Casting your eye over international news these days is a confusing activity: major conflicts such as the war in Yemen still rage on but there are far more small-scale attacks across the globe, where it is hard to attribute culpability — or even motive. These so-called “non-violent threshold events” include drone attacks on Saudi oil installations, where the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels shut down half of the country’s oil production; cyber-attacks on Baltic countries, purportedly by Russian-backed cyber-collectives, which led to an October 2019 partnership agreement with the USA to protect the regions energy grid; and GPS spoofing of South Korean ships and planes.
Many are arguing that global warfare is changing; but is it really, or is this part of a much longer cycle?
Small-scale attacks are usually a deliberate strategy by less powerful actors who do not have a choice: rebels and insurgents, global protest groups, and weaker states such as North Korea or Iran. Often, they seek to challenge America and her traditional allies, but to do so in a way that sits below the threshold of overt warfare — by operating in the so-called “grey zone”, as the Chief of the Defence staff, General Sir Nick Carter, outlined his annual address to the Royal United Services Institute. These actors do not want to provoke a response, particularly a military one.
For a minimal outlay, a small player (relatively speaking), can have an outsized impact on an adversary, where it otherwise could not. In warfare this is known as asymmetry. General H.R. McMaster, former US National Security Adviser, once said: “There are two ways to fight the US: asymmetrically and stupid.”
But, in fact, asymmetry is a key, if not the key, dynamic that all sides try to utilise in warfare. It is the most effective way to have a psychological effect on (or to send a message to) your enemy. This, throughout the ages, has been the whole point of warfare.
There are two types of asymmetry: with overt military power (tanks, infantry, and suchlike), one wants to amass as much force as possible against a weaker enemy force to shatter its cohesion (think of the D-Day amphibious operations in 1944). With covert, or non-traditional military activities, one is trying to generate a large impact, often against a big target, with a small outlay. The best example of this in recent times is, of course, the attacks of 11 September, 2001 in New York, which reportedly cost al-Qaeda $400,000 to carry out (compared with the $6tn cost of the “Global War on Terror”).
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