Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that two months from now Donald J Trump has left the White House. And, to simplify things, let’s say — though we can be no means 100% confident in doing so — that he does not leave in the back of a paddy-wagon or the back of a hearse. I mean, let’s say that the election takes place, Joe Biden wins by a comfortable enough margin that even Trump realises that the jig’s up.
Let’s say he doesn’t fight the whole way to the Supreme Court, doesn’t try to start a civil war, doesn’t throw two arms around a stout leg of the Resolute Desk and have to be dragged crying and blubbering in a most undignified way from the Oval Office. Let’s say that. What happens next? Who are the winners and the losers?
Well, there’s the big man himself, for a start. There’s no question that Trump wouldn’t much like losing office. Defeat in the election would hurt his ego in ways that many of us will find it exquisitely sweet to imagine. Also, a return to civilian life would pose him two big problems. One is that he would be liable for criminal prosecution and civil litigation in so many departments you wouldn’t quite know where to begin. No doubt he’ll have a go at issuing a blanket pardon to himself, on all counts, before he leaves office.
That may help with all the Mueller stuff, the emoluments clause and so on; but it wouldn’t be of much use with civil cases over his various sexual and financial shenanigans. Also, if the leaks of his tax returns are to be believed, he’s soon about to have to find half a billion dollars or so to pay back his various creditors — and he’s no longer going to have the griftable assets of the Presidency to help pay them off. I know: your heart pumps jelly-babies, right?
But spare a thought for the real victims in all this. It will be all the people on my side: all those handwringing liberals whose dearest wish is the removal of the kandy-koloured tangerine-flake lie-machine from the White House. An entire industry has been built on the Trump outrage machine, and it has been as profitable and exhilarating an enterprise for his opponents as it has been for his family members. No longer.
Where does The Resistance go if it doesn’t have anything to resist? As Sleepy Joe ambles into the White House in his Wee Willy Winky nightcap, promising an era of sensible things done quietly, of technocratic solutions to tricky problems, of bipartisan fence-mending and all that sort of boring stuff, all the energy will go out of politics. The great glorious mad balloon-economy of Politics Under Trump will sort of… deflate.
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