December 18, 2023 - 7:00am
Houthi attacks on commercial shipping vehicles in the Red Sea have now reached a critical point, with many global shipping companies stopping their vessels from moving through the area. The decision was first taken by Danish shipping giant Maersk and Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd, now followed by French company CMA CGM. The companies decided to cease passage through the Red Sea after the container ship MSC Palatium III was attacked by a Houthi suicide drone on Friday.
The situation in the Red Sea has been escalating for some time. Last month the Houthis, who control most of Yemen and are backed by Iran, seized the ship Galaxy Leader and imprisoned the crew. The Houthis said they would be targeting any ship linked to Israel in an act of support for Hamas. Since then, it appears that the group has broadened its net and is now trying to disrupt global shipping flows.
The Biden administration has been keen not to highlight the problems in the Red Sea, recognising that doing so would risk pulling the United States into what could become a regional conflict in the Middle East. The administration has also been ignoring increasingly frequent targeting of American bases in the region: recent reports suggest that since 17 October there have been 92 such attacks.
But the attacks on ships now clearly threaten to throw sand in the gears of global trade. The Bab al-Mandab chokepoint in the Red Sea accounts for 10% of global seaborne oil flows and also a large amount of liquefied natural gas. The alternative route, which involves sailing around the entire African continent, adds 40% to the voyage’s distance.
The main economic risk that this introduces is to delay the arrival of key goods which would lead to shortages and inflation. Similar happened when global supply lanes were interrupted by the pandemic in 2020. This will pose difficult problems for the Federal Reserve, which last week surprised markets by saying that it would lower interest rates in 2024. This came as good news for President Biden, who trails Donald Trump in the polls due to severe economic pessimism amongst the electorate.
Oil markets also seem likely to be affected. For weeks, oil traders have been driving down energy prices despite Opec+ signalling that they would be cutting production and increasing tensions in the Middle East. Much of this appears to have been due to the preponderance of algorithmic trading in the market. It is certainly possible that oil markets continue to ignore the realities of supply and demand, but it will become increasingly difficult to do so as global shipping is disrupted. This, too, will impact Biden’s chance of re-election as energy prices are a hot political topic in America.
Just as in the 1970s, conflict in the Middle East is threatening to give rise to chaos in the energy markets and rising inflation. The Biden administration has no easy options on the table. Intervening directly in the region will drag the United States into a conflict it simply cannot afford. Yet failure to intervene will result not just in economic pressures, but also in other countries calling into question the viability of American security guarantees.
Philip Pilkington is a macroeconomist and investment professional, and the author of The Reformation in Economics
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SubscribeThrough my work I’ve dealt with gypsies for at least 25 years, without issue. They are almost always polite, and amusingly, at least to me, “smart”, or at least an attempt is made, shirt, tie, trousers etc, only let down by the fact that by the time they haul up at my work it’s all unravelled some what.
That said, I know fine well, that they live by a different set of rules and just as they might be discriminated against, they also discriminate and treat others, non travellers, with contempt, to be used and exploited with little regard. They are, when dealing with wider society, their own worst enemies, little do they care. The world at large is to be used, and abused for their own benefit, before moving on, leaving the settled community, or at least the landowner (if it’s private land, fat chance if you think the council or authorities will help) to clear up in their wake. They exploit wherever they go, but give very little, if anything back in return and they care even less.
As for legal stopping places, the local councils USED to provide facilities, but theft, arson, fly tipping, drug dealing and violent inter family feuds saw them all closed, one by one. Do they pay taxes, not if they can help it, do they play by the rules of the settled community, only when they absolutely must, would I trust them further than I could chuck them, no chance. Individually, they live by their wits, are invariably charming, but they’re rogues, every last one, and I should know, coming from a long line of people (Armstrong’s) who will consider anything not attended or bolted down as fair game.
It would be an absolute shame if Appleby horse fair were no more, and I don’t mean as some twee, sanitised, touristy spectical ( I dammed glad I don’t have to live there during the fair though) but travellers elicit little sympathy for their plight, for good reason, even if it isn’t always polite to say so, and as I said earlier “little do they care” as long as they get their way.
It works both ways, feelings are mutual, we treat each other with suspicion and contempt, and as long as we do so, we’ll rub along just fine.
Great comment.
I went to The Appleby Horse Fair a couple of years ago and had a really great time, along with many others. Its a truly wonderful and exiting spectacle.
Tradition can’t always be sanitised especially by the people who moved there knowing of the very short fair.
Any unsavoury behaviour can already be prosecuted and the verges they stay on are only scrub land anyway and can be cleared far cheaper than all the signage and police costs would involve.
So will this law restrict my right to bust down my neighbour’s garden gate, set up a tent for some boisterous lads for a few days so I can keep my neighbour from accessing their own property whilst we all piss and crap in their flowerbeds and dump all our rubbish on their grass? Oh my goodness, that is so racist.
I absolutely hate the notion, that a group of people can’t separate themselves from the shackles of settled life and just wonder the Earth, living by their wits and in blissful ignorance of the drama and pressures of ‘normal’ life.
Equally, I hate it that people who are in that wonderful place of freedom and living life to the full in a different way, destroy it through crime, lies, selfishness and an utter disregard for everybody else.
How a journalist can go from acknowledging the extraordinarily high rate of crime committed by the groups he is championing, to accusing the victims of discrimination shows just how skewed identity politics has become. A gathering like this would be an enormous opportunity for small, remote businesses to do a roaring trade which would help see them through the year. And it is, everywhere but where travellers are involved. Does it not occur to the author, and to the traveller community, that they have brought this legislation on themselves?
Trespass needs to be a criminal offence in order to make it easier to remove perpetrators from land and property where they have no consent to occupy or reside. It’s pretty simple and straightforward and long overdue. If someone is on your property without your consent then you should simply be able to call the police to have them removed immediately.
There is a process using bailiffs where you can usually get travellers off-site within 24 hours
I don’t think I’ve ever read such a load of guff on UnHerd. The reason the RSPCA watch this event so closely is because these serial animal abusers drowned a horse a few years ago in this pointless ritual. Who in their right mind washes a horse with Fairy Liquid in a river, for God’s sake?
We’ve had a series of illegal encampments locally in the last three years. A farmer who asked one lot to move off his land was threatened with violence. A second camp set up right next to the children’s playground and intimidated anyone who came near, depriving local kids of their play facilities. When they eventually left the playing field was left filthy and soiled.
Forced assimilation? Don’t make me laugh. Poor educational attainment? It would help if the children were encouraged to actually attend school. Members of this community are not victims of anything except their own obstinate refusal to live in the modern world and accept mutual social obligations.
I’m guessing Baroness Whitaker doesn’t have to live next door to any gypsy encampments herself. And btw, i’ll call them what I damn well choose.
My old father in London, when his brain was not too sharp had two run ins with them – one the tarmacking game where they had ‘leftover asphalt’ and would do the drive cheap. They took the money and spread tar out for the asphalt – and never returned. The last time they offered to prune all the trees, cut a few limbs back, got paid so they could pay some other crew, and left to get some thing and never came back.
I was involved in a USA case against American ‘Travelers’ who were doing really bad scam which actually did big harm to properties, threatened the owners to make them pay ridiculous amounts, and left – The entire community of them were busted as once the case hit the papers people emerged from all over who had been robbed so.
I 100% back this law, and would make it stronger as the strong preying on the weak makes he furious.
In this country there are many campsites where urban types can put up a tent, or park a caravan, and be welcome. The difference seems to be that I pay the owner and observe site rules.
If Roma, travellers etc did the same there would be no problem.
“other minority ethnic peoples to forgo their lifestyle“
Other minority groups don’t consider thieving and living off the taxes of those who work with no regard for the society they work for the betterment of “fair game”.
Not do they drag police officers behind a car down a country lane and then intimidate witnesses so that the scum who dragged the officer to his death get a slap on the wrists.
The picture shows Romanies. The problem people are the ‘Travellers’ with their total disregard for good behaviour, the squalor they live in, the mess they leave behind and their dependence on benefits
My comment suggesting many woke groups would see this legislation as racist has been removed.
I hope this isn’t a sign that the Unherd editors have joined the wokerati.
In that case, they will have no core members – myself included
I understand that media groups have to balance free speech against fashionable (profitable) opinion – but I thought this was the point of this site.
my guess is anything flagged gets removed – to be prudent.
Thanks – but maybe anything prudent gets removed
Where does all the money come from for big fat weddings? I know a bloke who lost a forklift locked behind a 6′ fence. ‘Dids took it’ he said.
Whoever wrote this hasn’t experienced the vibrancy and diversity of one of these people doing “doughnuts” in his front garden on a quad bike at 4 a.m., as happened to one of my friends a couple of years ago. He lives out in the sticks next an old airfield which was broken into and illegally squatted by a horde of “travellers”. Plod, of course, did the square root of sweet F.A. whilst the area was befouled, vandalised and plundered before eventually a series of mandatory injunctions were secured and the “travellers” forcibly moved on.
Agreed – and any legislation combatting this type of antisocial behaviour will not single out any particular group, so will not be discriminatory.
Sadly – despite this – many SJWs will scream completely unfounded accusations of racism.
Having said that, there will also be certain SJW groups who won’t want to defend gypsies due to their “inconvenient” skin colour.
WRONG! I think we can safely add this group to the ‘I’ of ‘BIPOC’
Absolutely agree. I have had to deal with them regularly over the years. They turn up at one of our sites late on Friday and invariably engage in causing wanton damage and leave behind a very unpleasant clean-up bill when they are evicted
This is a great “unherd” article. If you want naive, abstract stuff about “Human Rights” and Travellers, go to “The Guardian”. If you want “lock ’em up” guff, to to “The Telegraph”. But this piece manages to look at things right down the middle – the unique culture and history of the Roma and Travellers (good) which can lead to a refusal in some instances to go along with the ordinary rules of society (bad). It’s a complicated matter for which there are no easy answers. This is a good article that tries to engage with these issues. I’m not sure how popular it will be, though.
Thank you! A balanced response to a balanced article.
It’s not complicated. If you live here, you obey the law. If not, expect trouble.
That bit’s not complicated. But of the Travellers and Roma (distinct groups) who do obey the law, how do you balance assimilation with preserving the culture?
Which particular parts of the culture – that are illegal – should we wish to preserve ?
No. This article is not “balanced” as it simply fails to acknowledge that civil cosset in this country is governed by the rule of law.
I’m quite comfortable with travellers as long as they do not damage fences, buildings, parks, farms, and other property. AND don’t leave rubbish when they depart from temporary sites.
Unfortunately, they do damage and SCAR the countryside.
We live near a traveller site in Bedfordshire. I find Tom Lewis’ comments about getting along most accurate. We treat the gypsies with suspicion and they treat us with suspicion. Everyone knows where they stand and the thieving and anti-social behaviour is kept to a minimum.
No one is above the law, even though travellers, and the police, often behave in a way that would make you think they are. This new law is to protect everyones right to live peacefully without threat of occupation, it is not prejudice or racist against the traveller community.
“barter” or “haggle”/”negotiate”