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November 1, 2024 - 1:00pm
Maybe it is just a coincidence, but it appears as if some diplomacy is breaking out between Russia and Ukraine in the final stretch before the US presidential election. The two warring countries are reportedly in the early stages of negotiations aimed at stopping air and drone strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure.
This initiative is taking place amid ongoing hostilities that have significantly damaged Ukraine’s energy sector. Russia’s attacks have had a devastating effect on Ukraine’s heating and electricity grid — a serious concern, considering that this year’s winter could be significantly colder than those of previous years due to the arrival of La Niña, a cyclical cooling of the Pacific that affects temperatures in Europe.
Since the war’s inception, Ukraine has lost more than 9 GW of electricity-generating capacity, further straining an already beleaguered energy system. Consequently, international support — especially from the EU — has been instrumental in reconstruction efforts. In 2024 alone, the EU has pledged €1.4 billion to enhance the resilience of Ukraine’s energy grid. One of the most severe aerial offensives occurred on 26 August this year when Russia launched over 200 missiles and drones targeting crucial energy sites across Ukraine.
In addition to grinding warfare on the front lines, Moscow has been targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the knowledge that a cold winter without electricity and heating could be lethal for thousands of Ukrainians. This could also trigger a new wave of refugees, which will threaten to destabilise Europe further. This raises an important question: why would Russia suddenly wish to enter into negotiations about constraining these types of attacks?
The answer is twofold. First, the results of the Brics meeting in Kazan were underwhelming for Russia. Instead of a blueprint for a new world order, the main outcome was to agree on more meetings where further steps will be discussed. Although certainly a PR win for Vladimir Putin, nothing of substance was gained, and one could even argue that the absence of leaders from Brazil (President Lula cited a head injury for missing the trip) and Saudi Arabia indicates that with US elections looming, some member states are beginning to distance themselves from the Brics project.
It remains unclear who will be the next US president, but it is becoming increasingly apparent that major global players are beginning to hedge their bets. They understand that the possible outcomes are either a continuation of Joe Biden’s policies or a return to Donald Trump’s unpredictable “peace through strength” approach, both of which create different policy options. Putin must anticipate that Trump has made ending the war in Ukraine a priority, and both men must at least appear to have “won”. This could explain why Moscow is beginning to lay some potential groundwork for future negotiations, such as an agreement on ceasing strikes on critical infrastructure.
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SubscribeI think the Biden/Harris strategy can be summed up in one word: appeasement.
I think the strategy is to keep the old war wheels turning.
I agree it can be summed up in one word, but I’d argue that word is “failure”.
Tyler, van Reenen and Gassmann have told the entire story in three short lines!
Appeasing the MIC as they pay the bills, while trying to keep the consequences of that manageable is not something to be sniffed at.
If Trump does ramp support for Ukraine to the point Russia is forced to negotiate – and leave with nothing – the world will rejoice and all reasonable people will reconsider their view of him if it was previously negative.
The chances of Putin and Trump negotiating and Putin walking away with nothing, are zero.
What could Washington offer now that would interest the Russian President, after all he’s seen?
“Nothing substantial”…except major countries turned up and effectively put up two fingers to the USA and the sanctions.
And where do these reports originate? Could it possibly be “the West” trying to convince others Russia is losing and needs to negotiate?
Same MO as always – make up a result the other side is supposed to have wanted, then present the lack of “success” in achieving that result as a failure.
He isn’t wrong though.
I would argue the Dems are desperate for some kind of foreign policy victory here. Imagine if Trump wins and quickly negotiates a peace deal with Putin. It would be the most humiliating foreign policy failure for the Dem party in decades. The credibility of the entire military-industrial complex would be destroyed.
I doubt that the MIC would care…just go on to the next war.
The only deal that would humiliate the Dems would be one in which Putin withdrew to the pre-2014 border, recognized Ukranian sovereignty, turned himself over to the ICC and paid reparations, putting the idea that Putin has something on Trump to bed. I hope that happens! A quick peace deal acceptable to both Kviv and Moscow based on withdrawal of American backing would not be one Zelensky could accept and continue in power (or avoid a coup or assassination), and if Putin made significant concessions after losing 500K men, he would be safer in the Hague.
Putin’s not going to The Hague anymore that American warlords have ever been. Big countries are exempt and it appears even Bibi may escape.
While the Neocons haven’t achieved their ultimate objective, breaking up the Russian Federation into bite sized bits, they have managed to create a certain barrier between Russia and Europe. Over the last hundred odd years , the US has intervened several times to prevent Europe becoming a serious rival and they’ll do so again as long as they can. It’s hard to imagine any US government winding down the war in Europe in a way that weakens that division.
Trump has made clear that he wants the killing to end. For Putin to be on board with negotiations puts a damper on the ongoing claims that he wants to rule Ukraine and rebuild the Soviet empire.
Diplomacy now? No nato war. Free trade.
As with Reagan and the Iranian act of war in 1980, Russia would likely act in its own best interests if Trump is allowed to win this election.
Another factor behind the negotiations may be Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure. Russian air defenses have proven leaky, and Ukraine has already had some success at hitting energy targets inside Russia. No reason why Ukraine wouldn’t step up those attacks as the cold starts to bite.
One also cannot forget that Ukraine’s agreement for transit of Russian gas expires at year end since Ukraine refused to renew it. This move to negotiate may relate to that. Russia has not found an alternative to the Ukraine pipeline, and there are only two months left to find one or lose a key source of revenue.
As to thinking ahead to a Trump presidency, I think Russia is betting on a Kamala Harris victory. I know I am. The Democrats have perfected their machine politics over the last few elections. That machine is powerful, and Kamala Harris is a master of machine politics. She has no skill at governing, but look at where she has risen in spite of that. To vice president, and in January, I think, to president.
That saddens me. We have not seen the likes of Donald Trump before, and we will not see them again. His negotiation skills were unmatched. JD Vance, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley. They are ideologues not practical people.
And the Democrats are laughable at this. Barack Obama. Joe Biden. Kamala Harris. Gavin Newsom. Gretchen Whitmer. They are skilled politicians, certainly. But at the art of the deal, they are pikers.
Donald Trump, I am sorry to see you go.
It ain’t over until it’s over.
That’s true — we won’t know the American election results for a while, possibly not even on Tuesday night. But we are seeing the results of early voting, and it looks like the Democrats are playing their usual strong ground game while the Republicans are playing their usual weak one. The Senate and House look to be trending Democratic too, based on the same indicators.
What the Democrats do with their machine politics is not illegal but it ought to be. It’s like the lawfare they waged on Donald Trump. A slap in the face of democracy that the law allows but no moral person should stand for.
No problem about their ground game.
The remaining pipeline deal is indeed a major factor all round. It’s essential for gas users and to keep a lid on European energy prices. Moscow and Kiev both make money out of it. The current deal was the first and only part of Zelensky’s 2019 peace mandate he delivered on and the deal was done relatively quickly. The Americans would be happy to see it cut off but they know the consequences could weaken their political influence in Europe.
I keep telling people that if Kazakhstan joins BRICS, they can then call it BRICKS, an extremely important development! But no one is listening to me (weepy face) ….
What Mr. Schoellhammer misses is that short of precipitating WW III, there is precious little the US (and certainly not Europe) can do to “force” Russia to negotiate. The US and Europe have shot their wad, both militarily and economically. Militarily, they never had much to give, now they’ve emptied their arsenals, the well is dry. They can print more money, but no amount of money will replace soldiers, training, or weapons.
Russia went into this war keen to negotiate, and by March 2022, they had a deal, favourable to Ukraine. But US/UK/NATO/EU scuppered the deal, convinced that their economic “shock and awe” would “turn the Rouble into rubble”. It didn’t (to no small surprise to both Putin and Nabiullina, the Westernised head of the Russian Central Bank).
The US has nothing to offer. “Sanctions relief” is an empty promise. The US again and again have signed supposedly ironclad promises of sanction relief, only to simply renege for political convenience. US President and political sage Dubbya Bush had something to say about “fool me once”.
The diplomatic pressure on Russia comes not from the paper tigers in Europe and the US, it comes from the Global South, from Russia’s friends. That is the audience Russia needs to, and wants to, satisfy.
In this respect, Russia can count on a reliable ally: The President of Ukraine. According to his own Ukase, Ukraine cannot negotiate with Russia. Which is great for the Russian government. Russian promises to negotiate are cheap talk, since Ukraine has said it won’t ever negotiate, and has repeatedly proven the point. So Russia can – once again – turn to its friends and say: “See? We tried. But we have no-one to talk to.”
And since the media in the Global South are not (no longer) controlled by us, unlike our own, they will look at the facts and agree.
That’s all good except the last bit is contradicted by what you wrote before. It’s never been Russia that wanted or needs this war.
Speculation built on speculation here. I’m not sure what to make if it.