January 31, 2023 - 3:19pm
Almost seven years on from the EU referendum and our tedious, unending national row over Brexit continues unabated, each side just as bad as they were during the campaign itself. Today’s gloomy report from the IMF is just the latest shot of vodka sustaining this now slurring debate, which has somehow never quite found a way to sober up long after everyone else has got up from the table and gone to bed.
Britain will have the worst economic growth in the developed world this year, according to the IMF, contracting by 0.9% while much of the rest of Europe pulls away. To many, it’s all Brexit’s fault, of course. Is anything not?
Yet at the same time, the very same IMF believes that Britain’s medium-term prospects are, well, fine — albeit distinctly mediocre. According to the body, British growth will likely stabilise at 1.5% by 2027, which is higher than that of Italy, Germany and the wider eurozone in general. Should we put much stock in this number? Probably not, but still, our national debate over Brexit should not bounce from hysteria over one set of forecasts from an organisation while ignoring another.
None of this means Brexit was a good idea, or indeed a bad one. That is a different question. Most economists believe Britain’s economic growth would have been stronger had the country voted to remain in 2016. But it didn’t. The banal reality is that since 2016 Britain’s growth has been mediocre and will likely continue to be mediocre for some time to come. But in this respect, Britain is not so different from most of its European peers. According to the OECD, between 2016 and 2024, Britain’s economy will have grown at almost exactly the same rate as Germany’s.
No serious economist believes Britain is going into recession this year because of — or even mainly because of — Brexit. Those who do are obviously doing so in bad faith. Economically, Britain was hit harder than most by the pandemic, just as it was hit far harder than most by the global financial crisis of 2007/08. It is worth pausing to ask why. Since then, Britain has gone through a series of rolling political crises in which one prime minister was removed in favour of another. The last then immediately sparked a currency and debt crisis by announcing sweeping tax cuts and spending pledges without any indication of how to pay for it. In response, a third prime minister came in and, in effect, promised even more austerity which the IMF now cites as a reason for its downgrade of Britain’s growth prospects.
What is so odd is that there are plenty of perfectly reasonable arguments with which to criticise Brexit. But it is plainly dishonest to take one year’s growth forecast and blame it on leaving the EU. Britain has had deep structural economic challenges for some time and will continue to do so. Like lots of other countries, Britain has lots of self-inflicted problems, whether you believe Brexit to be one or not.
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeThe economic consequences of lockdown were far greater – certainly in the short to medium term – than the economic consequences of Brexit. Yet people who demanded a longer and harsher lockdown, and derided any discussion of the economic price as “heartless” and “reckless”, tend to be the first to complain about the economic price of Brexit.
other European countries had lockdown and it hasn’t effected them as badly as the UK. Note we also have the biggest number of deaths in Europe (204,000)
Covid estimated to cost £300-400bn. and hopefully behind us.
But Brexit is here and the effects getting worse
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-31/brexit-is-costing-the-uk-100-billion-a-year-in-lost-output#xj4y7vzkg
Generally it has affected them as badly. And remember our deaths are “with Covid”, not “from Covid”. The German economy is doing very badly, (though of course they are not in the EU either)
What? Germany not in the EU? Really? ..are you sure?
They are the EU 🙂
They are the EU 🙂
The article says over 8 years 2016 to 2024 we will have mirrored Germany basically (in reality and with a little bit of prediction added on)… Reece Hudson reads that and then decides to just ignore it and parade his prejudices anyway.
What? Germany not in the EU? Really? ..are you sure?
The article says over 8 years 2016 to 2024 we will have mirrored Germany basically (in reality and with a little bit of prediction added on)… Reece Hudson reads that and then decides to just ignore it and parade his prejudices anyway.
No we don’t have the biggest number of deaths in Europe, and repeating this to yourself ad nausea won’t make it true.
Sorry but you did, as a % of population.. any other measure is irrelevant.
According to the table of deaths from Covid by country that appears in Wikipedia, Bulgaria has the worst death-rate per million population in Europe from that disease. There are sixteen further European countries with higher rates than the UK.
Thanks James. I just couldn’t be bothered confirming that, especially to someone who doesn’t care about facts.
I tracked the death rates closely, using a number of independent sources, and we came up as average, even amongst EU states.
Thanks James. I just couldn’t be bothered confirming that, especially to someone who doesn’t care about facts.
I tracked the death rates closely, using a number of independent sources, and we came up as average, even amongst EU states.
The Lancet’s review concluded that the UK’s higher numbers were due to different definitions and reporting standards, not actual deaths per se.
UK’s excess mortality was no different from the rest of W Europe:
https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext
As a percentage of population? The UK generally comes somewhere in the middle of the lists, near Belgium, Italy and Poland.
The Eastern European countries like Hungary and Slovenia have been the worst.
According to the table of deaths from Covid by country that appears in Wikipedia, Bulgaria has the worst death-rate per million population in Europe from that disease. There are sixteen further European countries with higher rates than the UK.
The Lancet’s review concluded that the UK’s higher numbers were due to different definitions and reporting standards, not actual deaths per se.
UK’s excess mortality was no different from the rest of W Europe:
https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext
As a percentage of population? The UK generally comes somewhere in the middle of the lists, near Belgium, Italy and Poland.
The Eastern European countries like Hungary and Slovenia have been the worst.
Sorry but you did, as a % of population.. any other measure is irrelevant.
The Lancet have done a review of Covid and concluded that our higher numbers were due to differences in definitions and reporting, not higher Covid deaths per se. UK excess mortality was same as the rest of W Europe:
https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext
I’m sorry, this is rubbish.
Italy had almost identical lockdown, yet it has been hit worse. Germany had less lockdown, but its growth over the last few years is almost identical to the uK.
As the author notes, it’s ridiculous basing arguments on predictions of fractions of a percent in single quarters.
Generally it has affected them as badly. And remember our deaths are “with Covid”, not “from Covid”. The German economy is doing very badly, (though of course they are not in the EU either)
No we don’t have the biggest number of deaths in Europe, and repeating this to yourself ad nausea won’t make it true.
The Lancet have done a review of Covid and concluded that our higher numbers were due to differences in definitions and reporting, not higher Covid deaths per se. UK excess mortality was same as the rest of W Europe:
https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext
I’m sorry, this is rubbish.
Italy had almost identical lockdown, yet it has been hit worse. Germany had less lockdown, but its growth over the last few years is almost identical to the uK.
As the author notes, it’s ridiculous basing arguments on predictions of fractions of a percent in single quarters.
And the people who think the world comes to an end because of some small changes to export declarations for British fresh meat products into the EU are happy to ban the production of petrol-driven cars and gas boilers in the UK in 7 years time and the rest of these lunatic Net Zero interventions.
You’re forgetting Brexiteers were in charge come the Pandemic. They made the decisions. What’s tending to happen is Brexiteers then blame the pandemic.
It’ll be something else soon. It’s the Playbook – find someone/something else to blame.
Yes, if only Kier Starmer had been in charge during the pandemic, there’s no way we would have had so many lockdowns!
I rest my case.
Sarcasm, in case you missed it. Any mention of Brexit and some people’s brains dribble out of their ears.
Sarcasm, in case you missed it. Any mention of Brexit and some people’s brains dribble out of their ears.
We would still be in lockdown as the ditherer would still be dithering.
I rest my case.
We would still be in lockdown as the ditherer would still be dithering.
The article says the UK will have tracked Germany’s economic growth rate over the 8 years 2016 to 2024.
Are you saying the Brexiteers have been in charge in Germany as well?
Forecasts are for it to do a bit better than us. Not by much, but better. Eurozone as a whole doing quite a bit better than us. The German economy is now bigger than pre pandemic. Ours is not.
Brexit is not a cliff edge and never was. It’s an added self inflicted slow puncture to an engine that has needed replacing anyway since the crash of 2008.
You realise you’re talking about differences in the order of fractions of a percent?
And this is no surprise, as nothing much has actually changed yet. The UK left the EU with an FTA, and so far it has not exploited the possibilities.
TPP membership and freeports are the sort things that would change economic outlooks. They are in the workd.
You realise you’re talking about differences in the order of fractions of a percent?
And this is no surprise, as nothing much has actually changed yet. The UK left the EU with an FTA, and so far it has not exploited the possibilities.
TPP membership and freeports are the sort things that would change economic outlooks. They are in the workd.
Forecasts are for it to do a bit better than us. Not by much, but better. Eurozone as a whole doing quite a bit better than us. The German economy is now bigger than pre pandemic. Ours is not.
Brexit is not a cliff edge and never was. It’s an added self inflicted slow puncture to an engine that has needed replacing anyway since the crash of 2008.
Are you saying that the Remoaners don’t have their own playbook? Just one example being “all brexit voters are stupid and uneducated”.
Or Brexit has been responsible for a big increase in racism in Britain (as if there were no right wing parties in other European countries, such as Germany, France, Italy etc).
Or 48% is somehow more than 52% (how do you work that one out?!)
For the record, I was a staunch remain voter and supporter in 2016 and was shocked by the referendum result at the time, but gradually moved over to the “leave” camp as I felt we should accept the result of a democratic referendum (which was not “advisory” but an In/Out referendum). Also, I was disgusted by the tactics of the Remainers in trying to smear those ordinary people for whom membership of the EU meant nothing.
Yes certainly the case the debate plumbed depths on both sides we could and should have avoided. I don’t defend the labelling of millions of folks as stupid etc either, but’s not quite a Playbook issue. Whereas finding a scapegoat and leading a Populist charge against them/it is. It’s been done before at many times.
And yes you are correct some other EU countries have their own far Right/racially biased parties/groupings. The question for us is – did the whole issue fuel a spike in such abuse in what had been a better, more moderate country? I think something in this.
Yes certainly the case the debate plumbed depths on both sides we could and should have avoided. I don’t defend the labelling of millions of folks as stupid etc either, but’s not quite a Playbook issue. Whereas finding a scapegoat and leading a Populist charge against them/it is. It’s been done before at many times.
And yes you are correct some other EU countries have their own far Right/racially biased parties/groupings. The question for us is – did the whole issue fuel a spike in such abuse in what had been a better, more moderate country? I think something in this.
There is also a lot of asymmetric argument.
Leavers wanted to leave for reasons of self-determination, not because they were expecting economic growth.
Amazingly a lot of Remainers appear to not have actually read Maastricht and Lisbon, and don’t even understand the problem.
There is also a lot of asymmetric argument.
Leavers wanted to leave for reasons of self-determination, not because they were expecting economic growth.
Amazingly a lot of Remainers appear to not have actually read Maastricht and Lisbon, and don’t even understand the problem.
Yes certainly the case the debate plumbed depths on both sides we could and should have avoided. I don’t defend the labelling of millions of folks as stupid etc either, but’s not quite a Playbook issue. Whereas finding a scapegoat and leading a Populist charge against them/it is. It’s been done before at many times.
And yes you are correct some other EU countries have their own far Right/racially biased parties/groupings. The question for us is – did the whole issue fuel a spike in such abuse in what had been a better, more moderate country? I think something in this.
Yes certainly the case the debate plumbed depths on both sides we could and should have avoided. I don’t defend the labelling of millions of folks as stupid etc either, but’s not quite a Playbook issue. Whereas finding a scapegoat and leading a Populist charge against them/it is. It’s been done before at many times.
And yes you are correct some other EU countries have their own far Right/racially biased parties/groupings. The question for us is – did the whole issue fuel a spike in such abuse in what had been a better, more moderate country? I think something in this.
You’re right. The economy is a basket case, and Brexit IS to blame; mea (brexiteer) culpa – now what?
Yes, if only Kier Starmer had been in charge during the pandemic, there’s no way we would have had so many lockdowns!
The article says the UK will have tracked Germany’s economic growth rate over the 8 years 2016 to 2024.
Are you saying the Brexiteers have been in charge in Germany as well?
Are you saying that the Remoaners don’t have their own playbook? Just one example being “all brexit voters are stupid and uneducated”.
Or Brexit has been responsible for a big increase in racism in Britain (as if there were no right wing parties in other European countries, such as Germany, France, Italy etc).
Or 48% is somehow more than 52% (how do you work that one out?!)
For the record, I was a staunch remain voter and supporter in 2016 and was shocked by the referendum result at the time, but gradually moved over to the “leave” camp as I felt we should accept the result of a democratic referendum (which was not “advisory” but an In/Out referendum). Also, I was disgusted by the tactics of the Remainers in trying to smear those ordinary people for whom membership of the EU meant nothing.
You’re right. The economy is a basket case, and Brexit IS to blame; mea (brexiteer) culpa – now what?
Good point..well observed.
other European countries had lockdown and it hasn’t effected them as badly as the UK. Note we also have the biggest number of deaths in Europe (204,000)
Covid estimated to cost £300-400bn. and hopefully behind us.
But Brexit is here and the effects getting worse
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-31/brexit-is-costing-the-uk-100-billion-a-year-in-lost-output#xj4y7vzkg
And the people who think the world comes to an end because of some small changes to export declarations for British fresh meat products into the EU are happy to ban the production of petrol-driven cars and gas boilers in the UK in 7 years time and the rest of these lunatic Net Zero interventions.
You’re forgetting Brexiteers were in charge come the Pandemic. They made the decisions. What’s tending to happen is Brexiteers then blame the pandemic.
It’ll be something else soon. It’s the Playbook – find someone/something else to blame.
Good point..well observed.
The economic consequences of lockdown were far greater – certainly in the short to medium term – than the economic consequences of Brexit. Yet people who demanded a longer and harsher lockdown, and derided any discussion of the economic price as “heartless” and “reckless”, tend to be the first to complain about the economic price of Brexit.
What a great analogy about the drunk still babbling about Brexit, every time I see something blamed on it, I heave an inner sigh and wonder how long the obsession is going to continue spluttering along. It’s done, now let’s just get on with the present please.
The indepent Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts a 4% reduction in the size of the British economy due to Brexit over the longer term.
Yes seems right. Obviously Brexit hasn’t got bad enough for you yet, before a suggestion of a re-think
Have you been drinking ?
Kool Aid?
Kool Aid?
Yes and that was a forecast over 10-15yrs, yet we are 4% behind already. That’s causing quite a debate in economist circles. The longer term 4% is broadly agreed from the comparable modelling. Thus is it going to be much worse or is it just an initial blip that’ll bounce back somewhat. Too early to say.
The figure of 4% was not arrived at “by agreement” ..it is the result of exhaustive analysis. You may be confusing it with wishful thinking..
What’s Germany’s excuse..as they seem to be identical? Did they leave the EU?
We are absolutely not 4% behind. That’s ‘doppelganger’ bullshit; our economy has in fact grown 2016-2022 by *exactly* the same amount as France and Germany.
Further, OECD, IMF and PwC all now expect UK longrun GDP growth to outgrow France and Germany. Not 2023, but in the longterm (which is what matters).
Source: OECD Jan 2023
https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-long-term-forecast.htm
The UK is 4% behind? Behind who?.
Did you read the report? In the first two years of Brexit UKs growth was <i>twice</i> that of Germany. Over the whole period from the Brexit vote to date the difference is 0.1%
The figure of 4% was not arrived at “by agreement” ..it is the result of exhaustive analysis. You may be confusing it with wishful thinking..
What’s Germany’s excuse..as they seem to be identical? Did they leave the EU?
We are absolutely not 4% behind. That’s ‘doppelganger’ bullshit; our economy has in fact grown 2016-2022 by *exactly* the same amount as France and Germany.
Further, OECD, IMF and PwC all now expect UK longrun GDP growth to outgrow France and Germany. Not 2023, but in the longterm (which is what matters).
Source: OECD Jan 2023
https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-long-term-forecast.htm
The UK is 4% behind? Behind who?.
Did you read the report? In the first two years of Brexit UKs growth was <i>twice</i> that of Germany. Over the whole period from the Brexit vote to date the difference is 0.1%
Honest question… Why so many dislikes? is there something wrong with that forecast?
It’s just a forecast – and the amount of variables in the model are huge. We will never be able to fully validate any figure.
The OBR’s 4% reduction:
A) was made in 2017 ie before the TCA was agreed so is outdated given our current trading agreements
B) has been proven wrong by comparing our growth rates vs FR, DE, ES and IT from the referendum until lockdown (which is when most of that 4% was supposed to happen).
It’s just a forecast – and the amount of variables in the model are huge. We will never be able to fully validate any figure.
The OBR’s 4% reduction:
A) was made in 2017 ie before the TCA was agreed so is outdated given our current trading agreements
B) has been proven wrong by comparing our growth rates vs FR, DE, ES and IT from the referendum until lockdown (which is when most of that 4% was supposed to happen).
So how would the projections be if the UK had maintained the staus quo. That is, in the EU but <i>not</i> in the Euro, and all that eventually derives from that?
Have you been drinking ?
Yes and that was a forecast over 10-15yrs, yet we are 4% behind already. That’s causing quite a debate in economist circles. The longer term 4% is broadly agreed from the comparable modelling. Thus is it going to be much worse or is it just an initial blip that’ll bounce back somewhat. Too early to say.
Honest question… Why so many dislikes? is there something wrong with that forecast?
So how would the projections be if the UK had maintained the staus quo. That is, in the EU but <i>not</i> in the Euro, and all that eventually derives from that?
How do you recommend GB “gets on with (it)”? All the KPIs are hopeless.. no wriggle room..
You’ll need more unicorns!
The indepent Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts a 4% reduction in the size of the British economy due to Brexit over the longer term.
Yes seems right. Obviously Brexit hasn’t got bad enough for you yet, before a suggestion of a re-think
How do you recommend GB “gets on with (it)”? All the KPIs are hopeless.. no wriggle room..
You’ll need more unicorns!
What a great analogy about the drunk still babbling about Brexit, every time I see something blamed on it, I heave an inner sigh and wonder how long the obsession is going to continue spluttering along. It’s done, now let’s just get on with the present please.
It is difficult to end the argument since only one side is continuing it. But that side contains parliament, government, the entire establishment, most of the media, indeed most of the money and power in the UK.
The other side, the referendum winners, simply voted to leave the EU and won. They are not complaining now – except in response to the continuing attempts to sabotage, undermine, and reverse their democratic vote.
So rather than a bar-room squabble, this is better described as a civil war. And, like the second world war, there is a good side and a bad side on this one. It is democracy versus the combined forces of anti-democracy – both inside and outside the UK.
Think you’d get along just fine under the CCP. Make a decision and then close down all debate and accountability for delivery.
Now remember if the Govt changes in next election no peeps out of you if you don’t like decisions and/or if you feel a new Govt got there through deception etc. (Yes that’s not reasonable is it and I wouldn’t expect you to be silent, but you’ll get the point even if you don’t like it)
It was your ‘side’ that tried to stop the referendum result being enacted, going as far as to close down parliament to achieve your ends.
We don’t need advice on democracy and free speech from those who tried to stop Brexit.
Once vote won it had to happen, in some form at least. Some Remain supporters certainly wanted a review or new vote once the deal and details became clearer. I wasn’t one of those. However the delays were much more caused by Brexiteers failing for 3 years to agree on the form of Brexit. They had a Parliamentary majority the whole time.
But that wasn’t actually the point of debate – the point was some Brexiteers want no debate/criticism about non delivery of the benefits Public was sold. Unfortunately that isn’t going to happen. You are going to be constantly reminded until we see actual delivery of something better than what we had. Currently whether on economy or immigration it’s a shambles.
To “deliver” the Brexit you want (were promised by the liars) you need more obedient trading victims, Oz and NZ to be moved closer to GB and above all, more unicorns and magic wands.
The problem for the three years of Bercow’s Clown Parliament was that Leave did not have a majority. The representative Parliament did not represent the views of the electorate and the will they expressed, as 75%+ 0f MPs voted Remain.
It took three years of witnessing endless attempts by all sorts of anti-Leave people inside, outside and half inside Parliament before the electorate corrected that unrepresentative parliament.
Whatever you think about the competence of Tories, Johnson, Truss, Rees-Mogg or anyone else, the electorate reaffirmed the referendum of 2016 without any possibility of doubt, in 2019.
The War in Ukraine has even led the EU to acceptance of the fact that after two such votes a third would simply confirm the reality that the UK has really left and won’t return in any forseeable future.
That leaves a slowly dwindling group of all-in FBPE types, over represented in social media, of ever-remainers, and those in the media making their careers these days by click baiting and harvesting their clicks, best engineered by pandering to their biases and prejudices.
Thanks Ted – it’s tiresome having to point this out repeatedly!
Thanks Ted – it’s tiresome having to point this out repeatedly!
To “deliver” the Brexit you want (were promised by the liars) you need more obedient trading victims, Oz and NZ to be moved closer to GB and above all, more unicorns and magic wands.
The problem for the three years of Bercow’s Clown Parliament was that Leave did not have a majority. The representative Parliament did not represent the views of the electorate and the will they expressed, as 75%+ 0f MPs voted Remain.
It took three years of witnessing endless attempts by all sorts of anti-Leave people inside, outside and half inside Parliament before the electorate corrected that unrepresentative parliament.
Whatever you think about the competence of Tories, Johnson, Truss, Rees-Mogg or anyone else, the electorate reaffirmed the referendum of 2016 without any possibility of doubt, in 2019.
The War in Ukraine has even led the EU to acceptance of the fact that after two such votes a third would simply confirm the reality that the UK has really left and won’t return in any forseeable future.
That leaves a slowly dwindling group of all-in FBPE types, over represented in social media, of ever-remainers, and those in the media making their careers these days by click baiting and harvesting their clicks, best engineered by pandering to their biases and prejudices.
It was proposed to Johnson. He refused. As a result parliament opened after the summer recess and voted a motion that blocked Brexit. That was before any of the supreme court grandstanding.
That was why the UK did not leave at the end of October 2019, as was programmed.
All the rest was spin.
Once vote won it had to happen, in some form at least. Some Remain supporters certainly wanted a review or new vote once the deal and details became clearer. I wasn’t one of those. However the delays were much more caused by Brexiteers failing for 3 years to agree on the form of Brexit. They had a Parliamentary majority the whole time.
But that wasn’t actually the point of debate – the point was some Brexiteers want no debate/criticism about non delivery of the benefits Public was sold. Unfortunately that isn’t going to happen. You are going to be constantly reminded until we see actual delivery of something better than what we had. Currently whether on economy or immigration it’s a shambles.
It was proposed to Johnson. He refused. As a result parliament opened after the summer recess and voted a motion that blocked Brexit. That was before any of the supreme court grandstanding.
That was why the UK did not leave at the end of October 2019, as was programmed.
All the rest was spin.
Nobody is closing down debate j, you can remoan as much as you like.
I think the new phrase that’s entered the lexicon recently is ‘Bremoaners’ – Brexiteers now moaning that what we’ve really had isn’t really Brexit. You couldn’t make it up could you.
And where did the phrase “Gammon” arrive at? As a leaver I do like it with eggs, chips, and peas. There are some weirdos out there.
Quite simple explanation really. They are meaning that we have done virtually nothing to exploit the democratic freedoms yet. BRINO will hopefully end soon.
And where did the phrase “Gammon” arrive at? As a leaver I do like it with eggs, chips, and peas. There are some weirdos out there.
Quite simple explanation really. They are meaning that we have done virtually nothing to exploit the democratic freedoms yet. BRINO will hopefully end soon.
I think the new phrase that’s entered the lexicon recently is ‘Bremoaners’ – Brexiteers now moaning that what we’ve really had isn’t really Brexit. You couldn’t make it up could you.
But we’ve only just left the CCP, er, I mean the EEC or whatever it’s called these days.
One assumes a joke as anyone with half an idea what it’s like to live in a truly totalitarian state would be v happy to live pretty much anywhere in Europe.
Give yourself a gold/yellow star for spotting that my remark wasn’t totally serious. Perhaps the EU will lend you one of theirs, seeing as they have one spare at the moment.
Give yourself a gold/yellow star for spotting that my remark wasn’t totally serious. Perhaps the EU will lend you one of theirs, seeing as they have one spare at the moment.
Yrue but you’ve had 6 years to prepare haven’t you?
One assumes a joke as anyone with half an idea what it’s like to live in a truly totalitarian state would be v happy to live pretty much anywhere in Europe.
Yrue but you’ve had 6 years to prepare haven’t you?
The number one motivation for Brexit voters was self-determination, not maximizing GDP growth.
It was your ‘side’ that tried to stop the referendum result being enacted, going as far as to close down parliament to achieve your ends.
We don’t need advice on democracy and free speech from those who tried to stop Brexit.
Nobody is closing down debate j, you can remoan as much as you like.
But we’ve only just left the CCP, er, I mean the EEC or whatever it’s called these days.
The number one motivation for Brexit voters was self-determination, not maximizing GDP growth.
Spot on… after the disgraceful slurring of Leave voters are thick..and the memorable ‘Not all Leavers are racist, but all racists are leavers’ that went across Twitter and Social media, Leave voters accepted a Remain voter as PM, a remain voter as chancellor and remain voters across govt (David Gauke for Heaven;s sake!) all promising to ‘honour the vote’ while negotiating a useless deal under a stupidly framed structure.
After two years of trying to reverse the vote by any means possible during the disgraceful period of Bercow’s Parliament of Chaos, the Johnson Conservative vote in December 2019 was a resounding reaffirmation of intent.
Yet the likes of Campbell, James O’Brien, AC Grayling, and so on still won’t accept it.
Hopefully the EU, with more on their mind these days have finally decided to accept reality and respect the result, albeit half a decade later than they should have…But, better late than never.
Did folks vote to leave the Single Market or the Customs Union? They weren’t on the ballot paper from recollection. And you can be in them and not in the EU can’t you – Farage and Hannan told us that.
So out of the EU yes as a result of the Vote. Had to happen. The form of Exit though was not determined by a cross in a box, and hence the saga that followed. And the saga that continues and will inevitably continue. That’s democracy and public discourse. We may change our minds, and thus far the Brexiteers are doing a great job in making that a possibility
It was vague.
But Johnson made it quite clear when he called a GE…Brexit — deal or no deal. He wanted an FTA, but if the EU would not give it the UK would leave the EU without.
As it turned out, he got an FTA. A perfectly ordinary FTA, like all the ones everywhere else in the world.
This is what most people wanted.
It was vague.
But Johnson made it quite clear when he called a GE…Brexit — deal or no deal. He wanted an FTA, but if the EU would not give it the UK would leave the EU without.
As it turned out, he got an FTA. A perfectly ordinary FTA, like all the ones everywhere else in the world.
This is what most people wanted.
Sadly not Ted with Guy “Clarence” Verhofstadt stating that Brexit prompted the Russians to attack Ukraine. Not to be outdone Michel Barnier has welcomed the good European Keir Starmer and says he will be a good Prime Minister. Whooops!
Did folks vote to leave the Single Market or the Customs Union? They weren’t on the ballot paper from recollection. And you can be in them and not in the EU can’t you – Farage and Hannan told us that.
So out of the EU yes as a result of the Vote. Had to happen. The form of Exit though was not determined by a cross in a box, and hence the saga that followed. And the saga that continues and will inevitably continue. That’s democracy and public discourse. We may change our minds, and thus far the Brexiteers are doing a great job in making that a possibility
Sadly not Ted with Guy “Clarence” Verhofstadt stating that Brexit prompted the Russians to attack Ukraine. Not to be outdone Michel Barnier has welcomed the good European Keir Starmer and says he will be a good Prime Minister. Whooops!
Think you’d get along just fine under the CCP. Make a decision and then close down all debate and accountability for delivery.
Now remember if the Govt changes in next election no peeps out of you if you don’t like decisions and/or if you feel a new Govt got there through deception etc. (Yes that’s not reasonable is it and I wouldn’t expect you to be silent, but you’ll get the point even if you don’t like it)
Spot on… after the disgraceful slurring of Leave voters are thick..and the memorable ‘Not all Leavers are racist, but all racists are leavers’ that went across Twitter and Social media, Leave voters accepted a Remain voter as PM, a remain voter as chancellor and remain voters across govt (David Gauke for Heaven;s sake!) all promising to ‘honour the vote’ while negotiating a useless deal under a stupidly framed structure.
After two years of trying to reverse the vote by any means possible during the disgraceful period of Bercow’s Parliament of Chaos, the Johnson Conservative vote in December 2019 was a resounding reaffirmation of intent.
Yet the likes of Campbell, James O’Brien, AC Grayling, and so on still won’t accept it.
Hopefully the EU, with more on their mind these days have finally decided to accept reality and respect the result, albeit half a decade later than they should have…But, better late than never.
It is difficult to end the argument since only one side is continuing it. But that side contains parliament, government, the entire establishment, most of the media, indeed most of the money and power in the UK.
The other side, the referendum winners, simply voted to leave the EU and won. They are not complaining now – except in response to the continuing attempts to sabotage, undermine, and reverse their democratic vote.
So rather than a bar-room squabble, this is better described as a civil war. And, like the second world war, there is a good side and a bad side on this one. It is democracy versus the combined forces of anti-democracy – both inside and outside the UK.
Hallelujah! A bit of balance on Unherd after the series of ‘Brexit is a failure after 3 years’ articles.
”No serious economist believes Britain is going into recession this year because of — or even mainly because of — Brexit. Those who do are obviously doing so in bad faith.”
Do you think you could get a job providing input on economics to the BBC please?
‘Vote Leave and we can just possibly avoid a recession’ – hey that’d look good on the side of that Red Bus.
Brexit, the gift that keeps giving.
‘Vote Leave and we can just possibly avoid a recession’ – hey that’d look good on the side of that Red Bus.
Brexit, the gift that keeps giving.
Hallelujah! A bit of balance on Unherd after the series of ‘Brexit is a failure after 3 years’ articles.
”No serious economist believes Britain is going into recession this year because of — or even mainly because of — Brexit. Those who do are obviously doing so in bad faith.”
Do you think you could get a job providing input on economics to the BBC please?
Lo and behold…
Lo and behold…
Brexit hasn’t really happened, because the establishment (especially the Civil Service, and the narrow pool from whom most candidates for parliament are drawn) is dominated by a certain elitist religious mindset which knows it knows best and the rest of us are too witless to know what is good for us.
This class was gung ho for Remain, Covid lockdowns, foisting experimental mRNA (allegedly anti-Covid) gene therapy on the population, and a proxy war against Russia on the backs of the people of Ukraine.
The hubris of these mid-wit elites seems to know no bounds. They seemed to think that money can control everything even while their policies for decades have been draining the West of the tangible fundamentals that make money meaningful. Putin called their bluff, and now Europe is paying the price.
Germany, Europe’s last manufacturing powerhouse is starved of energy (which it used to obtain from Russia at very favourable rates, while it eschewed local coal and nuclear energy). The rest of Europe is faring just as badly (and that includes us). France still has a fighting chance to retain its standard of living, because so much of its electricity comes from nuclear power.
Thank you, mid-wit ruling class. Please retire, mind your own business and let the rest of us rebuild without your ever-centralising interference. If you retire willingly, we’ll pay your pensions – a cheap price to pay for our liberty and prosperity.
Brexit hasn’t really happened, because the establishment (especially the Civil Service, and the narrow pool from whom most candidates for parliament are drawn) is dominated by a certain elitist religious mindset which knows it knows best and the rest of us are too witless to know what is good for us.
This class was gung ho for Remain, Covid lockdowns, foisting experimental mRNA (allegedly anti-Covid) gene therapy on the population, and a proxy war against Russia on the backs of the people of Ukraine.
The hubris of these mid-wit elites seems to know no bounds. They seemed to think that money can control everything even while their policies for decades have been draining the West of the tangible fundamentals that make money meaningful. Putin called their bluff, and now Europe is paying the price.
Germany, Europe’s last manufacturing powerhouse is starved of energy (which it used to obtain from Russia at very favourable rates, while it eschewed local coal and nuclear energy). The rest of Europe is faring just as badly (and that includes us). France still has a fighting chance to retain its standard of living, because so much of its electricity comes from nuclear power.
Thank you, mid-wit ruling class. Please retire, mind your own business and let the rest of us rebuild without your ever-centralising interference. If you retire willingly, we’ll pay your pensions – a cheap price to pay for our liberty and prosperity.
You make an extraordinary argument; after decades of mediocre growth, typically tracking France but trailing Germany, we are now due to accelerate growth ahead of of the Eurozone and both those major W. European peers. Not in 2023, but in the long run (which is all that matters).
This is a *massive* turnaround in events. This single-handedly justifies the decision to Leave. How can you possibly characterise that as “fine…distinctly mediocre”?
You make an extraordinary argument; after decades of mediocre growth, typically tracking France but trailing Germany, we are now due to accelerate growth ahead of of the Eurozone and both those major W. European peers. Not in 2023, but in the long run (which is all that matters).
This is a *massive* turnaround in events. This single-handedly justifies the decision to Leave. How can you possibly characterise that as “fine…distinctly mediocre”?
“Easier just to get another shot at the bar and hope the morning never comes.” Which is what you and your colleagues are doing Tom by keep on bringing this subject up.
Please give me a government which ignores the media and decides what to do on its own merits.
The uks greatest error is importing millions of people who pay less tax than the £11500 they each cost in state services
Agree with Author. Making a sweeping judgment on one year’s data not very insightful or reflective.
However in part the problem is the ‘over-promising’ from Brexit exponents. You get hung by your own petard if you exaggerate and mislead. We also should remember the growth data related to 2016-21 is when we were still in the Single Market. The signs on Growth are not good subsequently and fact we had quite an increase immediately post pandemic was to be expected. Problem is our economy remains smaller than pre pandemic and that makes us an outlier. And we’re Britain – we should be miles better than this.
We should also not hide how Brexit has been a massive distraction from what we needed to focus on for the future. It’s also been making the Right fail to properly reflect on what is wrong with our economic model. All their eggs have been in this basket. It’s masked the inherent contradictions between what the Red Wall Tories might want and what the small ‘Staters’ want. Johnson held this contradiction together with bluster and bravado but eventually it was going to unravel. Truss and Kwateng weren’t wrong about needing re-energise Growth just they had the wrong solution – tax cuts rather than industrial & educational investment.
“We also should remember the growth data related to 2016-21 is when we were still in the Single Market.”
Interesting how keen Remainers are to brush aside that period, given that’s exactly the period where we were promised “broad and deep recession, 500K unemployed and 10% fall in house prices”
“We also should remember the growth data related to 2016-21 is when we were still in the Single Market.”
Interesting how keen Remainers are to brush aside that period, given that’s exactly the period where we were promised “broad and deep recession, 500K unemployed and 10% fall in house prices”
Agree with Author. Making a sweeping judgment on one year’s data not very insightful or reflective.
However in part the problem is the ‘over-promising’ from Brexit exponents. You get hung by your own petard if you exaggerate and mislead. We also should remember the growth data related to 2016-21 is when we were still in the Single Market. The signs on Growth are not good subsequently and fact we had quite an increase immediately post pandemic was to be expected. Problem is our economy remains smaller than pre pandemic and that makes us an outlier. And we’re Britain – we should be miles better than this.
We should also not hide how Brexit has been a massive distraction from what we needed to focus on for the future. It’s also been making the Right fail to properly reflect on what is wrong with our economic model. All their eggs have been in this basket. It’s masked the inherent contradictions between what the Red Wall Tories might want and what the small ‘Staters’ want. Johnson held this contradiction together with bluster and bravado but eventually it was going to unravel. Truss and Kwateng weren’t wrong about needing re-energise Growth just they had the wrong solution – tax cuts rather than industrial & educational investment.
No country was hit harder by the 2008 financial crises than Ireland. Yet it is now at the top of the growth ladder. We had the same Covid and have the same problems as GB with the major difference that we didn’t exit the EU.. so nice try but doesn’t wash. Furthermore, NI is doing really well though staying within the Single Market and Customs Union. What more evidence do you need?
Didn’t someone recently tell you that it was the hated Brits that bailed your Banks out during that crisis. Northern Ireland gets more Westminster funding per person than the English under the Barnett formula. A lot of Government departments have moved there too.
Didn’t someone recently tell you that it was the hated Brits that bailed your Banks out during that crisis. Northern Ireland gets more Westminster funding per person than the English under the Barnett formula. A lot of Government departments have moved there too.
No country was hit harder by the 2008 financial crises than Ireland. Yet it is now at the top of the growth ladder. We had the same Covid and have the same problems as GB with the major difference that we didn’t exit the EU.. so nice try but doesn’t wash. Furthermore, NI is doing really well though staying within the Single Market and Customs Union. What more evidence do you need?
The report I heard on the Today program quite clearly cited Brexit as one of several factors responsible for the IMF report. There was nothing hysterical about it at all.
Brexit was an act of ideology over reason; it is important to continue highlighting the damage it has caused.
You believe the principle of national demoractic sovereignty to be an ideology?
Most people who voted in the referendum would probably struggle to define ‘national democratic sovereignty’. As for the 52%, they heard the dog whistle nonsense of the leave campaign and voted with them to stick it to Cameron and the various scapegoats being dangled in front of their noses.
Most people who voted in the referendum would probably struggle to define ‘national democratic sovereignty’. As for the 52%, they heard the dog whistle nonsense of the leave campaign and voted with them to stick it to Cameron and the various scapegoats being dangled in front of their noses.
I suspect the BBC didn’t supply you with a quantified breakdown of how significant each of the “several factors” were.
If the BBC ever become an organisation that does this – as well as also scrutinising the data critically and objectively – then they may be worth listening to.
I would suggest that you shouldn’t hold your breath until that happens …
“If the BBC ever become an organisation that does this – as well as also scrutinising the data critically and objectively – then they may be worth listening to.”
They do on ‘More or Less’ and ‘The Briefing Room’. (Radio 4)
‘More or Less’ tackled a portion of the Brexit fallout debate on this morning’s programme with Thomas Sampson from the LSE. Trade pre and post Brexit to the EU and the world. A bit more complicated (as usual) than most commentators seem to be ready, willing or able to get their heads around.
Thomas Sampson reckons it will take 8 years before a proper accounting can be done which sounds in the ball park to me.
Enjoy.
8 years (2028) sounds about right to me.
we should have enough data by then for people to weigh up how the changes in the economy (good or bad) can be compared to the democratic gain.
Its a shame that the staff on Newsnight don’t appear to share Mr Sampsons conclusions.
8 years? Was this said during the campaign? ‘Give us 8 years and you can maybe have that money for the NHS we said on the side of Red Bus’ was not a slogan anyone recollects.
Nonetheless ‘More or Less’ is a fantastically good programme. If only more folks listened to it. And would you believe it, it’s made by the BBC.
8 years? Was this said during the campaign? ‘Give us 8 years and you can maybe have that money for the NHS we said on the side of Red Bus’ was not a slogan anyone recollects.
Nonetheless ‘More or Less’ is a fantastically good programme. If only more folks listened to it. And would you believe it, it’s made by the BBC.
8 years (2028) sounds about right to me.
we should have enough data by then for people to weigh up how the changes in the economy (good or bad) can be compared to the democratic gain.
Its a shame that the staff on Newsnight don’t appear to share Mr Sampsons conclusions.
“If the BBC ever become an organisation that does this – as well as also scrutinising the data critically and objectively – then they may be worth listening to.”
They do on ‘More or Less’ and ‘The Briefing Room’. (Radio 4)
‘More or Less’ tackled a portion of the Brexit fallout debate on this morning’s programme with Thomas Sampson from the LSE. Trade pre and post Brexit to the EU and the world. A bit more complicated (as usual) than most commentators seem to be ready, willing or able to get their heads around.
Thomas Sampson reckons it will take 8 years before a proper accounting can be done which sounds in the ball park to me.
Enjoy.
I would suggest that biased MSM reporting on this topic is the real “act of ideology over reason”
It is not a question of ideology. The question is one of democracy.
This was a democratic vote by a majority in answer to a question that they had been asked.
Those who asked the question did not expect or like the answer and so they have tried ever since to undermine, to sabotage, and to reverse the democratic vote of the population.
That is deeply wrong.
It’s an interesting take on democracy when blatant lies are used to manipulate the electorate.
It’s an interesting take on democracy when blatant lies are used to manipulate the electorate.
This is to miss the point Kevin.
The losers in the democratic process will continue to attribute problems to the decision that was taken. Also they will continue to claim that people have “changed their mind.”
These are both completely irrelevant, regardless of whether or not they are true. Throughout history the country has made decisions, and has and has lived with the outcomes. That is how the democratic process works.
The point is that this was a democratic decision which was requested. And those who requested that decision, when they did not like the answer, have tried to sabotage and reverse it.
That is unforgivable.
You’re repeating the fallacy that democracy and debate stops after a Vote. Democracy then requires accountability and delivery of promises too. And if you don’t deliver you risk the Public changing their mind about you and having the choice to give others a go instead.
We’ll be debating and arguing about Brexit for years to come. Just accept it. It’s healthy and it reflects democracy. Brexiteers argue amongst themselves what it was supposed to lead to too.
I’m always impressed when I read back on how WSC handled Parliamentary debate and even votes of confidence during WW2. Democracy was not closed down despite massive existential threat. He was massively respectful of it. That is a precious legacy.
Thinking back to when I decided how to vote in that referendum, I was pretty much convinced that neither side could truthfully predict the economic consequences because there were so many unknowns, so it would be silly to vote for promised economic benefits; but what was absolutely clear was that under the existing arrangements democracy was being continually undermined, so my duty to future generations was to preserve and recover parliamentary sovereignty. So far parliament has failed to produce effective leaders on either side, but while we have sovereignty we can still have hope.
Different voters will have had different reasons for the way they cast their vote. Many will have regarded short or medium term predictions about economic consequences for good or ill as pie in the sky – there were far too many unknowns to take predictions seriously. Many of us cast our vote as we did because we were deeply uneasy about the democratic deficit of how “ever closer union” was being achieved, and this was the last chance to say “enough is enough”,
You’re repeating the fallacy that democracy and debate stops after a Vote. Democracy then requires accountability and delivery of promises too. And if you don’t deliver you risk the Public changing their mind about you and having the choice to give others a go instead.
We’ll be debating and arguing about Brexit for years to come. Just accept it. It’s healthy and it reflects democracy. Brexiteers argue amongst themselves what it was supposed to lead to too.
I’m always impressed when I read back on how WSC handled Parliamentary debate and even votes of confidence during WW2. Democracy was not closed down despite massive existential threat. He was massively respectful of it. That is a precious legacy.
Thinking back to when I decided how to vote in that referendum, I was pretty much convinced that neither side could truthfully predict the economic consequences because there were so many unknowns, so it would be silly to vote for promised economic benefits; but what was absolutely clear was that under the existing arrangements democracy was being continually undermined, so my duty to future generations was to preserve and recover parliamentary sovereignty. So far parliament has failed to produce effective leaders on either side, but while we have sovereignty we can still have hope.
Different voters will have had different reasons for the way they cast their vote. Many will have regarded short or medium term predictions about economic consequences for good or ill as pie in the sky – there were far too many unknowns to take predictions seriously. Many of us cast our vote as we did because we were deeply uneasy about the democratic deficit of how “ever closer union” was being achieved, and this was the last chance to say “enough is enough”,
Yes was balanced.
Brexiteers don’t like any potential association with our international position if it’s not glowing so fingers probably went in ears at that point, but in fact BBC also flagged that IMF forecasts often prove inaccurate.
You believe the principle of national demoractic sovereignty to be an ideology?
I suspect the BBC didn’t supply you with a quantified breakdown of how significant each of the “several factors” were.
If the BBC ever become an organisation that does this – as well as also scrutinising the data critically and objectively – then they may be worth listening to.
I would suggest that you shouldn’t hold your breath until that happens …
I would suggest that biased MSM reporting on this topic is the real “act of ideology over reason”
It is not a question of ideology. The question is one of democracy.
This was a democratic vote by a majority in answer to a question that they had been asked.
Those who asked the question did not expect or like the answer and so they have tried ever since to undermine, to sabotage, and to reverse the democratic vote of the population.
That is deeply wrong.
This is to miss the point Kevin.
The losers in the democratic process will continue to attribute problems to the decision that was taken. Also they will continue to claim that people have “changed their mind.”
These are both completely irrelevant, regardless of whether or not they are true. Throughout history the country has made decisions, and has and has lived with the outcomes. That is how the democratic process works.
The point is that this was a democratic decision which was requested. And those who requested that decision, when they did not like the answer, have tried to sabotage and reverse it.
That is unforgivable.
Yes was balanced.
Brexiteers don’t like any potential association with our international position if it’s not glowing so fingers probably went in ears at that point, but in fact BBC also flagged that IMF forecasts often prove inaccurate.
The report I heard on the Today program quite clearly cited Brexit as one of several factors responsible for the IMF report. There was nothing hysterical about it at all.
Brexit was an act of ideology over reason; it is important to continue highlighting the damage it has caused.