff off left right and centre right now.
Sure. I just looked at news about the federal reserve. Apparently the Fed is considering a rate hike and there some uncertainty about some banks. Not exactly end days yet, it would seem.
OK. That is very simplistic and optimistic. I can’t help you. Back to your blissful existence.
Yu do realize a Marxist would have been saying the same thing in the 1930s?
…yep, the Chinese probably would; that’ll the the same Chinese that pulled a billion people out of dire poverty while wages in the West stagnated and are now at starvation levels? Bear in mind the Chinese had to start from situations of having bern looted for centuries while the West had that loot to start with, over the same period. It just took a bit longer for socialism and it succeeded despite savage sanctions.
The west is at starvation levels….. perhaps on planet zog, where you seem to come from.
The west is at starvation levels….. perhaps on planet zog, where you seem to come from.
I imagine most people in the 1930s realised the stock market was puking. I think it was big news.
And pretty much ever since. The lunatics have taken over this asylum.
…yep, the Chinese probably would; that’ll the the same Chinese that pulled a billion people out of dire poverty while wages in the West stagnated and are now at starvation levels? Bear in mind the Chinese had to start from situations of having bern looted for centuries while the West had that loot to start with, over the same period. It just took a bit longer for socialism and it succeeded despite savage sanctions.
I imagine most people in the 1930s realised the stock market was puking. I think it was big news.
And pretty much ever since. The lunatics have taken over this asylum.
Yu do realize a Marxist would have been saying the same thing in the 1930s?
OK. That is very simplistic and optimistic. I can’t help you. Back to your blissful existence.
Sure. I just looked at news about the federal reserve. Apparently the Fed is considering a rate hike and there some uncertainty about some banks. Not exactly end days yet, it would seem.
They’ll be the 48 that are aware of massive and numerous Chinese takeover of US and EU assets.. check it out!
Have you read any business news today? The federal reserve is in quite a flap. They are just selling, bailing, writing stuff off left right and centre right now.
They’ll be the 48 that are aware of massive and numerous Chinese takeover of US and EU assets.. check it out!
Now that makes sense, as indeed the article itself makes perfect sense.
And that’s why Russia and China are unable to defend their borders against unending hordes of immigrants seeking asylum, while nobody would risk their life to gain entry to the USA or Western Europe anymore, as they are fading failed empires.
logic and common sense are useless against the brain-dead and deluded.
logic and common sense are useless against the brain-dead and deluded.
I’m not saying that the west doesn’t have its own problems to deal with, but I’m still of the opinion that they pale in comparison to those facing the likes of China and Russia. There’s no doubt that the western share of the economy will diminish as the Asian nations especially become more established, but I can’t see any realistic scenario whereby China or Russia will become dominant powers
Utter BS. What “assets” are being sold off. I can’t believe 48 people upvoted this nonsense. Ridiculous.
Now that makes sense, as indeed the article itself makes perfect sense.
And that’s why Russia and China are unable to defend their borders against unending hordes of immigrants seeking asylum, while nobody would risk their life to gain entry to the USA or Western Europe anymore, as they are fading failed empires.
I agree. I also think (these ideas have been doing the rounds) what seems to be overlooked is this was and would happen anyway regardless of the war. The war just accelerated it and brought such divisions into a starker light. China and Russia signed a general agreement before the war even started. The real question is how the “west” is going to react and play its cards because as you say that’s where the money is and hence the real power.
You forget the rate at which that is changing, and has changed. The US is flat broke and in fatal decline politically, socially, culturally, industrially and economically.. The ‘wealth’ is largely funny money and the power is not quite what you think either.
You forget the rate at which that is changing, and has changed. The US is flat broke and in fatal decline politically, socially, culturally, industrially and economically.. The ‘wealth’ is largely funny money and the power is not quite what you think either.
It seems to me that most of the world is ambivalent about the conflict they are certainly not prepared to sacrifice their own interests to support Ukraine.
Any reservations they have are no do doubt assuaged by Western exploits in Iraq and Libya
There are no “western exploits” in Ukraine. There is Ukraine defending itself, and getting aid from neighbouring countries who get it far better than commenters like you. Supporting Ukraine against a voracious Russian dictator may not seem to be in other countries interests, until the bear comes for them. That this sort of short-termism — and short-term memoryism — is being promoted reveals a profound historical ignorance.
Was Bush a dictator when he decided to invade Iraq? You would say not. Why? Because he supports your theories.
No, I would say not because he was elected twice and stepped down when his term was up. What planet do you inhabit?
But the invasion of Iraq was illegal, ie not sanctioned by the UN: and it was on the pretext of WMD which never existed, and Bush and Blair both knew that but lied to Congress via Colin Powell .. the chief weapons inspector Blix has called them both war criminals and so do I. What crazy planet do you live on? Is it called Blind Denial?
I don’t suppose you’ve ever heard of moving goalposts, even though that’s exactly what you’ve done. I showed Bush was no dictator and explained why. His invasion of Iraq doesn’t make him one, though I don’t expect you to understand that simple concept.
I don’t suppose you’ve ever heard of moving goalposts, even though that’s exactly what you’ve done. I showed Bush was no dictator and explained why. His invasion of Iraq doesn’t make him one, though I don’t expect you to understand that simple concept.
But the invasion of Iraq was illegal, ie not sanctioned by the UN: and it was on the pretext of WMD which never existed, and Bush and Blair both knew that but lied to Congress via Colin Powell .. the chief weapons inspector Blix has called them both war criminals and so do I. What crazy planet do you live on? Is it called Blind Denial?
No, I would say not because he was elected twice and stepped down when his term was up. What planet do you inhabit?
Mr Storm I do not suppose my historical ignorance is nearly as profound as your own.
Indeed you seem to have forgotten all about Iraq and Libya, not to mention Cuba, El Salvador, Nicaragua and so on.
Why should countries in that do not boarder Russia, or have no reason to fear Russia, let the invasion of Ukraine get in the way if there is a financial incentive for them in continuing to trade with Russia.
For all the posturing, Russia and the US/the West potato potato
Then you suppose incorrectly.
Then you suppose incorrectly.
Can you be a little more simplistic please.. your take on the situation is so nuanced it’s confusing the 5 year olds.
Thete is one voracious country that invades other sovereign nations at will, kills millions of its peoples, murders democratically elected leaders, and steals it’s oil and other resources ..but that’s not Russia and it’s not China either!
This is the sort of predictable, boilerplate drivel Marxist-Leninist drone on about.
This is the sort of predictable, boilerplate drivel Marxist-Leninist drone on about.
Was Bush a dictator when he decided to invade Iraq? You would say not. Why? Because he supports your theories.
Mr Storm I do not suppose my historical ignorance is nearly as profound as your own.
Indeed you seem to have forgotten all about Iraq and Libya, not to mention Cuba, El Salvador, Nicaragua and so on.
Why should countries in that do not boarder Russia, or have no reason to fear Russia, let the invasion of Ukraine get in the way if there is a financial incentive for them in continuing to trade with Russia.
For all the posturing, Russia and the US/the West potato potato
Can you be a little more simplistic please.. your take on the situation is so nuanced it’s confusing the 5 year olds.
Thete is one voracious country that invades other sovereign nations at will, kills millions of its peoples, murders democratically elected leaders, and steals it’s oil and other resources ..but that’s not Russia and it’s not China either!
There are no “western exploits” in Ukraine. There is Ukraine defending itself, and getting aid from neighbouring countries who get it far better than commenters like you. Supporting Ukraine against a voracious Russian dictator may not seem to be in other countries interests, until the bear comes for them. That this sort of short-termism — and short-term memoryism — is being promoted reveals a profound historical ignorance.
Have you been watching Peter Zeihan videos on youtube, he seems have made a career out of the idea that China and Russia are doomed due to demographic problems. Selling BS to right thinking people is a great business idea
Of course the West has great demographics, just take a stroll around London, Paris, Berlin, Brussels ect
Right now in California, which has great demographics BTW, the smart set want to build a kind of high speed rail line connecting the large cities, well they just can’t seem to get it done. In bad demographics China they went from no high speed rail to more high speed rail than the rest of the World combined in a bout 10 years. And in Japan which has terrible demographics, they are now building a Maglev line running the length of the country
Zeihan and some others, like George Friedman, have made a lucrative business of pronouncing perilous prophecies to open-mouthed audiences. They are as likely to be proven right as are the doomsayers of the Climate Change Cult; but it’s a good racket while it lasts. Friedman, I just discovered, was in 1991 was warning of an impending war between the US and … Japan! With well over 400 pages he wrote quite a fat book, full of supposedly persuasive data — and as wrong as could be. But that has not induced Friedman to get out of the prophesy business.
As to building high-speed rail, if that’s taken as proof of advanced development, China wins, as does Russia with its trans-Siberian railroad, even though it’s slower. But anyone studying American geography should conclude that, except for a small part of the northeast and the DC corridor, the economic feasibility of such showy projects doesn’t exist.
Its not really about high speed rail, I just used that as an example
I could have used crime, look at Chicago and its wonderful demographics, how many people will be shot this year in Chicago, how many will be shot in a Chinese city of the same size ?
According to Zeihan and co, Chad should be a fantastic place to live, due to its superior demographics. But its clearly not. Why is that ?
Are you kidding? There is no street crime in China because the criminals run the country and do as they wish. Far more people in China are killed each year than in America; the difference is that they are killed by their own government.
Are you kidding? There is no street crime in China because the criminals run the country and do as they wish. Far more people in China are killed each year than in America; the difference is that they are killed by their own government.
Its not really about high speed rail, I just used that as an example
I could have used crime, look at Chicago and its wonderful demographics, how many people will be shot this year in Chicago, how many will be shot in a Chinese city of the same size ?
According to Zeihan and co, Chad should be a fantastic place to live, due to its superior demographics. But its clearly not. Why is that ?
I don’t know what to think of Zeihan but I do know, having watched his videos, that his predictions about Russia and China are based on a lot lot more than just demographic projections.
Zeihan and some others, like George Friedman, have made a lucrative business of pronouncing perilous prophecies to open-mouthed audiences. They are as likely to be proven right as are the doomsayers of the Climate Change Cult; but it’s a good racket while it lasts. Friedman, I just discovered, was in 1991 was warning of an impending war between the US and … Japan! With well over 400 pages he wrote quite a fat book, full of supposedly persuasive data — and as wrong as could be. But that has not induced Friedman to get out of the prophesy business.
As to building high-speed rail, if that’s taken as proof of advanced development, China wins, as does Russia with its trans-Siberian railroad, even though it’s slower. But anyone studying American geography should conclude that, except for a small part of the northeast and the DC corridor, the economic feasibility of such showy projects doesn’t exist.
I don’t know what to think of Zeihan but I do know, having watched his videos, that his predictions about Russia and China are based on a lot lot more than just demographic projections.
It comes as no surprise to me that the leaders of many countries choose to side with a couple of leaders who have changed to change their constitutions in order to remain in power indefinitely.
Whether that is what the citizens of those countries want is a different matter. But I don’t think they will get any choice.
Now that’s an intelligent comment.
Now that’s an intelligent comment.
Have a look at the paper which is his main source, it’s a bit more than a few stats Billy Bob:
https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/publications/a-world-divided/
You couldn’t be more wrong if you set out to be. I guess you simply cannot accept that the world is changing. The British Empire is long gone (although its neocolonialism abides) and the US+ Empire is now crumbling. All the signs are there from near civil war, bank failures, unsustainable debt, dedollarisation, mad leaders, endless lies, double standards, huge corruption and a suicidal military industrial complex..
It was only a matter of time before the victims got sick of US hegemony and Anglo American neocolonialism.. It’s squeaky bum time for the white supremacist West.
Not only do I agree with you on these points, but Russia is being hollowed out and exhausted by its war. China’s demographic problem is now echoed by Russia, which has lost a significant proportion of its young, brightest and best to the West – a huge gain for the latter going forward that barely gets mentioned. The idea that this shaky Axis of Dictators is taking over the world is laughable – Russia is a drowning man throwing sweets to children on the shore for help that they cannot possibly provide. China is standing by seeing what it can extract before helping, but terrified of being dragged in alongside in the process. Emerging economies have enormous problems of their own, and most can’t afford to fall out with anyone right now, so they stay low, stay neutral – and that’s best for their citizens. The west needs to reach out to them and compete using development aid, not try to bully them with morality-based appeals – given the US’s shabby record in that respect that’s pure arrogance.
Simon is right. Demography is destiny in the case and China and Russia are fucked
Simon is right. Demography is destiny in the case and China and Russia are fucked
The US has far bigger housing bubbles and asset bubbles. It also has an aging population and a fentanyl crisis.
What is your point?? Odd post, this is the kind of flawed logic that turns off international audiences.
Not nearly aging as fast as Russia and China and in fact America fares quite well especially linked with Mexico
Not nearly aging as fast as Russia and China and in fact America fares quite well especially linked with Mexico
Completely cogent analysis.
None of these writers seem to have noticed that there is a planet-sized elephant in the room: AI.
Economic competitiveness will increasingly depend on wide public access to the new tools derived from these technologies, a development that poses huge, perhaps insurmountable, problems for authoritarian regimes – as the CCP has already learnt.
I don’t understand the relevance of population size in this article – “The remaining nations, comprising close to 90% of the world’s population, have refused to follow suit” – when many of these governments don’t reflect opinion in their country in any way
That’s what he does, I’m afraid, yet for some reason he gets a lot of column inches on this website.
The countries sanctioning are now barely a majority of the global economy in dollar terms, and in purchasing parity terms they are a minority. They are, collectively, growing far, far more slowly than the rest. And they are, collectively, running a huge current account deficit that is draining away their global investment position from which their economic clout comes.
The US and UK depend on selling their assets to fund consumption. They are literally selling their futures to pay for stuff today. Short of capital to fix problems, they are also now well down the road of repeatedly relying on the monetising of debt to finance balance sheet problems. This is end of empires type desperation.
This is a major reversal of economic strength in just 30 years, and one that has accelerated in the last decade. It looks exactly like the decline of Britain did and as we know Britain’s global power ebbed away slowly, then suddenly almost immediately after WW2.
I agree. I also think (these ideas have been doing the rounds) what seems to be overlooked is this was and would happen anyway regardless of the war. The war just accelerated it and brought such divisions into a starker light. China and Russia signed a general agreement before the war even started. The real question is how the “west” is going to react and play its cards because as you say that’s where the money is and hence the real power.
It seems to me that most of the world is ambivalent about the conflict they are certainly not prepared to sacrifice their own interests to support Ukraine.
Any reservations they have are no do doubt assuaged by Western exploits in Iraq and Libya
Have you been watching Peter Zeihan videos on youtube, he seems have made a career out of the idea that China and Russia are doomed due to demographic problems. Selling BS to right thinking people is a great business idea
Of course the West has great demographics, just take a stroll around London, Paris, Berlin, Brussels ect
Right now in California, which has great demographics BTW, the smart set want to build a kind of high speed rail line connecting the large cities, well they just can’t seem to get it done. In bad demographics China they went from no high speed rail to more high speed rail than the rest of the World combined in a bout 10 years. And in Japan which has terrible demographics, they are now building a Maglev line running the length of the country
It comes as no surprise to me that the leaders of many countries choose to side with a couple of leaders who have changed to change their constitutions in order to remain in power indefinitely.
Whether that is what the citizens of those countries want is a different matter. But I don’t think they will get any choice.
Have a look at the paper which is his main source, it’s a bit more than a few stats Billy Bob:
https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/publications/a-world-divided/
You couldn’t be more wrong if you set out to be. I guess you simply cannot accept that the world is changing. The British Empire is long gone (although its neocolonialism abides) and the US+ Empire is now crumbling. All the signs are there from near civil war, bank failures, unsustainable debt, dedollarisation, mad leaders, endless lies, double standards, huge corruption and a suicidal military industrial complex..
It was only a matter of time before the victims got sick of US hegemony and Anglo American neocolonialism.. It’s squeaky bum time for the white supremacist West.
Not only do I agree with you on these points, but Russia is being hollowed out and exhausted by its war. China’s demographic problem is now echoed by Russia, which has lost a significant proportion of its young, brightest and best to the West – a huge gain for the latter going forward that barely gets mentioned. The idea that this shaky Axis of Dictators is taking over the world is laughable – Russia is a drowning man throwing sweets to children on the shore for help that they cannot possibly provide. China is standing by seeing what it can extract before helping, but terrified of being dragged in alongside in the process. Emerging economies have enormous problems of their own, and most can’t afford to fall out with anyone right now, so they stay low, stay neutral – and that’s best for their citizens. The west needs to reach out to them and compete using development aid, not try to bully them with morality-based appeals – given the US’s shabby record in that respect that’s pure arrogance.
The US has far bigger housing bubbles and asset bubbles. It also has an aging population and a fentanyl crisis.
What is your point?? Odd post, this is the kind of flawed logic that turns off international audiences.
Completely cogent analysis.
None of these writers seem to have noticed that there is a planet-sized elephant in the room: AI.
Economic competitiveness will increasingly depend on wide public access to the new tools derived from these technologies, a development that poses huge, perhaps insurmountable, problems for authoritarian regimes – as the CCP has already learnt.
I don’t understand the relevance of population size in this article – “The remaining nations, comprising close to 90% of the world’s population, have refused to follow suit” – when many of these governments don’t reflect opinion in their country in any way
The author appears to be drawing some incredibly long bows here. Suggesting that because all those (largely poorer) countries haven’t joined in with the western sanctions means that they must therefore be aligned with Putin seems to be clutching at straws. Likewise that India is abandoning the west simply because they’ve taken advantage of buying cheap oil from Russia again seems far fetched.
He fails to mention Chinas demographic time bomb due to its one child policy, whereby it’s getting old before it’s hard chance to get rich. There’s no mention of Chinas 20%+ youth unemployment or it’s colossal asset bubble. Most of Chinas high value trade is still with western nations. Despite the tension it isn’t going to give that up and replace it with the Russians or the South Africans, a basket case of a country that can barely feed its population or keep the lights on.
As has been mentioned, whilst the countries sanctioning Putin make up a a fraction of the world’s population, they’re a majority of the worlds economy which is much more important in the context of the article than sheer numbers.
All in all the article seems to have cherry picked a few stats in order to fit a predetermined narrative rather than being an objective look at the geopolitical situation arising from the conflict
China is the big winner of this perpetual proxy war between Russia and the West in Ukraine.
Russia is rapidly destroying both blood and treasure in the war as well as now being a pariah within the financial centers of the West (which, incidentally, froze the country’s and leaders’ assets within various financial institutions). This will ensure Russia’s near-term demotion into a second-tier vassal state that must inevitably do China’s bidding to survive in the short-to-medium term.
The West is slowly depleting both treasure and its stockpiled matériel against Russia in this war which is, most assuredly, in China’s favor.
And the fixation on this proxy war between Russia and the West is allowing China to quietly carry on with their business of collecting countries like trading cards via China’s prized ‘business investments’ in those countries coupled with under-the-table payoff of their government officials to ensure a smooth transition away from the West’s…
…wait a minute…how many millions of dollars did Joe Biden and his family secretly receive from China over the past eight to 10 years according to the newly-released records by the US Treasury Department? Something is rotten in Biden’s $2.7m Delaware Beach House purchased and modified on a civil servant’s and community college teacher’s salary.
Ukraine was widely said to be the Clinton, Obama, and Biden piggy bank.
per person GDP
USA $70,000
UK $45,000
Ukraine $4,500
Ukraine has resources, education, industry, agriculture – is surrounded by wealthy trading partners – but is one of the poorest Nations on Earth! Ever wonder why? Because they are the World’s 14th most corrupt nation! When you back Zelenski you back the Mafia who kept Ukraine dirt poor wile deep in wealth. Hunter ring a bell? Do you wonder where the $113 Billion went? because no one in the Democrat, or Rino, parties do………(remember FTX? Burisma, and you can be sure, SVB…that bail out is pretty odd…)
You conveniently forget to mention that Russia is even more corrupt than Ukraine:
–Ukraine is at 116 down the list
–Russia is at 137 from the top
But you knew that already.
Moreover, Russia has destroyed its own army in Ukraine–the only thing that made it a great power–besides the nuclear weapons it can never use.
But maybe Hunter Biden did all this to Russia?
If so, he seems even more competent than his Dad.
Have you read any Ukrainian history? To answer your question, because it was an ex Communist country like Russia and huge power was seized by oligarchs during the naïve (and likely cynical) botched transition to private rather than state enterprise. The Ukrainians have been painfully and slowly addressing that, improving governance, have reasonably free elections etc. Russia tragically has gone in the opposite direction.
Yanukovych of course was one of its most deeply corrupt presidents – his ousting in 2014 (after a popular uprising) is of course attacked by the pro Putin Right who want it both ways on this issue! Whatever, the fact there is corruption in Ukraine doesn’t give Russia a justification for a full scale invasion. Poland had an undemocratic nationalist government in 1939, less than perfect in its treatment of minorities, which didn’t justify Hitlers’s invasion then.
Unfortunately your interventions are entirely dominated by the US culture war and polarisation, and while interesting enough isn’t the whole of reality – some of us would really like to talk about something else some time. Could you ever try to do so?
Unfortunately, history is prone to interpretation. Any argument based on history misses the real time – now. Look at Northern Ireland. Every day new history appeared. The latest bomb was because of history – that is, yesterday’s bomb.
Of course, corruption in the US is just as bad. Just a different type of corruption. More sophisticated corruption.
Obviously buddy has never experienced the corruption that goes on in a dictatorship. Unfortunately, that doesn’t stop him from spewing.
Obviously buddy has never experienced the corruption that goes on in a dictatorship. Unfortunately, that doesn’t stop him from spewing.
I’d emphasize the “resource curse”. Very few petrostates (Norway, Canada) keep corruption in check. Russia may simply be doomed. Ukrainians, surrounded by ex-communist states, understandably want Ukraine to be more like Poland and less like Russia.
Unfortunately, history is prone to interpretation. Any argument based on history misses the real time – now. Look at Northern Ireland. Every day new history appeared. The latest bomb was because of history – that is, yesterday’s bomb.
Of course, corruption in the US is just as bad. Just a different type of corruption. More sophisticated corruption.
I’d emphasize the “resource curse”. Very few petrostates (Norway, Canada) keep corruption in check. Russia may simply be doomed. Ukrainians, surrounded by ex-communist states, understandably want Ukraine to be more like Poland and less like Russia.
Oh shut up already. Repeating the same crap over and over again doesn’t make it any more factual or sane.
You do know you sound paranoid, don’t you?
He sounds angry at the world. There can only be one view -his view.
He sounds angry at the world. There can only be one view -his view.
You conveniently forget to mention that Russia is even more corrupt than Ukraine:
–Ukraine is at 116 down the list
–Russia is at 137 from the top
But you knew that already.
Moreover, Russia has destroyed its own army in Ukraine–the only thing that made it a great power–besides the nuclear weapons it can never use.
But maybe Hunter Biden did all this to Russia?
If so, he seems even more competent than his Dad.
Have you read any Ukrainian history? To answer your question, because it was an ex Communist country like Russia and huge power was seized by oligarchs during the naïve (and likely cynical) botched transition to private rather than state enterprise. The Ukrainians have been painfully and slowly addressing that, improving governance, have reasonably free elections etc. Russia tragically has gone in the opposite direction.
Yanukovych of course was one of its most deeply corrupt presidents – his ousting in 2014 (after a popular uprising) is of course attacked by the pro Putin Right who want it both ways on this issue! Whatever, the fact there is corruption in Ukraine doesn’t give Russia a justification for a full scale invasion. Poland had an undemocratic nationalist government in 1939, less than perfect in its treatment of minorities, which didn’t justify Hitlers’s invasion then.
Unfortunately your interventions are entirely dominated by the US culture war and polarisation, and while interesting enough isn’t the whole of reality – some of us would really like to talk about something else some time. Could you ever try to do so?
Oh shut up already. Repeating the same crap over and over again doesn’t make it any more factual or sane.
You do know you sound paranoid, don’t you?
Obsessed with US internal polarisation! What has this to do with whether we allow Vladimir Putin to conquer Ukraine?
How are you planning to stop him? Many generations have grown up with John Wayne riding into the picture just before the heroine meets a fate worse than death.
The ONLY real anti-Putin hope is that Biden puts on his cowboy hat. But he wouldn’t even be able to get on the horse. (And it would probably be stopped because of cruelty to the horse).
The US is in such a state internally that it is powerless. And wait another year until we get the battle between Mr Geriatric and Mr Orange. Then the Ukraine will be forgotten and the conversation will morph into ‘Defund the Police’ or ‘Give the Police bigger guns’.
Er, I think we’ve been stopping him for some 9 months. Indeed, pushing him back quite bit in other places.
Do you have access to things like radio, the internet and television?
Er, I think we’ve been stopping him for some 9 months. Indeed, pushing him back quite bit in other places.
Do you have access to things like radio, the internet and television?
How are you planning to stop him? Many generations have grown up with John Wayne riding into the picture just before the heroine meets a fate worse than death.
The ONLY real anti-Putin hope is that Biden puts on his cowboy hat. But he wouldn’t even be able to get on the horse. (And it would probably be stopped because of cruelty to the horse).
The US is in such a state internally that it is powerless. And wait another year until we get the battle between Mr Geriatric and Mr Orange. Then the Ukraine will be forgotten and the conversation will morph into ‘Defund the Police’ or ‘Give the Police bigger guns’.
Because it has vast natural wealth and has, by far, the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, Russia will never become a vassal state to China in the way that the pathetic obsequious UK is to the USA.
BTW it’s not just the UK.
There are no real sovereign states in Europe now – we are all mere pawns to US hegemony.
We have learnt nothing from the last 60 yrs of ‘Pax’ Americana . As Henry Kissenger said: ‘To be an enemy of the US can be dangerous but to be a friend is fatal’.
Europe will pay an enormous price in blood and treasure for being a ‘friend’ of the USofA.
When I see “U.S. hegemony” I know the commenter is a propagandist without knowledge or insight. I’ve been hearing this “we are all pawns” crap my entire adult life. It was BS then, and remains so.
Why do you think we joined the invasion of Iraq?
Who’s “we”? I’m Canadian, or what you would call a citizen of a client-state. Yet somehow we managed to avoid the Iraq War without getting a spanking from our hegemon across the border.
Who’s “we”? I’m Canadian, or what you would call a citizen of a client-state. Yet somehow we managed to avoid the Iraq War without getting a spanking from our hegemon across the border.
Why do you think we joined the invasion of Iraq?
Yes, Europe has certainly fallen very far since the end of WWII because of its strong connection with, and aid from, the U.S. This could give “dumb and dumber” a run for its money.
When I see “U.S. hegemony” I know the commenter is a propagandist without knowledge or insight. I’ve been hearing this “we are all pawns” crap my entire adult life. It was BS then, and remains so.
Yes, Europe has certainly fallen very far since the end of WWII because of its strong connection with, and aid from, the U.S. This could give “dumb and dumber” a run for its money.
Ukraine was widely said to be the Clinton, Obama, and Biden piggy bank.
per person GDP
USA $70,000
UK $45,000
Ukraine $4,500
Ukraine has resources, education, industry, agriculture – is surrounded by wealthy trading partners – but is one of the poorest Nations on Earth! Ever wonder why? Because they are the World’s 14th most corrupt nation! When you back Zelenski you back the Mafia who kept Ukraine dirt poor wile deep in wealth. Hunter ring a bell? Do you wonder where the $113 Billion went? because no one in the Democrat, or Rino, parties do………(remember FTX? Burisma, and you can be sure, SVB…that bail out is pretty odd…)
Obsessed with US internal polarisation! What has this to do with whether we allow Vladimir Putin to conquer Ukraine?
Because it has vast natural wealth and has, by far, the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, Russia will never become a vassal state to China in the way that the pathetic obsequious UK is to the USA.
BTW it’s not just the UK.
There are no real sovereign states in Europe now – we are all mere pawns to US hegemony.
We have learnt nothing from the last 60 yrs of ‘Pax’ Americana . As Henry Kissenger said: ‘To be an enemy of the US can be dangerous but to be a friend is fatal’.
Europe will pay an enormous price in blood and treasure for being a ‘friend’ of the USofA.
China is the big winner of this perpetual proxy war between Russia and the West in Ukraine.
Russia is rapidly destroying both blood and treasure in the war as well as now being a pariah within the financial centers of the West (which, incidentally, froze the country’s and leaders’ assets within various financial institutions). This will ensure Russia’s near-term demotion into a second-tier vassal state that must inevitably do China’s bidding to survive in the short-to-medium term.
The West is slowly depleting both treasure and its stockpiled matériel against Russia in this war which is, most assuredly, in China’s favor.
And the fixation on this proxy war between Russia and the West is allowing China to quietly carry on with their business of collecting countries like trading cards via China’s prized ‘business investments’ in those countries coupled with under-the-table payoff of their government officials to ensure a smooth transition away from the West’s…
…wait a minute…how many millions of dollars did Joe Biden and his family secretly receive from China over the past eight to 10 years according to the newly-released records by the US Treasury Department? Something is rotten in Biden’s $2.7m Delaware Beach House purchased and modified on a civil servant’s and community college teacher’s salary.
This is a great article to put things in context and Fazi is one of my favourite authors on Unherd. This context is important, without having heard of it, it’s virtually impossible to understand what’s happening in the world for anyone.
There’s something of a starvation of information in the Western world. A great case in example is the invasion of Iraq. Perhaps a day of watching regular Turkish TV could’ve dispelled someone from the notion that Iraq war was about anything but access to oil. Yet it seems it’s taken 20 years for a respectable (yet not mainstream) publishers like Unherd to feel comfortable enough to start discussing it openly.
It’s telling to see how uncomfortable Alastair Campbell looks when talking about Iraq unable to say the things he clearly wants to say but can’t. So why don’t politicians tell it as it is?
I tie it to the idealistic nature of the liberal Western system we live in (in particular American exceptionalism) and its historical baggage. What possible justification can someone give to invading another country? A Communist Russia or China could declare openly they want to export their brand of ideology to rescue workers of other countries. Nationalist Russia today open talks about retaining super-power status and wanting to control its backyard. Going further back Ottoman Empire wanted to expand the world of Islam, the Crusaders wanted to liberate Jerusalem. Yet a liberal West with a (deservedly) much maligned colonial past is hesitant to export anything.
This seems to be creating a cognitive dissonance situation in any Western leader. They need to be upholding pristine ideals when talking publicly, yet conduct business and international relations in the dirty real world. The information is out there, easily accessible, say on Turkish TV, but how does it remain an unrespectable “conspiracy theory” for the general Western public for 20 years? It clearly requires a well developed alignment across publishers of information – aka propaganda you might say.
Then here we are. There’s a generation of young people who have never been told about anything but pristine ideals being raised up on liberal ideological purity. We recognise them as the Woke today. A select few of them are expected to take up cognitive dissonance to conduct the dirty real world business on behalf of others while copiously virtue signalling. A great many are revolting against perceived impurities of the society they live in, burning down city centres tearing down shop fronts when they can in some of the wealthiest parts of the West.
As late as 30 years ago, new legislation in Britain was banning schools from promoting acceptability of homosexuality. Today’s youngters brought up in ideological purity are demonstrating against reaction of Qatar to rainbow flags in the football cup. BBC has been hunting down organisations not sufficiently supporting the Pride events. Putin is quoted as saying the West sank down in morality where the terms “mother and father” are replaced by parent 1 and 2. Saudi Arabia is banning the variety of children’s toys clad in rainbow colours. The contrast is clear, and the list goes on.
This is the context to the decoupling of the American West to the rest of the world as I see it. I don’t see it getting much better as long as there’s no acceptance in the West to see the world as it is instead of how they want to see it.
Fully agreed, with both the article and your comment.
Well said sir !
Fully agreed, with both the article and your comment.
Well said sir !
This is a great article to put things in context and Fazi is one of my favourite authors on Unherd. This context is important, without having heard of it, it’s virtually impossible to understand what’s happening in the world for anyone.
There’s something of a starvation of information in the Western world. A great case in example is the invasion of Iraq. Perhaps a day of watching regular Turkish TV could’ve dispelled someone from the notion that Iraq war was about anything but access to oil. Yet it seems it’s taken 20 years for a respectable (yet not mainstream) publishers like Unherd to feel comfortable enough to start discussing it openly.
It’s telling to see how uncomfortable Alastair Campbell looks when talking about Iraq unable to say the things he clearly wants to say but can’t. So why don’t politicians tell it as it is?
I tie it to the idealistic nature of the liberal Western system we live in (in particular American exceptionalism) and its historical baggage. What possible justification can someone give to invading another country? A Communist Russia or China could declare openly they want to export their brand of ideology to rescue workers of other countries. Nationalist Russia today open talks about retaining super-power status and wanting to control its backyard. Going further back Ottoman Empire wanted to expand the world of Islam, the Crusaders wanted to liberate Jerusalem. Yet a liberal West with a (deservedly) much maligned colonial past is hesitant to export anything.
This seems to be creating a cognitive dissonance situation in any Western leader. They need to be upholding pristine ideals when talking publicly, yet conduct business and international relations in the dirty real world. The information is out there, easily accessible, say on Turkish TV, but how does it remain an unrespectable “conspiracy theory” for the general Western public for 20 years? It clearly requires a well developed alignment across publishers of information – aka propaganda you might say.
Then here we are. There’s a generation of young people who have never been told about anything but pristine ideals being raised up on liberal ideological purity. We recognise them as the Woke today. A select few of them are expected to take up cognitive dissonance to conduct the dirty real world business on behalf of others while copiously virtue signalling. A great many are revolting against perceived impurities of the society they live in, burning down city centres tearing down shop fronts when they can in some of the wealthiest parts of the West.
As late as 30 years ago, new legislation in Britain was banning schools from promoting acceptability of homosexuality. Today’s youngters brought up in ideological purity are demonstrating against reaction of Qatar to rainbow flags in the football cup. BBC has been hunting down organisations not sufficiently supporting the Pride events. Putin is quoted as saying the West sank down in morality where the terms “mother and father” are replaced by parent 1 and 2. Saudi Arabia is banning the variety of children’s toys clad in rainbow colours. The contrast is clear, and the list goes on.
This is the context to the decoupling of the American West to the rest of the world as I see it. I don’t see it getting much better as long as there’s no acceptance in the West to see the world as it is instead of how they want to see it.
The author makes the fundamental mistake of counting by population. The US, NATO, and our Pacific allies have 50% of the world’s GDP and way more than 50% of the military power. Population is virtually meaningless in 2023. Having hundreds of millions of subsistence level mouths to feed is a burden for a country in wartime, not a strength.
The West may be one pole in a multi-polar world, but it’s one pole that’s stronger than all the others. Since the Western powers are now energy self-sufficient, they could form an economic trade block and leave the rest of the world in their dust.
The author is discussing the eroding influence of the US across world. He’s not comparing the GDP of one block vs the next, or the military might of each. The US needs to get its house in order or its influence will fade even more.
And how is the west energy self sufficient? We still buy a lot of oil from the Middle East.
It is self-sufficient from Russian gas now.
Putin’s own-goal.
Utter rubbish. Many countries in Europe are still buying Russian energy – but from middlemen at inflated prices.
Which Russia is selling at reduced prices. Even last year, Rusoil had a precipitous fall in profits.
Great business model there, Vova!
Which Russia is selling at reduced prices. Even last year, Rusoil had a precipitous fall in profits.
Great business model there, Vova!
Utter rubbish. Many countries in Europe are still buying Russian energy – but from middlemen at inflated prices.
The US was self sufficient before Biden and could return that way again.
Also all those countries and particularly China and India aren’t self sufficient either. The ME isn’t really against the US (accept obviously Iran and it’s proxies) just not for it. From here on in it depends how the “west” plays its cards. The “west” wants everyone to move from fossil fuels but all those countries (including China) want the “west” to pay for it ….
I’d be very surprised to learn that any Muslim countries of North Africa, the Near East, The Middle East, or South Asia have a favorable opinion of the U.S.
Those countries need to worry more about how other countries view them.
Why? So that they agree with you?
No, so they can improve the lot of their sorry citizenry and make positive contributions that benefit their own people and the rest of the world, instead of being the stagnant places they currently are.
No, so they can improve the lot of their sorry citizenry and make positive contributions that benefit their own people and the rest of the world, instead of being the stagnant places they currently are.
I think they have demonstrated they do not give a t*ss
And look where it’s gotten them to date.
Not in the same sh*t we are
No, in far far worse sh*t, based on any metric of human wealth, happiness or health. But hey, enjoy your stupid little bubble.
No, in far far worse sh*t, based on any metric of human wealth, happiness or health. But hey, enjoy your stupid little bubble.
Not in the same sh*t we are
And look where it’s gotten them to date.
Why? So that they agree with you?
I think they have demonstrated they do not give a t*ss
Those countries need to worry more about how other countries view them.
I’d be very surprised to learn that any Muslim countries of North Africa, the Near East, The Middle East, or South Asia have a favorable opinion of the U.S.
It is self-sufficient from Russian gas now.
Putin’s own-goal.
The US was self sufficient before Biden and could return that way again.
Also all those countries and particularly China and India aren’t self sufficient either. The ME isn’t really against the US (accept obviously Iran and it’s proxies) just not for it. From here on in it depends how the “west” plays its cards. The “west” wants everyone to move from fossil fuels but all those countries (including China) want the “west” to pay for it ….
The British Empire also closed itself off at what was both its 20th century height and also its closing chapter. The British Empire faced strengthening overseas competitors, but assumed it was and would remain more powerful. And yet in a generation it had mostly been swept away. A new bipolar world was born and the preceding global powers weren’t one of them.
Fundamentally though, unlike the British Empire, the West isn’t as economically strong as the British Empire was. A Western trade block *isn’t* self sufficient in energy or materials or goods or capital. We overestimate our economic strength, seemingly blinded by consumption paid for by winding down our capital
What a bizarre statement.
Who wins in a fight between Luxembourg and Germany or between Monaco and France ? That population is taxpayers for revenue, workers for production, soldiers, sailors and airmen for fighting and administrators to control all of it. And they have to do that day after day month after month year after year.
No doubt weapons technology is a very important part of warfare but the next war will not be like the gunpowder empires of the age of discovery vs the native tribes. There is no weapon system that the West has that Russia and China don’t also have, or a very close analog. And Chinese production alone beats the USA and the EU combined.
How do you slice off “The West” from “The Rest” and keep the West running at anything close to the standard of living it now enjoys ? I think you’re wrong on energy imports but even without that, are all the raw materials needed to keep production at current levels to be found within the West’s borders ? What if some nation didn’t want to be kept exclusively within the Western autarky ? clearly it would be better to deal with 2 bidders rather than just one, what will happen then ? Will they be forced to provide their resources by force of arms ?
I find the idea that the majority of the worlds population will be willing to take a major cut in pay to ensure the global pre-eminence of Washington to be preposterous.
There are some things that a man (or a nation of men) will absolutely fight to the death for. One is the freedom to do as they please within their own house, another is to ensure that the house has food on the table.
You left out the thing nations will fight for more than anything else: their sovereignty, when it’s threatened by other nations, i.e. when they’re invaded. Ukraine is a case in point, yet it’s being disparaged, and aiding it is being discouraged. Wrong and stupid.
Not wrong or stupid. The fate of Ukraine is not in our national strategic interest. Domino theory does not apply here. Like I said before, it’s in your backyard so if you’re so gung-ho about defending Ukraine do it yourself and make sure you put your children on the front lines.
The short-termism you display is really quite sad.
The short-termism you display is really quite sad.
Not wrong or stupid. The fate of Ukraine is not in our national strategic interest. Domino theory does not apply here. Like I said before, it’s in your backyard so if you’re so gung-ho about defending Ukraine do it yourself and make sure you put your children on the front lines.
You left out the thing nations will fight for more than anything else: their sovereignty, when it’s threatened by other nations, i.e. when they’re invaded. Ukraine is a case in point, yet it’s being disparaged, and aiding it is being discouraged. Wrong and stupid.
And these poor countries tend to be far from the conflict, with understandably more practical priorities (though their poverty often results from Russia-like corruption and disrespect for human rights). Of course they’ll import Russian gas on the cheap. Funny that the author exalts Russian energy exports, when the “resource curse” is a major factor in Russia’s condition, and Russia’s pitiful manufacturing is declining further. Certainly no one is going to buy Russian weapons anymore.
Perhaps that’s why the Wagner Group have been experimenting with large groups of unskilled cannon fodder.
The author is discussing the eroding influence of the US across world. He’s not comparing the GDP of one block vs the next, or the military might of each. The US needs to get its house in order or its influence will fade even more.
And how is the west energy self sufficient? We still buy a lot of oil from the Middle East.
The British Empire also closed itself off at what was both its 20th century height and also its closing chapter. The British Empire faced strengthening overseas competitors, but assumed it was and would remain more powerful. And yet in a generation it had mostly been swept away. A new bipolar world was born and the preceding global powers weren’t one of them.
Fundamentally though, unlike the British Empire, the West isn’t as economically strong as the British Empire was. A Western trade block *isn’t* self sufficient in energy or materials or goods or capital. We overestimate our economic strength, seemingly blinded by consumption paid for by winding down our capital
What a bizarre statement.
Who wins in a fight between Luxembourg and Germany or between Monaco and France ? That population is taxpayers for revenue, workers for production, soldiers, sailors and airmen for fighting and administrators to control all of it. And they have to do that day after day month after month year after year.
No doubt weapons technology is a very important part of warfare but the next war will not be like the gunpowder empires of the age of discovery vs the native tribes. There is no weapon system that the West has that Russia and China don’t also have, or a very close analog. And Chinese production alone beats the USA and the EU combined.
How do you slice off “The West” from “The Rest” and keep the West running at anything close to the standard of living it now enjoys ? I think you’re wrong on energy imports but even without that, are all the raw materials needed to keep production at current levels to be found within the West’s borders ? What if some nation didn’t want to be kept exclusively within the Western autarky ? clearly it would be better to deal with 2 bidders rather than just one, what will happen then ? Will they be forced to provide their resources by force of arms ?
I find the idea that the majority of the worlds population will be willing to take a major cut in pay to ensure the global pre-eminence of Washington to be preposterous.
There are some things that a man (or a nation of men) will absolutely fight to the death for. One is the freedom to do as they please within their own house, another is to ensure that the house has food on the table.
And these poor countries tend to be far from the conflict, with understandably more practical priorities (though their poverty often results from Russia-like corruption and disrespect for human rights). Of course they’ll import Russian gas on the cheap. Funny that the author exalts Russian energy exports, when the “resource curse” is a major factor in Russia’s condition, and Russia’s pitiful manufacturing is declining further. Certainly no one is going to buy Russian weapons anymore.
Perhaps that’s why the Wagner Group have been experimenting with large groups of unskilled cannon fodder.
The author makes the fundamental mistake of counting by population. The US, NATO, and our Pacific allies have 50% of the world’s GDP and way more than 50% of the military power. Population is virtually meaningless in 2023. Having hundreds of millions of subsistence level mouths to feed is a burden for a country in wartime, not a strength.
The West may be one pole in a multi-polar world, but it’s one pole that’s stronger than all the others. Since the Western powers are now energy self-sufficient, they could form an economic trade block and leave the rest of the world in their dust.
Fazi is correct that there is an ideological battle underway and a new Cold War. It’s just he’s on the wrong side and his dislike of all things US clouds every article he writes. If he spent some time trying to practice his profession in Xi or Putin’s backyard he might develop a more rounded perspective. That doesn’t mean no critique of western policies but the warped one sided view he often conveys little better than what the FSB or MSS would hope to convey.
The reason countries ‘project’ there own failings onto the West/USA is because they recognise the West has conscience and the capability to actually respond to that narrative. It’s also often an admission of how these places have drifted backwards in democratic ideals – for goodness sake they can’t even keep the lights on in S Africa because they’ve had a one party system for 30yrs.
Yes, I don’t understand the significance assigned to SA participating in “war exercises”. Should we tremble over that huge development? Hasn’t that country slipped into the abyss?
Yes, I don’t understand the significance assigned to SA participating in “war exercises”. Should we tremble over that huge development? Hasn’t that country slipped into the abyss?
Fazi is correct that there is an ideological battle underway and a new Cold War. It’s just he’s on the wrong side and his dislike of all things US clouds every article he writes. If he spent some time trying to practice his profession in Xi or Putin’s backyard he might develop a more rounded perspective. That doesn’t mean no critique of western policies but the warped one sided view he often conveys little better than what the FSB or MSS would hope to convey.
The reason countries ‘project’ there own failings onto the West/USA is because they recognise the West has conscience and the capability to actually respond to that narrative. It’s also often an admission of how these places have drifted backwards in democratic ideals – for goodness sake they can’t even keep the lights on in S Africa because they’ve had a one party system for 30yrs.
I retract any snark I may have posted about this article, I may have been biased against it but the author has totally convinced me I was l in the wrong once he brought out the big guns, because look, he quoted Clement Manyathela, and I mean, if Clement has pronounced, it’s as good as game over isn’t it, it’s virtually unarguable like a mathematical proof.
Prash, we always appreciate any snark you post, you do it in a very subdued and British way – not like my BOLD and Capitalizing, and F_c*ing!!! exclamation marks….
But, you see that if everything has exclamation marks, it’s the same as nothing having exclamation marks. And by the time you wade through the marks you get bored.
Much the same as swearing in a comic routine – occasionally for emphasis and comic effect, routinely makes it very annoying!!
You could get creative and adopt the Spanish ¡¡¡ inverted exclamation marks. ¡It makes any sentence feel more emphatic!¡¡! and it¡s eye catching too.
It might be about time for Elliot to be “Bjorn’ again under a slightly less bombastic on line personality – if that is possible. Actually this is his third ? nom de plume -and he might be getting worse….was quite entertaining the first time around !
Much the same as swearing in a comic routine – occasionally for emphasis and comic effect, routinely makes it very annoying!!
You could get creative and adopt the Spanish ¡¡¡ inverted exclamation marks. ¡It makes any sentence feel more emphatic!¡¡! and it¡s eye catching too.
It might be about time for Elliot to be “Bjorn’ again under a slightly less bombastic on line personality – if that is possible. Actually this is his third ? nom de plume -and he might be getting worse….was quite entertaining the first time around !
But, you see that if everything has exclamation marks, it’s the same as nothing having exclamation marks. And by the time you wade through the marks you get bored.
Prash, we always appreciate any snark you post, you do it in a very subdued and British way – not like my BOLD and Capitalizing, and F_c*ing!!! exclamation marks….
I retract any snark I may have posted about this article, I may have been biased against it but the author has totally convinced me I was l in the wrong once he brought out the big guns, because look, he quoted Clement Manyathela, and I mean, if Clement has pronounced, it’s as good as game over isn’t it, it’s virtually unarguable like a mathematical proof.
I think that people in all those countries at present not supporting the West would readily live in a Western country than in Russia or China!
The author seems to have confused African, Asian and South American nations not wanting to get involved in a conflict on a different continent with full throated support for Putins invasion
One telling metric is the number of foreign fighters travelling to Ukraine on both sides.
People have come from all over the West and elsewhere to help Ukrainians in their tens of thousands.
Some have also come to help Russia – true – but an inconsequential number from countries Thomas has extrapolated are suddenly Pro-Putin, Pro-China diehards.
It might suggest that support for a China/Russia dominated World order is not that popular. As others here have pointed out, it’s one thing not vocally and materially supporting Ukraine, another thing entirely to suggest that therefore everyone else supports Russia and China
One telling metric is the number of foreign fighters travelling to Ukraine on both sides.
People have come from all over the West and elsewhere to help Ukrainians in their tens of thousands.
Some have also come to help Russia – true – but an inconsequential number from countries Thomas has extrapolated are suddenly Pro-Putin, Pro-China diehards.
It might suggest that support for a China/Russia dominated World order is not that popular. As others here have pointed out, it’s one thing not vocally and materially supporting Ukraine, another thing entirely to suggest that therefore everyone else supports Russia and China
The author seems to have confused African, Asian and South American nations not wanting to get involved in a conflict on a different continent with full throated support for Putins invasion
I think that people in all those countries at present not supporting the West would readily live in a Western country than in Russia or China!
So, Mr. Fazi, you are more or less saying the world is falling back into its pre-1989 ‘spheres of influence’ when many developing / post-colonial nations supported the USSR? You also fail to mention China’s colonial role in Africa, supported only by the kleptocracies in charge.
Look, Thomas is of the reflexively anti-Western Euro Left, one which would like to stick it’s fingers in it’s ears and shout la-la-la while China and Russia do their thing. Why not just say so?
So, Mr. Fazi, you are more or less saying the world is falling back into its pre-1989 ‘spheres of influence’ when many developing / post-colonial nations supported the USSR? You also fail to mention China’s colonial role in Africa, supported only by the kleptocracies in charge.
Look, Thomas is of the reflexively anti-Western Euro Left, one which would like to stick it’s fingers in it’s ears and shout la-la-la while China and Russia do their thing. Why not just say so?
Huh, you know I seem to recall everyone who voiced this opinion in the last year was denounced as a “Putin puppet”. The 20th anniversary of the 2nd Iraq War is a beautifully ironic bonus to this mess.
Actually, they were also saying that Putin wouldn’t invade, because he couldn’t succeed.
They seem to have been right.
The U.S. invaded Iraq. Think of that what you will, but it hasn’t invaded Ukraine. Putin did.
The US lost its hegemony because it invaded Iraq.
Ergo, Russia will gain its hegemony by invading Ukraine.
The US lost its hegemony because it invaded Iraq.
Ergo, Russia will gain its hegemony by invading Ukraine.
Actually, they were also saying that Putin wouldn’t invade, because he couldn’t succeed.
They seem to have been right.
The U.S. invaded Iraq. Think of that what you will, but it hasn’t invaded Ukraine. Putin did.
Huh, you know I seem to recall everyone who voiced this opinion in the last year was denounced as a “Putin puppet”. The 20th anniversary of the 2nd Iraq War is a beautifully ironic bonus to this mess.
“…imposed sanctions on Russia and sent military aid to Ukraine: the UK, US, Canada, Britain, Australia, South Korea, Japan and the EU…”
It’s good to know both the UK and Britain have provided aid to Ukraine. I would however caution any readers that they might want to reconsider if they were, perchance, thinking of employing the author in an accountancy capacity because basic accuracy doesn’t seem to be his strong suit, and you know, double-counting doesn’t always go down too well with the tax authorities.
The old Britain/United Kingdom thing again……You do know they are not the same? haha…saying them both is not repeating yourself……technically…
The article was wrong to say Britain and the UK. The others are just teasing you. For reference, the one Americans get wrong is between England and the UK. People from England get this wrong as well.
I grew up with England,Scotland and Wales, the rest was referred to as the continent.
I worked for many years for a US company – redneck country. First question, “Where exactly are you from?” Wales. “That’s in the west of England, right?”
I grew up with England,Scotland and Wales, the rest was referred to as the continent.
I worked for many years for a US company – redneck country. First question, “Where exactly are you from?” Wales. “That’s in the west of England, right?”
All I want to say about this idiocy is that there’s a much larger “starvation of information” in Russia and China.
The article was wrong to say Britain and the UK. The others are just teasing you. For reference, the one Americans get wrong is between England and the UK. People from England get this wrong as well.
All I want to say about this idiocy is that there’s a much larger “starvation of information” in Russia and China.
But I heard that Britain hadn’t provided as many tanks as the UK.
True?
Absolutely! The UK is a pretty reliable and faithfull ally, but Britain is a total freeloader.
I knew it!
Americans always knew what “the British are coming!” meant.
Thank God there is the UK to keep us safe from those awful British!
I knew it!
Americans always knew what “the British are coming!” meant.
Thank God there is the UK to keep us safe from those awful British!
Absolutely! The UK is a pretty reliable and faithfull ally, but Britain is a total freeloader.
Besides double-counting the UK, the author omitted non-EU Norway and Switzerland. Even Serbia has recently voiced some unkind words toward Russia.
The describes these countries as “directly under the US sphere of influence”, but one might also characterize them as rich, democratic, and worried about the threat from Russia and/or China. The US and UK signed the Budapest Memorandum–it’s quite understandable that poor countries far from the conflict have other priorities.
Me, I’ll trust the Finns on this one.
The Finns, the Swedes, the Poles and the Baltics.
“Ths sphere…the sphere!
The dreaded sphere!”
Searching the web reveals a surprising number of dreaded spheres, but Captain Isotope seems most likely and is now on my radar (or rather long-range scanners).
Searching the web reveals a surprising number of dreaded spheres, but Captain Isotope seems most likely and is now on my radar (or rather long-range scanners).
The Finns, the Swedes, the Poles and the Baltics.
“Ths sphere…the sphere!
The dreaded sphere!”
Touché for the bean-counters!
The old Britain/United Kingdom thing again……You do know they are not the same? haha…saying them both is not repeating yourself……technically…
But I heard that Britain hadn’t provided as many tanks as the UK.
True?
Besides double-counting the UK, the author omitted non-EU Norway and Switzerland. Even Serbia has recently voiced some unkind words toward Russia.
The describes these countries as “directly under the US sphere of influence”, but one might also characterize them as rich, democratic, and worried about the threat from Russia and/or China. The US and UK signed the Budapest Memorandum–it’s quite understandable that poor countries far from the conflict have other priorities.
Me, I’ll trust the Finns on this one.
Touché for the bean-counters!
“…imposed sanctions on Russia and sent military aid to Ukraine: the UK, US, Canada, Britain, Australia, South Korea, Japan and the EU…”
It’s good to know both the UK and Britain have provided aid to Ukraine. I would however caution any readers that they might want to reconsider if they were, perchance, thinking of employing the author in an accountancy capacity because basic accuracy doesn’t seem to be his strong suit, and you know, double-counting doesn’t always go down too well with the tax authorities.
There is clearly quite a bit of truth in Thomas Fazi’s arguments, and indeed the West needs to sort out much of its own governance, polarisation and economic inequality and those kind of issues. Still I’d rather live here that I would in China or Russia and indeed it seems a lot of the world’s population think the same thing.
However we are often naïve when we talk about the the developing World in this slightly rose-tinted way. I’m reminded of attending a film recently at the London film festival wear where about the Ugandan musician and activist and politician Bobi Wine in which the exiled Ugandans in the audience were begging Britain not to give £50 bn to Uganda for roads projects because to quote “the money will be stolen”.
So these are some of the countries that of course don’t care one way or another about Russia and Ukraine because their politicians cynically maintain power using corruption, repression and violence at every turn. They aren’t all that bothered about their own citizens’ welfare, let alone those of another distant country.
I can’t expect India to severely damage its economy by turning down oil supplies from Russia. I’m not even sure I object to China brokering a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Clearly whatever we think of the government in China it’s going to be with us for a long time and we have to exist on the same planet. However the loss of Taiwan just on pure social welfare grounds would be an absolute tragedy for humanity. Here is a thriving democratic society very like South Korea that was protected from communist aggression by Western intervention.
There simply isn’t a comparison between recent Western “aggression” and Russian, however disastrous some of the former policies may have been, even in their own terms, and how cynical some of the manipulations were in getting public support for them as in Iraq war. Western countries were not intending to conquer other countries. People like Tony Blair, endlessly excoriated today, George W Bush and the neocons actually believed that liberal democracy and freely chosen governments of those peoples would be a good outcome in itself and probably help make those countries friendly allies and associates of the West. When you look at the post World War 2 histories Western Europe, Japan, South Korea Australasia and North America, are their views entirely misguided?
The west fundamentally has had a “progressive” attitude to the world – for good and ill – and endlessly has an itch to make the world a “better place”. this includes many of its citizens who give to charity, campaign etc. The ‘woke’ are an extreme and probably malevolent demonstration of this tendency, but liberals and even conservatives are not immune from this tendency. I think the extent that the west can successfully do this has been proved to be limited, especially in countries like Afghanistan and that we should be much less hubristic. And short-term military attacks are very unlikely to achieve the desired ends; to do so would probably require rebuilding the British or American empires and long-term intervention over say 100 years which simply isn’t going to happen. Let’s also learn lessons about former great powers feel humiliated like Russia after the collapse of the Cold War.
But Thomas Fazi’s writings on foreign affairs often seem to be dominated by his own political disagreements with its domestic direction of travel (as so many others’ also are). He objects to the West’s arming the Ukraine. The adoption of this policy would lead fairly quickly to Ukrainian collapse and conquest by Russia. Would Yoweri Museveni of Uganda or the cynical leaders of Saudi Arabia or Iran care about this – no they wouldn’t. Apart from anything else they wouldn’t be taking any of the millions of refugees who would be leaving that country. However whatever the faults of recent Western policies towards Russia, that would be a complete disaster for 40 million people in Ukraine or most of them – and indeed for the future stability and peace in Eastern Europe.
Any “deal” or agreement made with Iran is completely a waste of time. Have they ever lived up to anything agreed to in the last 2000 years? How many “peace agreements” have been made in the Middle East during the last 40 years? Yet no peace.
Any “deal” or agreement made with Iran is completely a waste of time. Have they ever lived up to anything agreed to in the last 2000 years? How many “peace agreements” have been made in the Middle East during the last 40 years? Yet no peace.
There is clearly quite a bit of truth in Thomas Fazi’s arguments, and indeed the West needs to sort out much of its own governance, polarisation and economic inequality and those kind of issues. Still I’d rather live here that I would in China or Russia and indeed it seems a lot of the world’s population think the same thing.
However we are often naïve when we talk about the the developing World in this slightly rose-tinted way. I’m reminded of attending a film recently at the London film festival wear where about the Ugandan musician and activist and politician Bobi Wine in which the exiled Ugandans in the audience were begging Britain not to give £50 bn to Uganda for roads projects because to quote “the money will be stolen”.
So these are some of the countries that of course don’t care one way or another about Russia and Ukraine because their politicians cynically maintain power using corruption, repression and violence at every turn. They aren’t all that bothered about their own citizens’ welfare, let alone those of another distant country.
I can’t expect India to severely damage its economy by turning down oil supplies from Russia. I’m not even sure I object to China brokering a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Clearly whatever we think of the government in China it’s going to be with us for a long time and we have to exist on the same planet. However the loss of Taiwan just on pure social welfare grounds would be an absolute tragedy for humanity. Here is a thriving democratic society very like South Korea that was protected from communist aggression by Western intervention.
There simply isn’t a comparison between recent Western “aggression” and Russian, however disastrous some of the former policies may have been, even in their own terms, and how cynical some of the manipulations were in getting public support for them as in Iraq war. Western countries were not intending to conquer other countries. People like Tony Blair, endlessly excoriated today, George W Bush and the neocons actually believed that liberal democracy and freely chosen governments of those peoples would be a good outcome in itself and probably help make those countries friendly allies and associates of the West. When you look at the post World War 2 histories Western Europe, Japan, South Korea Australasia and North America, are their views entirely misguided?
The west fundamentally has had a “progressive” attitude to the world – for good and ill – and endlessly has an itch to make the world a “better place”. this includes many of its citizens who give to charity, campaign etc. The ‘woke’ are an extreme and probably malevolent demonstration of this tendency, but liberals and even conservatives are not immune from this tendency. I think the extent that the west can successfully do this has been proved to be limited, especially in countries like Afghanistan and that we should be much less hubristic. And short-term military attacks are very unlikely to achieve the desired ends; to do so would probably require rebuilding the British or American empires and long-term intervention over say 100 years which simply isn’t going to happen. Let’s also learn lessons about former great powers feel humiliated like Russia after the collapse of the Cold War.
But Thomas Fazi’s writings on foreign affairs often seem to be dominated by his own political disagreements with its domestic direction of travel (as so many others’ also are). He objects to the West’s arming the Ukraine. The adoption of this policy would lead fairly quickly to Ukrainian collapse and conquest by Russia. Would Yoweri Museveni of Uganda or the cynical leaders of Saudi Arabia or Iran care about this – no they wouldn’t. Apart from anything else they wouldn’t be taking any of the millions of refugees who would be leaving that country. However whatever the faults of recent Western policies towards Russia, that would be a complete disaster for 40 million people in Ukraine or most of them – and indeed for the future stability and peace in Eastern Europe.
While the author does raise some interesting ideas in this article, it’s clearly an opinion piece & therefore shouldn’t be taken as fact.
The statement towards the end that ‘Ukraine is taking heavy losses’ is evidence enough that he’s ignoring basic checkable facts. Yes Ukraine is obviously suffering losses. Every country at war does.
However to ignore the tens of thousands of Russian conscripts & prisoners that are literally being fed as fodder to their front line, shows the bias in his article.
Yes it’s fair to show that Russia & China will do business together (there’s always been countries who’ll ignore western sanctions fir their own benefit)
China will be very reluctant to get involved militarily with Russia while Putin is around. They’re no fools & know he’s a despot.
True. Despots recognize each other.
True. Despots recognize each other.
While the author does raise some interesting ideas in this article, it’s clearly an opinion piece & therefore shouldn’t be taken as fact.
The statement towards the end that ‘Ukraine is taking heavy losses’ is evidence enough that he’s ignoring basic checkable facts. Yes Ukraine is obviously suffering losses. Every country at war does.
However to ignore the tens of thousands of Russian conscripts & prisoners that are literally being fed as fodder to their front line, shows the bias in his article.
Yes it’s fair to show that Russia & China will do business together (there’s always been countries who’ll ignore western sanctions fir their own benefit)
China will be very reluctant to get involved militarily with Russia while Putin is around. They’re no fools & know he’s a despot.
Given the interdependence of the world today, Fazi’s idea that some “new bloc” would, or could, significantly change the world order is laughable.
Without genuine rule of law, most of these nations will remain poor, and prey to their own corrupt regimes.
Fazi conveniently forgets that all the BRICS (save Russia) are in places where global warming is taking its toll much more than in places like the US and Europe. Their use of Russian oil and gas only exacerbates their problems. Indeed, South Africa is so dysfunctional that it cannot even provide power the whole day.
There are exceptions: Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. But they have succeeded precisely because they follow the Western model.
Fazi is not alone of course. It has been a cherished dream since the early 1950s: “the third word”/”non-alligned nations”/”developing” world/BRICS et al will “overtake and surpass” the West.
This is usually bandied about the most when there is an economic slow-down in the West. Sadly, fact is: this usually damages non-western nations far more than the West itself.
Indeed, Russia’s tragedy is that, unlike Taiwan or Japan, it has never been able to integrate itself intellectually or economically into the West. The reason is simply: to do so would overturn so much of its culture that it would no longer be the Russia of Ivan the Dread, Peter the Great, Stalin, and now Putin.
But it is precisely this “Stalinist/Orthodox” mind-set that, each day, destroys Russia before our very eyes .
“… places where global warming is taking its toll much more than in places like….”
Sounds a bit oxymoronic.
“… places where global warming is taking its toll much more than in places like….”
Sounds a bit oxymoronic.
Given the interdependence of the world today, Fazi’s idea that some “new bloc” would, or could, significantly change the world order is laughable.
Without genuine rule of law, most of these nations will remain poor, and prey to their own corrupt regimes.
Fazi conveniently forgets that all the BRICS (save Russia) are in places where global warming is taking its toll much more than in places like the US and Europe. Their use of Russian oil and gas only exacerbates their problems. Indeed, South Africa is so dysfunctional that it cannot even provide power the whole day.
There are exceptions: Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. But they have succeeded precisely because they follow the Western model.
Fazi is not alone of course. It has been a cherished dream since the early 1950s: “the third word”/”non-alligned nations”/”developing” world/BRICS et al will “overtake and surpass” the West.
This is usually bandied about the most when there is an economic slow-down in the West. Sadly, fact is: this usually damages non-western nations far more than the West itself.
Indeed, Russia’s tragedy is that, unlike Taiwan or Japan, it has never been able to integrate itself intellectually or economically into the West. The reason is simply: to do so would overturn so much of its culture that it would no longer be the Russia of Ivan the Dread, Peter the Great, Stalin, and now Putin.
But it is precisely this “Stalinist/Orthodox” mind-set that, each day, destroys Russia before our very eyes .
Countries such as Kenya and SA are merely doing what they think is in their self-interest. That’s what we should be doing but instead we’re obsessing about pronouns.
All smaller, less powerful countries have to choose which of the big boys to cosy up to. It’s understandable that many are fed up with US interference and are looking to China. Of course, with our shared Western cultural heritage, we would prefer to be in America’s gang, rather than the Chinese – or Islamic – alternative. And we can see that Chinese influence will be just as, probably more, exploitative. But if we want to change the minds of the Kenyans and others like them, we’ll have to recognise, characterise and appeal to their own interests.
The demise of Western power is not inevitable but that’s the direction in which our liberal elite is currently sleepwalking.
Aiding Ukraine is in our self-interest. But I agree about the stupid pronouns, etc.
Aiding Ukraine is in our self-interest. But I agree about the stupid pronouns, etc.
Countries such as Kenya and SA are merely doing what they think is in their self-interest. That’s what we should be doing but instead we’re obsessing about pronouns.
All smaller, less powerful countries have to choose which of the big boys to cosy up to. It’s understandable that many are fed up with US interference and are looking to China. Of course, with our shared Western cultural heritage, we would prefer to be in America’s gang, rather than the Chinese – or Islamic – alternative. And we can see that Chinese influence will be just as, probably more, exploitative. But if we want to change the minds of the Kenyans and others like them, we’ll have to recognise, characterise and appeal to their own interests.
The demise of Western power is not inevitable but that’s the direction in which our liberal elite is currently sleepwalking.
Has anyone noticed, no one has ever seen Thomas Fazi and Philip Pilkington in the same room together. Prob’ly nothing, just sayin’.
This post is Lost on me – sorry.
He seems to be saying that they are the same person, just appearing in different identities. But since I don’t know who Pilkington is, it’s still a bit above my head.
He seems to be saying that they are the same person, just appearing in different identities. But since I don’t know who Pilkington is, it’s still a bit above my head.
This post is Lost on me – sorry.
Has anyone noticed, no one has ever seen Thomas Fazi and Philip Pilkington in the same room together. Prob’ly nothing, just sayin’.
For me this is simple. If we want to be fair in the world, it is simple. If we truly believe as a country that Russia is an aggressor against another free country, if we truly believe that Putin, as leader of Russia, is a war criminal – then we must prosecute Blair and Bush as war criminals. If we don’t prosecute Blair and Bush we lose the right to have a meaningful opinion in the world.
Change the record already.
Change the record already.
For me this is simple. If we want to be fair in the world, it is simple. If we truly believe as a country that Russia is an aggressor against another free country, if we truly believe that Putin, as leader of Russia, is a war criminal – then we must prosecute Blair and Bush as war criminals. If we don’t prosecute Blair and Bush we lose the right to have a meaningful opinion in the world.
Great article,this is unherd people,you know where alternative views and opinions can be heard.
Thank you Thomas for writing a more balanced article than the thinly veiled Ukraine propaganda that is so prevalent here
Great article,this is unherd people,you know where alternative views and opinions can be heard.
Thank you Thomas for writing a more balanced article than the thinly veiled Ukraine propaganda that is so prevalent here
How the world economy develops will largely take care of itself, but I think the author’s central point here is valid. The unease about US driven policy and claims to hold the moral high ground are real and present and make the West an easy target for Russia and China. It’s a bit like having a distant relative who wants to lecture you about morality, yet is trying to hit on your wife at the same time. A kind of Clintonesque world where we’re encouraged to do what the US says, not what it does. No one enjoys to be lectured, but that’s all the US has got, since it’s reputation for leading by example is in tatters.
How the world economy develops will largely take care of itself, but I think the author’s central point here is valid. The unease about US driven policy and claims to hold the moral high ground are real and present and make the West an easy target for Russia and China. It’s a bit like having a distant relative who wants to lecture you about morality, yet is trying to hit on your wife at the same time. A kind of Clintonesque world where we’re encouraged to do what the US says, not what it does. No one enjoys to be lectured, but that’s all the US has got, since it’s reputation for leading by example is in tatters.
More delusional nonsense from Fazi. The usual cherry picking of selected facts to attempt to support a pre-determined narrative. And a total failure to see the big picture as it actually is.
To take just one example, to assume that the rapidly failing state of South Africa is a reliable guide to what will happen in the future is absurd. The key thing that all the countries in Fazi’s supposed new order have in common is corruption. None of them are attracting inward migration (no one with a free choice wants to go to live and work in these countriues). They are all politically backward and – China excepted – technologically backward. And much of China’s technology has been copied from the West.
Why is this man still on the payroll ?
More delusional nonsense from Fazi. The usual cherry picking of selected facts to attempt to support a pre-determined narrative. And a total failure to see the big picture as it actually is.
To take just one example, to assume that the rapidly failing state of South Africa is a reliable guide to what will happen in the future is absurd. The key thing that all the countries in Fazi’s supposed new order have in common is corruption. None of them are attracting inward migration (no one with a free choice wants to go to live and work in these countriues). They are all politically backward and – China excepted – technologically backward. And much of China’s technology has been copied from the West.
Why is this man still on the payroll ?
My goodness the herded in UnHerd are in full copies mode today. Sand, head, buried comes to mind.
“How much evidence is required before it is clear that Western Civilization is empty of integrity, judgment, reason, morality, empathy, compassion, self-awareness, truth, empty of everything that Western Civilization once respected?
All that is left of the West is insouciance and unrestrained evil.”
~Paul Craig Roberts, former Undersecretary Of Treasury, Reagan Administration
Bit strong but today I can’t be bothered trying to dig their stupid heads out the sand. So have an up vote.
yes we’re all sheeple and you’re the clever all-seeing one. got it. But with regard to those qualities you list, the West is still far far ahead of any of its so-called competitors, namely China and/or Russia.
Bit strong but today I can’t be bothered trying to dig their stupid heads out the sand. So have an up vote.
yes we’re all sheeple and you’re the clever all-seeing one. got it. But with regard to those qualities you list, the West is still far far ahead of any of its so-called competitors, namely China and/or Russia.
My goodness the herded in UnHerd are in full copies mode today. Sand, head, buried comes to mind.
“How much evidence is required before it is clear that Western Civilization is empty of integrity, judgment, reason, morality, empathy, compassion, self-awareness, truth, empty of everything that Western Civilization once respected?
All that is left of the West is insouciance and unrestrained evil.”
~Paul Craig Roberts, former Undersecretary Of Treasury, Reagan Administration
The big reckoning will be whether or indeed when the West actively reduces its dependency upon Chinese manufacturing. China remains dependent upon the consumer markets of the west and it is going to take a lot for world’s population to see China as cool or the driver of fashionable consumerism. As regards India, ultimately it seems likely to maintain a non-aligned stance and unlike Pakistan or South Africa (which are economic and political basket cases with limited options) it is highly unlikely to allow itself to become dependent upon China. British imperialism will appear incredibly benign when compared to Chinese exploitation of those populous nations whose indebtedness to China already makes them unwilling to upset their major creditor. The relationship between most third world nations and China is essentially of a transactionary nature and it won’t take long for the world to realise that it is a one-sided affair.
The big reckoning will be whether or indeed when the West actively reduces its dependency upon Chinese manufacturing. China remains dependent upon the consumer markets of the west and it is going to take a lot for world’s population to see China as cool or the driver of fashionable consumerism. As regards India, ultimately it seems likely to maintain a non-aligned stance and unlike Pakistan or South Africa (which are economic and political basket cases with limited options) it is highly unlikely to allow itself to become dependent upon China. British imperialism will appear incredibly benign when compared to Chinese exploitation of those populous nations whose indebtedness to China already makes them unwilling to upset their major creditor. The relationship between most third world nations and China is essentially of a transactionary nature and it won’t take long for the world to realise that it is a one-sided affair.
Ahhh a Thomas Fazi article. I bet it’s another West-doing-badly-Russia-China-working-together-blah-blah topic. Rarely disappoints.
Why Russia’s Biggest Threat is Actually China – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iibs7buNwxQ
Ahhh a Thomas Fazi article. I bet it’s another West-doing-badly-Russia-China-working-together-blah-blah topic. Rarely disappoints.
Why Russia’s Biggest Threat is Actually China – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iibs7buNwxQ
The likelihood that the non-West is going to coalesce into some alternate bloc ignores the fact that, ideologically, the non-West is far less united than it was before the Soviet Union’s fall.
Back then, a good part of the world embraced some brand of “socialism.” The USSR could always claim that it, and most of the Third World, were marching toward a “socialist future,” although just what that was, was conveniently left undefined.
Today, with virtually every nation tied into a world-wide capitalist system, there is no coherent ideology around which Russia, China, and the rest can unite. They all embrace some form of capitalism, just like the US and Europe.
The only real difference is that Russia and China’s brand of capitalism is far more corrupt and arbitrary.
The likelihood that the non-West is going to coalesce into some alternate bloc ignores the fact that, ideologically, the non-West is far less united than it was before the Soviet Union’s fall.
Back then, a good part of the world embraced some brand of “socialism.” The USSR could always claim that it, and most of the Third World, were marching toward a “socialist future,” although just what that was, was conveniently left undefined.
Today, with virtually every nation tied into a world-wide capitalist system, there is no coherent ideology around which Russia, China, and the rest can unite. They all embrace some form of capitalism, just like the US and Europe.
The only real difference is that Russia and China’s brand of capitalism is far more corrupt and arbitrary.
This wouldn’t have happened if the west did continually shoot itself in the foot.
This wouldn’t have happened if the west did continually shoot itself in the foot.
Really interesting article something of which Unherd is gaining a reputation.
I enjoyed the fact based article and am not at all surprised of the prediction that The USA will – perhaps sooner than later – lose its first nation status.
This is all the more reason for UK/USA and their Allies (plus hopefully converted future allies – India?) should stick together.
NO! i do not mean to join (re-join!) some unelected dictator block but through an expanded and more inclusive NATO style organisation – club together against the forthcoming combined power of China and Russia.
China is a bully – ask any South China Sea country – Russia is a (toothless?) bully – see Ukraine. (Excepting Nuclear obviously) – there has to be a sensible balance of power. The USA is simply not capable of defending everything and nor should be be expected to.
This will be a very bitter pill for The USA to follow – but they must face the Truth. Sooner rather than later.
which is why Russia must be defeated in Ukraine… brought then into an alliance with the West. If Russia is successful, China is encouraged.
I would be very curious to know what you think the West would be willing and able to give Russia in order for such an alliance to happen.
Simple logic dictates that a new deal would have to be better than the old one. Much better in fact since the current Beijing-Moscow axis not only provides hundreds of billions of dollars in trade, military and diplomatic alignment but also security across their very long and sparsely populated border
I would be very curious to know what you think the West would be willing and able to give Russia in order for such an alliance to happen.
Simple logic dictates that a new deal would have to be better than the old one. Much better in fact since the current Beijing-Moscow axis not only provides hundreds of billions of dollars in trade, military and diplomatic alignment but also security across their very long and sparsely populated border
which is why Russia must be defeated in Ukraine… brought then into an alliance with the West. If Russia is successful, China is encouraged.
Really interesting article something of which Unherd is gaining a reputation.
I enjoyed the fact based article and am not at all surprised of the prediction that The USA will – perhaps sooner than later – lose its first nation status.
This is all the more reason for UK/USA and their Allies (plus hopefully converted future allies – India?) should stick together.
NO! i do not mean to join (re-join!) some unelected dictator block but through an expanded and more inclusive NATO style organisation – club together against the forthcoming combined power of China and Russia.
China is a bully – ask any South China Sea country – Russia is a (toothless?) bully – see Ukraine. (Excepting Nuclear obviously) – there has to be a sensible balance of power. The USA is simply not capable of defending everything and nor should be be expected to.
This will be a very bitter pill for The USA to follow – but they must face the Truth. Sooner rather than later.
Not according to leading Chinese commentator Shiping Tang, as translated by Zichen Wang:
“The overall distribution of power within the international system will not change drastically in the next decade. The US will remain the largest economy. Europe’s core economic status will not be fundamentally shaken, but Ukraine’s post-conflict reconstruction will impose considerable pressure on Europe. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia’s strength has been greatly weakened and its image tarnished, while its influence in Central Asia and Central and Eastern European countries has drastically dwindled. Although Russia remains an important strategic partner of China, the China-Russia strategic partnership surely faces growing challenges.”
Not according to leading Chinese commentator Shiping Tang, as translated by Zichen Wang:
“The overall distribution of power within the international system will not change drastically in the next decade. The US will remain the largest economy. Europe’s core economic status will not be fundamentally shaken, but Ukraine’s post-conflict reconstruction will impose considerable pressure on Europe. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia’s strength has been greatly weakened and its image tarnished, while its influence in Central Asia and Central and Eastern European countries has drastically dwindled. Although Russia remains an important strategic partner of China, the China-Russia strategic partnership surely faces growing challenges.”
Excellent article making many good – and worrying – points.
Although I still have faith in the attraction of democratic liberty, it does look as if the non-Westernised majority of the planet is serious about finding alternatives to it – at least, the political establishments of the various nations under discussion are serious about it. The main one, China, has of course been busy building an authoritarian market economy in which Chinese people can effectively become as rich as they like as long as they do nothing to oppose the CCP. Putin’s Russia is also trying something similarly anti-democratic (with markedly less success), and even India seems to have decided that democracy, or at least the West’s version of it, doesn’t hold all that much attraction.
But that’s the collective attitude of those in power, and they’re in power in nations that have never reached the advanced living standards the West regards as normal, so it’s an open question whether authoritarian power can persist in a society with GDP/capita at Western levels. This doesn’t mean, of course, that the West’s hegemony is secure, because the 5/6 of the planet that is non-Western can put up a colossal degree of resistance to the Western-led order without ever being as wealthy. The question is, will it? I say the main issue is that as long as the democratic West provides the most wealth and liberty to its citizens out of the various alternative forms of government, it will remain the ambition of non-Westerners to become like Westerners. And I do not believe that it is possible for authoritarian government to coexist with the market mechanisms that produce Western GDP/capita, so alternative approaches to wealth creation will not succeed sufficiently well.
Of course, all this is speculative and arguably even wishful thinking on my part, and even if I’m right we might end up having a third world war before the point is proven anyway, so I’m certainly not saying its good news yet. And I certainly take the side of any non-Western nation that’s irritated at the presumption of authority on the part of the West when such nations have to listen to Western activists and policymakers telling the rest of the world that the planet can’t afford Western living standards for everyone – this, alone, makes a mockery of any attempt at global statecraft on the part of anyone peddling such a line of argument.
My point here I suppose is that it still matters which bloc holds the record to date for the best human outcomes. It’s the West – hands down and without even any close runners-up. I believe that still matters and I believe that none of the alternative approaches presently available will match it.
Excellent article making many good – and worrying – points.
Although I still have faith in the attraction of democratic liberty, it does look as if the non-Westernised majority of the planet is serious about finding alternatives to it – at least, the political establishments of the various nations under discussion are serious about it. The main one, China, has of course been busy building an authoritarian market economy in which Chinese people can effectively become as rich as they like as long as they do nothing to oppose the CCP. Putin’s Russia is also trying something similarly anti-democratic (with markedly less success), and even India seems to have decided that democracy, or at least the West’s version of it, doesn’t hold all that much attraction.
But that’s the collective attitude of those in power, and they’re in power in nations that have never reached the advanced living standards the West regards as normal, so it’s an open question whether authoritarian power can persist in a society with GDP/capita at Western levels. This doesn’t mean, of course, that the West’s hegemony is secure, because the 5/6 of the planet that is non-Western can put up a colossal degree of resistance to the Western-led order without ever being as wealthy. The question is, will it? I say the main issue is that as long as the democratic West provides the most wealth and liberty to its citizens out of the various alternative forms of government, it will remain the ambition of non-Westerners to become like Westerners. And I do not believe that it is possible for authoritarian government to coexist with the market mechanisms that produce Western GDP/capita, so alternative approaches to wealth creation will not succeed sufficiently well.
Of course, all this is speculative and arguably even wishful thinking on my part, and even if I’m right we might end up having a third world war before the point is proven anyway, so I’m certainly not saying its good news yet. And I certainly take the side of any non-Western nation that’s irritated at the presumption of authority on the part of the West when such nations have to listen to Western activists and policymakers telling the rest of the world that the planet can’t afford Western living standards for everyone – this, alone, makes a mockery of any attempt at global statecraft on the part of anyone peddling such a line of argument.
My point here I suppose is that it still matters which bloc holds the record to date for the best human outcomes. It’s the West – hands down and without even any close runners-up. I believe that still matters and I believe that none of the alternative approaches presently available will match it.
The anti-Kissinger strategy:
“Force Russia and China as close together as possible!”
The anti-Kissinger strategy:
“Force Russia and China as close together as possible!”
Against strong competition, this has to be one of the daftest articles I have read on Unherd in the last few weeks 😀
Want to explain what you disagree with, and on what bases?
Please do let us know why.
Many thanks
Want to explain what you disagree with, and on what bases?
Please do let us know why.
Many thanks
Against strong competition, this has to be one of the daftest articles I have read on Unherd in the last few weeks 😀
I normally have quite a lot of time for what this author writes, despite being of a very different political persuasion to his. On this occasion however I think he has produced a mainly politically slanted piece, using the most tenuous logic including some complete non-sequitors. A shame.
I normally have quite a lot of time for what this author writes, despite being of a very different political persuasion to his. On this occasion however I think he has produced a mainly politically slanted piece, using the most tenuous logic including some complete non-sequitors. A shame.
Many non-Westerners feel that the US is in no position to lecture other countries about the sanctity of sovereignty, territorial integrity, international law and the so-called rules-based order
I don’t think it will stop them lecturing anyone whether the lecturee cares or not.
I read an article recently in an American publication about Korea and how behind the times is Korea with regard to single parenthood, feminism etc., but, said the author, hopefully things are changing there.
These Western liberals are of one view only: ours is the way and the truth and let no one disagree.
Maybe a Korean should write an article pointing out the state of affairs re crime, drugs, homelessness etc in liberal California.
Many non-Westerners feel that the US is in no position to lecture other countries about the sanctity of sovereignty, territorial integrity, international law and the so-called rules-based order
I don’t think it will stop them lecturing anyone whether the lecturee cares or not.
I read an article recently in an American publication about Korea and how behind the times is Korea with regard to single parenthood, feminism etc., but, said the author, hopefully things are changing there.
These Western liberals are of one view only: ours is the way and the truth and let no one disagree.
Maybe a Korean should write an article pointing out the state of affairs re crime, drugs, homelessness etc in liberal California.
Yep. Hope to see you in Italy.
Or not, as the case may be.
Nuclear weapons and ” islamophobia accusation” have the same frightening power…..Paralysing fear of action in case either are used. The only difference is no one has yet used nuclear weapons since 1945, and Islamophobia accusation does not need a single shot fired, and is far more effective weapon.
The logic of this article:
By invading Iraq, George Bush foolishly lost US dominance.
Ergo:
Putin’s even more disastrous invasion of Ukraine will gain Russia and China world dominance.
Bravo, Mr. Fazi, bravo!
The logic of this article:
By invading Iraq, George Bush foolishly lost US dominance.
Ergo:
Putin’s even more disastrous invasion of Ukraine will gain Russia and China world dominance.
Bravo, Mr. Fazi, bravo!
Demography – collapse in both countries. USA/MEXICO/CANADA – the only sphere insulated from that for a while.
Demography – collapse in both countries. USA/MEXICO/CANADA – the only sphere insulated from that for a while.
I know Ukrainians in the east of the country who support Putin’s invasion and see the Ukrainian government as oppressive. One said to me that her grandmother, who is Russian speaker, was forced to speak Ukrainian by the government. It’s quite possible that if there had been a genuine referendum in the east, the majority of the population would have voted for Russia. I’m sure that this narrative is what is being told to anti-Western countries, and that the Western media doesn’t understand this.
Nevertheless, this is a strangely pessimistic article, because the fact is that Putin has invaded a sovereign country and both Russia and China are dictatorships which have no respect for the rule of international law. To be sure, America has sometimes ignored that law, but the same can’t be said for Europe, which often goes its own way. So even if he were correct, and there are many reasons why he isn’t, he offers no solutions or alternatives, unless he supports non-western autocracy. What is the point of such a rant? It isn’t clear at all.
I know Ukrainians in the east of the country who support Putin’s invasion and see the Ukrainian government as oppressive. One said to me that her grandmother, who is Russian speaker, was forced to speak Ukrainian by the government. It’s quite possible that if there had been a genuine referendum in the east, the majority of the population would have voted for Russia. I’m sure that this narrative is what is being told to anti-Western countries, and that the Western media doesn’t understand this.
Nevertheless, this is a strangely pessimistic article, because the fact is that Putin has invaded a sovereign country and both Russia and China are dictatorships which have no respect for the rule of international law. To be sure, America has sometimes ignored that law, but the same can’t be said for Europe, which often goes its own way. So even if he were correct, and there are many reasons why he isn’t, he offers no solutions or alternatives, unless he supports non-western autocracy. What is the point of such a rant? It isn’t clear at all.
I have just read the first two paragraphs and already I know the author is a loon. I thought the headline itself was silly (Russia, overtaking the west? come on), but I thought, it could just be the headline writer getting it wrong. No. The author relies on the population of countries to come to the conclusion that “the world” isn’t in favour of sanctioning Russia, which isn’t a useful metric, particularly when the country with the largest population is a totalitarian state run by a power-mad dictator, much like Russia itself.
But the second paragraph is worse. Not only are other Western countries in the American “sphere of influence”; apparently, because some still have American bases, the author believes they are forced to be in lockstep with American foreign policy initiatives. No, author. That would be the countries in Russia and China’s sphere of influence, including two countries you cited in the first paragraph as having abstained from the UN vote — namely Pakistan and South Africa.
I’ll read the rest later, but I’m not looking forward to the prospect.
But Putin invaded Ukraine!
Don’t invasions of foreign countries always make you stronger?
But Putin invaded Ukraine!
Don’t invasions of foreign countries always make you stronger?
I have just read the first two paragraphs and already I know the author is a loon. I thought the headline itself was silly (Russia, overtaking the west? come on), but I thought, it could just be the headline writer getting it wrong. No. The author relies on the population of countries to come to the conclusion that “the world” isn’t in favour of sanctioning Russia, which isn’t a useful metric, particularly when the country with the largest population is a totalitarian state run by a power-mad dictator, much like Russia itself.
But the second paragraph is worse. Not only are other Western countries in the American “sphere of influence”; apparently, because some still have American bases, the author believes they are forced to be in lockstep with American foreign policy initiatives. No, author. That would be the countries in Russia and China’s sphere of influence, including two countries you cited in the first paragraph as having abstained from the UN vote — namely Pakistan and South Africa.
I’ll read the rest later, but I’m not looking forward to the prospect.
Sadly, the BRICS in this New World Order seem ready to arrest one of its head–Putin.
This NWO meme is the shortest one on record.
“Sic semper insanus…”
Sadly, the BRICS in this New World Order seem ready to arrest one of its head–Putin.
This NWO meme is the shortest one on record.
“Sic semper insanus…”
I wonder how much is the author’s financial benefit for being a naked shill for Russia and China? Does anyone know if the author is a communist or is he just a communist sympathizers?
I wonder how much is the author’s financial benefit for being a naked shill for Russia and China? Does anyone know if the author is a communist or is he just a communist sympathizers?
Obvious propaganda piece ordered by chinese goverment. But I guess dreaming is free…
Obvious propaganda piece ordered by chinese goverment. But I guess dreaming is free…
I thought you were pretty pro the whole scene back last year, or at least not against it. I have been 100%, virulently, against the West getting involved in any way – from before it started as it was so totally obviously evil and F_c*ed up. That this wicked Proxy WWIII was obviously using Ukraine as the chessboard for some weird game which had Nothing to do with Freedom – and that was going to leave a million Ukrainians dead, 12 Million refugees to never come back – and COMPLETELY Destroy Ukraine – for no good; as the end will be the same conditions with a Russian Peace Treaty as before it began – but with obscene wastage.
Then on top global famine, global depression, and an Axis Powers arising where none existed; to oppose these Biden-Boris Allies. Then the breaking of global supply chains, the coming of a new trade currency bankrupting USA by taking some Reserve and Petro $ status. And Many other wicked and evil effects. Germany de-industrializing, and all Europe going into depression, UK going bust….
Also Fazi – why link the Telegraph for word on the high Losses Ukraine has. The Telegraph is 100% pro war, they are Zelenski-Biden’s biggest cheerleaders. The numbers you link to in their agenda rag is off by a power of 8 on one side!
Try Colonel MacGregor and Ritter. They say 30,000 Russians dead. 240,000 Ukrainian dead!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! * 8 to 1 more Ukrainians dead to each Russian – watch the video, forget the Telegraph’s numbers of Parity – watch MacGregor
”Col. Macgregor: Ukraine is CRUMBLING Under Putin’s Military Offensive”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwIc4cPWdEs
You did not even mention Iran and KSA………
Only MacGregor and Ritter must be correct–because even pro-war Russians complain about Russia’s high losses and lack of progress on the ground. Strelkov/Girkin thinks the war is already lost.
Ergo, just like the Telegraph, the pro-war Russian bloggers are…in the pay of the West !!!
I am dumbfounded at this turn of events…
Fazi needs to get on the case!
This essay is going to put all you Unherd reformed leftists in a real quandary.
Someone has intruded on your complacent view of the world. You are going to have to decide: either you keep going with the label you are known by, i.e. the pro war left, OR you will look at what’s happening right now, in the world, and try to understand actual role of the US/NATO/Russia/China/the BRICS nations, in the world, a world that is now changing before your very eyes, and you don’t even realise it. You supported bombing former Yugoslavia, the destruction of Iraq, the total destruction of Libya (a Hilary Clinton/EU operation), the attempted destruction of Syria etc. You haven’t opposed a war since ‘Nam, over 40 years ago. You hate Putin, you believe he is another Hitler, you believe ludicrous stories about him, like MH17, Scipral, the Nordstream pipeline, he wants to take over Eastern Europe, he’s corrupt, he hates gays, on and on. None of you are going to talk about what happened in 2014 in Ukraine, the Minsk agreements, Victoria Nuland (who’s she??), or the fact that 15k people died in the Donbass in the 6 years leading to the Russian invasion, at the hands of the UKR army or the the Azov battalions. And none of you will ever look at the end of US dollar hegemony, as Thomas Fazi is telling you in the article, until it happens, with incalculable consequences, for the West.
“The author appears to be drawing some incredibly long bows here….”
“It’s good to know both the UK and Britain have provided aid to Ukraine…”
“While the author does raise some interesting ideas in this article…”
–When I hear this stuff, it makes me want to reach for my revolver
My apologies for the rant–I expect a minimum of 20 down votes for this.
The old chestnut that “15k people died in the Donbass” actually ingeniously conflates all the deaths in the actual war, with a much smaller number of civilian deaths on both sides from 2015-2022, due to mutual shelling.
And Maidan wasn’t a “coup.”
Yanukovich’s govt fell only because he ordered 100 protesters shot, and then rightly understood that, if he stuck around, he would be tried and convicted.
The members of the Rada–to include many from his own party–then chose a new president.
See how clear things are when you stop thinking like a Russian, and start using evidence-based thinking?
And how much less space Truth actually needs to make its case?
Yes everything is wonderfully clear when you avoid trying to think about a complex situation from both sides. And if any inconvenient facts intrude on your clear-eyed vision you can dismiss them as, what, maybe liars, fake news, trolls?
There’s nothing particularly complex about Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. It was unprovoked, and luckily, it failed miserably.
The surrounding countries don’t think there’s anything particularly complex about the situation either. Perhaps it’s you who is overthinking it.
OK, maybe read this then tell me there’s nothing complex and it was totally unprovoked (this is the word all US spokespeople are ordered to use to describe the war. In other countries the word is ‘illegal’, but likewise they are ordered to repeat it). I’d be interested to hear what you think.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/24/vladimir-putin-invade-ukraine-2022-russia
So as the article says, he never thought of Ukraine as a real country, he annexed Crimea and fomented rebellion in the Donbass, and then launched an unprovoked attack on Ukraine. Yes, unprovoked. If you think being unable to split the Americans and Europeans qualifies as a provocation to invade Ukraine, well there’s nothing more to say.
So as the article says, he never thought of Ukraine as a real country, he annexed Crimea and fomented rebellion in the Donbass, and then launched an unprovoked attack on Ukraine. Yes, unprovoked. If you think being unable to split the Americans and Europeans qualifies as a provocation to invade Ukraine, well there’s nothing more to say.
OK, maybe read this then tell me there’s nothing complex and it was totally unprovoked (this is the word all US spokespeople are ordered to use to describe the war. In other countries the word is ‘illegal’, but likewise they are ordered to repeat it). I’d be interested to hear what you think.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/24/vladimir-putin-invade-ukraine-2022-russia
Don’t facts have to be …verifiable?
What MacGregor and Ritter post isn’t even verified by pro-war Russians.
But perhaps they go into a trance, and Reality then appears?
which facts in the article were not verifiable? FWIW I don’t even know who McGregor and Ritter are.
And If I were you I’d keep it that way.
And If I were you I’d keep it that way.
which facts in the article were not verifiable? FWIW I don’t even know who McGregor and Ritter are.
There’s nothing particularly complex about Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. It was unprovoked, and luckily, it failed miserably.
The surrounding countries don’t think there’s anything particularly complex about the situation either. Perhaps it’s you who is overthinking it.
Don’t facts have to be …verifiable?
What MacGregor and Ritter post isn’t even verified by pro-war Russians.
But perhaps they go into a trance, and Reality then appears?
Yes everything is wonderfully clear when you avoid trying to think about a complex situation from both sides. And if any inconvenient facts intrude on your clear-eyed vision you can dismiss them as, what, maybe liars, fake news, trolls?
I only know what’s on record: Ukraine isn’t a real country; I want to recreate the Russian Empire; and of course, Finland and Sweden’s turn from neutrality to joining NATO for fear of Putin. And if you don’t think Putin poisons his enemies, there’s this lovely bridge I can sell you……
The old chestnut that “15k people died in the Donbass” actually ingeniously conflates all the deaths in the actual war, with a much smaller number of civilian deaths on both sides from 2015-2022, due to mutual shelling.
And Maidan wasn’t a “coup.”
Yanukovich’s govt fell only because he ordered 100 protesters shot, and then rightly understood that, if he stuck around, he would be tried and convicted.
The members of the Rada–to include many from his own party–then chose a new president.
See how clear things are when you stop thinking like a Russian, and start using evidence-based thinking?
And how much less space Truth actually needs to make its case?
I only know what’s on record: Ukraine isn’t a real country; I want to recreate the Russian Empire; and of course, Finland and Sweden’s turn from neutrality to joining NATO for fear of Putin. And if you don’t think Putin poisons his enemies, there’s this lovely bridge I can sell you……
I believe you’ve read far too much from that paid propagandist.
Only MacGregor and Ritter must be correct–because even pro-war Russians complain about Russia’s high losses and lack of progress on the ground. Strelkov/Girkin thinks the war is already lost.
Ergo, just like the Telegraph, the pro-war Russian bloggers are…in the pay of the West !!!
I am dumbfounded at this turn of events…
Fazi needs to get on the case!
This essay is going to put all you Unherd reformed leftists in a real quandary.
Someone has intruded on your complacent view of the world. You are going to have to decide: either you keep going with the label you are known by, i.e. the pro war left, OR you will look at what’s happening right now, in the world, and try to understand actual role of the US/NATO/Russia/China/the BRICS nations, in the world, a world that is now changing before your very eyes, and you don’t even realise it. You supported bombing former Yugoslavia, the destruction of Iraq, the total destruction of Libya (a Hilary Clinton/EU operation), the attempted destruction of Syria etc. You haven’t opposed a war since ‘Nam, over 40 years ago. You hate Putin, you believe he is another Hitler, you believe ludicrous stories about him, like MH17, Scipral, the Nordstream pipeline, he wants to take over Eastern Europe, he’s corrupt, he hates gays, on and on. None of you are going to talk about what happened in 2014 in Ukraine, the Minsk agreements, Victoria Nuland (who’s she??), or the fact that 15k people died in the Donbass in the 6 years leading to the Russian invasion, at the hands of the UKR army or the the Azov battalions. And none of you will ever look at the end of US dollar hegemony, as Thomas Fazi is telling you in the article, until it happens, with incalculable consequences, for the West.
“The author appears to be drawing some incredibly long bows here….”
“It’s good to know both the UK and Britain have provided aid to Ukraine…”
“While the author does raise some interesting ideas in this article…”
–When I hear this stuff, it makes me want to reach for my revolver
My apologies for the rant–I expect a minimum of 20 down votes for this.
I believe you’ve read far too much from that paid propagandist.
I thought you were pretty pro the whole scene back last year, or at least not against it. I have been 100%, virulently, against the West getting involved in any way – from before it started as it was so totally obviously evil and F_c*ed up. That this wicked Proxy WWIII was obviously using Ukraine as the chessboard for some weird game which had Nothing to do with Freedom – and that was going to leave a million Ukrainians dead, 12 Million refugees to never come back – and COMPLETELY Destroy Ukraine – for no good; as the end will be the same conditions with a Russian Peace Treaty as before it began – but with obscene wastage.
Then on top global famine, global depression, and an Axis Powers arising where none existed; to oppose these Biden-Boris Allies. Then the breaking of global supply chains, the coming of a new trade currency bankrupting USA by taking some Reserve and Petro $ status. And Many other wicked and evil effects. Germany de-industrializing, and all Europe going into depression, UK going bust….
Also Fazi – why link the Telegraph for word on the high Losses Ukraine has. The Telegraph is 100% pro war, they are Zelenski-Biden’s biggest cheerleaders. The numbers you link to in their agenda rag is off by a power of 8 on one side!
Try Colonel MacGregor and Ritter. They say 30,000 Russians dead. 240,000 Ukrainian dead!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! * 8 to 1 more Ukrainians dead to each Russian – watch the video, forget the Telegraph’s numbers of Parity – watch MacGregor
”Col. Macgregor: Ukraine is CRUMBLING Under Putin’s Military Offensive”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwIc4cPWdEs
You did not even mention Iran and KSA………