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America's political marriage divide is growing

Marital status has increasingly become an indicator of conservative beliefs. Credit: Getty

November 1, 2024 - 6:30pm

Marital status has become a proxy for political beliefs, cutting across other factors in party affiliation including age, gender and class.

Republicans are more likely than Democrats to be married, at 65% compared to 50%, according to a new research brief from the Institute for Family Studies. The trend has grown stronger since 2000, when there was roughly only a 10-percentage-point gap, despite a decline in marriage for members of both parties. Further, the majority of married adults report being “very happily” married, but Republicans have an 11-point advantage, at 65% compared to 54%.

In this year’s election, one of the key stories has been the gender-based polarisation of voters, with young women shifting significantly to the Left and young men to the Right. The abortion issue has played into this dynamic. The new analysis, however, demonstrates that this only applies to unmarried women, and 63% of married women aged 25-44 are Republicans.

In response, Democrats are trying to win over married women. One new Kamala Harris ad, voiced by actress Julia Roberts, suggested that married women may need to hide their votes from their husbands, drawing on the narrative that the election is largely a contest between men and women. “In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose,” the ad says of the ballot box, “no one will ever know… Vote Harriz-Walz.” But this research undercuts that idea, revealing that a majority of married women are Republicans.

Married men under 45 are also more likely to be Republican than Democrat, at 55% compared to 42%. Much like the partisan gender gap, the partisan marriage gap is stronger for young Americans, particularly for those with university degrees.

The trend holds true when broken down by social class. Poor and working-class adults have seen a significant decline in marriage rates, but within this group the marriage rate is more than 10 points higher for Republicans in every age category.

The study’s authors attribute the partisan marriage gap to Left-wing social values among Democrats. Because Democrats place less value on marriage, monogamy and fidelity, they get married less, they argue. At the same time, the party’s embrace of extended school closures during Covid-19 and lax policing rules proved off-putting to “family-minded” people, the authors write. “Most progressives today do not think that ‘children are better off if they have two married parents,’ even though the science points clearly in the other direction,” they claim, citing research which concluded that social, emotional and safety outcomes are better for children of married parents.

Gallup analysis from July found that a partisan gap in marriage rates opened up in the Eighties, as marriage became less common within both parties, but the trend was about twice as pronounced for Democrats. The lifetime marriage rate for Republicans fell from 90% in 1965 to 67% today, whereas the Democratic marriage rate fell from 90% to 49%.

“For a long time, we thought the rise of singles in America would give Democrats a big demographic advantage in the presidential election,” Brad Wilcox, IFS fellow and University of Virginia professor, told UnHerd. “But there is a real chance we will see a South Korea-style election next week where a clear majority of married Americans vote Republican and a large minority of single men who feel alienated from the Democratic Party vote for Trump.”


is UnHerd’s US correspondent.

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El Uro
El Uro
3 hours ago

The briefest conclusion from this essay is that the progressives are undoubtedly degenerates.

Last edited 3 hours ago by El Uro
Champagne Socialist
Champagne Socialist
2 hours ago
Reply to  El Uro

The briefest conclusion from your comment is that you are undoubtedly a complete moron.

El Uro
El Uro
26 minutes ago

Voice from the basement 🙂

Last edited 26 minutes ago by El Uro
Billy Bob
Billy Bob
3 hours ago

This is hardly a revelation is it. Older people are more slightly likely to be married than younger ones, and slightly more likely to be more conservative.

Rory Cullen
Rory Cullen
53 minutes ago
Reply to  Billy Bob

overall that’s definitely true, but it’s interesting that 63% of married women 25-44 (young and middle-aged, not old people) voted republican so it appears marital status does have a big effect for younger women.

Champagne Socialist
Champagne Socialist
1 hour ago

Does this include twice divorced conmen for Queens who cheat on their 3rd wife with a pornstar while she’s at home with their infant son?
Just askin’!

Rory Cullen
Rory Cullen
57 minutes ago

Married people cheating on their spouses has nothing to do with political affiliation, I’m sure you don’t need reminding of how much Jackie Kennedy had to put up with her husbands adulterous shenanigans to avoid getting divorced.

Champagne Socialist
Champagne Socialist
28 minutes ago
Reply to  Rory Cullen

Unless I am very much mistaken – and that’s unlikely – I don’t think JFK is on the ballot this year.
Perhaps you have other information?

El Uro
El Uro
19 minutes ago

It is difficult for a man, as well as any male, even of strictly monogamous species, to resist when a female wants him.
.
As I understand it, you have never been in a situation like this. For obvious reasons.

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
2 hours ago

Republican states have a higher divorce rate than Democratic states, and that’s been true for a longtime. I’ll give you an example from my mother’s side of the family. My parents were Democrats, who had five Democratic children and zero divorces. My mother’s two sisters and brother were Republicans with Republican children—a total of nine. Every one of those kids had at least one divorce. I should add that all five of us kids are college educated, and none of my cousins went to college. Just a small example, but it’s telling.

Billy Bob
Billy Bob
24 minutes ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

Is that because they get married younger? I’ve a mate from the States who was married 3 times before he was 30 (he’s now on his 4th), and he tells me most of his mates growing up were married by their early 20’s.
By comparison only 1 of my mates in England were married before they were 30, and all the marriages have lasted so far