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November 14, 2024 - 7:00am
Kemi Badenoch approaches the end of her first fortnight as Conservative leader with a boost in the polls. The latest survey of voter intention shows not just a Tory jump, but that the party is just ahead of Labour. It seems a long time since the humiliating defeat of the summer, and numbers like these will start to foster hope that winning back power in one term is possible. They may, however, mask the scale of the challenge ahead for the new Conservative leader.
The party’s position — at a 29% vote share — is not exactly the heady heights of victory. They are helped by Labour’s poor popularity and the spread of voting intention as British politics becomes more multipolar. The number does, however, suggest that the Tories are finding their way back among their natural supporters.
Part of the story of July’s election was that even dyed-in-the-wool Conservatives were staying home. This was evidenced by the fall, through the Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak eras, to the low 20s, a level you’d expect to be below their usual base. That the numbers are now ticking up suggests that some of these voters are returning. Perhaps they feel that they’ve given the party the kick it needed, or have remembered the realities of a Labour government. Either way, it provides a base from which Badenoch can build.
Much of this is driven by Labour’s economic decisions, and a Tory focus on the Government’s controversial tax and farming policies may win back more traditional support. So will going after Labour hard on law and order, as well as immigration, areas where the Conservatives typically perform well. Gradually, Tory-leaning voters might forget just how poor a record the party managed on these things in government.
However, there is a bigger challenge in numbers. While the Tories have gained, so too has Reform UK. This gives the British Right almost half the national vote share — but in a highly inefficient way. Projections on these numbers see the Tories gaining maybe a hundred seats but Reform only a handful. This might deny Labour an outright majority but doesn’t provide the numbers for a Right-wing coalition. A result like this could be a frustrating disappointment.
The position points towards a more short-term issue for Badenoch. So far, Reform has been a top-heavy party with influence in Westminster but little grassroots activity. Its decision-makers are working to change this now, targeting both the Welsh Senedd elections and scores of local councils. Often, these are in places where incumbent Tories have become used to controlling and have become lazy: it is the soft underbelly of the party.
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SubscribeMore the worry for Tories will be how poorly she’s performed at her first two PMQs, whilst Starmer has developed a sharpness and sense of humour not seen til now. They’ll be a few Tory backbenchers thinking, ‘ good grief we picked the wrong person’ already. She’s not as sharp and as smart as the mythology preceding her.
Now she may get better and PMQs is tough. (No US President would last 5mins if exposed to this level of weekly scrutiny). But you just wonder if all this come a bit too soon for Kemi.
Beautiful put-down of Farage yesterday too by Starmer, worth a watch. However our Nige loved it all the same as in his book all publicity is good publicity even if the butt of a joke. Egos just love attention.
You mean he’s managed to not call her Prime Minister yet?