November 7, 2024 - 11:50am

Towards the end of the US presidential election campaign, Republicans seemed resigned to losing white female voters in exchange for non-white men. “For every Karen we lose, there’s a Julio and a Jamal ready to sign up for the MAGA movement,” Republican Representative Matt Gaetz said at the beginning of this year.

As it turns out, this was a false choice. Donald Trump made historic gains among Hispanic men in 2024 and still won white female voters by eight points nationally. He led by seven points with this demographic in 2020 — a considerable uptick from his two-point lead with white women in 2016. White women were the largest subgroup of US voters this year when broken down by race and gender, comprising 40%, compared to the 35% represented by white men.

The win among white women had little to do with campaign outreach. The Trump campaign focused on ensuring turnout from its predominantly male and low-propensity base, with the former president appearing on numerous male-oriented podcasts in recent weeks, including The Joe Rogan Experience, while giving little focus to female voters. Trump was invited onto the female-hosted Red Scare podcast, but no interview ever materialised.

Some conservative commentators preemptively blamed white women for an expected Trump loss, and in the wake of the GOP victory liberal commentators made similar arguments. MSNBC’s Joy Reid argued that Kamala Harris lost because “black voters came through for Harris and white women voters did not”, adding that white women missed their chance to “change the way that they interact with the patriarchy”. Meanwhile, New York Times journalist Nikole Hannah-Jones accused white women of “enforcing a white ethnocracy” by not voting for Harris.

Sensing an opening, Democrats hammered the abortion issue throughout the campaign and targeted white and married women. One ad portrayed two white women voting for Kamala Harris and hiding it from their husbands, and other ads focused on abortion — despite the issue consistently polling well below inflation and immigration among voters’ priorities. In a recent NYT survey, white women listed inflation and the economy as their top issues, followed by abortion.

The abortion issue had seemingly little impact on Republicans’s performance with white women in this cycle. Trump’s lead for this group was the same in 2024 as it was prior to Roe’s overturning; in red states considering abortion ballot measures, Florida and South Dakota, the former president still won both the female vote and the white female vote. In the swing state of Arizona, where abortion was also on the ballot, Trump leads the white female vote by nine points and the total female vote by one point.

In part because of the abortion issue, white suburban women were long seen as a promising group for Democrats to make up for the loss of working-class white men. Sen. Chuck Schumer claimed in 2016 that “for every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.” That expectation did not come to pass in the 2016 election, nor in 2024. The enduring Republican tendencies of white women have proven difficult for Democrats to combat.


is UnHerd’s US correspondent.

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