January 2, 2024 - 4:00pm
China ended 2023 by doubling down on its military purges, removing nine generals and three officials from companies linked to the aerospace defence sector. Then, in his New Year address, Xi Jinping pledged ahead of presidential elections in Taiwan this month that “reunification is inevitable”.
The problem is that the purge and reshuffle of China’s strategic top command posts demonstrates how far the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is from being able to sustain a war which would likely involve the US. Xi also recently culled leading members of the rocket force, responsible for China’s missile programme. This follows on from the detention and removal of defence minister Li Shangfu in October, as well as the sacking of two generals overseeing China’s nuclear missile programme in August.
As for the motivation behind these actions, there is speculation about corruption, political disloyalty, incompetence and even espionage. It is also possible that Xi has witnessed major shortcomings in his armies and is cleaning house before launching an attack on Taiwan. But regardless of the specific motive, what is clear from the ongoing purge is that despite his assertive tone, Xi is not confident in China’s armed forces. In that light, don’t expect China to engage in larger military operations against Taiwan or the US in the short term.
On several occasions, Xi has asked the PLA to be “ready to win wars”, and set an ambitious modernisation programme with the aim of being a “world class” army by 2050. That date would coincide with the centenary of the People’s Republic of China in 2049, when, according to the official narrative, “China’s national rejuvenation” should be completed. This means, among other things, reunification with Taiwan.
Yet Xi’s internal cull shows he is not there yet. Corruption in Beijing’s military has been a decades-long problem, seen as an obstacle to the professionalisation and modernisation of the PLA. But in modern China, competence does not just mean professional talent, but political loyalty too. Control over the military has long been a preoccupation of Xi’s, ensuring the PLA doesn’t harbour senior officers opposed to his leadership. To this end, he has stressed that the PLA is the army of the Party, not of the Chinese nation. As the leader of the CCP, this should involve personal loyalty to him.
Amid this upheaval, China is not yet abandoning its ambition over Taiwan. Really, Xi is preparing for a future conflict over the contested territory. The appointment of Admiral Dong Jun, former head of the PLA Navy (PLAN), as the new defence minister reveals the larger role that the Chinese Premier wants for the PLAN within China’s military restructuring. This points towards a future invasion of Taiwan by sea, and the need for the PLAN to challenge the US Navy’s control of the waters. China’s army is not yet ready for war, but Xi is running out of patience.
Miquel Vila is a political consultant specialising in international affairs. He is also the executive director of the Catalonia Global Institute.
miquelvilam
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeWhen they heard the naïve and irrelevant Rory Stewart makes £70k per month out of his nonsense they wanted their noses in the trough.
Who wouldn’t for £840,000 pa!
Rory and Gorge and Ed would make it because there are enough remainers to pay for it.
I believe in capitalist system, so good for them.
My problem is with taxpayer founded BBC pushing the same agenda.
Defund these parasites.
Agreed.
What ever happened to Tory promises to ‘discipline’ the BBC?
If the thought of this makes you nauseous, I recommend the Weekly Sceptic podcast with Toby Young and Nick Dixon.
A bromance between George Osborne and Ed Balls. Osborne who wanted the UK in bed with the Chinese, and Balls who was part of the Brown government which blew away billions propping up banks.
Yes, definitely keep a bucket handy.
Which makes sense.
If you get in bed with Chinese you will be proping your banks when it all goes south.
It makes me hanker for the halcyon days when Harold Wilson quietly went off to a bungalow (although only after falling flat on his face as a chat-show host thanks to David Frost apparently).
This lot are like ageing rockstars who never go away but with zero credibility .
Where do politicians go to die ?
The podcastsphere.
Haven’t you forgotten Nancy (Botox) Pelosi?
Where did she get it?
In her lips or her brain?
Second one did not work.
Dowager Princesses.
10 years ago, Osborne was very popular amongst my old Oxford peers, certain whom viewed him as a political genius. I just took him to be an overprivileged brat who was happy to punish the poor and disabled.
Balls was completely ineffective as an opposition politician but reasonably inoffensive. He also morphed successfully to TV, Balls, whereas Osborne has just come across as an unpleasant influence in all the post-political projects he’s taken up in the newspaper trade and now public museums.
When you see the ‘ranters’, the ‘has been’s’ and the ‘never was’s’ on GB News and Talk TV it’s hardly a surprise this couple who’ve actually held High Office cashing in a bit.
Well, I have a problem with former Chancellor making money by advancing Chinese interests.
No idea about Balls. He was on something about dancing I am told by morons who watch such things.
Yes agree on Osborne and Chinese. Clear now a generation of politicians were naive about Xi and the CCP.
As regards Balls and his dancin, it was good fun and he came out of it well. Strictly about to start so not too late to allow yourself a guilty pleasure AF.