There is no ‘epidemic’ of anti-trans violence
The White House is using recklessly imprecise language
Following the example of various activist organisations, the White House recently stated that there is an ongoing “epidemic” of violence against transgender people in the United States. Many, including Twitter CEO Elon Musk, have responded by questioning whether this assertion is rooted in fact. To cut through the speculation, it’s worth looking at the data.
Claims of an “epidemic” of violence against transgender Americans have been around since at least 2015. It’s unclear exactly what is meant, but a reasonable way of interpreting these headlines is that transgender people experience substantially higher rates of violence than non-transgender people.
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There’s an added complication: if transgender people do experience higher rates of violence, that could be for reasons other than their gender identity. They could be overrepresented in certain high-risk categories, with gender identity itself having no independent effect. In that case, it might still be reasonable to speak of an “epidemic of violence” — though the statement would need to be qualified.
As the sociologist Laurel Westbrook notes, research on violence against transgender people has been hampered by a lack of good data and over-reliance on convenience samples. The number of transgender people is small to begin with. And since gender identity has only come to the forefront of public discussion in the last decade or so, many surveys have only recently added germane questions.
What’s more, simply asking respondents whether they are “male”, “female” or “transgender” can lead to error, given that some transgender people prefer to answer “male” or “female”. One way of getting around this is to include an additional question asking respondents for their natal sex.
With all that said, there are several studies worth considering.
In 2021, Andrew Flores and colleagues analysed data from the National Crime Victimisation Survey — a large, nationally representative survey administered by the Bureau of Justice Statistics. They found that transgender people experienced personal violence at a rate four times higher than non-transgender people — albeit with a large confidence interval (owing to the small number of transgender people in the sample).
This finding would seem to support the “epidemic of violence” narrative. Yet the comparison was unadjusted, and evidence from homicide rates appears to go in the other direction.
In 2017, Alexis Dinno of Portland State University estimated homicide rates for transgender people using data from publicly available databases compiled by activists. She then compared these to homicide rates for non-transgender people under different assumptions about the size of the transgender population and the extent of undercounting of transgender homicides. Dinno found that in eight out of 12 comparisons, homicide rates for transgender people were lower.
In a subsequent analysis of one activist-compiled database, the political scientist Wilfred Reilly observed that the murder rate for transgender Americans was lower than that for the general population.
These findings were replicated in a 2022 study by Tom Fouché and colleagues at the University of Chicago, who used the CDC’s National Violent Death Reporting System — a large database that collates data from a number of sources, such as health authorities and law enforcement. The researchers found that transgender people made up 0.1% of homicide victims, compared to a typical population estimate of 0.6% (though they suggest this may be due to inaccurate reporting.)
Overall, then, the evidence is mixed. One recent study found that transgender people face higher rates of personal violence than non-transgender people, whereas several others have found that they face lower rates of homicide. Given this lack of consistency, and the general paucity of research, referring to an “epidemic of violence” does not seem justified. The White House should moderate its language.
Meanwhile, another protestor in Vancouver was brutally assaulted on the weekend. As far as I can tell, he was not anti-trans, but protesting the indoctrination of children.
These trans-activists and their supporters are just foot soldiers doing the grunt-work for an increasingly powerful movement backed by very big money. Key movers include Tim Gill, Pat, Ronda and Jon Stryker, The Arcus Foundation.
Then there is the very strange Martine Rothblatt (formerly a man) who combines an enthusiasm for transhumanism with his/her transgender activism. He even made a robot equivalent of his wife – Bina48. You can see this AI creation being interviewed by Siri (yes, really!) on YouTube. Truly creepy, but it does flag up the AI/transgender connection.
You can add Tides and the Open Society Foundation run by one George Soros to that list. They have been pushing for this stuff for over a decade.
I should also have included the enormously wealthy Pritzker Family and in particular their Tawani Foundation. The Tawani was founded by James (now Jennifer) Pritzker, the world’s first transgender billionaire. He looks a bit like a tubbier version of Eddy Izard. Surprisingly, perhaps, he is a Republican.
A tubby Vichy Republican, I’ve no doubt.
Not another conspiracy against fair minded George. Pushing for what stuff? It is perfectly reasonable for Trans people to be protected and helped but not at the expense of women who were born women. Locally, the ONLY violence I have witnessed was Trans women backed by two local Gay liberal men fired up by Stonewall’s propaganda, attacking women who stood up for women only spaces being retained.
Maybe it’s just me, but I were protesting genocide against my own people, or anyone else, I wouldn’t be having a good day out and be smiling for the camera.
Well, yes. Exactly.
Nor would you be seeing the numbers of the ‘genocided’ group increase exponentially.
Good on you for attempting to find the data on this, but everyone knows (aside from those committed to the ideology, of course) that there is no such data.
The claims of an “epidemic of anti-trans violence” were pulled from thin air merely as a way to silence dissent and shame critics. It has never been grounded in fact.
I would want to know how “violence” is or can be defined. Does violence includes so called hate speech on twitter or does a punch have to be thrown to count a personal violence?
Let me try to help. Wink. Violence is the slapping, pushing and punching frequently perpetrated by trans activists on those trying to protect women’s and children’s rights during protests. This has been widely captured on video. It seems to have escalated recently. One step down from this is trans activists screaming (usually the same sentence) and spitting repetitively a few centimetres from a protester’s face.
Quite. Also, remember that, apparently, ‘Silence is Violence'(TM) too!
If saying the ‘wrong’ thing is unacceptable and silence is violence, the only option left is compelled speech.
The Left has taken the trans sicko killing 3 children and 3 adults in a Christian School to be actually – an attack by Christianity on Trans, and that the shooter was the real victim.
Watch all the reaction to it…
“Violence” includes silently believing that a human being cannot change from one sex to the other.
Holding a belief and keeping it to yourself is not violence. It is holding a belief, something that we are all free to do. We are not free to enact violence on or against others.
We don’t have thought police, not yet.
When a conservative speaks or just holds a sign – that’s “literally violence” or “stochastic violence”. When a progressive burns down a police station or beats up a 60 year old woman that is “mostly peaceful protest” or “self defence.” I hope that clarifies things.
I suspect that ultimately it will be shown that trans individuals experience lower rates of violence because they tend to come from higher income groups that already experience a lower rate of violence and homicide. Psychiatrists, hormone suppression drugs, and sex transition surgery are all expensive things that most lower class people would not be able to afford. Of course, one could still self identify as trans without things like a psychiatric diagnosis, a sex change operation, or a regimen of hormone therapy, but that gives rise to other questions, such as how one qualifies as ‘trans’ in the first place. Does one simply have to dress up as the opposite sex? If so, how does anyone, including violent criminals, decide who is or isn’t transexual. Does the offender have to know the person is ‘transexual’ rather than just someone cross dressing and commit the crime for that reason for it to count towards this epidemic of violence or is it sufficient that a trans person simply be a victim of violent crime? Such endless questions and technicalities are the reason nobody should take political soundbites seriously. They almost never hold up to actual scientific scrutiny and could be either confirmed, rejected, or rendered moot depending on the underlying assumptions.
Cross-dressing isn’t required – self-declaration is all that’s required, apparently. This also includes those who claim to be ‘non-binary’ (yes, I know trans and non-binary are mutually exclusive)!
Many people don’t know that the only criterion for “being trans” is saying you are the other sex. There are literally no other requirements.
Most m-to-f trans people are transvestites/ autogynephiles – men masquerading as women. They don’t want surgery because their male bits are essential for the performance of their fetishes.
“The White House is using recklessly imprecise language”. We call it lying for effect. What else would you expect from Joe Biden?
It’s all part of the victim narrative as in the United States the greater the victim credentials the higher the status. What I don’t understand is why nobody has asked the transgender lobby why they should be prioritised for help because of a suicide risk over other high or higher risk groups. Apparently, 80% of all suicides in the United States are by men and women between 45 and 54, and men over 85 have the highest suicide rate of all. Why shouldn’t resources target and prioritise these groups.
Trans ideology is itself the quintessential physical violence.
How much violent crime is committed by trans identified people compared to the non trans population? Given there have been 4 trans/non binary mass shooters in the last few years in the US, it seems that trans people are more of a danger than in danger.
The woke redefine words routinely. By “violence” they don’t mean like gay bashing, they mean “you won’t think what I want you to think, and do what I say”
You know, it’s true: a picture is worth a thousand words. Just look at the photo accompanying this article. Twenty years ago these people would have been called clowns at best, freaks at worst. Now, they want to be considered normal. Of course, they deny that there is anything normal. OK. So, bastardize the language and reality all you want. That doesn’t make normality vanish. Let’s face it: these people are NUTS!
Trans activists would seem to be no great loss to society. Not by any means advocating their elimination but a period of respectful silence might be appreciated instead of them creating hateful screaming mobs of misogynist men.
Most of the violence will likely be due to the victim’s involvement in either the drug trade or prostitution, with the perpetrators being unsatisfied customers.
I suspect that hetero men being fooled by a trap (trans or cross dresser) might become violent. Many men are afraid of any accusation of being gay.
There is a well-funded annual, international Trans Day of Remembrance (TDoR) which is supported by all major institutions and NGOs. Given that – outside of Brazil – being ‘trans’ is one of the safest demographics you could belong to, there is obviously some major power play going on here behind the scenes.
If ‘silence is violence’ transgender people are the victims of truly horrifying levels of violence.
And if this nonsense goes on much longer I’m going to commit violence against my laptop screen.
You’re going to be silent to your laptop screen then.
Logically, that must be correct although it’s not what I had in mind.
The violence against people who don’t know what they are ,l like the violence against people who practice same sex sexual acts, is overwhelmingly from themselves, especially the transmission of AIDS by sexual acts that cannot be performed naturally or safely. That is the overwhelming violence against these people so many of whom were sexually abused at formative ages as the NYCity surveys showed during the deadliest AIDS epidemics. Not much “gay” about sodomy. Time we got real.
One source suggested that trans women are more likely to work as prostitutes, a dangerous job.
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