In April, Emmanuel Macron became the first French president for two decades to win a second term. Two months later, he became the first French president in 34 years to be denied a parliamentary majority. French voters frequently complain that politicians never change anything — while protesting against any genuine attempts at change. In June they voted, deliberately or accidentally, for a deadlock.
Macron’s centrist alliance no longer had enough seats in the National Assembly to impose its will. No other group, or likely alliance, was large enough to dictate policy to the President. The result: stalemate. Or so it seemed. Two months on, no grand coalition has been formed. But nor is there a complete deadlock. Fears of instant chaos and early snap elections have proved exaggerated. France, after more than half a century of presidential, top-down politics, has rediscovered the messy joys of parliamentary democracy and verbal brawling.
Despite having 39 seats fewer than an overall majority, Macron’s prime minister, Elisabeth Borne, has managed to push through a €44 billion package of measures to blunt the impact of inflation. She may lack political experience, but she has proved to be a more effective parliamentary operator than many had predicted.
However, nothing difficult or truly controversial has yet been attempted. Deputies have been asked, in effect, to give away goodies to their constituents, including extending the price ceilings on gas and electricity, and subsidies on petrol and diesel prices. The unpleasant, uphill part of Macron’s second term is about to begin. September will see street marches for higher wages, as well as strikes and protests against the President’s proposed extension of the French retirement age to 64 and tougher rules for employment pay.
France is not a patient country: politics goes to the street more rapidly than in any other democracy. Macron’s opponents on the extremes of Right and Left now tell their supporters that his government is “illegitimate”. They say that the President does not represent a majority in parliament, let alone the country.
France is weathering the threat of Ukraine-war-generated stagflation reasonably well. Inflation is running at 6.1%, which is substantially less than in the UK and most other EU countries. Domestic power bills have been capped at 2021 levels or just above. Unemployment is still falling. But how long can Macron shield his nation from international inflationary forces? And what will it cost? Both the far-Left and far-Right are already pushing for the removal of sanctions against Russia. If Moscow cuts off EU gas supplies, the real cost of gas and electricity in France — and the cost to the state of subsidising them — will explode.
Given John’s track record in making predictions about French politics, I think we can be confident that what he predicts won’t happen.
It would appear to me that deadlock is precisely what the public wants. This has been the ideal situation in the U.S., we call it gridlock. It is the only way to keep government from further encroaching into our lives more than they already have. The politicos need to accept this, but they won’t. Power is intoxicating.
I hate it when longer working weeks and higher pension ages are referred to as “reforms.” Surely there needs to be another word, perhaps “regressions” or at least “austerities”? In any event, the present National Assembly probably does represent the current state of French public opinion, so presumably another general election would backfire.
What about ‘adjustment’ to longer life expectancy in the case of pension reforms? (And ‘righting a wrong’ with the kafkaesque 35 hours)
If only the pipls republic toylitte of nu britn could follow France and Italy and create a new party to wage war on the sandaloid eco racism LBGT incursion…
Bingo!