October 21, 2024 - 5:10pm
Moldova’s vote in favour of joining the European Union should have been a source of joy for the country’s pro-Europe President, Maia Sandu. However, the mood among her supporters was subdued last night. Leaving campaign headquarters early, they abandoned the EU flags they had gathered to celebrate what was widely expected to be a resounding vote of confidence by Moldovans in favour of enshrining the long-term goal of EU membership in the country’s constitution.
Instead, just 50.46% voted in favour. Yet the source of Moldovans’ apparent division on the issue — and Sandu’s disappointment — is likely to lie not in the country itself but rather further afield, in Moscow. Sandu released a statement today about the result, complaining that “criminal groups, working together with foreign forces hostile to our national interests, have attacked our country with tens of millions of euros, lies and propaganda, using the most disgraceful means to keep our citizens and our nation trapped in uncertainty and instability.”
While Sandu did not herself name Russia as the culprit, Moldovan authorities this month accused pro-Russia Moldovan-Israeli tycoon Ilan Shor and his affiliates of funnelling over $15million in Russian funds to around 130,000 Moldovan citizens — roughly 10% of the active electorate. In a Telegram video last month, Shor said he would pay voters for registering with his campaign and even more for voting “No” in the referendum.
The vote will not impact upon Moldova’s entry into the EU, since the referendum was not legally binding and accession talks, which began in June, will continue. However, Moscow has deprived Sandu of her resounding victory and the opportunity to finally put an end to the enduring internal debate about whether Chișinǎu should lean towards Moscow or the West.
Sunday’s referendum on Moldova’s EU pathway was also accompanied by the first round of the presidential election, in which Sandu took 42.3% of the vote. Her main rival, former prosecutor-general Alexandr Stoianoglo, won 26.1% — far stronger than the 10% that he had previously polled.
The scene is now set for a tense run-off on 3 November, as Sandu tries to defeat a challenger whom the Kremlin would undoubtedly prefer. Stoianoglo is backed by the pro-Russia Party of Socialists, whose leader Igor Dodon did not stand in order to clear the way for him. For his own part, Stoianoglo has discussed implementing a foreign policy that would be “balanced” between Russia and the EU, and has said of the President’s avowed support for Ukraine: “We must never use military rhetoric. Maia Sandu supports Ukraine. She’s going to drag us into war.”
In case that music to Moscow’s ears was not quite enchanting enough, he has also taken a Kremlin-friendly conservative line on LBGT rights that is likely to put him at odds with the EU, and has pledged to purchase Russian gas.
Scenes of disorder are likely to take place in Moldova in the coming days: authorities believe Moscow was behind a wave of pre-election vandalism against government buildings and have detained around 300 people suspected of being trained in Russia to break police cordons and spark public disorder. However, this is nothing compared to the energy the Kremlin will now likely expend to get rid of Sandu in favour of installing on Ukraine’s periphery a candidate whose support for Kyiv and Brussels is much less assured. Now that truly would be an electoral win for Moscow.
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SubscribeHmm. I feel like this essay is misting something. More Russia Russia Russia hand wringing – and misinformation and disinformation claims. Is the author suggesting that giving 130,000 people $100 to vote against the EU actually influenced the referendum in a meaningful way? If this is the case. Moldova has some really troubling economic issues. Maybe a bunch of people in Moldova just think the EU is a dysfunctional, authoritarian regime itself.
Yes.
And Moldova does indeed have troubling economic issues. As well as widespead corruption – which is even worse in the so-called Transnistria. It’s the poorest country in Europe.
Russia has been interfering in Moldova since 1940, when it was integrated within Romania. Until the Russians invaded. It’s no coincidence that the “Moldovans” speak Romanian and the adjoining Romanian province is called Moldova. They are Romanians. Apart from the residual Russian colonialists implanted in the country. And several other smaller minorities.
So yes, Russian interference is well known and documented. It’s not news.
I don’t know if you’ve been to any of these ex-Soviet bloc countries (I’ve spent a lot of time in Romania). If you have, you’ll appreciate just how strong and lasting the legacy of the Communist brainwashing and fake history they taught them in school still is and how easily suggestible some people still are.
If the Moldovans really want to join the EU (I suspect the majority really do), it will only be done by bending the admission rules so they “pass”. Just as was the case with Romania and Bulgaria – and Greece for the Euro. There’s a lot of work and time before they adjust to the western way of doing things. And the EU might be well advised to steer clear of it for a while or let things gradually evolve.
Personally, I could settle for settling Ukraine so Russia keeps some of the eastern part if they finally get out of Moldova (and preferably the Kaliningrad colony where they don’t belong either). This would clean up the enclaves and borders and be more stable.
If Moldavia and its citizens want to rejoin Russia, is this something we should interfere with? I am very skeptical that people are being brainwashed. People vote on bread and butter issues. If the Moldovan govt was making life better and more prosperous for its citizens, no amount of propaganda would push them towards Russia.
We see something similar happening across Europe. People aren’t supporting populist parties because they have been convinced by propaganda. They are supporting populists because traditional parties have failed to deliver competent govt that creates prosperity for their people.
These are the dangerous conditions created by a political and technocractic elite that has failed to deliver competent policy. It sets the stage for political destabilization – and that’s when truly bad outcomes are possible.
Propaganda is a lie, while the truth lays in our “message” that needs to be “communicated” in the right way..!
In other words.. our propaganda delivers the truth effectively so that the wrong message will not find ways to be communicated..!
Or not..?
Point 1: Moldova (not Moldavia) was *never part of Russia*. It was a colony of the Soviet Union after WWII. Romanian before that. And variously a colony of the Russian and Ottoman empires before htat.
Point 2: The majority of its citizens (82% Romanaians, 6% Ukrainians, 4% Russians) certainly do not want to be part of Russia. Where is your evidence for this claim ? Like in Northern Ireland, the long term stable solution is to reunify with Romania (again, they are Romanians). But it won’t happen any time soon. Too much of a burden and trouble for the Romanians to be seriously interested for now.
Point 3: What do you think the Russians have been doing continuously in Moldova since WWII if it isn’t propaganda ? They certainly have form and a lot more practice than the West in this.
Perhaps you should actually go and visit Moldova and see for yourself.
So Crimea, Donbas and Transnistria should be Russian, along with the Russian enclave in Georgia? ie Redrawing of the Soviet Borders in a post Soviet World? Which IIRC is what the US required in the Balkans and former Yugoslavia. Though, curiously, they want the borders drawn to match their US preferences. Which is interesting, because once you start redrawing borders, then areas of Western Ukraine start to become of interest to say Poland, Hungary and perhaps a Baltic State or two?
Russia is currently redrawing Soviet Borders unilaterally, but one thing we cannot deny is. They told us IF NATO/US kept coming East, then at some point, this was going to happen.
The US sparked a Coup in Ukraine because when it came to a choice between the EU deal on offer, and Putin’s which included something the EU could never match. Quantities of cheap gas. The Russian leaning President, saw what would happen IF Ukraine didn’t accept the gas, so opted for Russia. This winter in the Ukraine we will discover why he made that choice, and how wise it was.
Is rejoining Russia actually the issue? They are a long way from the Russian frontier.
They are pretty close to where Russia would like its frontier to be.
So the UK/US/EU brainwashing of the woke has been a success in the West and will be as difficult to address. Well, at least until Net Zero causes grid failures, because once the Green Myth is broken, a lot of the Woke may start questioning why the morons that rule us couldn’t see ll the other things that will collapse along with it.
Kaliningrad will never be East Prussia again. They were all killed or fled.
Correct, including my Mother’s family, who had the good sense to go West while the going is good.
Many of the Moldavians (such as Maia Sandu and almost its entire current goverment) have already acquired Romanian citizenship – a formality for Moldovan citizens. From that point of view they already are “in the EU”.
In any case I don’t think it’s in EU’s interest to formally admit in the EU a poor corrupted country with a sizable russophone population (50%) and a frozen military conflict (Transnistria).
Come on Jim. You are saying that a lot of Modocans dislike the EU because it is a dysfunctional, authoritarian regime – and therefore look for an efficient democratic future coupled to Putin’s Russia? Are you sure you have double-checked you logic, here?
Countries like Britain, the U.S., Canada etc have seen the rewards of free-market democracies for hundreds of years. We have benefited from this to become the most prosperous, wealthy people in the history of the world. As a result, democracy is strongly embedded here.
That doesn’t appear to be the case with Moldova. It’s been a democracy for a little more than 20 years. If democracy has not conferred any economic benefits to a large segment of the population, it’s not illogical for them to cast their eyes towards an authoritarian regime. I’m not saying it’s a good thing. I’m saying it’s a reasonable response to a young, ineffective democratic regime.
I would also suggest that if the incompetent political and technocratic elite that dominates the west today fails to deliver economic benefits to its citizens, we could see political turmoil and dysfunction here as well. If young people suffer for too long, they too will cast their eyes toward political alternatives. Democracies in the west are still resilient today IMO, but this isn’t a given forever. It can change in a generation.
I think there’s an important distinction to be made here. Moldova is one of many countries that you might label a “democracy”. But they lack the strong cultural and legal underpinnings – principally rule of law, respect for property rights, properly functioning judicial system, “high trust” society which rejects and punishes corruption – that we are fortunate enough to enjoy. And which work to a far better degree (yes, still imperfect) in our countries. Democracy alone is not enough. Note also that there are already countries within the EU that don’t meet all the basic norms. And further careless and premature expansion will only lower the quality further.
And it’s precisely because Moldova doesn’t have and value these things that it’s vulnerable to corruption and harmful foreign influence (which is 80% Russian to 20% Western IMHO).
I take your point about the awful current Western elites. But these are not the major problem in Moldova. Second order at most.
Again, if you think the Moldovans like the Russians and want to be part of Russia, I suggest you meet some or go there. I’ve met enough Romanians to know what they think of the Russians (and it’s not positive). No one who borders Russia and was colonised in the Warsaw Pact wants them back.
I think you’re missing my point. I’m not suggesting Moldovans support authoritarian regimes, or have anything but deep mistrust of Russia. I have no idea really. If what you say is true, then there’s no fear of Moldova rejoining Russia.
What I’m skeptical of is the notion that Russian propaganda will convince Moldova to rejoin Russia. If they distrust Russia, as you say, no amount of Russian propaganda will change their mind.
I’m also suggesting that if democracy has failed to improve their living conditions over the last 20 years, then it is reasonable for Moldovans to develop negative perceptions of democracy, which could make them prone to support authoritarian leaders. I am not suggesting that this is actually happening.
The article, like others, doesn’t say why people would prefer to side with Russia rather than the EU. Is Russia offering investment? A good trade deal? Cheap gas? Or just general wickedness? 34 years since Communism not 20. . They broke away on 1991.
More likely coupled to Ukraine their Neighbour, who supported the break away Transnistria because it stopped Moldova having access to the Dniester and hence the Black Sea.
That is a story I do not know. Last I heard about Transdnistria, it was a Russian protectorate, not one supported by Ukraine. Could you tewll m more?
it may be financially feasible for westerners to employ Moldovans as their servants
The “wrong” people did better than “expected” in Moldova, so of course it must be down to “Russian interference”. The place may as well already be in the EU. 50.4 per cent to 49.6 per cent is an awful lot tighter than the 2016 referendum in Britain was, so where are the cries for a second referendum in Moldova? The No side had been in the lead until the last minute counting of 180,000 votes from Moldovans who were already living in the EU, and thus not in Moldova, 90 per cent of whom at least allegedly voted Yes. But we are expected to believe that only five per cent of the 300,000 Moldovans living in Russia voted at all.And yet we are also expected to believe that the size of the No vote, and the fact that Maia Sandu was going to have to face a runoff ballot for President, were due to “Russian interference”. They no longer have to lose for that to be the case. They just have to get less than 100 per cent of the vote. Their pre-planned programme of repression will then be put into effect. Now into its second century, Fascism has always been what was now called centrism, but with its back to the wall. Sandu has banned the display of the Saint George’s Ribbon, being ever-loyal instead to the Iron Guard, therefore to the NATO that spends a fortune depicting such phenomena as the good guys of the Eastern Front, and thus also to the EU.
I am noticing a pattern here:
This Halloween, I am dressing like the Russian!
I am no particular friend of the EU, but it does seem curious that there would be Moldovans who would prefer to “lean Eastwards” towards a gangster State occupied by a barbaric people, and led by a warmongering tyrant, rather “lean Westwards” towards the EU (who will after all give them money).
The EU is leaning to the right and the EU rulers don’t like it. German Europhiles are forever demanding the banning of the AfD try the Eugypius substack for the sheer fascism of the German so called Democratic parties when it comes to the AfD or any objection to the behaviour of said parties.
Then consider here is the UK, a man holding a placard and shouting admittedly offensive slogans has just died, possibly by suicide in a UK jail, the space he occupied being freed up by releasing convicted criminals.
Then we have Ukraine, dragging young men from bars and clubs to be ‘conscripted’ (we used to call them press-gangs a few centuries ago) to fight, when Russia isn’t doing that. Ukraine is under Martial Law such that their President remains in power despite his democratic mandate having expired. Russia isn’t under Marital law.
The Canadian Parliament gave a standing ovation to a Ukrainian ‘Patriot’ for his service to his country in WW2 – in the Waffen SS. Poland is locked in a dispute with Ukraine over the WW2 massacre of Poles by Ukrainian Nazi troops and threatens to veto any Ukraine entry into the EU over it.
Which begs the question – Who are the Nazis & bad guys, and who the good? Or aren’t there any?
The answer is simple enough. The Russians are the “bad guys” and the Ukrainians are the “good guys”. It is not too hard to work out. The Russians have been the “bad guys” for most of the last 500 years.
Neighbours are neighbours and North Western Europe is not a neighbour to Moldova. Not even a near neighbour. Sitting in Chisinau airport you see business flights to Israel, Georgia, and Turkey as common as those to Paris, Berlin and London. (There were once many flights to Russia but Moldova was forced to ban them under pressure from the EU and trade sanctions loomed if they didn’t comply*.) Through people and trade bonds are made
The EU’s centre of power is very remote from Moldova and the EU’s rulers very remote from North Western Europeans, let alone Eastern Europeans. Moldova’s near neighbours that are members of the EU are all currently sanctioned in one form or the other by the EU. Poland, Hungary and Romania all have standing threats to suspend development funding unless their governments deviate from democratic mandates and instead follow the diktaks of the Commission. What Moldovan wouldn’t be nervous about joining? It isn’t so obvious that small countries like Moldova should join and face similar external control and threats.
*We talk about Russian interference but seem blind to our own attempts to force Moldova into our sphere of influence.
The EU’s centre of power is pretty remote from most people, but that’s no reason to throw your lot in with the Russians!
In your opinion. Russia*s gas is a very tempting reason for throwing yourself in with Russia. Ask Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, France, Belgium, Spain and Portugal – ALL of whom at least up to this summer were importing Russian gas either via pipelines (including one across Ukraine) or LNG tankers.
Selling your soul to the Devil for access to cheap gas doesn’t seem too smart to me. It is likely to “blow up in your face” in more ways than one.
But is that the choice? Have they been invited to join a trade deal with Russia in return for cheap gas and freedom to grow wine and grain without joining fortress Europe? Throwing around the words Russia, Putin, the Kremlin, isn’t very helpful. Moldova signed a TAA with the EU about 14 years ago.Has anyone read it?
Great post.
“criminal groups, working together with foreign forces hostile to our national interests, have attacked our country with tens of millions of euros, lies and propaganda, using the most disgraceful means to keep our citizens and our nation trapped in uncertainty and instability.”
Isn’t this the kind of statement normally put out by totalitarian leaders?
Poor Moldova. Anxious not to lose Transnistria, they failed to join Romania in 1992-3. Ukraine swiped their access to the Black Sea, as well as Bulgaria’s chunk of the delta, which is why they are sitting on the Danube ports and delta. Moldova must be torn between wanting the protection and funds of the EU, and the spectacle of losing control of their demography ( the ECJ judgment spreading illegals around, contrary to references to subsidiarity in the Treaties).The EU’s treatment of several Eastern European members might have worried them.