“The most fatally fascinating place in America” (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
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In 1912, James Weldon Johnson wrote that New York City is “the most fatally fascinating place in America”. The city, he explained, “sits like a great witch at the gate of the country, showing her alluring white face and hiding her crooked hands and feet under the folds of her wide garments — constantly enticing thousands from far within, and tempting those who come from across the seas to go no farther.” But that was over a century ago. Today, New York appears to be less a “great witch” than an embattled crone, with many residents fleeing to lesser cities and towns.
When the great platform of urban supremacism, The New York Times, starts publishing articles about the “urban doom loop” facing American cities, it is clear the game is up. Yes, there has been much hand-wringing by the experts and brave words about the inevitable resurgence of cities, but the trends against dense urbanity are too powerful for even the most deluded to deny.
Only by embracing change can the city hope to recover something of its past glory. In the coming decades, New York, the country’s largest city since 1790, appears destined to decline, turning into what Terry Nichols Clark has described as the “city as entertainment machine”. This new role follows H.G. Wells’s vision of cities as largely childless “places of concourse and rendezvous”, ideal for the wealthy, necessary for their servants and a beacon to the young and the culturally aware.
The tired refrain that cities always recover ignores the spectre of long-term, permanent decline. History is replete with cities fading into obscurity and even non-existence, from ancient Carthage to Ctesiphon, capital of ancient Persia, Vijayanagar in India or Great Zimbabwe in Africa. Across the West, major industrial cities have been shrinking, from Liverpool and Manchester to Osaka and Adelaide, with little prospect of rapid recovery. For over a century, growth has shifted to the suburbs and exurbs — not only in the United States, but in the old cities of Europe too, including London and Paris.
These trends accelerated during the pandemic. Even as the virus has receded, the return to the office has been slower than some predicted. And of all the nation’s major cities, New York has suffered the slowest post-pandemic job recovery, with midtown offices still half-empty.
Yet this drift was taking shape even before the pandemic. Across the US, office occupancy has been declining since 2000, while construction of new space has fallen consistently for 25 years. In 2019, before the pandemic, construction was one-third the rate of 1985 and half that of 2000. Now faced with a recession or at least a slowdown, office absorption is likely to remain at historically low rates, with the potential loss of value in central-business-district offices reaching $500 billion in New York alone.
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SubscribeI first visited NYC in 1992 and last visited in 2018, with several visits in-between. In ’92 I found NY relatively safe. In 2018 the place was an overpriced, crime-ridden toilet. It really is true, left-wing mayors are poisonous for big cities. Living in London, we’re suffering much the same problem now. Khan, like De Blasio, really thinks he can create a green urban paradise from a city designed for horses and carts.
Crime fell in New York City by 80% from 1990 to 2021. https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf
Those are the facts, not the skewed perceptions of a tourist.
Imagine thinking NYC was safe in the ’90s but not today! Seriously, man.
Crime fell in New York City by 80% from 1990 to 2021. https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf
Those are the facts, not the skewed perceptions of a tourist.
Imagine thinking NYC was safe in the ’90s but not today! Seriously, man.
I first visited NYC in 1992 and last visited in 2018, with several visits in-between. In ’92 I found NY relatively safe. In 2018 the place was an overpriced, crime-ridden toilet. It really is true, left-wing mayors are poisonous for big cities. Living in London, we’re suffering much the same problem now. Khan, like De Blasio, really thinks he can create a green urban paradise from a city designed for horses and carts.
Racist Black supremacist political hustlers have dragged NYC to its knees
Yes, but stop capitalising “black”.
Yes, but stop capitalising “black”.
Racist Black supremacist political hustlers have dragged NYC to its knees
Until those who run the city admit and face that there is an elephant in the room; violent crime perpetrated almost entirely by blacks, the city will not recover.
Until those who run the city admit and face that there is an elephant in the room; violent crime perpetrated almost entirely by blacks, the city will not recover.
Houston is poised to overtake all of these. But how would you know.
Houston is poised to overtake all of these. But how would you know.
Very interesting article on an overlooked topic. Yes, we’ve seen a lot of cities withering through history (and new ones being built, sometimes mere kilometers away).
I think it is true that NY is “less bad” than Chicago or LA. But as a city can’t only live and renew itself with only immigrants (from the hinterland or from abroad) the core question a long-term plannign mayor should ask for his city is : “how can I make life affordable and enjoyable for a working family”. Housing, jobs, crime and school quality are the key parameters for that.
40-45% of NYC’s population are relatively new immigrants with needs that put a financial burden on the city. NY taxpayers finance 450,000 low-income housing units. Yes, the federal government in recent years, has forked over $4 billion for repairs & renovations of these units but the financial burden remains. The top 2% taxpayers pay an inordinate portion of this bill which is why taxes are the highest in the nation. Covid caused over 60k people to permanently leave taking an estimated $60 billion in taxes with them. Yet, the city remains a one party – progressive democrat- town that continually screams for more ‘tax’ blood from people who remain. I lived in the city for 35 years – in the early 80’s, areas of the upper west side Manhattan were still recovering from the destructive 70’s. When we moved in then drugs, drug apartment buildings, rehab houses still abounded. The city picked up dramatically in the 80’s and 90’s – days when there were still prominent Republicans about like the Buckleys. Then crazy and unproductive DeBlasio got elected and it’s been downhill ever since. As long as NYC remains a one-party town, there will be no pushback, no progress. Communism-lite just doesn’t work. There has to be political balance to see tension and progress.
IMHO low income housing is the most wastefull, toxic use of public money ever imagined. Subsidizing the talibans might actually be better. At best, LHI provides urbans from the laptop class with cheap nannies, which may not the be a cause worth subsidizing with public money
Those policies are extremely expensive, create insane political patronage (the welfare recipients vote for their welfare transferors), reduce job mobility (noone will move out of heavily subsidized house) and don’t add any singe available home : they just evict the working middle class (in Britain the word Middle class is misleading, hence I type working middle class as to represents normal working taxpayers with a decent job). And no, without a prosperous yeomen class you get at the very best a thirld world society.
As for democrat mono-party rule, the reality is that once the welfare class gets to dominate the vote you can’t have a republic anymore.
We lived in Gramercy Park and Murray Hill in the 80s. My husband worked in the city all through the 90s and 2Ks. Even when it was a garbage-strike and squeegee man mess, I still loved it. But, like all cities run into the ground by Democrats, it’s irredeemably lost. That the entire city is caged in scaffolding is clearly a visual metaphor illustrating its fallen state. Kotkin’s own fabulism – that the city can change with a “shift in urban consciousness” – is an example of not blaming the actual culprits of what is a gigantic, world-class crime scene: Democrat politicians and those who vote for them.
IMHO low income housing is the most wastefull, toxic use of public money ever imagined. Subsidizing the talibans might actually be better. At best, LHI provides urbans from the laptop class with cheap nannies, which may not the be a cause worth subsidizing with public money
Those policies are extremely expensive, create insane political patronage (the welfare recipients vote for their welfare transferors), reduce job mobility (noone will move out of heavily subsidized house) and don’t add any singe available home : they just evict the working middle class (in Britain the word Middle class is misleading, hence I type working middle class as to represents normal working taxpayers with a decent job). And no, without a prosperous yeomen class you get at the very best a thirld world society.
As for democrat mono-party rule, the reality is that once the welfare class gets to dominate the vote you can’t have a republic anymore.
We lived in Gramercy Park and Murray Hill in the 80s. My husband worked in the city all through the 90s and 2Ks. Even when it was a garbage-strike and squeegee man mess, I still loved it. But, like all cities run into the ground by Democrats, it’s irredeemably lost. That the entire city is caged in scaffolding is clearly a visual metaphor illustrating its fallen state. Kotkin’s own fabulism – that the city can change with a “shift in urban consciousness” – is an example of not blaming the actual culprits of what is a gigantic, world-class crime scene: Democrat politicians and those who vote for them.
40-45% of NYC’s population are relatively new immigrants with needs that put a financial burden on the city. NY taxpayers finance 450,000 low-income housing units. Yes, the federal government in recent years, has forked over $4 billion for repairs & renovations of these units but the financial burden remains. The top 2% taxpayers pay an inordinate portion of this bill which is why taxes are the highest in the nation. Covid caused over 60k people to permanently leave taking an estimated $60 billion in taxes with them. Yet, the city remains a one party – progressive democrat- town that continually screams for more ‘tax’ blood from people who remain. I lived in the city for 35 years – in the early 80’s, areas of the upper west side Manhattan were still recovering from the destructive 70’s. When we moved in then drugs, drug apartment buildings, rehab houses still abounded. The city picked up dramatically in the 80’s and 90’s – days when there were still prominent Republicans about like the Buckleys. Then crazy and unproductive DeBlasio got elected and it’s been downhill ever since. As long as NYC remains a one-party town, there will be no pushback, no progress. Communism-lite just doesn’t work. There has to be political balance to see tension and progress.
Very interesting article on an overlooked topic. Yes, we’ve seen a lot of cities withering through history (and new ones being built, sometimes mere kilometers away).
I think it is true that NY is “less bad” than Chicago or LA. But as a city can’t only live and renew itself with only immigrants (from the hinterland or from abroad) the core question a long-term plannign mayor should ask for his city is : “how can I make life affordable and enjoyable for a working family”. Housing, jobs, crime and school quality are the key parameters for that.
As crime rises and criminals aren’t punished, those who can will flee to safer, more congenial pastures.
As crime rises and criminals aren’t punished, those who can will flee to safer, more congenial pastures.
I’m retired from the NYCTA after 24 1/2 yrs of service since 2014. One of the perks is a pass to ride the subway/bus system free. I haven’t bothered to renew mine since 2016. I wouldn’t go to NYC if they paid me. It has become a complete craphole after politicians passed the Criminal Reform bill. ALL administrations since DeBlasio have done a fine job of making it that way. Each and everyone of the people who elected them are FULLY responsible for it.
When men are insulated from the consequences of their decisions, they will walk into fire and call it cool. People who vote Democrat do so more to promote their bona fides of a social group then to enact specific policy. The policy that results then surprises them, but they do not connect it to the people they selected. They think of the results like the weather: no one is responsible for it.
When men are insulated from the consequences of their decisions, they will walk into fire and call it cool. People who vote Democrat do so more to promote their bona fides of a social group then to enact specific policy. The policy that results then surprises them, but they do not connect it to the people they selected. They think of the results like the weather: no one is responsible for it.
I’m retired from the NYCTA after 24 1/2 yrs of service since 2014. One of the perks is a pass to ride the subway/bus system free. I haven’t bothered to renew mine since 2016. I wouldn’t go to NYC if they paid me. It has become a complete craphole after politicians passed the Criminal Reform bill. ALL administrations since DeBlasio have done a fine job of making it that way. Each and everyone of the people who elected them are FULLY responsible for it.
If you’re counting on the barely verbal Eric Adams to save New York City, you might as well book your farewell visit now, mate.
If you’re counting on the barely verbal Eric Adams to save New York City, you might as well book your farewell visit now, mate.
His comment on Manchester was not correct, it’s thriving and has a bigger central population than ever.
Correct. I visit Manchester frequently, and it’s absolutely thriving, new bars/restaurants/clubs opening every week and the skyline littered with cranes. Liverpool (where my daughter lives) isn’t far behind.
The business side may be different, i.e. post-industrial, but the author needs to do more than take lazy aim at cities well-placed to lead as regional hubs for future prosperity.
Yes, I visited Liverpool a couple of years ago and was really pleased to see how well the regeneration is going. Ditto Manchester. Andy Burnham is the ‘right sort’ of Left Wing in my opinion, he certainly chose the right Chief Constable.
Yes, I visited Liverpool a couple of years ago and was really pleased to see how well the regeneration is going. Ditto Manchester. Andy Burnham is the ‘right sort’ of Left Wing in my opinion, he certainly chose the right Chief Constable.
Correct. I visit Manchester frequently, and it’s absolutely thriving, new bars/restaurants/clubs opening every week and the skyline littered with cranes. Liverpool (where my daughter lives) isn’t far behind.
The business side may be different, i.e. post-industrial, but the author needs to do more than take lazy aim at cities well-placed to lead as regional hubs for future prosperity.
His comment on Manchester was not correct, it’s thriving and has a bigger central population than ever.
Very important and excellent book by Michael Shellenberger – a must read on this topic:
https://www.whsmith.co.uk/products/san-fransicko-why-progressives-ruin-cities/michael-shellenberger/hardback/9780063093621.html?utm_campaign=eq_whs_259955&utm_medium=affiliates&utm_source=awin&awc=3017_1671052917_a09deb1eb814876d792b444fd6a1a7d7
Very important and excellent book by Michael Shellenberger – a must read on this topic:
https://www.whsmith.co.uk/products/san-fransicko-why-progressives-ruin-cities/michael-shellenberger/hardback/9780063093621.html?utm_campaign=eq_whs_259955&utm_medium=affiliates&utm_source=awin&awc=3017_1671052917_a09deb1eb814876d792b444fd6a1a7d7
When men are insulated from the consequences of their decisions, they will walk into fire and call it cool. People who vote Democrat do so more to promote their bona fides of a social group then to enact specific policy. The policy that results then surprises them, but they do not connect it to the people they selected. They think of the results like the weather: no one is responsible for it.
When men are insulated from the consequences of their decisions, they will walk into fire and call it cool. People who vote Democrat do so more to promote their bona fides of a social group then to enact specific policy. The policy that results then surprises them, but they do not connect it to the people they selected. They think of the results like the weather: no one is responsible for it.
So the hicks won’t go to Planet Hollywood at Times Square?
I think New York will do just fine without you…
So the hicks won’t go to Planet Hollywood at Times Square?
I think New York will do just fine without you…