Credit: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post/ Getty
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Donald Trump wants to resume nuclear testing. That’s a sentence I hoped never to write. Rumours started circulating in mid-May that the president wants to stage a test as soon as possible — the first since 23 September 1992. Since every test is an aggressive political act, a resumption brings the threat of nuclear war inevitably closer.
The subject arose at a meeting of national security officials on 15 May after the administration accused both Russia and China of conducting low-level nuclear tests. Those accusations have not been verified by independent nuclear watchdogs like the Federation of Atomic Scientists. Both China and Russia deny testing.
Drew Walter, the acting deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear matters, insisted that there’s been “no policy change” within the Trump administration regarding the issue, though he did admit that “a very quick test with limited diagnostics” could occur “within months” if ordered by the president. “I think it would happen relatively rapidly.”
The most important phrase in Walter’s statement is “limited diagnostics”. That’s effectively an admission that the rationale is politics, not technology. In an event hosted by the Mitchell Institute on 26 May, Walter revealed that the time necessary to prepare for “a fully diagnostic” test that provides “lots of data, all the bells and whistles … might be measured in years”. The US, however, is in a hurry.
Nuclear tests are almost always motivated by political purposes. Physicists know their stuff; they have a good idea whether a device will work and what the yield will be. The very first device exploded over Hiroshima in 1945 was, for instance, not actually tested beforehand because Manhattan Project scientists knew it would work. The second bomb, exploded over Nagasaki, was tested a few weeks earlier at Alamogordo, New Mexico, only because it involved more complicated implosion technology.
That Alamogordo test was arguably the only one in history free of propaganda motive. Every subsequent one has carried with it an element of sabre rattling. During the Cold War, tests became a method of waging war by other means, a way of saying: ‘Beware’. When the US conducted a series of tests in July 1946 at Bikini Atoll, they invited 170 journalists from around the world. A floating press office made sure the news got out.
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SubscribeA little disappointing Mr DeGroot. I have
previously admired much of your work but this piece seems to be yet another anti Trump polemic.
“Predictability is essential to nuclear harmony” That sounds like very feeble pseudo liberal tosh to me.
Trump may not be a “rational ” man and therefore unpredictable, but surely that is to his advantage?
His opponent will/should be wary.
Your précis of the Cuban Missile Crisis was also disingenuous to say the least, and hardly a shining example of the rational approach! As you well know, that ‘crisis’ was initiated by the US placing Jupiter (nuclear tipped) missiles in Turkey, close to the Soviet Border. Khrushchev’s response
was a classic chess move, which had the desired result would you not agree? This incident was in fact pragmatic not rational.
Today, off course, the antics of the CCP have brought forward the real possibility of nuclear confrontation. Unlike the old USSR, the CCP really thinks it can win. You had better have a word with them. Perhaps they will understand the concept of ‘nuclear harmony’, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Did he really say that?
He obviously couldn’t read German or perhaps didn’t understand Clausewitz!
An excellent piece, well argued.
Encouraging your enemies to think you might act irrationally is part of the game (theory). I’d suggest The Orange Antichrist understands the political ramifications of letting it be known he’s in favour of the idea of carrying out a nuclear test perfectly well.
Who can he be hoping is paying close attention?
“All war is a continuation of diplomacy by other means”- Carl von Clausewitz.