The West hopes to “asphyxiate” the Ukraine war. Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP/ /Getty Images
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Vladimir Putin’s armies launched their fateful attack on Ukraine a year ago today. Tanks and troops poured across the frontier in what most Western governments feared would be a lightning thrust of fratricidal violence that would throttle Ukrainian independence. Then came the resistance, Russia not only held at bay but, miraculously, thrown back. As the world looks on, expectantly, waiting for the next decisive crash of momentum, a grim pessimism has again taken hold: 2022 might have been a year of heroism, but many fear 2023 might be the year the war settles into something far more conventional — and worrying.
In public, the talk might still be of liberating every inch of Ukrainian territory, but speak privately to those in London, Paris or Washington, and a cynical and sombre mood emerges. Here the talk is less of sweeping Ukrainian advances to come and more of a conflict that is likely to descend ever further into the anarchic quagmire before it stands a chance of emerging, grasping towards some kind of settlement. Over the past few weeks I have spoken to officials at the most senior levels of the British government in an attempt to get a sense of how those guiding UK policy see the war developing during the course of 2023. The overwhelming consensus is that the war in Ukraine is likely to get a lot more chaotically unpredictable before it settles — if it ever does.
Most striking is how few hold much hope for a decisive victory for either side. For many in London, Berlin and Paris, today, Ukraine’s best-case scenario is to stabilise the front sufficiently to allow it to emerge as a viable, independent state, able to defend itself — to be able to breathe and live as a relatively normal country, to trade and grow, export and settle. The unstated goal, in other words, is to grasp towards a temporary settlement which eventually becomes a permanent reality even if no one ever officially recognises it as such. Conflicts have ended this way before: Kashmir, which has been “temporarily” settled since the Forties, and Korea which remains divided and at war while still being at peace.
The question Western diplomats are now asking themselves is what this “minimal breathable scenario” now looks like for Ukraine? I’m told it consists of three basic factors: first, giving Ukraine the capability to be able to stop Russia’s constant aerial bombardment beyond a future ceasefire; second, to ensure Ukraine’s free access to the Black Sea, and third, to secure a stable front. “This is the minimum Ukraine needs before it can even consider talking,” one official put it to me. The problem is that the pre-conditions for Ukraine to emerge as such a functioning, independent state are not in place. And so the war will drag on — potentially for a long time yet.
The war, according to one senior UK official is, in some senses, “eternal”. “The Western mind wants to know when these things can be wrapped in a bow,” the official said. “But they can’t.” The problem is that Russia simply does not believe Ukraine is a separate nation or legitimate state, but a part of greater Russia, in the same way China sees Taiwan. For as long as Ukraine is independent, in other words, there will be conflict. The “end” in such circumstances is little more than a temporary ceasefire in which Russia accepts it cannot improve its position.
The appointment of Valery Gerasimov as the commander of the Russian war effort is seen, in particular, as an indication that Moscow was now going all-out. Gerasimov is widely believed to be more offensive than his rival Sergey Surovikin who oversaw Russia’s retreat last year, stabilising its lines of defence.
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SubscribeWho is this ‘Chicken Hawk’? (American political slang)
”first, giving Ukraine the capability to be able to stop Russia’s constant aerial bombardment beyond a future ceasefire;”
HOW? WT F? if Russia wants to bomb them it will – not only that, it means the war is hardly at ceasefire. Is he suggesting Biden send them a magic wand? Or just another hundred $Billion?
”The only route to a settlement as they all see it, is for the West to squeeze the heat out of the conflict by giving Ukraine what it needs to convince Russia it cannot win.”
Why? It is not our business. Biden is up to $111,000,000,000!!!!!!!!!!!!! in un- audited Free Money handed to Ukraine, the most corrupt nation on Earth! Biden is paying their Pensions! Here Pensions are eaten by inflation and old people eating catfood sandwiches and Biden is paying the Ukrainian pensions.
This money has destroyed Ukraine, destroyed the Global food and energy supply – Famine and Depression are coming from this insanity. Billions globally are to drop from Poverty to Abject Poverty and starvation to keep Zalenski in his stolen $ Billions.
Your own pensions are toast – your children will never get pensions because of this insanity…
This money and sanctions has allied China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, KSA, Venezuela …..into an alliance – That is NOT good. Rogue Nations Alliance.
Russia was going to kill their corrupt Oligarchs and replace them with his corrupt puppet Oligarchs – so what? Keeping Zalenski in stolen $Billions is not the American Taxpayers job.
LOOK – EACH $ OF WEAPONS LATER WILL REQUIRE $10 TO REPAIR THE DAMAGE! Do the numbers. Send a Hundred Billion as we have – fixing the place will cost a $Trillion after. You warmongers – so your children are going to pay that? You spend it – in Debt – They pay for it. All these children – women, young men you warmongers are sending to their death – YOUR children will pay for you to kill them now. That is how debt works – Your kids already will never own their own house – now you spend their pensions to kill Russians and Ukrainians to keep Zalenski and his ilk in corrupt $ – that is the ONLY Winner – Evil is the only winner of this war you warmongers fund!!!
Peace Now – enough of this wicked and evil war – Quit Justifying it Unherd!
Yes, agreed with all you say BUT………
The west is in self-destruct mode on all fronts:
1) The war in Ukraine…
2) Cutting back on fossil fuels when the rest of the world is carrying on as normal….
3) Pandering to all these insufferable minorities who take offence at every whisper….
4) Focussing on looking at screens rather than working…
5) Paying for a past of colonisation…
6) Pretending that men are really women…
7) Spending a fortune on keeping people alive instead of looking for cures..
8) Encouraging people to be as UNFIT as possible for life…
All of these things mean no proper life, no pensions, no future. Then the East will become dominant.
But Chris, do you know how many followers and likes Zelensky has on twitter
Also stop making Greta cry
What’s Twitter?
The organ of the chatteratti.
The organ of the chatteratti.
What’s Twitter?
Which is exactly why China is crawling all over our universities, corporations, and government, shelling out cash to eager greed goblins happy to kill our culture of freedom and prosperity. Fat, pierced, tatted semi-literate, barely verbal TikTok deviants are apparently in charge.
Not for much longer.
Not for much longer.
While I agree with 2,3,5 and 6, your conclusions are beyond pessimistic and frankly, rather reductive and stupid.
Try learning to spell, or failing that use the Edit function. Asperger’s is NO excuse here old son.
..
Everyone’s an editor. Congratulations. You caught a typo.
..
Everyone’s an editor. Congratulations. You caught a typo.
I think 50% is pretty good for Harry.
50% of what, or do you not even know.
50% of what, or do you not even know.
Try learning to spell, or failing that use the Edit function. Asperger’s is NO excuse here old son.
I think 50% is pretty good for Harry.
Slightly off piste, but why is the Welsh Assembly increasing its numbers from 60 to 96?
Has there been a massive COVID inspired ‘bonkfest’ to use the vernacular, and thus an equally massive population increase?
I really don’t know. Perhaps they are too busy, perhaps it is to give fair representation.
My own view: it is Labour-controlled and always will be so. The Labour Party (in Wales) has formerly stated that they see a future where everybody in Wales is working for the government – and this is the start of the job creation.
Apparently, when everybody is working for the government, they will get good wages and pensions and there will no longer be poor people.
There is a flaw somewhere but I can’t put my finger on it.
I wonder who is going to pay for all that?
Not ENGLAND surely?
I wonder who is going to pay for all that?
Not ENGLAND surely?
I really don’t know. Perhaps they are too busy, perhaps it is to give fair representation.
My own view: it is Labour-controlled and always will be so. The Labour Party (in Wales) has formerly stated that they see a future where everybody in Wales is working for the government – and this is the start of the job creation.
Apparently, when everybody is working for the government, they will get good wages and pensions and there will no longer be poor people.
There is a flaw somewhere but I can’t put my finger on it.
Putin has them where he wants them.
But Chris, do you know how many followers and likes Zelensky has on twitter
Also stop making Greta cry
Which is exactly why China is crawling all over our universities, corporations, and government, shelling out cash to eager greed goblins happy to kill our culture of freedom and prosperity. Fat, pierced, tatted semi-literate, barely verbal TikTok deviants are apparently in charge.
While I agree with 2,3,5 and 6, your conclusions are beyond pessimistic and frankly, rather reductive and stupid.
Slightly off piste, but why is the Welsh Assembly increasing its numbers from 60 to 96?
Has there been a massive COVID inspired ‘bonkfest’ to use the vernacular, and thus an equally massive population increase?
Putin has them where he wants them.
Russia’s air force reigns supreme–which is why they only fly s few dozen sorties a day, and never beyond the front line.
But could it be that the Neo Cons have so subverted reality itself, that what one sees and feels is no longer true?
Could George Soros be behind it all?
People keep saying that Ukraine is the most corrupt nation on Earth without any proof. I bet most African countries are more corrupt and what about Mexico?
Factually, Russia is far more corrupt than Ukraine.
But you knew that.
World Corruption Index (out of 180.)
146 Russia
146 Sierra Leone
146 Ukraine
146 Zimbabwe
146 Kenya
146 Timor Leste
179 Afghanistan
180 Somalia.
Great stats!
This is not what I see. I see Ukraine at 116 but getting better, and Russia at 127 and getting worse. Mexico is at 126 and staying the same. Somalia of course at 180 and getting worse. (https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2022). Or (https://www.worlddata.info/corruption.php) Ukraine at 53, better than Mexico at 63, Russia at 74 and Somalia at the bottom 117. Incidentally, this latter makes the point that the least corrupt countries are also the ones with the highest average income; and in this respect Russia is a clear outlier, with the average income shown as $11610 and Ukraine at only $4120. Where did you get your statistics, Mr. Stanhope?
Well spotted due to slovenly staff work I was using the 2009 figures!
2022: TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL.
116 Zambia
116 Philippines
116 Mongolia
116 El Salvador
116 Ukraine
116 Algeria
116 Angola
137 RUSSIA
“Lies, damned lies and statistics?”*
(* 1st Duke of Wellington or Benjamin Disraeli or even someone else!)
Well spotted due to slovenly staff work I was using the 2009 figures!
2022: TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL.
116 Zambia
116 Philippines
116 Mongolia
116 El Salvador
116 Ukraine
116 Algeria
116 Angola
137 RUSSIA
“Lies, damned lies and statistics?”*
(* 1st Duke of Wellington or Benjamin Disraeli or even someone else!)
Great stats!
This is not what I see. I see Ukraine at 116 but getting better, and Russia at 127 and getting worse. Mexico is at 126 and staying the same. Somalia of course at 180 and getting worse. (https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2022). Or (https://www.worlddata.info/corruption.php) Ukraine at 53, better than Mexico at 63, Russia at 74 and Somalia at the bottom 117. Incidentally, this latter makes the point that the least corrupt countries are also the ones with the highest average income; and in this respect Russia is a clear outlier, with the average income shown as $11610 and Ukraine at only $4120. Where did you get your statistics, Mr. Stanhope?
It was the 4th most corrupt, but not sure who’s done the tallying…
That sort of tallying is done by the Kremlin; but see above. In any event, I haven’t seen any quotes from Putin to say that the intent of the invasion is to eliminate Ukrainian corruption, just to eliminate mythological fascists and the hordes of American tanks supposedly ravaging the outskirts of Moskva, the new Stalingrad.
That sort of tallying is done by the Kremlin; but see above. In any event, I haven’t seen any quotes from Putin to say that the intent of the invasion is to eliminate Ukrainian corruption, just to eliminate mythological fascists and the hordes of American tanks supposedly ravaging the outskirts of Moskva, the new Stalingrad.
Factually, Russia is far more corrupt than Ukraine.
But you knew that.
World Corruption Index (out of 180.)
146 Russia
146 Sierra Leone
146 Ukraine
146 Zimbabwe
146 Kenya
146 Timor Leste
179 Afghanistan
180 Somalia.
It was the 4th most corrupt, but not sure who’s done the tallying…
Waaaaah! It is not our business! (even though an aggressive war by an expansionist warmonger on Europe’s doorstep is everyone’s “business.”)
Waaaaah! Weapons are so expensive. (yes, defending a sovereign country from a determined invader doesn’t come cheap)
Waaaaah! There will be famine and depression if we don’t stop helping Ukraine right now! (yes, wars are tough, with scarcity and economic downturns. Ukrainians are paying a much higher price than that for Putin’s aggression.)
Waaaaah! Peace now. Enough of this evil and wicked war. (I agree 100%. Vladimir Putin should withdraw his troops. That would end the war in a minute.)
It’s not everyone’s business. It’s in your backyard, you take care of it. But you can’t, can you, because all of Europe have been relying on the USA to bail you out at every opportunity. I don’t think it would matter one damn to the USA if Russia overran all of the former Soviet client states (i.e, not a vital strategic interest of ours). We would just continue to do business with the new boss at the old location. And you wouldn’t care either as long as you got your daily pint.
It’s not everyone’s business. It’s in your backyard, you take care of it. But you can’t, can you, because all of Europe have been relying on the USA to bail you out at every opportunity. I don’t think it would matter one damn to the USA if Russia overran all of the former Soviet client states (i.e, not a vital strategic interest of ours). We would just continue to do business with the new boss at the old location. And you wouldn’t care either as long as you got your daily pint.
The real question relates to how fast can Putin resupply munitions. The bombardment has slowed and less accurate missiles are falling. Indeed a lot of Ukraine has been smashed but they fight on. While the sums the US sends are large it’s an insignificant expense in terms of the overall outlays. Can the west supply more bullets than Russia? So far Russian manpower losses have not harmed the population, but some are not happy. Can Putin continue control if the economy shrinks this next year as it has in this? Fuels are not delivering promised revenue as the Chinese take advantage.
Good points, but note that Ukraine, in one year, used up 13 yrs of the US’s supply of Javelin missiles – most of our “stock” of many our weapons it could take 2 years to produce the Abrams tanks that were “promised.
The reason Putin can’t sue for peace.
If he did, all the justification to keep people in line disappears.
And they realize how much Russia has permanently lost.
The Russian and Ukraine capability trajectories are completely different. Ukraine has never been stronger (more artillery, armor including tanks captured from Russia, precision munitions, and superb overhead intel to shooter synergies, and a million troops under arms versus 200k a year ago). The Russians have lost half of their best tanks, planes, crews and an overwhelming majority of their precision munitions. They also are particularly short of frontline leaders (NCO’s and junior officers) and as such die in much larger numbers to much more shrewd and well organized Ukraine defenders. Morale and will to win is key in such fights, and the difference there is night and day as well. The Russians could collapse soon, particularly if Ukraine receives generous quantities of tanks and all types of ammo now. The Russians simply cannot rebuild what is lost, but the West can. Finally, we have spent more than a billion dollars on Nato over the past ten years. Ukraine is totally kneecapping the Russian tactical forces and they will not be a credible tactical threat to Europe for a long time when this one is over. This will allow lower investment by the US in the future if we so choose. News forecast September 1st 2023; “Ukraine forces cutoff Crimea from the Donbass, forcing Russia to abandon Sevastopol and flee across the Kerch straits back into Russia. Putin offers to stand down in exchange for the Donbass, Ukraine replies by surrounding Donetsk and forcing garrison surrender. Zelenksy offers a 60 kilometer demilitarized zone centered on Ukraine former borders and a ceasfire when the Russian troops reverse over the international border. They do”.
Good points, but note that Ukraine, in one year, used up 13 yrs of the US’s supply of Javelin missiles – most of our “stock” of many our weapons it could take 2 years to produce the Abrams tanks that were “promised.
The reason Putin can’t sue for peace.
If he did, all the justification to keep people in line disappears.
And they realize how much Russia has permanently lost.
The Russian and Ukraine capability trajectories are completely different. Ukraine has never been stronger (more artillery, armor including tanks captured from Russia, precision munitions, and superb overhead intel to shooter synergies, and a million troops under arms versus 200k a year ago). The Russians have lost half of their best tanks, planes, crews and an overwhelming majority of their precision munitions. They also are particularly short of frontline leaders (NCO’s and junior officers) and as such die in much larger numbers to much more shrewd and well organized Ukraine defenders. Morale and will to win is key in such fights, and the difference there is night and day as well. The Russians could collapse soon, particularly if Ukraine receives generous quantities of tanks and all types of ammo now. The Russians simply cannot rebuild what is lost, but the West can. Finally, we have spent more than a billion dollars on Nato over the past ten years. Ukraine is totally kneecapping the Russian tactical forces and they will not be a credible tactical threat to Europe for a long time when this one is over. This will allow lower investment by the US in the future if we so choose. News forecast September 1st 2023; “Ukraine forces cutoff Crimea from the Donbass, forcing Russia to abandon Sevastopol and flee across the Kerch straits back into Russia. Putin offers to stand down in exchange for the Donbass, Ukraine replies by surrounding Donetsk and forcing garrison surrender. Zelenksy offers a 60 kilometer demilitarized zone centered on Ukraine former borders and a ceasfire when the Russian troops reverse over the international border. They do”.
The only thing that could achieve “Ukraine being able to defend the integrity of its territory” would be nuclear weapons. Ironic that the Ukrainians surrendered all of the Soviet ones in 1993.
And no, I am NOT suggesting that we hand them nukes. I am suggesting that we accept (like we did with Stalin and Budapest) that Russia has a greater interest in Ukraine than we do.
You know who has an even greater interest in Ukraine than Russia? The Ukrainian people. And they don’t want to be in Russia’s “sphere of influence.” They know from hard experience what they actually means.
You know who has an even greater interest in Ukraine than Russia? The Ukrainian people. And they don’t want to be in Russia’s “sphere of influence.” They know from hard experience what they actually means.
The Russian army in Ukraine is in the same position now as the Tsar’s Russian army was in World War I. They have huge supply chain issues. Russia is rumored to be buying ammunition from North Korea, not known for producing high quality ammunition, because Russia has used up most of their own usable stockpiles. Russia is buying drones and missiles from Iran, because they’ve used most of their own, and sanctions prevent them from getting the electronics they need to make more. Russian artillery fire overall has declined over 70% due to a shell shortage. They concentrate it on narrow fronts, like Bakhmut, where they use World War I style infantry attacks after artillery barrages, with high Russian casualties, to try to break through. They’re short of tanks, and prefer to take massive infantry casualties instead.
Russia’s recent conquest of Soledar has no strategic significance. Ukrainian artillery is pounding the town.
Putin can’t depend on the loyalty of mobilized mobiks, so he can’t allow them to be armed and trained adequately, even if he had the means to do so. (Please remember the Tsar was overthrown by draftees.) Most mobiks are well over 30 and out of physical shape. Typical mobik training is 20-60 rounds fired through a very old AK-47, and that’s all. After a week of such “training,” mobiks are sent to the front, often without officers. They are placed in front line trenches to draw Ukrainian artillery fire, facilitating Russian counter battery fire. Mobiks generally have minimal equipment, no tents, sleeping bags or bullet proof armor, and at best minimal rations of food.
Casualties and equipment losses in Russias professional army have been high. Russia invaded with 160,000-180,000 of their most elite soldiers. At least 80,000-90,000 are dead or seriously wounded. Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties are double that. Also, proportional amounts of their equipment have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine. The trained soldiers are irreplaceable.
You might think equipment can be replaced from reserve stocks. However, old Soviet tanks are stored in open fields subject to Russian winter weather. After 30-60 years, they need a lot of maintenance, almost complete reassembly to replace engine seals and hoses, to work. Further, many of their valuable parts have been stolen and sold. In an unrelated example of theft, 1.5 million uniforms vanished from their warehouses in Russia. They were either stolen, or paid for, but never made.
Russia isn’t the USSR. Putin ain’t Stalin or even close. Quite a number of oil oligarchs have fallen from windows or boats, or died in other mysterious circumstances. The Russian Army’s command structure since the start of the invasion has changed every 3 months. The FSB (formerly KGB) has had a couple of shake ups. Putin looks ill and is rumored to have cancer. There seems to be discontent inside the oligarchy with Putin’s decisions. At some point, military power inside Russia will become more important than military power in Ukraine. I think Putin will be replaced if he continues to lose, or if he orders a nuclear attack.
In short, I think you have vastly over estimated Russian resources.
Yes, agreed with all you say BUT………
The west is in self-destruct mode on all fronts:
1) The war in Ukraine…
2) Cutting back on fossil fuels when the rest of the world is carrying on as normal….
3) Pandering to all these insufferable minorities who take offence at every whisper….
4) Focussing on looking at screens rather than working…
5) Paying for a past of colonisation…
6) Pretending that men are really women…
7) Spending a fortune on keeping people alive instead of looking for cures..
8) Encouraging people to be as UNFIT as possible for life…
All of these things mean no proper life, no pensions, no future. Then the East will become dominant.
Russia’s air force reigns supreme–which is why they only fly s few dozen sorties a day, and never beyond the front line.
But could it be that the Neo Cons have so subverted reality itself, that what one sees and feels is no longer true?
Could George Soros be behind it all?
People keep saying that Ukraine is the most corrupt nation on Earth without any proof. I bet most African countries are more corrupt and what about Mexico?
Waaaaah! It is not our business! (even though an aggressive war by an expansionist warmonger on Europe’s doorstep is everyone’s “business.”)
Waaaaah! Weapons are so expensive. (yes, defending a sovereign country from a determined invader doesn’t come cheap)
Waaaaah! There will be famine and depression if we don’t stop helping Ukraine right now! (yes, wars are tough, with scarcity and economic downturns. Ukrainians are paying a much higher price than that for Putin’s aggression.)
Waaaaah! Peace now. Enough of this evil and wicked war. (I agree 100%. Vladimir Putin should withdraw his troops. That would end the war in a minute.)
The real question relates to how fast can Putin resupply munitions. The bombardment has slowed and less accurate missiles are falling. Indeed a lot of Ukraine has been smashed but they fight on. While the sums the US sends are large it’s an insignificant expense in terms of the overall outlays. Can the west supply more bullets than Russia? So far Russian manpower losses have not harmed the population, but some are not happy. Can Putin continue control if the economy shrinks this next year as it has in this? Fuels are not delivering promised revenue as the Chinese take advantage.
The only thing that could achieve “Ukraine being able to defend the integrity of its territory” would be nuclear weapons. Ironic that the Ukrainians surrendered all of the Soviet ones in 1993.
And no, I am NOT suggesting that we hand them nukes. I am suggesting that we accept (like we did with Stalin and Budapest) that Russia has a greater interest in Ukraine than we do.
The Russian army in Ukraine is in the same position now as the Tsar’s Russian army was in World War I. They have huge supply chain issues. Russia is rumored to be buying ammunition from North Korea, not known for producing high quality ammunition, because Russia has used up most of their own usable stockpiles. Russia is buying drones and missiles from Iran, because they’ve used most of their own, and sanctions prevent them from getting the electronics they need to make more. Russian artillery fire overall has declined over 70% due to a shell shortage. They concentrate it on narrow fronts, like Bakhmut, where they use World War I style infantry attacks after artillery barrages, with high Russian casualties, to try to break through. They’re short of tanks, and prefer to take massive infantry casualties instead.
Russia’s recent conquest of Soledar has no strategic significance. Ukrainian artillery is pounding the town.
Putin can’t depend on the loyalty of mobilized mobiks, so he can’t allow them to be armed and trained adequately, even if he had the means to do so. (Please remember the Tsar was overthrown by draftees.) Most mobiks are well over 30 and out of physical shape. Typical mobik training is 20-60 rounds fired through a very old AK-47, and that’s all. After a week of such “training,” mobiks are sent to the front, often without officers. They are placed in front line trenches to draw Ukrainian artillery fire, facilitating Russian counter battery fire. Mobiks generally have minimal equipment, no tents, sleeping bags or bullet proof armor, and at best minimal rations of food.
Casualties and equipment losses in Russias professional army have been high. Russia invaded with 160,000-180,000 of their most elite soldiers. At least 80,000-90,000 are dead or seriously wounded. Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties are double that. Also, proportional amounts of their equipment have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine. The trained soldiers are irreplaceable.
You might think equipment can be replaced from reserve stocks. However, old Soviet tanks are stored in open fields subject to Russian winter weather. After 30-60 years, they need a lot of maintenance, almost complete reassembly to replace engine seals and hoses, to work. Further, many of their valuable parts have been stolen and sold. In an unrelated example of theft, 1.5 million uniforms vanished from their warehouses in Russia. They were either stolen, or paid for, but never made.
Russia isn’t the USSR. Putin ain’t Stalin or even close. Quite a number of oil oligarchs have fallen from windows or boats, or died in other mysterious circumstances. The Russian Army’s command structure since the start of the invasion has changed every 3 months. The FSB (formerly KGB) has had a couple of shake ups. Putin looks ill and is rumored to have cancer. There seems to be discontent inside the oligarchy with Putin’s decisions. At some point, military power inside Russia will become more important than military power in Ukraine. I think Putin will be replaced if he continues to lose, or if he orders a nuclear attack.
In short, I think you have vastly over estimated Russian resources.
Who is this ‘Chicken Hawk’? (American political slang)
”first, giving Ukraine the capability to be able to stop Russia’s constant aerial bombardment beyond a future ceasefire;”
HOW? WT F? if Russia wants to bomb them it will – not only that, it means the war is hardly at ceasefire. Is he suggesting Biden send them a magic wand? Or just another hundred $Billion?
”The only route to a settlement as they all see it, is for the West to squeeze the heat out of the conflict by giving Ukraine what it needs to convince Russia it cannot win.”
Why? It is not our business. Biden is up to $111,000,000,000!!!!!!!!!!!!! in un- audited Free Money handed to Ukraine, the most corrupt nation on Earth! Biden is paying their Pensions! Here Pensions are eaten by inflation and old people eating catfood sandwiches and Biden is paying the Ukrainian pensions.
This money has destroyed Ukraine, destroyed the Global food and energy supply – Famine and Depression are coming from this insanity. Billions globally are to drop from Poverty to Abject Poverty and starvation to keep Zalenski in his stolen $ Billions.
Your own pensions are toast – your children will never get pensions because of this insanity…
This money and sanctions has allied China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, KSA, Venezuela …..into an alliance – That is NOT good. Rogue Nations Alliance.
Russia was going to kill their corrupt Oligarchs and replace them with his corrupt puppet Oligarchs – so what? Keeping Zalenski in stolen $Billions is not the American Taxpayers job.
LOOK – EACH $ OF WEAPONS LATER WILL REQUIRE $10 TO REPAIR THE DAMAGE! Do the numbers. Send a Hundred Billion as we have – fixing the place will cost a $Trillion after. You warmongers – so your children are going to pay that? You spend it – in Debt – They pay for it. All these children – women, young men you warmongers are sending to their death – YOUR children will pay for you to kill them now. That is how debt works – Your kids already will never own their own house – now you spend their pensions to kill Russians and Ukrainians to keep Zalenski and his ilk in corrupt $ – that is the ONLY Winner – Evil is the only winner of this war you warmongers fund!!!
Peace Now – enough of this wicked and evil war – Quit Justifying it Unherd!
Everyone wants a negotiated settlement. Even Zelensky will be prepared for some compromises when the time comes – a 38th parallel equivalent in the Donbas likely etc. The issue is one has to negotiate from a position of strength with Putin or he’ll just come back for more. He continues to believe that eventually western resolution will weaken. He also believes any ceasefire pause would work in his favour, buying time for his forces to regroup/replenish/retrain, whilst dissipating western unity.
So we want this to end with a negotiation Putin will accept we need to get Ukraine into a stronger position, and this year. Position of Crimea vital. Isolate that and then provide security guarantees to Zelensky and Putin likely forced to negotiate a deal acceptable to Ukraine.
The problem for many of those railing against perception the West is warmongering is they don’t grasp the reality of where you need to stand for a negotiated settlement to be successful. We are all trying to get to the same point but differing on what we think is required to get there.
Russians were fooled once with Minsk treaty. Do you really think they would fall for that again? And would let some super-unfriendly state sitting on a side sucking military power from NATO and getting ready to attack? Nah.
So Ukraine will want to invade Russia? Yeah right.It will certainly not be friends with Russia for a while though you are right about that – would you be friends with your neighbour who raped your wife, killed your children, stole your stuff and burned your house down?
Ukraine was fooled once when it gave up its nukes in return for a guarantee from, among other countries, Russia. Do you think Ukraine would fall for another phony Russian promise again? Nah.
So Ukraine will want to invade Russia? Yeah right.It will certainly not be friends with Russia for a while though you are right about that – would you be friends with your neighbour who raped your wife, killed your children, stole your stuff and burned your house down?
Ukraine was fooled once when it gave up its nukes in return for a guarantee from, among other countries, Russia. Do you think Ukraine would fall for another phony Russian promise again? Nah.
Russians were fooled once with Minsk treaty. Do you really think they would fall for that again? And would let some super-unfriendly state sitting on a side sucking military power from NATO and getting ready to attack? Nah.
Everyone wants a negotiated settlement. Even Zelensky will be prepared for some compromises when the time comes – a 38th parallel equivalent in the Donbas likely etc. The issue is one has to negotiate from a position of strength with Putin or he’ll just come back for more. He continues to believe that eventually western resolution will weaken. He also believes any ceasefire pause would work in his favour, buying time for his forces to regroup/replenish/retrain, whilst dissipating western unity.
So we want this to end with a negotiation Putin will accept we need to get Ukraine into a stronger position, and this year. Position of Crimea vital. Isolate that and then provide security guarantees to Zelensky and Putin likely forced to negotiate a deal acceptable to Ukraine.
The problem for many of those railing against perception the West is warmongering is they don’t grasp the reality of where you need to stand for a negotiated settlement to be successful. We are all trying to get to the same point but differing on what we think is required to get there.
The published 12 point Chinese peace plan is eminently sensible and clearly the best way forward and the West should at least give it a try. How much more suffering can the Ukrainian people stand. 8 million have left the country and those that are left are struggling to eat and keep warm. The Russians have apparently agreed to peace talks. Zelensky must be told to start negotiations to avoid more grief and carnage over a piece of land (The Donbas) which is full of ethnic Russians?
No.1 ‘respecting the sovereignty of nations’ – so what does that mean for the invasion? Will respecting involve withdrawal to international borders? Of course not.
This is China endeavouring to help Putin buy some time and look conciliatory.
And of the 8 million people who have left the country a sizeable number will be those who don’t want to be conscripted into the Ukrainian army or who saw the opportunity to flee to the West and possibly gain settlement status over time..
Perhaps they deliberately started the war to get here.
Perhaps they deliberately started the war to get here.
Ah yes, those “sensible” Russians led by eminently sensible Putin and that sad, inflexible Zelenskyy. Make him stop defending his country! Now!
Putin will reject.
How can he actually agree to Point 1: that all of Ukraine belongs to Ukraine?
No.1 ‘respecting the sovereignty of nations’ – so what does that mean for the invasion? Will respecting involve withdrawal to international borders? Of course not.
This is China endeavouring to help Putin buy some time and look conciliatory.
And of the 8 million people who have left the country a sizeable number will be those who don’t want to be conscripted into the Ukrainian army or who saw the opportunity to flee to the West and possibly gain settlement status over time..
Ah yes, those “sensible” Russians led by eminently sensible Putin and that sad, inflexible Zelenskyy. Make him stop defending his country! Now!
Putin will reject.
How can he actually agree to Point 1: that all of Ukraine belongs to Ukraine?
The published 12 point Chinese peace plan is eminently sensible and clearly the best way forward and the West should at least give it a try. How much more suffering can the Ukrainian people stand. 8 million have left the country and those that are left are struggling to eat and keep warm. The Russians have apparently agreed to peace talks. Zelensky must be told to start negotiations to avoid more grief and carnage over a piece of land (The Donbas) which is full of ethnic Russians?
That is the amazing paradox:
A much stronger Russia was “terrified” of just Ukraine. The rest of Europe was LGBTQ+, and poor Sleepy Joe would just fold.
Indeed, Ukraine was “so strong” that Putin had “no choice” but to invade.
Yet if Ukraine was so strong that Russia has had to retreat on all fronts, wasn’t invading it a pretty…dumb idea?
Indeed, a 3-day war that lasts years, and cripples Russia’s economy for decades–for a few obliterated provinces–seems…really dumb.
Perhaps it takes a Russian to see the logic.
Because I certainly don’t.
That is the amazing paradox:
A much stronger Russia was “terrified” of just Ukraine. The rest of Europe was LGBTQ+, and poor Sleepy Joe would just fold.
Indeed, Ukraine was “so strong” that Putin had “no choice” but to invade.
Yet if Ukraine was so strong that Russia has had to retreat on all fronts, wasn’t invading it a pretty…dumb idea?
Indeed, a 3-day war that lasts years, and cripples Russia’s economy for decades–for a few obliterated provinces–seems…really dumb.
Perhaps it takes a Russian to see the logic.
Because I certainly don’t.
How much ‘suffering’ can Russia take ?
We’ve ‘assumed’ about the unassailable might of the Russian army, despite it’s failings in Afghanistan or Chechnya (obviously anomalies) and been proven to be ‘clueless’ time and time again. Why then do we assume that the Russian capacity for ‘suffering’ is unchanged from that of the past ?
Ukraine is not entirely without advantage, even if it doesn’t advance, all it needs to do is destroy Russias will to make war. Western weapons give Ukraine that capacity, they can destroy Russias ability to concentrate it’s forces and weapon systems, making them reliant on low tech, poorly supported, mass infantry, assaults. Modern, long range, precision weapons can destroy Russias capacity, and will, before it even gets anywhere near the front line, much less assault it. Kill enough Russians and even the Russians might start taking notice.
Except right now, despite Western weapons, it would appear that Ukrainian losses vastly exceed Russian ones.
In manpower Russia’s losses much greater and Ukraine has no manpower problem as yet. In fact it’s troops are now betetr trained and equipped than they were at the start. And much better motivated and led. Ukraine has suffered much more infrastructure and economic damage, but has also found itself as a Nation. That does not make the former worth the latter but it wasn’t like they had a choice.
The question perhaps – is would they suffer less damage if they just gave up? One only has to look at what has happened in Bucha and other occupied areas to appreciate this is existential for them.
You may be misinformed, as of this January UN estimates:
“total number of deaths on the Russian side is about 35,000, while the total number of dead and wounded is about 100,000. On the Ukrainian side, there are about 50,000 deaths and about 150,000 dead and wounded in total.”
The Ukraine War in 2023 (swprs.org)
You’re citing a conspiracy website with zero credibility that isn’t actually Swiss and probably run by the Russians.
Don’t burst his bubble.
When Russian tanks explode, no one gets killed.
Mr Logan, you obviously feel very strongly about Ukraine and your hatred of Russia knows no bounds.
I presume you’re somewhere between 15 and 75 yrs old. I know the Ukes are looking for volunteers anywhere in that age bracket to sign up for 6 month tours into their foreign legion. Have no fear – all are accepted. The Ukes are very inclusive -all are welcome including LGBTIs and the unsure. Even if you’re over 75 yrs old do not despair, I’m sure in your case they’ll make an exception given that your all pervasive hatred will make up for any inadequacy on the fitness front.
So, unless I hear you’re at the front line in Bakhmut by the end of April 2023 I’ll presume you’re a craven bar room colonal type or, let’s say, a tad hypocritical.
To put it another way, the world would be a better place if ‘you put your body where your mouth is’ …. on the Eastern front near Bakhmut.
……And, of course, we all know you want the world to be a better place…….
Sadly, my days as a tank officer in Germany during the Cold War are well and truly over.
Anyone 73 would be a liability, not an asset, in places like Bakhmut.
But you knew that already.
All I can do now is give to the Ukrainian United24, which I urge everyone to do.
You sound like a prime candidate for Putin’s invasion force yourself.
As a diabetic 72 year old Vietnam Era USAF Veteran, I make financial contributions to Ukraine. I also have asthma, high blood pressure and bad arthritis. It takes me over 45 minutes to set up my pills for a week.
Your argument is a red herring. There’s no indication at all that Ukraine needs US troops to defend it. Ukrainians have absorbed new weapons quickly and are using them effectively. US aid will be limited to arms, ammo and training. There’s no potential for a Vietnam style quagmire. US troops were required in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq because all of them lacked troops able to use modern weapons effectively and the will to win. Ukraine doesn’t have that problem.
I also remember that the left’s reaction to Communists killing 2 million Cambodians and hundreds of thousands of Vietnamese and Laotians was to claim there was “no bloodbath.” Possibly you haven’t considered how many Ukrainians Russia will kill after your peace process is over. Or maybe you just don’t care.
Sadly, my days as a tank officer in Germany during the Cold War are well and truly over.
Anyone 73 would be a liability, not an asset, in places like Bakhmut.
But you knew that already.
All I can do now is give to the Ukrainian United24, which I urge everyone to do.
You sound like a prime candidate for Putin’s invasion force yourself.
As a diabetic 72 year old Vietnam Era USAF Veteran, I make financial contributions to Ukraine. I also have asthma, high blood pressure and bad arthritis. It takes me over 45 minutes to set up my pills for a week.
Your argument is a red herring. There’s no indication at all that Ukraine needs US troops to defend it. Ukrainians have absorbed new weapons quickly and are using them effectively. US aid will be limited to arms, ammo and training. There’s no potential for a Vietnam style quagmire. US troops were required in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq because all of them lacked troops able to use modern weapons effectively and the will to win. Ukraine doesn’t have that problem.
I also remember that the left’s reaction to Communists killing 2 million Cambodians and hundreds of thousands of Vietnamese and Laotians was to claim there was “no bloodbath.” Possibly you haven’t considered how many Ukrainians Russia will kill after your peace process is over. Or maybe you just don’t care.
Mr Logan, you obviously feel very strongly about Ukraine and your hatred of Russia knows no bounds.
I presume you’re somewhere between 15 and 75 yrs old. I know the Ukes are looking for volunteers anywhere in that age bracket to sign up for 6 month tours into their foreign legion. Have no fear – all are accepted. The Ukes are very inclusive -all are welcome including LGBTIs and the unsure. Even if you’re over 75 yrs old do not despair, I’m sure in your case they’ll make an exception given that your all pervasive hatred will make up for any inadequacy on the fitness front.
So, unless I hear you’re at the front line in Bakhmut by the end of April 2023 I’ll presume you’re a craven bar room colonal type or, let’s say, a tad hypocritical.
To put it another way, the world would be a better place if ‘you put your body where your mouth is’ …. on the Eastern front near Bakhmut.
……And, of course, we all know you want the world to be a better place…….
You beat me to it…a sock puppet and one that badly needs darning
Don’t burst his bubble.
When Russian tanks explode, no one gets killed.
You beat me to it…a sock puppet and one that badly needs darning
That’s a ridiculously low estimate for Russian dead and wounded in the first year of the war. Allied intelligence estimates range from 100,000 to 200,000 dead and wounded Russians. You also have to estimate a higher ratio of dead to wounded because Russian military medical services are very poor. It’s probably close to only 2 wounded for every dead soldier. Remember, Russia only started with 180,000 front line soldiers, so they have lost at least half of their best trained soldiers.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-war-news-russia-invasion-by-the-numbers/
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/us/politics/ukraine-russia-casualties.html#:~:text=Feb.%202%2C%202023%20WASHINGTON%20%E2%80%94%20The%20number%20of,gone%2C%20according%20to%20American%20and%20other%20Western%20officials.
You’re citing a conspiracy website with zero credibility that isn’t actually Swiss and probably run by the Russians.
That’s a ridiculously low estimate for Russian dead and wounded in the first year of the war. Allied intelligence estimates range from 100,000 to 200,000 dead and wounded Russians. You also have to estimate a higher ratio of dead to wounded because Russian military medical services are very poor. It’s probably close to only 2 wounded for every dead soldier. Remember, Russia only started with 180,000 front line soldiers, so they have lost at least half of their best trained soldiers.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-war-news-russia-invasion-by-the-numbers/
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/us/politics/ukraine-russia-casualties.html#:~:text=Feb.%202%2C%202023%20WASHINGTON%20%E2%80%94%20The%20number%20of,gone%2C%20according%20to%20American%20and%20other%20Western%20officials.
You may be misinformed, as of this January UN estimates:
“total number of deaths on the Russian side is about 35,000, while the total number of dead and wounded is about 100,000. On the Ukrainian side, there are about 50,000 deaths and about 150,000 dead and wounded in total.”
The Ukraine War in 2023 (swprs.org)
On what planet do you dwell, Herr Strauss? On equipment losses, the excellent Oryxspionkop site disagrees with you. On military manpower, everyone apart from the Russian state appears to disagree with you. On civilian casualties, given the indiscriminate nature of Russian artillery and missile fire, quite apart from extrajudicial killings, you may have a point. But it’s not entirely surprising, as Russia invaded Ukraine.
A Mossad report disagrees with you.
A Mossad report disagrees with you.
Only on garbage Russian sites.
Might even lead you to think Russia hasn’t even lost 15,000 dead yet.
This may be true and it may also be Russian propaganda, fed to us by Putin bootlickers like you. There’s no way you or anyone else here knows this for certain.
In manpower Russia’s losses much greater and Ukraine has no manpower problem as yet. In fact it’s troops are now betetr trained and equipped than they were at the start. And much better motivated and led. Ukraine has suffered much more infrastructure and economic damage, but has also found itself as a Nation. That does not make the former worth the latter but it wasn’t like they had a choice.
The question perhaps – is would they suffer less damage if they just gave up? One only has to look at what has happened in Bucha and other occupied areas to appreciate this is existential for them.
On what planet do you dwell, Herr Strauss? On equipment losses, the excellent Oryxspionkop site disagrees with you. On military manpower, everyone apart from the Russian state appears to disagree with you. On civilian casualties, given the indiscriminate nature of Russian artillery and missile fire, quite apart from extrajudicial killings, you may have a point. But it’s not entirely surprising, as Russia invaded Ukraine.
Only on garbage Russian sites.
Might even lead you to think Russia hasn’t even lost 15,000 dead yet.
This may be true and it may also be Russian propaganda, fed to us by Putin bootlickers like you. There’s no way you or anyone else here knows this for certain.
Except right now, despite Western weapons, it would appear that Ukrainian losses vastly exceed Russian ones.
How much ‘suffering’ can Russia take ?
We’ve ‘assumed’ about the unassailable might of the Russian army, despite it’s failings in Afghanistan or Chechnya (obviously anomalies) and been proven to be ‘clueless’ time and time again. Why then do we assume that the Russian capacity for ‘suffering’ is unchanged from that of the past ?
Ukraine is not entirely without advantage, even if it doesn’t advance, all it needs to do is destroy Russias will to make war. Western weapons give Ukraine that capacity, they can destroy Russias ability to concentrate it’s forces and weapon systems, making them reliant on low tech, poorly supported, mass infantry, assaults. Modern, long range, precision weapons can destroy Russias capacity, and will, before it even gets anywhere near the front line, much less assault it. Kill enough Russians and even the Russians might start taking notice.
I am deeply impressed at the total lack of awareness by many here of the military aspect of something called a “war.”
One might listen to people who actually know something about this war, and where it might lead. Michael Kofman and Rob Lee come to mind.
But the (very Post-Modern) problem is: people want to be fooled. Anything but their ingenious preconceived notions just can’t be true.
The fact is, no one can know the outcome of this war.
But feckless claims that “Russia is so big, it can’t lose” and “the Russians are losing fewer troops–while they attack–than the Ukrainians” ignores every war that has ever been fought. It also ignores the outcome of both the Vietnam and Afghanistan conflicts.
Moreover, the argument that the most corrupt regime on the planet will somehow win because Ukraine is “sort of corrupt too” simply beggars belief.
But nice to see that the people who complain that the majority are just sheep following Joe and the EU turn out to be the biggest flock of all.
Baaaa…
I am deeply impressed at the total lack of awareness by many here of the military aspect of something called a “war.”
One might listen to people who actually know something about this war, and where it might lead. Michael Kofman and Rob Lee come to mind.
But the (very Post-Modern) problem is: people want to be fooled. Anything but their ingenious preconceived notions just can’t be true.
The fact is, no one can know the outcome of this war.
But feckless claims that “Russia is so big, it can’t lose” and “the Russians are losing fewer troops–while they attack–than the Ukrainians” ignores every war that has ever been fought. It also ignores the outcome of both the Vietnam and Afghanistan conflicts.
Moreover, the argument that the most corrupt regime on the planet will somehow win because Ukraine is “sort of corrupt too” simply beggars belief.
But nice to see that the people who complain that the majority are just sheep following Joe and the EU turn out to be the biggest flock of all.
Baaaa…
Eternal war is an eye catching headline but a very silly concept.
There has never been an eternal war, as evidenced by the plain fact that the only war going on at present is the one we’re discussing, which may feel “eternal” but has gone on for one year. One year too long, to be sure, but hardly “eternal.”
There has never been an eternal war, as evidenced by the plain fact that the only war going on at present is the one we’re discussing, which may feel “eternal” but has gone on for one year. One year too long, to be sure, but hardly “eternal.”
Eternal war is an eye catching headline but a very silly concept.
Too pessimistic?
Putin has little incentive to do a deal at present. A long war suits him. So what would incentivise him to negotiate?
if the Ukrainians can cut the land bridge to the Crimea and then threaten the actual bridge, they would be in a position to make the Russian position in Crimea untenable. Crimea is considered undeniably part of Russia by Putin (and most of its inhabitants). It’s loss would be unacceptable. There would be threats of escalation but also, I suspect, a renewed willingness to revisit the deal envisaged last June.
Providing the equipment for a southern offensive may make sense.
So it’s come to this. “A long war suits Putin.” Is this the same Putin who so confidently swaggered into Ukraine expecting it to collapse in a week? So now a long war with hundreds of thousands of Russian casualties suits him? That may have been true of the Russians in the 1940s, when they were invaded by Hitler. It makes no sense whatsoever when the Russians are the ones doing the invading. This was is the biggest military miscalculation we’ve seen since Hitler invaded Russia and declared war on America.
Next up will be ‘defeat for Wagner suits Putin’ or some such.
I agree with your view..this war is just one front to end omnishambles that is destroying Russian credibility even more completely than even it’s one rust bucket aircraft carrier did.
Apologists and doom mongers can’t keep up with an Alan Partridge style ‘Aha!’ every time something else goes wrong, and calling it all part of a deeper plan.
The main outcome I can see is Russia is becoming a client state of China and the land China will end up taking in the East will be far larger than even the wide open spaces of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea.
Next up will be ‘defeat for Wagner suits Putin’ or some such.
I agree with your view..this war is just one front to end omnishambles that is destroying Russian credibility even more completely than even it’s one rust bucket aircraft carrier did.
Apologists and doom mongers can’t keep up with an Alan Partridge style ‘Aha!’ every time something else goes wrong, and calling it all part of a deeper plan.
The main outcome I can see is Russia is becoming a client state of China and the land China will end up taking in the East will be far larger than even the wide open spaces of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea.
So it’s come to this. “A long war suits Putin.” Is this the same Putin who so confidently swaggered into Ukraine expecting it to collapse in a week? So now a long war with hundreds of thousands of Russian casualties suits him? That may have been true of the Russians in the 1940s, when they were invaded by Hitler. It makes no sense whatsoever when the Russians are the ones doing the invading. This was is the biggest military miscalculation we’ve seen since Hitler invaded Russia and declared war on America.
Too pessimistic?
Putin has little incentive to do a deal at present. A long war suits him. So what would incentivise him to negotiate?
if the Ukrainians can cut the land bridge to the Crimea and then threaten the actual bridge, they would be in a position to make the Russian position in Crimea untenable. Crimea is considered undeniably part of Russia by Putin (and most of its inhabitants). It’s loss would be unacceptable. There would be threats of escalation but also, I suspect, a renewed willingness to revisit the deal envisaged last June.
Providing the equipment for a southern offensive may make sense.
Are we prepared for Russia to have the biggest Western weapons cache in history at their disposal if they eventually take control of the Ukraine?
Bigger than the Taliban have?
This needs talking about more. However remote, there is a non-zero risk of Ukrainian collapse. Like any military risk, it needs estimating and contingencies put in place.
When do “loaned” assets – including NATO advisors – default to being NATO assets? Would NATO attempt a recovery operation of its advisors or materiel? How would escalation be avoided?
We ran out of Afghanistan when we lost interest and allowed a rout of the Afghan army by the Taliban we’d been fighting for 2 decades. I doubt NATO are going to sustain the Ukrainian army forever – what happens when the support stops?
Well Ukraine now has the biggest cache of Soviet weapons on the planet, so a few more won’t matter.
Now that’s a unique bootlicker argument for ending aid to Ukraine. Kudos for originality.
Stop “rocking the boat”, my BAE shares are doing very well.
Stop “rocking the boat”, my BAE shares are doing very well.
Bigger than the Taliban have?
This needs talking about more. However remote, there is a non-zero risk of Ukrainian collapse. Like any military risk, it needs estimating and contingencies put in place.
When do “loaned” assets – including NATO advisors – default to being NATO assets? Would NATO attempt a recovery operation of its advisors or materiel? How would escalation be avoided?
We ran out of Afghanistan when we lost interest and allowed a rout of the Afghan army by the Taliban we’d been fighting for 2 decades. I doubt NATO are going to sustain the Ukrainian army forever – what happens when the support stops?
Well Ukraine now has the biggest cache of Soviet weapons on the planet, so a few more won’t matter.
Now that’s a unique bootlicker argument for ending aid to Ukraine. Kudos for originality.
Are we prepared for Russia to have the biggest Western weapons cache in history at their disposal if they eventually take control of the Ukraine?
America is willing to fight to the last Ukrainian. Or the first American, whichever comes first. As long as we don’t have to make any sacrifices, we’re all for defeating Russia. But if it means American lives or (our) economic adversity, we’ll accept whatever terms Russia offers.
America has come a long way from the days of Vietnam and even further from those of Korea. I doubt even a direct attack on American soil, like Pearl Harbor, could raise American anger high enough and for and long enough to sustain a serious war, or even a minor one, if it meant any interference with football season.
Since the US won’t send in its army, what’s your point?
I said we wouldn’t send in our tanks. Then I said we wouldn’t send in our air planes. But surely I’m right about our army.
My point is that America is unwilling to assume a perceptible burden to help Ukraine. It is willing to spend Ukrainian blood without limit as long as the Ukrainians are.
What I didn’t say, but will now is this: This is morally indefensible. If the stakes are what we say they are, America should fight, treaty or no. If Ukraine is all that stands between freedom and slavery, we should have sent the army long ago.
But we won’t. Either because the conflict is not the threat it is portrayed to be or we don’t want to be inconvenienced.
If I’m right, a negotiated peace should be sought. Maybe China’s plan is a starter. Better now than another 8000 civilian lives later.
Nuclear powers tend to avoid direct conflict, for obvious reasons.
Your choice between “faux gung ho” and surrender is a false one.
Nuclear powers tend to avoid direct conflict, for obvious reasons.
Your choice between “faux gung ho” and surrender is a false one.
I said we wouldn’t send in our tanks. Then I said we wouldn’t send in our air planes. But surely I’m right about our army.
My point is that America is unwilling to assume a perceptible burden to help Ukraine. It is willing to spend Ukrainian blood without limit as long as the Ukrainians are.
What I didn’t say, but will now is this: This is morally indefensible. If the stakes are what we say they are, America should fight, treaty or no. If Ukraine is all that stands between freedom and slavery, we should have sent the army long ago.
But we won’t. Either because the conflict is not the threat it is portrayed to be or we don’t want to be inconvenienced.
If I’m right, a negotiated peace should be sought. Maybe China’s plan is a starter. Better now than another 8000 civilian lives later.
What you means is YOU would accept any terms Russia offers. Ukrainians feel differently. And their neighbours to the West support them, because they know something you clearly refuse to accept.
That’s not what I said. I said America won’t risk its own discomfort in supporting Ukraine. We haven’t experienced any so far. And there are many Americans who are accepting more than discomfort by contributing personally to the Ukrainian cause. But the limits of this are so severe that those sacrifices cannot alter the conflict’s course.
In the meantime, Ukraine is being reduced to 1945 Germany. Ukrainians are dying and suffering. Even if willingly endured, how long can this be allowed to go on?
And how long can a war in Europe be confined to the original belligerents? German and Russian tanks dueling on the steppes is not a new story. Air war faultlessly confined to Ukrainian airspace. Perfect anticipation of the adversary’s goals and limits.
What will future historians say was the point where events went out of control?
As you said above, as long as the Ukrainians are willing to die and the war doesn’t inconvenience Americans too much, then it will continue. It has added to U.S. inflation, but I don’t think Americans see the linkage.
Tell it all to Putin. He could stop the war he started in 60 seconds.
As you said above, as long as the Ukrainians are willing to die and the war doesn’t inconvenience Americans too much, then it will continue. It has added to U.S. inflation, but I don’t think Americans see the linkage.
Tell it all to Putin. He could stop the war he started in 60 seconds.
That’s not what I said. I said America won’t risk its own discomfort in supporting Ukraine. We haven’t experienced any so far. And there are many Americans who are accepting more than discomfort by contributing personally to the Ukrainian cause. But the limits of this are so severe that those sacrifices cannot alter the conflict’s course.
In the meantime, Ukraine is being reduced to 1945 Germany. Ukrainians are dying and suffering. Even if willingly endured, how long can this be allowed to go on?
And how long can a war in Europe be confined to the original belligerents? German and Russian tanks dueling on the steppes is not a new story. Air war faultlessly confined to Ukrainian airspace. Perfect anticipation of the adversary’s goals and limits.
What will future historians say was the point where events went out of control?
Since the US won’t send in its army, what’s your point?
What you means is YOU would accept any terms Russia offers. Ukrainians feel differently. And their neighbours to the West support them, because they know something you clearly refuse to accept.
America is willing to fight to the last Ukrainian. Or the first American, whichever comes first. As long as we don’t have to make any sacrifices, we’re all for defeating Russia. But if it means American lives or (our) economic adversity, we’ll accept whatever terms Russia offers.
America has come a long way from the days of Vietnam and even further from those of Korea. I doubt even a direct attack on American soil, like Pearl Harbor, could raise American anger high enough and for and long enough to sustain a serious war, or even a minor one, if it meant any interference with football season.
A nice glass of iced Vodka and Novichok for Mr Putin might solve the problem, as his successor could then end the war honorably and withdraw from Ukraine, blaming a warmongering predecessor.
That excluded, and the West now engaged as it is, it seems probable that the only solution is to provide the Ukrainians with sufficient weaponry to push the Russians back over their border but no further, and then do a deal.
That deal may take the form of allowing fair and overseen referenda in the Donbass region and possibly creating small buffer states there. Ukraine was originally amenable to this sort of idea and should still be.
As mentioned in the article, the West will also presumably have to arm Ukraine to the teeth in perpetuity, to prevent a future repeat attempt by Russia.
I suspect that Russia will stop once it has complete control of the Donbass up to and including Odessa. As for continual arming of Ukraine, there are 2 issues: first the Ukrainians have to have the manpower and training to use these; second there is only so much the West can give, given that US and others are already running out of ammunition. I suspect the staying power of Russia is a lot greater than that of the West.
I also believe that the unfortunate end result will be an economically weakened West and an emergent and strong Eastern block. The US has bitten off more than it can chew. As they say “go woke, go broke”. And guaranteed that Taiwan is next. The interesting thing about Taiwan is that if you talk to Chinese in the US (either naturalized or permanent residents) they all seem to believe that Taiwan is part of China and should be integrated into the CCP. Why is beyond me, because if I were them I wouldn’t care one bit, but they sure seem to.
Odessa isn’t in the Donbass ! (“complete control of the Donbass up to and including Odessa”).
This war is strengthening the West and NATO.
Now, did you answer my question from 2 days ago about Russia/Putin’s war aims yet ? It is rather confusing that you claimed you knew for certain what these are and then pop up again using vague words like “suspect” about Russia’s objectives. Which is it ?
Tally-ho!
The Russians won’t stop until they take Odessa, nobody from the Kremlin has said this, but its a very safe assumption
The Russians are winning
That’s why they left Kherson and Kharkiv oblast. They were winning too much.
Winning what?
That’s why they left Kherson and Kharkiv oblast. They were winning too much.
Winning what?
I’m well aware that Odessa is not in the Donbass. But I’m also aware, as perhaps you are not, that Odessa is a Russian City. Not just founded by Catherine the Great, but the inhabitants there only speak Russian, not Ukrainian).
As for Putin’s war aims, obviously there is no way I can be absolutely certain since I don’t have a way to get in his head nor am I privy to the goings on in the Kremlin. But as I said, I suspect the Russians will be done once they have the whole of the Donbass plus Odessa.
As far as I’m concerned, Ukraine should be partitioned into two: the western half with close associations to Poland, and the Eastern half with close association to Russia. And both East and West Ukraine should be neutral countries, unless the East wants to be part of Russia. For sure, in Crimea they absolutely wanted to be part of Russia.
Spot on – one of the few sensible commentators on this site.
idjit supporting bootlicker.
Please don’t drag Unherd down to the level of the UK gutter press. There are plenty of other places to spew insults and ad hominem attacks if that’s your thing.
Please don’t drag Unherd down to the level of the UK gutter press. There are plenty of other places to spew insults and ad hominem attacks if that’s your thing.
idjit supporting bootlicker.
Odessa most definitely not a Russian city. You been there and spoken to folks? I somewhat doubt it. Are you suggesting Ukraine gives up safe and secure access to the Black sea? Anyway Putin would have as much chance of holding onto Odessa, not that he’ll ever take it, as Soviets did of Kabul.
On what evidential basis do you say Crimeans want to be Russian? Now were it poss in the future to hold a plebiscite that was fair it could be a way forward longer term, but little suggesting Putin wants to risk that. That probably says it all.
Zelensky speaks Russian. Americans speak English. Thus you’ll be contending Brits ok to invade and take back the 13 colonies next.
If you speak Russian, according to him, you are owned by Putin. See Gogol’s Dead Souls.
Ulp, come to think of it, I know Russian, so…
“On what evidential basis do you say Crimeans want to be Russian”
Here US gov poll of 2013:
https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf
But you guys don’t believe US government propaganda, do you ?
But you guys don’t believe US government propaganda, do you ?
If you speak Russian, according to him, you are owned by Putin. See Gogol’s Dead Souls.
Ulp, come to think of it, I know Russian, so…
“On what evidential basis do you say Crimeans want to be Russian”
Here US gov poll of 2013:
https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf
And what if the people living there don’t want that, overwhelmingly? Fortunately you are not in charge of killing Ukrainians.
They’re backwards offensive is obviously leading Ukraine into an ingenious trap.
Why didn’t Orwell add that
“Losing is Winning!”?
Won’t be long now…
Yes of course it’s only Donbass and Odessa, which is why they sent a huge column of tanks to Kyiv in the early days of their unjustified invasion.
So my question from 3 days ago was too difficult for you ! You said you knew the inside gen on Russia/Putin’s war aims. You were absolutely certain about that 3 days ago. Now you admit you don’t actually know.
What happened to change your mind ?
Spot on – one of the few sensible commentators on this site.
Odessa most definitely not a Russian city. You been there and spoken to folks? I somewhat doubt it. Are you suggesting Ukraine gives up safe and secure access to the Black sea? Anyway Putin would have as much chance of holding onto Odessa, not that he’ll ever take it, as Soviets did of Kabul.
On what evidential basis do you say Crimeans want to be Russian? Now were it poss in the future to hold a plebiscite that was fair it could be a way forward longer term, but little suggesting Putin wants to risk that. That probably says it all.
Zelensky speaks Russian. Americans speak English. Thus you’ll be contending Brits ok to invade and take back the 13 colonies next.
And what if the people living there don’t want that, overwhelmingly? Fortunately you are not in charge of killing Ukrainians.
They’re backwards offensive is obviously leading Ukraine into an ingenious trap.
Why didn’t Orwell add that
“Losing is Winning!”?
Won’t be long now…
Yes of course it’s only Donbass and Odessa, which is why they sent a huge column of tanks to Kyiv in the early days of their unjustified invasion.
So my question from 3 days ago was too difficult for you ! You said you knew the inside gen on Russia/Putin’s war aims. You were absolutely certain about that 3 days ago. Now you admit you don’t actually know.
What happened to change your mind ?
Peter, you are very persuasive I must say. Why so? It’s not a secret, what’s the goal. No NATO-controlled Ukraine. That’s it. It might be no Ukraine state after all, that depends on how it goes.
All other goals are secondary, it seems.
As of it is now, four former regions are annexed and Ukraine lost them forever. If this continues it would be more. It was said that you got to take Mr Putin’s offer as soon as possible because every next one will be less favorable. Implementing Minsk (federalization of the state) and keeping Donbass in Ukraine — that what Zelenskii should take. Now it’s less and going to be less. If he takes what is on the table now at least he would keep some Black sea ports.
Nonsense. The four “former regions” aren’t even completely Russian occupied. The “annexation” has no legal status and no one outside Russia pays any attention to this nonsense.
May I remind you that Ukraine was noit “NATO-controlled” before Putin invaded. He’s going a really smart way about trying to keep it so, isn’t he ?
Nonsense. The four “former regions” aren’t even completely Russian occupied. The “annexation” has no legal status and no one outside Russia pays any attention to this nonsense.
May I remind you that Ukraine was noit “NATO-controlled” before Putin invaded. He’s going a really smart way about trying to keep it so, isn’t he ?
Tally-ho!
The Russians won’t stop until they take Odessa, nobody from the Kremlin has said this, but its a very safe assumption
The Russians are winning
I’m well aware that Odessa is not in the Donbass. But I’m also aware, as perhaps you are not, that Odessa is a Russian City. Not just founded by Catherine the Great, but the inhabitants there only speak Russian, not Ukrainian).
As for Putin’s war aims, obviously there is no way I can be absolutely certain since I don’t have a way to get in his head nor am I privy to the goings on in the Kremlin. But as I said, I suspect the Russians will be done once they have the whole of the Donbass plus Odessa.
As far as I’m concerned, Ukraine should be partitioned into two: the western half with close associations to Poland, and the Eastern half with close association to Russia. And both East and West Ukraine should be neutral countries, unless the East wants to be part of Russia. For sure, in Crimea they absolutely wanted to be part of Russia.
Peter, you are very persuasive I must say. Why so? It’s not a secret, what’s the goal. No NATO-controlled Ukraine. That’s it. It might be no Ukraine state after all, that depends on how it goes.
All other goals are secondary, it seems.
As of it is now, four former regions are annexed and Ukraine lost them forever. If this continues it would be more. It was said that you got to take Mr Putin’s offer as soon as possible because every next one will be less favorable. Implementing Minsk (federalization of the state) and keeping Donbass in Ukraine — that what Zelenskii should take. Now it’s less and going to be less. If he takes what is on the table now at least he would keep some Black sea ports.
I don’t know what Chinese people you know in the U.S., but I know plenty of young Taiwanese there, as my son is dating a Taiwanese girl. Her parents sent her to U.S. to finish her education, like many Taiwanese parents do. All of these young people are totally opposed to CCP taking over their Island. The young Taiwanese are very similar in their loathing of the CCP as the young people of Hong Kong.
Taiwan does belong to China. It exists today only because of American protection. Call it part of China’s own version of our Monroe Doctrine. Good for the gander and all that.
As for a weakened West, I do not see that as an unfortunate outcome. As an American, I have wished for the end of American imperialist adventurism ever since Viet Nam. So far, nothing has slaked our addiction. I do look forward to the day that we come to our senses, and it seems that the only way will be the collapse of our exceptionalist delusions.
Of special interest to me is a new phenomenon: Our Progressives (aka the Squad including Omar, Jayapal and Cortez) has joined the pro war camp. And surprisingly, the anti-war sentiment is coming from Republicans Gaetz and Greene among others. Progressivism, always insincere virtue signaling, now stands exposed for the fraud it has always been.
This collapse now paves the way for a true alternative, opposition party to emerge. Thee cheers for the impending collapse of the Democratic party. Oz has stepped out from behind the curtain.
Taiwan does not ‘belong’ to China! I suggest that you read up on the history of the island of Formosa. It was only conquered by the Chinese empire relatively recently (early 20th C? I can’t be bothered to look it up). Nice bit of racism on internal US politics as well.
I see a lot of stupidity in that comment, but no racism.
“Progressives (aka the Squad including Omar, Jayapal and Cortez)”
“Progressives (aka the Squad including Omar, Jayapal and Cortez)”
I see a lot of stupidity in that comment, but no racism.
Democratic Taiwan belongs to its people, not to Chinese communist aggressors.
Taiwan does not ‘belong’ to China! I suggest that you read up on the history of the island of Formosa. It was only conquered by the Chinese empire relatively recently (early 20th C? I can’t be bothered to look it up). Nice bit of racism on internal US politics as well.
Democratic Taiwan belongs to its people, not to Chinese communist aggressors.
The idea that the U.S. will soon “run out of ammunition” while the Russians can keep fighting indefinitely (presumably with a perpetually unlimited amount of ammo) is an idiotic fantasy that ignores American industrial might, which is the same miscalculation Hitler made when he declared war on the U.S.
And the idiotic Japanese from the Land of Nipon!
And the idiotic Japanese from the Land of Nipon!
This is the best, most objective and realistic analysis of the situation in Ukraine that I’ve read in the comment sections of these latest UnHerd articles about the war.
The idea that Putin intended to capture Kiev in 2-days or 3-weeks or whatever is mostly an idea propagated by US intelligence based loosely on a comment Putin made early on in a conversation with French officials. Putin indicated that he could do it. He likely could have, but it became quite obvious to anyone with an objective mind that the Russians did not march into Ukraine with that intent in mind. They didn’t take out critical infrastructure, they left open safety corridors for refugees, and honestly, it seemed to me as though they feinted a run at Kiev in order to obtain their real objective, which was the liberation of the eastern, mostly Russian-speaking regions. This also lines up with what Putin has intimated in multiple communications.
And I’m not sure where everyone gets this idea that Putin has these grand imperialistic aims to enlarge the Russian Federation. He’s outlined what is admittedly a long and complicated relationship with Ukraine and how Russia feels a unique unity with The Ukraine. There are indeed countries with seemingly unquenchable imperialistic aims taking part in this conflict, but Russia is not one of them.
For more than 20-years, the Russians have been clear that Ukraine’s flirtation with NATO was a red-line in the sand for them. This should be quite obvious if you look objectively at the ramifications of cruise and other missiles on their border pointed at and within 5 minutes of Russia’s major economic and militarily strategic targets. And it really doesn’t matter one lick whether anybody in the West thinks they should be worried about it or not. They believe it’s a security threat and that’s that. Besides, we all know the US would have invaded a sovereign country under far less provocation, that is, that represented far less of a direct threat. How? History tells us so….repeatedly.
It’s time to start negotiating a peace and to stop the unnecessary suffering of literally millions of people.
Usually I will persevere and read views I quickly realise aren’t close to my own, but moment I saw your input suggesting Putin didn’t send armoured brigades down the main highway to Kyiv or attack Hostemel airport on day 1 I switched off. There is only so many times one can read Putin propaganda nonsense on UnHerd.
Your “analysis” might make a semblance of sense if Ukraine were actually in NATO. But Putin invaded even though Ukraine wasn’t in NATO, and NATO had no plans to include it. Now, however, I wouldn’t be surprised if it were fast tracked once this miscalculation of an invasion is ended for good.
Ukraine committed in its constitution in 2019 that it would join NATO and the EU as soon as possible. NATO told Ukraine in 2008 that it would be included in NATO, though it did not give a timeline.
Ukraine committed in its constitution in 2019 that it would join NATO and the EU as soon as possible. NATO told Ukraine in 2008 that it would be included in NATO, though it did not give a timeline.
Usually I will persevere and read views I quickly realise aren’t close to my own, but moment I saw your input suggesting Putin didn’t send armoured brigades down the main highway to Kyiv or attack Hostemel airport on day 1 I switched off. There is only so many times one can read Putin propaganda nonsense on UnHerd.
Your “analysis” might make a semblance of sense if Ukraine were actually in NATO. But Putin invaded even though Ukraine wasn’t in NATO, and NATO had no plans to include it. Now, however, I wouldn’t be surprised if it were fast tracked once this miscalculation of an invasion is ended for good.
The Taiwanese people feel very differently, though I’m sure you’re as oblivious to their desire to remain free as you are to the fate of the countries Russia used to dominate and would like to again.
It has been US policy since 1979 that Taiwan is a part of the People’s Republic of China, not an independent country.
It has been US policy since 1979 that Taiwan is a part of the People’s Republic of China, not an independent country.
Odessa isn’t in the Donbass ! (“complete control of the Donbass up to and including Odessa”).
This war is strengthening the West and NATO.
Now, did you answer my question from 2 days ago about Russia/Putin’s war aims yet ? It is rather confusing that you claimed you knew for certain what these are and then pop up again using vague words like “suspect” about Russia’s objectives. Which is it ?
I don’t know what Chinese people you know in the U.S., but I know plenty of young Taiwanese there, as my son is dating a Taiwanese girl. Her parents sent her to U.S. to finish her education, like many Taiwanese parents do. All of these young people are totally opposed to CCP taking over their Island. The young Taiwanese are very similar in their loathing of the CCP as the young people of Hong Kong.
Taiwan does belong to China. It exists today only because of American protection. Call it part of China’s own version of our Monroe Doctrine. Good for the gander and all that.
As for a weakened West, I do not see that as an unfortunate outcome. As an American, I have wished for the end of American imperialist adventurism ever since Viet Nam. So far, nothing has slaked our addiction. I do look forward to the day that we come to our senses, and it seems that the only way will be the collapse of our exceptionalist delusions.
Of special interest to me is a new phenomenon: Our Progressives (aka the Squad including Omar, Jayapal and Cortez) has joined the pro war camp. And surprisingly, the anti-war sentiment is coming from Republicans Gaetz and Greene among others. Progressivism, always insincere virtue signaling, now stands exposed for the fraud it has always been.
This collapse now paves the way for a true alternative, opposition party to emerge. Thee cheers for the impending collapse of the Democratic party. Oz has stepped out from behind the curtain.
The idea that the U.S. will soon “run out of ammunition” while the Russians can keep fighting indefinitely (presumably with a perpetually unlimited amount of ammo) is an idiotic fantasy that ignores American industrial might, which is the same miscalculation Hitler made when he declared war on the U.S.
This is the best, most objective and realistic analysis of the situation in Ukraine that I’ve read in the comment sections of these latest UnHerd articles about the war.
The idea that Putin intended to capture Kiev in 2-days or 3-weeks or whatever is mostly an idea propagated by US intelligence based loosely on a comment Putin made early on in a conversation with French officials. Putin indicated that he could do it. He likely could have, but it became quite obvious to anyone with an objective mind that the Russians did not march into Ukraine with that intent in mind. They didn’t take out critical infrastructure, they left open safety corridors for refugees, and honestly, it seemed to me as though they feinted a run at Kiev in order to obtain their real objective, which was the liberation of the eastern, mostly Russian-speaking regions. This also lines up with what Putin has intimated in multiple communications.
And I’m not sure where everyone gets this idea that Putin has these grand imperialistic aims to enlarge the Russian Federation. He’s outlined what is admittedly a long and complicated relationship with Ukraine and how Russia feels a unique unity with The Ukraine. There are indeed countries with seemingly unquenchable imperialistic aims taking part in this conflict, but Russia is not one of them.
For more than 20-years, the Russians have been clear that Ukraine’s flirtation with NATO was a red-line in the sand for them. This should be quite obvious if you look objectively at the ramifications of cruise and other missiles on their border pointed at and within 5 minutes of Russia’s major economic and militarily strategic targets. And it really doesn’t matter one lick whether anybody in the West thinks they should be worried about it or not. They believe it’s a security threat and that’s that. Besides, we all know the US would have invaded a sovereign country under far less provocation, that is, that represented far less of a direct threat. How? History tells us so….repeatedly.
It’s time to start negotiating a peace and to stop the unnecessary suffering of literally millions of people.
The Taiwanese people feel very differently, though I’m sure you’re as oblivious to their desire to remain free as you are to the fate of the countries Russia used to dominate and would like to again.
I suspect that Russia will stop once it has complete control of the Donbass up to and including Odessa. As for continual arming of Ukraine, there are 2 issues: first the Ukrainians have to have the manpower and training to use these; second there is only so much the West can give, given that US and others are already running out of ammunition. I suspect the staying power of Russia is a lot greater than that of the West.
I also believe that the unfortunate end result will be an economically weakened West and an emergent and strong Eastern block. The US has bitten off more than it can chew. As they say “go woke, go broke”. And guaranteed that Taiwan is next. The interesting thing about Taiwan is that if you talk to Chinese in the US (either naturalized or permanent residents) they all seem to believe that Taiwan is part of China and should be integrated into the CCP. Why is beyond me, because if I were them I wouldn’t care one bit, but they sure seem to.
A nice glass of iced Vodka and Novichok for Mr Putin might solve the problem, as his successor could then end the war honorably and withdraw from Ukraine, blaming a warmongering predecessor.
That excluded, and the West now engaged as it is, it seems probable that the only solution is to provide the Ukrainians with sufficient weaponry to push the Russians back over their border but no further, and then do a deal.
That deal may take the form of allowing fair and overseen referenda in the Donbass region and possibly creating small buffer states there. Ukraine was originally amenable to this sort of idea and should still be.
As mentioned in the article, the West will also presumably have to arm Ukraine to the teeth in perpetuity, to prevent a future repeat attempt by Russia.
If only Russia would ever have stated their goals, and that there is no one on the Russian side to state Russia’s position. So much speculation could be eliminated if only…
Why would the Russians reveal all their goals to the World, better to keep us guessing
The Russians are winning
Medvedev today stated that Russia needs to drive Ukrainians back to the Polish border. Nice eh, come back Stalin.
Yeah, you don’t want to deal with a pissed off Russian bear. Especially after stealing his $300B . NATO should not get involved in that sh*t. Now they consider EU a part of the war and it might be the time. I mean, the right time to start digging. I mean, a bomb shelter, dammit.
Well isn’t it the done thing, ie entirely reasonable justice, for a criminal’s assets to be used for the restitution of damage he has caused? Putin’s continuing devastation of Ukraine will cost a lot more than $300bn to sort out. Not what I call stealing – that is what you would call the Russian carting off of Ukrainian goods and grain (and children).
Well isn’t it the done thing, ie entirely reasonable justice, for a criminal’s assets to be used for the restitution of damage he has caused? Putin’s continuing devastation of Ukraine will cost a lot more than $300bn to sort out. Not what I call stealing – that is what you would call the Russian carting off of Ukrainian goods and grain (and children).
Of course the bootlickers won’t have anything to say about that. And wasn’t he Russian president for a while, being the top Putin acolyte.
You have a view. Other views make you angry. This is the wrong forum for you.
Thanks for the advice. Now get lost.
Thanks for the advice. Now get lost.
You have a view. Other views make you angry. This is the wrong forum for you.
Yeah, you don’t want to deal with a pissed off Russian bear. Especially after stealing his $300B . NATO should not get involved in that sh*t. Now they consider EU a part of the war and it might be the time. I mean, the right time to start digging. I mean, a bomb shelter, dammit.
Of course the bootlickers won’t have anything to say about that. And wasn’t he Russian president for a while, being the top Putin acolyte.
Surely using up most of Putin’s men in costly frontal assaults will help him much better when Ukraine attacks in the Spring. That’s why farmers wisely ate their seed corn in winter.
The fewer the mobiks the better they will defend.
That’s why England won the battle of Maldon.
I haven’t found the strength to try to decipher that muddle of a comment, but I do know that referencing a battle 1100 years ago between Anglo-Saxons and Vikings that we know about only through fragments of a poem is no way to analyze a very modern war.
You DO know who actually won, don’t you?
yeah, so what?
yeah, so what?
You DO know who actually won, don’t you?
I haven’t found the strength to try to decipher that muddle of a comment, but I do know that referencing a battle 1100 years ago between Anglo-Saxons and Vikings that we know about only through fragments of a poem is no way to analyze a very modern war.
Yes their 1-week war is now a year in and counting. But hey, they’re “winning.” Idjit.
Medvedev today stated that Russia needs to drive Ukrainians back to the Polish border. Nice eh, come back Stalin.
Surely using up most of Putin’s men in costly frontal assaults will help him much better when Ukraine attacks in the Spring. That’s why farmers wisely ate their seed corn in winter.
The fewer the mobiks the better they will defend.
That’s why England won the battle of Maldon.
Yes their 1-week war is now a year in and counting. But hey, they’re “winning.” Idjit.
They did state their goals: The de-Naz*fication and de-militarisation of Ukraine.
Why would the Russians reveal all their goals to the World, better to keep us guessing
The Russians are winning
They did state their goals: The de-Naz*fication and de-militarisation of Ukraine.
If only Russia would ever have stated their goals, and that there is no one on the Russian side to state Russia’s position. So much speculation could be eliminated if only…
Very muddled understanding of this war, and thus may well genuinely reflect muddled UK thinking about this conflict.
It chiefly consists of a vague belief that there is some massive Russia army beyond the Urals, just waiting to pounce on little Ukraine.
Fact is, the regular Russian army is pretty much gone. The 300,000 mobiks have never received even the minimum training they need to take ground. Putin dare not call up more, and his army is reduced to using early Cold War vehicles.
The more he attacks now, the more likely it is that a Ukrainian offensive in Spring will succeed.
The natural objection to this is:
“I don’t know anything about all this military stuff, so it can’t be important. Putin says Russia is the same as the SU…And that doc I once saw said the Soviets had a lot of men and tanks, so it still must be true…”
“So now I just spout out my authentic gut feelings.”
“Because looking up real stuff is sooo last century.”
How much do they pay you Martin
Do you get paid per word ?
Mr. Walsh, It seems that we are here a club of people with different views, devotions and emotional waves towards the current war events. Difference of the opinions is a true value here. Mr logan is a devoted pro-Ukrainian patriot, and he has all rights to be. His login to unherd.com is as good as yours and mine. I am with you, Mr Walsh and I see Mr logan’s “arguments” fizzling most of the time, but I am asking you if we please not get it as low as to the personal level.. Appreciate it!
Thanks for a gentlemanly response.
Sadly, I don’t get paid at all.
Soros is too cheap.
Almost nobody on here gets paid, however barmy we might seem to other posters.
I don’t know Soros but I doubt he is cheap. Nor are more Scots cheap than others.
I’m sure you support Ukraine from conviction. I doubt that serious WEF(or Russian for that matter) trolls spend much time and effort on Unherd, or the Spectator, or Spiked (or left wing equivalents).
Our favourite publications are not in truth so very influential.
Almost nobody on here gets paid, however barmy we might seem to other posters.
I don’t know Soros but I doubt he is cheap. Nor are more Scots cheap than others.
I’m sure you support Ukraine from conviction. I doubt that serious WEF(or Russian for that matter) trolls spend much time and effort on Unherd, or the Spectator, or Spiked (or left wing equivalents).
Our favourite publications are not in truth so very influential.
Thanks for a gentlemanly response.
Sadly, I don’t get paid at all.
Soros is too cheap.
You sound like you’re on an RT payroll yourself.
I deeply appreciate it when you can’t think of an evidence-based reply.
It is what I work for each day!
You don’t like evidence based replies. You get very uppity.
Corection:
I don’t like replies based on evidence from garbage Russian sites designed to fool the simple.
Corection:
I don’t like replies based on evidence from garbage Russian sites designed to fool the simple.
You don’t like evidence based replies. You get very uppity.
Mr. Walsh, It seems that we are here a club of people with different views, devotions and emotional waves towards the current war events. Difference of the opinions is a true value here. Mr logan is a devoted pro-Ukrainian patriot, and he has all rights to be. His login to unherd.com is as good as yours and mine. I am with you, Mr Walsh and I see Mr logan’s “arguments” fizzling most of the time, but I am asking you if we please not get it as low as to the personal level.. Appreciate it!
You sound like you’re on an RT payroll yourself.
I deeply appreciate it when you can’t think of an evidence-based reply.
It is what I work for each day!
Surely this is the worry that everybody has. If you are correct, and you sound like you know, are you expecting Putin et al to just smile, back off and go home saying, “Sorry, folks”? Russia has better weapons than anyone in Europe; the USA could win the argument once and for all with its weapons. Russia would be destroyed. But would everyone in Europe live happily ever after?
You might know more than me about weapons but there is no reason to believe that you know more about human nature.
How much do they pay you Martin
Do you get paid per word ?
Surely this is the worry that everybody has. If you are correct, and you sound like you know, are you expecting Putin et al to just smile, back off and go home saying, “Sorry, folks”? Russia has better weapons than anyone in Europe; the USA could win the argument once and for all with its weapons. Russia would be destroyed. But would everyone in Europe live happily ever after?
You might know more than me about weapons but there is no reason to believe that you know more about human nature.
Very muddled understanding of this war, and thus may well genuinely reflect muddled UK thinking about this conflict.
It chiefly consists of a vague belief that there is some massive Russia army beyond the Urals, just waiting to pounce on little Ukraine.
Fact is, the regular Russian army is pretty much gone. The 300,000 mobiks have never received even the minimum training they need to take ground. Putin dare not call up more, and his army is reduced to using early Cold War vehicles.
The more he attacks now, the more likely it is that a Ukrainian offensive in Spring will succeed.
The natural objection to this is:
“I don’t know anything about all this military stuff, so it can’t be important. Putin says Russia is the same as the SU…And that doc I once saw said the Soviets had a lot of men and tanks, so it still must be true…”
“So now I just spout out my authentic gut feelings.”
“Because looking up real stuff is sooo last century.”
The negative bots are hard at work.
The negative bots are hard at work.
Who thinks today will be the start of a new Russian offensive? They have a thing for anniversaries, i.e. 6/22/‘41 and 6/22/‘44?
Their offensive started weeks ago.
Their offensive started weeks ago.
Who thinks today will be the start of a new Russian offensive? They have a thing for anniversaries, i.e. 6/22/‘41 and 6/22/‘44?
The fastest way out of this conflict is in January 2025 with a new administration in the US. The current scheming psychopaths in the insectarium called Washington have no reverse gear, and as sure as Shinola they don’t give a crap about Europe or the UK. You’ll need to hold your breath until then.
Agree if you live in the USA but not if you live in Europe. The USA has a very long history of fighting on other peoples’ territory. They may have helped but said territory was destroyed in the process.
Agree if you live in the USA but not if you live in Europe. The USA has a very long history of fighting on other peoples’ territory. They may have helped but said territory was destroyed in the process.
The fastest way out of this conflict is in January 2025 with a new administration in the US. The current scheming psychopaths in the insectarium called Washington have no reverse gear, and as sure as Shinola they don’t give a crap about Europe or the UK. You’ll need to hold your breath until then.
‘The only route to a settlement as they all see it, is for the West to squeeze the heat out of the conflict by giving Ukraine what it needs to convince Russia it cannot win.’ Not how I see it. China already has a peace plan which many Ukrainians would have taken. They can’t have it, of course, because Zelensky is a particular type- one which the woke Western leaders are very fond of. His ego and lack of judgement mean he won’t do what is right for Ukraine, but what is desired by Washington D.C. and London. I have followed the fighting- Ukraine has expended most of its attacking capacity- and although the Russians have too, the Russians are famously stubborn. Call it quits. Give Russia a proper peace treaty, and stop trying to wish Russia off the map. It isn’t going anywhere.
‘The only route to a settlement as they all see it, is for the West to squeeze the heat out of the conflict by giving Ukraine what it needs to convince Russia it cannot win.’ Not how I see it. China already has a peace plan which many Ukrainians would have taken. They can’t have it, of course, because Zelensky is a particular type- one which the woke Western leaders are very fond of. His ego and lack of judgement mean he won’t do what is right for Ukraine, but what is desired by Washington D.C. and London. I have followed the fighting- Ukraine has expended most of its attacking capacity- and although the Russians have too, the Russians are famously stubborn. Call it quits. Give Russia a proper peace treaty, and stop trying to wish Russia off the map. It isn’t going anywhere.
English gonna be English
You’ve 10 tanks and 10 planes that can’t land on your “carrier”. Limited control over your imports. As much help as you were to Poland.
Are you from the Emerald Isle may I ask?
If he is, he can proudly say that his country sat out the whole of WWII whilst the Poles and British went the full distance. No one did less than Eire.
It is both ignorant and an insult to the Poles and British who died in WWII to falsely claim that Britain did nothing to defend Poland. It’s why we had to declare war on Germany after all.
But don’t let ignorance and prejudice stand in your way Ciaran.
When Putin is bumped off, they can send off a letter of condolence. They have form in that regard.
When Putin is bumped off, they can send off a letter of condolence. They have form in that regard.
If he is, he can proudly say that his country sat out the whole of WWII whilst the Poles and British went the full distance. No one did less than Eire.
It is both ignorant and an insult to the Poles and British who died in WWII to falsely claim that Britain did nothing to defend Poland. It’s why we had to declare war on Germany after all.
But don’t let ignorance and prejudice stand in your way Ciaran.
Are you from the Emerald Isle may I ask?
English gonna be English
You’ve 10 tanks and 10 planes that can’t land on your “carrier”. Limited control over your imports. As much help as you were to Poland.