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September 23, 2024 - 7:00am
It is unusual for Volodymyr Zelensky to be quiet — whether in his former life as a comedian and actor or now as President of Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian leader has been abnormally close-mouthed of late, notably reticent to go into detail regarding the “victory plan” he intends to present to US President Joe Biden and American officials this week.
Ukrainian sources have let on that the plan should “create such conditions and such an atmosphere that Russia will no longer be able to ignore the peace formula and the peace summit”, with references to Zelensky’s 10-point formula for a lasting settlement and his forthcoming conference in November.
But while Ukrainian officials may be keeping schtum on what is in the plan, they have been more communicative about what is not in there. Presidential Communications Advisor Dmytro Lytvyn denied claims in German media that it would include any partial ceasefire, stressing that “Ukraine is against any freezing of the war”. Similarly, Zelensky has pledged to avoid “frozen conflicts” akin to how low-level fighting in the Donbas rumbled on in spite of the Minsk Agreements. Senior presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak has also stressed that Kyiv does not envisage surrendering territory to Russia.
Zelensky has let on about the general topics, describing the broad points of his “victory plan” as pertaining to further security guarantees, the Kursk operation, “specific” advanced weapons and the joint development of Ukraine’s economy with its partners. There is additionally a fifth point for after the cessation of hostilities. Ukraine will use the plan and visit to continue pushing for approval to use long-range weapons to strike military targets inside Russia, after the issue was postponed until the UN General Assembly.
However, Biden is reportedly still unconvinced, with US officials wanting to see detailed plans of how Kyiv would use the missiles and how it would assist a broader military strategy. Indeed, it may already be too late for such permission to have any battlefield impact. Western officials believe Russia began moving aviation assets outside the long-range missiles’ ranges three months ago, slashing the number of potential targets, and there are too few Scalps and Storm Shadows for them to be deployed at volume.
Otherwise, Bloomberg has cited sources as saying the proposal also includes an official invitation to Nato at the end of the war, a clear pathway to European Union membership and a commitment to a sustained supply of advanced weapons. Another demand may be reducing the reliance on US-produced weapons by persuading the EU to allocate a significant portion of its Ukraine budget for military production within the country.
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Subscribe“Russia has spent two and a half years overcoming exactly that and is now winding down the clock until the US presidential election.”
Are they, though?
The narrative out of Moscow these days is that it doesn’t matter much who wins. They no longer have terms or a desire to negotiate. It’s heads down and onwards to the Dnieper, one way or another.
The only question is whether the Americans are foolish enough to join the conflict directly (that is Russia’s way of interpreting the use of long range missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia), in which case the game of chicken can take us right up to, maybe even into, nuclear war.
But Bethany and others who dread a Trump victory can rest assured. The election is already over. There are enough mysterious Garcias and Lopez’ in the swing state mail-in ballot boxes to assure total continuity of this doomed foreign policy.
The relief will come a few months after the election, when the Harris regime’s / MSMS news cycle will quietly be steered away from the Russian tanks driving through Dnipro, and towards whatever shiny thing is happening in March 2025. The flabby legs of most Americans are already tired from all the ‘Standing with Ukraine’ they’ve been doing, and the ink is already dried on the contracts to repurchase all theHimars, Patriots and M1 Abrams that will have been burned on the battlefield.
Cynical but probably true. Kamala won the war she was assigned to fight: the invasion of America.
Phew, good to know we can stop all this discussion and articles about the election. It’s already been decided!
I’m pretty sure when this is all settled both sides will claim victory. There’s the flakey reality of politics today, the meaningless posturing of the war, which makes a mockery of the dead.
According to Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, ex-Chief of Staff to Colin Powell – who we might assume has some good contacts – it was the Pentagon who directly refused Biden & Starmer’s maniac request to use long-range US weapons to target the Russian home land. With things kicking off in the Red Sea and the Gulf and Taiwan to consider they’ve not got the munitions. If this is true then we should all be very grateful to them.
As for Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’ – I think it much more likely he’s well aware that it’ll be turned down – the West simply doesn’t have and doesn’t make enough munitions to support it – that’s the bottom line here despite all the NATO grandstanding. What the rejection will provide Zelensky with however, will be a narrative to present to his people regarding why he has, with a heavy heart and all that, to negotiate away the Donbass to the Russians. it’s a version of the stab in the back that can see him climb down and, if he’s lucky, exit stage left before the far-right legions get to him.
It’s important to note the slanting of the narrative; e.g.:
Low-level fighting did not just mysteriously “rumble on” after the Minsk Accords; there was a deliberate Ukrainian policy to perpetuate the civil war. When Zelensky was elected by a landslide on the platform of bringing an end to the war, the far-right Ukrainian militia threatened him to his face that they’d string him up on a tree on the Maidan. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President François Hollande, and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko all said the sole purpose of the Minsk Accords was to allow Ukraine to prepare for war. It was Ukraine gearing up for a massive onslaught onto Donbas that precipitated the Russian intervention.
The phrasing “US and UK approval for Ukrainian strikes into Russia” is misleading. What Ukraine is asking for is for US and UK to program the missiles’ navigation systems – the US and UK would be hands-on involved in target selection. Without this involvement, the missiles cannot be properly targeted.
Finally, Zelensky’s “10-point formula” requires an unconditional surrender by Russia. It is not a serious diplomatic effort, and no “plan” on that basis stands any chance of traction.
Yes…entirely correct as usual.
Allegedly that Russia would regard such an attack as an attack by NATO, with consequences for the continental USA was made plain through “back channels”…hence the USA refusal to allow it…despite the UK being gung ho for it…but who knows really…
When you say ‘gung ho’ do you mean Boris Johnson, sounds like him:-)
New (new) labour seem pretty keen too…
“What Ukraine is asking for is for US and UK to program the missiles’ navigation systems – the US and UK would be hands-on involved in target selection. Without this involvement, the missiles cannot be properly targeted.”
They are entirely the Kremlin’s loudspeaker. The silly imputation the Ukrianians can not and have not been trained to operate the weapons they have been given is laughable.
Russia dares not impose any “consequences” on the continental US — that is the end of Putin should he do so.
Ukraine men are all dodging the draft wholesale. They all got Exemption Certificates. Worth the price. Any fighting is being done by numerous private Militias paid for by our political administration,the USA etc. In fact they don’t want any Ukie Turnip Heads getting in the way.
“there was a deliberate Ukrainian policy to perpetuate the civil war.”
There never was any civil war. There never was any large, even more than single digit percentage of the population of any oblast which wanted to be ruled by Russia, including Crimea. Strelkov was a Russian insurgent.
The only thing Kyiv did to “perpetuate the war” was then the same as now, it did not submit to Russian domination.
Why isn’t Zelensky preparing for Kamala’s ‘JOY’ Administration? With such positivity, what could go wrong?
Is he channelling his inner Octopus.
I’ve heard he’s out on the beg again.