by Rob Lownie
Tuesday, 20
September 2022
News
16:00

Excess deaths keep rising across EU

The latest figures from July show 15% more deaths than normal
by Rob Lownie

EU excess deaths reached new highs in the month of July 2022, the latest EU figures show. Excess mortality hit +15.8% — equivalent to 53,000 excess deaths — compared to the same month in the years 2016-2019. This figure marks a steep rise from June and May 2022, both of which were around 7%.

Credit: EuroStat

While one EU member state, Latvia, recorded few or no excess deaths (-0.5%) in July, eleven countries had rates over 15%. The highest of these was Spain, with a rate of 36.9%, followed by Cyprus at 32.9% and Greece at 32.1%.

EU officials claim that July’s unusually high value “may be due to heat waves that affected parts of Europe”, which is why southern European countries suffered the highest rates of excess mortality. The spike is not attributed to Covid.

‘Excess mortality’ measures the number of deaths, from any cause, exceeding what would be considered normal during a particular period. Since April 2020, national statistical bodies from the EU and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) have submitted weekly death figures to Eurostat. In this time frame, the four clearest peaks have come in April 2020 (25.2%), November 2020 (40.0%), April 2021 (20.9%) and November 2021 (26.5%), most of which was driven by the Covid pandemic.

Outside the EU, during an eight-week period between 11 June and 5 August the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) listed 8,200 excess deaths in England and Wales, adjusted for age. 

These statistics show cardiovascular issues such as heart failure and circulatory diseases to be overrepresented as causes for excess mortality. Diabetes and urinary problems also feature heavily, while numbers for respiratory infections are skewed by Covid-19. 

However, according to the ONS’s most recent statistics, in the week ending 2 September only 3.5% of total excess deaths in England and Wales involved Covid as a contributing factor. In 182 of these 314 cases, the coronavirus was recorded as the underlying cause of death. This is down from the previous week, in which Covid-19 accounted for 4.1% of excess mortality. 

For a discussion of potential causes, don’t miss the recent UnHerdTV discussion with actuary Stuart Macdonald.

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Paul K
Paul K
7 days ago

Don’t mention the vaccines, don’t mention the vaccines, don’t mention the vaccines …

Jim R
Jim R
7 days ago
Reply to  Paul K

Can you imagine if it was ever shown to be vaccine related? Whatever is left of public trust in government, health care and science would evaporate. Public order would collapse. The bottom line is that we are ‘all in’ on the vaccines – and no matter what the future reveals, no matter how much harm comes to pass, that ‘noble lie’ that they are safe and effective must never be questioned.

Aaron James
Aaron James
7 days ago
Reply to  Jim R

I wonder what % of readers here did not do the, what may not be mentioned. If you have not had the you-know-what vote up, otherwise vote down (I naturally refused but do not know if you can up vote your post, if one can mine will appear.)

Aaron James
Aaron James
7 days ago
Reply to  Aaron James

one may not up vote one’s own post, so take as one up vote exists)

Ethniciodo Rodenydo
Ethniciodo Rodenydo
6 days ago
Reply to  Aaron James

No you can’t. You must have coincided with another up vote.
For the avoidance of doubt, I up voted

Liam O'Mahony
Liam O'Mahony
2 days ago
Reply to  Aaron James

I’ve had 4 jabs and one viral attack (the latter less than my average headcold, which I put down to the former: my jabs)..
I’ll let you know how I fare: I’m 72 btw: so far so good: zero adverse effect: but sure, early days…

Hendrik Mentz
Hendrik Mentz
7 days ago
Reply to  Jim R

Jim R, I believe the consequences are already clear to see and dire: the near universal denial that an experimental gene therapy never before tested on humans, and that we were all coerced into taking could, has or is causing harm – and I include the Lloyds actuary interviewed by Sayers – is unhinging society.

Margie Murphy
Margie Murphy
6 days ago
Reply to  Jim R

Public trust needs to collapse. And the people in power need to begin again and earn the trust ifnthe people. Our ruling classes are beholden to transnational world organisations and leftist group think. When the these organisations say jump our leader say how high and when they say “not for debate” cancel culture revs up!. These are scary times.

Frank McCusker
Frank McCusker
6 days ago
Reply to  Margie Murphy

“And the people in power need to begin again and earn the trust of the people”
You’re a commie

Martin Johnson
Martin Johnson
6 days ago
Reply to  Margie Murphy

If public trust truly collapses the rulers will do what Brecht recommended and replace the people. Already well along on that, actually.

Ben
Ben
6 days ago
Reply to  Jim R

“Whatever is left of public trust in government, health care and science would evaporate.”
Wouldn’t that be nice. It’s not what’d happen though. People would just shrug, tut, and express mild surprise that ‘they got away with it’. Meanwhile those who got away with it will, I suppose, be safely retired with their billions.

Meanwhile a new generation of elites will be busy creating and exploiting a new ‘crisis scheme’ to rob the world with.

Norman Powers
Norman Powers
6 days ago
Reply to  Jim R

Well, probably there will never be a sudden moment where anything is “shown”, just a drip-drip-drip of information and commentary that over a period of many years and maybe decades slowly turns the tide until one day you look around and discover everyone seems to agree that it was a mistake best left unmentioned.
Sort of like how the lab leak idea took a couple of years until most people (in credentialed circles) believed it. It wasn’t any one thing or any one moment, just the steady build up of evidence that caused more people to poke their head above the parapet.
The question is how long it will take? There do seem to be more papers getting published lately showing harms from vaccines, something that was impossible to get through the journal process a year ago. Since the slowdown in vaccine adoption the impact of speaking out is less, as everyone either refused and is sticking with it or took their shots already. There’s not much real world immediate impact from anything that can happen now (until next time of course).

Miss Me
Miss Me
6 days ago
Reply to  Jim R

At dinner the other night two people had suffered severe side effects following, for one, the second shot and the other the booster. Then I heard of a friend’s daughter experiencing other serious and persistent side effects. That the BBC recently bragged about getting a FB page set up for vaccine injured and their families (270K followers) shut down is a small measure of the scandalous extent of the cover-up that is now in operation.
If we stand for that we will stand for anything and deserve it all.

Last edited 6 days ago by Miss Me
Frank McCusker
Frank McCusker
6 days ago
Reply to  Jim R

I had covid, and long covid, twice, once in March 2020 – Dec 2020; and again from Dec 2021 to about now. Vaccinated before the second one, symptoms nowhere near as severe.  

Teresa M
Teresa M
2 days ago
Reply to  Frank McCusker

Omicron was the variant most prevalent in Dec 21, and it was a more mild, but more contagious variant than the one people had in 2020. Until December 21 none of my unvaccinated friends had caught covid (and I live in Texas so most of my friends and I decided not to take the shot). Most of my relatives have taken the shot and boosters. They have all had covid two or three times beginning in early 2021 AFTER they were vaccinated. . My unvaccinated friends who have had covid have had it only once, most in December 21 and January 22. All had very mild cases, symptoms for two to three days. I’ve not had covid myself. But my point is that you cannot really know whether or not your mild case of covid was due to the mildness of the Omicron strain, or whether it was due to your having gotten the shot. And in fact your having gotten the shot may be the reason you had covid in Dec 21.. We now know that people who have the shots are more likely to get covid , and the likelihood increases with the number of boosters one receives. But convincing people who had the shot that the shot didn’t help them , or probably didn’t, is impossible. Every one of my vaccinated relatives who have had repeated cases of covid after vaccination insist they would have ended up in the hospital on a ventilator had they not been vaccinated before they caught covid two or three times.

Liam O'Mahony
Liam O'Mahony
2 days ago
Reply to  Jim R

Looks like some folk have already made up their minds!

Alastair Herd
Alastair Herd
6 days ago
Reply to  Paul K

Could be the vaccines, could also be the CCP Bioweapon

Miss Me
Miss Me
6 days ago
Reply to  Alastair Herd

Well, if it was the virus itself how does that explain the fact that in 2020 the death toll took people with an average age of 83? Yes, there were some young victims but usually with co-morbidities.
It is not until following the mass rollout of vaccines that excess non-covid deaths started to climb.

Gordon Welford
Gordon Welford
6 days ago
Reply to  Miss Me

Could be the lockdowns ?

Gordon Welford
Gordon Welford
6 days ago
Reply to  Alastair Herd

Is that Herd immunity ?

Frank McCusker
Frank McCusker
6 days ago
Reply to  Paul K

Are you a biological scientist?
Don’t mention covid, don’t mention covid, don’t mention covid.

Ian Stewart
Ian Stewart
6 days ago
Reply to  Paul K

Knee jerk, knee jerk, knee jerk.

Try considering other factors and data such as those commenting below have, especially Laura – instead of doing the knee jerk reaction?

Fran Martinez
Fran Martinez
2 days ago
Reply to  Paul K

Either vaccines or lockdowns unforseen events. This could have been easily avoided…

Liam O'Mahony
Liam O'Mahony
2 days ago
Reply to  Paul K

Primitive comment: immensely popular of course!

Zak Orn
Zak Orn
7 days ago

Ah yes, heat waves / climate change, the convenient scapegoat for the result of every incompetent (?) decision made by the “elites”

Andrew Horsman
Andrew Horsman
7 days ago
Reply to  Zak Orn

That heatwave in Iceland, man. It was something else. Killed folk in their thousands.

This is how empires die, in lies and fallen idols.

laurence scaduto
laurence scaduto
6 days ago
Reply to  Zak Orn

Surely, it must be populism. How could we have missed it?

Norman Powers
Norman Powers
6 days ago
Reply to  Zak Orn

Heat waves can cause excess deaths and it was very hot this summer, so that can’t be just dismissed with nothing. On the other hand it’s usually the very elderly that are taken out by heat.
Maybe Iceland is a good counter-argument, don’t know, haven’t looked at it. But the heatwave has passed, so it won’t take long to resolve the question of what impact that was having.

Peter Johnson
Peter Johnson
7 days ago

Amazing. The #1 cause of death last year in Alberta was ‘unknown’. Up 600% since 2019. Can you believe that the CBC – Canadas public broadcaster – hasn’t covered this issue at all? They are the least curious investigative journalists in history!

Last edited 7 days ago by Gunner Myrtle
Brendan O'Leary
Brendan O'Leary
7 days ago

Could also be delayed deaths now happening after opening up due to lockdowns immunity deficit.

David Owsley
David Owsley
7 days ago

“may be due to heat waves that affected parts of Europe”
Sure…but it’s not just July. And Spain is always very hot in summer and comparing to the temperature average (2016-2019) the temps had always killed in Spain…so 36.9% this year (That is crazy!!) it must be something else …and perhaps humans just aren’t meant to cover their breathing organs all day… and the UK was hotter than Spain and even Middle East for much of July.
btw, UK also 10-15%….and not just July…and Australia…and…

anna m
anna m
5 days ago
Reply to  David Owsley

NZ is up too. No heatwave here. I’m guessing it’s a mix of the effects of the predictably disastrous covid response inflicted upon us by our Dear Leader, and also that other thing that we aren’t allowed to mention.

Russell David
Russell David
6 days ago

Funny how in the summer of 2020 in the West there were no excess deaths. I wonder what could have changed since then…?

William Shaw
William Shaw
7 days ago

Obviously the EU is a pox on humanity.

Rob J
Rob J
6 days ago
Reply to  William Shaw

But wasn’t in 2016-19, the comparison point.

Martin Smith
Martin Smith
6 days ago

We do not know why this is happening, but for sure it has nothing whatsoever to do with the recent mass vaccine rollout.

Liam O'Mahony
Liam O'Mahony
2 days ago
Reply to  Martin Smith

Not sure if you (+ commentators) are being facetious? ..if you’re serious how can you know?

Laura Creighton
Laura Creighton
7 days ago

I posted some graphs, but they are awaiting approval. At any rate, the Swedish Statistics Bureau is not finding any excess mortality at all. This is almost certainly due to how the baseline was calculated. In Sweden, the year 2019 is the most anomalous year, mortality-wise for the last 100 years. So many, many, many fewer people died (who were expected to) that year. 2020, which was the big death year for Covid showed excess mortality, but not nearly as much excess as the shortage of the year before. (2022 is looking to be another strong mortality deficit year, as well.) Which gives modellers a problem. An average of 2016-2019 will drastically undercount the number of expected dead this year. I think that what scb did was to throw away the year 2019 as being such an outlier that we cannot make good statistics with it. There have been other attempts, such as using an average for other years for that year, with a fancier weighting factor, or to just say that the people who were expected to be dead in 2019 can be doubly expected to be dead in 2020. (If you do the last, then you end up with an even larger mortality deficit than on the graphs I posted and hope unherd will approve soon.)

Last edited 6 days ago by Laura Creighton
chris sullivan
chris sullivan
7 days ago

also check EUROMOMO graphs for a comparison. Also are we seeing the delayed deaths due to lack of care during covid as many have predicted ??

chris sullivan
chris sullivan
7 days ago
Reply to  chris sullivan

Just checked euromomo which says excess mort actually down after a recent spike so ??

Liam O'Mahony
Liam O'Mahony
2 days ago
Reply to  chris sullivan

Law of large numbers: put on its head: with limited data (1 mth) distortion is inevitably. Look instead at overall figures for ’22. Might well even out ala Law of Large Numbers.

David Owsley
David Owsley
7 days ago

Yes, the 2019 low Sweden mortality was ignored as TPTB and their tame media tried to show that the high 2020 mortality was Sweden not doing what all the other countries were doing and that they should be locking down and masking up. probably half the excess deaths in the UK March/April 2020 peak could also be ‘chalked off’ to the lower 2019 winter deaths. Everyone keeps showing graphs with nasty huge waves in Spring 2020 and winter 20/21 yet look at total all-cause mortality adjusted for population and there’s hardly a blip. An outsider looking at the cold numbers in a few years won’t be able to tell what year there was a “major deadly pandemic”…

Ian Stewart
Ian Stewart
6 days ago

Thanks for your efforts on this!

CHARLES STANHOPE
CHARLES STANHOPE
7 days ago

The Corona dividend perhaps?

Morris May
Morris May
7 days ago

Death within 28 days’ of a sunny day

Graff von Frankenheim
Graff von Frankenheim
6 days ago

Let me guess, none of these excess deaths occurred in the biomedical or political elites?

Liam O'Mahony
Liam O'Mahony
2 days ago

…evidence? Or are we not bothered with such trivialities?

Nathan Hale
Nathan Hale
6 days ago

Without causes, there are no effects. Nothing occurs spontaneously, even spontaneous combustion.
The elephant in the room is being energetically ignored.

Liam O'Mahony
Liam O'Mahony
2 days ago
Reply to  Nathan Hale

Maybe… but other major factors well also prevalent: excessive food and alcohol, indolence, stress etc.

Laura Creighton
Laura Creighton
7 days ago

This isn’t what statistics Sweden is saying, which is that we don’t have excess mortality. I suspect it all has to do with how you construct the baseline. Given that 2019 had so many, many fewer people dying than was expected, figuring out ‘now how many of those people who were expected to die in 2019 should be counted as expected to die in 2020 too?’ a bit tricky.
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Norman Powers
Norman Powers
6 days ago

Thanks for the graphs. Actually it seems this graph isn’t saying “no excess mortality” it’s saying there’s a dearth of mortality, in which 2021 and 2022 seem to continue the levels of mortality seen in 2019. So 2019 is maybe not an anomalous year but rather, a permanent new state of affairs in Sweden for some unclear reason.
74% of Sweden is fully vaccinated, so, this country is a strong counter-argument to the idea that it’s caused by vaccines (unless there’s something truly unusual about their vaccine programme). If it’s vaccine caused then it should show up everywhere. The fact that Sweden is an outlier in this regard lends credence to the idea that it’s more likely related to lockdowns than vaccines. I don’t see any other way to interpret it, unless the “vaccines = excess deaths” theory is made more complex to account for exceptions.

Martin Rossol
Martin Rossol
2 days ago

I am inclined to say the jab is the culprit, but I think we should be a bit more scientific about it. Correlation is not causation. What frustrates me is that we get data on “excess deaths” (I’ll assume these datum are correct for now), but if there is an implication that the cause is the jab, then why not also report the jab-status of each excess death, at least to the extent possible. Unless that data is not being asked, recorded, etc. If not, than even more shame on the “researchers”.

Liam O'Mahony
Liam O'Mahony
2 days ago
Reply to  Martin Rossol

The jab rate in some countries is so huge that there will be insufficient data to prove anything. Countries with a low jab rate (50% is ideal) would be the best population to study. Immediate cause of death is easy to establish but contributory causes are not.
It is also possible, maybe even probable that indolence coupled with excessive food and alcohol consumption and stress during lockdown were the cause. Probably we’ll never know as scientists are all in the pockets of big pharma mow! Byw.. ‘datum’ is the singular: data the plural. Sorry to be pedantic.

laurence scaduto
laurence scaduto
6 days ago

Gender dysphoria?

Robert Carruthers
Robert Carruthers
2 days ago

Countries with strictest lockdown feature notably. No surprise there as if you insist on corralling your population for no reason into pens for 2 years you should not be surprised if they die off. I suggest the ending of the novel the Cave as a premonition of societal self- immolation.

Iris C
Iris C
6 days ago

The decision to lockdown in order to preserve the lives of the elderly and the vulnerable may now be taking its toll. In the normal course of events the elderly died of illness and other causes, but the governments of the world knew better and usurped God’s role, upsetting the natural order of things.

Liam O'Mahony
Liam O'Mahony
2 days ago
Reply to  Iris C

Maybe… I’m not so sure. Certainly the vulnerable should have been isolated (in hotels, holiday villages etc) and the rest allowed to get on with life, contracting and easily surviving yhe virus. Jabbing kids and the fit and health young was/is criminal.