We don't want American burgers. Win McNamee/Getty Images

At first light I walked our Belted Galloway cows down from the hill, through the avenue of oak trees that shadow the lane, to the valley bottom. The first ones will start calving next week, and I want them to be near the farmhouse where we can supervise them. This birthing is timed carefully to coincide with the spring flush of grass and herbs that the cows will need to produce milk for their calves.
My family has worked in farming for 600 years or more, since before Columbus “discovered” America. So imagine my reaction when I saw Donald Trump’s commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, ranting on Fox News about European beef: “I mean, [the] European Union won’t take chicken from America. They won’t take lobsters from America. They hate our beef because our beef is beautiful and theirs is weak.”
Peter Navarro, Trump’s trade advisor (and allegedly the “guru” behind his trade wars), was also venting on TV about “non-tariff barriers”, such as food safety standards, which keep American food products out of Europe and the UK. Many common American agricultural practices, including washing raw chicken in chlorine, feeding growth hormones to cattle, or growing GM crops, are banned in Britain and the EU, making it difficult for these countries to import US produce. And the Americans aren’t happy about this.
With a UK-US trade deal expected any day now, British farmers are on tenterhooks. Navarro is suggesting that any trade deal would require the UK to accept America’s “chlorinated chicken” and beef produced with hormones. And Labour’s inner circle appears to be preparing the ground to sign: last week, Chancellor Rachel Reeves shockingly called a “Buy British” campaign “insular” and “narrow-minded”. Meanwhile, Business Minister Jonathan Reynolds has promised that Britain’s food safety standards will not be relaxed as part of a deal — even in return for a reduction in tariffs. But this is a problematic pledge because it isn’t our food safety standards that are the issue: this is about whether we enforce our standards on imported American food stuffs.
The trouble is that, if we allow American food into Britain that has been produced with banned pesticides, or in unhygienic factory farms, or from pigs in farrowing crates, then we have to let British farmers use those same methods to compete on price, or else we lose our farms because of the unfair competition. An unfavourable deal could see British farming become a “race to the bottom” to compete on price with the American Midwest.
That said, there’s no denying an American trade deal could cheer up our ailing economy. Trade between the UK and US is fairly well balanced and is worth about £315 billion, supporting 2.5 million jobs. And America is Britain’s single largest trading partner, albeit way smaller than the combined EU27 as a market.
But while I’ve read the economic textbooks, and I understand the theory behind free trade, I also know that the real world is rarely as simple as a textbook. There are many sensible, real-world reasons why Britain doesn’t have free trade in some vital products and services. If we want to protect domestic car or steel production, or the producers of military hardware for national defence, for instance, then we often quite rightly find ways to shield them from market forces. We don’t want to be dependent on foreign countries for goods that are vital to the national interest.
When it comes to British agriculture, there are equally good reasons to limit free trade — especially with America. For a cautionary tale, just look at Mexico. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) was ostensibly a free-trade agreement, but its impact on Mexico has been devastating.
Over the past decade, Mexico has been working to reduce the use of genetically modified/biotech corn and glyphosate — the ingredient in Monsanto’s weed-killing product, Roundup. This was partly to protect public health, since thousands of lawsuits have been lodged against the makers of Roundup claiming it causes cancer. And it was partly to protect the environment. Mexico erected barriers to American GM/biotech crop imports, and began to regulate the use of glyphosate in its farming systems.
The companies affected, Bayer-Monsanto, and Mexico’s National Agricultural Council (CNA), filed in 2021 for an injunction in Mexican courts to stop the regulations. Then, in 2023, the US government escalated the situation by pressuring Mexico to drop the domestic regulations. By imposing domestic standards on American imports, the US argued, Mexico had formed a “barrier to trade” and therefore violated the free-trade deal. In short, the Americans have used the deal and trade legislation to strong-arm Mexico into diluting its agricultural standards.
And herein lies a warning to the UK. For Americans, “free trade” now means they have the right to sell us goods produced in ways we may deem unsafe, and in ways we may even have banned domestically, and if we try to resist, they will come after us, calling this “non-tariff cheating”. They could demand, in time, that we reshape our domestic laws and regulations on the environment and public health, or else allow them to flagrantly flout the same regulations.
There are, of course, a bunch of good folks saying that we have nothing to worry about, because “we don’t have to buy American chicken or beef in the supermarket”, and that this is all an issue of “consumer choice”. But you really shouldn’t believe this.
Free-market evangelists in the Trump administration and elsewhere believe that even “nutrition labelling” is an illegal “barrier to trade”. There is an ongoing dispute between America and the EU about this very issue. The product labels aren’t going to make it clear that you are eating American chlorinated chicken or hormone beef, or GM crops, or products grown with UK-banned pesticides, or dyed with UK-banned colourings that might make your kids hyper.
They don’t want you, the consumer, to be able to make that informed decision, just as they don’t want American consumers to know what they are eating. Informed consumer choice becomes effectively impossible — unless you have the time, money, and education to recognise and buy the good stuff. This line of argument also ignores the fact that lots of this produce will vanish into the food chain as ingredients.
Before we really get into it, though, it’s worth saying that most American food is fairly safe, and some American farmers (especially those behind regenerative agriculture efforts) are really good at what they do. But there are aspects of the mainstream American food system that are substantially different to our own, and those differences affect both food quality and safety.
Let’s start with the chickens. The issue isn’t the chlorine, but the fact that the chemical has to be used in the first place because American farms and food production facilities are bigger, faster, and therefore dirtier than those in Britain and the EU. That means more chickens squeezed in industrial-sized sheds, and faster factory-processing lines for killing and cutting up birds. The faster the factory processing line is, the more money the facility makes. Yet it also means the meat is more likely to carry disease. American chicken needs to be chlorine or acid-washed at the end of the production chain to kill the bacteria resulting from the process — otherwise that bacteria will go on to make humans sick.
And Americans do fall sick more often because of their government’s laxer food rules. According to the charity Sustain, more than 14% of Americans get sick at least once a year from food poisoning — that’s roughly 10 times the comparable figure for the UK. The rates of food-borne illnesses resulting in death are also much higher in the US, where around 380 people die each year from foodborne salmonella. The Food Standards Agency has declared that it’s now safe to eat a soft-boiled egg in Britain (if it’s British Lion-marked), while the US Food and Drug Administration recommends hard-boiling eggs only in America due to salmonella fears. Why would we choose to put British children in greater danger of food poisoning by importing American produce?
Another vital issue is the five-fold greater usage of antibiotics in US agriculture. British farmers are banned from using antibiotics in feed as American farmers often do. Why? Because it is estimated that, by 2050, 10 million extra people will die annually from drug-resistant superbugs. It is feared that some of these superbugs will emerge from dirty, moist, and warm industrial farm sheds where antibiotics are being used to promote animal growth.
Most British people don’t want to eat worse quality food just to please the Americans. And yet the danger is that an American “free trade” deal would undermine Britain’s ability to set its own safe and sustainable domestic food standards, which take into account both public health and the environment. This would represent nothing less than a capitulation of our food sovereignty.
The irony is that, once upon a time, Brexiteers were agitated by the EU dictating trading terms to us — enforcing rules regarding the shape of bananas and so on. But what few seemed to understand was that American “free trade” policies work in a similar way, dictating how and what you can do domestically, both in terms of buying and selling, but also, curiously, how you do things in your own country. It should be clear to everyone that when the Americans talk about “free trade”, they mean that we will trade on their terms, with their standards as a guide.
If our government holds to our historic red lines, protecting Britain, then the Trump administration won’t sign the deal. If we do give up on our red lines, then we will have a trade deal but will have done irreversible damage to our country.
I love many things about America. I respect the best of what that country and its people can do. But they can go to hell if they want to exploit and bully us. Starmer should grow a pair, and hold firm to our red lines, and, if necessary, send the American negotiators packing. But I’ll wager he doesn’t do that. I reckon he’ll fold and sign the deal. There is no evidence so far that he understands or cares a hoot for British food, farming or the environment. I hope I’m wrong, but I think my farm, my beautiful cows, and this green and pleasant land are about to be sold down the river.
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeWell… a Ukrainian Think Tank expert on Russian Military…..giving the story on a Ukrainian War……Well, we know Youtube will object with nothing he has said.
When asked if Ukraine takes the Donbas will they then be able to take Crimea – he replied:
‘That would be a Brilliant problem to have, I hope we get there’.
Several other times he used the collective ‘We‘ when talking of Ukraine, and was very much talking of this as being his war too. To me I saw this come out in the entire position of his talk.
Personally I say get Colonel Douglas MacGregor to give the flip side story – it is Much more compelling, but is anti war (As I have been from the start because it is an evil war and Biden/Boris had no business in turning it into WWIII) I would tell people interested in other sides to watch ‘Redacted News’ on Rumble – this is their main story always, Redacted are a weird thing, and quite problematic, and really do not know all that much – but still – they give the other side. The side which says feeding this war is evil and Peace at ALL costs is the only answer.
Kofman told a big fib as well, one which I think should be the big story, but is not allowed to be fully talked of. Kofman said there can be no treaty as Russia will not offer a viable Deal. Come on you cannot say that… First Biden forbade a deal and sent his mini-me there twice when a deal was possible – to squash it.
I have heard Putin give his deal, Donbas independent and assure Ukraine will not be part of the EU, nor NATO, and Crimea is Russian. Sounds like a deal 1000000000 X better than this evil war – which is crashing the global economy, is bringing on a global famine, and will contribute to billions going from poverty to Abject Poverty as the problems ripple out around the world stronger. Not to mention 10,000,000, ten million, Ukrainians have fled to Europe and Russia, and 250,000 Ukrainians dead of disabled. And EU is deindustilazing and going bankrupt, as is UK over it. The remaining population In Ukraine is 19,000,000, not near enough to keep fighting, or to rebuild Ukraine, according to MacGreggor –
AND here is the thing – when it comes time to rebuild – no one will pay for it – those outside will likely not come back if they find something viable – more will leave the wreckage. It reminds me of the Punic Wars where Rome tore down Carthage and all its empire stone by stone, killed all the people, and salted the lands…. Only is is not Russia and Ukraine doing it – but Biden, Boris, and Zalenski.
I continue on another post, Part II
Er, this article is about assessing where this war is going, not trying to get a “gotcha.”
Quite a few analysts on the Allied side in WW2 also used “we” when they predicted an allied victory.
Turned out they were right.
Kofman is an analyst. One of the few who predicted Putin would invade. You are certainly welcome to consult the “caring anti-war” side who got things wrong, instead of the people who got things right about Ukraine.
But don’t claim they are more reliable than Kofman.
Does Sweden and Finland applying to join NATO not tell you something?
It makes me shudder!
NATO controls the Baltic completely.
Another gift of Putin’s genius.
NATO controls the Baltic completely.
Another gift of Putin’s genius.
It makes me shudder!
Spot on analysis. As you mention Redacted or McGreggor provide a far better overview than this guy. Also very good economic analysis by a chap called Mark Sleboda describing this as a war between capital and commodities.
Oh, it is you again playing Russian propaganda songs on your one string balalajka ….
No serious experts on Western side ever predicted quick and painless victory.
Many, quite rightly, said that there was a window last summer and early autumn when giving Ukraine more help would result in more territory recovered from invaders.
Obviously due to usual suspects like Germany and France it never happened.
I never heard from anyone supporting Russian position, why Russian success in Ukraine would be beneficial to the West?
Defeat of Russian imperialism is definitely in West interest.
Even taking much narrower and cynical perspective, what is not to like about Ukraine destroying Russian military assets?
If they want to fight then help them to do it.
It is cheaper and less painfull to let them do it than asking Baltic States and Poland to do it.
Unless you think that Russia should just carry out further looting, rapes and genocide?
Er, this article is about assessing where this war is going, not trying to get a “gotcha.”
Quite a few analysts on the Allied side in WW2 also used “we” when they predicted an allied victory.
Turned out they were right.
Kofman is an analyst. One of the few who predicted Putin would invade. You are certainly welcome to consult the “caring anti-war” side who got things wrong, instead of the people who got things right about Ukraine.
But don’t claim they are more reliable than Kofman.
Does Sweden and Finland applying to join NATO not tell you something?
Spot on analysis. As you mention Redacted or McGreggor provide a far better overview than this guy. Also very good economic analysis by a chap called Mark Sleboda describing this as a war between capital and commodities.
Oh, it is you again playing Russian propaganda songs on your one string balalajka ….
No serious experts on Western side ever predicted quick and painless victory.
Many, quite rightly, said that there was a window last summer and early autumn when giving Ukraine more help would result in more territory recovered from invaders.
Obviously due to usual suspects like Germany and France it never happened.
I never heard from anyone supporting Russian position, why Russian success in Ukraine would be beneficial to the West?
Defeat of Russian imperialism is definitely in West interest.
Even taking much narrower and cynical perspective, what is not to like about Ukraine destroying Russian military assets?
If they want to fight then help them to do it.
It is cheaper and less painfull to let them do it than asking Baltic States and Poland to do it.
Unless you think that Russia should just carry out further looting, rapes and genocide?
Well… a Ukrainian Think Tank expert on Russian Military…..giving the story on a Ukrainian War……Well, we know Youtube will object with nothing he has said.
When asked if Ukraine takes the Donbas will they then be able to take Crimea – he replied:
‘That would be a Brilliant problem to have, I hope we get there’.
Several other times he used the collective ‘We‘ when talking of Ukraine, and was very much talking of this as being his war too. To me I saw this come out in the entire position of his talk.
Personally I say get Colonel Douglas MacGregor to give the flip side story – it is Much more compelling, but is anti war (As I have been from the start because it is an evil war and Biden/Boris had no business in turning it into WWIII) I would tell people interested in other sides to watch ‘Redacted News’ on Rumble – this is their main story always, Redacted are a weird thing, and quite problematic, and really do not know all that much – but still – they give the other side. The side which says feeding this war is evil and Peace at ALL costs is the only answer.
Kofman told a big fib as well, one which I think should be the big story, but is not allowed to be fully talked of. Kofman said there can be no treaty as Russia will not offer a viable Deal. Come on you cannot say that… First Biden forbade a deal and sent his mini-me there twice when a deal was possible – to squash it.
I have heard Putin give his deal, Donbas independent and assure Ukraine will not be part of the EU, nor NATO, and Crimea is Russian. Sounds like a deal 1000000000 X better than this evil war – which is crashing the global economy, is bringing on a global famine, and will contribute to billions going from poverty to Abject Poverty as the problems ripple out around the world stronger. Not to mention 10,000,000, ten million, Ukrainians have fled to Europe and Russia, and 250,000 Ukrainians dead of disabled. And EU is deindustilazing and going bankrupt, as is UK over it. The remaining population In Ukraine is 19,000,000, not near enough to keep fighting, or to rebuild Ukraine, according to MacGreggor –
AND here is the thing – when it comes time to rebuild – no one will pay for it – those outside will likely not come back if they find something viable – more will leave the wreckage. It reminds me of the Punic Wars where Rome tore down Carthage and all its empire stone by stone, killed all the people, and salted the lands…. Only is is not Russia and Ukraine doing it – but Biden, Boris, and Zalenski.
I continue on another post, Part II
Great interview by one of the few analysts who predicted this war.
But I can’t see Russia attaining any further gains in this war unless Putin begins to draft his “hidden reserves” in the city. There simply aren’t that many rural guys who need to steal toilets as war booty.
I just read a good article arguing that the much feared Russian offensive of the “mobiks” has actually been going on for weeks. It’s just that Russia can’t get enough supplies to an one part of the front, so they have to attack in widely separated areas.
https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-3-february-2023-56183abaab20
Stalin would have put 5 million men in the trenches by now. He would already have expended at least a million lives.
Unless “Vova” does the same, he’s going to lose.
Great interview by one of the few analysts who predicted this war.
But I can’t see Russia attaining any further gains in this war unless Putin begins to draft his “hidden reserves” in the city. There simply aren’t that many rural guys who need to steal toilets as war booty.
I just read a good article arguing that the much feared Russian offensive of the “mobiks” has actually been going on for weeks. It’s just that Russia can’t get enough supplies to an one part of the front, so they have to attack in widely separated areas.
https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-3-february-2023-56183abaab20
Stalin would have put 5 million men in the trenches by now. He would already have expended at least a million lives.
Unless “Vova” does the same, he’s going to lose.
Very interesting analyst (if a little hard to hear – it may be accent or mic issues). Good questions from Freddie.
Very interesting analyst (if a little hard to hear – it may be accent or mic issues). Good questions from Freddie.
To clarify on Crimea. I suspect what the analyst is hinting at is a Ukrainian strategy on Crimea that mirrors, on a larger scale, what they did in Kherson. They did not fight their way into Kherson. They cut it off from supply and therefore made the Russian military presence there untenable.
Ukraine will attempt to drive down from Zaporizhiya to Melitopol. That is a realistic objective. If they succeed at this and, as soon as the Rooskies finish repairing the Kerch Bridge, they blow it up again(!), Crimea will be completely cut off from resupply. (Check the map.) The Ukrainians will not literally starve the Crimean populace, but they will starve the Russian army there, and thence the Russians may have to reach a compromise re status.
First they have to get to Melitopol. As Kofman always caveats, that’s contingent on so many factors that we can’t predict which way it will go. But agreed, they will probably try.
First they have to get to Melitopol. As Kofman always caveats, that’s contingent on so many factors that we can’t predict which way it will go. But agreed, they will probably try.
To clarify on Crimea. I suspect what the analyst is hinting at is a Ukrainian strategy on Crimea that mirrors, on a larger scale, what they did in Kherson. They did not fight their way into Kherson. They cut it off from supply and therefore made the Russian military presence there untenable.
Ukraine will attempt to drive down from Zaporizhiya to Melitopol. That is a realistic objective. If they succeed at this and, as soon as the Rooskies finish repairing the Kerch Bridge, they blow it up again(!), Crimea will be completely cut off from resupply. (Check the map.) The Ukrainians will not literally starve the Crimean populace, but they will starve the Russian army there, and thence the Russians may have to reach a compromise re status.
Excellent analysis.
Excellent analysis.
OK – I would have asked this guy a very different set of questions.
1) What is the Point of this war? Why is Putin doing it, why is Zalenski having Ukraine destroying its self and its people and the world to avoid a treaty – one they may not like, but better than death and destruction. In other words – why is Biden/Boris doing this?
2) Is this an intentional Stale Mate? It would seem so. There are many reasons to think this stalemate is a desired outcome so far. Who blew up the Pipeline, and why is Germany Industry dismantling and moving to USA for cheap and reliable energy? What about the 26 fertilizer manufacturing plants in Europe shut down because no gas as feed-stock? (Evin the fertilizer plant in New Zealand shut – crazy stuff is afoot – Russia and Ukraine are the worlds biggest fertilizer suppliers – not now) Why is USA supplying expensive gas – and Qtar more so, to Europe LNG – way more than just Russian gas through a pipeline – is it worth wrecking the European economy over which flag flies over Donbas? Or is it something else??
3) How much $ to rebuild? What will Ukraine be once re-built? In this day of collapsing demographics, will Ukrainians stay 40,000,000 forty Million? or end up 25,000,000? They have the worst demographics in the region already. Who will pay the $ One Trillion $$ to rebuild? I know Blackrock and Blackwater are there like pigs looking for a trough.
4) as 7% of European gas goes through Azerbaijan, and the war with Armenia is looking scary, and you know Erdogan is going to get up to stuff – all the pipelines go through Turkey – Is there another Black Swan circling – Has this war created a situation where there is NO buffering in the system so a Black Swan Event will tip us all into global Depression? In other words can the world tolerate this destabilization at this precarious time (post covid insanity) Is this war a lot like Serbia and WWI?
5) what is so bad about a treaty – that Donbas become independent? India did it, tons of countries did it. Why is Peace not the FIRST thing on Every mind? The world is walking a knife edge – this war is insane, It is destroying the global economy and destabilizing everything. Is it worth wrecking the world over Donbas staying Ukrainian and that they can join NATO?
6) What if Biden gives F-16s and long range bombs, and some advisors on the ground so Putin blows up some Atlantic undersea cables and a couple Super Tankers get blown up in the Straits of Malacca and the entire global economy stops completely? You talk of battlefield nukes – lots worse than that can happen – just with simple explosives – Why drive the bear into a corner and then just keep poking him? Is this evil war worth destroying the world? Billions could die if the supply and economy breaks – and this could do it.
‘Or is it something else??’
Have you read about the ‘multi polar’ world? America is shifting its supply chains away from the east it seems, I think we are looking at a breaking of the existing globalised world order that was dominated by America, into regional power blocs maybe. For many reasons, America and the East not getting on, supply chain crisis from covid etc. If you search for global trends report 2040, it discusses the geopolitical situations likely by 2040, one is ‘separate silos’.
I agree the situation is increasingly complex, there seems to be a fair few proxy wars going on at the moment all over the place, like you say many black swans a circling. Nukes are not the main worry either, I agree, it’s the supply chain chaos, sanctions on energy, fertiliser shortage etc that perhaps should be worrying about more. Especially if the US and China end up fighting over Taiwan. I do think maybe it would be wise to take a step back at this point and decide whether breaking all this up is worth the consequences. Maybe russia and China are intent on breaking the old order now anyway?
Invading a sovereign country twice pretty much proves someone doesn’t care about the int’l order.
Probably never did.
calling a US puppet a ‘sovereign country’ is very nice, but still an exaggeration.
Was it a “puppet” before, or only after 2014?
And those puppets seem to fight a lot harder than the Russians.
So perhaps Russia is even less of a ‘sovereign country’?
Was it a “puppet” before, or only after 2014?
And those puppets seem to fight a lot harder than the Russians.
So perhaps Russia is even less of a ‘sovereign country’?
calling a US puppet a ‘sovereign country’ is very nice, but still an exaggeration.
You should highlight (5) of Elliot Bjorn;s submission. It is the only logical way forward, benefiting every nation – including Ukraine, which is being destroyed for largely political and economic advantage as stated in (2).
Perhaps, I’m not sure as it being the only logical way forward. While the peace proposal is a good one, logical and I think well worth considering, we also have consider the other side that if China and Russia are working together to break with the west, they aren’t likely to be too kind about it. A major factor to consider is whether the east west break is being driven by America, or by Russia and China or all involved now. Another is what are their intentions in doing so. What is their vision of a future world order? There’s a lot to think about if you see what I mean before we say that’s the only way forward. There’s a lot going on. I think it’s worth seriously considering peace, but we also have to accept it may not be our choice, it may not be an option now. It depends on Russia and Chinas attitude as much as it does ours.
Because it is blatant lie which Russian stooges on here keep repeating.
There was Ukrainian independence referendum in 1991 and Donbass and Luhansk voted over 80% to be part of Ukraine.
Even Crimea voted 54% for it.
Idea that surrendering to Russia would benefit Ukraine is just a sick joke.
People argue the same when appeasing Hitler.
Please tell us how well it worked out?
Please tell us as well why successful aggressor like Putin would stop there?
Historical precedence shows otherwise.
Perhaps, I’m not sure as it being the only logical way forward. While the peace proposal is a good one, logical and I think well worth considering, we also have consider the other side that if China and Russia are working together to break with the west, they aren’t likely to be too kind about it. A major factor to consider is whether the east west break is being driven by America, or by Russia and China or all involved now. Another is what are their intentions in doing so. What is their vision of a future world order? There’s a lot to think about if you see what I mean before we say that’s the only way forward. There’s a lot going on. I think it’s worth seriously considering peace, but we also have to accept it may not be our choice, it may not be an option now. It depends on Russia and Chinas attitude as much as it does ours.
Because it is blatant lie which Russian stooges on here keep repeating.
There was Ukrainian independence referendum in 1991 and Donbass and Luhansk voted over 80% to be part of Ukraine.
Even Crimea voted 54% for it.
Idea that surrendering to Russia would benefit Ukraine is just a sick joke.
People argue the same when appeasing Hitler.
Please tell us how well it worked out?
Please tell us as well why successful aggressor like Putin would stop there?
Historical precedence shows otherwise.
Invading a sovereign country twice pretty much proves someone doesn’t care about the int’l order.
Probably never did.
You should highlight (5) of Elliot Bjorn;s submission. It is the only logical way forward, benefiting every nation – including Ukraine, which is being destroyed for largely political and economic advantage as stated in (2).
Putin’s invasion was a “Black Swan event” that changed everything.
You just have to accept that the good times of 1991-2022 (that very much resembled the 1920s) are over.
All those Post-Modern dreams and aspirations died the death on 24 Feb. This is 1915, or 1940.
Just get used to it, and try to figure out where we go from here. Unlike Realists like Mearsheimer, learn from history–and so become realistic.
Are you still here? You, Mr logan, are not here for sensible conversation, you have proved that over and over again. I doubt, from the quality of your previous posts, you are capable of the intelligence to contemplate the very big and complicated world of geopolitics. Please forgive me, but you are not worth engaging with.
IOW, you can’t think of a good reply.
IOW, you can’t think of a good reply.
Are you still here? You, Mr logan, are not here for sensible conversation, you have proved that over and over again. I doubt, from the quality of your previous posts, you are capable of the intelligence to contemplate the very big and complicated world of geopolitics. Please forgive me, but you are not worth engaging with.
‘Or is it something else??’
Have you read about the ‘multi polar’ world? America is shifting its supply chains away from the east it seems, I think we are looking at a breaking of the existing globalised world order that was dominated by America, into regional power blocs maybe. For many reasons, America and the East not getting on, supply chain crisis from covid etc. If you search for global trends report 2040, it discusses the geopolitical situations likely by 2040, one is ‘separate silos’.
I agree the situation is increasingly complex, there seems to be a fair few proxy wars going on at the moment all over the place, like you say many black swans a circling. Nukes are not the main worry either, I agree, it’s the supply chain chaos, sanctions on energy, fertiliser shortage etc that perhaps should be worrying about more. Especially if the US and China end up fighting over Taiwan. I do think maybe it would be wise to take a step back at this point and decide whether breaking all this up is worth the consequences. Maybe russia and China are intent on breaking the old order now anyway?
Putin’s invasion was a “Black Swan event” that changed everything.
You just have to accept that the good times of 1991-2022 (that very much resembled the 1920s) are over.
All those Post-Modern dreams and aspirations died the death on 24 Feb. This is 1915, or 1940.
Just get used to it, and try to figure out where we go from here. Unlike Realists like Mearsheimer, learn from history–and so become realistic.
OK – I would have asked this guy a very different set of questions.
1) What is the Point of this war? Why is Putin doing it, why is Zalenski having Ukraine destroying its self and its people and the world to avoid a treaty – one they may not like, but better than death and destruction. In other words – why is Biden/Boris doing this?
2) Is this an intentional Stale Mate? It would seem so. There are many reasons to think this stalemate is a desired outcome so far. Who blew up the Pipeline, and why is Germany Industry dismantling and moving to USA for cheap and reliable energy? What about the 26 fertilizer manufacturing plants in Europe shut down because no gas as feed-stock? (Evin the fertilizer plant in New Zealand shut – crazy stuff is afoot – Russia and Ukraine are the worlds biggest fertilizer suppliers – not now) Why is USA supplying expensive gas – and Qtar more so, to Europe LNG – way more than just Russian gas through a pipeline – is it worth wrecking the European economy over which flag flies over Donbas? Or is it something else??
3) How much $ to rebuild? What will Ukraine be once re-built? In this day of collapsing demographics, will Ukrainians stay 40,000,000 forty Million? or end up 25,000,000? They have the worst demographics in the region already. Who will pay the $ One Trillion $$ to rebuild? I know Blackrock and Blackwater are there like pigs looking for a trough.
4) as 7% of European gas goes through Azerbaijan, and the war with Armenia is looking scary, and you know Erdogan is going to get up to stuff – all the pipelines go through Turkey – Is there another Black Swan circling – Has this war created a situation where there is NO buffering in the system so a Black Swan Event will tip us all into global Depression? In other words can the world tolerate this destabilization at this precarious time (post covid insanity) Is this war a lot like Serbia and WWI?
5) what is so bad about a treaty – that Donbas become independent? India did it, tons of countries did it. Why is Peace not the FIRST thing on Every mind? The world is walking a knife edge – this war is insane, It is destroying the global economy and destabilizing everything. Is it worth wrecking the world over Donbas staying Ukrainian and that they can join NATO?
6) What if Biden gives F-16s and long range bombs, and some advisors on the ground so Putin blows up some Atlantic undersea cables and a couple Super Tankers get blown up in the Straits of Malacca and the entire global economy stops completely? You talk of battlefield nukes – lots worse than that can happen – just with simple explosives – Why drive the bear into a corner and then just keep poking him? Is this evil war worth destroying the world? Billions could die if the supply and economy breaks – and this could do it.
What if Ukraine suffers a catastrophic defeat? Will the US use nuclear weapons to stop Russia?
Understand that in Western war-games, it is regularly NATO that first uses nuclear weapons, and regularly “tactical nukes”, in the vain hope that would not lead to an escalation. Russian conventional missiles are powerful enough that Russia does not need to resort to tactical nukes, they offer no military advantage.
Actually, Russian doctrine makes no difference between tactical non-nuclear weapons and tactical nuclear weapons.
Which has always been the worry in NATO.
Actually it is Russian doctrine of “nuclear deescalation” with tactical nukes.
In their military exercises with code “Zapad” they often used nuclear attack on Warsaw to “win” the war.
Actually, Russian doctrine makes no difference between tactical non-nuclear weapons and tactical nuclear weapons.
Which has always been the worry in NATO.
Actually it is Russian doctrine of “nuclear deescalation” with tactical nukes.
In their military exercises with code “Zapad” they often used nuclear attack on Warsaw to “win” the war.
What if Ukraine suffers a catastrophic defeat? Will the US use nuclear weapons to stop Russia?
Understand that in Western war-games, it is regularly NATO that first uses nuclear weapons, and regularly “tactical nukes”, in the vain hope that would not lead to an escalation. Russian conventional missiles are powerful enough that Russia does not need to resort to tactical nukes, they offer no military advantage.