Are Trump's chances being under- or over-played? Credit: Mandel Ngan / AFP via Getty
“Herd mentality” may not bring an end to coronavirus, despite President Trump’s slip of the tongue, but the phenomenon is never more real than during election season. In the bubble of opinion pollsters, pundits and the commentariat, a conventional wisdom usually forms about what is going to happen — and it is often wrong. The trauma of the shock Trump victory in 2016, missed by most of the media and pollsters, looms large.
So what is the evidence about who is going to win in seven weeks’ time? Which way is the “herd” really facing? Currently the national polls show Biden ahead by 6-8 points; in the battleground states that will decide the election it’s closer, but he’s still solidly ahead. There’s a lot that can still happen, but in the coming weeks are the polls and media narrative more likely to be underplaying, or overplaying the chances of a Trump re-election? To find out, I spoke to some of the world’s leading experts — including one notable dissenting voice.
Watch the full interview below
Nate Silver runs FiveThirtyEight, perhaps the most famous polling website in the world; he faced a good deal of criticism after his 2016 eve-of-election model gave Hillary a 71.4% chance of winning the election (he’s keen to point out that this was lower than many other models — the New York Times had her at 85%, others at 99%). Right now, FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 24% chance of winning, and Biden is at 76%.
“It’s a weird election because it’s a little hard to diagnose exactly what the conventional wisdom is,” he tells me. “There’s a meme that everybody is overconfident on Biden, but in fact… people are quite cautious on Biden.”
“If you go to betting markets, they have Biden as only about a 55% favourite. To me that seems hard to justify, low on Biden. He is up by 9 points — he does have disadvantages like the electoral college but I don’t think that quite computes… When our model was released, everyone kind of nodded and said, ‘70% seems about right to me’ … So for better or worse, our forecast and the conventional wisdom are aligned.”
But not everyone in Washington sees it that way. Republicans tend to think that the conventional wisdom is, once again, under-rating the chances of a Trump victory. The pollster-of-choice for this view is Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group. He may be a contrarian voice, but he deserves to be taken seriously: he was one of the few in 2016 to correctly call the crucial Trump wins in Michigan and Pennsylvania. His polls show Trump narrowly ahead, and winning enough of the battleground states to secure a victory in November.
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SubscribeYou pays yer pollster and yer makes yer choice…’
I’m watching many of the podcasts from the US and even cuddly progressives like Bret Weinstein and Heather Heyrig think Trump will win. Interestingly, Rasmussen, one of the most accurate pollsters in 2016, had Trump ahead nationally this week by 2%. (They had him 8 points behind a couple of months ago).
This piece also fails to mention that various polls show Trump’s winning among Hispanics in Florida, and there is very good evidence that he will get at least, say, 15% of the black vote this time due to the efforts of Candace Owens and Larry Elder et al. (Polls consistently show Trump with an approval rating of over 30% among blacks).
There was even a poll in loonie-lefite Newsweek showing that 45% of gay men plan to vote for Trump. Another poll showed him equal with Biden in Minnesota, which as has been blue since 1972.
Then there’s the police. Various police organisations around the nation have endorsed Trump, which is hardly surprising given that the Democrats have been actively encouraging the rioting and looting. There are approximately 900,000 cops, at least the same amount of retired and ex-cops, plus their families. That’s about 4 million people and it’s hard to believe that a single one of them will vote for the Democrats.
On the other hand, Bloomberg is spending 100 million in Florida alone to try and beat Trump there, and of course the Dems are very skilled at fixing the mail in ballots.
So, anything could happen.
Thank you for this very interesting and thoughtful analysis. I have quoted it in my comment above.
This is reminiscent of 2016..when Most US pollsters had Trump trailing Hilary clinton,by 8 points…..If Trump Wins Globalism (that is Vulture capitalism & Socialists ie Blairism ,macron in France et al .) will really be in retreat..One sees the Antics of Remainers in Lords & Commons inc 30 Tories trying to thwart, Uk be able to police its Own Territorial Waters,and Borders (Irish treaty from 1921)..
The Democratic party’s embrace of unending, authoritarian mandates in response to the recent coronavirus have really turned me off to voting for Biden. I disagree with the lockdown response, and have jumped ship from the Democratic party (after 45 years voting straight party line)”and I’m not alone. Covid fear, the woke and cancel cultures, and critical theory, all seem to make up the new identity of the party.
There isn’t a responsible government on the planet that would do wrong by using “we can do better” as a mission statement.
But as you point out the current socialist activism isn’t about ‘doing better’.
It’s more like one of those quickie cooking tips: “America – You’ve been doing it wrong”
The Dems clearly weren’t (and didn’t think America was) willing to go that far Left or they would have picked Sanders to lead.
Their willingness to indulge a bit of anarchy as an election strategy may very well come back to haunt them as the appeasement mayors of Seattle and Portland have already discovered.
BLM is pollonium in the Democrass Party tea.
And it’s not as if they didn’t know that their ‘PC’-fascism was toxic already.
So basically, as with all polling, no one has a clue
The only way the Dems can win, as the only way Labour could win in the UK, is by cheating with the mail-in votes.
The left has lost all connection to their blue collar/working class roots and only appeal to middle class onanists and imported voters/immigrants who they can shower with free stuff.
Trump has annoying characteristics but anyone with a brain in America will vote for him and he’ll win on the day – whether the Dems and their lawyers and Obama judges cheat their way to mail-in victory is another matter.
The biggest mistake Trump (and Bozo in UK) made is not getting to grips with the reality that the left is no longer a political movement, but a criminal one. There is IMO room for a social democratic movement in an open society – people who want to achieve socialism by democratic means, and accept the outcome if the majority do not agree. There is no room for those who distain democracy and advocate arson, murder and race based violence. That said with the history of pork barrels, carpet baggers etc in USA and rotten boroughs, Gerrymandering in the UK the issue has cropped up round the whole of the political horseshoe over recent centuries.
SDP party(HQ in Glasgow) led by William Clauston is Moderate ,supports Exiting EU, but investing heavily in manufacturing, Fair taxes,Reviving high Streets ,and having A proper defence,border force…they are Centrists horrified at blm,Xtinction rebellion given media time..etc..
The SDP has a fantastic manifesto. I can agree with pretty much the entirety of their New Declaration :
https://sdp.org.uk/new-decl…
They need more airplay, in my view. Especially as Boris is, Brexit apart, pretty lamentable right now.
The media are so out of touch with the people it’s unbelievable. Not only will Trump win, but he’ll do it in Tsunami fashion. The silent majority want an end to this anarchy and lawlessness.
In a nutshell.
‘Tsunami’ is a more apposite word for the likely scale of the win than ‘landslide’.
Newsweek says Trump likes Rasmussen’s polling because they have a history of favouring him. I like Rasmussen because they have a history of getting it right.
Apparently Rasummusen tends to be more accurate because they poll ‘likely’ voters as opposed to ‘registered’ voters.
IMO, the election could very well end up being a national referendum on trust and depending on how voters define ‘trust’ the Dems could be in big trouble.
Do they trust the MSM?
The same MSM that said Trump would never get the nomination, would never get elected, and would cause untold economic and foreign policy disaster?
Do they trust the Dems?
The same Dems that blamed the Russians, the deplorables and abnormal sun-spot activity – everyone except themselves – for the Trump win?
That along with their MSM friends eschewed self-reflection in favour of a ‘don’t worry – we’ve got this’ campaign to get rid of Trump?
That blame Trump for being divisive and then align themselves with anarchists?
It’s a referendum of whether elected officials should support blackshirt thugs rioting and trashing your town, or that there should be properly enforced (and funded) law & order so that you don’t need to get out yer gun to help patrol your own street.
Tough call, that one, eh?
This is the daftest Democrass position they’ve ever managed to land ’emselves in.
Is there any point in having the election?
Here in America, “anything you say can and will be held against you” as far as the Democrats are concerned and everyone knows it. It doesn’t matter if the polling is a person or not. The pollsters are crazy to think we would tell a machine or a person we were going to vote for Trump.
Yes, the historian Victor Davis Hanson recently talked to a Hispanic cop who had been polled. The cop had told the pollster he was voting for Biden, but would in reality vote for Trump.
Another recent survey revealed that 75% of people sometimes lie when polled or surveyed. I, for one, often lie about my age, location, sexuality* etc just to screw them up.
*A recent New Statesman readers poll offered about 40 different options in this regard. The NS is, of course, beyond all parody. I can’t remember which one I randomly selected…
I applaud your mischievousness Fraser! I’ve never been polled but I hope I could match your gumption.
Stuff em: if a polling firm wants to make money out of my opinion and not pay me I won’t give them a damn thing of any value. And depending on my mood I might give them some opinions they very much don’t want:-
Cat’s have been running the interweb for too damn long now and it’s time someone took a stand! I mean look at Facebook and Twitter (and unherd?) for instance: it’s totally unethical what those furry lil buggers are putting us through. They are worse than the bloody mice! And those evil masterminds were bad enough before the “B” Ark stuffed everything up.
I’m not sure “herd mentality” as a suggested solution to Covid was a slip of the tongue.
There is every indication that Covid response is close to mass psychosis in which case Trump is revealed as a deep thinker.
As ever, the “liberal” mob leaders will no doubt underestimate his appeal. This is to his obvious advantage and make it more likely that we see him back.
I doubt that the polls will be far wrong immediately prior to the election, but that doesn’t mean that the polls won’t change over the next 6 weeks or so. They have a history of changing markedly in the months prior to the election, and indeed over the last couple of weeks there is an indication that there might be a shift towards Trump.
Furthermore one gets the impression that all the (supposedly depending on your view) bad stuff about Trump is already factored in, so yet more personal attacks or evidence of (again supposed) personality defects is unlikely to lose him more votes than it has already. On the other hand, Biden will be more exposed to the voters, there is increasing disquiet about the Democrats’ domestic governance, both in cities, in supporting riots and in blocking bills to ease the financial effects of Covid. And there’s the Durham report, should it ever come to light.
In short, if the polling remains as it has been by election time, Biden wins, but the Democrats have far more ways to lose support than does Trump, and it only takes around 3-4 points to swing the electoral college to Trump.
It’s all to play for.
The Durham Report won’t come to light because the MSM will suppress it and most people simply don’t understand it anyway.
What has come to light is something that most people will understand if they ever hear about. Namely, that Democrat mayors deliberately suppressed data showing very low levels of Covid infection arising from visits to bars and restaurants. Thus the bars and restaurants were forced to close down again or subjected to very tight restrictions. This was either a pure power trip, or done in order to trash the economy and make Trump look bad. Really, there is no evil to which the Democrats will not resort.
“The Durham Report won’t come to light because the MSM will suppress it and most people simply don’t understand it anyway.”
They can only suppress it to a certain extent. If a household name gets indicted, then they will have no choice but to report it.
In fact there are several investigations and court proceedings ongoing in addition to Durham – the Flynn case, the Maxwell case, the Assange case ““ which are due to come to a head in the coming weeks. The timing is interesting, to say the least.
Perhaps, and let’s hope so. But all that stuff is so complicated that most people just tune out – even though the wickedness involved was far worse than, say, Watergate.
Yes, but should a household name be indicted, the media will simply report it as yet another example of the shameful way that Trump is trampling, roughshod in Fascist jackboots, over the heroic servants of the people being martyred for trying to depose the usurper.
And….as Fraser has noted, most people will either not be able to understand the issue, or will not have much interest in spending the effort to, and will default to exactly the same views they held before the news broke.
The truth is as I see it is that the election is already won or lost. People know how they will be voting The only question left for the pollsters is who is lying about it the most.
here in bc the spike in covid numbers has been the direct result of visits to bars and restaurants. And health officials aren’t saying so in order to make Trump look bad.
I looked at a photo of Biden yesterday – think it was his Twitter pic – and just couldn’t envisage him as president. He’s a weak, weak candidate. As we all know, the only poll that counts is the election itself. When it comes to the crunch, I can’t see America going for him.
I viewed some fascinating footage of Biden from an earlier era; being caught out plagiarising (almost verbatim), and with extraordinary lack of judgment and political incompetence, the ideas and words of other leaders -Kinnock and Kennedy. Pundits at the time thought his career was dead and buried as a consequence, but he’s hung around. I can only think that this character trait (or absence of character in this respect), now exacerbated by his evident cognitive decline, is what makes him the perfect mouthpiece for those behind the scenes in his party to get their agenda across. There must be a ferocious behind the scenes battle to get access to and full control of him. There are so many wildly divergent views on the left in the Democrat party. He’s unlikely to be able to withstand the pressure -a mind that’s so divided and assaulted from all sides simply cannot stand.
Yes, I’ve seen that a few times. Plagiarising Kinnock!!! How mindless and desperate must you be to rip-off the Welsh Windbag?
Exactly. Even when Biden was in fine fettle he was a mediocrity and a blowhard.
Hi Julian. This is an interesting observation regarding Biden’s past transgressions. His feet were held to the fire and he suffered the consequences. But can you really disregard Trump’s flaws? He is an obvious liar. He has cheated on his wives. He has cheated his vendors. He ran a phony university. He will not release his tax returns. His narcissistic tendencies make all of his accomplishments the “greatest”. He never makes a mistake. He promoted the Birtherism fiasco, among other conspiracy theories. He is clearly dishonest and self promoting. You can dispute some of my contentions, but surely not all of them. I understand how a person will vote for Trump, accepting these flaws for pragmatic purposes, but to justify that vote because Biden has character flaws is a bridge too far.
Oh dear, you need to stop believing the MSM. No accusations of narcissism against Obama who named Obamacare after himself?
Wrong – Obama never called it that – the attack dogs of Fox News et al did.
Obama called it the Affordable Care Act.
Debates to Come on TV
,Will Harris be called in,?Still Trump will make mincemeat of her..I cant Understand Why Democrats Couldnt find a Sensible Candidate,Who didn’t approve of rioting by Environmentalists and blm??,
DM as usual spot on.
A recent example of our own erosion of common values was the events on 6th June this year (D Day) in Whitehall.
In less than 24 hours we had gone from the contentious figure of Colston being torn down to the desecration and vandalism of the Churchill statue, Cenotaph and Union flag. Again doubly vexing and worrying that it should happen on a usually solemn day in our calendar and not worthy of a mention in the MSM…
Viewing this from the UK I see little chance of Trump losing, without widespread electoral fraud. The MSM are as out of touch as they were for Brexit.
I foresee widespread voter fraud.
The Democrats are allowing mail-in votes to be received for several days after election day to still be counted, and if Breitbart is correct, they don’t even require evidence that the ballot has been posted before election day.
Another district is also preventing comparisons between signatures on ballots with signatures held on record.
If the Democrats can’t win by fair means, they’ll do it by foul means.
Trump is likely to win by a landslide, and this is forecast as a 95% chance by Helmut Norpoth, the political scientist and most successful predictor ever of US elections (25 right out of the last 27), and this he says is evident even from the results of the primaries — before the BLM blackshirt craziness took off.
The vote now essentially is for or against law & order, and either to precipitate or to head off civil war. It’s that stark. This is blindingly obvious even from the perspective of here in the
UK, and from what we know of the lengths US citizens will go to protect themselves, a landslide might be badly understating it.
Biden is so useless he beggars belief why he was selected unless as a stand-in for a serious contender if the Democrass party actually can find one come the election after this next one.
The idea that the ‘nice old grandpa’ act will cover the Left’s hatred towards the masses (the deplorables as you Americans refer to us) is no more likely to wash in the USA than it did over here in the UK when Corbyn got rumbled and trounced.
Just by looking at Joe biden and not hearing him speak gibberish, why would you vote for him?
His best days are decades in the past and this is the best the democrats could put forward as their candidate for president of the United States of America!
He should be sitting in a chair with a blanket over his lap drinking Coco.
After the election last year in the UK I believe that the working class in America will reject the democrats just as hard as we rejected labour.
Plus the democrats have yet again told us to accept conditions for our country they would never accept for themselves so good luck trump 2020, 4 more years
Joe Biden’s best days were never that good to begin with. He is a stunning mediocrity whom I haven’t taken seriously since 1988, before many of his voters were born.
I agree, and I truly hope he wins anyways.
Why, Karen?
Yes: why Karen? I’m surprised at how BLM have swung things back in Trump’s favour since I took my eye off the ball. It seems the consensus from the comments thus far is running strongly in his favour.
I’ve been comfortable with people telling comforting lies to pollsters for several years now in my part of the world. There is a good reason why the UK implemented the secret ballot to replace the drunken, disorderly routs paid for by local fixers where the candidates, 2 per constituency, were chosen by open outcry (if there was a contest) .
I said to an old friend a month or so ago, when I was in my cups, that I hoped Trump won, and if he did I was going get shitfaced, strip down naked at the totally Woke University next door to where I live and dance and sing to celebrate the gnashing of their teeth.
I have an African friend who does some work there too: I wonder if I could entice her to join me as I shake my poor old rump around the
apoplectic darlings – both mature aged and the youngsters.
However now my idle boast seems decidedly risky. But my mate is a good fellow (of the progressive description) so I’m sure he won’t hold me to my promise/threat.
One of the most laughable aspects of this election is the disparate treatment of the candidates by the press. A typical question for Biden: Nancy Pelosi says that Trump’s having Israel and the UAE sign a peace treaty was a cynical election “distraction.” Do you agree with Speaker Pelosi? Now that is the typical softball question that comes Biden’s way. The public laugh at that treatment. Let’s just say that Trump’s questioning by the MSM is robust.
The BBC Covid coverage has been a mixture of misreporting of government statements made minutes before, trying to ask gotcha questions rather than asking something sensible or just saying they did not need clarification, failing to investigate the strategy, statistics and actions of the government, and spreading doom laden panic at every opportunity. It offered a platform to every individual it could find who was unable to think for themselves so that they could complain that the government had not spelt out a plan for every person in the country (the schools were the worst, many seeming to expect the government to give each site instructions on how to cope with their particular buildings/circumstances) and took every opportunity to flaunt virtue signalling celebrities toeing the government line. No questioning of the narrative was promoted or allowed. |All this in a whiny, smug, self satisfied manner.
The appalling bias of its output prior to the EU referendum.
Its unthinking, posturing espousal of BLM, which it failed to apologise for when the true face of said organisation was exposed; its sycophantic worship of St Greta of the Apocalypse and failure to question, or allow questioning of the ‘man-made’ climate change agenda.
Its vilification of large numbers of its viewers/listeners who disagreed with its narratives. The vicious, tawdry nature of much of the ‘comedy’ output, (comedians did not used to be – overtly – left or right wing, they did used to be funny).
Its excessive promotion of diversity, unless it is diversity of opinion.
I could go on but I will leave it to others.
A once great institution, virtue signalling its way to destruction.
Get ‘woke’; go broke.
Edit: “St Greta of the Apocalypse”. It’s morning here, and I’m laughing so hard, coffee is drizzling through my sinuses!
Voters will be influenced – as in the UK – on personalities and not on record or achievements. Trump is disliked, as is Boris Johnson by – especially women – who see him as a philanderer and can’t see any further. Obama was a good orator, he could talk the talk but what did he achieve? If any president or prime minister’s private life was forensically examined, not many would come up as whiter than white. Enter left/right into the equation – I could never vote for the Labour party, so the Dems would be a no no for me – not sure if the same values apply in the US. Biden comes across as an old dodderer who struggles to know what day it is (he’s no Kennedy) but seems likely his female running mate is being set up to take over. My money would be on Trump, if for no other reason than Biden would be bad for the UK, he is already interfering in Brexit – – together with the harridan Pelosi – when he has no understanding of the Good Friday agreement, with him in the White House the ‘special relationship’ will be toast.
Mr Sayers’ article strikes me as a well-informed, thoughtful presentation of possibilities. And several of the comments on it make valuable contributions. I find Fraser Bailey’s analysis especially interesting; and agree with him that “anything could happen.”
One of the challenges faced by any analysis of this kind is that no amount of classification into groups, be it by socio-economic means, race, location, or whatever ” none of that can take into account the tendency of some categories of thought, and therefore of voter choice, to defy such classification.
I have several American friends who, like me, are Christians of an historically orthodox kind, but who do not necessarily fit comfortably into common categories such as Bible-belt, mega-church, this-or-that denomination and so forth. One of them is a backwoodsman from Pennsylvania; another is a very successful businessman based in Oregon; one is a successful classical musician from near Chicago; and so forth.
Additional to that, they share an inclination towards combining somewhat conservative social policies with fiscal policies that are essentially from classical liberalism (definitely NOT progressivism). Such people face a conundrum. Who represents that combination of classic liberalism and social conservatism? No party does; though individuals might.
All three of these people admitted to me, not long before the previous election, that they were going to vote for Trump. They were not Trump supporters; they found him very unlikeable; they were unsure of his abilities to govern wisely. Yet they found the prospect of President Hilary Clinton far more dismaying ” and the main reasons for their visceral reaction against her are still present in the current Democratic Party.
They had told hardly anyone of their voting intentions, for reasons that do not need to be spelled out. I have not asked them this time round; but I strongly suspect they, and large numbers of similar free-thinkers, will do exactly the same again, for the same reasons.
Martin,
Repellent as many of the character traits of The Donald are: like your friends I was so disgusted with Hilary she turned me on to him (though I can’t vote). I remember being so shocked with Hilary’s “deplorables” quip when she thought the cameras weren’t rolling: I’d slowly grown used to the drip-feed narrative that she was the brains of the partnership and Bill was just the charming clown. However I saw him address an adversarial gathering once, live, and the man was as sharp as a knife.
I wouldn’t invite The Donald home to come share a cup of tea with me, but in the current environment, which has been brewing since George Dubya stole Florida, I cannot see how stay-at-home taxpayers have any choice left irrespective of their colour or creed? They pay their taxes, their children attend physically unsafe schools to be taught that gender is volitional and old white males like their Dads are the bane of existence, angry masked morons are parading the streets carrying military grade assault rifles, senior police are being bullied into groveling to wash the feet of BLM elders while coastal cities burn, Coronavirus has everybody with an elderly relative scared and confused, the mainstream media has betrayed what little respect they retain, the universities and schools have been dumbed down to ensure that every child wins a prize “¦. they may not be able to read, comprehend and execute simple of written instructions but at least their self-esteem hasn’t been impaired by their 4 year bachelor degree!
And like your mates I am a quiet, undemonstrative Christian worried about how my tax is spent. But what is going on stateside at the moment has me worried: it has been a very long time since I did any reading and thinking about their Civil War, but anyone who is willing to risk a slide to such an terrible outcome should not be allowed to walk the streets unrestrained. They are a danger to everyone around them and quite likely to themselves too.
Thank you, Tom, for such a thoughtful and well-written response. I especially appreciate the way you balance personal feeling (e.g. that you “wouldn’t invite The Donald home to come share a cup of tea), against the appalling, factual absolutes (e.g. Hilary’s “deplorables” quip). And I would agree with you about Bill Clinton ” “as sharp as a knife”.
The points you raise in your last paragraph are indeed worrying, because things much more wide-ranging than domestic order flow from them. America is in danger of losing its place as the world leading power. Military or economic loss is one thing; but more worrying to me is the prospect of losing the moral leadership that was such a conspicuous aspect of its behaviour ” and because you too are a Christian, you’ll understand that such moral leadership does not imply consistently flawless judgement or behaviour. Britain held that role until World War II. So who will take over? Not one of the possible candidates gives me any hope.
Thank you!
Well… none of this takes into account the presidential debates due to commence in a week or so. These could be pivotal, potentially dramatically so.
Whatever the outcome it’s clear that America, and as a consequence the rest of the world, looks set for an extremely bumpy ride and likely a descent into some form of authoritarianism -be it on the left or the right. There is insufficient consensus for the electorate to feel that any authority has a good enough mandate, and, it appears, a lack of willingness, or ability, in the candidates to build that consensus.
My political preference is Trump because he at least is offering a vision that Americans could potentially unite behind -the divisive despair and resignation of the Democrats is not a good look.
No one is holding the centre ground at the moment, and as the poet says, when this happens, ‘things fall apart’.
yes, the debates are Trump’s last line of defense & could have great impact. However, i’m afraid the bar for Biden has been set so low (if he avoids gibberish he wins). That’s if they happen. Both candidates will be making ridiculous factual claims and either moderators will try to correct in real time to biden’s favor (whether correct or not as in 2016) or the corrections and fact checks will happen post debate, again all for Biden. Overcoming the MSM would be an incredible achievement.
Biden won’t debate Trump.
His handlers won’t let him. There’ll be some last minute excuse.
Or there’ll be questioning along the lines of:
“President Trump: how guilty do you feel about the hundreds of thousands of deaths from covid 19, and do you accept personal responsibility for killing all those innocent victims?”
“Vice President Biden: what’s your favourite colour?”
At this point an authoritarian regime might be pretty hard to establish. There were people in the streets showing their firearms to the authorities not long ago over being told they must wear masks.
That alone might be incentive, motive and ‘justification’ for someone to attempt to do it.
Like Governor Whitmer (D)?
Trump’s not an authoritarian, no matter how the communist left try to portray him.
In today’s daily Rasmussen poll, Trump’s approval rating is higher than Obama’s at this point in 2012. OK, it’s only one poll, but Rasmussen is generally the most accurate.
Forget about the polls. Look at the candidates. Watch their last five rallies. Listen to their last five interviews. Now which candidate is the next President of the United States? no contest.
Agreed -I was never a big Trump fan initially but there is no disputing his charisma, and more importantly his holding to an authentic and hopeful vision for the well being of the American people. He offers faith and hope. Biden’s ‘vision’ is degenerative and retrograde by comparison -I’m amazed anyone could buy into such a depressing message but there you go, and of course MSM is making sure these rallies are not really covered in any meaningful or truthful manner.
The BBC has an international following. In this case, in the American Deep South. Perhaps we might have some insight.
The writer rightly points out the Hutton Inquiry and the near evisceration of the Beeb. From that point it was on ‘borrowed time’. It has been reduced to ‘reporting’ whatever neoliberal claptrap the various power factions in Whitehall want. Period.
Before Iraq, anyone with any sense of proportion knew the Beeb was mainly a analog stenographer for the state. But, even then, the Beeb would feature back benchers or government contrarians who would point out the obvious excesses or contradictions of the government or opposition. Now, the ‘Corporation’ is a full blown social justice warrior with an almost AI bent toward to stenography. For instance, the way in which the BBC has demonized Julian Assange, both in its news’ and humorous programs, is despicable beyond all belief.
From a distance, the Beeb, like the NHS, is a lumbering, WW2 dinosaur hellbent on its own destruction while strutting around with some nostalgic pomposity. None of the ‘suits’ – how dare the writer use mostly male clothing as a metaphor 😉 – are going to give up their six-figure salaries.
It’s done. Finished. The writer could have saved himself a good deal of trouble and simply penned these words: The Shipping Forecast is the Beeb’s dirge. A very small portion of her will be missed.
how dare the writer use mostly male clothing as a metaphor
Yes, there would be hell to pay if he had said ‘dresses’
Haha. It looks like the ‘mother ship’, England, has completely lost it. I have never witnessed a more timid bunch of folks when it comes to their own language. Dozens of words have been ‘taken off the table’. Thousands of more terms and inferences have become verboten.
For instance, I always suggest people look up the word “racism” in the OED, the full, multi-volume 1st with supplements or 2nd edition. Look who coined it. And then consider the source! Then consider the societal implications of the originator.
Answer for the lazy. (It was Leon Trotsky.)
I don’t think you’re going to like the sonnet I wrote about Julian Assange:-
Sonnet 151 by Richard Craven
He’s to be scoped, the rapey narcissist,
athwart on camp-bed with a cigarette,
recalling ruefully his Swedish tryst.
It’s pretty gamey in that oubliette,
and latterly his visitors are few
and low status: just junior attachés
and interns. No more television crews
now camp beneath his balcony; that craze
of troubadour paying court to caytiff king
has passed. Now Julian’s the apostate,
there’ll be an end of virtue-signalling.
Let Cumberbatch and Gaga find new mates;
the creep will linger like a nasty smell
inside his Ecuadorian hotel.
Trump will win by a landslide. To quote Larry Elder, “we’ve got a country to save”.
The challenge for pollsters post 2016 reminds me of the Hofstadter’s law that declares everything takes longer to complete even when one takes into account the Hofstadter’s Law. They know they got this election spectacularly wrong (as with Brexit) and are getting the excuses in early. They really are unable to self-correct their previous biases as that would require them to move outside of their reference framework that cannot see such bias. Not their fault, but it is fun to watch them scramble to make their role relevant.
A week before Brexit vote, I left my Democratic London for a car ride to the East coast where the “deplorable reside”. All the posters (we don’t really do flags here, no idea either) were for Brexit whereas nothing in London. At that point I realised something was afoot.
So, I would look around at the enthusiasm that Biden can muster. The flags, car horns, crowds outside conventions and convince yourself Joe and the Harris Administration has the momentum.
I recently went on a road trip through Texas, New Mexico and Colorado. In rural communities, Trump / Pence election flags were everywhere and I didn’t see any large scale support for Biden. I predict a rerun of 2016 – Biden will win the “popular” vote but lose the electoral college.
I live in Southern Illinois, a hopelessly democratic stronghold itself, in a county were Republicans don’t much even bother to run for election. I have seen no Trump signs…as expected. It would be an invitation to minor vandalism here.
The other thing that I haven’t seen though, is any Biden signs. Just as in 2016 when I saw very few Clinton signs. That is weird in a state and county that has been controlled exclusively by Democrats for many decades.
In my experience the yard signs reveal a lot.
I have just been watching Michael Moore on The Hill/Rising. Apparently the local organizerss in Michigan are crying out for Biden yard signs but there aren’t any because…I can’t remember why – it was for some reason of the kind that only Democrats could come up with. Ah yes, because a lot of Biden signs would remind Trump supporters to vote!!! Apparently they applied this strategy in 2016 and lost the state…
So why don’t they make their own yard signs, you ask. Probably because they are lefties and therefore unable to do anything useful or practical.
Hilariously Moore also said that when Biden visited the state last week there were more secret service agents than steel workers when he met some steel workers, and they were all outnumbered by some noisy Trump supporters outside.
I found that in New Orleans on a long walk in 2016. Trump 1st, Sanders well back in 2nd,and Clinton almost invisible.
The BBC’s days are numbered.
The opinion polls get it wrong as often if not more often than they get it right. There is a self defeating prophesy effect about them. If you think your side is going to win comfortably you may intend to vote but if it is raining or something else crops up you don’t bother as you are going to get what you want anyway. If you think the only way to stand up against something you don’t want, even though it looks like you don’t stand much chance, then you will go out in the rain / defer that other thing and go and vote.
The other thing the polls cannot take into account is the impact of shock blunders. Hillary nearly collapsing had a significant impact. Trump blunders the whole time and people expect it. Biden is known to blunder too but so far has been protected by a biased media, but if he drops a massive clanger and the whole BLM thing is a minefield for him, then it is highly probable that ordinary Americans will see the disorder for what it really is ie a bunch of far left activists jumping on a bandwagon that is already rolling to cause trouble and Biden is passively if not actively supporting them and only Trump is prepared to take the hard action needed to stop it.
Don’t discount the progressive mutiny. I know many American progressives who told me they will sit this one out because they refuse to be held hostage between a Republican Party and a Lite-Republican one. If Biden was European, he would be considered as belonging to the centre-right, socially progressive but economically conservative. In reality, there is no left-wing party in the US.
The only Democratic candidate who stood a chance to beat Trump was Tulsi Gabbard, a war veteran who is both liked by progressives, centrist and conservative voters. However, on November 3rd, Americans will be forced to choose between a candidate who is crazy and one who is losing his mind.
In any case, whatever the outcome of the elections is, it will do nothing to change the toxic culture of Washington, the culture war, the ballooning debt, the nefarious influence of the military-industrial complex, the calcification of the ruling-class, and how the civic well-being was abrogated as rich power brokers elevated personal good over public.
The New Rome will fall, it is just a matter of time.
Netflix, Amazon Prime, YouTube, Talk Radio, LBC, Times Radio (and soon Times TV?) and even primarily print-based digital media like Guido Fawkes, Spiked Online and UnHerd itself are, together, taking ever-increasing chunks out of BBC viewing and listening figures. Why? Because they provide what viewers and listeners want and do so without the Corporation’s massive overheads, lumbering bureaucracy, doomed poll-tax funding model, institutional wokery and all the mistakes and misjudgements covered by the writer and many others. And it’s a myth that it is being deserted only by the young, as it is that it’s output is geared to the perceived tastes of the ‘elderly. My wife and I haven’t watched or listened to anything from the BBC for months and certainly not their news or current affairs output. Ditto for most of ITV and C4 for that matter. We don’t miss them and nor should anyone. The BBC won’t change. It is all but dead in the water. The government may lack the spheroids to defund it but increasing numbers of people are taking the initiative themselves and cancelling their TVL direct debits. The End is near!
The article does not mention another polling problem repeated from 2016, that polls are regularly oversampling habitual Democrat voters by a significant margin. It’s easy to assume this is due to political bias, but Anthony Wells of YouGov, in his UK Polling Report blog has noted a similar tendency in the UK referendum of 2016 and 2019 General Election. From his analysis of the detailed figures Mr Wells concludes it is because people whose political views are conservative are reluctant to take part in polls.
If there is any substance in that conclusion it could make a significant difference. It’s going to be interesting to watch the campaign unfold but I will not be risking any bets on the outcome.
and the only way to that effectively is to chop it up and sell it…..
The creative culture has all but disappeared…the whole model underperforms ie no longer talks to the audience…
Having them replace a few key posts will not solve the fundamental trust issue…not by a long way
Am coming to view “trust” as similar to money. Each time the MSM corporations are shown to have deceived the public; that “trust” is spent and gone. Each time they speak evidence and proper analysis: they accrue more “trust”. We are now in times where they are overdrawn and determined to spend like teenagers.
This article is based around pollsters. Years ago it became clear that the only reason they poll is to enable their paymasters to manipulate us plebs. So either put the phone down on them or mislead them massively. And then vote for real leaders with actual thoughtful convictions that they have the genuine courage to stand for.
I am sure Biden will win. I think most Trump supporters will accept that. But a sizeable minority of Dem supporters will not be calmed by a Biden win. As soon as it becomes apparent that Biden is not going to usher in a redistribution of money and housing, the protests will continue. In essence, the US society is doomed either way.
If you hate Boris, Brexit, and are bowing to the liberal knee benders then you also hate Trump. But of course, all kinds of excuses will be made, disclaiming the fact that you are biased. The man might be a d**k at times, but like Boris, thats what is sometimes needed.
If I were a democrat strategist, I am not sure I would want the presidency this time round. The fallout from the Covid response is far from over. For all but the most extraordinarily creative team, power is going to be a poisoned chalice.
This period feels like 1928-1930. Would you rather be Hoover in 1928 or FDR in 1932?
You may be right but somehow the world needs to be saved from Trump.
I think what people should realise is that the US is more akin to a centralised supranational structure and that the very intention of EU technocrats is to duplicate this. Consequently, polarities soon get out of control due to over connectivity.
China as a highly centralised supranational structure obviously keeps polarities at bay through authoritarian. India is beginning to have problems with its Hindu nationalism whereas Canada seems to have the balance between the Federal centre and the States about right and so polarities are better contained within more coherent State structures.
Britain is supranational too and due to over centralisation polarities also get abit out of control but I guess we are small enough to contain it, just about!
National polls are irrelevant in an electoral election. 10 swing states. 1/3 of voters make their mind up on Election Day. In the old days with landline calling, polling was probably more randomized and accurate? These days with a weird concoction of techniques and models, selection and modelling errors, make,as is evidenced by highly inaccurate polls around the world, the pollster profession an obsolete one.
It’s 90% bs….what, are they trying to say pollsters are not partisan? get real…
The economy could be an interesting factor.
The preliminary August numbers for U.S. unemployment rate by state just came out – https://www.bls.gov/web/lau…
There are some big differences between states, compared to the normal spread of unemployment rates between states, based largely on how fast various states are re-opening businesses. (There are also some states that are rough shape just due to an unfortunate mix of businesses. Nevada has the highest state unemployment rate at 13.2%.)
It’s tough to say how it will play out. February’s economy obviously isn’t coming back before the November election. Trump has consistently polled better on handling of the economy than his overall approval, however, and it’s often noted that overall voter perception of the economy is based on trend more than absolute level. In other words, are things getting better or worse?
Broadly speaking, Democratic governors locked down harder and were slower to re-open than Republican governors. (That’s not 100% the case. DeWine in Ohio, who is a Republican, locked down pretty hard and has upset many people with his slow pace of re-opening.) For anyone reading this who is a bit less familiar with the U.S., the overwhelming majority of decisions about business shutdowns, stay-at-home orders, in-person schooling, mask orders, etc. in the U.S. have been made by state governors or local mayors and school boards. Without going into too much detail, that’s the nature of the U.S. federal system and its separation of powers.
So, while largely but not completely breaking down along partisan lines, there are definitely people in certain states who are more or less happy with their governors. There are plenty of small businesspeople – R or D – who are very upset in states that still have big restrictions on business. Complicating that factor, however, relatively affluent suburban women – a group with whom Trump famously struggles – on the whole probably liked the shutdowns more than a lot of demographics. Even that may be shifting some, however, because a lot of them want to get their kids back to in-person classes, and not everyplace has opened schools.
Some few swing states to think about:
– Arizona, Republican Governor – 5.9% unemployment
– Florida, Republican Governor – 7.4% unemployment
Both are recovering relatively well economically, especially if we assess Florida keeping in mind that it has a big tourism economy. Given COVID and re-opening trends in both states, I think there’s a good chance that both states will be fully re-opened by Election Day. Will Trump get some benefit from his association with these governors?
– Michigan – Democratic Governor, 8.7% unemployment
– Pennsylvania – Democratic Governor, 10.3% unemployment
Both of these states have re-opened less, as seen in the unemployment numbers. Whitmer, in Michigan, stirred up a lot of anger with bizarre edicts during shutdown such as telling home improvement stores specific items that they could and couldn’t sell. (IIRC, building materials were OK but gardening supplies like plants and seeds were verboten). It’s very likely that the the people riled up by these orders were almost all Trump voters in any case, but (1) these states were both very close in 2016 and (2) there might be some anger as an additional motivation for these voters to go to the polls.
Anyway, I know it’s a long comment, so I won’t get into other states. Suffice it to say, however, that there’s a potential Trump campaign strategy to position Democrats as the party of “riots, long shutdowns, and no in-person school” that might have some interesting impact on the presidential election. (On the last of those, which is a state and local issues, Biden doesn’t even have much rhetorical room to maneuver because teachers’ unions are such an important constituency for Democrats.) The Democrats, of course, instead want to blame every U.S. COVID death on Trump. It could be interesting, a bit volatile in the polls, and rather ugly.
I don’t have the time to read David’s book, so am tentative in commenting on it. If we are talking strictly about professional jobs I would say that in the bureaucracy I am most familiar with Head played a substantial role in determining promotions, but other things also played a role. Sometimes this was Heart in the sense of a positive connection with colleagues and clients. Just as often it was the rewarding of lackeys and bullies and the punishment of original thinkers and whistleblowers. I had people promoted way above me who shouldn’t have been working in the civil service at all, although they might have been reliable at cleaning the floors or watering the plants, and I’m not even sure about that. To some extent, what I am saying may be special pleading, as I know my own interpersonal skills were often lacking, but I really think that when our bureaucracies reward people for other things beyond what’s in their heads, they reward them for the wrong things.
What you need from the top people are leadership and management skills coupled with knowledge and experience all of which are cognitive functions.
The chief nurse of an NHS trust (paid about the same as a consultant) might or might not have had a sweet disposition as she wiped patients bums, but that is not what she does now and is therefore totally irrelevant in her advancement to the position.
I’ve felt all along that the Dems have made a huge mistake by not going for a young, vigorous and reformist candidate. At one stage they had 4 such people but they went for Biden! He will perpetuate all that is wrong with the Democrats. I agree with Matthew Wilson. He looks barely alive, talks like a slowed down machine and acts just like the elitist Democrat he is. A disaster of another 4 years of a man with no intellectual capability and who rules through cunningly creating divisions awaits the World.
And did that great ‘intellect’ Obomber* bring the UAE and Israel to a peace deal? I would suggest that Trump has more capability across all areas than Clinton, Bush and Obomber combined
*He dropped so many bombs that in 2015 the US army actually ran out of bombs in the ME!
Or rather, the Democratic voters in the Primary elections, held to see who the actual Democrat citizens wanted to see representing them went for Biden. Why?…Because ordinary Democrats had no other choice. All of the other choices were of the young fireball reformist that you are calling for.
Look for many Democrats to vote for Trump…quietly if not secretly that is.
The only way Biden wins is if the Pelosi’s of the party can figure out a way to steal the election. And believe it… and for that they are working overtime. They already have over 800 lawyers deployed and ready to contest results and then there is the issue of millions of loose ballots being shipped around some Democratic states. No telling exactly where or when those will reappear.
You guys are brainwashed so prolly wasting my time but if you are hanging your hat on the legitimacy of ‘pollsters’ like trafalgar and Rasmussen you are in deep s”-