She embodies the emptiness of the GOP establishment (Theo Wargo/Getty Images)
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In the run-up to the contest for a major party’s presidential nomination, a challenger emerges to run against the man widely acknowledged as that party’s standard bearer. The challenger declares that the party must be prevented from drifting too far into ideological extremes, and that only a restoration of old values can save the party from perdition. This is a description not so much of Nikki Haley but of one Henry Skillman Breckinridge, who challenged Franklin Roosevelt for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1936. Breckinridge ran on a repudiation of the New Deal and the promise of a return to the age of Grover Cleveland. He won 2.6% of the vote. In the history of that era, he is a footnote to a footnote.
This week, Nikki Haley launched her own bid for historical sub-footnote status (she is polling around 3%) when she declared her intention to seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. The former South Carolina governor and ambassador to the United Nations is the first official challenger to her former boss Donald Trump. Commentators and bookmakers are largely agreed on her campaign’s (wholly non-existent) chances. The real challenge to the former president’s hold on the GOP will most likely come from Florida governor Ron DeSantis. But his appeal to the base is that he is a younger and more disciplined version of Trump, who can essentially continue what Trump started in 2016. With her appeals to the conservatism of the George W. Bush era, Haley can be expected to play the same role as Breckinridge: the swansong of a dying breed and the harbinger of her party’s irrevocable transformation. But even so, for the future of Republican politics and strategy, there is more to Haley’s bid than the sense of inevitable defeat that infuses it.
Clues about the true significance of the Haley campaign may first be found in retracing the relationship between the 45th president and his one-time ambassador. Nimrata Nikki Randhawa was born and grew up in Bamberg, South Carolina, the daughter of Sikh immigrants who came to the US by way of Canada from India. After graduating from Clemson University, she rose through the ranks in local politics and married national guardsman Michael Haley, converting to Christianity and later getting elected as a Republican to the state legislature in 2004. Haley became a national figure upon winning the governorship of South Carolina in 2010 as part of a Tea Party wave. Combining traditional conservative positions on taxes and social issues with an energetic populist style, Haley and the Tea Party represented a revival of GOP fortunes in the Obama years. She is also remembered for her call to take down the Confederate flag in 2015 after the Charleston massacre, and was touted as a serious presidential contender in 2016 though she opted to stay out of a crowded field.
Of course, that was the year both mainstream conservatism and liberalism were shattered by the insurgent force of Trumpian populism. Going well beyond the Tea Party, the real-estate mogul openly repudiated Bush-era conservative shibboleths, such as the Iraq War and free trade, while vociferously rejecting the establishment’s relatively moderate stances on immigration. As one of the party’s leading figures, Haley faced a choice between calling out Trump on principle or falling in line. Like many establishment conservatives at that juncture, she chose wisely: she did both.
At times, Haley appeared to criticise Trump, such as during her 2016 state of the union response when, in a veiled reference to her party’s frontrunner, she warned against the temptation “to follow the siren call of the angriest voices”. When her preferred candidate, Marco Rubio, was eliminated, she indicated she would vote for Trump but made clear that she was “not a fan”. In the end, Haley managed to say just enough to maintain her image as one of the respectable Republicans, but not nearly enough to anger or alienate the nominee. After Trump’s victory, Haley accepted the offer to serve as America’s envoy to the UN: it was an appointment that seemed to confirm the newfound unity between the president and the party establishment.
At the United Nations, Ambassador Haley brought this political balancing act onto the international stage, gaining a reputation as the “good cop” of the Trump administration. This often meant adopting a of tone of rhetorical moderation to counteract Trump’s less statesmanlike instincts, while still pledging fidelity to the president. Nonetheless, Haley’s positions seemed to illustrate the distance between Trump and Bush-era foreign policy. For instance, while Trump was in favour of forging closer ties to Putin’s Russia and, at least initially, questioned the viability of Nato, Haley made a point of reaffirming the Atlantic alliance throughout her ambassadorship and took stands against Moscow and other authoritarian regimes.
When Haley stepped down in 2018, Trump praised her and she returned the favour in her memoir, in which she lauded her former boss as a strong president who was “great to work with”. A breach in relations due to January 6, after which Haley denounced Trump, was soon repaired when Haley later went back to supporting him. In 2021, she made clear she would duly make way for the former president if he opted for another run . “I would not run if President Trump ran, and I would talk to him about it… That’s something that we’ll have a conversation about.”
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SubscribeA very interesting and persuasive article, but I certainly hope the author is wrong about Trump being the Republican candidate in 2024. I believe Trump’s moment has passed and he is now too polarizing to lead the Republicans to victory. A Trump candidacy is what the Dems are praying for.
My money is still on DeSantis, although the next year and a half is a political lifetime. Anything could happen to tarnish DeSantis’s brand. Haley’s problem is she’s has no consistent platform or loyalty. As summarized in the article, she blows with the prevailing wind. That will minimize the number of enemies, but I’m not sure it inspires a strong base of support. But Haley is relatively young. A 2024 run might be no more than practice for a 2028 run.
I do not believe Trump’s moment has passed. The GOP is now increasingly “Trumpian.” The other strong candidate, DeSantis, is Trumpian.
It’s unpredictable of course, but, when I try to imagine the Trump/DeSantis showdown, I just can’t help but see Trump getting the better of our hard-working friend in the Sunshine State. Watered-down MAGA is no substitute for the real thing.
Clearly for you belief doesn’t have to be supported by evidence of any kind! Trump managed to stop in its tracks the ‘red wave’ during the midterms. He didn’t win the popular vote on any occasion that he stood for election. Why should that be an impossible bar for this apparently incredible president? The Democrats are well aware of this by the way, which is why they have sometimes given support extreme pro Trump candidates.
Of course his supporters adore him – though less so then in his heyday. But every single Democrat in the United States, plus a significant fraction of Republicans, utterly loathes him. The faith place in Trump is quite extraordinary, despite his endless betrayal of supposed allies, his entirely transactional relationship to politics, and the fact that he achieved so little in office in his own terms. Quite obviously the main cause that Trump supports is himself!
He has absolutely no chance of winning in 2024, what’s a not insignificant chance of splitting the Republicans and putting them out of power for a generation.
Spot on! Trump is loathed by too many voters to win. He was not such a bad president as many had expected, but his behaviour on 6th January makes him in many eyes unfit for office, and the Democrats will use those events over and over in the 2024 campaign. Which even Biden will win if the GOP candidate is Trump.
The Republicans need a moderate uniting candidate who will not frighten the horses and will see off the extreme Democrats or the senile Biden. A Reagan for our times. There are several out there. None called “Trump”!
We’ve had moderates; they pay lip service to the base to get elected and ignore them once in office. Feckless and loathesome. They stand for nothing but war, tax cuts for the rich, and unfettered immigration. I want them pushed out to join the dems with whom they agree on almost everything.
I can’t think of anybody who stands for that bizarre combination
I can’t think of anybody who stands for that bizarre combination
We’ve had moderates; they pay lip service to the base to get elected and ignore them once in office. Feckless and loathesome. They stand for nothing but war, tax cuts for the rich, and unfettered immigration. I want them pushed out to join the dems with whom they agree on almost everything.
Spot on! Trump is loathed by too many voters to win. He was not such a bad president as many had expected, but his behaviour on 6th January makes him in many eyes unfit for office, and the Democrats will use those events over and over in the 2024 campaign. Which even Biden will win if the GOP candidate is Trump.
The Republicans need a moderate uniting candidate who will not frighten the horses and will see off the extreme Democrats or the senile Biden. A Reagan for our times. There are several out there. None called “Trump”!
Clearly for you belief doesn’t have to be supported by evidence of any kind! Trump managed to stop in its tracks the ‘red wave’ during the midterms. He didn’t win the popular vote on any occasion that he stood for election. Why should that be an impossible bar for this apparently incredible president? The Democrats are well aware of this by the way, which is why they have sometimes given support extreme pro Trump candidates.
Of course his supporters adore him – though less so then in his heyday. But every single Democrat in the United States, plus a significant fraction of Republicans, utterly loathes him. The faith place in Trump is quite extraordinary, despite his endless betrayal of supposed allies, his entirely transactional relationship to politics, and the fact that he achieved so little in office in his own terms. Quite obviously the main cause that Trump supports is himself!
He has absolutely no chance of winning in 2024, what’s a not insignificant chance of splitting the Republicans and putting them out of power for a generation.
MAGA!
and
Ultra MAGA!
Ultra pillock!
Ultra pillock!
Trump uses Twitter to own the libs.
DeSantis uses power to stop the libs.
Trump provided the alternative to Bush neocon ideology. But, as the author says, he outsourced his administration to the very people he campaigned against in the primary. Now that Trump has blazed the trail though, DeSantis can use his governing experience to actually enact policy.
I agree with you on DeSantis and the timeframe leaving plenty of possibilities open, but I suspect he will turn out to be something of a sheep in wolves clothing even if he wins – i.e. make all the right sounds on the campaign trail, but be completely acquiescent to the (deep state) establishment once he’s in office.
This happened to Trump who, love him or hate him, was loathed in Washington for the chaos he brought to the proceedings in (the real) government.
Alas I don’t think the American election process is even capable of producing anyone willing to change the system. As an example, look at what they did to Sanders, first they sabotaged him, later they co-opted him and now he is just another shill for the democrats.
Republicans have a bigger problem: globalism, neoliberalism & neoconservatism have led us into disasters. Wasted lives & money fighting wars for democracy in a region that is steeped in anything but democracy. Dependence on China for vital supplies. Etc. What is required, I suggest, is a return to fundamental conservatism.
Two things. First Haley is not running to be the Presidential nominee but the VP nominee. She stands absolutely zero chance. Second, there is no way that Trump is going to be the nominee. He is way too old, and his time has passed. He is no longer the right person and he elicits sufficient antagonism from suburbanites (especially women) that even if he is the nominee he will loose the general election, just as he lost in 2020 to a senile democrat who stayed in his basement for essentially the whole campaign and could attract at best 20 people, most of whom were in his entourage, to the few so-called rallies/campaign stops that he held. The only realistic candidate with an excellent chance of winning is De Santis. Not only that, he has proven that he can govern, and he knows how to deal with people in the administrative state and bureaucracy.
I do not believe Trump’s moment has passed. The GOP is now increasingly “Trumpian.” The other strong candidate, DeSantis, is Trumpian.
It’s unpredictable of course, but, when I try to imagine the Trump/DeSantis showdown, I just can’t help but see Trump getting the better of our hard-working friend in the Sunshine State. Watered-down MAGA is no substitute for the real thing.
MAGA!
and
Ultra MAGA!
Trump uses Twitter to own the libs.
DeSantis uses power to stop the libs.
Trump provided the alternative to Bush neocon ideology. But, as the author says, he outsourced his administration to the very people he campaigned against in the primary. Now that Trump has blazed the trail though, DeSantis can use his governing experience to actually enact policy.
I agree with you on DeSantis and the timeframe leaving plenty of possibilities open, but I suspect he will turn out to be something of a sheep in wolves clothing even if he wins – i.e. make all the right sounds on the campaign trail, but be completely acquiescent to the (deep state) establishment once he’s in office.
This happened to Trump who, love him or hate him, was loathed in Washington for the chaos he brought to the proceedings in (the real) government.
Alas I don’t think the American election process is even capable of producing anyone willing to change the system. As an example, look at what they did to Sanders, first they sabotaged him, later they co-opted him and now he is just another shill for the democrats.
Republicans have a bigger problem: globalism, neoliberalism & neoconservatism have led us into disasters. Wasted lives & money fighting wars for democracy in a region that is steeped in anything but democracy. Dependence on China for vital supplies. Etc. What is required, I suggest, is a return to fundamental conservatism.
Two things. First Haley is not running to be the Presidential nominee but the VP nominee. She stands absolutely zero chance. Second, there is no way that Trump is going to be the nominee. He is way too old, and his time has passed. He is no longer the right person and he elicits sufficient antagonism from suburbanites (especially women) that even if he is the nominee he will loose the general election, just as he lost in 2020 to a senile democrat who stayed in his basement for essentially the whole campaign and could attract at best 20 people, most of whom were in his entourage, to the few so-called rallies/campaign stops that he held. The only realistic candidate with an excellent chance of winning is De Santis. Not only that, he has proven that he can govern, and he knows how to deal with people in the administrative state and bureaucracy.
A very interesting and persuasive article, but I certainly hope the author is wrong about Trump being the Republican candidate in 2024. I believe Trump’s moment has passed and he is now too polarizing to lead the Republicans to victory. A Trump candidacy is what the Dems are praying for.
My money is still on DeSantis, although the next year and a half is a political lifetime. Anything could happen to tarnish DeSantis’s brand. Haley’s problem is she’s has no consistent platform or loyalty. As summarized in the article, she blows with the prevailing wind. That will minimize the number of enemies, but I’m not sure it inspires a strong base of support. But Haley is relatively young. A 2024 run might be no more than practice for a 2028 run.
The article contains more about Nikki Haley than I think anyone will ever need to know. But it gets one thing right: “George W. Bush-era” Republicanism is gone, and it ain’t coming back.
Nor should it
Nor should it
The article contains more about Nikki Haley than I think anyone will ever need to know. But it gets one thing right: “George W. Bush-era” Republicanism is gone, and it ain’t coming back.
Unless and until a handful of swing counties can be made to have something resembling a clear, coherent, and legal ballot registration and tallying program, none of it matters. The onus is on local officials; the rest is WWE.
What about, you know, aiming at actually winning the popular vote, something the Republicans haven’t achieved in a Presidential election since 2004?
On that basis Trump has never won a single election – he was millions of votes behind, despite apparently being the most beloved President in history, at least according to his largely deluded fan base.
Trump being the candidate in 2024 is a sure fire way to defeat for the Republicans – he after all reduced the mid term ‘red wave’ to a ‘red ripple’.
Presidents aren’t elected by popular vote, as much as Democrats may wish otherwise. Biden’s 7 million vote margin can be entirely accounted for by the large margins he ran up in ultra-blue California and New York. MAGA Republicanism remains very competitive under the US Federal system.
He did win the popular vote in all the states that mattered for the election. He lost by less than 40k in the deciding states for the presidency. Low information voters and media demonization won the midterms; fetterman over success story surgeon oz? A dead democrat also won re-election over his challenger.
“Success story surgeon”, maybe, but Turkish citizen.
“Success story surgeon”, maybe, but Turkish citizen.
Presidents aren’t elected by popular vote, as much as Democrats may wish otherwise. Biden’s 7 million vote margin can be entirely accounted for by the large margins he ran up in ultra-blue California and New York. MAGA Republicanism remains very competitive under the US Federal system.
He did win the popular vote in all the states that mattered for the election. He lost by less than 40k in the deciding states for the presidency. Low information voters and media demonization won the midterms; fetterman over success story surgeon oz? A dead democrat also won re-election over his challenger.
What about, you know, aiming at actually winning the popular vote, something the Republicans haven’t achieved in a Presidential election since 2004?
On that basis Trump has never won a single election – he was millions of votes behind, despite apparently being the most beloved President in history, at least according to his largely deluded fan base.
Trump being the candidate in 2024 is a sure fire way to defeat for the Republicans – he after all reduced the mid term ‘red wave’ to a ‘red ripple’.
Unless and until a handful of swing counties can be made to have something resembling a clear, coherent, and legal ballot registration and tallying program, none of it matters. The onus is on local officials; the rest is WWE.
Given the performance of our many female mayors and governors, the former Secretary of State and presidential candidate, and the current VP, I say dear God, no.
Given the performance of our many female mayors and governors, the former Secretary of State and presidential candidate, and the current VP, I say dear God, no.
I have a contractor friend in North Carolina who told me he did construction work for her some time ago in South Carolina. He eventually had to pull out because his invoices weren’t being paid. Finally, after all his hard work, he was given nothing more than a plaque thanking him for his contribution.
I have a contractor friend in North Carolina who told me he did construction work for her some time ago in South Carolina. He eventually had to pull out because his invoices weren’t being paid. Finally, after all his hard work, he was given nothing more than a plaque thanking him for his contribution.
Any relation to Bill Haley? here endeth my interest…
Any relation to Bill Haley? here endeth my interest…
Oh please, give us a break! Neocons, Trump, Trump, Trump, Russia conspiracies, surface level squabbles, Trump, Trump, Trump, mere pantomime, etc. is that all you can think about commenting on? It is time commentators start talking about something else.
I like the fact that she has enough balls to take on the good-old-boy network and the obsessed Never Trumpers like Cuenco. .
She’s a female Mitt Romney, she isn’t taking on anyone. Remember her tweet after st. Floyd died?
She’s a female Mitt Romney, she isn’t taking on anyone. Remember her tweet after st. Floyd died?
Oh please, give us a break! Neocons, Trump, Trump, Trump, Russia conspiracies, surface level squabbles, Trump, Trump, Trump, mere pantomime, etc. is that all you can think about commenting on? It is time commentators start talking about something else.
I like the fact that she has enough balls to take on the good-old-boy network and the obsessed Never Trumpers like Cuenco. .
I thought it was widely believed she isn’t so much running for president as she is running for VP or Secretary of State in a Trump or DeSantis administration.
I thought it was widely believed she isn’t so much running for president as she is running for VP or Secretary of State in a Trump or DeSantis administration.
Haley, DeSantis, Pence, Trump – If the Republicans want to win in 2024 it all comes down to who can win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.
That will be the Dem candidate, whatever it is.
That will be the Dem candidate, whatever it is.
Haley, DeSantis, Pence, Trump – If the Republicans want to win in 2024 it all comes down to who can win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.
Trump is the only one who stands for democracy, true democracy – not the de Toqueville, pretend democracy.
Would you like to elaborate on the difference?
Would you like to elaborate on the difference?
Trump is the only one who stands for democracy, true democracy – not the de Toqueville, pretend democracy.
Very astute is Michael.
What I love is commentator after commentator decrying what they must deep down know to be true: neoliberalism, meaning free trade, makes the world wealthier, healthier, cleaner and safer; just does. The startling reduction in poverty worldwide from 1990 and the ascent of the Washington consensus has shown us this. Yes still we lie to our hearts and pretend we don’t know it.
What I love is commentator after commentator decrying what they must deep down know to be true: neoliberalism, meaning free trade, makes the world wealthier, healthier, cleaner and safer; just does. The startling reduction in poverty worldwide from 1990 and the ascent of the Washington consensus has shown us this. Yes still we lie to our hearts and pretend we don’t know it.