Is the PM sleeping on the job? Credit: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty
![](https://unherd.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/heffer-100x100.jpg)
It is hardly surprising that we have little time for reflection, as the New Year dawns, about matters beyond our own back yard. The “tidal wave” of Omicron has struck, the Nightingale hospitals are understaffed, the PCR tests have run out, the hospitality industry has been hit by panic, and large parts of the economy seem barely able to function as hundreds of thousands self-isolate. And yet, however bad matters of public health might be, and however diverting the implosion of possibly the most dishonest and incompetent government in British history, there is scope for life to get much, much worse.
Recently, I found myself in an intelligent conversation with a minister in the present government. That itself was something of an achievement: one reason why the government is so bad is that the present prime minister has as far as possible surrounded himself with yes-men and deep mediocrities. His hope, perhaps, was that they would be slow to recognise his laziness, unseriousness and inability to cope with his job; and that their inadequacies would distract the electorate from focusing on him. My interlocutor slipped through the net — and had been thinking about the wider world quite deeply.
His conclusions were depressing. They were, in short, that it is an exceptionally dangerous place, far more so than most realise; and that however grim 2020 and 2021 were, 2022 could be the most perilous year, particularly for the West, since the end of the Cold War.
We talked through his reasons for this gloom, beginning close to home. Since it was at the forefront of most people’s minds, we discussed the fear, promoted by the government, that the National Health Service could collapse as a result of the supposedly highly-transmissible Omicron variant. Before the NHS reached that stage (with its inevitable effects on public morale), action would have to be taken that would badly affected the economy here, with the promise of a renewed taxpayer-funded furlough scheme if businesses were forced to close. The Conservative party was divided over the need for such measures, not least because the lethality of the Omicron variant had yet to be proved. Now, although the rate of infections has reached record levels, the rate of hospitalisations and deaths lag far behind. This is encouraging a substantial cadre of MPs to argue that we must learn to live with Covid, supported by a vaccination programme. Should Boris Johnson remain prime minister, such dissent in his own party would, if his form is any guide, lead to an unclear and confused response by the government and therefore by other agencies. That, too, would be costly, but it would be only the start.
The new wave of Covid has attacked Europe, disrupting “normal” life. Even “rich” nations such as Germany (where the cost of the pandemic now exceeds €2 trillion, and inflation is above the EU average of 2.2%) are feeling the financial effects of a long period of subsidising non-productivity; in poorer countries in southern and eastern Europe, the prospects are even more stark, and tempers are fraying. Italy has a budget deficit of around 10%, and a new wave of restrictions will cause growth targets to be missed. Inflation will drive up interest rates across Europe, and the higher cost of servicing debt would put pressure on everyone with a bank loan or a mortgage: a factor behind, it seems, the Bank of England’s reluctance to raise rates in Britain, a reluctance that cannot be maintained indefinitely.
Poland and Hungary have both been sniping with Brussels over what they consider to be undue EU interference with their internal affairs — Poland about its justice system, Hungary about migration. Both countries, with an eye on the money that Brussels contributes to them — stress in public their commitment to a future within the EU, but an internal debate is being cranked up in both countries about when a breaking point will come, as it did in Britain in 2016. The EU has learned nothing from Brexit — quite the reverse, it seems — which is always a sign that history may repeat itself.
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeI was keen to read this until ‘the lethality of the Omicron variant had yet to be be proved’. In South Africa our level 1 restrictions have yesterday already been reduced and we are well into our second month of Omicron.
Then ‘the National Health Service could collapse’ – it has already collapsed given such a backlog in treatments and operations, was collapsing for decades and has ‘collapsed’ many times before during winter seasons.
The NHS never achieved a state of productivity or effectiveness from where collapse was possible.
An underrated comment.
What about AIDS is remotely comparable to Covid?
They both bring about sharpest social divisions between those variously perceived as clean and unclean
Fauci didn’t want people taking medications for either. Granted, none of them were proven for these particular problems. But medications never can be proven if you don’t let experiments with them happen.
The main reason, I would wager, that the NHS is collapsing is because the population of the UK has risen by 10 million in 20 years and simply can’t cope with the numbers.
The year ahead seems like it could be much worse than last, which is unsettling.
One driver the author does not consider is the population growth within Africa. Nigeria, not much larger than Texas, has a population of 200 million, which will be 450 million in under 30 years and 750 million by 2100.
Polls frequently show that 30% of Sub Saharan Africans want to migrate to Europe.
Assuming that this proportion remains the same, and taking Nigeria alone (never mind the other scores of African countries undergoing the same demographic explosion), we can expect 80 million Nigerians to be looking to migrate to Europe over the next 30 years.
In this case Europe will either accept mass migration and become culturally African or slip into an authoritarian backlash and reject them, likely causing freedoms we currently take for granted to become a distant memory.
And the idea that Africans will find jobs in Africa is mad. African leaders only ever talk about the sweatshop model of development, hoping to copy what China has done.
They fail to see that this will not be repeatable because low skilled jobs are being rapidly automated away at an accelerating rate.
High skill jobs require high quality education, but no governments that I know of are investing in this.
In Zimbabwe, where I am, literacy rates have fallen precipitously in the last 20 years. And South Africa and Mozambique (to name just two examples in the region) are also in decline.
It amazes me that population growth is an obvious driver for mass migration, yet still politically taboo to discuss, even in articles such as this one, which seemingly aim to be sober about the problems ahead.
This is no surprise – I have been having this sort of discussion with my progressive friends for years. When I say that the Middle East, Africa and some of the Far East will not fit into Europe and North America, they just shrug their shoulders.
And we still have to read that there aren’t enough people on Earth Be sure there will just be a redistribution and before long, Europe and the North America will definitely be predominantly Middle Eastern and African.
these sort changes and population migrations have been happening throughout human history: good luck to those who want to stop this…
You just need the political will
That sounds like an argument for the reelection of Donald Trump. He is almost certainly apt to do a better job this time in anticipating the sabotage of the deep state.
You wouldn’t even need that much force to stop it, these people are not a well-armed and organised invasion force.
Surely that’s his major point! There is very little political will to be found anywhere except in Russia and China with France and the UK coming very distant joint 3rd or t**d as we say in Ireland!
They also tend to bring societies crashing down – ie, Rome – something you studiedly ignore.
Not at such speed or on such a scale.
Especially when climate migrations kick in.
Societies will collapse.
Good luck with that.
Peacefully, on this scale? I don’t think so.
Not at the giant sizes in terms of numbers, or the velocity we see today
Thank God I will be dead by then
Excellent point, Hayden! I agree with you 100%!
Population growth is hated by environmentalists, but loved by economists and, especially, by businessmen.
In a growing population they can sell more and more of everything, from houses to insurance, cars to electricity. Never mind if most of the manufactured goods and half the food have to be imported, it’s all good for business.
If you think immigration is a problem, don’t say so too often or you will be regarded as obsessive and disreputable. Besides, you have no-one to vote for.
I agree about the problems, which are decades in the making – leading to decades of consequence.
Looked at in retrospect, 2022 might have been one of the easiest ..
Excellent response. And the silly, silly bien pensant left will endlessly point the guilt gun at Europe and North America to open their borders to the millions of Africans whose governments are incapable of providing employment for their rapidly expanding populations ( capable only of advancing their own tribal interests and lining their own pockets).
Those millions are desperate to experience the “systemic racism” of the host countries and to bring their extended families along to experience it with them, and to add their voices to the chorus of the “marginalised” ” ro speak their truth” to the the oppressors .
And the progressives who demand that the NHS must turn away no one will assist the decrepit British health system to become the IHS (International Health System) because “racism”, because history, because “décolonisation””, because reasons….
And the progressives will celebrate this bonfire of the vanities because they are utterly convinced of the fundamental evil of Western civilisation.
That’s because ‘population growth’ is not only no longer an acceptable term it is verging on hate speech. Displacement of people is caused only by climate change! Please repeat!
Until we are able to to shred out the liars and cowards from the political/media establishment and replace with those prepared to not only face but deal with reality we are doomed.
Thanks for great post.
That is the main issue which is not addressed by “global warming” clowns.
Even if the so called West shut down all economic activity, pollution generated by China, India and all other countries in Africa and Asia would still killed the world as we know it, if you believe their theories.
But these clowns never discuss these issues because they are not “politically correct”.
West should start with sinking boats in Mediterranean and English Channel.
We need to stop pretending that these hordes are anything but invaders.
Personally, I don’t care about Africa and Asia if their people don’t come to Europe.
All social and political freedoms and ‘inalienable’ rights that we TOOK for granted have already been shown to be entirely contingent on any fanatical cabal that can manage to terrorise the masses by way of the MSM.
Keep up! The latest doom mongering is world population DECLINE…..!!
[open mouthed amazement] – you live? In Z…..we? You’re not a farmer then?
I’m sorry but what on earth is the point of this article?
Agreed – it doesn’t add any new information for any reasonably informed reader.
All it really says is that next year will be challenging (as per always) and we would like more competent governments (as per always).
“All it really says is that next year will be challenging (as per always) and we would like more competent governments (as per always).”
No, it advances the argument that the challenges may be a great deal worse than anything our present-day leaders and institutions have faced in living memory.
This is arguably correct. Just look at the unbelievable hash Western nations have made of dealing with Covid. We have all added more debt to the books than we did in the global banking crisis of 2009, for no better reason than we basically told about half of each of our economies to stop producing. This has to be restated: the usual priority of always seeking growth, because it is what raises living standards and powers progress, was abruptly reversed on principle because of a disease that, it now turns out, only provoked an increase in average mortality at the very beginning of the pandemic, which was over by the time the lockdowns started.
This is very obviously an example of a f***-up so huge that nobody can get their heads round it so we all revert to sniping about other people’s politics or whatever, but it ought to be impossible to ignore that we in the West have spent two years collectively behaving like frightened spoilt children, while China and Russia look on with amazed delight at the opportunity presented. In due course both these adversaries will move against Taiwan and Eastern Europe respectively, and the West will respond by doing nothing.
We are not in charge any more, and it matters.
What we desperately need is cheap energy
I do so agree. Reliable, cheap energy, at that.
Many of your points are justifiable, but are not 2022 specific e.g the effects of delayed growth and the debt accumulation (over the last 15 years) are more likely to land in the 2030s than 2022.
Also, never underestimate the patience of the Chinese government …. they are more likely to wait until the power of the US has waned further over the next decades.
The downside risk to China of a Taiwan invasion seems to diminish every year that passes – so no hurry.
Putin however, may be less patient …. whether or not the “EU is leaderless” they have no military power for the foreseeable future.
I am not so sure about China and Taiwan. The younger generation in Taiwan have only lived under the current democracy and increasingly see themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese. They tend to support the view that Taiwan should be officially independent. Add to that the possibility that the US may appoint a more competent leader in 2024 and China may decide that if it doesn’t make a move now it may not get another chance. Xi Jinping clearly wants to go down in history as Mao’s equal and “unifying” the country would be important to that ambition.
In 1939 most Poles supported the idea that Poland should be independent. That made no difference when first Germany, then Russia, crossed the borders.
Could the US elect any leader who would commit to an unwinnable war in the South China Sea? I’m not one of those who gloats over American failure but after Iraq and Afghanistan we all know the score.
While, I agree with your general point about West (USA really) reluctance to defend Taiwan, there are many other options available.
Can China survive prolong issues with oil supply and being unable to export anything?
At the moment and probably for another 20 years, China has no way stopping USA from blocking Chinese bound trade.
In a way China faces Japan predicament in late 1930s.
Without oil China is just paper tiger.
Chinese are relaying on Russian oil and gas.
Putin is willing to play along for now.
Surely though, scenario is similar to Soviet Union alliance with Hitler?
China is like a dog looking at a juicy steak of Siberia.
Half asleep (or pretending) while being fed oil and gas by tzar in Kremlin.
This bargain did not work out well for Russia when dealing with Hitler.
Would it work better now?
Who knows.
But I doubt it.
Woe, woe, woe, thrice woe! From a ‘social conservative’ who regularly criticises the Government.
Perhaps you could offer a useful perspective yourself, rather than simply throw stones.
We all gotta earn a living.
Waffle for supper.
It’s a good survey of our current problems.
I guess it’s just an unnecessary reminder that the leaders of the west are woefully feeble, the incoming batch will be worse and we’ll get what we deserve.
OK, you list lots of things, all which can be bad, like lots of mosquitoes though – compared to the Big issues.
THE big one is USA 138% debt to GDP, $75 Trillion in unfunded Mandates, $80 Billion a month deficit spending internationally, a society which produces little goods, yet consumes the largest share, one where ‘The labour Participation Rate’ (people of working age not in work) is escalating greatly and productivity is declining. Then the huge balloon the stock Market is in, and Real-Estate, all hard assets, the Zero Interest needed and kept by QE as Leverage debt in investing is the greatest ever, as is personal, corporate, City, State, and National Debt. And inflation is about %8 and Bond Yields are negative 6% real interest, and USA Just monetized 12 $ Trillion as ‘Covid Relief/Costs, created from air.
And the EU even worse, and China as bad, and the developing world on edge.
Cannot raise interest to fight inflation or the debt goes into default. Inflation is destroying the pensions and all fixed income, it is devouring savings and cash, and pay is Not Keeping Up. But the biggest thing is inflation coupled with no interest is doing, is to force all money ‘Out Onto The Risk Curve’, ie. seeking risky investments to avoid the loss from inflation – but Risky, And blowing all the bubbles even bigger.
And so this will ‘Correct’, or Crash as we know it. The GFC of 2008 markets fell over 50%, in the Great depression, 90%, in the 2000 dot come crash 78%. As the people all have been forced into the market by high Inflation and zero interest it will trigger a global depression. The world uses the $ as its Reserve Currency – so the $ may even climb in nominal terms – but millions and millions will perish – and the end of entitlements, pensions, savings, jobs, money…….
That is what I expect for the 2022 – 2024. But then I have held my money in cash and gold since 2020, and watch inflation eat my cash – wile if I had put it into the big 5 stocks it would have doubled…. so have it wrong so far. I am doing real-estate – and it is in a bubble, but I just am building a rental cottage by hand as I am a tradesman – and decided to put my cash in that – and the property crash will hit that……. There is just nothing safe. No Bonds, Treasuries, Gilts, CDs… to just park it as they pay no interest, we all are either forced to risk, or loss to inflation….. There is NO way to hide from the future crash unless wealthy, or guess right.
Why do you think Bitcoin continues to be so popular… max 21M supply…Digital Gold…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ToffjIo6hk
Who knows ? Do you ?
Yes he does. As is evident per his response to the above comment. Bitcoin, as much as I personally dislike it, is superior to gold as a hedge against market instabilities in many ways. First, it can be used as currency-independent payment, second, it can be transferred over borders very easily, third, the finite supply promises a steady increase in value.
Bitcoin is the only thing that’s not in a bubble, because it was never worth anything to begin with; yet, people still want it and there is a finite supply. It is the gold of digital payments, in an age of digital currencies.
Yes..and this may be at the heart of our strategy against Covid. Perhaps this is why we overplayed the risks. We use the pandemic as the excuse of what broke us. Meanwhile, we filled the coffers that needed to be filled
Well, we want you to feel at home.
Lets just say this government is incompetent, and drop the complicating descriptive “ever”. It would be great to have some demonstration of the thesis: clearly, it was elected in December 2019 to “get Brexit done”. Then came “Covid”: a huge opportunity for Rejoiners to derail Brexit. Lets go from there.
I agree with much of Simon Heffer’s analysis, but what I most want to hear are some positive suggestions of what should be done as a result. Journalists and analysts, as a tribe, neglect the questions ‘so what?’ or ‘how should we then live? Surely the alternative thinkers amongst the UnHerd staff and commentators can postulate some ideas to start a better conversation
A capable minister in Boris Johnson’s cabinet who “slipped through the net”. I’m intrigued who it might be because I don’t see it!
I wish Simon Heffer had told us who it is. It sounds as though he should be the next PM.
Probably Gove?
That’s what I assumed. Interesting how there’s nothing there about a positive future for Brexit or the threat to the UK’s territorial integrity from Ireland and the EU.
The Ministers for Paperclips and Without Portfolio are pretty good, I believe.
And the Chancellor of the Soke of Peterborough promises things too.
Here is your summary chart of Heffer’s piece:
Do not be so sad and glum
There’s bound to be far worse to come.
David Lammy will save us.
From immigration controls ?
UK government does not rule the country. It is the inner party of globalists who call the shots and who would sell their mothers’ grave if they could make money with that. The outer party are the useful idiots of the Church of Woke who help to subdue the proles with horror stories about a collapsing NHS. Most people are healthy and they would not even notice it if the complete NHS was burned down with all the consultants, diversity officers, bean counters and it-specialists in it. The people with BS-jobs would notice the collapse, because they would still get money without having going through the motions of pretending to work. A bit like lock down now, but without the Zoom calls. For the rest it is of utter irrelevance to the man in the street who becomes French president, what the Fourth Reich in Brussels this time comes up with or what colour underwear Liz Truss wears. What is the relevance of this article? Where is the news?
Things will probably kick off after the football next year.
I think this likelihood is massively under priced!
so a ‘“year of two halves” then ….
Can we stop the Putin bashing for five minutes?
And what about the West surrounding Russia with NATO elements – something it promised it wouldn’t do? Russia is simply acting as thee West would in such a situation.
In the FT today, they asked a lot of questions like will this happen, will that happen. They cover issues like the French election, the invasion of Taiwan, the fate of the Ukraine and they predict that for various reasons, these disasters will not happen. They offer us the opportunity to make our own predictions to various questions at http://www.ft.com/predict2022. Could be a larf!
‘But what should perhaps worry the West most of all, at the dawn of this dangerous year, is that none of its constituent nations has a leader of the experience, the clout and the moral authority required to deal with this bouquet of challenges if, or when, they arrive.’
Cometh the hour, cometh the… whatever.
It is not correct that Biden has said he could not militarily intervene in the case of Taiwan. In fact quite the reverse, he has said he would.
From the perspective of New Zealand, continental Europe’s internal bickering seem a bit irrelevant, though they do seem to indicate the continuing decline of Europe as it loses self confidence.
Time to purchase a fiddle.
Hear, hear!!!
A piece disguised as of a global nature, and yet simply in reality an opportunity to bash Boris. How boring.
Ahh… just read the latter pages of The Book of Revelation… is the world at that point?
Ukraine has an army of 255,000 with 900,000 reservists, much better armed and motivated than a few years ago. Russia would be faced with a major war.
That’s an interesting point. While we pontificate on what the West will or won’t do, there is no comment on the capability or responsibility of a sovereign state to prepare to defend itself against a threat that has been visible for years.
Similarly Taiwan, a nation with sufficient financial and intellectual resources to prepare a defence that maybe can’t win, but can make the cost too high.
At least Liz Truss is saying the right things. That’s a start.
They all say the right things until we are conned into electing them when they start doing the wrong things.
The piece makes no mention of the very real threat of a nuclear armed Iran some time in 2022. This is a surprising omission, given the likely collapse of the Vienna talks which have got precisely nowhere.
“It could be that we sail through 2022 with vaccination programmes bringing down Covid”
What is this author doing on UnHerd?
resting
And you haven’t even mentioned the West’s response to Iranian meddling, aggression and armament.