January 31, 2023 - 11:40am
When Nigel Farage decided to rechristen the Brexit Party as Reform UK in January 2021, many people saw this as a rare error from a canny political strategist and campaigner. In one sweep, his nascent party appeared to lose its branding, its raison d’être and — in March 2021 — its leader, when Farage himself stepped down.
That decision does not look so foolish today. Polling from Focaldata for UnHerd this week, the most detailed since 2019, shows how most of the country now believes it was wrong to leave the EU. Based on the findings, we see that ‘Bregret’ has risen faster among older voters and in many of the poorer areas that voted to leave in 2016. Perhaps more interesting, though, is the large minority, 29%, of Reform UK supporters now saying that Britain was wrong to leave the EU.
This change in attitude to Brexit is significant, and encompasses voters from Hartlepool to Clacton where Reform UK and its antecedents have long prospered. In June 2016, 5% of UKIP voters voted to remain in the EU, but today, nearly one in three Brexit Party/Reform UK supporters expressed at least some Bregret. This is a noteworthy shift in the nature of support for the party to the Conservatives’ Right.
The idea that the general gloom and doom surrounding Brexit provides ripe conditions for Farage, Mr Brexit himself, to re-enter the political fray is counter-intuitive. Yet there remains a broad expectation in Westminster that Rishi Sunak should be very worried by the possibility of a surge for Reform UK. The rump of voters that are keeping the Conservative Party (just about) still in the game are much older and more concerned about high tax rates than the 2019 coalition the party held together.
If Sunak loses those voters who remain in the fold, it could mean a wipe-out for the Tories. That hypothetical risk could become an existential danger if Farage — who is, by the way, two years younger than Keir Starmer — really does decide 2023 is the year for his third and final act in British politics.
Key to how Farage might navigate this new terrain is that, while the referendum used to be the great divider in British politics, the idea that the result has not delivered what was initially promised now appears to be something approaching a consensus. A very British sense of disillusion that unites those who think Brexit was a terrible idea to begin with, and those who think it was a great idea executed badly. In turn, this could lay the groundwork for a Reform UK general election campaign: a populist appeal to get a grip on illegal immigration, reduce unspecified regulation and lower taxes. Brexit without the Brexit, in other words.
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SubscribeThe morning after the referendum I picked up a mate to go and play golf. A committed Europhile he was in tears (he now lives in Germany).
I remember saying “Not to worry, probably would never happen anyway”.
And where are we now? Well technically “left” but in a way that really did not follow the spirit of a referendum. I agree with Daniel Lee that the slow walk of remainers has left us with an odd situation.
The first time in my life that any voting really was “one man, one vote”, everyone’s vote counted the same (not counting the 1975 confirmatory referendum as this was a real fudge in my view).
And then money, vested interests, power, media all decided that one man, one vote was a silly idea and really didn’t count as “people didn’t know what they were voting for”.
And May really didn’t have her heart in any sort of leaving and then………..
We are where we are. What a mess.
Why not go all the way – rejoin, get rid of the pound and be happy ever after. Oh, and very, very bored.
after 12 years of the Tory disasters I’m looking foreward to being bored and ruled by honest competents, you know like Norway, Swtizerland etc
after 12 years of the Tory disasters I’m looking foreward to being bored and ruled by honest competents, you know like Norway, Swtizerland etc
I too had precisely the same feeling as you apparently did: that, for the first time ever, my tiny, isolated, personal vote really counted. It was unlike anything I’ve ever experienced in general and local elections, before and since. In the 2016 Brexit referendum my vote really did matter and gave me a democratic ‘ticket’ that carried weight. For this reason I decided that I would unequivocally respect the democratically validated outcome of the referendum, whether it was LEAVE or REMAIN.
But, as you rightly averred, the Woking Class elite with its “money, vested interests, power and media” decided that the process of true democracy, represented by the impact of the “little people’s” individual votes in that referendum, was abhorrent. The ‘One Man, One Vote’ principle that this class supported in Africa in the 1960s and 1970s was good enough for those remote populations, but not apparently for the UK electorate half a century later. The Woking Class hurled everything that they could (including extreme and offensive online abuse) at ‘Leavers’ to destroy, undermine and dilute the Brexit result, with the BBC leading the field, then and now. It is their contempt for democracy that has left Brexit in tatters and Britain in an unfathomable mess today: illegal immigration out of control, an NHS that is broken and laws increasingly made or determined by unelected judiciaries, in the UK, The Hague and Strasbourg, that have strangled and reduced the human rights of the majority in favour of minorities. Apart from QE2’s magnificent funeral, there is little or nothing about which to feel good in recent years – except for the stunning outcome of the Brexit referendum, no matter how it has been trashed since.
To say that I am utterly disillusioned with our so-called ‘British democracy’ would be an understatement!
Good luck to Brexiters
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/uk-levelling-up/brexit-three-years-after.html
Good luck to Brexiters
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/uk-levelling-up/brexit-three-years-after.html
“the spirit of a referendum”
we voted yes or no, nothing about detail
But the devil is always in the detail, if you can call £350 million a week for the NHS a ‘detail’. It was that kind of detail that persuaded an angry, baffled population that something radical could be done, and had to be done, mainly about immigration from cultures seen as inimical to British life and the perception that law and order was in danger.
The result is an excellent example what happens when one ignores ‘details’. No one ‘sabotaged’ Brexit. The thing was inherently a disaster, but only a scrutiny of details could have cut through the lies, and the Remain campaign failed utterly to do so.
And, while we are at it, Farage has done so much damage to this country, that the prospect of him being free to do more is even worse than the awful vision of Boris getting back into power.
The increase in money given to the NHS since the Referendum actually exceeds £350 a week
The increase in money given to the NHS since the Referendum actually exceeds £350 a week
But the devil is always in the detail, if you can call £350 million a week for the NHS a ‘detail’. It was that kind of detail that persuaded an angry, baffled population that something radical could be done, and had to be done, mainly about immigration from cultures seen as inimical to British life and the perception that law and order was in danger.
The result is an excellent example what happens when one ignores ‘details’. No one ‘sabotaged’ Brexit. The thing was inherently a disaster, but only a scrutiny of details could have cut through the lies, and the Remain campaign failed utterly to do so.
And, while we are at it, Farage has done so much damage to this country, that the prospect of him being free to do more is even worse than the awful vision of Boris getting back into power.
Why not go all the way – rejoin, get rid of the pound and be happy ever after. Oh, and very, very bored.
I too had precisely the same feeling as you apparently did: that, for the first time ever, my tiny, isolated, personal vote really counted. It was unlike anything I’ve ever experienced in general and local elections, before and since. In the 2016 Brexit referendum my vote really did matter and gave me a democratic ‘ticket’ that carried weight. For this reason I decided that I would unequivocally respect the democratically validated outcome of the referendum, whether it was LEAVE or REMAIN.
But, as you rightly averred, the Woking Class elite with its “money, vested interests, power and media” decided that the process of true democracy, represented by the impact of the “little people’s” individual votes in that referendum, was abhorrent. The ‘One Man, One Vote’ principle that this class supported in Africa in the 1960s and 1970s was good enough for those remote populations, but not apparently for the UK electorate half a century later. The Woking Class hurled everything that they could (including extreme and offensive online abuse) at ‘Leavers’ to destroy, undermine and dilute the Brexit result, with the BBC leading the field, then and now. It is their contempt for democracy that has left Brexit in tatters and Britain in an unfathomable mess today: illegal immigration out of control, an NHS that is broken and laws increasingly made or determined by unelected judiciaries, in the UK, The Hague and Strasbourg, that have strangled and reduced the human rights of the majority in favour of minorities. Apart from QE2’s magnificent funeral, there is little or nothing about which to feel good in recent years – except for the stunning outcome of the Brexit referendum, no matter how it has been trashed since.
To say that I am utterly disillusioned with our so-called ‘British democracy’ would be an understatement!
“the spirit of a referendum”
we voted yes or no, nothing about detail
The morning after the referendum I picked up a mate to go and play golf. A committed Europhile he was in tears (he now lives in Germany).
I remember saying “Not to worry, probably would never happen anyway”.
And where are we now? Well technically “left” but in a way that really did not follow the spirit of a referendum. I agree with Daniel Lee that the slow walk of remainers has left us with an odd situation.
The first time in my life that any voting really was “one man, one vote”, everyone’s vote counted the same (not counting the 1975 confirmatory referendum as this was a real fudge in my view).
And then money, vested interests, power, media all decided that one man, one vote was a silly idea and really didn’t count as “people didn’t know what they were voting for”.
And May really didn’t have her heart in any sort of leaving and then………..
We are where we are. What a mess.
There have been 7 years of concerted sabotage of Brexit by parliament, by government, by the media, and the whole rotten establishment. If Nigel Farage were to stand with Reform, I think he would do very well.
At the very least he would, once again, probably influence the Conservatives briefly into something like their former political position.
The problem is now, that we know we can’t trust the Conservatives to maintain any such position. The Conservatives have to go now. The betrayal has been too great.
There have been 7 years of concerted sabotage of Brexit by parliament, by government, by the media, and the whole rotten establishment. If Nigel Farage were to stand with Reform, I think he would do very well.
At the very least he would, once again, probably influence the Conservatives briefly into something like their former political position.
The problem is now, that we know we can’t trust the Conservatives to maintain any such position. The Conservatives have to go now. The betrayal has been too great.
Jeez Unherd consolidates it’s MSM position as calling Brexit a failure after 3 years.
No one thought it would be a success for 10-15 years, and it’s incredibly disappointing that the intelligent journalists of Unherd are jumping on the short termist news media bandwagon declaring it a failure already.
Jeez Unherd consolidates it’s MSM position as calling Brexit a failure after 3 years.
No one thought it would be a success for 10-15 years, and it’s incredibly disappointing that the intelligent journalists of Unherd are jumping on the short termist news media bandwagon declaring it a failure already.
We still haven’t left because the Tories true to form betrayed their voters again. I voted to leave the EU but didn’t trust the Pro EU Tory party to oversee the exit.
We still haven’t left because the Tories true to form betrayed their voters again. I voted to leave the EU but didn’t trust the Pro EU Tory party to oversee the exit.
Remain would have meant subservience to Germany, it’s energy and foreign policy, and entaglement with Russia, because they underwrite the profligacy of the growing group of unproductive and heavily indebted members.
The UK tried to form a counterbalance, with occasional support from some northern members, but too much of the EU is addicted to the German economic motor and it’s fiscal support. We would have been increasingly marginalised, and as Brexiteers rightly perceived, bullied by France and Germany who like to see themselves as the primus inter pares of members.
No, staying in was not an option. The road ahead will be a difficult one, but for those who believe in the ability of the British people to reinvent themselves apart from the bureaucratic morass of Brussels, this is an opportunity. Seize it.
Remain would have meant subservience to Germany, it’s energy and foreign policy, and entaglement with Russia, because they underwrite the profligacy of the growing group of unproductive and heavily indebted members.
The UK tried to form a counterbalance, with occasional support from some northern members, but too much of the EU is addicted to the German economic motor and it’s fiscal support. We would have been increasingly marginalised, and as Brexiteers rightly perceived, bullied by France and Germany who like to see themselves as the primus inter pares of members.
No, staying in was not an option. The road ahead will be a difficult one, but for those who believe in the ability of the British people to reinvent themselves apart from the bureaucratic morass of Brussels, this is an opportunity. Seize it.
Wasn’t Britain the country that almost immediately after WWII booted from office the man who essentially rescued them from joining the rest of Europe under the thumb of Nazi despotism? The nation seems to have a habit of discarding today what they loved yesterday. It seems the Remainers who despite the referendum insisted they had the right and even the duty to slow-walk Brexit until the British inevitably changed their minds were right on target.
What singlehanded Churchill won the war? ha >
no, lots of good reasons he was booted out
https://www.military-history.org/feature/5-key-reasons-churchill-lost-the-1945-general-election.htm
What singlehanded Churchill won the war? ha >
no, lots of good reasons he was booted out
https://www.military-history.org/feature/5-key-reasons-churchill-lost-the-1945-general-election.htm
Wasn’t Britain the country that almost immediately after WWII booted from office the man who essentially rescued them from joining the rest of Europe under the thumb of Nazi despotism? The nation seems to have a habit of discarding today what they loved yesterday. It seems the Remainers who despite the referendum insisted they had the right and even the duty to slow-walk Brexit until the British inevitably changed their minds were right on target.
Everybody is wishing one of two things: we should rejoin Europe and be happy for ever or we should stay out of Europe and be happy for ever.
The UK has a choice. We can give up being in charge of our own destiny or we can find a destiny of our own. Nobody has any ideas about the latter choice. Therefore, by default, we have no choice (do we?).
All of the history in the world will not create a destiny. BJ is swanning around talking about fighting Russia but that seems less than wise. What can the UK do in the future in order to be successful? What can we manufacture? Banking is only for London and doesn’t solve the problem.
Tourism? I would suggest that the way things are going, the UK will have one of the best climates in the world.
Gambling – how about the biggest casino outside of the USA, situated smack-bang in the middle of Wales?
My own belief, as power costs increase inexorably, is that we should be using our tides to generate electricity. This was put off previously for (official reason) the unit cost would be too high. The unofficial reason is that the Welsh Assembly does not want support from Westminster because, ultimately, Wales will be in position to sell the power back to England.
Everybody is wishing one of two things: we should rejoin Europe and be happy for ever or we should stay out of Europe and be happy for ever.
The UK has a choice. We can give up being in charge of our own destiny or we can find a destiny of our own. Nobody has any ideas about the latter choice. Therefore, by default, we have no choice (do we?).
All of the history in the world will not create a destiny. BJ is swanning around talking about fighting Russia but that seems less than wise. What can the UK do in the future in order to be successful? What can we manufacture? Banking is only for London and doesn’t solve the problem.
Tourism? I would suggest that the way things are going, the UK will have one of the best climates in the world.
Gambling – how about the biggest casino outside of the USA, situated smack-bang in the middle of Wales?
My own belief, as power costs increase inexorably, is that we should be using our tides to generate electricity. This was put off previously for (official reason) the unit cost would be too high. The unofficial reason is that the Welsh Assembly does not want support from Westminster because, ultimately, Wales will be in position to sell the power back to England.
Vague aspersions about not meeting the ‘spirit of Brexit’ or something just don’t cut the mustard. Despite the long constitutional crisis, and an undoubted attempt to prevent Brexit by forcing a second referendum (which by the way, a certain Mr Farage once favoured!) the UK as a whole did leave the EU 3 years ago, on what would have been once called a pretty ‘hard’ basis. The exception was Northern Ireland, which nonetheless still left the EU, and frankly, how many British voters cared all that much about them?!
That was all the referendum vote was about; we were not voting for any positive set of arrangements with our European neighbours, still less about a deregulation and supply side reforms, or whatever some Brexiteers have convinced themselves meant Brexit, and which would definitely not been a priority for – of even wanted by – Red Wall voters. The recent chaotic verging on incompetent government – a national embarrassment – can’t really be blamed on Remainers, who had been largely purged, or the EU. Some of this was not the government’s fault, as with the pandemic, it is difficult to argue that none of it was.
Brexiteers were divided on what they wanted to achieve or prioritise – especially free market reforms versus reducing immigration (which business rather likes as a whole). They were also cavalier (to put it mildly) about how easy it would be to leave an economic and political union we had been members of for 40 years.
Vague aspersions about not meeting the ‘spirit of Brexit’ or something just don’t cut the mustard. Despite the long constitutional crisis, and an undoubted attempt to prevent Brexit by forcing a second referendum (which by the way, a certain Mr Farage once favoured!) the UK as a whole did leave the EU 3 years ago, on what would have been once called a pretty ‘hard’ basis. The exception was Northern Ireland, which nonetheless still left the EU, and frankly, how many British voters cared all that much about them?!
That was all the referendum vote was about; we were not voting for any positive set of arrangements with our European neighbours, still less about a deregulation and supply side reforms, or whatever some Brexiteers have convinced themselves meant Brexit, and which would definitely not been a priority for – of even wanted by – Red Wall voters. The recent chaotic verging on incompetent government – a national embarrassment – can’t really be blamed on Remainers, who had been largely purged, or the EU. Some of this was not the government’s fault, as with the pandemic, it is difficult to argue that none of it was.
Brexiteers were divided on what they wanted to achieve or prioritise – especially free market reforms versus reducing immigration (which business rather likes as a whole). They were also cavalier (to put it mildly) about how easy it would be to leave an economic and political union we had been members of for 40 years.
interesting to see that remainders see Brexit as a manifestation of British declinism and so do leavers.
interesting to see that remainders see Brexit as a manifestation of British declinism and so do leavers.
Britain was certainly wrong to leave the EU in the manner it was done.
The reality is that Brexit had to be carried despite overwhelming opposition and sabotage attempts from Briish ruling classes.
Bad Brexit is strictly bettter than no Brexit (or Brino)
Yup in 5-10 years we’ll be so pleased we made the decision to leave. Short termists can’t think that far ahead.
Yup in 5-10 years we’ll be so pleased we made the decision to leave. Short termists can’t think that far ahead.
The reality is that Brexit had to be carried despite overwhelming opposition and sabotage attempts from Briish ruling classes.
Bad Brexit is strictly bettter than no Brexit (or Brino)
Britain was certainly wrong to leave the EU in the manner it was done.
Brexit was borne of a sense that the world, and Britain’s place in it, wasn’t arranged in the way that Brexiteers thought it should be. But their attempts to re-arrange the world have proved – so far – to be in vain and it’s not as if we can send a gunboat to bend recalcitrant foreigners to our will… Anyway, maybe the world just can’t be re-arranged to suit the UK, whatever Farage promises?
Yes , Brexiters were and are stuck in some colonialist dream.
The Brexit vote to become ‘billy not mates’ has succeeded and we are seen as no longer relevant
They forget than since WWII the western world has moved to reduce problems between countries, be it trade, diplomacy etc through global institutions and rules: UN, IMF, IMO, UNHCR etc. Now the UK sits on its own as a minnow opposite the major powers of US EU and China
This attitude always amuses me. Most pro-EU fanatics are leftists and yet they yearn nostalgically for what they describe as our place on the “world stage”, our influence, and our power during the colonialist glory days of the EU.
Many of us who voted to leave actually want to stop trying to tell other countries how to live their lives and simply be a good neighbour, trading partner and friend to the rest of the world – outward – looking rather than inward – looking.
This seems to be entirely incomprehensible to the euro-loons
well stated.
Strange that. Who was banging on about ‘Global Britain’? Err, was it the Brexiteers?
well stated.
Strange that. Who was banging on about ‘Global Britain’? Err, was it the Brexiteers?
So does that mean that the brave soul who leaves their group (when they see it has become a gang and a bully, a force for evil etc) in an attempt to get rid of gangs and promote individual freedom is wrong. It will be a hard fight but if we don’t fight then before we know it either our gang will have been beaten or it will beat the others. Either way there will be war, disaster and, quite possibly, a New World Order.
This attitude always amuses me. Most pro-EU fanatics are leftists and yet they yearn nostalgically for what they describe as our place on the “world stage”, our influence, and our power during the colonialist glory days of the EU.
Many of us who voted to leave actually want to stop trying to tell other countries how to live their lives and simply be a good neighbour, trading partner and friend to the rest of the world – outward – looking rather than inward – looking.
This seems to be entirely incomprehensible to the euro-loons
So does that mean that the brave soul who leaves their group (when they see it has become a gang and a bully, a force for evil etc) in an attempt to get rid of gangs and promote individual freedom is wrong. It will be a hard fight but if we don’t fight then before we know it either our gang will have been beaten or it will beat the others. Either way there will be war, disaster and, quite possibly, a New World Order.
You could say the opposite. Brexit was also about being content with out own land and not trying to fix every other country’s problem, thinking we’re more important than we are by being in a special club.
How the insular EU fanatics, those “Little Europeans” yearn nostalgically for its imperialism, its colonies, and their slave-class of Eastern European nannies, cleaners, and drivers.
It’s okay guys. Let go of your safety net and dare to join the rest of us looking outward into the world…
Yes , Brexiters were and are stuck in some colonialist dream.
The Brexit vote to become ‘billy not mates’ has succeeded and we are seen as no longer relevant
They forget than since WWII the western world has moved to reduce problems between countries, be it trade, diplomacy etc through global institutions and rules: UN, IMF, IMO, UNHCR etc. Now the UK sits on its own as a minnow opposite the major powers of US EU and China
You could say the opposite. Brexit was also about being content with out own land and not trying to fix every other country’s problem, thinking we’re more important than we are by being in a special club.
How the insular EU fanatics, those “Little Europeans” yearn nostalgically for its imperialism, its colonies, and their slave-class of Eastern European nannies, cleaners, and drivers.
It’s okay guys. Let go of your safety net and dare to join the rest of us looking outward into the world…
Brexit was borne of a sense that the world, and Britain’s place in it, wasn’t arranged in the way that Brexiteers thought it should be. But their attempts to re-arrange the world have proved – so far – to be in vain and it’s not as if we can send a gunboat to bend recalcitrant foreigners to our will… Anyway, maybe the world just can’t be re-arranged to suit the UK, whatever Farage promises?
It’s possible – Farage is a cynical opportunist, and will hitch his wagon to anything, regardless of his own complicity in creating the issues he then rails about.
But isn’t he doing precisely what you’re imploring others to do, i.e. come up with ideas and potential solutions to the problems that ail us? I’d have thought you’d welcome his input.
I sometimes think that UnHerd stifles ideas. You have to say, “The Left is bad.” If you have an idea it is automatically bad. You are either a Remoaner (bad) or you think that Britain is still great (good).
I sometimes think that UnHerd stifles ideas. You have to say, “The Left is bad.” If you have an idea it is automatically bad. You are either a Remoaner (bad) or you think that Britain is still great (good).
Sounds like a perfect description of Sunak to me. The inflation arsonist posing as a fireman.
But I’m interested to know your view on how Farage was complicit in creating the issue of uncontrolled illegal immigration?
Before Farage, no politician talked about this topic ar at least made it a priority to tackle the problem. It was not mentionned in the press.
Therefore Farage is the cause of mass immigration, amiright ?
Before Farage, no politician talked about this topic ar at least made it a priority to tackle the problem. It was not mentionned in the press.
Therefore Farage is the cause of mass immigration, amiright ?
Distinctly possible.
Bloke was all for a Norway arrangement early on, and then switched to a harder version when getting outflanked.
Sorted out his daughters EU/German Visa’s I think too.
One suspects he’s making too much money now to risk getting elected to Parliament where he’d have to declare it all.
Heard he tweeted the other day too ‘bremoaning’ about Bankers moving to Milan. You couldn’t make it up.
But isn’t he doing precisely what you’re imploring others to do, i.e. come up with ideas and potential solutions to the problems that ail us? I’d have thought you’d welcome his input.
Sounds like a perfect description of Sunak to me. The inflation arsonist posing as a fireman.
But I’m interested to know your view on how Farage was complicit in creating the issue of uncontrolled illegal immigration?
Distinctly possible.
Bloke was all for a Norway arrangement early on, and then switched to a harder version when getting outflanked.
Sorted out his daughters EU/German Visa’s I think too.
One suspects he’s making too much money now to risk getting elected to Parliament where he’d have to declare it all.
Heard he tweeted the other day too ‘bremoaning’ about Bankers moving to Milan. You couldn’t make it up.
It’s possible – Farage is a cynical opportunist, and will hitch his wagon to anything, regardless of his own complicity in creating the issues he then rails about.