by Freddie Sayers
Wednesday, 29
April 2020
Seen Elsewhere

Johan Giesecke stands firm: death rates in Sweden will go down

Swedish Professor Johan Giesecke has given a follow-up interview to the main Swedish broadsheet, Svenska Dagbladet, in which he responds to Professor Neil Ferguson’s interview on UnHerd: “I know [Ferguson] a little and he is normally quite arrogant, but I have never seen him as tense and nervous as during that interview,” he said.

Giesecke stands by his fundamentally different assessment of the threat of the Covid-19 threat:

Ferguson modified quite a few of the straightforward statements [from his report], but still seems to think that the lethality is somewhere at just under one percent, while I think it is actually much lower, perhaps as low as 0.1%.
- Johan Giesecke

He flatly rejects Professor Ferguson’s prediction that deaths in Sweden will continue to rise.

No, on the contrary, I think the number will go down — although it may tick up slightly when we get an outbreak in West Götaland or Skåne [provinces of Sweden that have so far been less badly affected].
- Johan Giesecke

Challenged on the apparent success of New Zealand in eliminating the virus completely, with a highly interventionist approach, Professor Giesecke asked whether that will really look like success in the long term:

Yes, it seems they have [suppressed the virus completely]. But what are they going to do now? To keep the country virus free, they will have to keep their borders closed. Everyone travelling in must be quarantined for 14 days before being admitted to the country, and if no good vaccine arrives, New Zealand will have to keep that quarantine for a long time. A very long time…
- Johan Giesecke



  • May 10, 2020
    Several comments below refer to the relatively high rate of deaths in NYC and among people from BAME backgrounds, while another refers to the rate in Australia as being on a par with Giesecke's assessment. I can't help feeling that it would be useful for hospitals to at least be testing Coronavirus... Read more

  • May 1, 2020
    Depends on the sample bias assumptions; are they more or less likely to have it at a store than general population? Also important for IFR: What part of the population became infected? They discharged (as we do) elderly patients back into care homes, and got a lot of problems that way - the CFR in... Read more

  • April 30, 2020
    Good articles. I am more convinced of the approach in Sweden. When will the work of Ferguson be published and peer reviewed? Read more

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