by Freddie Sayers
Tuesday, 15
February 2022
Video
17:48

Louis Gave: What the Moderna share price reveals about vaccines

The financial markets have been underwhelmed by the data
by Freddie Sayers

Pre-pandemic, Moderna was a $9 billion company. But by the time Covid had spread around the world the biotech company’s value grew to $35 billion. Then came the advent of the vaccines, of which Moderna was one of the leading manufacturers, and the company’s net worth soared to an eye-popping $195 billion in September of 2021.

Given the large numbers of countries recommending boosters, one might expect the Moderna share price to keep rising. But, strangely, the opposite has happened. Since the end of November 2021, the company’s share price has actually been declining dramatically, falling from $368 to $147 at the time of writing.

Why might this be? And what does it tell us about the vaccines more generally?

I sat down with Louis Gave, a financial analyst and co-founder of Gavekal, a financial services firm based in Hong Kong. Gave noted that the markets had been ahead of politicians and even epidemiologists on the Omicron variant in terms of its lethality, but also evidently they had determined that vaccines were not the ‘silver bullet’ solution they were initially sold as. What may be taboo to say in political circles is more bluntly put when people are betting their money on the outcome.

Thanks to Louis for an enlightening conversation.

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J Bryant
J Bryant
4 months ago

Great interview. It’s interesting to see how Freddie mentioned right at the beginning that they had to be careful how they discussed covid vaccines because it’s a “sensitive” subject. Translation: youtube might cancel them if they’re deemed to be spreading “misinformation.”
One thing Pfizer and Moderna gained from these vaccines, in addition to massive short-term profits, is a vast pool of biological data about the effect of mRNA vaccines in humans. If I remember correctly, in exchange for putting Israel at the head of the line for its covid vaccine early last year, Pfizer was granted access to the complete health records of the Israeli population (Israel maintains a national database of citizens’ health records). That is a treasure trove for figuring out the biological effects of this class of vaccine.
I would love to know what Pfizer and Moderna have concluded from analysis of these huge data sets. Maybe we’re entering a new age of mRNA-based vaccines, cancer treatments etc, or maybe not.

Galeti Tavas
Galeti Tavas
4 months ago
Reply to  J Bryant

Pity it is not mentioned that how many cases a Nation/State/City had from Covid is inversely proportional to the amount of vaccinations (ones used by us anyway). All data shows this but for a few outliers that had some exceptional situation. A run through Worldometers https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And then click on the column header ‘tot cases/1 M pop’. This arranges all the countries in the world from most to least cases per million.

NOTICE, more vax, more cases – AND note Nation by race, the Western Nations worst, then the South/Central Americas, then Central Asia, ME, Africa. The Far East, had almost no cases. China – 74 cases per million, 3 deaths per million…..

This is an illness which targets some, but not others. Naturally this means it is amenable to:

Risk Stratification, the medical term which was 100% disregarded to force all to the one size fits all VAX. An obscene system where children are forced to vax, although the vax is a much greater risk to them than covid is, and especially if they have natural immunity.

Risk stratification enables providers to identify the right level of care and services for distinct subgroups of patients. It is the process of assigning a risk status to patients, then using this information to direct care and improve overall health outcomes.”

Covid happens to be a disease perfect for wrecking the West, as long as the Western Governments were complicit in using this disaster to make everything 1000X worse than it need be. Which they were. The Agenda is breaking apart now, though – if the MSM will keep showing the cracks we may be saved from the drive to The Great Reset.

Art C
Art C
4 months ago
Reply to  Galeti Tavas

If your numbers are correct then it would appear the vaccine industry is not unlike the panel beating business. In lean times you give a mate a crowbar & send him around the neighborhood to drum up a little business.

Jürg Gassmann
Jürg Gassmann
4 months ago
Reply to  J Bryant

The initial caution may be wider than just YouTube’s censorship – they are discussing market-sensitive information, and if you start getting onto lines of discussion of e.g. allegations of fraud, then you’re in legal liability territory.

Galeti Tavas
Galeti Tavas
4 months ago

hahaaa – classic intro from Freddy

“here on Unherd we are always looking for new and interesting sources of information – things off the beaten track that might give us some advantage over the establishment media,” “One area is the Financial Markets – normally I am pretty dismissive of them….”

!!!! Finance is ALL. Finance is Power, it is what has been the cause of all history, of everything, of the entire Covid SARS-2 Response (unless you still are so silly as to think it was about health) and the Trillions and Trillions of National Debt created and then passed onto the Global Elites; the Negative Real Interest – Inflation, about to cause vast starvation in the Third/Developing World, ending of pensions and savings, the coming Great Depression, and then One World Government under the Davos, WEF, where we own nothing but are happy…..

This is like the Bellwether saying ‘I have always been pretty dismissive of the whole – Wolf, Bot Fly, Abattoir thing – finding grazing, rain/sun, and discussion on if dandelions taste better than Mangel-wurzels to be much more important.’

Laura Pritchard
Laura Pritchard
4 months ago

Follow the money?! I thought the question of moving goal posts was particularly interesting with regards to investment trust. Goes to all forms of trust, it seems to me. Also thanks for the final question!

Aldo Maccione
Aldo Maccione
4 months ago

Aren’t the deviation in numbers, statistics, etc, more a product of the government’s attitudes to COVID and population “control” than true outcomes volatility ?

Bruno Lucy
Bruno Lucy
4 months ago

Another brillant interview……that is ruining my evening being loaded with Valneva shares.
thanks to the both of you for that !!!
The cherry on the cake Louis is that you might be right. Next winter will tell us how and if.
Refreshing to hear compared to the doomsday doctors like Hans Kluge of the WHO

Alan T
Alan T
4 months ago

Godot has appeared on the streets of Kiev.

Mike Fraser
Mike Fraser
4 months ago

worldometer figures currently give Israel 1047 deaths per million of population whereas South Africa is given 1611 deaths per million population which important figures need to be included in this discussion.

Jürg Gassmann
Jürg Gassmann
4 months ago

Good interview, well done.

Alex Stonor
Alex Stonor
4 months ago

Excellent. Economics & finance are paramount. I started getting the FT (aka The Vaccine Times), at the beginning of the pandemic and it’s been a great education about the importance of markets. I’ll wager that Moderna will keep its current, more plausible place in terms of profit. We were always told (by our economics lecturer), that prestige was as important in driving corporations as profit. Even if their vaccines are crap, they’ve made my folks happy and Moderna is a household name.