To this day, Bernard Lewis’s quip on the United States in the Middle East still rings true: “America is harmless as an enemy but treacherous as a friend.” In light of the recent visit of Argentinian president-elect Javier Milei to Washington, the question arising from Lewis’s observation also applies to Latin America. 

While the usual suspects in the media are spinning into overdrive about the supposedly far-Right and Trump-admiring Milei, he also happens to be the most unapologetically pro-American and pro-Western politician to emerge from South America in decades. Although Milei did not meet President Biden in person, he did have appointments with some of his senior aides including National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and lunch with former US president Bill Clinton.  ...  Continue reading

The dam is breached. The “shock election victory” of Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom (PVV) will reverberate through all of Europe. The Dutch people decided to cast their vote for the Right-wing firebrand — and massively so, at least considering the conditions of the country’s parliamentary system. With a notoriously high number of political parties participating in elections, 23% of votes going to the PVV still qualifies as a political earthquake. 

It means that the party will more than double its numbers in parliament, most likely ending up with 37 seats out of 150. It also means, however, that the PVV still falls short of the 76 seats needed for Wilders to become prime minister. So, despite all the celebrations, it will probably be months of negotiations before a new government is sworn in, and whether his party will be part of it remains an open question.  ...  Continue reading

In order to win a game of chess, one doesn’t have to be a grandmaster, only better than one’s opponent. While Vladimir Putin is by no means a geopolitical genius, it would appear that he understands commodity markets better than his Western counterparts. 

As Moscow’s economy shows no sign of collapsing under the weight of sanctions, the Financial Times reported this week that Western officials are now admitting almost no Russian oil is sold below the $60 US-led price cap. The cap had been imposed in an attempt to curb revenues from Russia’s oil exports, enacted by the G7 nations so as to ensure a stable global supply while limiting Putin’s capacity to continue his war in Ukraine. Today it was reported that the EU, unhappy with the results, has proposed further tightening of the cap. ...  Continue reading

Based on its current storage, Germany looks set to make it through another winter without Russian pipeline gas, demonstrating that the fears of the past two years were unmerited. According to a new poll, Germans are no longer worried about potential gas shortages. Policy experts have come to hold the same view, provided the country isn’t subject to a combination of very unlikely factors, such as a complete halting of LNG imports or an enduring cold snap this winter. Alas, it would be premature to claim that the energy question has been finally resolved to Germany’s benefit. 

If measured only through availability, it would be fair to say that Berlin has overcome its addiction to Russian gas. If, however, one takes into account the price the German economy will have to pay — and is already paying — for this victory, it may turn out to be a Pyrrhic one.  ...  Continue reading

According to various German reports, domestic intelligence was tipped off earlier this week by a foreign source about a possible terrorist attack on a pro-Israel rally in a major German city. The suspect, “Tarek S”, is a former member of Isis who became infamous in Germany for posing with the victims of beheadings and featuring in propaganda videos for the Islamist group. Once returned to Germany in 2017, he was convicted to five years of juvenile detention.

His alleged plans included driving a truck into a group of demonstrators, echoing the terrorist attack that occurred in December 2016 when a Tunisian Islamist drove a vehicle into a crowded Christmas market, killing 13 people. Although the perpetrator of that attack was well known to the authorities, a lack of inter-agency communication — as well as a failure to deport those who are illegally in the country — made it all but impossible to prevent what became the first major Islamic terror attack in Germany. A special commission examining the case concluded that proper procedures by the German security apparatus could have thwarted the attack.  ...  Continue reading

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz plans to remain in office beyond the next election, and apparently he and his team already have a slogan: “New German Speed”. This is in reference to the velocity with which Germany has decoupled from Russian gas imports. The German voters, it seems, are also increasingly in a hurry — to get Scholz and his cabinet out. According to the Times, a majority wants a snap election, with just 37% supporting the current three-party coalition.

While Germany has had unpopular governments before, this time is different: not everybody supported Angela Merkel’s political decisions (especially during the 2015 migration crisis), but at least under her chancellorship Berlin was the undisputed hegemon within the EU. This is no longer the case, and Germany is once again being described as the “sick man of Europe”. The economy is no longer performing as it used to, with industrial production falling by 12.2% since 2018. ...  Continue reading

The events currently unfolding in the Middle East provide a stark reminder that, whether we like it or not, geopolitics trumps all. At the time of writing, Hamas terrorist squads that entered Israel have killed at least 250 people and injured many more, while also taking an unknown number of hostages.

The attack not only echoes the Yom Kippur War of 1973, when an attack by a coalition of Arab states led by Syria and Egypt caught the Israeli Defense Forces unawares, but in some respects the events of 11th September 2001. This was not an attempted invasion by hostile nations, but instead the deliberate killing of Israeli civilians with the purpose of shock and provocation, akin to al-Qaeda’s 9/11 attacks.  ...  Continue reading

At the time of writing, Tino Chrupalla, the co-leader of the German Alternative für Deutschland party (AfD) is under observation at a hospital, after what appears to have been a potential attack with a needle-like object. The German authorities are still investigating the incident, but it is as of yet unclear what precisely happened.

Even if there was no political motivation behind the attack, it serves as a reminder of the increase in Left-wing political violence occurring across Germany. Overall, Left- and Right-wing extremism in Germany show a similar number of incidents, but in recent years the Left has begun to move from “general” violence (for example at demonstrations) to more specific targeting of individuals. ...  Continue reading