Main Edition
US
FR
November 14, 2024 - 7:00am
Kemi Badenoch approaches the end of her first fortnight as Conservative leader with a boost in the polls. The latest survey of voter intention shows not just a Tory jump, but that the party is just ahead of Labour. It seems a long time since the humiliating defeat of the summer, and numbers like these will start to foster hope that winning back power in one term is possible. They may, however, mask the scale of the challenge ahead for the new Conservative leader.
The party’s position — at a 29% vote share — is not exactly the heady heights of victory. They are helped by Labour’s poor popularity and the spread of voting intention as British politics becomes more multipolar. The number does, however, suggest that the Tories are finding their way back among their natural supporters.
Part of the story of July’s election was that even dyed-in-the-wool Conservatives were staying home. This was evidenced by the fall, through the Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak eras, to the low 20s, a level you’d expect to be below their usual base. That the numbers are now ticking up suggests that some of these voters are returning. Perhaps they feel that they’ve given the party the kick it needed, or have remembered the realities of a Labour government. Either way, it provides a base from which Badenoch can build.
Much of this is driven by Labour’s economic decisions, and a Tory focus on the Government’s controversial tax and farming policies may win back more traditional support. So will going after Labour hard on law and order, as well as immigration, areas where the Conservatives typically perform well. Gradually, Tory-leaning voters might forget just how poor a record the party managed on these things in government.
However, there is a bigger challenge in numbers. While the Tories have gained, so too has Reform UK. This gives the British Right almost half the national vote share — but in a highly inefficient way. Projections on these numbers see the Tories gaining maybe a hundred seats but Reform only a handful. This might deny Labour an outright majority but doesn’t provide the numbers for a Right-wing coalition. A result like this could be a frustrating disappointment.
The position points towards a more short-term issue for Badenoch. So far, Reform has been a top-heavy party with influence in Westminster but little grassroots activity. Its decision-makers are working to change this now, targeting both the Welsh Senedd elections and scores of local councils. Often, these are in places where incumbent Tories have become used to controlling and have become lazy: it is the soft underbelly of the party.
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeMore the worry for Tories will be how poorly she’s performed at her first two PMQs, whilst Starmer has developed a sharpness and sense of humour not seen til now. They’ll be a few Tory backbenchers thinking, ‘ good grief we picked the wrong person’ already. She’s not as sharp and as smart as the mythology preceding her.
Now she may get better and PMQs is tough. (No US President would last 5mins if exposed to this level of weekly scrutiny). But you just wonder if all this come a bit too soon for Kemi.
Beautiful put-down of Farage yesterday too by Starmer, worth a watch. However our Nige loved it all the same as in his book all publicity is good publicity even if the butt of a joke. Egos just love attention.
You mean he’s managed to not call her Prime Minister yet?
I don’t think you watched the same PMQ’s as everyone else. He didn’t answer any of the tough questions because he couldn’t, so he simply looked weak and evasive, as usual. Furthermore he looks to be careering headlong into his very own poll-tax moment with the proposed IHT raid on farms. He’s fallen victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous of which is “Never get involved in a land war in Asia.” but only slightly less well known in this: “Never go in against the Salt of the Earth when the Nation’s food supply is on the line.”
What proportion of voters do you suppose actually watch PMQs? Not enough, I suspect, for anyone’s performance to make a happorth of difference.
I would agree. After all 40% of them couldn’t even be bothered to vote, I suspect the number who watch are a fraction of a shade of that. HoC performances really only make a difference to the members of the parties as a metric to judge their leaders and principle players. Labours fate will be sealed by sky high taxes, sky high energy costs, failing businesses and, if the farmers get their act together, no food on the shelves. It’s the things people can see in their daily lives that ultimately moves tbe political needle. That’s why Trump won and Harris lost, one spoke to reality the other ideology.
PMQs make a difference to how a leader is judged by their MPs – exactly. And her performance thus far would not inspire them to think she’s going to recover things. Remember 3 of last 4 Tory leaders removed by their MPs.
As regards ‘things people can see in their daily lives’, I think you are generally correct. But Labour has 5 years and just a chance that some tough calls now and some luck means a corner turned by 28-29 and few want to go back to Policy vacuums on the Right. As regards Trump – yes he won in part because of this, but unlike Labour he offers nothing of substance for the left behinds and little guy once the rage projection onto others dissipates, which it will.
She’s doing fine so far, however you’re correct that the conservatives are pretty efficient at defenestrating ineffective leaders. On labour, it isn’t looking good at the moment; high taxation, high energy prices and burdensome regulation is not a recipe for economic growth, only for increasing debt. Time will tell for both of them.
Having come second to Labour in eighty-seven seats and to the Tories in only a handful… I suspect those are the ones Nigel Farage will target, whatever he might say in the interim. He is, after all, a Politician “who can count”. I’d say you underestimate the chances of a discreet non-aggression pact to secure a triumph for the conservative and traditional folk who are still clearly a majority in the UK. Especially when Twotier-Freegears increasingly shambolic Government disintegrates under the weight of it’s own incoherence in a year or two’s time.
If he starts losing seats to Reform on one side and the Cheerleaders for Hamas on the other (highly likely) – he will be challenged at Conference next year, and by his own MPs the year after. I doubt he’ll see out his first term…
Neatly summed up. When Starmer and Reeves’ policies bite Labour will be seriously in the clag, with no 2nd line to dig them out. And I think your suggestion of a Tory Reform non-aggression pact is on the ball.
Much obliged. Starmer has arrived at his “Iraq War” moment in months not years, but the inexorable logic of Labour only winning when the leader nails the lid firmly shut on most of “his” membership and all “his” activists still prevails. Couldn’t happen to a nicer Knight…I might put a pony on Dawn Butler leading them into an election in 2027…just for fun..!
A bump is, by its very nature, Rise followed by a fall, or vice versa. Of course it won’t last!
Folk are going to be very surprised by 2028 when they see the infrastructure Reform has on the ground and the support to deliver votes. Now polling 26% vote share in Wales.
Most great enterprises spend years building the foundations for success, optimising the proposition, building core competencies, and then they hit breakthrough. Unsurprising that Yousef, Tice and Farage (all current or erstwhile business owners) know how to do this. This is one of their superpowers versus the current PPE political class, who couldn’t organise the proverbial trip to a brewery.
I don’t see how any internal moves against Badenoch would be any use in the case where Reform is outflanking the Tories on the Right. Who else would take her place?
If returned through By-Election, JRM would make a fine leader. Bone dry, a brilliant speaker ‘off the cuff’, and a thoroughly Good Egg with no skeletons in the cupboard.