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Liz Truss can still survive The Prime Minister needs to own her failures

Time to lean in. (Stefan Rousseau - WPA Pool/Getty Images)

Time to lean in. (Stefan Rousseau - WPA Pool/Getty Images)


October 17, 2022   5 mins

There’s a moment in politics when you have no moves left. No matter how clever you are, or how right your case is, the walls are closing in and they won’t stop until you are crushed. There is no experience like being in a Prime Minister’s office when that moment comes. It is crushing precisely because it feels as unfair as it is inevitable.

That moment is upon No 10 now — with a brutal twist. Normally it is possible to blame external circumstances, often a political rival ruthlessly splitting the party to seize the crown, reckless of the damage caused.

This time it is entirely a situation of the Prime Minister’s making. It is her policies, the ones she set out in her leadership campaign, which have been fully implemented and more. It is her Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, who spooked the markets by sacking his Permanent Secretary, the most senior civil servant in the Treasury; preventing the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, a Tory creation, from publishing forecasts of the Government’s “mini-budget”; and wanting to abolish the top rate of income tax, on top of ending the cap on bankers’ bonuses. Three strikes and Kwarteng was out.

Is there a way through? Very possibly. Truss is facing the ultimate gang who couldn’t shoot straight. The parliamentary Conservative party is often called the most sophisticated electorate in the world — a phrase which is only true if you construe “sophisticated” according to the Elizabethan meaning of the word. These are the MPs who chose Theresa May, who lost a 20-point lead and a majority in an election against Jeremy Corbyn. They then plumped for Boris Johnson who governed as he has lived — as a Lord of Misrule. He became the only prime minister to have been found guilty of breaking the law — rules for which he had legislated, but in character had clearly failed to read.

This most “sophisticated” electorate has surpassed itself with a free market leader who has now been judged freely by those very markets. As a great Strathclyde Regional Council leader once said to me, speaking of his hundred strong Labour group of councillors: “Ah wouldnae let them walk my dog round the block. And I don’t have a dog.”

If, now, the appointment of Jeremy Hunt, a former Cabinet minister with no Treasury experience who fell out of the Tory leadership in the first round, is being hailed as a stroke of Machiavellian genius, perhaps it is possible to discern a faint and very narrow path to victory for the Prime Minister — or at least to survival, which feels like the same thing.

Time, as Sheryl Sandberg says, to lean in. Own the pivot; it is not, emphatically, a U-turn. Double down. Declare that you are governing in the national interest. Show it. Raise VAT at the same time as raising benefits in line with inflation. Throw in a new Deficit Repayment levy of 5% for earners over £100,000. Dare Labour to oppose such compassionate conservatism. Tighten belts by moving capital spending to the Right rather than cancelling any projects. Day by day, get to the end of the week, the end of the month, then Christmas. Then the energy package starts to kick in and reduce the rate of inflation.

Of course, politics doesn’t take place only in a government. Already, like “Snakes on a Plane”, letter writers are coiling into view. And plotters are briefing the lobby. There are so many schemes swirling around but they all amount to one proposition: replacing the Prime Minister without an election. The number of names being floated suggests one single problem — when you are looking for a unity candidate it is the unity which is necessary not the candidate. And Tory plotters face not only an immovable object — Prime Minister Truss — but also an irresistible force — the ambition of Suella Braverman. Such ideologically divided parties heal only slowly, and over a long period in opposition.

But what about the Opposition? Says no one. Ever. The bitter truth of the UK’s first-past-the-post system is that while the Government looks rudderless, the Tory party has a working majority of 69 and can do what it likes until it no longer has that majority. Which could be as far off as 2025, given the maximum permissible time this parliament could run. And everyone, including the Opposition, knows this. The action is with the Government and even if it is a car crash everyone driving past is slowing down and gazing in a mixture of awe and horror.

To get any cut through, Labour needs to change gear and get edgier. This is a tough ask. Not just because being showy is something that neither Keir Starmer nor Rachel Reeves, his Shadow Chancellor, are comfortable with. But also because as the alternative government, they too have to be careful not to spook the markets or the voters. Because while more than 50% in a dozen polls does suggest a settled will, it also means that Labour’s support is so broad it goes deeply into voters who are far from the unionised, statist, tax and spend heart of the party. This is a fragile coalition that should be nurtured — not confronted.

Time, then, for some creative campaigning. Labour needs to show, not tell; it must demonstrate it is a new broad coalition by co-opting public figures like Jamie Oliver. His passionate campaign for extending free school meals is making waves — appoint him to head a Food and Healthy Eating Commission. Oppositions can be fleet-footed, after all, they aren’t running anything. Starmer should capitalise on that to exploit slips by the Government where they can become symbols of how Labour occupies the middle ground.

If the Government spurns plans for an information campaign, the Labour should bring the TUC and Age UK together to run one. When the Government abandons smoking cessation programmes, Labour should bring its digital campaigners together with all the medical unions and volunteers from the creative industries to generate an innovative campaign. Don’t just look like the alternative government, act like it too.

High-minded campaigns should be matched by low politics too. Find every opportunity to use parliamentary votes to defeat the government — or use the threat of defeat to paralyse them. Too scared to lose votes, the Government will try not to legislate and create a Zombie parliament. But Labour should be chipping away at the Tory majority, looking for people to cross the floor. All its MPs should be on Defection Watch — and any Tory MPs who switch sides should be promised and given a safe seat. (Though with Labour on current polling, just being allowed to be the Labour candidate in your own seat would probably work for many.)

Everything has to be about image, change and momentum. Most of all for Keir Starmer, who must spend almost all of his time on the road — selling his policies and himself. It’s important that the whole country understands “green growth” means reindustrialisation and jobs, jobs, jobs. And they also need to see that Keir likes a beer, loves football and will actually listen to them.

Time is always the most precious commodity in politics — you need it to change perceptions, or to heal wounds. And time is moving very differently for Starmer and Truss right now. The Opposition leader needs events to speed up, the Prime Minister needs them to slow down.

The news is mixed for Liz Truss this morning. The actions of the Government are decisive and calming: more tax cuts from the mini-budget reversed and a statement from the new Chancellor in the House. This will calm the markets, but not the parliamentary Conservative Party. The backbenches are restless and getting more febrile, and WhatsApp makes spreading rumours to each other and to journalists so much easier and faster. This is why it is reported that Tory MPs believe the Prime Minister has to go — “it’s when not if” — but remain unclear what mechanism can be used.

Government is often described as a marathon not a sprint; for Liz Truss this week is a marathon of sprints to stay ahead of the mob.


John McTernan is a British political strategist and former advisor to Tony Blair.

johnmcternan

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polidori redux
polidori redux
1 year ago

Labour or Tory – My choice.
“The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which”
I have decided to resign from my post as voter, as I have no moves left.

Last edited 1 year ago by polidori redux
Prashant Kotak
Prashant Kotak
1 year ago
Reply to  polidori redux

How about moves right?

polidori redux
polidori redux
1 year ago
Reply to  Prashant Kotak

Cute, but no cigar!

Albireo Double
Albireo Double
1 year ago
Reply to  polidori redux

Yup. Me too. Resigned / retired as a member of the voting classes.

David Owsley
David Owsley
1 year ago
Reply to  polidori redux

by not voting you merely allow the pigs in with fewer votes!

Albireo Double
Albireo Double
1 year ago
Reply to  David Owsley

I’ll vote again when there is a box on the ballot paper for “None of these “and those votes are counted and declared along with all the others.

Bill Tomlinson
Bill Tomlinson
1 year ago
Reply to  Albireo Double

Good idea, but politics is “the art of the possible” and the only people who can make it happen are the MPs in the Commons at the relevant moment.

That would be asking turkeys to vote for Xmas.

Another idea would run like this:
MP’s terms are (5 years x 12 months =) 60 months.
There are roughly 600 MPs.
So we could elect 10 every month. In other words, a sort of rolling by-election system, so the complexion of parliament would change gradually.

Perhaps the turkeys would vote for that?

Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  Bill Tomlinson

It depends on who is choosing the candidates. We don’t get that choice. We just get the choice to vote for a political party and they stick in a candidate of their own choosing. If we had a bit more choice of the candidate it would be a bit fairer I think.

Jeff Cunningham
Jeff Cunningham
1 year ago
Reply to  Tony Conrad

I remember reading a sci-fi book a long time ago wherein the leaders were chosen by some random computer lottery system, kind of like juries. It featured one guy and his experience as Prime Minister then returning to normal life. Sometimes I wonder if that wouldn’t work better than this system. A distribution of qualities has to sometimes beat uniformly awful, doesn’t it?

Kate Heusser
Kate Heusser
1 year ago

I wrote my comment before reading yours. It seems we have the same basic idea.

Kate Heusser
Kate Heusser
1 year ago
Reply to  Tony Conrad

Ancient Greece had it about right, I reckon. Anyone who expressed an ambition – even a willingness – to take power should be banned for life from holding it!
Perhaps 650 people should be conscripted at random and forced to sit on the reen benches for a few years, in a magnified version of jury service? After all, the only required qualifications for being an MP are to be entitled to vote, and to be over 21!

Eileen Conn
Eileen Conn
1 year ago
Reply to  Albireo Double

yes definitely. That is what we need as much as PR – a box to tick ‘none of these’ plus a duty to vote. We need people elected but if the votes against+ ‘none of these’ are more than 50% it would be a significant democratic influence in how they govern. We can try it easily at local government level.

Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  David Owsley

Very true, but we could do with some better candidates for the tory party especially in my borough. They keep putting up the same woke cadidate who is completely the opposite of what I believe. Whose job is it to choose the cadidate? I am basically tory but do not vote for her.

Last edited 1 year ago by Tony Conrad
David Owsley
David Owsley
1 year ago
Reply to  Tony Conrad

I am lucky that where I live the guy is a real Conservative and continues to prove it…that said the current poor party in general will let the Lib Dems in here (SW)

Jeremy Bray
Jeremy Bray
1 year ago
Reply to  polidori redux

While I have great sympathy for your plight which I rather share, would it not be better to support a party that reflected what you wanted even if it it appeared to have little chance of actually electing any MPs? UKIP and the Brexit party had great influence on policy while scarcely voting in any MPs under the existing system. At least by voting for someone other than the main parties you register some dissent rather than leave the impression that you are indifferent rather than disgusted with both the main contenders.
To resign as a voter is to leave the field to the pigs, whether human or porcine.

polidori redux
polidori redux
1 year ago
Reply to  Jeremy Bray

Oh, if another party other than the big three stood in South Cambs, then I would vote for it. But it doesn’t happen.

Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  polidori redux

It could if they make an alliance with each other. It would be worth a try.

Billy Bob
Billy Bob
1 year ago
Reply to  polidori redux

Where in South Cambs?

polidori redux
polidori redux
1 year ago
Reply to  Billy Bob

Between Cambourne and St Neots

Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  Jeremy Bray

I agree with what you are saying. That would take it back to where it started before it became party politics. Just voting for the right candidate would be much more democratic. I am shocked at who we have been given if you want to vote tory. My heart says UKIP or Reform Party with Richard Tice and Nigel Farage. Pity these kind of parties cannot join together and make an indent in the chaos going on just now. I can’t see any real basic difference between them. They are just watering down the power they could have by being king of their little bit. The serving spirit is disappearing it would appear. It would appear people are hungry for power.

Sam Hill
Sam Hill
1 year ago
Reply to  Jeremy Bray

This seems to me to be a very important point that is much-understated. The conditions for a new party in England are now absolutely ripe. UKIP/Brexit were perhaps a glimpse of it – and indeed where elections were under PR they made a serious break through.
There’s no one obvious to do it, and I’ve no idea what form it would take, but the conditions for it are there, no question. Indeed they use FPTP in France and their party moulds were broken so the electoral system is no inherent barrier.
It is, of course, easy to just throw things out on the internet and it may well be that outside of the borderline hysterical media the public at large aren’t that interested in politics. And of course any new party would have to face the same divides. But I don’t think a new breakthrough party is totally theoretical right now.

Andrew Boughton
Andrew Boughton
1 year ago
Reply to  polidori redux

I see you in The Spectator on Sam Leith’s piece on Liz, which I liked very much.

Andrew Boughton
Andrew Boughton
1 year ago
Reply to  polidori redux

One seems to have appreciated Sam Leith’s excellent piece on Liz in The Spectator more than most, and I saw your post there. Refreshing to see a literary editor weigh in on politics with an angle markedly different than political journalists. His was an assessment of character and ideology, to which my response is that Liz’s generalisations are similar, a few minor ideological differences aside, to the Keynesian theory of abundance, best known in its sublimated form as ‘The General Theory of Employment, Interest & Money’.

Marcus Leach
Marcus Leach
1 year ago

I think is entirely possible for the Tories and Truss save themselves with an accute policy shif. But this Tory Party is so riddled with faint hearted social democrats, that even if the leadership settled on it, the craven MPs wouldn’t back it.
On the economy, there is nothing much the Tories can do but batten down the hatches to prepare for the coming global crash and recession. Government spending and debt needs to be cut or else risk government debt spiralinig out of control when the recession brings large reductions in tax revenues and large increaes in benefit payments. The rise in Corporation tax to 25%, however, is an act of supreme self-defeating foolishness.
I find it entirely bewidering that the Tories don’t make the simple point that the debt, inflation and consequent rises in interest rate, are a direct consequence of the lockdowns and handouts that the public, MSM and Labour demanded. Why not remind the fickle electorate that protecting them and subsidising them has to be paid for, and that if the government had listened to Labour and lockdowned longer and splurged more, we would be in an infinitely worse situation?
Where the Tories can win is by going for the red meat.
Pull out of the ECHR and repeal the legislation that has created a human rights and asylum system that is monsterously abused. Are the Tories really going to sit back for the next two years and allow the dinghy invasion to continue and billions spent on hotels and pizza?
Cap immigration at net zero for 10 years. And, as a quid pro quo, get house building on a grand scale to actually solve the housing crisis and get young people in to homes. They might actually think about voting Tory.
Fight the infestation of woke in our institutions. Get the police back to fighting crime instead of dancing in pride parades. Define a woman as an: “adult human female” and kick out the trans nonsense. Be unashamedly pro-Britain, or history and culture. In short, be conservatives.

Last edited 1 year ago by Marcus Leach
Frank McCusker
Frank McCusker
1 year ago
Reply to  Marcus Leach

Fair enough, but Brexiters are radicals – the very opposite of conservatives – so long as Brexit is the dominant ideology, conservatism is finished

Christopher Peter
Christopher Peter
1 year ago
Reply to  Frank McCusker

An interesting response to a long and detailed comment that didn’t mention Brexit once. Who are “Brexiters”? We’ve left the EU. That ship has sailed. It seems to be mainly “Remainers” (who should of course now be called “Rejoiners”) who can’t stop banging on about it.

Last edited 1 year ago by Christopher Peter
Alphonse Pfarti
Alphonse Pfarti
1 year ago
Reply to  Frank McCusker

Define a conservative. Do you mean one who defends the status quo, regardless of what it may be?

Another view of conservatism is the primacy of the nation state and its relationship to its citizens. The state may adapt to changing circumstances while conserving what makes the society function and is best for its citizens.

Which are you proposing?

Last edited 1 year ago by Alphonse Pfarti
Billy Bob
Billy Bob
1 year ago
Reply to  Frank McCusker

You could argue that the vast majority who voted to leave did so in order to conserve their way of life. They’d seen the free movement laws abused and the competition for jobs and housing had had a detrimental effect on their prosperity, so they voted to prevent it from getting worse

CHARLES STANHOPE
CHARLES STANHOPE
1 year ago
Reply to  Marcus Leach

Well said, although it is far too late save Truss, and the so called Tories.
Incidentally to refer to Tory
MP’s as “social democrats” is surely a misnomer?

As far as ‘vox populi’ and the Red Wall are concerned, they are a bunch of bed-wetting spastics of the first order.

Last edited 1 year ago by CHARLES STANHOPE
Ron Wigley
Ron Wigley
1 year ago
Reply to  Marcus Leach

Good post Marcus but fat chance with this lot!

Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  Ron Wigley

25 upvotes not bad.

Angus Melrose-Soutar
Angus Melrose-Soutar
1 year ago
Reply to  Marcus Leach

“…the lockdowns … that the public…demanded.” ?
I know of nobody, not one person, that thought that the lockdown was a good idea.
“…get house building on a grand scale to actually solve the housing crisis…”?
There are new housing estates being built in every town in the UK.

Kevin Godwin
Kevin Godwin
1 year ago

Maybe, but are these new homes affordable to the vast majority of first-time buyers?

Last edited 1 year ago by Kevin Godwin
Jeff Cunningham
Jeff Cunningham
1 year ago
Reply to  Marcus Leach

Aye, the red meat! Sadly, only gaseous vegans get elected these days.

Walter Marvell
Walter Marvell
1 year ago
Reply to  Marcus Leach

Plenty of ideas – for true Tories to grasp. But do true conservatives as opposed to regicidal mad dog Blairites actually exist in Westminster PLP? They cannot point to the lockdown insanity as the chief cause of inflation as they as govt were responsible for it. Ditto pointing the finger at the Net Zero insanity. Maybot doubled down on what is a hardcore neo Pol Pot Degrowth strategy. So neither Tories nor the warped BBC can ever give a true account of events and their responsibility/culpability for this suffering. Hence it is ALL Putins fault instead. Yeh right..

Al N
Al N
1 year ago

Labour, the party of Corbyn supporting Starmer.
Brexit reversal Starmer.
Kneeler to Marxist ideology Starmer.
These are the facts amongst others that Labour has to address, not the fluff brought up in this article.

Robert Kaye
Robert Kaye
1 year ago
Reply to  Al N

As McTernan explains above, they don’t have to address them. Because outside a few obsessives (like people who read political blogs) most voters don’t care about the opposition.

Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  Robert Kaye

Ignorance is bliss therefore.

Ian Stewart
Ian Stewart
1 year ago
Reply to  Al N

And grooming gang non-prosecution Starmer, don’t forget, like the tens of thousands of abused young women who can’t forget it.

Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  Ian Stewart

It does lie at the feet of the Labour party doesn’t it?

Frank McCusker
Frank McCusker
1 year ago
Reply to  Al N

Holier-than-thou group-think sloganeering that nobody in the real world (outside your particular indignation bubble) gives a fig about

polidori redux
polidori redux
1 year ago
Reply to  Frank McCusker

Really? A lot of people seem to have noticed the abuse of under-age girls. These girls may be low class to you and therefore unworthy of consideration, but they are real people to some of us.

Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  polidori redux

That’s what he means by outside you indignation bubble. It was a terrible thing for it to be allowed to happen. Were they cowards because it involved Muslims? It should be one rule for all if people want to come here.

Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  Al N

You mean the one who doesn’t know what a woman is?

Kate Heusser
Kate Heusser
1 year ago
Reply to  Tony Conrad

I must admit that I’m very puzzled (as a woman) as to why it is that men seem to be the half of the population who get to define what a woman ‘is’, and whether women are allowed any say in the matter.

Paul Hendricks
Paul Hendricks
1 year ago
Reply to  Kate Heusser

Haven’t certain women have “allowed” themselves, whether from self-interest or naivete, to entertain every absurd novel idea of what a woman is?

In such cases it is up to the men to insist upon objective reality.

Walter Marvell
Walter Marvell
1 year ago
Reply to  Al N

Every time a Labour ‘thinker’ arrives on Unherd I think – yipee! great! – we may pierce Starmer’s black hole on economic policy. Especially when the UK has finally – and rudely – awoken to the reality of the post 2008 horror story thanks to the Truss debacle. And what do we get?? Jamie Oliver as Food Czar. You really are a bad joke. There is NOTHING there – admit it!! A bluery wurry hole in head. Islington Labour is still even more trapped in a policy void than the hapless Tories at the very nadir of their fortunes. You hate the gammon white working class, northeners, industry, roads and reservoirs, the idea of enterprise, wealth and .ugh…growth. So you are the nasty party of destructive greta green bullshit, the vast useless Blob, mad hyenas in the uni sector and the broken by lockdown NHS. You will bow the knee to them and the unions just as you did the BLM and trans thugs. The magic money tree is ALL you have – hence a Labour Government will be taken to the cleaners by its new bezzies the Bond Vigilantes if it took power. But articles like this will give Hunt and Rishi hope. You are like Sleepy Mr Inflator Biden.. total empty vessels…and in time you will be smoked out in the same way he has. Two years to go..

Alphonse Pfarti
Alphonse Pfarti
1 year ago

Among the first to declare against Truss were Crispin Blunt and Jamie Wallis. One openly uses poppers and the other ran away from a car crash then played the trans card (still seems to wear a suit to work, so he’ll probably be out-transed by Eddie Izzard soon enough). Whatever rights people have to live out their lives, I must admit to grave concerns that this pair are among the country’s decision makers.

Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago

If they are it is a big blot on the tory party. No getting away from it.

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago

Everything has to be about image, change and momentum.
I always said that New Labour was at heart a PR campaign.

Prashant Kotak
Prashant Kotak
1 year ago

“…it is a new broad coalition by co-opting public figures like Jamie Oliver…”

May I also suggest, Russell Brand? Perhaps also a Keirstone, with pledges?
Things, um, you know, can only get better!

Ian Stewart
Ian Stewart
1 year ago
Reply to  Prashant Kotak

And publish the Labour definition of a woman too! That’ll win votes round, I’m sure.

Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  Ian Stewart

If they could but they can’t. They have to please the transgender vote.

Andrew Horsman
Andrew Horsman
1 year ago
Reply to  Prashant Kotak

If one of your party’s leading strategists thinks that Jamie Oliver is a key part of the solution, the problem is probably worse than you think.

Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  Andrew Horsman

Learning to cook is a big solution to the country’s ills.

David Simpson
David Simpson
1 year ago
Reply to  Tony Conrad

well yes it would be actually, if you can afford the gas bill

Perry de Havilland
Perry de Havilland
1 year ago

I am uncertain why she should even want to “survive” given that in spite of being chosen by the party membership to lead the party, she is clearly in office but not in power.
She wanted to cancel a bonkers corporation tax increase during a recession & put top tax rate back where it was for 12 years under last Labour government. And this provoked the Tory WANCs (Tories Who Are Not Conservative) like the odious Cripin Blunt et al into strong-arming her chancellor of choice out of the job & replacing him with a Remainer, Sinophile member of the Blob orthodoxy.
Hunt is really de facto PM now & Truss serves no purpose. Indeed the absurdly named Conservative Party serves no purpose & what the party rank & file want matters less than nothing.
Plan for a well deserved Tory wipe-out at the next GE. The aftermath will be grim but it is going to happen & probably needs to happen.

CHARLES STANHOPE
CHARLES STANHOPE
1 year ago

Is not truly astonishing that the first “snake in the grass” to appear is one Crispin Blunt MP?

Is this not the same Blunt who was outraged that the Government was proposing to ban the use of ‘Poppers’?

( Poppers incidentally, for the ill informed such as myself, are some form of inhaled narcotic that relaxes the sphincter muscles in the a**s, thus facilitating ease of access whilst indulging in sodomy/b*ggery and the like.)

Nicky Samengo-Turner
Nicky Samengo-Turner
1 year ago

ahhh… former ” People’s cavalryman”.. 13/18 Hussars… known as The Milkmen…

CHARLES STANHOPE
CHARLES STANHOPE
1 year ago

I’m rather surprised that CB hasn’t gone “the whole hog” like the late Jan Morris, formerly of the 9th Lancers.

Last edited 1 year ago by CHARLES STANHOPE
Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago

That is disgusting if true.

CHARLES STANHOPE
CHARLES STANHOPE
1 year ago
Reply to  Tony Conrad
Last edited 1 year ago by CHARLES STANHOPE
Peter Dawson
Peter Dawson
1 year ago

Very interesting.

Billy Bob
Billy Bob
1 year ago

Poppers are also quite popular at the music festivals, I used to have a go on them myself. It’s not just the gays that use them, although I’d wager that’s probably why Blunt wanted them legalised

Kate Heusser
Kate Heusser
1 year ago

No matter how worthy and sensible Ms. Truss’s policies – and I make no judgment – the idea that she could get her party to re-election in two years’ time by unleashing tax cuts for the ‘few, not the many’ and threatening below-inflation pay/benefit rises for the lowest earners, was for the bird-brained. There aren’t enough votes in those policies to secure a majority at the next election, so which companies and high-wealth, high-income individuals are going to be lured to relocate to the UK for measures that would, in all probability, be reversed before they unpacked?
It would have made far more sense to announce, as part of a run-up to 2024, that this was the intended direction of travel, and to admit that the measures couldn’t be brought in straight away – because, you know, possible WWIII, oil crisis, cost-of-living crisis, health crisis etc., etc.

But – we are where we are – and Hunt (our previously so-beloved (?) Health Secretary – now has the keys to No. 11. Actually, of course, the Chancellor now usually resides above No. 10 – the better to pull the strings of the PM.

Spencer Dugdale
Spencer Dugdale
1 year ago

Starmer needs to learn what a woman is if he wants them to vote for him.

Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago

He might be trying to learn but probably believes it will cost him votes among the woke.

Christopher Peter
Christopher Peter
1 year ago

Some interesting thoughts, and a refreshing change of perspective from the relentless “Truss is doomed” articles – which, though they may turn out to be correct in the end, tend to be light on the detail of how exactly she would be overthrown, who would replace her and what further damage it will inflict on the government’s reputation. Because the answers to those questions are very far from clear.
The article is however less convincing about Labour tactics. Appointing Jamie Oliver as head of a new “Food and Healthy Eating Commission” sounds like a plotline from The Thick of It, the kind of lightweight policy-on-the-fly tinkering that does little more than waste more money and create yet another quango, like we need another one.
The markets are spooked right now not so much because the government wanted to cut taxes per se – and much of that supposedly radical and “ideological” agenda involved little more than cancelling planned increases – but because they were unconvinced about how it would all be paid for when combined with the (much larger) bill for the energy bail-out.
Labour needs to do more than just come up with yet more ways to spend money – we know they can do that, it’s easy to make promises but much harder to pay for them. They need a message that is coherent, pragmatic and inspiring. They need to prove they can manage the economy and bring the UK’s massive debt under control without causing major hardship. Which won’t be easy for anyone.
And it may be true they that few will pay much attention to the Opposition right now – I certainly don’t – but people will take much more notice as the next GE draws close and if Labour still look the likely next government. The scrutiny will become intense.

Jeff Cunningham
Jeff Cunningham
1 year ago

I’ve been reading Unherd a while now, through several changes of government, and been struck by how quickly after a change there appear volumes of articles with titles announcing the newly formed one is dead or dying. How can any government accomplish anything without the breathing space to act – especially when temporarily unpleasant things are required to fix progressively worsening situations?

Billy Bob
Billy Bob
1 year ago

Why should they have breathing space? Nobody made Truss rush out an uncosted budget, she could have held tight and announced it down the line when the global financial system has settled down slightly. Instead she dived straight in, therefore any criticism of the outcome of her policies is fair game in my opinion

John Riordan
John Riordan
1 year ago

Having read this morning’s announcement from Jeremy *unt, I am finally past the point where I have anything invested in the continued success of the Conservative Party.

It no longer has anything in common with my interests, beliefs, or political principles. I therefore could not care less if Liz Truss survives or is replaced. They could replace Liz Truss with the Downing Street cat quite frankly, and it would mean nothing to me.

JJ Barnett
JJ Barnett
1 year ago
Reply to  John Riordan

Larry the cat would be a great choice, I think we should try it.

The Belgians had a period (about 2 years if I remember rightly; someone can correct me if needed) where they had no acting government at all due to coalition-building squabbles. The country carried on running.

I think we should try it. Let’s have one full 5 year Parliamentary cycle with no government. Give us a little bit of a breather — some time to clean up some of their messes before we let any more of them back into the creche to wreck everything again. I’d vote for it.

Last edited 1 year ago by JJ Barnett
Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  John Riordan

I think she is alright personally but the party appears to want to injure itself.

JJ Barnett
JJ Barnett
1 year ago
Reply to  Tony Conrad

The Tories’ ability to self harm is something to behold.

odd taff
odd taff
1 year ago

Theres a big element of luck involved in life. The last three Prime Ministers have drawn very short straws. Mrs May had the obstinate Parliament of Remainers. Boris had Covid and Lynne Truss the dreadfully weak economy caused by lockdowns. None of these PMs appear impressive in office but in different circumstances might have made a better fist of the job. There’s a temptation to believe that a new jockey will get this old nag home but I doubt it. Honestly the world is in terrible shape and this country can’t avoid hard times.

René Descartes
René Descartes
1 year ago
Reply to  odd taff

Truss’s short straw is more than just a weak economy: it is the lack of any discernable intelligence.

Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  odd taff

She only needs the courage of her convictions. I think she will develop into a reasonable leader.

Billy Bob
Billy Bob
1 year ago
Reply to  Tony Conrad

What convictions? She changes directions more often than a wind sock!

David Owsley
David Owsley
1 year ago

She should call a General Election, thereby cooking the goose and making frit all these wimpish Lib Dem-esque Remainiac CINOs (of which she WAS one)

JJ Barnett
JJ Barnett
1 year ago
Reply to  David Owsley

I agree, she should, for a number of reasons, chief among which is that she is currently a hostage in her own government, which is untenable.

Hunt and his Davos chums are clearly circling like sharks and will do all they can to publicly humiliate and undermine her, which means reversing the entire platform she stood on. That is also untenable as it removes the mandate on which her authority rests; if she cannot deliver what she promised and her government will in fact deliver the opposite of what she promised… she must step down.
Fundamentally, what’s happening is grossly at odds with any conception of ‘democracy’. After Boris was removed, whoever replaced him mid term was already resting their leadership on the limited mandate of an election by circa 80,000 party members. If even that mandate stands in tatters then she cannot govern. But she also should not be removed in a coup and replaced by people with absolutely no mandate at all.

Rishi was rejected by the members. Mordaunt was rejected by the MPs and didn’t even make it to the membership vote. Hunt didn’t even make it past the first round. None of these WEF puppets have any mandate to be running this country, so the only solution to this wretched mess is to go to the country and seek a fresh mandate.

Last edited 1 year ago by JJ Barnett
Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  JJ Barnett

You only have to smile and you get away with murder. I am surprised that Hunt is one of those WEF globlists following Schwab. These are people who want to rule over all governments and bring us into armageddon. They trangress borders and are not subject to national laws.

Kate Heusser
Kate Heusser
1 year ago
Reply to  JJ Barnett

Yes. What you said. However, I don’t think it’s the change of PM tha, or Chancellor, that means this should be referred to the country, but the high-handed assumption that the party in government can ditch the manifesto on which it was elected and substitute something it fancies better. If Boris was ‘a liar’, what does that make the MPs who went to the country on one set of policies and then ditched them?

Michael Davis
Michael Davis
1 year ago

Made the mistake of thinking that what obsesses Westminster also carries to the voter
Easy to say you’ll vote Labour, far harder to actually do it

Rob Britton
Rob Britton
1 year ago

Crickey! Labour’s attempt to pose as a government in waiting involves appointing Jamie Oliver!!

Angus Melrose-Soutar
Angus Melrose-Soutar
1 year ago

Ms Truss has made mistakes. She should have sacked each and every Cabinet member who disagreed in public. Even if that meant replacing the entire Cabinet. She should have warned all Tory MPs that if they voted against her, the whip would be withdrawn and they would not be reselected at the next General Election. If you have power you need to use it. If you do not, you will seen to be soft and pliable. No leader can afford to be pushed around by those who should be supportive. Those who plot against you or fail to support you as a leader must be removed and silenced, immediately and without hesitation.
“It’s very unpleasant, especially as it has to be done in this abrupt way. Otherwise there is no authority at the top of government,” said Macmillan speaking of the 1962 “Night of the Long Knives” when he sacked seven Cabinet Ministers.

Billy Bob
Billy Bob
1 year ago

She hasn’t got enough allies in Parliament to sack her entire cabinet. If she did that any authority would be gone and she’d be out on her ear

James Kirk
James Kirk
1 year ago

Like many articles lately the news will have changed by the time you reach the last paragraph.

JJ Barnett
JJ Barnett
1 year ago
Reply to  James Kirk

Sometimes it feels as though the world is speeding up. It’s like trying to drink from a firehose just keeping up with the sheer volume of insanity and chaos!

Last edited 1 year ago by JJ Barnett
Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago

Liz is basically a good person and the finacial plans had some logic to them. Of course it was a risk but nothing ventured nothing gained. We live in tough times not of her making. She inherited an awful lot of problems worse than any prime minister for a long time. It would appear that the trouble is within the Tory party, not everyone, but those who refuse to be led for one reason and another. Personally I am very pleased with her so far but unfortunately there are enemies within.

Rupert Steel
Rupert Steel
1 year ago

Interesting. But the recommendation to raise VAT shows the writer hasn’t got a clue. VAT is a working capital imposition on business, and that’s fine when interest rates are near zero or negative in real terms. But when interest rates rise, there’s real pain and consequently squeezed margins. So, add to unemployment by sacking workers of marginal utility who don’t add value during a recession.

René Descartes
René Descartes
1 year ago

Truss can survive? Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. Very good. What are you on?

Andrew Boughton
Andrew Boughton
1 year ago

Sam Leith in The Spectator wrote such a good piece on Liz. Of such a different nature to most political journalism, it cut straight to character, personality, and the nature of her ambition-fed delusions. Liz’s love affair with lifeless economic theory, unrequited by the markets which, to her great surprise arose very much alive with real feeling, was particularly apt, with her wooden ideas and love of generalisation. Hers is a general theory of abundance, a sort of counterpoint to Keynes, and as such of equal value. I can only imagine you wish her well for the benefit of the Opposition.

j watson
j watson
1 year ago

One thing seems clear – Starmer’s Labour could hardly do worse than the shambles in power now.

Was interesting listening to how moderate and sensible even John McDonald was on Radio yesterday. Now for those who’s bias is always out front of their inquisitiveness it’ll just have been the ex-Marxist from the discredited Corbin regime. But to those slightly more intrigued it sounded like a sea change in good sense is re-percolating the Party.

Whilst whoever is in power faces some hellish choices the British public senses it needs some more balance, some kindness and some appreciation this will be a tough period but we can handle the choices we face more fairly whilst reducing the divisions that have infected us since the late noughties. The ideologues have had their moment and look where we’ve been left. The heart of our nation is in the moderate centre and we are slowly working our way back to that.

Sam Hill
Sam Hill
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

Well…I don’t know. Western voters (not just in the UK) have been very good at demanding change, but only rarely do I get any real sense of what that ‘change’ might actually be. Indeed we in the UK are simultaneously calling Liz Truss a libertarian ideologue at the same time as she enacts one of the biggest support packages ever seen in a western economy. You talk about the divisions in society – that BLM kneeling picture may yet haunt Labour.
Indeed arguably what would save Liz Truss right now is Russia leaving Ukraine rather than anything Starmer does or doesn’t do.
I agree completely that whoever is in power will have to face difficult choices – it’s all going to be on the table. Triple locked pensions, NHS, military – all of it. I hope you are right that the public at large will appreciate this.

Andrew Martin
Andrew Martin
1 year ago
Reply to  Sam Hill

Seems Labour have said they would oppose fracking at all costs. Does that mean they will stop expensive gas imports that has driven up family’s energy costs. Of course not. And there we have it… such hypocrisy. We can import everything but not produce it ourselves. With Hunt now reducing the support package It’s time realism should hit them in the face.

Marcus Leach
Marcus Leach
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

They can do much worse. They will go after wealth and business with tax, and drive them out of the country and out of business. They’ll go full in on the tiresome woke nonsense and the unions will be making everyone’s life a misery.
But the way I look at it, we are heading for a unprecedented global crash that will bring a long, hard recession. Instead of the Tories trying to stumble on for two years, taking the flak for the inevitavble cuts to public services, the bankrupcies and insolvencies, the mass unemployment and reposessions, just dump the mess in Labour’s lap and let them have to deal with inheriting a ruined economy for a change.
While Labour inevitably mess everything up and the Blairites and hard-left break out in to open warfare, the Tories can rebuild themselves in opposition, or preferably a real party of the right can replace them. In five years time the British people will have had its fill of Stateism and Socialism and will hopefully be ready to face up to the tough policies that need to be implemented to set the country on a sustainable course.

Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  Marcus Leach

A big risk though.

Albireo Double
Albireo Double
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

“…the British public senses it needs… …some kindness…”
Er. What?
Not sure from whence comes the assumption that “we” want more “kindness” in our government?
Does this mean you want to fire-hose yet more money at people who would prefer not to work? Or offer queue-jumping surgery to men who want to pretend to be women? Or improve the star rating of country house hotel in which we house illegal migrants? Upgrade the Netflix subscription in the jails? Jail rapists, child grooming gangs and murderers even less fleetingly than we now do?
Or do we want to be kinder with the solvent used to un-superglue the brain-dead fools who glue themselves to our roads? Maybe get the police to bring them a pizza and drop it into their mouths while they wait? Or teach the police to dance the Quickstep as well as the Macarena while people stab each other in a diverse way at carnivals?
No, you see I actually want a lot more toughness and a great deal less of this kindness. And I’ve a feeling that I am not alone in that.

Last edited 1 year ago by Albireo Double
Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  Albireo Double

What you have described is not kindness but serious compromise which will lead to lawlessness.

Tony Conrad
Tony Conrad
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

I wish I had your faith in Labour but I don’t.

Brian Statham
Brian Statham
1 year ago

This didn’t work out all that well did it?

Nicky Samengo-Turner
Nicky Samengo-Turner
1 year ago

I just cannot see what Liz Truss’s problem is? As MP for North Norfolk there are countless jobs for her? beating out shooting, washing up after shoot lunches? cleaning guns? even being a live scarecrow ?