Strange things are happening in the global oil markets. The prices, set by the oil futures market, seem to make less and less sense when compared to the underlying fundamentals. Last week, Opec+ convened a meeting at which the cartel decided to cut oil production by a total of 2.2 million barrels per day.

In normal times, this announcement would lead the price of oil to rise. After all, if the demand for a good remains unchanged and its supply decreases, basic economics would tell you that the price should rise. Not so in the oil market. After Opec+ announced its new round of production cuts, the price of oil fell from around $80 a barrel to around $74. ...  Continue reading

Last week’s Dublin riots saw the most riot police deployed in Irish state history, according to the country’s justice minister. While the immediate cause was the stabbing of several children and carers by a man who moved to Ireland from Algeria, unrest had been building for some time.

Before the riots, many outside of Ireland were unaware of just how radical the Republic’s experiment with migration over the past decade has been. The numbers speak for themselves. A full 2.8% of the population is made up of people who have moved to Ireland only in the last year. This means that if you walk down the average Irish street, one in 35 people will be newcomers to the country. ...  Continue reading

After the collapse of the Ukrainian counteroffensive over the summer, there are finally murmurings that it might be time to consider peace. This impulse has no doubt been increased by the explosion of tensions in the Middle East which emerged after the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October. These include not just the Israel-Hamas war itself, taking place in the Gaza Strip, but also attacks by Hezbollah in northern Israel and assaults on American bases in Syria and Iraq.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive itself has been a disaster. Kyiv’s plan was to push hard on the southern front, breaking through Russian defences and eventually taking the cities of Melitipol and Berdiansk. From here, it was thought that the Ukrainian army could regroup and march even further south, eventually taking Crimea.  ...  Continue reading

The United States Treasury has a problem on its hands. Due to the Biden administration’s enormous spending, this year the Treasury has issued net $2 trillion in new debt — over 8% of GDP. Due to its Quantitative Tightening (QT) programme, the Federal Reserve is currently selling down around $60 billion a month. Now, to add to the problems, recent data shows that foreigners are no longer buying, having sold net $2.4 billion in September.

The first issue that stands out is the borrowing itself, and the Fed’s unwillingness to absorb it. This is happening because the Biden administration has decided to ignore all sound practice when it comes to fiscal policy. Keynesian economists, who recognise that Government borrowing can sometimes be good for the economy, advocate that monetary policy and fiscal policy should work together. That is, the Government should borrow and spend when the central bank is lowering interest rates, and it should rein in borrowing and raise taxes when interest rates are rising.
 ...  Continue reading

The inflation numbers just released by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) have come as a welcome reprieve for a beleaguered government. The data shows that inflation fell substantially more than expected, dropping from 6.7% in September to 4.6% the following month, rather than the forecasted 4.8%.

Rishi Sunak’s government, whose standing in the polls has fallen since the sacking of former home secretary Suella Braverman and the subsequent Cabinet reshuffle, was quick to jump on the inflation numbers as a victory. In an email to supporters, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt claimed that “as of today, we’ve halved inflation.” The inclusion of references to Sunak’s five promises from the beginning of this year, one of which was to halve inflation, left one wondering what had happened to the other four pledges. ...  Continue reading

Strange things are happening in the global oil market. At the beginning of September, Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed their desire to limit oil production in a bid to push the price of oil up to $100 a barrel. At first, the market responded to the announcement as expected: by the end of September the price in futures markets hovered around $90 a barrel, a rise of around 6% since the start of the month.

Since then, however, oil futures have gone down substantially, and currently stand at just over $77 a barrel — a decline of 15% from where they were at the end of September. Yet the Saudi and Russian position has not shifted. This has led the Saudi energy minister to accuse speculators of driving down the prices. “It’s not weak,” said Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, referring to global demand for oil, “people are pretending it’s weak. It’s all a ploy.” ...  Continue reading

A new poll by the New York Times puts President Joe Biden significantly behind Donald Trump in five of the six key battleground states. The poll has Trump ten points ahead in Nevada, six ahead in Georgia, five ahead in Arizona and Michigan, and four ahead in Pennsylvania. Biden is only currently leading in Wisconsin — and even then, he is only leading by two points.

But this is only the beginning of the President’s problems. The war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip looks like it could shake up next year’s US election in profound ways. Americans predominantly support Israel, yet those who do not are both extremely passionate and politically important. The headline numbers show that 48% of Americans are more sympathetic to Israel, while only 10% lean towards Palestine. ...  Continue reading

Just when we thought we had heard the last of the sanctions designed to collapse the Russian economy, they get a new lease of life. The Kremlin has announced that it will make it more difficult for foreign companies to move their money from Russia. Moscow says that this is to ensure that the value of the national currency, the rouble, remains stable. But it seems more likely that the Russian government is playing games with companies whose assets are trapped in the country.

Back when economic sanctions were imposed on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, President Joe Biden famously stated that they would “turn the rouble to rubble”. Nothing of the sort happened. After a brief dip, the currency rebounded as energy prices soared and Russia’s exports increased enormously. Anyone who has ever modelled the rouble knows that it moves in line with the international oil price.  ...  Continue reading