Georgian Dream shows little sign of wanting to cut Russia off economically, but its choice between the West and Russia is by no means a simple one. Geographical and demographic realities favour at least a degree of balance; Russia is Georgia’s second largest trading partner after Turkey, and its dominant market for key industries such as wine and tourism. This arguably puts Georgia in an impossible situation, as cooperation with the West or Russia becomes an either/or choice.  

The leaders of Georgian Dream are keen to point out that this dilemma is set against a real risk of war. Russian troops are stationed in breakaway regions just 40km from the capital Tbilisi — following the pro-Western protests, Russia ominously warned of “provocations” in those breakaway regions. Just this week, former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili declared that he had been poisoned.

Perhaps for all these reasons — coupled with dubious electoral and judicial reforms pursued by Georgian Dream — the widespread pro-Western sentiment behind last week’s protests doesn’t yet translate into a coherent political challenge to the current government. With opposition parties riven by their own controversies and historical baggage, there’s a sense in diplomatic circles that the country’s only realistic route towards an unequivocally pro-Western regime may indeed be a Maidan-style revolution. And there’s acknowledgment that given Georgia’s unique circumstances, such a revolution may be bloody. 

But with Russia already committed to waging war in the region, a “Maidan 2.0” in Georgia would carry enormous risks. Conditions exist for the Kremlin to claim justification for new military action. Russia has already portrayed these protests as an “attempt to change the government by force” orchestrated by the USA. Russian-controlled breakaway regions provide ready-made positions for a military assault at Tbilisi. And, crucially for propaganda purposes, Georgia hosts a large and unintegrated Russian expatriate community which has grown significantly since the war in Ukraine began. These people may be seen as ripe for “liberation” in another illegal war of aggression. 

In this context, onlookers hoping that unrest in Georgia marks the start of a Ukraine-style pro-Western revolution should at least consider that, while current ties with Russia are cause for significant concern, forced and sudden regime change could lead to another brutal war being unleashed by a cornered and jealous Putin.