Can you psychoanalyse a nation? The question sounds preposterous — but only, perhaps, because it hasn’t yet been addressed by a brain the size of Jared Diamond’s.
If we analysed historical moments in Japan, Germany, and other countries through the lens of ‘crisis therapy’ of the kind offered to individuals, we might get a better idea of how countries can respond to challenging events in future, and so draw up a kind of geopolitical playbook or 12-step program for leaders around the world.
So, at least, runs the programme of Upheaval: How Nations Cope with Crisis and Change, in which Diamond, having become famous for applying geography and ecology to the history of human civilisation in his bestselling books Guns, Germs and Steel and Collapse, now turns for a framing discipline to therapy. When an individual is in a personal crisis, he explains, there are a dozen factors (yes, 12 steps) that predict how successful he or she will be at emerging from it, the first being “acknowledgment that one is in crisis”, and other being things such as “individual core values”, “ego strength”, “flexibility”, and so forth.
The way in which Diamond translates these into qualities of nations near the start of the book is already telling. Britain refused to negotiate with Hitler in 1940, he says, because of a “core value” which was “We shall never surrender”. It’s not clear why this is defined as a core value rather than as an example of splendid obstinacy, except that his scheme requires “flexibility” always to be a virtue, and this is an example where flexibility would have been bad.
So far, then, an arbitrary framework filled with vague bromides has been imposed upon international politics. The next stage of the book is to examine some historical moments in detail and then read off some vague bromides from them in order to validate the imposed framework.
So Diamond proceeds to do. Happily for the reader, the series of historical stories that follow are brilliantly told and may be read with pleasure and profit regardless of the uses to which they are put. Diamond narrates Finland’s war with the Soviet Union and its subsequent clever accommodation with it; the modernisation of Japan after the Meiji Restoration in the 19th century; how Chile recovered democratic norms after the Pinochet dictatorship; the troubled birth of Indonesian independence and nation-building; the rebuilding of post-war Germany; and Australia’s post-war abandonment of its “white Australia” immigration policy.
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