The past decade is littered with political obituaries announcing Benjamin Netanyahu’s imminent departure from office — and each has ended up looking more absurd than the last. Here in Israel, predictions of his downfall have become a fixture of daily political life; so much so that he is often greeted with cheers of “he is a wizard, he is a wizard” at his Likud Party’s events whenever he sees off another challenge. To put it simply, when Netanyahu is on the ropes, you can usually be sure he won’t stay there for long.
This time, however, it feels different. Yes, Netanyahu is the same skilled politician. And yes, despite the political turmoil of recent times — resulting in four elections in half as many years — he has overseen a number of major triumphs: from Israel’s world-leading Covid-19 vaccination roll-out to its normalisation of relations with four Arab countries to his cool-headed manner in the country’s latest conflict with Hamas.
But even a political genius can make mistakes, and it looks like Netanyahu is about to get his comeuppance on one of his most enduring flaws: his cultivation of protégés who he then discards, fearing that they might one day challenge him. For years, it seemed like this was just politics; Netanyahu didn’t want to promote someone only for that person to take him down, so he pre-emptively saw off any potential competitors.
Little did he know that there could one day be consequences. Israeli politicians are currently involved in coalition negotiations after another inconclusive parliamentary election. There are, of course, a number of reasons for Netanyahu’s inability to form a government in three of the past four elections. But the most important has been the Right’s majority in the Knesset after each one, and their refusal to be part of a coalition led by Netanyahu.
And the leaders of the three main Right-wing parties who have declined to be in Netanyahu’s coalition all have one thing in common: they all used to work closely with him — until they were no longer useful.
First, there is Avigdor Liberman, leader of Yisrael Beytenu. Liberman was Netanyahu’s chief of staff when he was prime minister in the 1990s, but after that, decided to form a new party that appealed to immigrants from the former Soviet Union. That wasn’t the end of their relationship; in the 22 years since Yisrael Beytenu’s founding, Liberman has served as both foreign minister and defence minister under Netanyahu. Their parties even ran together in 2013, as part of a joint parliamentary slate called Likud Beytenu.
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SubscribeThe real political problems in forming a government are that a) there is no such thing as party loyalty and b) a system of proportional representation that makes it too easy to be elected to the Knesset and thus too difficult for any party or coalition to construct a majority.
Reform of the electoral process is the only path to a stable government in Israel but it is in no party’s political interest for that to happen.
Indeed.
Proportional representation always produces instability.
Not always. Sometimes it just leads to the two largest parties always, or almost always, forming a coalition government together, with who has more seats determining who will lead, as in Germany.
One way means that a moderate party trades horses with the extreme end of its own “wing”, and falls the moment the horse-trading fails, the other that the centrists are in perpetual power. Neither is appealing, and neither, arguably, is great for democracy, despite what those who argue for PR would have you believe.
Israel faces the existential issue of how to react to a nuke-acquiring Iran while America is “led” by senile corruptocrat fronting an anti-Israel party. Bibi has the global standing and relationships with Biden, Putin and Arab opponents of Iran. Noone else comes close. Those Jews who want to push him out in favour of a pushme-pullyou, right-left pantomime horse disgust me.
I came across this you tube channel recently, with interviews conducted with ordinary passersby who are Israeli or quite often Palestinian.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc4iogeOUXNw1RZSNTOlMeg
It is quite interesting, although admittedly people do give the impression of dissembling quite a lot of the time.
My biggest surprise was how non-European the Israelis look, given we are told Ashkenazis are the biggest group. Another surprise was how uninterested they seemed to be in the lands their ancestors lived in until relatively recently.
If you by-pass the Western media’s implicit narrative, you will discover that more than half of Israeli Jews left or were expelled from Arab and Muslim countries after Israel’s re-establishment as the nation state of the Jewish people. They have long memories of persecution and living as (at best) second class citizens. Not unrelatedly, they also harbor warm memories of those countries in which, for the most part, their now desolated communities preceded the advent of Islam by centuries if not more.
Another favored but false narrative is that of Netanyahu the war monger. Aside from simple observation, the fallout with Lieberman is emblematic of his penchant to calibrate any use of force. While this strategy wins him no credit in the world press, as most recently demonstrated in Gaza, it is probably the case that matters would be far worse politically for Israel had he authorized an amount of force in dealing with Hamas or Hezbollah more in keeping with how Western armies operated in Iraq.
I have no love for Bibi, but I think it’s a great mistake to write him off yet. A government without Likud is government that disagrees with itself on every major issue. Whatever they they sign up to today won’t last that reality of backing something that’s 180 degrees from where your party stands.
Good points. The idea that Naftali Bennett would survive as prime minister the next 2 years seems fantastic. And that Yair Lapid would then take his place even more of a fantasy.
These people have to know that. I guess they see an advantage in just getting Benjamin Netanyahu out of office so that the charges against him can advance. Then the knives will come out again to make the coalition collapse.
What a strange article. The descriptions contained of how the relationships progressed in no way support the supposed thesis.
Forgive my ignorance, but the story we are often told in Ireland (and I appreciate that this is a deeply hostile state vis a vis Israel) is that it is Zionists that undermine peace through settlement building.
I am well enough read to know that this is a media construct, but I do wonder what the difference is between a party that is “right of Likud” but unwilling to ally with religious orthodox groups.
Can someone explain, or point me at a resource I can learn from, please?
Simple. The ultra-orthodox groups are opposed to Zionism and the Jewish state. They opt out of military service and I think have other ‘perks’ not available to your average Israeli. Some might call them ‘freeloaders’ or spongers. So if your politics are to the right of Likud, it seems obvious you’d have ‘issues’ with religious nutters!