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As the war in Ukraine has become more entrenched, there has been much discussion of the small Eastern European states which might be annexed into the Russian Federation. South Ossetia is now holding a referendum on whether it wants to rejoin Russia and there’s talk of Transnistria and perhaps even Belarus being absorbed by the Federation. Many fear that invasion of Ukraine is only the start of wider territorial ambitions for Russia.
But what if the opposite is true? Sergej Sumlenny is a Russian-born journalist and political scientist who predicts that, within 3-5 years, Russia will break up into a group of independent states. He argues that Russia’s many ethnic states are perfectly poised for secession, some with long histories of agitation and others with a newfound resentment of Moscow in light of the war.
He talked Freddie Sayers through how the Russian Federation could come to an end…
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