Ukraine faces decisive months ahead as key allies gear up for crunch elections. While early presidential campaigning in the US and a looming general election in Poland will grab the international headlines, a snap election in Slovakia on 30 September may prove every bit as consequential. 

With Robert Fico — Slovakia’s former prime minister and one of the West’s most outspoken critics of the Ukrainian war effort — poised to win the vote, a change of government in Bratislava could have a profound effect on EU policymaking. Fico has promised that if his party makes it into government “we will not send a single bullet to Ukraine,” proudly proclaiming that “I allow myself to have a different opinion to that of the United States” on the war.  

Fico has also claimed on the campaign trail that “war always comes from the West and peace from the East,” and that “what is happening today is unnecessary killing, it is the emptying of warehouses to force countries to buy more American weapons.” Such statements have resulted in him being blacklisted by Kyiv as a spreader of Russian propaganda.  

Yet the former prime minister spearheads a new brand of Left-wing, anti-American populism that has become a powerful force in Central Europe since the war began. Perceptions that “the Americans occupy us” — as one MP in Fico’s Smer party evocatively put it — are shared with a similar groundswell of anti-Western opinion in the neighbouring Czech Republic.  

Yet Smer has been handed a chance to gain power thanks to the chaos which has engulfed Slovakia’s pro-EU, pro-Western forces. Personal grievances coupled with serious policy errors tore apart a four-party coalition formed after elections in 2020, leaving Fico to capitalise on heightened mistrust in establishment politics. Smer is expected to become the nation’s largest party after this month’s election, with an anticipated 20% of the vote.  

Whatever the specific makeup of the new government, if Smer is the largest party it will likely pursue a foreign policy similar to that of Viktor Orbán’s government in Hungary. A halt to until-now generous Slovak arms shipments to Ukraine is Fico’s central electoral pledge, while the arrival on the scene of another Orbán-style government prepared to obstruct EU aid efforts for Ukraine would create a serious headache. That is particularly the case as Brussels struggles to win support for both short and long-term war funding commitments. 

Victory for Fico would also amplify Orbán’s scepticism about the overall Western narrative on Ukraine — a scepticism which the Hungarian Prime Minister recently conveyed to Western conservatives during an interview with Tucker Carlson. Orbán portrayed Ukraine’s attempts to win back the territories taken by Russia as ultimately hopeless and claimed that Donald Trump’s promise to end the war quickly makes him “the man who can save the Western world”. 

Like Trump in America and Orbán in Europe, Fico is hated with a passion by establishment forces. But in Slovakia, the pro-Western establishment itself has become so mistrusted that power may soon pass to a man intent on shattering what’s left of European unity on Ukraine. 

Following a series of high-profile victories by candidates affiliated with the Left-wing Democratic Socialists of America, a faction of center-left Democrats is finally pushing back. They argue that the DSA’s values do not, or at least should not, represent the party’s values — or America’s.

A new letter titled “Promise to America” outlines six principles these Democrats believe their party must stand for, the first of which strikes at the DSA’s foundational premise: “We are capitalist, not socialist.” It affirms that Democrats believe in shared prosperity as well as security and safety, including at the nation’s borders and in its communities.

Other principles echo Clinton- and Obama-era liberal ideals and patriotism, arguing that America remains an indispensable player on the world stage for ensuring “global stability, democratic values, international security, and strong alliances”. The letter calls for a government that can “solve problems, not create them”; a society that respects freedom of speech and democratic pluralism; and a civic culture that is aspirational and believes in the promise of America. It also rejects the politics of “purity, contempt, and cultural division”.

So far, 15 Democratic candidates for the US House of Representatives, including 10 incumbents, have signed the letter. Of the 15, 12 are running in districts that are rated as either competitive or favoring Republicans — in other words, the kind of seats that will determine which party controls the House after the midterms later this year.

It’s thus important for these Democrats to clearly distinguish themselves from the DSA, and even the national Democratic Party itself. Indeed, rather than forcefully repudiating candidates who possess these extreme views, such as support for police abolition or the belief that the 9/11 attacks on America may have been justified, the party establishment has welcomed them. Republicans, facing an unfriendly midterm environment, are thanking their lucky stars for the slip-ups and hope to link these candidates to those running in much tougher districts.

Making matters worse for the swing-district candidates is that the Democrats’ national standing today is not nearly as strong as it was in 2018 when they enjoyed a wave election and flipped several districts that went for Donald Trump two years earlier. After a brief surge in late May on the generic congressional ballot, Democrats’ net advantage over Republicans has ticked back down and now trails where they were at the same time in 2018 by 1.3 points. A big reason for this is likely that many voters simply aren’t keen on either party currently. This includes all-important independents. Eight years ago, their net approval of Democrats sat at -36; today, that number has sunk even further to -52.

Of course, Democrats went on to have a strong midterm in 2018, and independents aren’t exactly happy with Trump and the Republicans today either. But it’s evident that Democrats do not have this election in the bag just yet, and their Leftward lurch, of which voters do not approve, is unlikely to do them any favors.

To win back the House — or, for that matter, the Senate — Democrats must be able to compete in places where voters lean well to the Right of the party’s base, including places which Trump won two years ago. Candidates running in these places will have to address voters’ frustrations with the political establishment and offer a clear vision of their own, especially on everyday issues such as the cost of living and healthcare.

Yet they must also show voters who are wary of political extremism in any form that they are willing to stand up to it in their own party, rather than tepidly permit it. The “Promise to America” is a sign that at least some Democrats are fed up with their party’s direction, and that they are seeking to forge a new way.

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Michael Baharaeen is chief political analyst at The Liberal Patriot substack.

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