“Every metre that Ukrainian forces regain is a metre that Russia loses”, Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said yesterday during a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. That he is now speaking in terms of metres is perhaps revealing of the slow pace of Ukraine’s counter-offensive. 

In truth, the frontline has moved by miles rather than metres but not by that many. According to analysis by the New York Times, less territory changed hands in August than in any other month of the conflict so far and, since the start of this year, Ukraine has gained 143 square miles compared to Russia’s 331 square miles in that time.  ...  Continue reading

“Ukraine is behaving like a drowning person clinging to anything available… A drowning man is extremely dangerous, capable of pulling you down to the depths.”

Such comments would be surprising from any ally of Ukraine, yet especially so coming yesterday from Andrzej Duda, the President of Poland. Bound by shared memories of Soviet-era oppression, Poland has consistently been one of Ukraine’s most stalwart supporters, welcoming over a million refugees, supplying weaponry and agitating for others to follow suit. Duda’s comments were not the only sign of a recent decline in Poland’s commitment. Yesterday, the country’s Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, announced that the government would no longer transfer weapons to Ukraine in favour of “arming Poland”.  ...  Continue reading

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has reportedly proceeded at a more rapid pace in recent weeks, notching up some noteworthy successes. Last week, Ukrainian forces liberated the village of Robotyne, after which White House spokesman John Kirby praised their “notable progress” over the previous 72 hours in a southern offensive near the Zaporizhzhia region. 

Meanwhile, over the weekend, Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy said that his country’s forces had successfully breached Russia’s first defensive line near Zaporizhzhia and that — propitiously for his side — Moscow had only committed 20% of its time and resources to each of the second and third lines. However, despite the most recent news indicating that the momentum is with Ukraine, it would appear that its allies are seeking not to raise hopes but, instead, to manage expectations.  ...  Continue reading

Russian media has reported General Sergei Surovikin’s dismissal as commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, to be replaced by Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov as acting head. Surovikin’s removal is hardly surprising — he has not been seen in public since a 23rd June video in which he urged Wagner insurrectionists to “lay down arms” and obey the President. On Sunday, a blog close to Russia’s security forces claimed that Surovikin was “under a kind of house arrest”, unable to leave his home but permitted visits by subordinates.

Dubbed “General Armageddon” for his brutal military tactics in Chechnya and Syria, Surovikin was appointed commander of Russian forces in Ukraine in October, a position he held until his January demotion in favour of General Valery Gerasimov. Despite the loss of status, Surovikin enjoyed the rare distinction of being a Russian general who met with praise from Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.  ...  Continue reading

Over the past few weeks, western allies have grown increasingly pessimistic about Ukraine. This month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken commented that “the jury is still out” on the counter-offensive, adding that it will not be possible to know for “at least a month and maybe longer whether the counter-offensive is going to make significant strategic gains for Ukraine in terms of recovering territory”. Then over the weekend, Politico reported that American officials are now privately confessing to regrets that they did not heed the words of Joint Chiefs Chair General Mark Milley, who suggested peace talks back in November, with figures in the administration now fearing that the opportunity to push for negotiations may have been missed.  ...  Continue reading

A glance across Monday morning’s UK papers might give a somewhat unclear impression of how the war in Ukraine is going. The Financial Times suggests that Vladimir Putin is cranking up his military effort, while Metro’s front page booms out, in vivid block caps, “Putin peace bombshell”. Meanwhile, the Telegraph details Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s intentions to further bring the war to Russia, following a drone attack on a well-heeled Moscow neighbourhood.

The noises coming from the Kremlin are hardly any more straightforward. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and now Deputy Secretary of the Security Council, said on Sunday that, should the Ukrainian counteroffensive be successful, Russia “would have to use nuclear weapons”.  ...  Continue reading

In 1985, a man carrying a Safeway bag waited on Moscow’s Kutuzovsky Prospekt. Another man soon passed, holding a Harrods carrier bag and eating a Mars bar. The two exchanged glances. Shortly afterwards, the former was bundled into the boot of a car by his British spy handlers and sped across the Finnish border as the KGB raced to locate him. 

The valuable individual was Oleg Gordievsky — KGB colonel, former head of Russian intelligence in London and longtime double agent. Unlike the majority of agents, Gordievsky had always stressed that his duplicity stemmed from moral rather than financial motives, saying, “I want to work for the West out of ideological conviction, not for gain.” ...  Continue reading

How do you solve a problem like Yevgeny Prigozhin? The thief-turned-hot dog seller, restauranteur, warlord and — most recently — insurrectionist looked set to end his ascent as leader of Russia at certain points during Saturday’s armed rebellion, yet now finds himself searching for a new role.  

Yesterday the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, announced that Prigozhin had arrived in the country, as agreed under the terms of the deal that Lukashenko himself brokered to quell the revolt. The mercenary boss is not arriving alone. Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed on Monday that Wagner fighters could join the Ministry of Defence or another security agency, return home, or go to Belarus.  ...  Continue reading